overall. >> dow's down 365. with when we came on the air we were down about 400 or so. you do have, not to shortchange these other companies by any stretch, fiezer tomorrow, which will be interesting, mcdonalds later this week. microsoft. the exchange begins with kelly evans right now. thank you, scott, hi, everybody, happy monday. here's what's ahead this hour, caterpillar, nvidia and china worries all hitting stocks today, how much is the global economy slowing? we'll talk about it. corporate profits and capital spending have both plunged lately will that be long lasting? if so, why the countdown is on to the super bowl and those big ads, why quiet may be the new loud, dom, which i would love some quiet on super bowl sunday turn down the noise. >> oh, come on, it's the biggest game in america for goodness saks kelly, talk about the down day for the overall markets. earlier today we were down about

400 points, only down 365 right now. but the s&p looked poise today snap a three will have day winning streak, watch those trades play out in the afternoon session. one of the big movers today on the macro side of things, crude oil down by 4%, off the worst levels of the session right now. this is fears over demand because of slowdowns in china and also the u.s. may be globally speaking, ways and of course supply concern after baker hughes wig counts last week on friday showed a boost to the number of active rigs. nvidia, the stock of the day, down 15%, weighing on the entire semiconductor industry group, that stock lower because it's preannouncing its kwourt quarter revenues will be lower than they thought they previously were, it reports earnings on february 14th big stock to watch today. >> huge story, dom, thanks, see you in a bit welcome to "the exchange," i'm kelly evans.

caterpillar's earnings sent the dow down the congressional budget office saying the cause of the government shutdown was $11 billion, although all but $3 billion of that should be recouped get more from bob pazonni, new york stock exchange, the earnings and the reaction shows maybe people have been too optimistic about global growth as negative as they've sounded lately. >> we're going to have to take the numbers down that's what nvidia and caterpillar are telling us heart of the earnings season, and three big issues matter, what moves the markets, first how dovish the fed and other central banks are going to be in the next few quarters. second, how positive will the trade talk outcome be? and finally, how much slower global growth are we actually seeing the message from nvidia and caterpillar today is that earnings are still too optimistic on global growth, particularly in china and that the numbers need to be reset downward a bit this is important because the big debate is whether we'll see an earnings recession.

two consecutive quarters in negative earnings growth, first quarter earnings down to below 2% growth. second quarter is only a little bit better, kelly, about 4%. if we hit zero on that you'll hear a lot of technicians squawking. back to you. >> wow, so earnings recession. bob, when's the last time we went through one of those? >> 2015 and early 2016 and importantly, the dow -- excuse me, the s&p was down 0.7% in 2015, the only down day other than 2018 in ten years earnings really move the market and are the primary determinant of where prices go. >> bob, thank you, down at the new york stock exchange. opening exchange, latest nab survey showing pessimism joe lavornia is sheer, a cnbc contributor and steve liesman. welcome to you both. steve, start with this survey. how circular are we getting? the survey is asking corporate america about their spending

plans and their attitudes about the economy? why are things slowing down. >> one is the outlook and the assessment of the current situation. there's emotion in both sides of it and feelings and sensibilities. when you ask somebody what's your current sales compared to how it was, that plunge, as well as -- >> who are these numbers, by the way? >> these are members of the national -- economics reporting how companies are doing. >> fortune 500 or small business. >> some of them are, some are medium size. a spectrum of companies. and the plans -- the current assessment of sales fell, current assessment of profits fell and these are not small declines i had to do a double take on these numbers. when you go back and look this survey's been around 38 years, the plunges are the first, second or third declines you've been seeing. >> we've seen in the past week, sentiment shocks of this whole

