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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  January 31, 2019 1:00pm-2:01pm EST

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great sin. i watched this morning somebody trying to justify walls are immoral. if walls are immoral maybe we should take down all of the walls that are built right now you will see a mess like you have never seen before i always say this. i was elected partially on this issue, not as much as people say but partially on this issue. it is a very important issue nothing to dowith elections. nothing to do with votes only to do with common sense and only to do with security if we don't put up a barrier or wall -- in the old days they built them they looked terrible. now they look good if we don't put up a physical barrier you can forget it. our country will be a very unsafe place people are coming in drugs are coming in. human trafficking is coming in things are happening that won't happen after the wall is
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construct constructed. we are building a lot of wachlt we are building large sections and the wall is getting built. i would like to build it even faster it is getting built and getting built very substantially >> do you have an agreement on the time and place -- [ inaudible question ] >> yes >> can you share it? >> we are going to very soon we'll be announcing it early next week. >> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> and they very much want the meeting. i think they really want it. again, remember, north korea was a whole different story. when i came to office many people thought we were going to war with north korea i would sit and listen and i would read people saying go to war with north korea
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well, you lose potentially hundreds of millions it is literally right off of their wall >> about the wall. [ inaudible question ] >> it was one of mine. look, i accomplished the military i accomplished the tax cuts. i accomplished the regulation cuts i accomplished so much we are the number one economy in the whole world. companies are pouring into our country. i have accomplished so much. now they say if he doesn't get the wall they make it the only issue. it's not going to work because they are building the wall the wall is happening right now.
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>> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> the other things only really work if you have the physical barrier. without the physical barrier you have them drones around the 12,000 people walking in from honduras and el salvador no i want it to be a real deal. i could do a deal with china we are open to them. they have to be open to us so it would be so easy for us to make a deal with china it wouldn't be a real deal i could get them to buy more corn than they have ever bought. they would be so happy if i did
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that they will do that but in even higher numbers we are going to do a lot of other things remember, we are taking in billions and billions of dollars from china we never took in 10 cents from china. china is being charged tremendous amounts of money for the privilege of coming in and doing what they do to our country. they are being charged a tremendous amount of money >> we' we'll cover everything. okay >> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> trade deals won't kick in for a while. it should get approved quickly nafta was one of the worst deals ever made. i said i will terminate nafta or negotiate a new deal
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we negotiated a new deal if you went back to prenafta okay but i won't allow nafta it was a horrible deal for our country. look at the scars where you go to new england and ohio and north carolina you have factories that are still empty from nafta pre-nafta we had huge surpluses with mexico. with nafta we have huge deficits we lose $100 billion a year on trade with mexico. does that sound good it has been going on for many years. i stopped it a lot >> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> no. look could i have done it
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differently? not really i think by having the shutdown we have set the table for where we are now if i didn't do the shutdown people couldn't know, wouldn't understand the subject now they understand the subject. they understand what a crisis it is it is called setting the table like in deal making or setting the stage. we have set the stage for what will happen on the 15th of february i don't think they are going to make a deal. i see what's happening they have saying let's do this that's okay but if they are not going to get money for the wall it's not going to work if it's not going to work the politicians are wasting a lot of time okay >> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> i would do it we have money, just so you understand we are building the wall right now. nobody reports it because it's not really exciting. but let me just tell you, we are building the wall right now. it is going up fairly rapidly.
