it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc, top five at five, buckle up, strap in, get ready. it's a huge week on tap. a ton of earnings. trade talks, fed meeting, oh, yeah, a jobs report. we'll help you navigate it through all straight ahead the u.s. government is back open at this hour but the clock ticking toward another possible shutdown we're life in d.c. with more. crisis in ka raucous venezuela facing a major power shakeup. we're live in the region the s.e.c. reportedly investigating nissan over executive pay. and former starbucks ceo howard schultz says he's seriously considering running for president. we'll have more on all these big stories coming up on this

monday, january 28th as "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ hot and cold, yes then know ♪ you're in and out, you're up and you're down ♪ good morning, good afternoon, good evening and welcome from wherever in the world that you may be watching happy monday i'm brian sullivan thank you for beginning your week with us here on cnbc. here is how your money and the global markets are setting up their day. not a green open right now dow futures indicated the dow could drop about 100 points a the open s&p futures down just about 12 points right now we are seeing red across the board, but fair value in the green, so listen, it's early this could change, but there's your setup we're not in asia. let's get a check. it's primarily a down day to begin the week here. we are seeing a drop we saw a slight gain with the other asian markets certainly are on the downside, not a big deal, not a huge drop right now. trade talks are going to be key this week for us and for the asia markets particularly that shanghai

composite. what about in europe let's get a check there and see how they are trading as well remember, our week is their week in many ways they are waiting on a lot of the stuff, particularly our federal reserve to see what happens there and the german dax up .1 of 1%. we often say it's a big week ahead for your money we mean that in fact, this is the busiest week of earnings season so far today, we're going to get numbers from names like cat pillar, whirlpool and ak steel tomorrow, you get data on housing, consumer confidence and earnings from apple, you may have heard of them, pfizer and verizon. wednesday, yeah, that's the fed rate decision. what are they going to do? are they going to raise rates again? will they imply they're getting more dovish and seen the last of the rate hikes for a while that will happen on wednesday. you have china trade talks kicking off in d.c. and earnings

out of microsoft, facebook and tesla. thursday, tiger 21 conference in florida. sounds good right now? and results from amazon, ge, conoco phillips, mastercard and ups and friday we'll round out yourp week with the monthly jobs report, the oil rig count, that matters, and it dropped two weeks ago in a big way as well as a bunch of energy earnings from names you know from exxon and chevron. i'm tired already. joining us now is dan from pal said capital management. is that enough for you >> kind of a boring week, isn't it >> are you going to get any sleep? >> zero. >> of those things, china trade talks, federal reserve, earnings, et cetera, throw everything else into another basket. >> sure. >> what's the most important thing for you and your clients >> the federal reserve is very important because really you've got to see that the money is not going to be restrictive. what i would be looking for is further clarity on the size of

the fed's balance sheet. >> how much they're bringing that down, what they call not qe, these is qt, quantityive tightening >> define the plan and certainly not use terms like auto pilot or, you know, those sorts of things because you can't do two things at the same time you can't raise rates and shrink the balance sheet while you have all these global uncertainties going on. >> okay. >> in particular china. >> do you think we'll get a rate hike. >> zero percent. >> nobody thinks that. >> what do you want to hear them say the dovish pal or hawkish pal? >> you want we're backing off. >> yeah. you want to hear them say i have some concerns about china. i have concerns about brexit you want to hear that he's incorporating some of the realities of what's going on around the world into the calculus of how policy is going to be set. >> earnings.

obviously this is -- this week and next week are the two primary weeks. you have all these -- we throw these names out. i get it we only highlighted a few. there's more than 100 companies reporting their numbers but there's a few that matters more than others. >> yep. >> is there one or two that you really care about. >> that fruit company is the most important, apple. it's got to be all about apple because that's going to set the tone for all of technology, the entire ecosystem, the entire supply chain you know, you've had a huge rally back in the semiconductor space, which is very interesting to me. you want to see -- >> interesting and there's interesting. how is it interesting? >> well, you know, remember that sector was the first sector where we saw weakness in early summer that's where we started to see the decay begin, which metastasized into a growth scare as we got into the late fall i think similarly that's been the area where we've seen tremendous leadership. so if we see further evidence

