connect. >> we've been looking at the "new york times. maybe february 15. maybe february 28. a couple of weeks does matter. maybe it looks more likely. >> that means in the last hour, still negotiations on as things leak out but nothing firmly decided yet, perhaps why we see this delay of at least an hour >> okay. you know, steve grass down at the exchange for us. i'll go join tyler matheson to pick things up as we wait for the president. >> i'll point out if it is february 28th to which the government would remain open, that's one day ahead of march 1st which is also a preshant date as kelly mentioned, we're waiting for him to speak from the rose garden. a chilly bit of a rose garden, i might point out.

sources tell cnbc the president is considering a short-term deal, whether it's three weeks, to february 28th, we don't know, to reopen the government we'll find out in just moments kayla tausche on capitol hill and bob pisani at the new york stock exchange let's go to eamon at the white house. eamon? >> here is what we're getting. not much information but one administration official i can tell you i'm being told the end date for this deal will be february 28th. it will be in effect a clean cr to reopen the government for three weeks plus until february 28th the official telling me that ultimately, from the white house's perspective, there will be money that could be spent on a new wall in this deal. we have to see how they finessed the details because democrats on capitol hill said they won't do any deal that includes any money for a new wall so that might, some of that might explain the delay that we've seen here in getting the

president out to this podium in the rose garden and reporters have been in there now for a half hour's time waiting for the president. all of this is fluid and temporary until the president actually comes out and tells us what the deal is, tyler. >> part of this deal embedded in it on the senate side was a tacit willingness of the democrats to at least debate the possibility of funding some portion of new construction border wall. have you heard any of that kind of talk and that that might be the fig leaf or lubricant that gets the deal done >> i'm told that there will be money in this continuing resolution that could be spent for new wall, that's just one official saying that but i wouldn't be relaying it to you if it wasn't somebody well plugged in here.

what does that mean, could be spent? there will be money. a lot of budgetary tricks in this town and might be some nuance here we're not getting yet and we have to wait for that and of the politics of this will all be about who's trying to declare victory. you can expect democrats in capitol hill and the president here at the white house will both declare a victory simultaneously and sometimes, that's the sign of the best possible deal you can get in washington, dc >> we have some physical movement right now there are members of the cabinet, as well as jared kushner, the president's son-in-law emerging, kind of formed the crowd there for where the president will then join the press outside of the white house. kayla tausche also standing by kayla, again, maybe they also might be working on how long exactly this temporary reopening will last. >> yeah, and republicans were pretty frank that they were allowing the president to negotiate this on their behalf because there have been so many instances in the past where they have believed they reached a deal with democrats across the

aisle only to have a piece of legislation go to the white house and have it be met with consternation from the president. so it is very clear that they are not necessarily privy to the negotiations the white house is holding with democrats that's what i am getting loud and clear from republican aides who say that they believe they know what the president was on board with when he went into these conversations and that is short-term bill to reopen the government for three to four weeks and the agreement to debate appropriations for the department of homeland security via conference during that time period that basically means that the house and the senate will go head to head they'll try to hash out their differences on the spending bills that they have put together and see where they come out and have an honest brokerage of exactly what they want on behalf of their constituents, the border funding to look like and that can sometimes be a very contentious process but it is an open and healthy debate. sometimes it is a very long

debate but that is at least what republican aides believe the president went into those conversations negotiating. but again, we will see >> all right, kayla, thank you very much. and we'll be watching just as you will as we move through this hour as we look at several of the cabinet members including wil bur ross, secretary of state pompeo and terry purdue just a few moments ago. kelly? >> we're watching the markets as well the dow is up more than 200 points still off session highs. bob pisani is watching this as well, bob. bringing any sign of what kind of the markets are focused on here >> i can tell you, there is, one area of question is there's not a specific news event other than this one happening here late in the day that moved the market but talking to traders, a lot of optimism about next week think about what's happening when you see airports starting to have delays, the traders down here say they're going to end

