while. some people think you don't get one of these sharp v bottoms, we may need a scare to give us a retest i think that's not where we are at this week. >> morgan, you'll have a take tomorrow on "squawk alley. >> you don't want to miss that. >> you also don't want to miss "fast money" which begins right now. "fast money starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," two big earnings movers. intel sinking, starbucks jumping after their reports. we're all over the conference calls and bring you the headlines as they break. intel's move comes after a massive rally for the chip stocks the group having its best day since march of '09 one technician says this is just the beginning of a bigger breakout. first, we start out with what lies beneath. it's been a relatively calm market and rebounded off the

december lows. companies seem to be holding up but what is lurking below the surface that could spell trouble ahead. first the dollar breaking above a key level as global fears loom plus the 10-year yield teetering at a level that's previously wreaked havoc on wall street and our old friend dr. copper down 20% from highs this year. even as earnings roll on and volatility seems to be subsiding, are these signs that there is trouble ahead for the markets? what do you do, guy? >> yes, trouble ahead. did you see the movie "jaws" in the movie theater? >> no. >> i did it's terrifying. this market to me is terrifying. by the way, b.k. and dan just look like they got out of al kra traz with that said, yes, there's trouble ahead. there's a couple of reasons. the fact that we went down so quickly, oversold conditions market participants somehow think the fed is no longer in

play and they hold some sort of hope there's going to be a deal done with the chinese. i think the fed is absolutely still in play. i don't think there's going to be any deal with the chinese of any magnitude any sign time soon in my world i think you see a retest of the december 24th low. >> i think i'll probably agree with my prison mate over here or with guy because look what happened today today there was really interesting things you had the european economic news that was horrible france, italy, european union, pmis were just terrible. not only that, look at what happened to the dollar and gold. the dollar was above 96 on the dollar index we know the dollar is the new vix, that's a problem for equities not only that, you saw gold and the dollar rising together, which tells me people are buying gold because there's political instability. so you name whatever you want to call it. political instability, economic slowdown, brexit, it's a whole potpourri but you have to be careful here. >> i think it's a smorgasboard

as well. i think there's something for everyone here. there's a lot of things holding up the bear suit then i look at fundamental earnings something like uri which is right in the heart of -- you know, it's almost entirely, not 100% but almost entirely north america, mainly u.s., and they're telling you things are good they are not seeing what the market is so afraid of their business is good, their margins are good, i think their valuation is good and we're seeing several companies that say that with airlines and others we're seeing a lot of companies saying things are good, even with the shutdown which everyone seems to think, i do, will be solved in the near term actually i think there's stuff to like on a specific basis, not a monolithic market. you can finding things where businesses are still really good what you don't like is when things go up too much. >> let's move over to a cornucopia of things that might take us back down toward those

prior lows this morning sorkin had a really good interview with the founder of who sells software to enterprises. he asked if this is affecting their business yet he says it's a little too early to say but we're getting very close to that. so really what i think is most important, if you want to focus on the consumer, they're still buying stuff you know what guy will say about that that to me is a backward looking thing. i care about enterprise spending because that's what's going to drive cap ex cycles and unemployment so if we don't have a resolution to our shutdown, if we don't have a resolution to china trade and have the backdrop of weak european data and asian data, then corporate spending will slow down and we'll have a real problem. bringing it back to the market, i think it's important to remember that every single time we have had a downdraft dating back to 2015, the summer of 2015, first quarter of 2016,

there's always been a retest of those pretty dramatic lows i'll just bring you back to january 2018 when we were -- on january 26th, the s&p 500 was up 7.5% ten trading days later, it was down 10% we obviously tested that one again. there's no reason to think we will not go back and test the 2400 level that's not all that bad. if it gets out a bunch of the tension, look at the snapback we've had. the second time it goes down there, if everything is not as bad as it seems, you're likely to have a constructive -- >> another thing on the poo-poo platter. you mentioned business spending. we will not get data on a lot of this because of the government shutdown what we are going to get is anecdotes. anecdotes from corporate conference calls even a string of anecdotes that doesn't mean data so we don't get a full picture anyway, which could add to the volatility of not knowing. >> right