that a dominant player like apple is at least certainly the expectations are quite low and it's really going to be what they say on the guidance. >> you've been on a few times, and i remember a couple weeks ago near the beginning of the year you said you remained op mystic for this year and think we'll be up 10 to 20% in 2019. >> that's right. >> we're off to a good start. >> we're off to a good start. >> we're off to a good start. >> do you remain optimistic? >> i do. technically we're in a questionable zone where we could be subject to profit taking, but i think that would be a 3 to 5% technical pullback because v shape market recoveries are actually quite rare. we're -- unless we saw material progress on trade and a major stimulus -- >> by the way on wednesday, kind of got muddled up there. but on wednesday, we begin these trade talks where we have the chinese vice premier here. >> that's right. >> how closely will you be listening and watching what happens in d.c.?

>> that has to be the most -- >> has to go well. >> it has to go well they have to show progress they have an extremely aggressive time frame that very few people think they can achieve. but if they show enough progress and the president views that there's enough progress to warrant further, extension of that deadline, then i think we're good >> dan veru, always a pleasure to get your take. >> thank you. >> optimistic one to begin the week as well we appreciate it, dan. have a great day. >> thank you. new this morning, the securities and exchange commission now reportedly investigating nissan over executive pay. frank holland is more here with more on this developing story. >> nissan is confirming it received an indwyer fri the s.e.c. and the auto maker says it's coop right. reports say the regulator is investigating nissan's pay to u.s. executives how that was disclosed and whether it did enough to prevent financial misconduct both nissan and former chairman carlos ghosn have been charged in japan for falsifying statements and understood

reporting ghosn's income by more than $80 million by an eight-year period. ghosn has been in jail since first being arrested in november has denied all the accusations he faces up to ten years in prison reports say that s.e.c. probe appears to really be in the early stages and has not extended beyond a request for documents so far shares of nissan trading down almost a percent in japan today. back over to you, brian. >> frank, good to see you in a few minutes. thank you very much. other corporate news today, united states is lifting sanctions on russian aluminum giant rusal. those sanctions were put in place back in april. the u.s. treasury department lifted them after deripaska. shares are up big in russia. we are getting started on "worldwide exchange. up next the crisis in ka ra kus. energy prices on the move but svi svi sven sai lan

>> sounding the alarm. one business is raising the flag on the health of the american economy. we'll tell you why and what to watch for as "worldwide exchange" returns on a monday morning. ♪ and if you feel, like i feel baby then come on, ♪ ♪ oh come on ♪ let's get it on applebee's. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. wat t. rowe price, hundreds of our experts go beyond the numbers to examine investment opportunities firsthand. like a biotech firm that engineers a patient's own cells to fight cancer. this is strategic investing.

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little bit surprising. we'll get to that in just a minute wti crude down just about 2% to 52.68. jim cramer highlighted many times for you guys, this stock market is really following oil oil is down, the stock market is down and that's the way this monday morning is going. mean time, very serious and sad story out of brazil. a dam broke over the weekend and it is catastrophic officials say 58 people are now confirmed dead and firefighters are continuing to search for hundreds of more missing people. that dam is operated by the world's largest iron ore minor the company has suspended planned dividends, buybacks and executive bonuses in the wake of the disaster. in the meantime the chaos continues in caracas john bolton warning against violence in that nation saying that any such action could trigger a response from the united states. his comments come after secretary of state michael

pompeo told the u.n. security council over the weekend that the world must, quote, pick sides. venezuela's power struggle the u.s. recognizes the government of guaido, strong man nichololas maduro maintains his grip on power. joining us live from the region is gideon long over the weekend, we saw guaido urge the generals who said they will go with nicolas maduro, they're his apoint tees, but we're seeing guaido urge the rank and file to support his government is there any indication right now which way the military is going to go in this power struggle >> reporter: well, for the moment it looks as though the military is backing nicolas maduro there have been a few defections from the military, the most wornt was the defection of the venezuela's top military envoy to washington over the weekend and there have been some signs

of rebellion among the rank and file particularly last week at the beginning of last week when there was a serious rebellion by the bull vary yan armed guard in caracas. for the most part the military does seem to be sticking by mr. maduro, at least for now >> the european union is now chimed in, giving nicolas maduro eight days to effectively call a new election of course, the government of maduro has responded very strongly to these calls, saying the world is wrong, effectively. is there any indication we will get another and new election in the next week or two >> reporter: i think there is absolutely no chance that nicolas maduro will call an election within the next week. that deadline set by the european union expires next weekend and it's almost certain there will be no agreement and the european union therefore will recognize guaido as interim president and the plan would then be eventually in mr.