rebound, times like 2011, 2015-2016, what bob's talking about, the sentiment surveys plunge but the real data often doesn't follow how much of these, steve, is just a sentiment survey, which may be reflecting the stock market selloff >> well, i mean, if you asked somebody about their sales and they had -- and they're pessimistic about the future they would report current sales are down but both the current assessment, kelly and the future assessment, outlook for the next three months, both sides of the ledger plucked. >> ironically because the government shut down we're not getting hard data. we've had to rely on sentiment data. >> the shutdown may have marginal effect. it's probably more weather and seasonal issues. steve wrote the piece a couple years ago highlighting the government can't seem to get q1 correct. and with weather super cold in the midwest where there's a lot of transportation and distribution lanes for manufacturing, that weather cold, that's probably a bigger

factor than the government shutdown, personally. >> that's exactly what i was going to say so you actually think the bigger risk what weak first quarter gdp is the cold snap. >> the government can't get the data accurate. >> they're not getting the data out at all we've had to rely on the manufacturing surveys where people say what are your plans, how do you feel about things as opposed to getting the hard data. >> i tend to like the softer data more. the hard data, while it looks good when you go back and look at the figures, these numbers are revised. you could drive a truck through the first and final estimate sentiment is important and sentiment is what responds to markets. markets are more important than driving monetary policy than ever before. >> paul samuel soonson, the line markets have called nine of the last sessions. >> a lot better than economists.

>> but they're not perfect. >> i'm not sure that's right that they're better than economists i disagree on the issue of the data he's right, the data is revised. but if you think about that it means not only do we have to wait longer for the first print, now we've got to wait longer for the revision which means that you're -- i guess the definition of flying blind here in a lot of different ways, especially at a critical turning point i don't know, joe, that there's been any studies that show the soft data does a better job than the hard data, in not only tells us what's going to happen, but even telling us what's happening now. you use it all together. >> absolutely. but i just -- knowing, working with at a at a, a lot of series are lagging to coincident, they're not forward looking. sentiment is important, asset markets move, whether it's credit or equities, that tends to impact sentiment and therefore sentiment becomes

effective as an indicator. >> when we're talking about why might this slowdown be happening and with the fed meeting coming up this week, how much more should they be tightening? is pausing the right thing to do here yes, we're still low the interest rates are low historically speaking. but if you look at this chart it would suggest we've had more tightening overall, really going back to the volker days. >> this shows the shadow rate. they used it in the early qe years and said rates effectively were minus -- >> yeah, minus 2.5%. >> i'm not saying this is exactly the right way to look at monetary policy but it does suggest one channel by which the fed has tightened more than many people believe. >> does this factor the balance sheet reduction? >> no. we did a balance sheet calculation and found the balance sheet was worth an extra 50 basis points. having said that, the weakness

in housing and autos is broadly consistent with this sort of narrative. >> but is the housing a business cycle story? yes we know that's weak, but when you talk to people in the industry, they're calling it affordability crisis, last time housing was cyclical, it was the whole business cycle but is that as applicable this time around? >> honestly, i have to go back to school of honesty on the economics of the housing industry people say it's not affordable but prices won't come down and then they raise -- part of the reason they said it was not affordable was because interest rates were too low and that drove up prices. then interest rates went up and it didn't bring down prices. i'm a little bit lost. i tend to think that it's -- >> all right, joe -- >> i just defer to die ana olic. >> last word, mr. lavorgna. >> mortgage rates hit a high

last year, and delta on rates is important, and what steve was talking about, housing supply, there has been a lot of supply coming on the markets. certainly housing tells you the economy is not going to take off, at least not near term. >> housing never had a big down. it will have -- >> this time around. >> it will have a drag but not the kind of drag that you've had in a lot of up cycles where driven by lower rates and then stopped because rates went so high. >> the downturn we had in 2001 was in technology, equity led, housing did reasonably well. >> it's done that before, all right, we'll see what it's like this time around, guys, thank you both joe lavorgna and steve liesman. nvidia, stock plunging as much as 17% in early trade over chip stocks are gone tumbling today too let's bring in someone from new street research. you know chaplain?