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we are renovating amounts of wall it is being beautifully renovated. in some places we had to replace it we renovate some, replace some but it is going up in all different forms. thank you very much. thank you. >> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> we'll see what happens on february 15th. >> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> i'm not concerned >> reporter: [ inaudible question ] >> excuse me i didn't say that. i said i'm waiting until february 15th. on february 15th the committee will come back and if they don't have a wall i don't even want to waste my time reading what they have because it's a waste of time the only thing that works for security and safety for our country is a wall. when you couple the wall the sensors and drones and all of
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these other things, that works as a combination if you don't have a wall they are all wasting their time it's just politics thank you all very much. thank you very much. >> thank you >> that was president trump speaking at the white house and addressing the issues of border security and the trade talks welcome to the exchange, by the way. more reaction on what we have just heard from the president and insisting on this wall and the shutdown kind of a back burner issue top of mine really is what progress there is or isn't and whether this deal needs to be sealed with the president. >> yeah. they right the president here continuing to press his case on a number of fronts it gives you the sense of how many balls in the air this president has right now. negotiations ongoing with count down clocks on a number of fronts including domestically in
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terms of the spending deal that deadline is february 15th we have march 1st deadline coming up with the chinese for negotiations on trade. the president suggesting that the final deal will be made by the president of china not suggesting that it is going to travel to china. we'll wait and see whether the white house announces anything along those lines in the coming days he wants to make a major deal and finally negotiations on north korea, the president suggesting he will meet with kim jong un. he said that's not really a secret the question is not exactly where. he said that announcement is coming soon. it has high stakes negotiations
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on three major fronts that will effect the outcome of the first term >> thank you let's bring in dan mitchell along with cnbc who is here with me onset welcome to you both. you're saying you see the outlines forming here? >> i think there's body language to indicate they want to see a deal there have been enough around them we know whatthe broad outlines would be. they will promise not to rip off intellectual property. >> the promise part of that is probably the most significant. are we to really believe that is going to stop happening? >> there will be some verbiage about verification how they achieve that is going to be the hard part. it happens when individual businesses in the united states
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decide they will reinvest in china. >> i think i'll ask what you think on this but as much as companies don't want it stolen i think they don't want to miss out on the market in china before >> that's the tradeoff they have always faced 1.4 billion new consumers. they were willing to give up some of that older technology. they don't think it is nearly worth it when you look at foreign investment into china it has not been as much as you would have expected to the degree china has grown. there could have been more >> what do you think happens if we get a deal? michelle was saying more structural forums in finance and we agree to maybe even reverse course a little bit. 30% of steel aand aluminum is wiped out since the tariffs were imposed last year. could it be a big breakthrough for them >> the first thing to understand
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i think is that china's economy is very fragile right now. even though they wouldn't publicly state it they are in the mood to make a deal. the economy is fragile we are shooting ourselves in the foot as much as we are shooting them the economy is fragile they liberalized their economy open to the world markets but have a tremendous amount of ownism >> and about the command and control issues one of the topics is the extent to which they try to drive this growth which kind of is reaching the end of its rope people say look, it's unlikely the chinese are ever going to suggest they would stop doing that, right? why should they? >> it brings up the key issue in trade. if the chinese government will have subsidized companies engaging in trade that's not a
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general wine market environment. some say who cares if they want to subsidize we should simply thank them for it. on the other hand american workers get hurt by about i would say one thing about what trump is doing she taking the wrong approach. i wish he had worked with the japanese and europeans i think it would have been a much more effective venue. >> right >> he brings up very good points the degree to which the chinese government intervenes and inveesingly intervenes within the country. nick has a new book out called the state strikes back take a look at this. the yellow you see there, that's the loans going to nonfinancial companies in the private sector. so it's fallen
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the reds are the loans going to state subsidized sector. it is way up this is a government that's turned its back over the last ten years. they have to decide what they want to be do they want to be a market economy or don't they? when they make that decision we can decide how we will interact with them. >> how much longer can it continue if it becomes such a command and control economy? >> if you look at the economic freedom of the world i think china is ranked number 106 or number 107 so they are way more than france they are way more than grease. it is not as bad as venezuela or north korea. the fact they did not continue and the fact they are now retreating -- and by the way, the private companies in china aren't necessarily really
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private. now we know that it is not happening but the chinese market to some extent is still there. what are businesses supposed to do what should our president be doing? >> one thing i would say is that i don't think american companies quite realize the extent to which they were doing a deal which they were going to let china take their intellectual property we are still on the same situation we were in 10, 15, 20 years ago american companies want to be there. it is in the interest of companies but also america that china liberalizes and we haven't even touched on the fact that the tpp was designed to pressure