this not putting up with another week of airport delays from their constituents screaming next week, we're talking about a high level delegation coming in from china. the vice premier coming on wednesday and thursday and for good reasons or not good reasons, the market believes some kind of deal can happen of course, it's very complex and wilbur ross implied that but everybody believes the fed is going to be quiet. some reasons for optimism next week kelly? >> bob pisani, thank you dow up 210 points. john harwood also standing by, to weigh in on what this process is now going to look like. >> kelly, i just wanted to lay out again what we think is going to happen. this is from nancy pelosi. we were in a lunch with her and she took a phone call from chuck schumer and is preparing for this to happen and the idea is it's a short-term clean extension of funding and remember, the clean extension of

funding, they talked about in december had $1.3 billion for border security but not for a wall we believe this will extend a clean cr, continuing resolution funding and they will have a conference on the dhs spending bill as kayla alluded to and they'll be back and forth on money for border security. told me our bill has $49 billion for the department of homeland security money we can talk about for border security but non-wall border security money. remember, the administration says on defense department land can use defense department money, repurpose defense department money for border structure. that is possible that's what e eamon's white house source will be but we believe the president is backing down from his position for new border wall money. i want to mention one other

issue that's relevant to markets and steve grass mentioned it a few moments ago. i was very struck in this luncheon conversation with nancy pelosi how positive she was about the u.s. canada mexico trade deal there's a lot of speculation that democrats would be opposed to what the president wanted she said this has been a lower temperature conversation and praised robert lighthizer. that was a positive signal on an issue that long-term may be more significant to markets and that's the three country trade deal to supplant nafta. >> let me understand correctly possible in this would-be compromise is the idea that defense department money would be available to build border structures on defense department or government-owned land did i understand you >> the defense department has been telling congress over the

last several months that they are exploring their authority to use defense department money on defense department owned land. for example, on the gold water range in arizona it's about 30 miles, for example. they have done a feasibility study of a border structure on along the gold water rain. it's possible that that could be some of the new law that they're talking about. but the congress in this deal, i believe, will not authorize money for a new wall that doesn't mean that because money is fungiable, that they might be able to take some of those actions. they said in a letter in december that the gold water range was a source of drug trafficking and people crossing the border and both anti-narcotics and for human safety purposes, we need to

construct a wall democrats in congress objected to that, but that could be one place where they go. >> thank you very much, john let's bring in brian gardner to join the conversation. he's senior vice president and washington research analyst with kbw. welcome, and i warn, obviously, when the president appears, we may have to break into the conversation rather abruptly to take those remarks as the ground is moving beneath us here, brian, what do you think caused the various sides to come together to lead us to where we are this afternoon at 2:10 p.m. eastern? >> i think this has been a death by a thousand cuts it's been accumulation of government workers not getting paid that impact on the economy people talking about the airport slowdowns today. although, i would point out these are at airports that are regularlysuffering through delays, being laguardia, newark, and atlanta. >> you can say that again. >> yeah, so i think people overdo the airport angle on this let me give you another

alternative to that, tyler, which is a "washington post" article out this morning which had irs workers not showing up and not taking calls we're going into tax season and you want to get constituents and taxpayers riled up and angry just have them sit on the phone when they call to the irs as they're trying to get their tax questions answered and no one is picking up the phone i think that, those are the type of events that resonate back in washington and really start to lead to this deal, more so than the airport issue. >> i saw that too, brian 26,000 irs workers recalled but 14,000 couldn't be reached or exempt because of hardships, so that's more than half of those workers that at least the article makes it sound like art on the job and the air traffic controllers that led to this mess today. >> you know, if you want to get

a constituent riled up, having a problem with the irs and their tax returns at the beginning of the year, boy, to me, that is a recipe to really start stirring the pot, getting the populous upset about the shutdown that hits home real close. >> that's a bipartisan thing >> absolutely. >> a taxpayer, myself included, i don't care if i can't get my refund, i'm ticked off at both sides for it. it's one thing i think everybody could agree with on that point >> one more thing we haven't had yet. it hasn't occurred yet but i think it was in the distance is the possible shutdown of the court system, which was coming february 1 i think that was on the horizon for people the court system has continued to operate we get to february 1 and the court systems start shutting down, you have conflict litigations and criminal trials that would shut down i don't want to overstate what impact that had but i do think people were starting to look out