>> yes. >> yes. >> great stuff he's more -- he covers communications we'll talk about nvidia, this when you know one has had huge reverberations, is this company specific, industry, what is it telling us about china and the end of crypto demand, what's going on here. >> four different things hurting nvidia these days. the first one is crypto currency market, a lot of gpus in 2018 that created an enormous market for $450 million of gain to minor. and suddenly the market disappeared at some point over the summer because it became uneconomic to currencies with gpus it threw into the channels another $450 million worth of

gaming gpus. >> they kept producing these chips, pierre, even when the end channels and the demand was slowing. so now they're stuck with a glut and that's weighing on their profitability for this year and what happens if crypto demand doesn't ever come back >> so i think the best assumption you can make at this stage is that crypto demand is never going to come back nvidia have to flush this path they have to face the competition from the secondhand market because a lot of minors are now selling back into the secondhand market, before the summer and so it's a period of digest nvidia has to face. >> what about gaming talk a little bit about what's happened there we've seen a deceleration in not just them, in some gaming companies, activation, blizzard, is this because fortnite has been successful? >> i see two moving parts in

gaming the first one is that the chinese consumer has weakened a lot. we've seen that with apple, more and more data points concerning that, and, of course, china is big for gaming it's a large chunk of the market so nvidia is hurt by this slowing demand in china, very cheerily then the second aspect of it is is that nvidia and -- in the fall new generation gpus, and that platform was supposed to be introduced to the next generation, ray tracing, higher quality to the pictures. you play with in games and the reception by the market of this technology so far has been disappointing so it's interesting on one hand game publishers have things in technology and have it in their road map, but only a very small number of games that are leveraging the technology.

that's the reason why consumers, gamers are waiting to buy the new technology that's hurting the gaming business. >> final question, observers are saying is nvidia telling that the chinese economy is slowing and therefore the entire stock market needs to be worried the chinese have loosened up on their rules, i guess, you would say about playing games, might that market come back, or is there a broader consumer demand issue? >> i think it's probably a broader consumer demand issue in china. because like the most regulations in gaming in china probably didn't affect much of the pc gaming market, it was more of a concern for internet gaming and mobile gaming than the pc market. >> okay. so then this is something going on all right, explains the reaction pierre thank you so much for joining us it's hurt the other chip stocks today too. there's a whole lot more ahead coming up on "the

exchange". >> announcer: coming up, trade tensions, shutdown negotiations, and the race for 2020 a look at how the turmoil in washington is making its way into the market. plus, the cat is out of the bag. caterpillar sinks as china weighs on results. is it a canary in the coal mine for what's ahead for the rest of the earnings season? and bundle up, the country is gearing for record breaking cold temperatures. so why is nat gas sinking? ♪ this is "the exchange" on cnbc i love you. servicenow works for you.

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we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. the 2020 presidential race heating up with former starbucks ceo howard schultz considering a bid for higher office, here's what he said last night on "60 minutes". >> i am seriously thinking of running for president. i will run as a centrist independent. outside of the two-party system. >> then in a tweet former new york mayor mike bloomberg urged schultz not to run, saying "in 2020 the great likelihood is that an independent would split the anti-trump vote and end up reelecting the president we can't afford to run that risk now. joining me are evan buy, former democratic senator from indiana,

and jeff greg, former republican senator, you've both been senators and governors jeff greg, i don't want to call you congressman. >> call me jud. >> all right, with your permission, sir. >> please. >> anyway, guys, thank you both very much for joining me. >> pleasure. >> jud, i will begin with you, and i know it's -- everyone says that howard schultz running would hurt the democratic vote, but is it possible he would split votes from president trump, from a lot of centrist republicans who don't want to vote for him >> you should remember that new hampshire's only 11 months away, we're talking fairly soon. and i think mike bloomberg's probably right, as a practical matter, i think any vote for an independent is probably not a chump vote any way and so i would be very surprised if that were to take votes from trump. the president is basically speaking to his base and his base isn't going to leave him. unfortunately for the democratic party they've got another

