terms have proven the best of the election cycle years. >> feels like longer. >> with an average of i think it's 16.7% returns and 15 out of 17 of those cycles since 1950 have been higher. >> just carry that around? >> wow amazing. thank you for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ good afternoon very warm welcome to the "closing bell. i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm sara eisen. president trump gearing up to meet with the vice premier of china at the white house this hour we'll bring you the very latest on the trade talks. plus, one hour away from amazon's earnings after the break. we'll break it down with the panel. 59 minutes and 30 seconds left until the close of today's trade. check in to see how we're doing. the dow is down.

otherwise it's been another positive day the s&p up 0.7%. the nasdaq up over 1%. >> appropriate way to finish off the monthof january, set to be the best month for the s&p in years with a gain of almost 8% we have lots of earnings moving this market to tell you about. yulia boar stin, phil lebeau and seema mody but first from washington the comments of the president on china. eamon? >> reporter: yes we are minutes away from a meeting in the oval office officials here at the white house suggested about a week ago that this could be a determinetive meeting, very, very important in the chinese negotiations larry kudlow said that about a week ago an recent days cautioning to lower expectations around the meeting of 30 days before the march 1st deadline

after today's session. earlier today, here at the white house, the president gave us a look at his thinking about the meeting and where china talks stand right now. here's what he said. >> we're taking in billions of dollars. frankly, we are creating a lot of industry. but the rate goes from 10% to 25% on march 1st so they would like to do it. i'd like to accommodate them if we can i'd like to accommodate china if we can get the deal done it is a lot of work. that is comprehensive deal. >> reporter: so the president said it's lot of work, a very comprehensive deal would like to accommodate china if he could and said the final deal isnegotiated between himself and xi jinping, the president of china personally. not clear whether they'll meet in person or where or when but it looks like we could get an announcement later this afternoon if things go very, very well in this meeting. if not, expect no announcement at all today, guys >> when he says that i'd like to

accommodate china, there are plenty as we know of u.s. businesses that would like for the trade war to end, as well, suffering as a result of the tariffs. apple, caterpillar, you name it. if he lobbied by big business? >> reporter: they are. the president sees this as very, very personal between himself and xi jinping businesses expressed frustration to the white house officials here at the white house are aware of some of the complaints and some of the things you hear from companies like apple, caterpillar. i have asked the treasury secretary about them and larry cud lore abo kudlow about them and they're aware of the pain expensed and the president feels that that short-term pain is worth it for a long-term deal and that's the answer that you get publicly from all the officials here at the white house asking them about the complaints of american ceos. >> looks like a hot, warm, sunny day behind you.

>> reporter: i have the super hand warmers here with me. it is great here. >> i thought we only had that for davos. >> see you later on in the show do out in. final trading of january a strong month for the market. bob pisani with the look of biggest winners and losers. >> we were dancing in the streets because some of the biggest losers of 2018 are the biggest gainers of 2019. look at the sectors. so what had a terrible year in 2018 bank stops and energy stocks and industrials didn't do well guess what's leading in 2019 banks and industrials and energy what had a good year in 2018 health care. when's lagging in 2019 health care. that is old trick. buy the losers and it worked well so far. look at this, up almost 8% this is the best january since 1987 it's the fourth best january

since 1950 so why aren't i dancing in the streets with everybody else? too much happy talk right now for my taste talks that the fed's not going to raise rates ever again. trade talks high hopes the global slowdown. what happened to that? it's going to be manageable. there's a slowdown what about earnings? going down and still positive. see how everybody's spinning everything positive? very, very expensive stock market right now 2700 people have 2700 for the full year all right. maybe i'm a curmudgeon. >> thank you for that. let's dive into the earnings movers with julia boorstin. >> revenue and earnings growth far stronger than expected and users returning to growth in europe after two months of stagnation there take a look to cheryl sandberg

told me about the quarter. >> i think a question people have for us right now is we're making such big investments in safety and security. can we make the investments while people continue the use our products and while we continue to grow our business and i think this quarter shows that we can do both. >> we got a reminder that the fight continues for facebook just in the last hour when facebook announced it removed hundreds of pages and accounts tied to iran for what it calls inauthentic behavior wall street buying in at least nine analysts increasing price tar gets of stories which is hitting 500 million daily active users and 2 million advertisers. back over to you. >> julia, thank you very much for that meantime, shares of tesla volatile following the earnings report and another executive departure. phil lebeau has the details in chicago. >> the stock is under pressure for most of the day, not dramatic pressure and trading