obviously markets don't like that uncertainty the anecdotes we heard from davos from almost every single ceo interviewed was if the shutdown and the china trade goes on longer than it already has, and we're literally getting within days, a lot of research has shown if most workers go two paycheck cycles without pay, that's a big problem that's tomorrow. almost every sing 'le ceo sayin it's starting to hurt. this is what concerns me when you have a big rally it doesn't mean that we have to fall apart, but we had a massive rally off the bottom and nothing has changed. >> in the first six minutes of the show we've created a negative, wait for it -- >> i took the word right out of your mouth. >> you took it away from me. >> collage. >> it's not nearly as good as pastiche the extent that we see in

currencies and bond markets globally in developed countries, not the least of which our own, is disturbing. you could say the equity market doesn't care i would submit an equity market with a 19 vix should be more like a 25, 30 vix when in my world means the market goes down. >> let's talk about european banks and deutsche bank. a lot of nonperforming loans there and lots of concern about the european banking system. so again, for a market that's up off the lows, it's concerning. >> it's funny, it seems like a lot of volatility has been trepidation about what the fed will do or not do. you just said you think the fed is very much still in play we have a couple of charts of the 10-year. look at this level when it went through 270 and went straight almost to 2.50 and that's a level people didn't think was going to happen. that goes back to the taper tantrum back in 2013-14, the last time the 10-year was above 3% we got up there and everyone thought this was going to be a

rate tightening cycle that would go on because we had this economy that was working really well and they could do well together it broke down at the prior high and at the up trend from what people had been saying was a generational low in rates. to me if they start going lower, that's not good for risk assets. >> rates. >> if rates go lower. >> if that is a substantial resistance right there and we go lower and break the lows we made earlier this month, i don't see that positive for equities, even though it should be. >> is it a flight to quality, though >> typically i would say yes but look what happened to the staples today. they were the worst performing sector why? because they're heavily indebted that's another sign market participants are starting to say lower rates are not necessarily a good thing lower rates are a signal of a weaker economy cash flows won't be what they look like. heavily indebted companies can have a problem. >> but it's at this point in the

cycle. fed funds is at 2.25% after ten years. the last time the s&p topped out, the fed funds was at 5%. the time before that it was at 6% all those names that they dreamed up in 2012, '13, '14, for the next qe, get ready it's going to be a pastiche, a cornucopia and whatever the heck the rest of you were saying. >> mel is calling a time-out. >> you guys sound so bearish right now. if i were at home i wouldn't know what to do. no, seriously. you guys are so anything afternoon on the markets. >> i'm not bearish. >> you are seeing the brighter side of things. >> yes. >> but all the rest of you -- >> if you told me in one month we would have a substantive trade deal with china and the shutdown fixed, you would have a scenario you would start to discount some of the weak data we've seen and say it was

coincident to some of the things and people would start thinking we were going to have a 2.5%, 3% gdp and you'd buy equities into that. >> but as long as we have this going on, as long as we have the shutdown going on -- >> look, wilbur ross made some pretty ridiculous comments today, but i think he spoke the truth when he said the u.s. and china were miles and miles apart in terms of getting a deal done. larry kudlow walked that back because that's what this administration does. but i think that's instincts were correct i do think we're miles and miles away which means i don't think the market goes up any time soon it would be great to have someone that's been in the market for decades and seen markets like this before to be able to drill down in a meaningful way i wish we had somebody like that. >> actually we do. trade fears hang heavy on wall street and the trade secretary adding to worries right here on cnbc. >> we're miles and miles from getting a resolution and frankly, that shouldn't be

too surprising trade is very complicated. there are lots and lots of issues not just how many soybeans and how much l & g but even more important the structural reforms that we really think are needed. >> our next guest disagrees, says the tradewar drama could be resolved this quarter for more let's bring in art hogan, chief market strategist at national securities who apparently has been in the markets for decades and decades and decades. do you have an inside source in bay sieijin beijing? >> no. i think it's much more common sense. let's step it back with secretary ross he said we're miles away because we moved the goal post we started the trade war because we thought there was a trade imbalance with china and that's taken care of. china has made an offer to make that go away so moving the goal post is a different goal so that's the structural part of what he's talking about. we'd like fairer trade and less ip theft and that's going to be

