dollar index >> the dollar and pound -- >> i think it sort of looks fine up here. if you look at the chart it's holding in there not sure if that says it's about to take off again, though. >> we are out of time. >> mike, thank you contessa, been a pleasure. that does it for "closing bell." have a lovely book "fast money" starts now. we are live from the nasdaq market site. i have am brian sullivan and i'm in for melissa lee tonight d.c. chaos hitting a fevered pitch. the government shutdown is over temporarily. 800,000 federal workers will get paid for the first time in a month, but the drama may actually just be getting started. we'll tell you what it might mean for the markets and your money. first, we've got to begin with earnings 13 it's like "ocean's 13" but less

clooney, more adami there are 13 dow stocks reporting next week. companies ranging from apple to boeing to exxon to pfizer. should you be trading these lucky 13 or fading them? these mega cap stocks. and what does it mean for the broader market guy adami, what does it mean to y you? >> that's a brilliant lead for the show. >> i had nothing to do with it, but thank you. apple up 7% in the past month. >> there's going to be a lot of consternation on the back of this, but i will say you fade apple -- >> oh, i thought they were saying you're wrong. >> no, it's the fade it -- that's the fade it symbol. i'll give you the reasons why. thank you. on january 2nd when apple gave their miserable guidance, the stock closed at basically

157.92 traded down to 142.5 it is now round trip and we're back where we started. quite frankly, the data hasn't gotten in better in some regards it's gotten worse. i'm not sure what they're going to report but i think the stock got the benefit of a stock market that rallied, probably an overcrowded condition. i think you fade it. >> i trade it. i trade it because everything that has happened to apple the rest of the market has overcome. if you think about apple being an indictment on growth around the world, certainly growth in terms of the semi conductor equipment and really u.s. growth, and yet the rest of the market has come to terms with a fed that is very much on hold. probably we priced recession in. we may be slowing but are still 2.5% in this gdp apple has been undersupported at these levels, at these fundamentals and this valuation. it's very attractive. >> i want to make one point, though this is how the year started out on january 2nd after the stock had been murdered the last few

months i don't think you have to trade it or fade it, i think you wait and see what they say on the call. >> that's not the game, though >> i'm matt damon's character. >> here's the thing. i think this is a really important thought process. next week all of these earnings after we've had such a big run, on some of these that are pretty controversial, maybe you don't have to trade it or step in front of it. tip cook has already done this tour there's a lot of information out. to me i think the risk is to the downside. >> actually i have to agree with dan on this one. this game is all about risk/reward. not the game trade it or fade it but the actual game we play every day. >> there's also risk >> bottom line is this to me is just a no-touch out there. i mean we don't know what he's going to say we know the news in china hasn't gotten better. >> hold on b.k., b.k., hold on. what's the most important thing tim cook has to say? >> he has to say there's some

growth out there >> everybody freaked out about the china story a couple weeks ago. can we forget that the previous three quarters ago, they had the best growth ever in china. >> but that doesn't mean it's going to come back china has got worse since then. >> but it took the market about 180 days to go from china is red hot to china is dead. >> not only that, listen to nike and some of the other companies. we act like who sunk my battleship, which was also another great game in apple's case, do you think that tim cook who had a chance to guide and basically gave us a lot of bad news is going to have screwed up again with coming in completely having missed these numbers? >> no, but by the same token he would change his tune pretty dramatically in four weeks is probably not a great bet either. to me what i'm saying is digest the news, see where it goes. it's down 30% from its all-time high. >> is there kind of a huawei effect with apple where maybe there was a rebellion against u.s. products in china because of what happened with the huawei