guaido's plan, he would call fresh elections and eventually venezuela will return to democracy but that's still a long way off. >> what is the risk to juan guaido >> i think there are various risks. there's a practical, physical risk that he could be arrested we've seen the detention of various members of his party and other opposition parties in venezuela, so there is a risk to his person that said, the fact that the international community has rale lied behind him with the with the united states, with canada and with latin american countries all recognizing him as interim president gives him some sort of safeguard. i think it would be very difficult now for the maduro regime to arrest him the international outcry over such a move would be tremendous. i think in that sense it's protection there is a risk to him for sure.

>> gideon long of the financial times. we appreciate your insight thank you very much. all this upheaval in venezuela could have a big impact on global oil venezuela is already looking for other non-u.s. markets for its oil by selling tankers around the world. practice what's known as tendering. now, it is expected also that opposition leader juan guaido could appoint a new board and heads of both the venezuelan oil company and their u.s. arm now that could happen at any time or not at all, but if that happens, citgo could be ordered by the u.s. government to begin sending all of its u.s. oil revenue to the interim guaido administration if that happens, that would cut off nicolas maduro's real only source of money and further slam venezuelan oil production because all the oil fields and rigs would essentially now not only be torn between two governments but two competing

companies. joining us now to make sense of all this, global head of commodities and cnbc contributor. it's very fluid and very confusing often situation because you effectively have two governments. now you could have almost, almost two venezuelan national oil companies. is there any scenario that you can see where already depleted venezuelan production stays where it is? >> reporter: no. i mean, we already thought that venezuelan production would be down 3 to 500,000 barrels even without sanctions. you bring in these type of punitive measures we'll see this production roll that much faster the key question is does the trump administration really want to take that many additional barrels off the market under consideration had been banning venezuelan oil in the united states about 500,000 barrels a day come into the united states. that's a key measure under consideration. whether we ban the sale of venezuela to help them blend the

crude. >> what you said the last part about, it's technical, commodity based but it's important we sell them stuff that effectively helps refine their oil because it is so -- the type of oil they have is very thick. >> right. >> if we cut that off, is their production i don't want to say going to zero, but going -- way down >> right it's going to slide so sharply so fast. i mean, they can obtain it but at a much higher cost. venezuela is at a country 42 billion in foreign reserves just a few years ago, they now only have 8 billion in foreign reserves they're $9 billion behind in debt payments. they're running out of money quickly. what is key in the international community, the russians lent them $10 billion in the last couple years china lent them upwards of $63 billion. those are the countries that potentially provide the lifeline for nicolas maduro going

forward. >> the only way those debts can be repaid as well as paying back the one bond they have, a 2020 bond is the citgo oil revenues we don't know if it's legal that the u.s. government could say, we order you citgo to divert your money to the new administration or how they would do it. if we try to do it and if we can succeed in doing that, those bonds -- that bond won't go paid the russians won't get paid. the chinese won't get paid what happens then? >> i mean, we're in totally uncharted territories if they do a maneuver like that something like an import ban would actually be easier to carry off, but the key thing to watch when you bring up the bonds, they came very close to defaulting the last couple years on their bonds it was the russian oil company that came in at the 11th hour with billions of dollars that allowed them to pay those debts. and the russians apparently have been sending more of their own

military trainers to venezuela they have secured significant acreage in venezuela in return for those loans. i do think it will be very important to watch how much of a financial lifeline do the russians provide maduro. this is a russian sat lied in our hemisphere. >> why would the russians give the maduro administration any more money when they're not sure they're going to get paid back and that land isn't going to have much value if the new administration succeeds in winning the government they may override those claims? >> well, that becomes the really important question for the russians because the russians have made a significant investment in the maduro regime. in the generals that are backing maduro, do they want to forfit that acreage i dothink it will be an interesting question of how much do the russians believe that they can keep some form of military government in power in venezuela? could they basically say maduro, you're gone and have somebody else in the military take over i think the russians will be looking for plan b and plan c to protect their economic and

strategic interest in the region >> helima kroft joining us from italy always in a far plunge location but brilliant insight as always. thank you very much. up next, brewing a possible bid former starbucks ceo and founder howard schultz says he's eyeing the oval office. we're also on washington watch for a different reason, yes, the government officially reopening today but for how long could another shutdown be just around the corner? a live report from d.c. as ♪ ehae"etnscng rur ♪ your typical bank. capital one is anything but typical. that's why we designed capital one cafes. you can get savings and checking accounts with no fees or minimums. and one of america's best savings rates. to top it off, you can open one from anywhere in 5 minutes. this isn't a typical bank. this is banking reimagined. what's in your wallet?