more difficult to think we're going to ending this quarter and not have constructive conversation, at least say we're not escalating from here and are on a concrete path to getting this accomplished is i think a major step barring that, let's say we end this 90-day period and end the first quarter and we escalate, we raise tariffs, that's going to be a disaster everything you said today is probably not bearish enough. i get the sense it's an administration that uses this market as a scorecard for its job. i think by the end of this quarter, they want something accomplished they want good news on trade and they can do it they created this. they can make it go away. >> when you say resolved, is it just a truce and we'll talk more a truce on the tariffs i would say unless you say we are going to take back the tariffs, even a truce is uncertainty. it's uncertainty that causes businesses to delay whatever purchases they're going to make. >> look at the spectrum of concern. the best case scenario is we fix all of our problems by the end of the quarter china decides they're not going to steal intellectual property

anymore. there's structural changes in china and they have a program they have been working on for a decade to have 40% of the chinese manufacturing by the end of next year come from china and 70% by 2025. >> excuse me, art, we've got breaking news. president trump is speaking about the government shutdown. let's take a listen. >> i appreciate it, thank you. >> one of the ideas suggested is they open it, they pay a prorated down payment for the wall, which i think people agree you need you need the wall. in fact i see a lot of the democrats, almost all of them are saying, look, walls are good walls are good big difference from what you had two or three weeks ago and the vote, we had the vote on our bill which we won 50-47. that was our bill. but we got one democrat. it was 50-47 and we need -- as you know, we need to get 60 so we need democrat support.

we didn't get democrat support other than from actually a wonderful man, as you know, senator manchin. and he's doing the right thing for his people he's doing the right thing for west virginia, frankly and the other bill it was 52-44 and that included a lot of hurricane relief for a lot of different states so it's not something -- some of them really voted for the hurricane relief that was 52-44 but you need 60 so that didn't go anywhere so we knew they both were not going to go anywhere, we thought. and now mitch is negotiating with chuck schumer and we'll see what happens i think they just left a meeting. they just had a meeting. i think they're going out to see their people, but they just left so we had two bills. i think we did very well the republicans held except for two. the republicans held. two were not there so there were two nonvotes but even with two nonvotes, i

think they would have been good votes for us it's 50-47 we won. but we need 60 votes because of the 60-vote rule and so i just really wanting to thank the republicans for holding. again, on the other one, that was the opening up, that's 52-44 but you need 60 so it's a long way short. a lot of those votes were based on the fact that there was hurricane relief for certain states >> would you do temporary spending without money for the wall >> i wouldn't bow happy with it. but we have a lot of alternatives everybody -- look, for the most part people agree when i say everybody. i would say almost everybody agree, we have to have border security we have to have a wall in order to have border security. you cannot have border security without a wall we can play games and we can talk about technology, we can talk about drones flying around. you know, right now formed is an

8,000-person caravan, and the caravan is heading our way congratulations. we have another one. we stopped the first one, we stopped the second one i wouldn't say that tijuana is too happy. but they're happily living in tijuana right now. a lot of them have gone back, but we stopped them. but it's very tough. if we didn't have a wall in those areas it would have been very hard to stop them we have the military and the border patrol, they have done an incredible job and i.c.e. has done an incredible job all over the country, frankly we've removed thousands of ms-13 and others out of our country. but if we had a wall, we wouldn't have that problem, it would be great so we have a lot of alternatives but i'm just honored that almost all of the republicans voted for our bill our bill is the one that we were focused on we had almost all of the republicans so the end vote was 50-47. the democrats lost one that came over to our side so they pretty much held and we held

again, we were missing two republicans, they couldn't vote. they weren't here. >> do you think there's enough movement to end the shutdown >> i have to find out. after this meeting we'll finding out. right now mitch mcconnell is meeting with chuck schumer we'll have to see what happens they're meeting to see if they can work out something, maybe on a temporary basis where we start. but we have a lot of alternatives there are a lot of people that want this to happen. i'll tell you who wants this to happen, the military this is a virtual invasion of our country. of drugs, of human traffickers, of so many different things, of criminals. it's an invasion of our country. and the military wants this to happen, and the border patrol wants this to happen by the way, border patrol said all of the drones flying up in the air having a lot of fun flying drones all over the place, they don't mean a thing when they look down and see thousands of people rushing our border the only thing that works is a strong barrier or wall.