problem. everybody who's announced so far is running to the left of bernie sanders. and bernie sanders is a socialist. and, you know, guys like evan buy who are thoughtful, constructive and smart, who are really positive forces in the senate, for example, are not running for president in their party because they basically are being driven out of the party, or out of the mainstream of the party by this massive movement to what they call progressivism, which is essentially socialism. >> senator bias, you're shaking your head about that. >> thank you i could say the same back at you in terms of your great record of public service the energy in the democratic party no doubt about it is on the left and some things that were just considered to be out there a year or two ago are orthodoxy, a wealth tax or universal health care for all without regard to kind of how to pay for it some of these kind of things

but i don't think we've had everybody announce yet for example, and i agree with mike bloomberg's assessment of the politics of it, the real problem is the electoral college. if you carried a handful of states no way you're getting to the number you need to win the electoral college. you may throw it to the house of representatives. if a guy like mike bloomberg were to run -- >> as a democrat. >> he was a republican, then became an independent, now a democrat if you were to have someone like that, successful business background, successful executive experience that might reorient the party. so i think judd's right, the energy's on the left, clearly squ someone on the far left who will emerge, but there may be a centrist finalist as well, particularly mike bloomberg. >> you could argue there's republicans like john kasich who could run as democrats and attract the vote, but the real

energy, we saw this with president trump, all of those who dismissed the energy around trump overlooked how strong the support for him ultimately was is the same true of the very sort of far left part of the democratic party right now if so, what should howard schultz or any other -- we talk about jamie dimon sometimes. is there a party for guys like this at all? >> well, there used to be two parties, they were the republican party and the democratic party but regrettably the rise of the base, which has been driven primarily by social media and the unusually loud megaphone has given people on the margins of the political spectrum has essentially driven the moderate, thoughtful center right politics and center left politics off the playing field. and it's very disappointing. now, maybe evan's right, he's certainly -- on a lot of issues, if mike bloomberg runs he could get the nomination of the democratic party i don't think anybody's going to get the nomination besides

president trump, although he may be challenged. and if a moderate democrat, say a mike bloomberg or joe biden were to run, i think president trump would have some issues getting reelected. however, if a person who's essentially a socialist runs, and all the people who are running right now are progressive, quote, democratic socialists, i think trump -- president trump's going to have a very strong case to the american people. because i don't think the american people have gone off the rails. i still think the american people are center right, center left populists. >> or i like to think about it walking, a right foot, a left foot, further right, then you need to go further left. senator bayh, one topic howard schultz said it was important, not a perfect democrat, the national debt, the deficit, fiscal prudence is very important to him why is it not important to the rest of america right now? >> well, i know it's important to many americans when you talk to them about it it's just not at the top of their agenda when it comes to voting

if interest rates go up, if the economy starts going down and perception because of the debt then people tend to focus. that was what animated ross perot's candidacy back in the day when he ran as an independent and got 20% of the vote judd cares about it, a former governor who used to balance the budget i care about it. it's a good policy to get our budget in order. but when either side is in, the democrats tend to spend more and run up the deficit, republicans tend to cut taxes and run up the deficit. not much of an issue for the political elite because it's not a voting issue for most folks until it starts manifesting itself in a bad economy. >> senator greg, ironically the markets have been fine with the debt levels we've had and it's leading to some economists saying it doesn't matter as much as we thought it did and it's giving the people the opportunity to then say maybe then we can offer more public programs on the right or on the left, backed by, you know, borrowing, because we have the leeway, we're a wealthy country,

and, you know, and so what's the problem? >> well, as boles was fond of saying, we're able to tolerate this because we're the best horse in the glue factory. the rest of the world has sovereign debt that's larger or approaching ours, the fact we're the world's largest economy gives us the protection of people saying, well, the united states is a strong nation, if i'm going to protect my assets, i'm going to put my assets there. but at some point the apple falls from the tree. we've got -- last week we passed $22 trillion in national debt. we're headed to a situation where our national gdp is going to be exceeded by our national debt fairly soon these are not tolerable numbers. and you have to pay the piper some day and you're going to have a fiscal crisis at that point, and it will be a crisis over the value of the dollar, i think, at that point people will notice but at that point it will be too late to take the correction and

not have it be a very traumatic event. >> everyone can agree that howard schultz has the right idea but he's going to go nowhere, that's the message of the day. guys, thank you both, appreciate you joining me. >> thank you, kelly. coming up, tracking students, we're not talking about academic performance, we're talking about tracking students online before they even get accepted we have the details of this straight ahead. plus, big buyers and big trends in this year's super bowl ads with just six days to go and ads starngti to leak tell you what to expect this sunday "the exchange" is back in two. duncan just protected his family