lower partially because it's a mixed bag earnings report. the positive news is that it was a profitable quarter and same time the company improved the liquidity. what worry investors a couple of things first of all, the cfo saying that he will be retiring in the next couple of months. the vp of finance moving up into the cfo job and there's some uncertainty on wall street about whether or not that continuity will be broken there and then the question about whether or not tesla can ramp up production in china as elon musk indicated in the conference call yesterday saying by the end of the year we believe that we will have the plant up and running in shanghai and build 3,000 model 3s per week by the end of the this year in china guys, that's really aggressive in the auto industry to get a plant up and running and cranking out that many vehicles. look at deliveries of model 3s on the conference call he was asked what do you see as the average price of a model 3, he

said $42,000 at volume, so that's down from the low 50s, guys certainly not $35,000. >> phil, talk to me about how we came around to the announcement about the departure of the cfo on the earnings call clearly the fact that it came so close to the end of the call do you think that the company still does not realize the importance of things like that or that they were trying to sort of hide it and bury beneath other headlines? >> i don't think they were trying to bury it and hide it. i do think it speaks to one of the plamain complaints of tesla from wall street they're hit and miss of working the street there are times they're really good about sayingthis is what' coming, we are forecasting it, so that the investors are not spooked and scared and there are other things like yesterday where they announce at the end of the call, thank you, we'll talk to you in three months and

there's a retirement wait a second. should have been at the beginning of the call. so that's -- i mean, that is one of the chief complaints that you will hear of analysts is that sometimes they're good and a lot of times, though, they can do a better job. >> yeah. it was pretty bizarre. phil, thank you. tesla shares down about a percent. shares of ge, though, are soaring today on the back of its earnings report this morning seema mody digging through that. >> sara, there's some encouragement. seeing profits rise in the fourth quarter and reached a tentative $1.5 billion settlement with the justice department stemming from its now defunct subprime mortgage business but the company's power vertical still struggling with revenues falling about 25% chief executive larry culp saying the strategy is clear deleverage the balance sheet and strengthen the businesses starting with power and spoke to

improving ge's credit rating and returning to a dividend that is in line with peers, no mention of a time line signs of progress being made in ge's turn around helping shares outperform up about 12%. but it's still got a ways to go, down about 40% in the past one year, wilfred. >> thank you very much for that. zwru jumping 12%. let's talk markets on the "closing bell" exchange today. rick, i'm going to start with you. talk us through the move in yields we have seentoday and the shape of the curve, how it's likely to play out from here. >> it is fascinatelining, wilf. so this morning we walk in at 8:30 eastern and claims jump 53,000 that's a big move. especially when you're starting with 200 just think about it in percentage terms that led to a very weak chicago

pmi. weakest in two years we did have a nice jump in new home sales but i think that what's going on is the long end of the curve is monitoring the data. the short end of the curve is thinking about the data, as well, but almost for different reasons. remember, there was a time when we talked data dependent but it was a smith. this is looking at everything and trying to gauge how to adjust policy. the markets and investors have to go right along with him and we have had parallel shifts. 2-year moved down because weak chicago pmi and calls for tomorrow's jobs report to be half the gains of last month makes the fed not look more aggressive and the long end took that economic data and ran with it, as well. there's a parallel shift and by watching the curve i think what we'll learn is when the data starts to separate itself from

maybe what the fed will do seeing the curve flatten or steepen and right now it really has remained mostly the same the other variable that i think is very important to get into now is that dropping yields and dropping dollar are making many think that the move gets legs. certainly we could melt more but in the final analysis i really do think if we're not going in to recession, and i don't believe we are, there will be a bigger move to the upside but it's going to have to be fueled on fresh data with a look at fourth quarter gdp and the catch-up numbers because claims is realtime and new home sales is november. >> good point, rick. renee, the other thing besides the fed and the data is earnings what sort of messages are you getting? >> this quarter so far has been kind of up and down. we talked about that and industrials have been hit hard we have grave concerns of what the first half of this year will

look like, honestly. end of the last year there was a volatile time. earnings were kind of all over the place and we now are going to have this additional impact with the federal government shutdown the longest in history so the initial impact that we see with gdp growth, for example, for the fourth quarter is going to be down a tenth of a percent. for the first quarter of the year, down .2. there's a lot of companies i think very negatively impacted by what has happened then we have in the next 60 days a few other elements brexit the china talks are still going on and hopefully we don't get back into another fed shutdown. so i'm concerned that the earnings will be very, very negative and the -- we're waiting now for opportunity to get back into the market cash was the best asset class last year. and probably for the first half of this year it will be, too so once we hit that i think