>> have you talked to nancy pelosi >> i have not. i haven't spoken to nancy pelosi, no no but i'm here you know, i haven't left except for a beautiful evening in iraq. i've been here for a long time >> mr. president, did you see wilbur ross said he doesn't understand why federal workers need help getting food do you understand? >> i haven't heard the statement. i do understand perhaps he should have said it differently. local people know who they are when they go for groceries and everything else. i think what wilbur is probably trying to say is they will work along. i know banks are working along if you have mortgages, the mortgagees, the folks collecting the interest and all of those, they work along. and that's what happens in time like this. they know the people, they have been dealing with them for years and they work along. the grocery store. i think that's probably what wilbur ross meant but i haven't seen his statement but he's done a great job, i will tell you that. >> i just want to know, aren't

you worried to leave american diplomats behind in venezuela? >> well, we're looking at venezuela. it's a very sad situation. it was the richest state in that area, that's a big, beautiful area, by far the richest and now it's one of the poorest places in the world that's what socialism gets you, when they want to raise your taxes to 70% you know, it's interesting, i've been watching our opponents, our future opponents talking about 70%. number one, they can't do it for 70%. it's got to be probably twice that number. but maybe more importantly, what happens is you really have to study and take a look at what's happened to venezuela. it's a very, very sad situation. so we have our eye very closely on venezuela. >> mr. president, if mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer come to an agreement, will you support the agreement? >> it depends on what the agreement is if it's reasonable, i would. >> even if there's no wall mo y money?

>> look, i have other all aetern afterno -- alternatives if i have to. we have criminals pouring into our country. and i'm not talking about the southern border. they don't stay there. they permeate all throughout the country, including places like wisconsin. a lot of -- a lot of different places that's the problem i say that we would cut our crime -- you know we're doing very well on crime rate compared to past years and past administrations. but i think our crime rate would go way down, and i know our drug rates, our drug -- what's happening is the drugs are pouring in and, yes, they come through the ports of entry but the big trucks come through areas where you don't have a wall and you have wide open spaces we have to have the wall you'd stop drugs you'd stop human trafficking i mean human trafficking where they tie up women and they put duct tape on their mouths and put them in the back seat of a car or in a van, they don't come

through a port of entry because the people at the port of entry are going to see that. that's not like hiding drugs in the engine or in the hubcaps and they have incredible in jeegeni ideas. if they were ever legit, they'd become very rich people. but what they do is go through the ports of entry with small stuff. but the big stuff comes through areas where you have nobody watching i mean you have hundreds of miles of open space and they go out there and they load it up with drugs or they have women in the back seat of the cars with duct tape all over the place it's a disgrace. and you don't catch them you don't even know the difference between mexico and the united states. they make a left turn after they go out 20 miles, 40 miles, 5 miles in some cases and less they make a left turn, they're in the united states then they do whatever they have to do. you need the wall. we could all play games or we could all talk about technology.

i know more about technology than anybody if you don't have the wall, the technology doesn't work. first of all, the wall is based on -- it's all based -- any t technology works only with the wall it's not going to work otherwise. in fact a lot of technology is put on top of the wall, the cameras and everything else. they literally put the technology -- they fasten it to the wall then you have drone technology and that's great in terms of what are you going to do, follow the people first of all, once they step into the country, you know what happens, right you know what they do? it's called -- what do they call it, you know they put one foot in our country, right and we got them. that's it. so the drones don't help us. we have to keep it out we have no choice but to have a wall or a barrier. if we don't have that, it's just not going to work. so it's very important to me one more question. >> what's your message to federal workers for missing another paycheck this week. >> i love them

i respect them i really appreciate the great job they're doing. you know, many of those people that are not getting paid are totally in favor of what we're doing because they know the future of this country is dependent on having a strong border especially a strong southern border because we have tremendous violence and crime coming through that border. we have tremendous drugs we have human trafficking. we have ms-13 and gangs pouring through those borders. if we don't strengthen those borders, we're going to have a big problem in the future. one of the people i blame is myself because the economy is so strong right now, stronger than ever before. today, today right now we have more people working in the united states than has ever worked in this country before. that's a great compliment. so i blame myself, okay. but the fact is people come up because our country is doing so well and they want to break through our borders. the fact is we want them to come