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welcome back to "the exchange," movers this our, the ibb, nasdaq bio tech etf down today by 2% thousand, worst day since december, but still on track for its best month since july of 2016 then shares of pg&e, higher after reports that an investor group offered a plan to avoid bankruptcy up 1% right now. and shares of valle are sinking, following the deadly dam collapse at one of its properties in brazil last week down 16.5% here's your update for this hour white house director to have sta teejic communications speaking with reporters outside the white house this morning, portraying president trump's reopening of the government on friday in positive terms.

>> i think we've moved the ball forward at this moment i think the mere fact we have these countries coming together on wednesday and seriously looking at resources, and seriously having a discussion about border security, and wanting to find a solution and a legislative fix is a step in the right direction. saudi crown prince mohammad bin salman signing an agreement which aims to lure as much as $425 billion in new foreign investment, this to boost domestic manufacturing, mining, infrastructure, and energy sectors. wayne newton's up close and personal show opens in its new home tonight, the classic cleopatra's barge in caesar's palace, marking the entertainer's 60th year in las vegas. he's 76 years old. he was 16 years old when he first took to las vegas stages, that's why they call him, you know, kelly, mr. las vegas. >> 16, so he was a prodigy >> i would say he was an

overachiever, for sure. >> still is. contessa, thank you. contessa brewer. it was interesting to talk to the nvidia guy just now and ask him about china, how much of nvidia's demand for that was related to that video game ban they tried, versus consumer slowing and he said it's consumer slowing. >> you have to wonder the degree to which things slowed down in china. in mid-november, they revised their fourth quarter outrook it's the second time they're saying fourth quarter will come in worse in mid-november they were saying things are going to be worse and now they're saying things are even worse. >> this reminds me of what you pointed out about apple, when it first talked in november about the outlook for china, it was, you know, fine and then they came out and said, no, actually it's deteriorating. >> nvidia will have the full earnings report on february 14th but for all these conference calls we're going to have in the next week or so, when it comes to apple, when it comes to boeing this week, we're all going to be listening and

looking for any sort of signs that things actually turned. >> true in the last weeks or -- >> whether they turned up or things got worse we want to qualify that downturn, that we are all expecting in china to some degree. >> and clearly it wasn't fully priced in, at least to these two names this morning. >> we'll be talking about nvidia as well as cat at the top of the hour too. a lot more coming up ahead on "the exchange." >> announcer: ahead, are colleges tracking applicants' e-mail ge's rally this year may have been a head fe.ak and the biggest threat to journalism is tech monopolies? a, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.

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welcome back, it's time for rapid fire, we'll catch you up on a few more headlines, should be on your radar today, joining me are dominic chu morgan, we asked you to be here, talk about caterpillar sliding, they're talking about the slowdown in china sales, this is the one topic everyone wants to know more about. >> they're forecasting sales for china, about 5% to 10% of overall revenue are going to be

flat this year looking at the call, big headlines, sales and volumes expected to be up modestly, versus a 16.5% expectation from the street this year it's a company that had been growing, very aggressively last couple years, dealer inventory expected to be flat, china flat. they are calling out strength, continued strength in north america. but there's uncertainties in the europe/mideast market. >> the stock is down 10%. >> big move. >> caterpillar was already cheap, this wasn't nvidia, it's not a company who's been a high flier and a cult favorite or anything. >> absolutely. this is one of those names, like boeing, like 3 m, united tech, it's a big multinational manufacturer that's a lightning rod hike it or not for the u.s./china trade tensions in every headline we get. that being said if you look at a stock chart of caterpillar last five years it's like this. so -- >> sort of a hockey puck. >> the worry now and why you're seeing the selloff is because -- >> hockey stick. >> is that growth cycle peaking,