we'll be ready to go. >> been in a strong month for stocks. >> i know. i know that's just january. so it's still kind of bouncing back off of that but i am very clear and have already talked to clients and so we are kind of moving into more of a safe mode right now. >> hmm. >> are you defensive in terms of your stock selection give us a couple that you like. >> yeah. pretty defensive generally when you have a slowdown like i expect will happen, people need to have the essentials they still need to eat they need to have access to communication ties as well as drinks so one of our big players is verizon which is definitely the u.s.'s largest internet and wi-fi provider pays a really nice dividend. i'm a good dividend girl we also like pfizer. health care i know is lagging so

far for this month they were strong last year this is just 30 days into 2019 so i'm looking at pfizer which still also has made a decision to focus more on oncology platforms and they own a percentage of the largest global pet pharmaceutical company and getting good revenues from there. amazon which owns whole foods, that's been a great place to be and then lastly for the drinks is constellation brands. and they're very strong anyway but they have a little bit of a twist in that they have made a partnership, equity partnership with the cannabis related company and there is a lot of interest in that industry and we're seeing that with some of the major players like coca-cola, as well constellation brands i think you get a little bit of both so those are the areas we want to be. >> okay. we'll leave it there thank you very much, renee and rick amazon due out with the earnings after the close we'll tell you key things to watch and expert analysis.

sheryl sandberg weighing in on facebook's latest data scandal. >> we know we have work to do to make sure people's data is protected. it is your information you pit it on facebook you need to know what's happening. ivy e're going do ask a top data pracexpert what else facebook can do to protect your information.

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welcome back to the "closing bell." 41 minutes after trade the dow is in the red but the s&p and nasdaq higher. nasdaq in particular up a full 1%. communication services best performing group in the market thanks in part to facebook on pace for its best day in two years. after reporting a beat on earnings yesterday, julia boorstin with sheryl sandberg who defended the company after the research application forced off of apple's app store for mining data from consenting teenagers. listen. >> in this case, the people that chose to participate in this program did but we definitely have work to do and we have done it we're going to continue to do

it as soon as we realized we weren't in compliance we pulled it the important thing is that the people involved in that research project knew they were involved and consented. >> joining us now is mark rotenberg of electronic privacy information center, the privacy expert, mark the epic battle between apple and facebook making it into the app store. does apple have a point calling out facebook for violating privacy policy for its users >> yes i think apple had a very good case against facebook. facebook was using a feature on the app store that's for internal development apps. it is not supposed to be consumer facing an it certainly shouldn't have targeted young kids and teenagers and really misusing the apple platform to try to gather that data from kids so i think apple was absolutely right to tell facebook basically they lost

their credentials. >> and, marc, clearly this was facebook breaking apple's rules and gives legitimacy and grounds to apple's complaint towards facebook in defense of facebook, sheryl sandberg was right saying in the sound bite that the individuals were aware of this in fact, they were even paid in order to open up their phones for this sort of data mining she said in that bite we just heard, they were -- the people knew they were involved and consented. is that almost to say that in all these other scandals that the users weren't aware and weren't consenting for the data they were taking off them? >> well, i mean, to be clear, i don't think users were fully aware. the type of personal data that was being tracked by facebook included location data, included private messages, included website visits that's very personal data and we are talking about consent from

minors so even in this instance actually don't agree with ms. sandberg she had adequate consent and part of a larger problem with facebook is that oftentimes they collect user data the users don't fully understand what information they're providing or how it's going to be used and that leads to growing concerns about privacy among the users and they don't have an alternative. which is also important to keep in mind with this company. if you're not happy about facebook as a social network service you really don't have many places to go. >> i mean, we saw that in the earnings report last night they have a record number of users and profits and revenues are doing just fine. the stock is up 11%, advertisers are not pulling out, marc. where does this all go >> well, i think the advertisers are happybecause i think they are, you know, able to target through the facebook platform,