up we have a big -- we took in more people last year legally than we have in a long time because we need them because we have a lot of companies are coming into our country. so we need people coming in. i want people to come in, but they have to come in legally and they have to come in through merit. they have to be able to help companies. and if they don't help companies and if they don't help our country, we can't do that, folks. we just can't do that. >> why did you decide to agree with nancy pelosi -- >> well, it's really her choice. i would have done it in a different location, but i think that would be very disrespectful to the state of the union to pick some other place. i could have done it i could have gone to a big auditorium and gotten 25,000 people in one day, and you've been there many times, but i think that would be very disrespectful to the state of the union. so what she said i thought was actually reasonable. we'll have the state of the union when the shutdown is over. >> when do you think that's going to be? >> that i can't tell you that i can't tell you.

but we have a lot of alternatives, but we need border security okay thank you very much, everybody thank you. thank you very much. >> you've been listening to president trump speaking to reporters from the white house just moments ago for more let's bring in eamon javers at the white house who was there. eamon, certainly a wide ranging discussion about everything from trade to the government shutdown. >> that's right, and a striking tone there from the president of the united states regarding nancy pelosi right at the end, striking a very respectful, almost deferential tone after that dust-up about whether he would be permitted to give the state of the union on tuesday night in the house chamber. nancy pelosi says no, we're not going to do the state of the union until after the government shutdown was over and the president said it was very reasonable what she suggested after the tussel back and forth throughout the week of whether or not that would happen, so an interesting posture here by the president, perhaps indicating that he might be in more of a deal-making mindset going in but you heard the president there, melissa, continue to

hammer away on the idea that the united states as he feels needs a wall on the southern border to keep out drugs and crime, not signaling any wiggle room on that front, melissa. >> and the latest in terms of what the president has said, eamon is that senators mcconnell and schumer, they are meeting as we speak >> that's right. so what we got from the white house press office just before this comment from the president was a note from sarah sanders who says that they won't agree on any cr, continuing resolution that would keep the government up and running for a limited period of time unless it's got a substantial down payment on border wall funding. so the question is what is a substantial down payment it looks like the white house is signaling that they're willing to back off the border wall itself in order to get a short-term deal done to reopen the government, if they can get what they're calling a down payment on the wall. the devil is in the details on what a down payment actually looks like in congressional terms. >> or substantial too. eamon, thank you

eamon javers live from the white house for us tonight are we any closer, guy, do you think, when you read between the lines? >> no, i don't believe so. i find it interesting that the president thinks that grocery stores will take ious from people that might have happened back in mayberry back in the day but not in my town. >> i think we are closer i think schumer meeting with mcconnell is progress. i think it should be possible for those two to get a deal done he seems to be a little bit more conciliatory on the amount for the wall everybody needs to save face, right? >> he left a little bit of wiggle room there when he said substantial down payment and backed away from the total sum on the wall. >> i leave that, a, dumber than 15 minutes ago the other point is i'd be very surprised if there's another paycheck that's lapsed and this government is shutdown because i think it does damage to both sides and i think it needs to be reopened. >> i don't think we get close until the stock market tests

lows again he's a stock market president. that's the only thing that motivates him. once bitten, twice shy every time he says something conciliatory, the very next day we have some outrageous statement, so i don't feel like we're any closer. coming up, check out shares of intel getting crushed after the earnings report and this after a day when chips staged a massive rally. plus, it could be a make-or-break moment for another dow reporting stock next week. we'll tell you the name and why there's so much at stake we're live from times square in ne rhtft ts.y, much more "fast moy"ig aerhi

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on intel. the conference call is under way right now. the stock is down 7% josh lipton is in san francisco with the details josh. >> so, melissa, i quickly checked in with a couple of analysts to get their take chris roland he talked about the business unit ccg, chips for pcs, modems, $9.8 billion was weaker than expected apple is a customer there. chips for servers, $6.1 billion. that was also weaker than expected in part cloud customers not spending as much i asked why he remains a bull. he said, listen, they are still a leader in the data center and growing opportunities in memory and networking markets i also caught up with reuben roy

from mkm he thought intel was likely leaning on the side of conservatism as they did in 2018 he acknowledges he did expect a higher revenue guide for the full year. he said intel is guiding to 34% for the year bob swan, interim ceo, he is leading this call. he started off about talking about strong cloud demand, they gained share in modem but acknowledged there are some challenges as well take a listen to that. >> we expected a stronger finish fourth quarter revenue of $18.7 billion was up 9% but short of our expectations as a result of a dramatically weakening modem demand, lower overall growth in china, cloud service providers absorbing capacity, and a weakening pricing environment. >> bob swan actually started off the call with a question a lot of investors have.