and seeing how the shutting down of the court system really impacts, at a symbolic level, the total dysfunction of government and then two, the impact it does have on people's lives and the economy more broadly. >> if we're talking about at the outside from the reporting so far, opening this up for another month or so, do you feel confident that we are not going to have another shutdown at that point? >> i wouldn't make that prediction anybody that makes that prediction really doesn't know what the environment is like in washington these days. it's totally unpredictable you know, kelly, if we were having this conversation two or three years ago or let'sgo bac 12 years ago into another republican administration, i would say with some confidence, no, i don't think there's going to be another shutdown, we'll continue to kick the can down the road in today's environment, it's totally unpredictable and we don't play by the old rules, so i can't tell anybody with any confidence that there won't be another shutdown i think it's a fool's errand to

try to predict that at this point. >> that's the exact opposite of what you said not 15 minutes ago. >> i believe if they reopen the government for three weeks, after all the pain and declining poll numbers for the president and republicans in congress, i think it will remain open after that i understand brian's point, it's an unpredictable environment and we are in new territory in a country in terms of our politics, but mitch mcconnell once said, there's no education second kick of the mule. he's got a second, third, and fourth kick from the mule with this shutdown and i think this is a point in which republicans would not stick with the president on this subject. remember, the republicans control the congress for two years. did not build the wall, even though the president had made this claim now he's upped his game. nancy pelosi has said no republicans have taken a brutal beating in public opinion. the president specifically, i don't think they're going back there. >> just to your point, and we

understand the frustrations of the republican congressman, of course, but this isn't really about them because they didn't do anything on it for the last couple of years. this is ultimately about the constituents and some of them probably have a deep divide in how their constituents feel about this but there is a group who feels very strongly about this wall and feel like their representation hasn't delivered for them isn't that how we got to this point? >> this is really about a constituency of one person this is about the president. the president has shown an ability to keep his base with him under adverse circumstances. so if he is willing to recognize that this is a losing game for him and say he wants to do it, he does have to worry about what happens on his right wing, you know, ann coulter and rush limbaugh and the people who got him to back away from a deal in december, what are they going to do but i was just on my phone while brian was talking and saw that

there's more and more talk in conservative media of, okay, forget congress, we'll do it on our own and whether that's by repurposing defense department money or some sort of executive order that isn't an emergency declaration, that's a way for the president not to get stuck in this traffic. >> if that is the narrative that they've won something here in repurposing, then i think the odds of a future shutdown will certainly diminish however, if it's perceived the president lost ordidn't get enough out of this, let's watch conservative media, i think john's pointing to the exact right people, the ann koulters and the rush limbaughs of the world, see next week from the weekend and what the narrative is like there and the mood of the base is like if the president thinks he lost in this, vis-a-vis his base, then, you know, again, i'll go back to my earlier point

>> we're going to interrupt. i'm sorry, brian, we'll have to interrupt. the president appears at the podium let's listen very carefully to the precise wording of what he says >> thank you very much, my fellow americans i am very proud to announce today that we have reached a deal to end the shutdown and reopen the federal government. as everyone knows, i have a very powerful alternative, but i didn't want to use it at this time hopefully, it will be unnecessary. i want to thank all of the incredible federal workers and their amazing families who have shown such extraordinary devotion in the face of this recent hardship. you are fantastic people you are incredible patriots. many of you have suffered far

greater than anyone but your families would know or understand and not only did you not complain, but in many cases, you encouraged me to keep going because you care so much about our country and about its border security again, i thank you all americans, i thank you you are very, very special people i am so proud that you are citizens of our country. when i say make america great again, it could never be done without you. great people in a short while, i will sign a bill to open our government for three weeks until february 15th. i will make sure that all employees receive their back pay very quickly or as soon as

possible it will happen fast. i am asking senate majority leader mitch mcconnell to put this proposal on the floor immediately. after 36 days of spirited debate and dialogue, i have seen and heard from enough democrats and republicans that they are willing to put partisanship aside, i think, and put the security of the american people first. i do believe they're going to do that they have said they are for complete border security and they have finally and fully acknowledged that having barriers, fencing, or walls or whatever you want to call it, will be an important part of the solution a bipartisan conference