you know, audiences for their products and services. but i think the users are in a very difficult position right now and i think it's one of the reasons you see increasing focus on the federal trade commission because the ftc had a consent order against facebook since 2011 that consent order actually does impose some obligations on what the company can do and the big question that people are asking is, you know, when and will the ftc take action to enforce the consent order? >> what's the answer to that >> well, i think it's going to happen soon. in fact, there was some speculation just a few weeks ago that the ftc was nearing a final decision about the judgment against facebook many people are expecting a record breaking fine but i think the more interesting question actually is whether the ftc chooses to take additional

actions. the commission could, for example, spin off what's app and instagram. those are actually two components of the company that mark zuckerberg announced recently he would like to more tightly integrate on the platform of course, many people see that as not only violating the consent order but also raising concerns of competition and innovation so the ftc has an interesting opportunity right now with the investigation there's also, of course, the cambridge analytica matter which was the basis of congressional hearings back in april for the commission to act and as i said i think you would see both a substantial fine and also perhaps some effort to spin off what's app and instagram >> all right, marc we leave it there but certainly this conversation will be continued. marc rotenberg

everybody's watching how facebook deals. still ahead, president trump about to sit down with china's vice premier to talk trade. plus, a new app is connecting shareholders to management debuting last night on tesla's earnings call. the co-founder joins us to tay explain how the platform really works. al. al. that's why we designed capital one cafes. you can get savings and checking accounts with no fees or minimums. and one of america's best savings rates. to top it off, you can open one from anywhere in 5 minutes. this isn't a typical bank. this is banking reimagined. what's in your wallet?

♪ sir still to come here on "closing bell," the ceo of international paper joins us for results and the impact of the trade war. shares of amazon up 15% this year and can momentum continue t 'll find out when the earnings hithe bell stick around we're back after this. but with opportunity comes risk. and to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. we help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage interest rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. all so they can manage their risks and move forward. it's simply a matter of following the signs. they all lead here. cme group - how the world advances.

♪ welcome back to the "closing bell." topper forming sector is communication services thanks to charter communications, facebook, a few earnings stories in there. consumer staples having a good day. so are utilities financials underperforming with technology some of the action in the bond market weighing on that group. >> time now for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> hello, everyone here's what's happening at this hour border agents inspecting a tractor trailer made the biggest fentanyl bust ever it has a street value of $3.5 million. well, take a look at this. it may look like antarctica but it's new york's hudson river that video taken from a coast

guard cutter breaking up ice the midwest and the northeast have at least one more day of frigid temperatures brought on by the polar vortex. the ncaa sanctioning missouri football after a tutor did homework and completed exams for the student athletes they're hit with a ban from next year's postseason and 5% reduction in scholarships. we are getting the first look at king tut's tomb following a 10-year restoration program. they removed dust and installed a new ventilation system the tomb was damaged from tourists you are up to date that's the news update back down to you. >> that river looked cold. >> it is freezing. it's actually colder here than it is in antarctica. there you have it. >> crazy. >> thank you. president trump is meets with the vice premier of china our eamon javers is in

washington with the latest. >> reporter: they'll open up the top of the meeting to reporters so we'll see some video and still pictures of the two with their delegations in the oval office that could come any time now the meeting is not officially kicked off as far as we know but a short time ago we did see liu he of china and the delegations walking into the west wing preparing for the meeting, a rather delegation there. not an indication of who all will be involved in the oval office meeting and might be bringing more people into the entourage to then attend the oval office meeting and seeing the pictures here any time now and, look, officials here have said that this meeting will be determinetive in terms of the negotiations between the united states and the chinese going forward and then in the past 24 hours heard them ratchet down expectations so some mixed

signals here the president himself said ultimately the real deal, the final deal has to be signed if it is signed between himself and xi jinping personally. we don't know where or when a meeting would take place at this point. >> okay. great stuff. thank you very much. we look forward to seeing those pictures and videos of the top of their meeting. right. let's move it on international paper beating earnings estimates today that stock up 17% for january. up .3% the ceo joins us now in an exclusive interview. thank you for joining us. >> good afternoon, wilfred nice to be with you. >> wanted to pick up on the topic we were just discussing with eamon trying the trade. you export a lot of your output, some of which to china have you seen a meaningful slowdown in demand from china and do you think if so related to the trade war >> it's a great question, wilfred. we export about 27% of the products we make in the u.s. all over the world about a third of that goes to