we're now going to start to see sales go like this >> this is a stock that got hit hard during the downturn last quarter. we've gained 17% from the christmas eve lows through friday's session so right now to put it in context you're at a level where you were just at two weeks ago it's not like the stock even with the 10% pullback has been priced in any way shape or form. >> they didn't up their guidance, held steady with it, missed the guidance today. that's a big piece. >> everyone focuses on china and the asia pacific market. but in the construction industry side there was a geography that did worse, and that was latin america. >> i don't think that's getting better, not in venezuela. here we go again, shares of ge are falling today, analyst steven tusa saying their deal is bad for shareholders ge may change the way it

reports. that could spook the street and make people feel more clarity. >> it's something people have been speaking about with ge for years now, even my father as an investor over the decades in ge often complained how complex ge was as an organization and how difficult it was to kind of glean anything from the financial reports they put out there. if there is, hypothetically, what you're referring to is maybe the possibility, they start reporting things mainline on a generally accepted accounting principles basis, or gaap, would that simplify things that takes out the adjustments ge, biting the bullet so to speak right now, simplifying its earnings report will look terrible early on but provide a base for more transparent and higher quality earnings reports going forward. i i would reiterate, it's been called on for ge for years now, and morgan knows better than anybody. she covers this company. it's a big deal if it were to come to fruition.

>> stocks down again today back under 9, morgan. >> still one of the best performers in the s&p year to date, but keep in mind we're coming off these crazy depressed levels but you're right, dom, investors and analysts have been calling for a change to the accounting for ge for quite some time see if the new ceo announces anything like that. >> or lab tech. >> make the case that multiple it gets is the result the fact it's not transparent if it becomes more transparent -- >> increase from there. here's the story everyone wants to talk about, more kids applying to college than ever, and some colleges are using technology to see how interested the applicants really are. they can tell how quickly the student spends reading the e-mail, and using the level of interest. >> if you rsvp yes to an event and don't show up, they're all monitoring you now. >> i would have lost my job if that were a problem. >> i just think these kids think about now how much you have to

do to make yourself competitive to apply to college. of course -- >> you have to -- >> full resumes, some have internships already in high school showing this demonstrated interest, while it's important, i understand why they want to know how interested students are, it's one more thing added onto the plate of these younger kids. >> at least the students will now know this was happening without their knowledge pbasically, and click the rink and rsvp and i guess show up. >> at first glance it was icky, second glance i'm all for this because college is so competitive. and if it comes down to two students equally kwafd and one wants it more, if you have a way to quantify that, whiebt go f--y not go for it. >> this is all about leverage, acceptance rates that are so miniscule right now. if the education paradigm in this country changes away from

four-year universities maybe the students get more leverage in that and they can actually have a little bit more. >> my other takeaway on this, i don't think it's colleges, the e-mails we open, every link we're clicking on that is all now being tracked and that is a little bit frightening but, again, something we all need to know about, not just for college, i think it's happening all over the place. up next after megalayoffs from the likes of buzzfeed and the huffington post, alexandria of cau ocasio -- the fault of facebook and google >> i certainly understand why she's continuing to call out these big tech names one thing i did find interesting in reading more about this, buzzfeed of course one of the companies that did a round of layoffs basically is considering or has apparently proposed merging with some of these other big companies that share news that's perfect for social media, and also what does that say about what we're consuming on social media, that buzzfeed was a part of these layoffs?