who's going to have this job permanently. it's been seven months bob swan simply said the board continues to evaluate candidates and proceeding with urgency. for more on this, bob swan will be on cnbc tomorrow talking about all these issues and i'm sure a lot more so tune in for that interview melissa, back to you. >> when bob uses the word "dramatically slowing," josh, are you getting a sense what is behind that? is it the trade war, volatility in the markets what's driving this sort of drop-off that they saw >> yeah, it was interesting. i mean, listen, there are some specific issues and you heard him rattle off there but he did say that trade issues, weakened economy in china were perhaps getting worse, more pressure there than they initially forecast. as he said trade and macro concerns in china, his words, have intensified, so perhaps shedding somelight on their

forecast. >> josh bringing us an update on intel. dan, what do you make of this? >> kind of connected to that comment we made about work day and the enterprise environment in the a block here. so if corporations don't have a lot of visibility, then they're not going to be ordering much. josh mentioned modems, we know those go into smartphones. china, they did talk about swan did mention the impact of geopolitical situations. with the lack of invisibility, markets can turn on a dime, stocks can turn on a time. economies don't turn on a dime here's a cheap stock that a lot of people, myself, some other people on this desk, wanted to get behind into 2019 they just lowered guidance for the quarter we're in by 7.5% on sales. that's why the stock is down 6.5 and should be down 6.5%. >> obviously the space went nuts, right? and so -- >> so xilinx that has $3 billion in annual sales was up 18% and intel that has $70 billion in

annual sales is down 6%. i'd rather go with their outlook for 2019 than what xilinx had to say. >> that wasn't my question. >> you're saying all the chips rallied big -- >> yes if they had announced western digital we also see they're down a little but they didn't give back all of their gains for today on a little disappointing earnings if either of these had announced this a week ago, where do you think the stock would be >> i think you can look around look at lrcx, it was up 10%, 12%. it's still down 30% from its 52-week highs. xilinx made a new all-time high. i think it's on a short list of companies that will be bought too. >> sounds like dan watched the power pitch a few weeks ago. no, it's interesting western digital karen mentioned and you've right it was up 6.5% today and has given back a third

of that. you want to see what happens when a business gets commodityized. that's what's going on people will point to valuation and they pointed to that for the last $25 to $30. valuation doesn't matter when selling prices go down in terms of intel, not only did they lower revenue, they lowered eps guidance so i think this move to the downside is justified. >> intel's fallout after hours, chip stocks staging their best day. our next guest says there is one stock to play for an even bigger breakout let's get off the charts with ari wald over at the plasma. >> let's start with intel first off. you know, the big drop after hours. this puts the stock below its 50-day moving average. tomorrow morning keep an eye on 47.50. the stock should open below there. we could stage some sort of a rebound above there, then you

have a little bit of a silver lining for the bull case, but i think it's too early to really jump ahead of it as it stands in the charts, and here's why let's start with a bigger picture view of intel going back about a year now what's interesting to us is where this selling took place. right at $51 this has been the key resistance level since august now so as we sell off here, it looks like there's going to be some additional backing an filling needed here's the positive spin this stock is already in its basing process this stock made a higher low when the rest of the market was in freefall in december so i wouldn't get too downbeat either i just think there's some additional backing and filling needed before it can start moving higher again. that's really the case for semis overall. looking at the philadelphia semi conductor index, this is the great leading indicator of the market as it stands right now. we'd like to see this tart staro

move higher. here's an index that peaked ahead of the market, back in the first quarter of 2018. really starting to top out ahead of the market and broke down before it. now it's corrected i think where it's starting to base here is important this is an important retracement level of its bull market dating back to 2016 there's also some support here from last year so still have to deal with the 200-day moving average, more work needed, but some incremental strength here, some less bad selling, it's a start i still want to be selective here's this chart that stands out for us while the entire semi index is below its 200-day moving average, advance microdidn't have the same topping process as semis overall. it had the big breakout dating back to its 27 highs typically resistance becomes support. we're seeing a double bottom there. i think this is how you want to play it. this is relative strength.