committee of house and senate lawmakers and leaders will immediately begin reviewing the requests of our homeland security experts and experts they are and also, law enforcement professionals who have worked with us so closely, we want to thank border patrol, ice, and all law enforcement. been incredible. based on operational guidance from the experts in the field, they will put together a homeland security package for me to shortly sign into law over the next 21 days, i expect that both democrats and republicans will operate in good faith. this is an opportunity for all parties to work together for the benefit of our whole beautiful

wonderful nation if we make a fair deal, the american people will be proud of their government, proving we can put country before party we can show all americans and people all around the world that both political parties are united when it comes to protecting our country and protecting our people. many disagree, but i really feel that working with democrats and republicans, we can make a truly great and secure deal happen for everyone walls should not be controversial. our country is built 654 miles of barrier over the last 15 years and every career border patrol agent i have spoken with and told me that walls work. they do work no matter where you go, they

work israel built a wall. 99.9% successful won't be any different for us. they keep criminals out. they save good people from attempting a very dangerous journey from other countries thousands of miles because they think they have a glimmer of hope of coming through wi with a wall, they don't have that hope. they keep drugs out and dramatically keep efficiency by allowing us to patrol far larger areas with far fewer people. it's just common sense walls work that's why most of the democrats in congress have voted in the past for bills that include walls and physical barriers and very powerful fences the walls we arebuilding are not medieval walls

they are smart walls designed to meet the needs of front line border agents and are operationally effective. these barriers are made of steel, have see-through visibility, which is very important and are equipped with sensors, monitoring and cutting edge technology, including state-of-the-art drones. we do not need 2,000 miles of concrete wall from sea to shiny sea. we never did we never proposed that we never wanted that because we have barriers at the border where natural structures are as good as anything that we can build. they're already there. they've been there for millions of years our proposed structures will be in predetermined high risk

locations and specifically identified by the border patrol to stop illicit flows of people and drugs. no border security can work without a physical barrier it just doesn't happen at the same time, we need to increase drug detection technology for our manned ports of entry the equipment is obsolete and tired. this is something we've all come to agree on and will allow for quicker and safer commerce these critical investments will improve and facilitate legal trade and travel through our lawful ports of entry. our plan also includes desperately needed humanitarian assistance for those being exploited and abused by coyotes,

smugglers, and the dangerous journey north. the requests we have put before congress are vital to ending the humanitarian and security crisis on our southern border absolutely vital will not work without it this crisis threatens the safety of our country and thousands of american lives criminal cartels, narco-terrorists transnational gangs like ms-13 and human traffickers are brazenly violating u.s. laws and terrorizing innocent communities. human traffickers, the victims are women and children maybe to a lesser extent, believe it or not, children. women are tied up, they're

bound, duct tape put around their faces, around their mouths and in many cases, they can't even breathe they're put in the backs of cars or vans or trucks. they don't go through your port of entry they make a right turn, going very quickly they go into the desert areas or whatever areas you can look at, and as soon as there's no protection, they make a left or a right into the united states of america there's nobody to catch them there's nobody to find them. they can't come through the port because if they come through the port, people will see four women sitting in a van with tape around their face and around their mouth. can't have that. and that problem, because of the internet, is the biggest problem, never been like this before, but you can imagine it's at the worst level, human

trafficking, in the history of the world. this is not a united states problem. this is a world problem. but they come through areas where they have no protection, they have no steel barriers, where they have no walls and we can stop almost 100% of that the profits reaped by these murderous organizations are used to fund their maligned and destabilizing conduct throughout this hemisphere. last year alone, ice officers removed 10,000 known or suspected gang members like ms-13. as bad as them horrible people. tough, mean. sadistic in the last two years, ice officers arrested a total of 266,000 criminal aliens inside