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china to make reforms. we sort of threw away that opportunity which is in some sense bad but maybe in a few sense is good. trump doesn't understand trade so that complicates the situation. >> but he does understand leverage he is using u.s. leverage in a way no president has ever done before >> so we get a short-term deal then what? >> we wait to see what the chinese actually do. if the chinese really want to grow and really want foreign investment they will stop stealing intellectual property the grand group of all of the businesses that decide yes or no -- >> that's the choice they face >> they have to want to. >> all right thank you both great stuff. appreciate your time coming up here earnings report now that the fed has given the all clear facebook giving a huge boost to the
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nasdaq today amazon is up as well we'll tell you what to expect from amazon's earnings tonight can he win investors over and is the move not to get bigger but to get huge? we'll explain the exchanges. back in two. - i think the best company's succeed as a team
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welcome back to the exchange stocks are about to finish off a great month. the s&p is having its best january since 1989 it is on pace since october of 2011 new home sales came in much better than kpaexpected it all sounds pretty good. bond yields are sinking. usually that's a bad sign. what's going on? we are hovering at 266 continuing to move what we really fell from graces. it is and a quarter all the way down what's going on
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we'll be at the lowest yield since early 2018 i think the answer is two or threefold. by the fed really cementing the notion of a because many are connecting a many think it will slap up more on our shores we have abemployment report after a long shutdown where we have had data. i think also a nervousness that the expect stations are half the 312,000 jobs we had last month finally if you look overseas under 20 basis points. i think all of that is definitely putting pressure although the yield curve doesn't have a lot of wiggles while this drop in rates is occurring >> stay right there. bob joining us as you're trying to figure out where to put money most of the
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time people would have thought the stock market is going up i will see losses and bonds but all of a sudden that's not happening. >> the uncertainty seems to have moved away they were we responsible now we have a sense they will be more accommodative >> does it mean you should stay and should you hold all of these? they are so low. >> comparatively rates are very attractive we are not just talkingabout u.s. bond rates, nondollar rates. these are all attractive areas if you want to build a portfolio you can. >> i know you guys can kind of put it together in the right way. far lot of people they are looking at the 401ks do we need to be scared of bonds here the economy is still going strong
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we talked about 3% wage gains. >> it is actually our view we think that the maximum could be is definitely higher than where we are you can get higher yields by moving out this is very bullish for equities we just added today, matter of fact, exposure to asian equities we want to see our clients move into immerging markets here. >> now having set this up you could argue the rest of the year unless it really startsto jump it turns to earnings doesn't it? >> yeah. the problem i have is there's a little too much happy talk what about the global economic
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slowdown the comments are not that bad. maybe it's manageable. what about the earnings? they are lower and probably going to be positive so on this we regained all of the losses we are at 2,700. a lot are at 27 or 2,800 16 times forward earnings. that sounds like a nice number if you have 10% earnings growth. we are talking about 0 to 5% earnings growth. a lot of happy talk here >> so david mentioned he thinks it could go up is the market any where near that or has it completely thrown in the towel >> i think that i would look at rates as an added bonus. it will be to the upside i'm not sure if it's happy talk. i think it's quite realistic
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talk the fed moved its rate from 025 to 225 to 250. europe still has a deposit rate of -40 basis points. we could slide into a recession. >> thank you very much appreciate it very much. let's flip over to sue she has our news update. >> hi. take a look at this. it is kind of hard to make out but that is a highway in buffalo new york where today's windchill is making it feel like -25 >> a drug maker that sells
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ibuprofen over concerns it may contain higher levels than the label indicates. they have pulled effected bottles from the shelves a new study says e-cigarettes are twice as effective as nicotine, gum or patches when it come to kicking the habit. a joke between super bowl bound patriots team over their age has now morphed into limited edition beer it is available starting today at the boston tap room just another reason to visit boston >> i thought they were supposed to sell -- >> i don't know. i think it's a great riff. >> yes >> too old too slow beer suits
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me well. >> road trip >> yeah. let's go to boston >> you got it. back to you. >> thank you >> i'm join bid tyler. about 30 minutes to go to power lunch. >> we'll take a look in the next hour at a proposal to basically resurrect the state tax. it would start to kick in in probatable assets and move up higher to 77%. it will be a hot political debate over the next year or so. it all but went away >> and i wonder about the uncertainty of this. i was friends. whether it is business or some of the personal tax provisions that were in the most recent law
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they only persist far few more years anyway if you start doing this it is very hard for people and businesses to plan when you don't know what the certainty is >> boom time for accountants >> we will also talk to michael seinfield. he give us a look at where they are putting their money. it might not surprise you they are very interested in cannabis these days >> and gold. >> and gold. gold has been moving up. >> it has. >> thank you so much here is what else is ahead on the exchange. coming up facebook defends the controversial research app plus amazon, out with earnings after the bell. is the stock prime for a big move and the exchange meets the price is right the howard schultz edition
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welcome back here with me are welcome to everybody. i should say come on down.