we like leadership amd, best of a mixed semi conductor industry. >> ari, when you said that semis seem to be a leading indicator of the market, does that mean you think the market will go lower? >> i think the market is in a basing period here speaking to semis, i think improvement in semis will lead to improvement in technology and that will lead to improvement in the market overall we're of the view that the market is currently basing now, after this oversold bounce, i agree there should be some retracement here we might not have to make it all the way back down to the december low, but at least a higher low for the s&p as this price consolidation plays out in the first half of the year, i expect selling to get less bad, i expect cyclical sectors like semis to start to show improvement and then we can see a new bull market come the second half of the year. >> ari, thank you. good to see you. amd is an interesting name it's a stock that benefited from

intel being caught flat-footed when there was a turn-around in pcs last year. >> i agree with ari, it bounced up to the 200 day moving average. if you think the market is going higher, this is probably not a bad place to be. my concern is when you listen to what intel is saying, almost every single company out there has said something happened at the end of the year. we expected a stronger finish. something happened to the global economy in december, and that concerns me about all stocks >> we look for tells i think tomorrow you might get an interesting tellwith amd specifically if amd manages to close flat to slightly higher tomorrow, i think amd and earnings and to bk's point on the 29th i believe they report looks very interesting. if they can struggle off this intel news, they can say we've moved away and now we're the best in breed. starbucks shares, those shares are up 1.8%

the call is under way. we'll hear from the ceo in just a few minutes. plus square on a tear. that stock up 7% today, nearly 50% in the last month. are any of the traders buying this breakout? finding out when "fast money" returns. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your manufacturing business. & so this won't happen. because you've made sure this sensor and this machine are integrated. & she can talk to him, & yes... atta, boy. some people assign genders to machines. and you can be sure you won't have any problems.

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert with starbucks. the stock is rallying after hours. kay rodgers is back at headquarters to tell us what the ceo had to say. >> the coffee giant out with

beats on the top and bottom lines. same-store sales increasing 4% globally and 4% in the u.s. for the second quarter in a row and 1% in the very important market of china ceo kevin johnson said the company continues to execute on its strategic priorities take a listen. >> we shared with you our strategy to streamline the business, drive growth in the key markets of u.s. and china, expand our global reach through the global coffee alliance, while simultaneously returning significant capital to our shareholders the strategy is working, as evidenced by our q-1 results, and we remain confident in the longer term outlook for the business >> johnson also said on china the company will continue to learn and adapt as it creates a broader coffee culture, expands its presence in new and existing cities there as you can see right there, the stock is higher by around 2%, guys back to you. >> has the company basically put to bed concerns about the slowdown in china?

>> that's what i seem to be hearing. i had a phone call with the president of international and he said we've proved we can evolve so they don't seem to be pulling back on any plans or expressing any concerns right now. >> okay, kate, thank you kate rogers back at headquarters on starbucks here. do you like it >> actually yeah you've had a two or three year basing period or consolidation period that we've broken out we were concerned when schultz left that maybe perhaps the company wasn't going to be able to grow and adapt like they are, but the fact that they're saying they're seeing some growth in china, the fact that they're seeing some growth in the rest of the company, i actually do like it quite a bit here. >> yeah, given those comps here in the u.s. and if they're not as downbeat as you expect them to for china, this could be on a sling shot on the way back up, especially given the strength it's shown the last several months. >> it's not like it's super cheap. it should have a premium multiple, does have a premium multiple it's a great company, but it's

not overly -- it's fine, i think it's just fine the multiple is a little high. there is yield, that's not enough to make me wanting to -- it's okay. >> yeah, it will run into trouble if the all-time high was 70ish. it reminds me what's going on with nike. sold off, coming back now in the face of a lot of bad news. but global comps up 4% when the street was looking for 2.9% with margins hanging in there is a pretty good story. quick programming note here, kevin johnson, the ceo of starbucks, will join "squawk on the street" tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. eastern time. coming up, industrial is one of the best performing sectors this year, up nearly 15% in the last month is there an even bigger rally this year? plus payment stocks paying up and soaring since january we'll ll yteou how much higher they can go. much more "fast money" still ahead.