of the united states, including those charged or convicted of nearly 100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes, and 4,000 homicides or as you would call them, violent vicious killings can be stopped vast quantities of lethal drugs including meth, fentanyl, heroin, and cocaine are smuggled across our southern border and into u.s. schools and communities. drugs kill much more than 70,000 americans a year and cost our society in excess of $700 billion. the sheer volume of illegal immigration has overwhelmed federal authorities and

stretched our immigration system beyond the breaking point. nearly 50 migrants a day are being referred for medical assistance they are very, very sick, making this a health crisis as well it's a very big health crisis. people have no idea how big it is unless you're there our backlog in the immigration courts is now far great er than the 800,000 cases you've been hearing about over the last couple of years. think of that though 800,000 cases because aobsolete the laughing stock all over the world. our immigration laws, all over the world, they've been there for a long time, the laughing

stock, all over the world. we do not have the necessary space or resources to detain, house, vet, screen, and safely process this tremendous influx of people. in short, we do not have control over who is entering our country, where they come from, who they are, why they're coming the result for many years is a colossal danger to public safety we're going to straighten it out. it's not hard. it's easy, if given the resources. last month was the third straight month in a row with 60,000 apprehensions on our southern border. think of that. we apprehended 60,000 people that's like a stadium full of people, a big stadium.

there's many criminals being apprehended but vast numbers are coming because our economy is so strong we have the strongest economy now in the entire world. you see what's happening we have nowhere left to house them, and no way to promptly remove them. can't get them out because our laws are so obsolete, so antiquated, and so bad without new resources from congress, we will be forced to release these people into communities. something we don't want to do. called catch and release you catch them, even if they're criminals, you then release them and you can't release them from where they came, so they go into our country. and then end up in places you

would least suspect. and we do as little releasing as possible, but they're coming by the hundreds of thousands. i have had zero democrat lawmakers volunteer to have them released into their districts or states and i think they know that and that's what we're going to be discussing over the next three weeks. the painful reality is that a tremendous economic and financial burdens of illegal immigration fall on the shoulders of low income americans including millions of wonderful patriotic law-abiding immigrants who enrich our nation as commander in chief, my highest priority is the defense of our great country we cannot surrender operational control over the nation's

borders to foreign cartels, traffickers, and smugglers we want future americans to come to our country legally and through a system based on merit. we need people to come to our country. we have great companies moving back into the united states and we have the lowest employment and the best employment numbers that we've ever had. there are more people working today in the united states than have ever worked in our country. we need people to come in to help us, the farms and with all of these great companies that are moving back, finally, they're moving back, people said it couldn't happen it's happened. and we want them to enjoy the blessings of safety and liberty

and the rule of law. we cannot protect and deliver these blessings without a strong and secure border. i believe that crime in this country can go down by a massive percentage if we have great security on our southern border. i believe drugs, large percentages of which come through the southern border, will be cut by a number that nobody will believe. so let me be very clear, we really have no choice but to build a powerful wall or steel barrier. if we don't get a fair deal from congress, the government will either shut down or february 15th again or i would use the

powers afforded to me under the laws and the constitution of the united states to address this emergency. we will have great security and i want to thank you all very much thank you very much. >> the president just finishing his remarks to a rose garden gathering of press and administration officials in which he says that he is willing to open the federal government for a period of three weeks until i believe it was february 15th after 36 days of what he called spirited debate he says that he has noticed on both sides of the aisle a desire for complete border security and that both sides in his words

have acknowledged that barriers can be a part of that solution in the meantime, a critical part of this, kayla tausche, will be who is with us as well, and eamon javers at the white house on capitol hill and brian gardere and public strategist with morgan stanley. a key part of this whole and john harwood, i didn't mean to exclude you, is a bipartisan conference that will include, i gather, the leaders of the house and senate on both sides of the aisle to review the recommendations of dhs, ice, customs and border patrol, among others to come up with a more comprehensive solution in three short weeks, it is said, to push forward his plans for border security kayla? >> reporter: tyler, it is that conference that could be very contentious. the president signaling he expects both parties to be