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i'll explain that in a minute. sandberg defending the program to collect users data by paying them to install research apps on their phone. here is what she told us >> this is a facebook research app. it is very clear to the people that participate in it there is a rigorous consent and people are compensated. it's a market research program shashs are soaring today apple very clearly said in our eco system here is how you play. they disallowed this sort of thing. they tried to do this same sort of thing before. >> for most people, most facebook users isn't it a bit like where you're getting paid to provide a company with daily
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activity >> except when you're 13 years old. >> yes >> i would have been interested to see the break down by age sk >> i think she said 80% were older than teenagers >> people were not understanding the type of access they were granting facebook. >> i think they did understand it >> i think on the lower end if they look back and go i wanted to 20 bucks. i don't know why she sticks around i think she has been -- she was for every job for running for -- has that passed? why does she stick around? >> because she is doing a good job. google does this too to grant this level of access the issue is this is apple's
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device apple users understand that and expect a certain level of protection. >> i'm sure she does a good job. this company gets beat up so much it's not like the earlier days >> they are. >> it works. >> it works. >> for now how about intel? it is lower after they say swan will stay on permanently >> i was one of the people he sat down with and said not interested he wasn't interested he loved the cso job he fell in love with the company. the board asked and he became ceo. >> is there any truth to the rumors they wanted someone else and they turned to him >> i don't know specifically one way or the other whether it is
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true i think in these sort of searches there can be lots they feel pretty good about execution and trying to fix some of the issues that he got with >> it is surprising the number of people who were approached for the job but didn't take it you have to wonder why not is it a broken company is it a pay issue? why do you think they would have turned it down >> it is a market cap of $222 billion >> i don't know if it is true. i think a lot of people would like to be ceo of intel. i think it is picky and a culture that can be pretty secretive and strange to outsiders. they have been loathed to pick outsiders in a lot of cases too. the full story hasn't been told yet. i haven't done all of my reporting either
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>> how about shares of general electric surging after they reported a big revenue it put the stock back above $10 forthe first time since november >> yeah. investors have been betting on a ge turn around for years you have this new chief executive who perhaps didn't give as much negative news as they have in the past. they focused a bit more on how it is still in progress. it seems lielk investors are jumping to conclusions >> bad deals were made along the way. questions about whether they complete completely shored up the webook. >> he said we'll give you financial targets when we are
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ready. >> yeah. i don't think so you'll like them when we see them >> right >> yeah. but we hope they can turn things around next howard schultz was recently stumped by the price of che cheerios >> mow much does an 18 ounce box of cheerios cost >> i don't know. >> you ask us budgets for the va we'll ask you questions about cheerio cheeri cheerios >> i don't eat them. i'm sorry. >> so let's put ourselves to the test did we tell you this was coming? >> no. >> we'll tell you if we can stump everybody here about the price as typical things as well. the first is a gallon of milk. this is a gallon of whole milk
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the national average what do you think it is? >> around 4 bucks. >> i buy organic >> depends where you buy it, $2.50. >> around $3.50. >> name that price as we do. it is $3.89 per gallon >> around 4 bucks. >> she is shopping at a bargain basement everyone else was pretty close next up is raisin bran for an 18.7 ounce box of raisin bran, the price is >> some $4 at some place and 7 at others. this one i will say $4.29. >> $3.75 >> show that price and it is $2.99. that's how we know you guys live in manhattan
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>> yeah. and finally how about tide, the detergent. it is 40 fluid ounce from walmart. >> $8. >> $7. >> we get the pods now i don't know what the jar -- >> that's what my producer said. >> i will say $5.99. skbr okay. the price is $5.24 what this proves is you guys are very much in touch >> even the wealth reporter. >> even the wealth reporter. >> i think you did better than anybody else do you buy your groceries? >> i do. i do >> howard schultz, his problem isn't so much he didn't know the price. it's that he didn't handle the question very well nobody expects you to know how much an 18 ounce box he could have said shehere is wt i eat. i don't know >> what do you think -- what would someone else have done
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>> you have the bloomberg, schultz and trump, you say how much is it to rent a yacht how much is 8 carat pink diamond cost and then we would know. >> i have just the person in mind to host this debate robert frank >> thank you all very much the broadcast rights aren't up for sale until 2022. they looking to strike a number of deals to compete in the likes of amazon. the companies and media merger mix, that's next your employees must love you. [ chuckles ] thank you. you could say that. i love you. servicenow works for you.