cfo? i'm not saying ignore the quarter. >> jim cramer brought that up as well. >> is there an asterisk on the quarterba quarter? >> on this guidance or the quarter coming up. >> on the 90 days prior to this. does apple get a pass because there was a bunch of other things happening. >> roger marist has an asterisk and so apple should have an asterisk there's not a -- >> bobby bonds has an asterisk. >> as does sammy sosa. >> barry barry bonds. >> i think you run from 142.5 back to 158, i say fade it. from phones to planes, boeing up 23% in the last month. let's go ted seymour. >> you can call me ted, that's okay, billy. the bottom line is you have a

question that has dpgiven guidae on the 727 planes. looks like china is still in there buying of all the companies that are going to report, if there's a company that's been most predictable in terms of free cash flow and their ability to generate eps growth, it's boeing by the way, at 365 to 375, major breakout level maybe you miss it on this one, but i think ultimately this stock is set to break higher trade it. >> so the price level is what concerns me because i would fade it here against that 370, 375 level. we've had a tremendous run, benefit of the stock market rally here why not take a little bit off the table and then wait and see? i don't think you need to be really aggressive with boeing here, particularly when all their growth or most of their growth is coming from emerging markets -- >> exactly if we're worried, dan, about iphone sales in china, shouldn't we be a lot more worried about $200 millionaire plan dollar ai? >> i think what happened today

in washington, the president kaig the way he did, is going to empower the chinese. i think they realize this guy is on the political ropes here and why would you -- why would you strike a deal that they want to strike right now companies like boeing i think are right in the crosshairs of that trade >> well, planes need fuel. fuel requires oil. exxon up 9% in the past month. brian kelly, trade it or fade the xop? >> in this game -- >> xom. >> i'm a fader of this as well primarily this is a view on oil but they do trade in lock step crude oil somewhere around $55 seems to be major, major resistance we've had this bounce-off. despite what happened in d.c. today, we still have a slowing global economy, which should not be so great for oil. so i am a fader of exxonmobil. >> even though it's down 18% in the past year. >> but you just said it's up so much. >> but over the past year it's still well down. anybody? >> i'm going to go right to trade it because i like to hear

the ding dong bell because that's better than that buzzer thing. >> it's not my show, i'm just keeping mel's seat warm. the sounds, it makes it sound like if you buzz it, wrong. >> that's where it changed me. >> see, fade me. >> in this case he is wrong. so keep going. >> the price is right. >> listen, the summer of 2014, exxonmobil was a $105 stock and it sold off. you had a subsequent bounce. you had four or five of those moves over the course of the last four years. i understand what brian is saying this isn't a downtrend however, you've seen the stock bounce i happen to think it will bounce after earnings i think there's a very good chance you see it trade up to 78 bucks, at which time you can fade it, brian i hope you're having a nice conversation but that is why i would trade exxonmobil. >> the conversation is always right in here. >> i could see it, the wheels were spinning. >> all right too much of another kind of oil and you might need lipitor for

cholesterol. that brings us to pfizer i tried to make the transition and i failed dan nathan, trade or fade pfizer >> i think you trade it. this stock broke out above 40 in the summer around august, and it broke out of a three-year range here there was just a lot of valuation support, there was a lot of excitement about a few different drugs. i think it sold off in sympathy with bristol, that bad data that they recently got. to me this is kind of best of breed, it's a cheap stock, traded at the low end of that range so i think you trade it with poor sentiment into the earnings. >> that's the point. it's right on the 200-day moving average. you know $40 is your support level which also can be your stop-out level i can risk 64 cents to see if this goes higher, i'll do that all day long. >> i'm going to trade it the reason pfizer is outperforming is because we were in a nine-month period where there was volatility

the company that was paying you a nice ddividend this stock did nothing for the three years previously >> double trading this >> i'm trading it again. why not. i'll outtrade you all. >> remember that joe the joker's wild >> great game. >> and a triple. >> well, we are about to have rarely seen and the quadruple because you're trade it, i'm a trade it as well so joker, joker, joker and a quadruple. i trade it into earnings >> hold on a second, buddy it's not a quadruple, it's a triple i'm fading that stock. >> you said trade it >> you said trade it twice. >> i'm now acting like you the bottom line is pfizer rallied in the face of a weak market the market has found its footing. this is a fade it. >> you said i'm buying it and buying it again. >> it's like that game on price