china and other parts of asia but mostly to china. and also, a lot of our u.s. customers send their -- some of their products to china so we have a direct impact and an indirect impact. and we have seen some slowing generally related to the slowing of the chinese economy that's our direct impact for the products we sell directly to china and indirectly some of our customers in the u.s. who export food and other products to china have seen some slowdown in their business because of the economy or in some cases because of tariffs. it is not material yet but we have noticed it, especially in the second half of the fourth quarter. >> you know, you sell everything from, you know, what goes into baby diapers to what goes into industrial packaging what are you seeing on the cost side of things are costs still rising will you have to pass that on? >> so, costs are rising. especially in the area of transportation and logistics that's mainly a north american comment. and regionally we have some

issues with wood costs it has to do with weather and how easy or hard it is to go and harvest wood and then we have some general energy and other inputs related to energy like chemicals we've largely been able to recover that through 2018. we'll have to see what happens as we go into 2019 i've often said, though, input costs that have upward pressure in our business tend to go along with a stronger demand signal and stronger economy so we tend to be able to manage through that pretty well. >> i guess, mark, a lot of people would think that moves towards more environmentally friendly products and green products would be bad for a paper company but you've developed new product that is there's structural growth from that theme >> that's absolutely right, wilfred. when you think about our business model, most of the products start with renewable natural sources. we process that and make most of our own energy from the

residuals and that's carbon neutral bio mass that generates our electricity to make our products and then in many cases take the core gaited box, 90% plus of kor you gaited boxes are back into the stream after their use. we have a sustainable business model and end product. >> i'm curious about your take on the u.s. economy, mark, and, you know, the debate that's going on right now about whether we have seen the peak and how much we're actually slowing into 2019. >> so as i think about the way we went through the fourth quarter, we had another strong quarter. the best example i have is our packaging business that puts boxes into almost every type of commerce we have seen january still pretty strong. against a very difficult comp from january of '18. i think some of the uncertainty around the trade issues you mentioned at the beginning and some of our domestic types of issues always adds some concern and we see a strong economy from

a consumer and consumption basis and so i -- i don't know anymore than anyone else about how to predict the whole future on it but what we see right now and in the order book remains pretty healthy. >> what about europe >> wilfred, europe is a little bit slower i think in our case we are mostly in southern europe so we're a little bit more insulated from some of the issues in germany and france and we don't have much in the uk but definitely through the part -- through 2018 europe has slowed a bit for us and i think that's just a reflection of the general economic activity. >> all right, mark good to check in with you about your business and your take on the global economy always a good tell mark sutton, international paper, ceo. we have about 22 minutes here to go before the closing bell a mixed picture on wall street dow's lower by 30 points but the s&p 500 going strong

the nasdaq's up more than a percent. capping off what appears to be a very strong month for january. shares of mondelez, what the ceo told me why he's not senned oco of a slowdown in china either. after the bell, more earnings you don't want do miss those

welcome back to the "closing bell." we have got 18 minutes left of trade. the dow is lower s&p up 0.7%. nasdaq up over 1%. deutsche banc, trading down 3% or 4%. this is, of course, the u.s.

adr. this is on reports of a possible government brokered merger with commerce bank. that's been on the table for six months or so but a report today suggesting that unless the results turn around very quickly that will be forced through and with the very depressed share prices for db and commerzbank it will solidify and of course they report tomorrow so again a really crucial set of numbers. ceo for about a year and got a couple quarters to prove he can turn it around before this might be taken out of his hands. >> is life easier or harder for european banks these days? looks like the ecb won't exit quickly. >> negative 0.4% as rick points out, exactly rates aren't going up. the economy -- italy in a recession this morning technical recession with did gdp numbers. not looking up. >> my mover today is mondelez.

shares trading higher. up about 5% after earnings came in in line after the bell last night. i talked to the mondelez ceo today saying the company is not seeing an economic from the economic slowdown in china listen. >> online, e-commerce is big in china. growing over 70% in 2018 for us. so we don't necessarily experience in our categories that slowdown of the chinese economy and again i think has to be with the fact of basic commodity as it relates to what the consumer want dos eat on a day to dais basis so we don't tend to be affected that much by it >> part of the point, wilfred, trying to get something on the consumer from him but he said if there's a slowdown don't mean people give up chocolate and might go there more. >> the point of the sound bite of things like starbucks in contrast to companies like apple

is that there's still that structural growth in china of the growing kind of working class becoming middle class and consumers having more disposable income there's a whole host of people selling relatively cheap products that are still moving into that category. >> shopping online and still see that explosive growth in online channels and heard similar comments from procter & gamble not seeing the slowdown in those sorts of products. it is different than an iphone or a heavy machinery or a durable. >> i like seeing that video of the purple cadbury's branding. >> i thought you would comment on oreos. >> i brought you back cadbury last year. >> you didn't bring me back any chocolate from davos, switzerland. >> no time. >> there for five days no time to shop? >> all work. >> for your co-anchor. in the break, sara and i