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♪ i am seriously thinking of running for president. i will run as a sen tryst independent outside of the two party system >> starbucks ceo howard schultz telling "60 minutes" he is considering a run for the white house. schultz backed up with a tweet overnight saying, quote, i love my country and i am seriously considering running for president. as you heard schultz say, he would run as what he calls as a centrist independent nbc's tracie potts is live in washington with more. tracie, good morning. >> hi there. good morning february 15th is the new date that lawmakers and the white house are working toward to try to get a permanent budget in place and keep these folks on the job who are coming back today. president trump did what he said

he wouldn't do he reopened the government without any money for a border wall so now his party, republicans say, time for democrats to compromise is president trump ready to negotiate? >> he actually is. keep in mind he's willing to do whatever it takes to secure the border >> reporter: the federal government reopens today, temporarily, for three weeks with $5.7 billion for a border wall still on the table. >> we are building a wall right now. a portion of it. we have to go further. >> reporter: despite house speaker nancy pelosi refusing to the pay for the wall, democrats say they have always been for securing the border. >> i don't support any wall funding, but i do support border security >> we have supported, as you know, enhanced fencing and i think that's something that's reasonable that should be on the table. >> reporter: keeping the government funded and open for the rest of the year could come down to this, what does border security look like >> it's going to be a combination of physical barriers, technology, more

border patrol agents, more immigration judges, more sensors. it's got to be in all of the above approach >> reporter: with president trump's job approval upside down in the latest nbc "wall street journal" poll, the white house says he does not want to declare a national emergency, using pentagon funds to build a wall, but that's still possible. >> i think it would be a terrible idea. i hope he doesn't do it. i don't think it's leverage either. >> reporter: leverage front and center as national parks reopen and 800,000 federal employees head back to work today. they're coming back to work looking for a lot of money, a big paycheck, all that back pay from a month from the past month coming by the end of the week. back to you. >> tracie potts in washington. tracie, have a great day thank you very much. up next, two big-money warnings first, why one market pro thinks an earnings recession could be ahead. later, one business group raising a red flag on th

economy. we'll tell you what and why when we return. ♪ ring my bell my mom washes the dishes... ...before she puts them in the dishwasher. so what does the dishwasher do? cascade platinum does the work for you, prewashing and removing stuck-on foods, the first time. wow, that's clean! cascade platinum.

wake up and buckle up. it's a huge week ahead for your money. all the key events that you need to watch straight ahead. new this morning, the s.e.c. launching an investigation into nissan and sounding the alarm one business group is raising a big old red flag on the american

economy. we'll tell you why as "worldwide exchange" rolls on ♪ ♪ baby please don't go ♪ wake up tomorrow will you still be here ♪ welcome back and good morning. thank you for being with us here on cnbc i'm brian sullivan let's kick off the second half of the show with everything you need to know in about 60 seconds. called the executive recap frank holland is back with it right now. frank. >> brian, leading cnbc.com right now. nissan is confirming it is cooperating with the probe by the s.e.c. reports say the auto maker is being investigated in connection to pay disclosures by former chairman carlos ghosn. "the wall street journal" says that probe is just in the early stages both ghosn and nissan are charged in japan for underreporting his income for years. and rescue crews are continuing to search fortune hundreds of people missing after a mining dam burst in brazil triggering a landslide the death toll has risen to 58 it is expected to keep climbing. the dam is owned by mining giant

and they say this disaster happened even after the company followed safety recommendations from experts. back in the u.s., costing us more for drivers to fill up their car. average price of gas inching up 2 cents over the past two weeks to 2 .33 a gallon after gas fell by 64 cents. big turn around there, brian over to you. >> 2 cents, frank. can you get more specific? kidding. see you in a bit thanks check on this morning's other top headlines outside of the world of money and business. phillip mena in new york with those. >> good morning. officials are confirming that a tornado briefly touched down in miami dade county florida. the winds were powerful enough to topple over a large truck and knock trees to the ground. homes in the area suffering minor damage severe weather reeked havoc across south florida causing flight delays at the hollywood international airport. no injuries reported. a measle outbreak is flaring up at an alarming rate in