is right nobody can figure out by the way, nobody can do the triple end, it's the most dangerous dive. let's have a bonus rounding. do you know which has made the most money mcdonald's the last six months it's up 15%, well outperforming apple and the others mickey d's up 8% in one month. trade it or fade it? >> trade it. >> fade it and fade it again. >> what have we got? >> trade. >> fade. >> tim >> absolutely trade. >> are you sure about that >> i'm positive. >> are you the whopper and not the big mac? >> he called me the whopper. >> it's a song reference, tim. >> people don't know who kid in play is at home. >> great hair on kid in play. >> who had it, kid or play >> that's right, kid or play had it mcdonald's, you fade it. >> fade mcdonald's, three against one. play the buzzer for b.k. on his lack of knowledge. there it is.

all right. we are just getting started. as you sit in traffic, it is not just big dow stocks reportings earnings next week you've got facebook and amazon on deck as well. the traders think one will be a winner while the other could get left in the defendant. we'll explain why. plus, a wild day in washington the shutdown is over but don't get complacent, the drama in d.c. may just be getting started. we'll let you know what it means for the market and what wall street may be most worried about as always. we're back right after this. ♪

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white house aides conceding that the bill that passed the house and senate does not include any funding for a border wall despite the president's demands. here's how the president discussed the border wall in the rose garden this afternoon, a striking change of tone from his rhetoric on the campaign trail and in days leading up to this decision today >> we do not need 2,000 miles of concrete wall from sea to shining sea. we never did we never proposed that we never wanted that, because we have barriers at the border where natural structures are as good as anything that we can build. >> reporter: so the president insisting there that he doesn't need a full border wall across the entire border. in some places, natural barriers will be enough to deter migrants from coming across the border. where does that leave us we have a three-week deal that

goes until february 15th, a clean continuing resolution. negotiations are going to continue on a border wall. two white house aides told me and a small group of reporters that they have received assurances from democrats that they are prepared to vote for border wall funding in the wake of the government reopening. but the white house officials would not identify any democrats who have made such a promise, so we'll wait and see if that's in fact the case or not but ultimately a big political climbdown for the president on the border wall and on a day where his political advisor, former political advisor, roger stone, was raided and arrested by the fbi >> eamon, i don't want to put you on the spot, but a mechanical question that's important about 800,000 families today was supposed to be the payday for the federal workers obviously that passed. do we have any idea about the mechanics of when they will get paid can they run a special payroll or this week or will they have to get two more weeks to then get three pay periods back

>> reporter: the white house is not offering any answers on that right now. a white house official told me that they believe that within four or five days federal workers will get paychecks, but the official did not know if those paychecks would just be the current pay period or whether that would include all of the back pay. the official didn't know whether weekend days count in four or five days so not enclosure cleal they should get a check next week also not clear when all the national parks and the rest of the government that's been shut down will reopen no word from the white house on any of that as well. >> eamon javers, thank you very much we appreciate it. listen, it's a big deal for the 800,000 furloughed workers who were going to get paid eventually they'll get that back. contractors, though, restaurants, you don't get that income back. is there an economic trade or story around the reopening have the government >> i just think for volatility,

we now have in the next month two deadlines. we have february 15th and then we have this march 1st deadline. >> the debt ceiling. >> yeah. no, with the trade. >> we also have the debt ceiling coming up in march. >> so we have all these manufactured deadlines for markets, they just don't like that. it creates a lot of uncertainty. >> i know it's not options action -- >> do you buy the vix, though? >> yeah, vol is kind of low right here. >> the market told you today that this really isn't going to have much of an impact we were up 200 points on the dow. this news came out, nothing happened so this is just one minor thing. to dan's point, we still have many other things to be concerned about and many other potholes out there. >> but, first of all, i think the most important thing for the market today was not -- first of all, the market didn't real on this news of a reprieve and maybe getting a deal done, maybe not. by the way, as a guy that almost didn't make a flight, it is