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it is go big or go home. it is teaming up with more than viacom the folks behind fixer upper,
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mo moonshiners and more alex is here with me along with bob johnson, founder of bet if look around at various competitors, comcast, at and t, they are not big enough to compete for sports rights, not big enough to compete for content rights the end result is how do i get bigger maybe step one is buying cviacom the question is if it is step one who is step two? >> discovery denied it is in sales talks. it is sort of a denial on a
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strong man >> what do you think about this? is this kind of sale inevitable? >> it has always been said content is king. i think it's more so now when you get these platforms and tech companies playing in looking at acquiring content for across marketing and another kind for customers. the only warning i give is that it does not relate to true synergy. it is in the a proving thing in terms of investment. every program you make can hit or miss. to me the idea is two reasons. it is to compete but also value
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to be acquired >> what are do you think is? how do you compete with netflix. we'll be talking about 100 billion dlarsz how does somebody else compete >> the fact is you can't compete against a content company just as another content company this is -- as i said, content creation is a creative exercise. it's not a financial exercise. you have got to figure out what your long-term strategy. i think acquiring content to leverage your ability to get more revenue out of the platforms, out at distribution platform makes sense ultimately it is a value driver because at some point there will be a consolidation by the people with more capital to spend and that's going to come from people who have a ulti-platform business of content customer
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advertising. >> yes so if this is going towards four major players who are the buyers ultimately going to be and for everybody else else is this just a windfall >> we don't know the answer to that disney will be a buyer comcast will be a buyer. >> what about apple? is. >> maybe apple maybe amazon netflix could be a buyer for a library. we have not seen that yet. it has been speculated for years. it hasn't happened yet >> is this a good reason to be a shareholder in one of these smaller media companies have haven't done well on their own >> there is some baked into them already. i think there's an assumption that viacom will merge you have to look and say is there enough that that's a target it has been speculated for years and years an years hasn't been acquired yet >> all right
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thank you. appreciate it very much. >> take care sharesover home builders are murjs as they posted the biggest one month jump since 1992. we'll break down what's behind this monster move next
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welcome back how's this new home sales up for the best numbers since 1992 but all the way back in november diana olick joins us now to explain, why are we getting the numbers now, di? >> of course, because of the government shutdown but i want to put this big number in perspective. the census said sales of newly built homes jumped 16.9% since october and november sales down nearly 8% year over year several analysts who run these numbers themselves say their counts show a much weaker sales market in december and november. a huge error on the november data, plus or minus 20% and the
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report recommends looking at a three month average which drops the number down below the one year average we know from the big public builders who recently reported earnings that sales weakened significantly at the end of the year the census showed a 12% drop in the median price of a home sold in november. that part is huge. builders are not exactly lowering prices by much but they are a little and that median likely shows that the bulk of the sales that are happening are for the cheapest homes that are available. kelly? >> i mean, the latest anecdotes have been pretty awful the home builders the eother da and then southern california home sales down 20% in december to the lowest in 11 years. >> new home sales in california fell that was the only region of the country that saw a drop in new home sales month to month and that's because, and you have a lot of builder in the west as well, also, the priciest region. again, it's that affordability issue. i cannot say it enough. >> i'm glad, because yesterday, i couldn't believe you were outside, diana >> i brought the house inside.