washington 35 confirmed cases in the state and 35 are in clark county alone across the river from portland, oregon the governor declaring a state of emergency and the department of health is urging people to get their measles vaccine if they don't already have it. this is not a scene from a movie. it's an extreme case of road rage caught on camera along a busy massachusetts highway after a minor fender bender, a 65-year-old man jumped on the hood of that suv that was trying to leave the scene that driver hitting speeds of up to 70 miles per hour as the man clung to the vehicle both men are now charged and scheduled to appear in court today. brian? back to you. lot of bad decisions all the way around on that one >> that's unbelievable >> yeah, right >> don't do that phillip, thank you. >> nothing is worse it no problem, brian. >> no. wow. okay good morning, by the way 28 degrees in new york, frosty 18 with the real feel of 4 in chicago. so bundle up there futures also a little cold as

well dow and s&p down one half of 1%. live look at chicago supposed to be negative 30 in green bay, wisconsin at some point this week. wow. now, futures down triple digits. this could be why. despite the chaos in venezuela and fears its production could collapse the coming weeks because you have two competing governments, oil is actually down crude oil down 2% right here both here and in europe. what you need to watch not only this week but going forward the rest of the year, always happy to be joined by jeffrey kline at charles schwab great to see you so early on a monday morning up, ready to go, getting your clients set up thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me on as always thank you. >> happy question for you, are we going to be in recession by the end of the year because there's calls that corporate earnings could be in recession by the end of the year but what does charles schwab say? >> well, that is a heightened risk whether we get that or not, i think depends on things we need

to watch like the yield curve, of course, nearly flawless indicator of what the economic outlook likes like but also like to watch the gap between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate here in the u.s those two have met at the same number ahead of the last three recessions they're not there yet. there's still a little bit of a gap. so i think this rally we've seen in january may have a little more legs but could ultimately run into pressure ahead of the heightened risk of recession perhaps later this year or even in 2020. >> a negative year for the equity market this year, jeff? >> it's possible again, we have to see. the fed has stepped back a little bit here. there are things in the near term can continue to go right. we could get a break in the trade war, the u.s./china battle back and forth and even see a tax war positive for growth. you have countries like canada, australia, the netherlands, china, the uk and germany all looking to follow the u.s.'s lead and cut corporate taxes this year. that could be a short-term boost to growth and profits all con tin jentd on all that stuff

getting done in the meantime, economic momentum does continue to slow >> you think there's a chance of that happens that canada or germany or whatever does cut their corporate tax rate >> i think there's a good chance i just don't know if they can get it done this year. that's the plan. but it may actually drag out into 2020 when it's maybe needed remember, there are a number of countries that actually have some fiscal room to move germany is one of those. it's running a budget surplus right now. each time it's done that in the past 20 years it was followed by corporate tax cuts germany didn't need to do it in the last couple years. now with nearly slowing into a recession in the last six months, it's time. >> now, why would we care? u.s. equity investors if germany or some place else cut their corporate tax rate how would it impact or markets >> well, a couple different ways one is that it could simply boost global growth as you get a lower tax rate, more companies may be interested in doing more investment, after tax return on capital investment may be higher that could be a plus, but this could also spill over into individual tax cuts as well

further bolstering the consumer which is the biggest driver of the global economy. >> what would be the best case scenario for the u.s. eqquities this year, jeff? >> it's difficult to say it's hard to see valuations moving given sluggish earnings growth we're looking at this year may be modest single digit gains but also risk of losses this year. maybe more risk to the downside than the upside. i hate to say it but i think that's the case. that means more defensive positions in sectors like health care where earnings may be less vulnerable to earnings recession like you mentioned >> what you say is important because a lot of your -- you got millions of clients at swab that may take action on what you say, so if they believe what you're saying, little more concerned, do they just put their money in health care and let it ride or other parts that look attractive even what may be a muddled overall scenario >> i think global diversify indication is really important this year. last year the u.s. outperformed