creating problems in this country. the bottom line is the federal reserve. the market rallied on the back of the balance sheet of the fed not being $50 billion a month. the government shutdown is a terrible disgrace i think to our country and the people that are out of work -- >> the federal reserve balance sheet is more important than the shutdown. >> absolutely. >> for more of the d.c. drama and what it means to you, your money and the market, head over to cnbc.com. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc and here's what else is coming up. ♪ i'm so excited ♪ i'm so excited ♪ i'm so scared >> that's how all of wall street is feeling ahead of a number of key tech earnings next week, but don't be scared. the traders will tell you the one name they think will be the big winner plus -- >> can i get cannabis triple vente? >> maybe not, but you won't f lieve what the ceo o starbucks said about the cannabis craze there's much more "fast money"

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can i get a cannabis triple vente? >> well, you know, jim, you can't get a cannabis triple vente today, but we're well aware of what's happening around cbd, thc and all the trends in the industry but we're staying focused on the beverage innovation that we're driving. right now it's all about nitro >> that was starbucks ceo kevin johnson speaking with jim cramer about the budding trending of cannabis-infused consumer products piper jaf ray seeing more upside raising their price target to 60 from 40.

but the rally has been flowering all year -- >> flowering, i caught that. >> kronos up 55% aurora and afria are higher than last year, up 20%. so let's be blunt. >> oh, i see what you did there. >> can investors buy these stocks or will they go up in smoke? tim seymour, you're the pot expert. >> yes there's a lot of puns. despite the puns, canopy has the pole position for a lot of different positions. the upgrade by piper today before today's move was up about 83%. interesting also that they're moving their multiple from 11 times sales to 18 times. frankly valuations for the entire industry are coming down. if you look at the public low traded markets year over year while the industry has gone through amazing, amazing growth, valuations are coming down so i think canopy is a great company. i think it's a name you can own because of their balance sheet, because of their diversified exposure i'm puzzled by how people are doing valuations at this time in the market

>> the -- do valuations matter or is this the railroad sector in 1990? >> valuations always matter. we realize people are buying a gold rush. piper said the market is 15 to 50 billion and could be 500 billion. i agree with the excitement, you know i do. but on valuations, it does matter i think a lot of people are holding stuff that may never trade that high. >> gw pharma is the place -- i somewhat understand it jpmorgan initiated at the beginning of the month 135 price target they report at the beginning of february they just filed for an undetermined amountin gwph. >> anybody have an opinion on the space? >> i think everybody should have a little piece of it if it is the railroad sector in the 1890s -- >> you don't know because you

don't know in 20 years -- >> if you're an expert like tim, great, go for it and ding them hard if you're not an expert, just buy a whole basket of them. >> or buy none of them let's be frank these things are moving because there's mass i've uncertainty. this is the big market if anybody wants to put a total addressable market of 500 million, sell her. >> i'd say the basket of four or five big multi caps but i agree with you, danny, you don't need to buy them right now. >> guy, if you partake and then of a starbucks, does it balance out? >> i've never smoked in my life and we're light on time. >> final trades, go around the horn, tim. >> i had a little trouble with trade it or fade it. i'm going to trade boeing. i think their numbers are solid and the company is first class. >> b.k. >> a couple of weeks ago people were buying steel stocks because they thought there was a wall being built. doesn't liook like it so sell it

>> brian, thanks for hosting, big o.a. knows this, the other brian. funny things going on, newmont. >> i like that call. >> that deal they made recently. >> big show coming up. >> that does it for us "options action" is next everything i buy. % cash n and last year, i earned $36,000 in cash back. which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. what's in your wallet?