we have 15 minutes left of trade. the dow down and improving the s&p, up. the close is just 15 minutes away. and we're also 15 minutes away from amazon's earnings at the top of the hour. the numbers to watch for when the "closing bell" comes right back ♪ ♪ wake up early, o. ♪ slap on some cologne ♪ i'm 85 and i wanna go home ♪ ♪ just got a job ♪ as a lifeguard in savannah ♪ ♪ i'm 85 and i wanna go home ♪ ♪ dropping sick beats, they call me dj nana ♪ ♪ 85 and i wanna go don't get mad. get e*trade, kiddo.

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a get your questions answered by awesome experts store. it's a now there's one store that connects your life like never before store. the xfinity store is here. and it's simple, easy, awesome. welcome back to the "closing bell." dow is lower only by 20 points but the s&p 500 is higher by .75%. most groups are up on the day. the nasdaq roaring up more than 1% facebook's a big part of the story but other earnings winners like charter communications. here's the year to date leaders in the s&p 500 xerox, general electric off of a good quarter today getting a 34% bounce and with the theme that bob mentioned at the top of the hour of some of the

underperformers of last years. i would put energy in that basket, as well. oil prices for the month of january up 18% best january ever. >> but the other point i would make, though, about this great month is differentiation yes, a continuation of the bounce back in the late december stage and some sectors are fractionally up. others 11% and then within the banks middle ground overall citigroup up well over 25% and others - >> a lot of it on earnings >> micro related again not just big macro themes. amazon gearing up to report earnings in a couple of minutes. d. bosa has that. >> it's often overshadowed by north america and the far more profitable aws and margins improving and according to legendary investor bill miller, excuse me, it could be turning a corner

>> international still losing money and i think that in the next couple of years that will turn and amazon's doing so many different things and so dominant and it's about 20% below its highs so i think it's attractive in here. >> reporter: amazon's advertising business is another segment to watch included in a line called other revenue which has seen triple digit growth over the last three quarters and not only growing quickly but it's higher margin than many other businesses the big picture, though, this is the holiday quarter and we already know that it was a record one for online sales. that should bode well for amazon and might remember actually lowered its guidance for this quarter in october. >> the talk around amazon is always whether we look for signs of competition, e-commerce like walmart.com or in the cloud business what are you reading from the analysts and where should we look to see if that's making a mark >> reporter: i think you hit the nail on the head there it's aws, most profitable part

of the amazon's business and remember its margins are improving in this business and international. facing a lot of competition in places like india in particular. >> d., thank you very much we look forward to the numbers due in about ten minute's time. let's get a market flash on steel companies. seema has that story >> as the u.s./china trade discussions continue it is worth highlighting the underperformance of steel and aluminum companies which have come under pressure due to bad earnings, slowdown and the imposition of tariffs. since the tariffs announced last year on january 11th, the seven biggest names in the steel and aluminum sector erased over $17 billion in market cap or roughly 30%. perhaps not the outcome this administration was hoping for so some names to keep an eye on back to you. >> great stuff thank you very much for that we have 7:30 left of the trading session. we'll be back with the closing

countdown shortly. s&p on pace for its best january since 1989 best month since i think 2015. after the bell, we'll dive into the january effect and what it signals for the market for the rest of 2019 we are back after that break ♪

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the nasdaq outperforming all day. berhe sha coombs has a look at the biggest movers. >> outperforming the month, as well the nasdaq on pace for the best month here could be perhaps since 2011 if these gains hold up and it is really the big caps that have been outperforming today and this month really interestingly it's the fang names that helped move up facebook and amazon alone are responsible for about a third of the nasdaq gains this month and despite the fact of correction territory in the case of facebook small caps fared even better in terms of gains russell 2000, a lot of that led by bio techs bio techs having a huge month this month and incredible considering the fact of bio techs that were not able to go public because of the shutdown and concerns of how the shutdown will impact drug approvals,

nonetheless, among the best performers this month. and in fact, when you look at the overall bounce back it's some of the worst performers in the fourth quarter that have really seen people come back in and apparently find some value or at least bid them up this month. chips this month up 10%, very strong performance here, wilf, at the nasdaq all around back over to you. >> bertha, thank you very much for that strong performance in the nasdaq pretty good for the s&p 500, as well up almost a percent here we are having a nice rally into the close. the dow at this moment also into positive territory it's been negative most of the session so nicenice final trades taking them positive territory as bertha said the nasdaq leads the charge, though. dow 30 stocks for you to explain why the dow is the laggard of the major indices. individual names that suffer as you can see.