sending him a homeland security spending package shortly that he will sign. although, he did say that if at the end of those three weeks, it does not include some sort of barrier at the southern border, he reserves the right to declare a national emergency over the border or shut down the government but it should be noted there was quite a lot of real estate in that speech that gave nods to democrats, even if he didn't mention them by name he talked about the need for a smart wall, which the number three house democrat james clyburn has mentioned many times in the last several days the need to modernize and rebuild ports of entry, which is something that speaker pelosi specifically has suggested in the last several days and he said that the country does not need 2,000 miles of concrete wall we never did, even though recently as december 31st, he said he had not abandoned the idea for a concrete wall, but certainly, seeming to give democrats quite a bit of give there in that speech by

mentioning several of their talking points although he does seem to be reserving certain avenues for the next three weeks, if in fact, he does not get that money. >> eamon, february 15th. didn't go the full month as sounded like at some point it gives three weeks to come up with an agreement and for this conference committee to present him with some options. what did you learn from his announcement that was different from what we thought we knew going into it? >> a couple of things. one, to kayla's point, it is striking to hear this president say we don't need 2,000 miles of concrete wall from sea to shining sea. we never did that flies in the face of the tone of the president's rhetoric over the past several years and will be noted in conservative circles. i was told by a source during the course of the president's speech that that date of february 15th shifted from february 28th within the hour

before the president gave these remarks. this was very much a moving target today as they cobbled together this deal in realtime what it does though is gives us in washington, generally, three weeks to let some of the steam out, to get some of the federal employees paid that will take some of the headlines off the front pages of federal employees in agonizing situations and it will prevent administration officials from offering perhaps unintentionally out of touch comments about how the federal employees can deal with this situation and that will allow them to cut a deal. but john harwood is probably right that once they reopen the government, there's not going to be a lot of appetite from republicans to do this exercise all over again >> michael, welcome to the conversation we didn't get to you last time but you're welcome to chime in here what do you think caused whatever sort of thawing has taken place over the last 24 hours? was it the failure of two votes

in the senate and we should point out the democratic plan got two more votes than the republican plan did. was it the airline disruptions is it the pressure mounting from the federal workforce including irs workers or probably a stew of all the above >> yeah, i think a stew of all the above is the right answer to that question. there was always going to have to be some mix in the house and senate for what solution was going to work the best and the appropriate base saver for the republican and seems in the president's speech, sort of offering some degrees of freedom within the debate, perhaps both kind of face saving and allowing for things to move forward but kind of two takeaways from that. he still did ask for new physical barriers but i don't think what's going to happen over the next three weeks is easy and congress preoccupied with that and two, the takeaway from the entire event is that there are still substantial political incentives to

partisanship for investors, the big takeaway is this is telling us about what congress isn't going to be doing this year and probably not doing the things that are addressing economic, what is sort of ailing the economy in 2019 which is the down draft of gdp growth and building inflation pressures on the dual mandate of the fed and infrastructure plannedas a white knight to the rescue here. >> really a great point there and it leads me to my next question for you, michael, and that is how much do you think that the shutdown has subtracted from the first quarter gdp the first quarter is generally measured as a slower quarter anyway >> yeah, so our economists took down the forecast from 2.5 to 1371 1.7 but only 0.5 from the shutdown itself. that sort of downdraft should stop but those uncertainties have accumulated and measures

have spiked substantially. if we were to return to the shutdown mentality, the frictions built up within the economy around this are substantial as well. movement of people, regulatory approval, so probably not fully through the downside of this yet. >> how quickly do you think things will get back up and running? from the ipo pipeline to law enforcement and that sort of thing, the paychecks that people are waiting on now and the impact, how quickly that might get into the economy >> i think pretty quickly. and that will be good news for the economy. i do want to reiterate to michael's point about economic related issues in congress i was struck by how positively pelosi has spoke in our lunch about the prospects for the new u.s. canada mexico trade deal, but in terms of what the president just said, this was a surrender by the president, a backdown he does not have new wall money here he's reopening the government. this is what was on the table in december when he decided to shut