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welcome. we are live, as always, as nasdaq's times square and we have gut a big show for you on deck here's what's coming up. >> it's the final countdown to the busiest week for earnings season, and it could be make-or-break time for wall street, as some of the biggest tech stocks in the market report dan nathan and mike coe will tell you how to trade it. and if that's not enough for you -- >> i'm in a glass case of emotion. >> investors are awaiting a key fed meeting on wednesday, and the chart master says there's something happening in the bond market that could spell trouble

for stocks he'll break it down. it's time to risk less and make more the action begins now. >> and, yes, it does the action begins. welcome, everybody melissa is off tonight, i am brian sullivan thanks for being with us we are going to begin with tech earnings because the millenials might say they get lit next week apple, facebook, microsoft and amazon all set to release their numbers. apple, microsoft and amazon, those three could see a 5% jolt in either direction. facebook even more dramatic, 7% implied move back. altogether that represents a nearly $150 billion shift in market cap next week how should you trade, how should you play, how should you invest? let's get right now to carter worth at the plasma. you're going to begin by looking at amazon. >> so much hinges for the market these key big stocks, i thought i'd look at amazon i'll make the bet that it's

maybe not as good as consensus believes so there it is you can interpret it many ways let's try to interpret it together moving forward, one way to look at it, it's not really interpretive, it's a mathematical fact. this has been in a repeated uptrend repeatedly over and over and over, clearly broke trend. it dropped about 37% and it has ricocheted of course i want to talk about the ricochet it's roughly a 50% retracement we've dropped about 745 per share, we're up 372. it's essentially right to the midpoint that is a fibonocchi level for those who care but it's stuck or stalled at the retracement level. if i take away those lines, what you can see very clearly is this tight, tight consolidation

and that's typically what happens before a big bet one thing i would point out, not only could you draw the lines as the break in trend, you couldlye lines like that. obviously that's a bearish interpretation my hunch is the stock is a better sale than a buy. >> carter, come on back to the set. mike is out in san francisco today. mike, welcome, good to see you out west what is the trade on amazon? >> yeah, so this is an interesting situation. amazon is a really high-priced stock. so we're going to try to look at how you can use a put spread but mitigate some of the costs that normally come with trying to trade a stock that's as expensive as this one. for one thing when you buy options going into earnings, it would be probably a little bit too capital intensive to sell them here, you obviously have to worry about decay going into

events like earnings we're going to be looking at one in the money that has no decay the other thing is that buying or selling the stock itself is extremely expensive. at the current price it will cost you about $170,000 to trade around a 100-share lot of the stock. even if you bought one share, you're looking at nearly $1700, so we're looking to put on a trade for less than that the other thing is we're going into a specific catalyst earnings and look to do a trade that is a simple win/lose proposition. what i'm looking at here is the february 1680-1670 put spread. when i was looking at this earlier, the stock was around the 75 level, right between those two strikes and this trade was costing about $4.80. that higher strike put was trading for 6830 you would sell the lower strike against it for 6350. net-net you'll spend about $4.80 for that that's only $480

so less than a single share of stock. the thing is, the likelihood that the stock lands between these two specific strikes at expiration is very low so either it's going to be above the higher strike and you'll use the 480 or it's going to be below the lower strike and you're going to make $520 in profit so this is a way that you can risk relatively little to make a bet going into amazon earnings, which is something that typically would tie up a tremendous amount of capital. >> so i think the trade idea makes a lot of sense, especially if you agree with the fact that amazon is rolling over here, it's lost some of that mojo. buying put spreads into events, especially names like this that are very volatile, you're going to get a lot of things right just to break even here. so i like what he's targeting as far as the trades. i'm just make one point. this stock sold off almost 8% the day after they reported their q3 earnings. it sold off because of the guidance they guided down about 6%. if they come in and come in