goldman sachs, visa in particular dow dupont in particular the dow as i said in positive territory approaching the close. communications services doing very well. charter and facebook accounting for that staples and utilities doing well and technology and materials at the bottom why is financial suffering yields slipped significantly today after the dovish tone of the fed yesterday. there's the 10-year yield and see slipping down to 2.63% steady slippage throughout the session. bob pisani joins me. 1:30 left of trade. >> that yield is very interesting. we have been on a downward trend to december and it's interesting how the bulls are now in control of the narrative instead of, oh, this is signifying the economy will slow down but the fed is seeing inflation is low see how the narrative flipped around with the happy talk i keep

bringing up. everybody is in a good mood right now. >> nonetheless, the dovish out of the fed is better than the ecb or japan. >> absolutely. >> relatively more positive. >> one thing, we are in positive territory in the dow the s&p has spurted up in the last few minutes and a reuters headline, china's liu here in washington on trade talks, says he hopes to accelerate 90-day for deal this is a reuters headline the talks are going well is the implication and accounts for the spurt we have seen up there. >> the president's tweet an hour or so ago didn't have such a quite positive tone and expecting to hear from them in the oval office in the next hour or so. >> we started the month cowering in the month we are ending dancing in the streets here up 8%. best january since 1987. fourth percent january since 1950 by the time this is over, might

be the third best january. >> very positive, indeed, as you said save bdty bell we don't have the -- ringing did bell here jackie robinson foundation nice little pop into the close as bob said. thes&p up the best part of the session. the dow pretty much flat and negative for most of the session. that does it for the first hour of "closing bell." sara, back to you. a strong finish to what was a strong month for stocks. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm sara eisen wilfred frost will rejoin me in a moment along with mike santoli. let's take a look at how we finished up the day and month on wall street. the dow climbed all the way back from the decline ending flat s&p 500 going out with a gain of about a full percent nasdaq outperforming all day long up 1.4%.

the russell 2000 index of small caps up .8%. this is the best month for stocks since october 2015. s&p 500 gaining almost 8% in the month of january coming off a rocky final quarter of last year and the worst december since the great depression here's the stories on the radar for investor this is hour. earnings coming your way this hour why millennials could be ill prepared for the stock market this year and could herrmann cane be the next member of the federal reserve? let's start with the markets joining us is stephanie link mike, bring us up to speed on perspective of how strong the january comeback is and what it signals for us here. >> powerful. it was almost straight up. we rest sideways for ten days. however, with as strong of january was, you didn't quite

take back all of december losses and tells you mostly burning off the fear thatbuilt up in december but now obviously we have gotten some good news to -- >> we have more breaking news here president trump meeting with chinese vice premier let's go to eamon for the latest. >> reporter: that's right. liu he in the oval office with the president and reporters filing dispatches and our own kayla taushe the president just said he'll meet with president jinping of china once or twice. so that's an interesting new wrinkle. we had been expecting one meeting of the two leaders and the president saying there may be two and liu he saying he hopes to accelerate the 90-day deadline the president says that lighthizer, the u.s. trade representative, and the u.s.

delegation will be going to china shortly to continue these negotiations and liu he saying china will buy 5 million tons of soybeans a day. that's a significant purchase commitment here from the chinese side the u.s. side suggested that just chinese purchases of agricultural products from the united states won't be enough to get the deal over the line they're expecting structural reforms in terms of intellectual property theft and others. we'll see how eager the u.s. side is to make a deal, maybe when we get this tape here of the president an the chinese delegation talking in the oval office going on as i say right now. >> we are, of course, about to dive into amazon earnings and important to note we did get a nice pop into the close. it took the dow positive territory almost and an extra leg um p to markets. >> amazon earnings are out looks like a beat. deirdre bosa has the numbers. >> it is indeed a beat on the top and bottom line.