that news is tailor made to be shared on facebook, on twitter. >> click bait. >> where do we go from here? >> if facebook and google are now sort of where people are reading their news, especially younger people and getting their news, just a different way of saying it, does there need to be more oversight there's a reason, dom, why newspapers evolved the way they did over hundreds of years. >> the brands of news that have been out there, been around the longest time are there for a reason because they become credible sources of news and opinion and thoughts that help people craft their own opinions and thoughts when we talk about established publications, like "the wall street journal," or "the new york times," or cnbc, or fox news or anybody else, the reason why people go to these places, there's trust. that's the big key. >> i don't know if there's a second act or third act, if their pivot to video can be the way out, but it seems like the

oxygen is getting sucked out of the space. >> we've seen two business models emerge for traditional news media, pay walls, and you've seen free advertiser supported model, if you're going with that second, you need to have clicks and eyeballs and if you want those eyeballs you need to go to places like facebook and thus, there is an argument to be made by aoc on many others, on both sides of the aisle i might add. >> unbelievable. i'm going to mention this, as record cold temperatures hit chicago, thieves are targeting people wearing expensive canada goose jackets and taking their coats by force i understand that canada goose jackets are a target of theft, beats headphones and anything else that's showy and expensive. but if they're stealing them because they're cold, guys, that's heartbreaking. >> i don't know how to feel about this story because -- >> i don't think they're stealing them because it's cold, they're stealing them because it's a status symbol, and yes, it is cold, there's probably a market for it. i don't know who they're selling it to -- >> donate your jackets, everybody, that's the message,

donate the expensive ones too, kate, dom, megan, thank you all. concerns about slowing down in china, are there more companies waiting in the wings that could also be ready to point the finger that and more is ahead on "the exchange." maybe you'd mellow out a bit if you got geico to help you with your renters insurance. oh, geico helps with renters insurance? good to know. yeah, and they could save you a lot of money. wow, suddenly i feel so relieved. you guys are fired. get to know geico and see how much you could save on renters insurance.

welcome back, we're off the lows as they say, dow's down about 270 right now. we're down more than 400 at the session lows jitters after caterpillar missed on earnings this morning, and nvidia slashed its fourth quarter revenue guides both blaming weakness in china we have art here, chief market strategist, glum news here, but how bad is it out there in china, do you think? >> it's interesting when the earnings season started our biggest fear was companies were going to actually say, listen, there's too much uncertainty, so my guidance is lackluster for 2019 caterpillar showed the fourth quarter showed down enough that they had to adjust down and miss a number that's pretty alarming,

actually we know the chinese economy has slowed significantly, and their economic data continues to decelerate i'm more concerned about the guidance for the balance of the earnings season. nvidia is the norm. >> super busy on the earnings front, big tech names and global companies like mcdonald's, do you expect anybody with china facing business to say the same? nike did not tell us that, that's the one big american brand that has said we have not seen a slowing in china. >> and proctor to. >> there you go. >> it's not clear and concise. >> it would suggest you can separate the wheat from the chaff, so to speak, you can say nike and proctor are executing better than nvidia and caterpillar. >> demand was down in the fourth quarter and unless and until we see improvement in china, they're down for 2019. nvidia is different, it's cyclical. >> they're talking about the chinese consumer

we spoke about this at the top of the hour. but the analyst there said what happened, we're talking about basically consumer pc demand, slow that's not caterpillar mining equipment. >> correct that's the difference, business segments that would affect mcdonald's adds well. it's execution if nike continues to be that aspirational brand and china continues to strive for that, they can execute and do well starbucks falls into that category probably. where that's more difficult is where you have selection, caterpillar, if the industrial business is coming down, we should look at caterpillar and think about what's happening in raw material pricing and there's a correlation. the china demand plays into both things, we should have known better. >> now we know from what cat said the gloominess wasn't fully priced in, at least to their business and some of the other names you're looking at, do you say, okay, i recommend investors sidestep china exposure until we have more clarity on what's happening there or do you say,

it's going to be bumpy and lumpy, but you've got to be in china for the long run, is that still true >> i think it is true. when you think about it, kelly, it's hard to avoid, half of s&p 500 is business overseas, the great majority coming out of china. seeing china exposure touches half the stocks in the world to the extent you have to say what stops this, what stops this decline, getting constructive news on trade, at the end of this deadline, or even before. >> it will overshadow. >> i think that will help. if you were to say we're not escalating, closer to a deal, some concerns will -- >> it's a long way to march 1. maybe we'll news out of the meeting. thanks art hogan, appreciate it. advertisers have taken notice, how the ads are anngchgi for that growing segment of the audience next for women.