and may seem in difficult times to retrench to what you know to focus just within the borders of the u.s. but as i mentioned from a tax cut perspective or relative growth perspective, there could be opportunities outside the u.s. that may offer growth or even may offer some diversify indication from what could be an overall very volatile year think about global diversification this year in important in equities. however i would be cautious on emerging markets they have a nice rally but are vulnerable to a number of pressures particularly slowing economic growth moch. >> we have a trade war, maybe we'll have some kind of a tax war. jeff kline top of charles schwab, hey, really appreciate it this morning. thanks have a great week, jeff. talk to you soon. >> you, too. thanks aside from the markets and your money and tax wars, let's find out what else you might be talking about at the office aside from the weather, of course. >> what's the hand motion, jazz hands? >> i do with that everything

>> a lot of things you're excitable. >> i really am. >> 10-year-old new jersey boy became the second youngest bowler to ever bowl a perfect game struter's parents say he was bowling since he was 18 months old. i don't know howthat's possible started bowling in a league at age 4. it's in the blood. says his uncle has actually bowled two perfect games but as an adult, and this kid is obsessed, he plays bowling games on his phone. >> i love, 10 years old, new jersey guy what's not to like look at this spin he puts on the ball southpaw action. >> lefty from now on. >> listen, last time i bowled i bowled like an 88. >> is that good or bad >> that's horrible. >> i'm not a bowler. >> clearly. >> clearly fox broadcast rent live, it wasn't totally live. actor brian hunt broke his actor during the final dress rehearsals so they decided to broadcast a tapederer her sal. brennan did not have an understudy the cast did perform the final

scene live including brennan with a cast on his injured leg all these broad kay shows have understudy and the main actor takes a break and you go and see the understudy no clue why they wouldn't have it there you go >> get well, brennan. >> yeah, get well. 25th annual screen actors guild awards were handed out last night black panther took home best film ensemble. others included glen close, emily blunt all great actors big fans of all of them. >> yeah. spectacular movie. i think it will come down to green book, of course that's we're a em hoer, that's our movie, universal and black panther. my wife watched roma, said it was spectacular netflix. >> you don't think bohemian rhapsody is in the mix. >> fair enough. >> i have not seen it. >> i love queens so much if i see it, will it tweak my view >> i don't know either. >> i should see it

freddy mercury is god. >> i don't know the background but everybody loves the music. >> how could you not sticking with hollywood. glass took home the top. the flick brought in 19 million this week. it's a comic book movie slash horror flick bringing worldwide total to 163 million did you ever see unbreakable >> i did. >> yeah with samuel l. jackson. >> there was a sequel and this is part of the trilogy. >> does it combine characters from the sixth sense and unbreakable? i have not seen this. >> there was a second movie this is like a trilogy. it wasn't critically acclaimed this is the final one. >> got it. >> i guess i got to see the others now before i see this. >> exactly >> which i won't frank, thank you. >> you're boycotting them. >> i have a 4-year-old at home going to the movies is a rare treat. get ready for an earnings palooza. corporate numbers the busiest week of the earnings season,

more than 100 companies, but don't worry. we'll tell you the key names you need to watch. but first, one business group sounding the alarm on the american economy, steve leashman will join us with who and why as we roll right back stick around ♪ ♪ hawaii is the first state in the u.s. to have a hundred percent renewable energy goal. if we don't make this move we're going to have changes in our environment, and have a negative impact to hawaii's economy. ♪ verizon provided us a solution that lets us collect near real time data on our power grid. ♪ if we can create our own energy, we can take care of this beautiful place that i grew up in. ♪

♪ there's a look at hong kong. their day is already done. monday is in the books nice 64 degrees there in hong kong go over the map. looks like the caribbean

stock futures looking a little less sunny right now. we're down triple digits on the dow, down about 119 points s&p also off about one half of 1% meantime, that ten-year yield sitting right at 2.75% a big story for you, the national association of business economics is out with its latest pulse check on the u.s. economy. things aren't looking too rosy steve leashman joining us with results of that and the details. steve? >> yeah, brian it is an ugly business outlook survey from the national association for business economics. taken during the shutdown that hopefully was influenced by the shutdown, which hopefully is over here is some of the data out there. the current assessment of sales, 29 down 26 points for the fourth largest decline in the 38-year history of the survey. the lowest level since the third quarter of '17 profits just 3 this is the net rising index in other words, those rising minus those falling down 26 points