below that, that they guided to in q4 and guide down for q1, this stock is going much lower. >> much lower? >> much lower. you're going to see a period where the company was -- you know, they basically had everything going for them. additionally in retail when you see them guide down $5, $6 billion in a quarter, that is u.s. retail. so if that is starting to move the other way, i don't think you want to be in this stock because that -- sales was powering all the other stuff they were able to do. >> think about the precondition, selling off 37% into the christmas time if this is such a bellwether and hold up what people believe is the long-term course, it doesn't react well i think it's asymmetrical risk/reward. let's turn to another fang stock, facebook. it's 20% off the december low as it tries to put its privacy

issues in the past mark zuckerberg penned an op-ed and said once again, they do not sell your data despite the recent rally, facebook stock still down around 30% from its july 2018 high. so, dan, facebook, how are you trading this one >> this is a really interesting one because this is been very controversial for about a year now. so amazon, when it started rolling over, it was just a few months ago apple the same sort of thing and really started with an earnings report facebook is affecting billions and billions of people around the world. really the fear is there's going to be a backlash from their users that will result in a backlash from advertisers leaving that platform. mark zuckerberg is trying to get in front of it he's much better writing op-eds than he is sitting on cushions in front of congress telling the story. here's a company that last year at this time earnings and sales for 2019, consensus estimates were expecting 20% for both. right now earnings estimates for

facebook have come down so dramatically that maybe they have come down a little too much, especially considering the fact that analysts expect 24% year-over-year revenue growth this year. here's the thing i kind of wanting to be cautiously optimistic but there may be another shoe to drop here so one of the things that i think the setup is interesting here's the chart, you see that well defined downtrend since that gap last summer it's right back at a really interesting level. i'll let carter talk to it because that was perceived to be support and then it broke a couple months ago and now it's a level. so to me the options market is implying a $10 move in either direction. that's about 6.5%. that's shy of the 8.7% average over the last four quarters. i think you take advantage near term, elevated kblieimplie volatility and sell out of the money calls and finance the purchase of out of the money calls at a later date. so you're playing for in a call calendar, you're playing for a bit of a consolidation it's not going to go up more than $10 in the next couple

weeks and not going down much more than that either. so the trade very specifically, the trade was trading at $149 today. you could buy the february-april 160 call calendar selling one of the april 160 calls at $2, buying one of the april 160 calls for $5 that trade costs you $3. you have this room to the upside if you get to february expiration and the stock is 160 or elow, those short 160 feb calls are worthless and you own the april, longer dated 160 call for only $3. that's 2% of the stock price i'm trying to thread the needle a little bit i'm playing for consolidation. i think there's a chance the company disappoints but maybe the stock is down enough year over year where it's in a good spot to set up for higher highs. >> mike, what's your view on facebook >> first of all, i think it's unlikely that they disappointing, at least if you're just look at the bottom line, because there is basically some hint that they're ad pricing has been able to hold

up all of the controversy aside, i think as far as the financials are going to look, it's still going to look pretty good. that doesn't get rid of the cloud. i like the way dan's trade sets up, though, because you'll notice oftentimes when people look at calendar spreads, they just think about the at the money strikes. in this case that would be the 150s by using those out of the money strikes, he's giving him quite a buffer to do well out of earnings those near dated options are quite expensive because of all the uncertainty hanging over this stock, trading at 17 times forward earnings but still growing the top and bottom lines at significant numbers i think this is the best possible way that you could try to make a cautiously optimistic bet. i have a hard time believing whatever those overhangs are, that cloud gets lifted just because they report good numbers, which i probably expect here i think this trade makes a lot of sense. >> we know there's been violent ricochets in so many areas of

the market, both tech and others if one is trying to find something that has been a bit nonparticipatory, facebook comes to mind. if indeed it's unhappy, it wouldn't be a big sell-off maybe with a little luck it could be something special to the upside. >> maybe, maybe with a little luck hardly the biggest vote of confidence for everything options action head to our website and sign up for our news letter. meantime, here's what's coming up investors are on edge ahead of the fed meeting next week and the chart master says there's something happening in the bond market that could send ripples across wall street we'll tell you how to trade it. plus, calling options action fans tweet us your questio esonoponction. if it's nice, we'll answer it on air when "options action" returns.