welcome back shares of square surging after an analyst reiterated a buy rating pointing to a new growth opportunity. he also noted it was another step in the right direction as square continues to disrupt the big banks. the stock is up a whopping 46% from december lows does it have more room to run? what do you think, karen >> it's a great company, right they're very innovative. it's so much more, it's all the software, square capital, very

innovative however, mid-teen times revenue, a lot has to go really, really, really right for them to grow into what's already being factored in. so i wouldn't buy it on this it shouldn't have been at 100 when it was so it didn't deserve to be there. i think this is too expensive here great company. >> it feels like no matter when you would have bought it if you bought into the fundamental thesis, it's the same thing. you're going to have to hold your nose and do it because they are disrupting so many parts of financial services i just don't think it's going to be an independent company for that long because they're moving from small, medium-size business and adding more and more stuff. >> they also have competition now. >> but i think they're firmly entrenched in a certain segment of the market that's been underserved by big banks. >> they found a niche and are exploiting it. to me it's the classic silicon valley mentality at the top with jack running it that's satisfying we're disrupting, disrupting, disrupting, and you tend to ignore the fundamentals.

at some point the fundamentals will matter. it will be too expensive but it doesn't seem like today. >> you know what you could buy for half the valuation which is on the verge of an all-time high, reports that dan nathan has done some on -- >> paypal. >> that's twice tonight. >> that we've gotten in your head. >> paypal is correct if you look at the move that that stock has seen into earnings, maybe that's a better play. >> you just said about to make a new all-time high. we talked about work day and xilinx i don't think you can discount stories like that in this sort of market where so many stocks are below their 200-day moving average. what i'm saying is you look for prior breakout levels and that's where you buy these stocks when you get them you don't buy xilinx on a day like today, but you do whenever guy does a pass pitch -- >> fast pitch. next week is the busiest

week for earnings and it could be make or break for one dow stock. there's jim talking to uri, united rentals, after that stock soared today karen was just talking about them catch that interview at the top of the hour. me're live at the nasdaq in tis square much more "fast money" right after this everyone, look at your phones. the design thinking, the digital engineering, security, blockchain, and we will be first to market! yes. when we do we launch? unfortunately, in 2 or 3, hours. why the delay? cognizant is helping banks use digital technologies at scale to advance speed to market.

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welcome back to "fast money. caterpillar kicking off industrials earnings next week trying to dig itself out of a

rough 2018 dan is over at the plasma to break down the action. >> yeah, kind of important, mel to the week started off with their commentary there's been some volatility the last year or so but the options market is saying a 5% move the last four quarters it's been about 4% here's one, a company obviously gets about 60% of their sales outside the u.s. we know the dollar has been very firm and it looks like possibly set for a breakout you know, that would be an adverse headwind for cat, obviously global growth a big concern. what did intel just tell us? there's concerns about global growth as it relates to china. look at this stock it's been in a very, very well defined downtrend all the way down from its 2018 highs, down about 15% from that. it's had a nice 14% bounce off the lows i think that was the average move most stocks in the s&p 500 have but it's right here and banging

up against some technical resistance i'm no ari wald but that's what it looks like to me. if you're looking at this chart, look at the five-year char, this was a massive breakout in 2017 after a very long break. and then the thing doubled so here's that well defined downtrend. here we are at the resistance. we know it has support down there at the breakout level. to me it's going to take a very big beat and raise with just commentary that is unexpected to get this thing breaking out to the upside in my opinion i suspect a lot of stocks like this, if they just give okay guidance and okay results, that they're going to consolidate a little bit if they get a guy down, you're going to be shooting first and asking questions later. >> he just power pitched it and now you got me saying it, fast pitched it yesterday would you have voted for it? >> i agree with my cell mate in this one, i would sell this one. >> for options action, check out the full sw moowhotorr at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. final trades up next

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$7 or $8 you can wait a little. i think there's value here. >> amd is going to be positive today, just telling you. >> that does it for us see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 "mad money" starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to educate, but it's to teach and coach you. so call me at no. or tweet me @jimcramer. right now, right now behind the scenes, practically every money manager out there is wondering if it is time to swap out of the safety stocks. >> sell, sell, s