largest decline in the history of the survey. lowest since the fourth quarter of 2016. employment was a bright spot at 25, up two points. capex down 13 points to the lowest level since the second quarter of '17 in fact, plans for capital spending in the next three months have fallen below the level where they were before the tax cuts were enacted. fully 84% of firms up from 81 in the last survey say the tax cuts had no effect on hiring or spending plans it is hire for goods producers, however, which is good news. and some other good news in the survey, 77% say tariffs have not affected higher spending plans prices were well under control and the firms control to have trouble finding skilled workers which is good news if you're a worker, not necessarily a higher 64% see growth 2.1 and 3% this year that is down from the last survey and third see it at 2% or below. this is one of the first business surveyors since the shutdown we'll see if it's confirmed by other surveys.

and if the government, brian, can remain open, we'll see if sentiment rebounds >> what is the most surprising thing that stuck out to you? you always i love about you, steve, aside from your mad music skills, is that you're able to dig into something and pull out something that is a little bit surprising >> it's the magnitude of the declines, brian. you look at these 26-point declines, you just don't see it. you cover these things every quarter. you look at them, should we talk about the nape survey or not i get on embargoed basis and look it over and see 26 point declines, 25 point declines and go back in history and i see that we haven't had this in the 38-year history of the survey. those are the numbers i'm talking about. not so much the index level, which by the way are down pretty low, but it's these big changes. what happened? it really tells you that we can estimate a percentage point effect of something like a shutdown or estimate the percentage point effect of

tariffs. we can't estimate is the effect of sentiment of businesses and consumers. >> i'm going to ask you a question that you're going to love or hate are you ready? >> all right. >> you are a chief economics correspondent. you break down all these numbers. how much of the numbers coming out in the next week or two, all the stuff from december, is going to have that big old fat asterisk next to it because the stock market decline, the shutdown or whatever and people are going to say that's a one-off, ignore it >> so, the data is going to be a super fun sight. it's going to be all polluted, brian, if that's really your question. >> we live in new jersey we know from which you're talking. >> it's going to need some serious government -- big asterisks and serious assistance getting right. i was trying to puzzle through in my brain how they ever get this data, right as far as i can tell, the government statistical agencies do not have extra workers. not only do they have to go back and redo it, which has been done before but not over this length of time, they have to keep

current. so my question and we'll get some answers hopefully today when folks at the bea get in is not only what is the schedule for getting out the old stuff if they can get it out, b, does that influence future stuff? in other words, because they're doing december retail sales, does that mean january and/or february could be delayed as well it could be many months, brian, before it's all back to where it needs to be? >> the data is a super fun sight. i know it's 5:48 on a monday, but you have the line of the week already. >> long way to go, brian i think you'll have many opportunities and you'll almost certainly eclipse that one >> i hope not. steve, thank you, brother. >> sure. up next the venezuela factor, oil and focussed political tensions on the rise we'll tell you exactly how bad things have got in venezuela coming up in your rbi. first, we're setting you up for the huge week ahead. mad look at our mad mex wall we'll break out the one or two

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applebee's all you can eat is back. now with shrimp. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. ♪ good morning welcome back 5:50 here on the east coast. there's a live look. things are starting to get busy in times square. it's a busy week here for you and your money as well in fact, it is by far the busiest week of earnings season, more than 100 companies will release their numbers this week, but there's a few you really got to focus on, apple tomorrow. microsoft, mcdonald's, you got conoco phillips, amazon thursday, friday big week for oil exxon and chevron both on friday if that's not enough, you've also got trade talks kicking off with china the fed decision and rate meeting on wednesday and by the way, that big monthly jobs report on friday. let's now bring in mark temper, founder and ceo at strategic wealth partners. mark, good morning and welcome.