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you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. welcome back to "options action." the countdown is on to the big january fed meeting. that is next week, as 10-year yield pulled back sharply the last couple of months, carter says the rate rout is just getting started. he is back at the plasma to break it all down. >> what we know is you had record short positioning at exactly the wrong time rather than working out, rates pivoted, reversed, went from 330 to 255 we've bounced back to around 2.75 i think the important thing is the following. we have a well-defined break in trend, ever so slight, and now

after breaking we've thrown back to the underbelly of the trend line, which is often the point which you then of course hit your head again. one would want to buy something like a tlt one way to draw the lines, paying attention to this big spike is that we broke out, we probe that high and fell back. is that a failed breakout? in a way, yes. but what's key is if i remove that line, when we dipped really we held trend here in fact if we put in another line, what you have is a lot of tension for resolution ultimately i think that after toying with these tops and ever so slightly breaking out and pivoting down that we are going to make our way higher i like tlt on the long side here i think this is a good bet

i'm in the camp that yields are going as low as 2.1% on the 10-year. >> all right thank you very much, carter worth. mike, what do you think is the tlt? that of course is probably the most traded,most liquid bond focused etf. what's the tlt trade >> i think this is one of though cases -- it's interesting, we've seen as carter was pointing out, a fairly sharp move in a relatively short period of time when you consider the tlt has rallied basically 8.5 points since the november 2nd low that we saw and the reason this is important is that over a period of a week, a month, this thing could actually move very sharply but day-to-day it doesn't move very much what that means is that the prices of the options are actually relatively low. when options prices are extremely low, it means we don't needs to complicate the trade very much. we don't need to look to spreads to offset some of the decay. i was looking at the april 121 calls. those were about $1.85 when i

was looking at those earlier today. that's less than 2% of the current level of tlt, which closed, i think, around 120.5. so you don't need to see much of a move to the upside for these to be profitable think about what you're insuring against. if for whatever reason it made a move back to the november lows, that's really the downside risk. here you're only risking $1.85, so i think this is a very efficient and low-risk way to make a play that rates could go lower and, therefore, that the long bond could go higher. >> yeah, i think this is a really interesting situation where you can take a technical setup and look at the rates. you just look at that 10-year yield. that's what alot of traders ar looking at here. where did it just get rejected it got rejected at the 2013-14 taper tantrum highs. then it broke that uptrending that have been placed. then you put that together with the fundamentals you put that together with what

the fed is telling us what they plan to do on rates, you put that together with the potential to flight to quality in u.s. treasuries i say mike's buying those calls is about as cheap as you can get right now in any risk asset as far as options or pricing. to me i like this trade. you're playing for a 2% move between here and april to the upside that's a good risk/reward. >> low is 127 in june of 2016. quite the incredible thing. >> other things are sort of in play gold is messaging certain things the u.s. dollar. >> hold on, go back. what is gold messaging don't just say that, throw it out and walk out. >> the ricochet in equities would imply. but the positioning got extreme, people were punished for that and consensus remains higher, rates, everything sort of okay don't worry about what happened in december in equities. we'll see. >> all right still ahead, starbucks brewing

up big gains off its earnings report this week we'll let you know what might be next for starbucks stock. plus, do you have a burning question for the traders or make a lukewarm one we'll take your tweets later on in the show. hit us up @optionsaction and you ght get your answer. more "options action" right after this what do you look for when you trade? i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪

[ neighing ] [ screeching ] ♪ [ sigh ] it's bring your own phone, not pony. so i could have taken the bus? yeah. bring your phone. switch your carrier. save hundreds a year with xfinity mobile. plus get $100 back when you bring in an eligible phone. call, click or visit a store today. so lionel, what does 24/5 mean to you?rade well, it means i can trade after the market closes. it's true. so all...