the government down but i believe for the reasons kayla identified, all the ways in which he was alluding to democratic priorities. immigration judges, more upgraded ports of entry, smart wall these are all things they will negotiate in the homeland security conference. it is not difficult for the republicans and democrats in the homeland security bill conference to come up with a deal and then the question is how the president presents it in terms of his barrier and if, as i suspect, it does not include any money in the end for border wall, he either does something within his existing authority, repurposed money from the defense department or does some sort of executive action as he alluded to in those remarks. i do not believe, and i understand brian's point, things are unpredictable but i don't think they're going to, having had their third degree burns from putting their handson the stove, i don't think they're going to put them back on in three weeks. >> are we now going to have a

state of the union address and did we just see something like a preview of it or the way that was delivered, it was not what we were led to believe, more of a free willy q and a that roger stone and other events of the day might come up, are we going to hear more about this next week the president making his impassioned case why border security is so important, even as he, as john describes, might have folded on it? >> you bring up an interesting point because it did have more of a feeling of a rally than a news conference. you saw the cabinet and administration officials gathered outside in the west wing the president talked a lot about the humanitarian side of this, which is kind of unusual for this kind of setting it did have a feel of kind of a pre-state of the union address we'll see if that gets rescheduled. i suspect it will over the next few weeks. so i think there's a little bit of that and other things, john

touched on trade i'm sure that will get wrapped into the state of the union as well and foreign policy but those are kind of the probably the pillars of what a state of the union address is going to look like. >> john, let me come back to your point that this was a surrender on the president's part a surrender because he had said and administration officials said we are not going to reopen the government absent a deal to include border wall funding in any part of that solution, right? >> yes, and over the course of this discussion, the president increased the amount of money he said he was going to insist on from $5 billion to $5.7 billion. he undercut vice president pence who had offered a lower number he said, we're not doing that. he had been very firm after getting criticized from the right as he prepared to do that extension and that's why he is backing down here and i was just looking at my twitter feed to

see if ann coulter tweeted anything since these remarks i have not seen it but yeah, i think the president is going to, it looks as if he's going to be able to deliver his state of the union that's something very important to him and so i think he's going to try to figure out ways rhetorically to cover his retreat and get on to what's next >> you think he'll do it tuesday night? >> i don't know if they can do the walk-throughs and all the things they need to do logistically to make it happen it wouldn't surprise me if it happened because if they go and set it and in the house and do this very quickly, voice votes, unanimous consent, whatever, the government will be back up and running and i think at that point, nancy pelosi would happily reextend the invitation. the only question being, how quickly they can logistically get it done. >> advice to investors as we turn the page on the month of

january, there are at least four things that i can think of over the next six weeks that stand out to me. one is the fed meeting next week and what we hear there number two is the three week reopening of the government. number three is on march 1st is the punitive deadline for an agreement with china on trade and number four is a summit with kim jong-un. that's a packed agenda >> yeah, i mean, i'm going to be pretty busy obviously, but i will say, probably sounded pretty downward before, but there's signs of life here in the trade negotiations, so that's something that markets are going to like. we hope the u.s. and china can reach a face-saving arrangement to avoid tariffs going up but there's been some damage done by the escalation we've had so far and a lot of the policy choices

made last year will continue to pressure the feds will mandate and the investors continue to worry over the course of 2019 that the feds are not in light of that. it would seem the fed is more dovish in the next meeting but if for some reason, there's a change of tone and the data in a different way, the policy, the lack of policy addressing of the downside of fiscal stimulus is something that will weigh on 2019 >> kayla, how quickly are we turning about the procedure to get things back up and running >> depends when these votes are held and some believe they could be held today, perhaps there could be a voice vote held while membersof congress have alread left the building for the weekend. we'll see exactly how quickly they can get this up and running. i think the conversation about the february calendar becoming crowded is an important one. we've been reporting that as far as those trade deadlines go, remember, tyler, there's also a mid-february deadline for the commerce department to submit a report on potential auto tariffs

in the middle of february and some white house officials raised concerns privatelyabout the proximity of that deadline to the march 1st china deadline and if in fact, two events that the market could interpret as negatives. do you need to space those out more and potentially use the shutdown as a reason to delay the auto tariff report or potential implementation of auto tariffs and something privately going on behind the scenes we don't know what those will look like but the fact there's some sort of trying to stagger these dates and have flexibility with some of the deadlines is something that you should take note of when you think about all the things that are going to come up in february. >> maybe this is an area that you're not ready to answer definitively yet how quickly could federal workers start to get their back pay, you have any idea >> i do not have any idea. >> it could be a matter of days. the president said he wants them to get their backpay as soon as possible. >> i know my husband is personally interested in the