>> good morning. >> i'll ask you the same question i asked the guest at the top of the show, all that going on, huge week, what's the most important thing for you >> earnings without a doubt. you have 126 of the 500 companies in the s&p 500 reporting this week. microsoft, amazon, apple and if you think about it, these are all the companies that led us through this nine to ten-year bull market but these are also the companies that really led us into corrections so we want to see that these companies are able to post some pretty decent earnings reports, provide us with some good guidance so that the market can really resume its rally. i mean, you're looking at the three major catalysts that could propel this market is being earnings first and foremost. we want to see the fed remain dovish i don't know that we're close on a deal with china. we would like to see progress on that the number one most important thing is the earnings from the big companies i just mentioned. >> yeah. we have trade talks planned for

this wednesday, i believe, with the vice premier of china coming over and hopefully engaging in substantive conversations. if earnings are not great, guidance didn't great but there's optimism on trade, would that balance out >> it will what you've seen happen if you look back to january of last year, the forward multiple on the s&p was like 18. and then as we came in limping into january 1st of this yoear, that multiple had gone to 14 18 was too high. 14 is too low. the right number on the multiples probably about 16. so if we start to see some progress on trade. if the fed leads us to believe that they're willing to be more dovish, you'll see that multiple begin to expand back toward that 16 level i do think the market could rally if we get some good progress there. >> you still a tesla bear? >> yes i can't stand it >> you can't stand it? >> i love the product. so, i just want to go on the

record of saying i do love the product. i think it's a great product, but as far as the company is concerned, they have their issues you know, right now my biggest issue with them is their growth story. you know, they had tofy nagle their numbers last quarter to dplifr unpaid volunteers to deliver their cars now they're firing 7% of their staff and heard analysts trying to spin that as a positive but let's really try to figure out is everyone going to work for tesla for free no, that's not going to happen so their product quite frankly is too expensive they're halting production of some of their vehicles you have volkswagon coming out with a model 3 competitor next year that's half the price tesla has to begin to compete on price and have a billion dollars of debt coming due i think the challenges for tesla are significant. >> and that's why you're bringing us a stock pick today which is really interesting. it is o'reilly, we know the commercials, why do you think this is a good play in the not

anti-electrify indication of cars but you think it will be a lot slower than we think. >> i do. i mean, right now the electric vehicles might be a 2% of total vehicles i think when you look at the valuation of o'reilly, it's really pricing in 10% electric vehicles and it's just not going to happen i think it's overdone. tesla's recent moves validate that o'reilly's valuation have been under pressure if we're in the eighth inning of this bull market, auto production and sales slow. that's what we're hearing. as sales slow, more people are going to opt to fix their cars this is really a great slow economy stock from july of '07 to july of '09, the s&p was down 38%. o'reilly was up 4% so it really is an all-weather stock. i also think the amazon effect doesn't apply to all brick and mortar retailers there are some opportunities there. i think auto part stores are more insulated from amazon i don't think people are going to buy all the parts to fix their cars from amazon, which

gives you a good opportunity to get into o'reilly at a good valuation. >> i like it leave ending the show here with a real life stock pick mark teper, have a real life great week, buddy. take care. see you soon. >> you, too. time for your morning rbi most random and interesting thing has to do with the sad state of affairs in venezuela. the largest amount of oil reserves in the world. production continues to collapse because of a corrupt, inept government mismanagement, lack of money, lack of people oil production peaked at 3 1/2 million barrels in 1997. today venezuela produces just over 1 million barrels a day, 3 to 1 million in 20 years and that number is likely to fall dramatically with the new fight over the government. in fact, not inconceivable once the pride of latin american energy could see oil production go toward zero if there is no functions government

3 million venezuelans have left the country and those left have little food and no money many of those folks are rooting for juan guaido. "squawk box" is next it's for my family, its for my self, its for my future. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retire your risk dot org.

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good morning earnings season overdrive, the busiest week for quarterly results. we'll hear from dow component caterpillar this morning in 90 minutes. federal employees are heading back to work, but president trump is skeptical that lawmakers will strike a border wall deal that he could accept and candidate schultz former starbucks ceo how wart schultz laying the ground work for a white house run in 2020. i don't know who is more upset democrats are like, what it's monday, january 28th, 2019, "squawk box" begins right now.

♪ >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. ♪ good morning, welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live at the times square melissa lee. becky and andrew are off today our guest host this hour, ed lee, cnbc contributor and take a check at futures to see how bier setting up for what can be a very busy trading week looks like we'll open lower by 14, s&p 500, down 129 on the dow and down 42 on the nasdaq, probably the busiest week for earnings season this week. we also have fomc meeting wednesday with the press conference as well as jobs report on friday taking a check on the action overnight in asia, we've got also very big week on the asian front, that ahead of the china trade talks that are taking place here in thun