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>> i need to understand. in a neighborhood, it has to be like the worst day of the year. >> this is the day this is the day to get inside. >> it looks sunny and bright makes me warmer just looking at it diana, thank you so much shares in amazon fell, the key numbers to listen for next (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. [kno♪king]
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welcome back amazon is set to report earnings after the bell today the stock is up ahead of that. for more on what to expect, let's bring in tuna amobi. top level, what are the earnings levels you're looking for? >> sure. i think it can be guided 10% to 20% revenue growth a good chance to outperform the high end of that range the holiday sales should point to another strong holiday season which we saw with the best for retailers and amazon continuing to share bodes well and you look at the amazon web services division i think that area continues to
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outperform on the bottom, i think they've guided to anywhere from 3% to 5% operating margins, implied in the guidance the one potential swing factor here is the potential impact of the wage increases that we saw starting november, but we expect that could have anywhere from 50 to 80 business points negative impact but remember in their favor last year, we saw prime membership increase about 20%. so that is almost pure profitability. so there is a number of potential here that should offset the potential delusiwage increases. >> much better at the turn of the year amazon, i think, has to show its important holiday quarter is accelerating. >> yeah. the trade could be back. you look at facebook did pretty well and netflix did pretty well amazon did a lot of free shipping promotion
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how much did it cost them? might investors be disappointed about that i think the cloud set-up looks pretty good, especially considering how well microsoft did with azure so that's positive but i think those costs, content acquisition, whole foods, free shipping costs, that could always ding you a bit. how do investors feel about that given the run-up we've seen? >> tuna, what's your price rating on the stock? >> 12 month high price of $2,000 i think as john mentioned, there is sentiment with cost pressures from shipping and also the whole fan universe but i would argue amazon somewhat navigated those issues better than facebook but we're still recommending facebook, my colleague raised the target price but overall, i think the one thing i would point to, the free shipping that they introduced the last holiday to even non-prime members, that was a major catalyst that we saw with tens of millions of members
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around the world, actually, were trying out prime membership. that continues to be a major kind of underpinning >> what's going on with the back and forth between him, fedex, and ups is up nicely today, put up good numbers but both of those shippers have been down and there's been a lot of discussion about amazon now doing a lot of that last mile delivery does that become something that weighs on their performance? >> on amazon's performance i don't think it weighs on their performance but demonstrates how much leverage amazon has they've got the relationship with the consumer. they've got so much trust, i think, as far as amazon delivery, there's some consumers that are willing to use the ring cam and let people into their houses and then on the other side, the shippers are really relying on e-commerce a lot in their commentary, not all amazon but amazon is a big piece of nah. >> tuna, anything to add to that >> shipping is the next frontier with the battle with amazon and
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the incumbents, ups, fedex, et cetera amazon spending north of 25% of revenue on shipping and fulfillment. that's dropped dramatically by the last few years and the company continue to make significant investment in logistics to reduce dpeependenc and pass a lot of savings to consumers and that's why you see them in all of this kind of low prices across the board and i would argue strengthening their competitive position as well. >> tuna, we'll see if it gets back up to the 2000 price target with the results thank you. tuna amobi cfra my final exchange, john, i learned how cheap tide is on walmart.com. i just looked on amazon and basically make it impossible for you to get a 40 ounce jug of detergent and if you try, like $10 or $13 >> they like to send you lightweight little things.
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>> $5.25 walmart or walmart.com walmart.com. that's got to be a loss leader that's not sustainable if amazon can't do it, walmart can't do it. everyone will order it now and ruin their quarter that does it for "the exchange" for me and i'll join tyler and melissa on "power lunch" in a moment that begins right now. >> kelly, thank you very much and see you in a moment. i'm tyler mathisen welcome everyone along with melissa lee, here's what's new at 2:00 president trump meeting china's top trade negotiator over the next hour. so will we get a deal before a key tariff deadline? plus, the fed giving investors seemingly exactly what they wanted is it a pause or a full stop in the interest rate cycle? too much optimism in this market we'll take a look at that. plus, 77% tax on the wealthy we will tell you about a new bill being unveiled in dc as "power lunch" starts right now

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