evening long. ooh, so close. yes, but also all... night through its entirety. come on, all... the time from sunset to sunrise. right. but you can trade... from, from... from darkness to light. ♪ you're not gonna say it are you? welcome back it is time now to look back at some of our open trades. last week you remember carter worth and mike said that shares of starbucks were about to heat up on earnings >> we toyed with breaking out once we got a little bit higher again. we toyed with it again a lot of tension here. the presumption is that on its next earnings it gaps again as it did last quarter and the stock clears all of these hurdles. i'm a buyer. >> i'm just looking out to

april. the 65 calls were trading around $2.50. those were close to at the money calls when i was looking at that >> all right, shares of the coffee giant jumping on the results, up 4% today okay, mike, what do you do now with the trade >> sure. so the shares were up 4% the calls we bought were up about 50% as of the close today. the thing is that now we're long a call that's in the money you know one of the advantages options give you is this convexity around the strike. meaning you don't risk that much to the downside and gain much more to the upside if you're long something like a call the problem is once that call ends up in the money, you have two things working for you one is that it's starting to decay. we already have seen the moove w were playing for because it's in the money it's going to perform more like a stock than an option so take the 50% gain you made week on week, use some of the profits to maybe buy another coffee carter. >> exactly it's knowing who you are in the

market if you played a moment and you got paid and paid in spades because of optionality, take the money and run. does it mean starbucks is not going higher no it still hasn't cleared the all-time high. for this specific purpose, the trade that was put on exactly what mike said, let's take the money and celebrate with a starbucks. >> there you go. now, we're not done calling out these prior trades earlier this month dan over here bet intel was heading higher. >> i'd take a couple of shots on intel over the long side over the last year and a half or so to me it's been stuck. they have had a few macro issues and a few very company specific issues, losing their ceo and a delay on an important chip so market share losses. it sounds like we might get resolution to all those things the july 50-60 call spread could be bought for $2.40. buying one of the july 50 calls

for $thr3, selling one of the jy 60 calls at 60 cents. >> so here's the deal. i said we might get some resolution soon. we didn't get resolution, we got news that wasn't fantastic for the stock. the stock was down 5.5% today. here's the thing since i laid this trade out, the stock it only down 50 cents. this trade that could have been bought for $2.40 is now worth about $1.80, 1.yi85 i think you stick with this. that 50 call strike is really an important level. it was almost there the other day. it almost got through, it didn't if the news flow were to change, this is the sort of call you'd want to own into midyear. >> the important thing is the juxtaposition between intel's poor performance and an otherwise incredible week for semis. at the weakweaken end, you haveg

coming off their lows. so intel is something that's specific to the company. it's probably just a pair of twos here. no trade not bearish, not bullish. up next, your tweets and the final call plan i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read ereports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪

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♪ all night long... is that lionel richie? let's reopen the market. mr. richie, would you ring the 24/5 bell? sure can, jim. ♪ trade 24/5, with td ameritrade. ♪ . welcome back time to take your tweets our first fan and maybe our only asks what about that apple call that you guys discussed a while ago, should we hold or sell ahead of earnings, mike in san francisco? >> yeah, so going into earnings, options premiums are elevated. this has to run all the way to 170 before you're sorry that you had that one so i think you stick with the trade going into earnings. >> mike, kick it off with our final call since we've got you. >> april 121 calls, in tlt. >> carter. >> amazon is up 30% off its low. take some money off the table and put it in tlt. >> sell amazon, buy bonds.

dan. >> facebook, let's be cautiously optimistic i'm not buy calls but i like the idea of buying call calendars. >> sell amazon and buy bonds all right. that does it for us on "options action." catch us next time at 5:30 jim and "mad money" start right now. have a great weekend >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here the level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to mad money welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me today we had a nice session, dow climbing 184 points. nasdaq falling 1.29% but that's