answer to that question. so as soon as i figure out, i'll let you know. >> kayla and all, thank you very much brian garner and eamon javers. >> we'll take a quick break. >> shall we. up. apple, amazon, facebook, microsoft all among the big names set to report as we now shift our attention back that way. and n'foet tdot rghe fed, a rate decision and a news conference we will get you set up stay with us - hello, i'm brad castillo.

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welcome back, dow is up about 180 points look at the nasdaq today, an 86 point gain next week we hinted at it a few moments ago. we have the next fed decision on wednesday, and chairman powell's news conference. we also have a massive week ahead in the earnings with the likes of apple, amazon, facebook among others reporting let's bring in quinn si crosby, chief market strategist, and

cara murphy. qui what are you focusing on for next week? is it the fed? is it earnings >> it's both even though chairman powell may not want to discuss the balance shee sheet, i think he wants to work through with the folks at the fed abiliout what they're going do he's got to address it it's already been in the news. if he doesn't have it in the statement, the reporters are going to ask him about it. >> is it priced in already or if it's in the statement, does that set us up for another rally? >> i think it will confirm it, but it's priced it you saw the movement in the market initially. >> we're talking about barely shrinking a humongous balance sheet that's been the source of consternation for months now it only bought us 180 points >> the question is what does he say? is he going to walk back from auto pilot and then if he says that, then the question is then why are you going to be taking away auto

pilot? he's going to be caught, and he's got to answer the questions. i guarantee the reporters are going to push him. the thing is the earnings, and next week is really important. we've got the major, major tech names and we want to hear what they have to say and apple applewas 178 just before thanksgiving, and look where it is now, and the question for the market is have they kitchen synced it? did they do it deliberately? get all the bad news out and then come out with something a bit more positive? and if they don't, then they have to explain that to the market. >> all right let me turn to karen, bring her in as we have not really a lot of time left cara, your thoughts there on earnings and the fed, why don't you address the fed first and then turn to corporate profits. >> i think of all the issues that the market is focused on right now, the fed is the most important, most fundamental driver of where the market and the economy are going to go, and you know, last year there was a lot of concern about the fed putting on the brakes too much, the market really took a hit

so i think powell's sort of turned toward a more dovish stance is a really important change yes, we'll have to see that confirmed next week, but this is a big change towards him saying that, no, we're going to keep the balance sheet steady we're now looking at fed fund futures are flat for the year, and that's going to be a really important determinant of the near term move in the market. >> really quickly, let's say the fed does what quincy is describing, that would be the good news. what happens if faang let's call it, disappoints? >> so i actually think -- earnings are always important, but they're particularly important this quarter because we have a bit of a blind spot with certain economic data not being reported so the faang stocks, i think, are important because they're really large parts of the market, but in terms of an indicator of where the economy is going, i'm looking more at things like caterpillar, a global industrial company. what are they seeing around the world, or homebuilders where

we've had sort of a dearth of information so we can get a broader picture of where thinks are going. >> thank you for your time today. "power lunch" is back in two. two. stay right thereguy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and yomad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis.

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you wouldn't sense a great elation there as the president was speaking the market was kind of in that 188 to 210 in terms of the dow, so we shall see what happens over the weekend and as we go forward >> yes, very busy week next week, so get your beauty rest. >> yeah. thanks for watching blun"power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" right now. ♪ good afternoon, a very warm welcome to the closing bell. i'm wilfred frost, a warm welcome to contessa brewer. >> thank you i'm filling in today it's great to be here. we're kicking off the hour with breaking news. >> president trump announcing a temporary end to the government shutdown we've got the latest on what might happen next. >> plus, jim cramer sitting down with wells fargo's ceo tim sloan. cramer will join us live with highlights from his interview. >> no doubt a take on th