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selling for record $5.25 million, up just a hair from last year. the usual suspects are back. anheuser busch with a record 6.5 minutes of ad time with at least five car makers including audi and mercedes one targeting women, featuring women. serena williams with bumables, the ball in her court ad and olay with the first ever super bowl ad with sarah michelle gellar and celebrities are again, a big trend we've counted at least a dozen ads with stars including a stella artois spot with jeff bridges and sarah jessica parker and chance the rapper for its dorito commercial. no ads for cannabis products cbs rejected one for medical marijuana. >> i wish the back street boys were doing a halftime show but that's just me i was reading about michelob ultra doing an ad with zoey

kravitz with asmr, let's listen to what asmr is and then i'll ask you about it >> thank you so much for joining me today. >> thank you to michelle she allowed us to use that little snippet, julia, because she makes big bucks from these youtube videos and so people are now doing this in super bowl ads. why? >> so asmr is this phenomenon on youtube. it's really taken off in the last several years where people are just, a certain group of people are very much obsessed with listening to these quiet sounds, the sound of paper rustling, people whispering or moving their fingernails on something and the teaser for this super bowl ad at this out and so many super bowl ads are loud and about shouting and loud music, this one is quiet, so

kind of counterprogramming, having zoe kravitz have her quiet voice why people should drink this beer and it's really trying to draw more sophisticated audience back from spirits to beer. >> autonomous sensory meridian response let's play that video one more time we lost it thank you. we'll be playing it again though natural impasgas prices falg the a four month low why net gas is lower, not higher toy. rit tethda you're probably learning about medicare and supplemental insurance. medicare is great, but it doesn't cover everything - only about 80% of your part b medicare costs, which means you may have to pay for the rest. that's where medicare supplement insurance comes in: to help pay for some of what medicare doesn't. learn how an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by united healthcare insurance company might be the right choice for you. a free decision guide is a great place to start.

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tens of millions of people are facing what could be the coldest weather in 20 years, normally natural gas prices would spike on that but the opposite is happening today. jim joining me with institutional services with how net gas is dropping today. >> usually, we look at the ten-day forecast and see what the trend is but although we see nasty cold in the midwest, remember, the midwest matters in the rest of the country because that's where the most natural gas is used. only three days and then the forecast softens after that but the story really begins back in

november when we had that huge spike up based on when it was unseasonably cold and that hedge fund with the calls up to $5 so the volatility went through january and brought it back down now but focused on the fact that the supplies seem to have replenished and we don't think these three or four days are enough to chew through it. >> you don't think the cold snap, i guess, and the market doesn't think it's that long lasting. this is, after this, then what happens? are we talking about warmer than normal temperatures? >> it seems by the end of the week, we're supposed to get 35s in the midwest so i would say normal temperatures too and i shocked by this too. i see a day with a negative 20 degrees, i expect nat gas to rally. it was coming off the inflated highs based on non-fundamental factors, so i think that played a part too and if you look at that yearlong trend, it's responded very well to that upward sloping trend line and to

me, if it goes above $3, settles there maybe a couple of days in a row, i think it continues on higher. >> thank you so much joining me with more on that that does it for "the exchange," everybody. i'm tempted to try, where's the microphone i'm going to go join melissa and bill on "power lunch" right now. >> thanks, kelly see you in a moment. i'm melissa lee. bill in for tyler today. new at 2:00, two big warnings taking down the bulls. what caterpillar is signaling and what that means for chips and technology and a monster week ahead for the markets the biggest week of earnings first fed rate decision of 2018. >> i'm gibill griffeth. stocks tumbling from the start a busy week.