earnings per share at $6.04. revenue a little higher than expected at $72.38 billion $71.87 blg was expected. guidance, however, on the revenue side a little bit light. the company is guiding 56 to $60 billion in q1 revenue. the estimate was a little bit higher i want to bring you q1 operating profit, 2.3 billion and 3.3 billion. top numbers. we'll continue to go through this and bring you numbers from aws, advertising and other segments. >> deirdre bosa, thank you very much mike, the high expectations with this one. >> there are the stock extending a little bit of recent move i don't think it was too far from consensus does look like a beat and the top line beat not tremendous in the scheme of things and i think it makes sense it's gaining and when's interesting is the stock finished the day, the regular

session, almost halfway between the all-time high and december low and got half back and maybe the guidance will inform where we go from here. >> the long-term theme, as well, stephanie. eps close to 200% up year over year and it's a kind of big tech company moving in the right direction on that to grow into the valuation that for years people questioned. >> the theme is operating leverage and margin expansion and profitability and what you got in the quarter a nice job improving the profitability. that was an income on the company and good to see that the income guidance for the first quarter is right in line, maybe a little bit better than expected and i don't worry so much about the revenue number. probably being a bit on the conservative side. but i'm more -- more looking at the operating income guidance and looks pretty good. >> i'm trying to find the numbers. net sales were about 46% higher

from the year over year so continuing to grow there. >> 46% is what they did in the third quarter but down from the second quarter and coming down law of large numbers and still very good. all you needed to do was in the low to mid-40s to have people be pretty happy the stock up 24% from the lows and risk reward as mike mentioned was not nearly as good as it could have been, right but that said, had a nice recovery and enough to keep the momentum going. >> alexa had a busy quarter herself. >> there's tidbits to distract you from the numbers. >> all a brag sheet. >> north america net sales up 18%. that actually is a marked slowdown of seeing from other quarters and little surprising given a strong holiday quarter. >> they never really do that well, actually, in the fourth quarter. so that's why their margins are

so good. so 18% is fine i don't think you really own it for the retail piece to be quite honest with you and not for the fourth quarter north america retail piece but aws and the operating profit and the profitability and leverage. >> mike, how's this performed relative to the likes of microsoft and then i guess other online rae retailers >> such an outperformer on the upside going into december that it's given much back basically when it got up to, you know, the essentially trillion dollar valuation moment above $2,000 a share early september, down 34% from there into the december low and then you regained half of that back since. >> you know what's interesting here in some of the discussion portion of the tidbits, so they pulled up the minimum wage remember took an effect in november once they decided to increase it to $15 per hour, the company received a record of propertily

850,000 work applications for hourly positions in november 2018, more than double what they saw the previous record for applications in a month. >> already cool to be working for amazon and then more money to work for amazon all the better. >> is it a profit problem? >> a head wind, for sure they're focusing on other ways to improve the operating profit and margin it is nice to do the numbers they're doing. >> different ways of characterizing the month each quarter how much free cash flow for the prior 12 months and almost 20 billion in the most recent quarter on a trailing basis and that to me if there's any way that the valuation has kind of stuck to a certain metric over time it's been a free cash flow yield and around 2% below that that's one thing that kind of also uses a benchmark. >> d. is diving into the numbers

and has another take d. >> that's right, wilf. i want to break down the segments and product lines aws, that actually came in above what the street was expecting. 7.43 billion but product lines, a few misses here physical stores, this includes whole foods, revenue from this product line came in at 4.4 billion. 4.7 billion expected subscription services, this includes prime memberships revenue was $3.96 billion. says a little bit below what expected at 4.32 billion and maybe it's saturated particularly in the u.s. also, the ad business, very strong, $3.4 billion however that is a little bit below what was expected and grew 95% last quarter year over year. that's a big amount and not the triple digit growth we have seen over the previous three quarters guys >> thank you for that.

as you were speaking, we did see the stock price dip a little bit. it was up a percent and now down fractionally mike, people were looking into the advertising growth something they suspected to be high margin. easy ground to grab and still growing fast year over year. >> on a small base almost going to be automatic type growth because of where they are with the platform and one of those things that people reach for as a longer term reason to be comfortable with paying up for the stock. >> 95% growth is 95% growth. come on. let's put it in perspective. it's okay. >> you have to be feeling good about earnings season overall. i know you like ge you put your neck on the line with that one. >> that was a painful one. it fell so dramatically in december but i think earnings overall is pretty good sounds so cliche but it is such a stock picker's market this earnings season because the moves, if you beat and raise or

have low expectations and just come in line your stock is going up big on the flip side they hammered those stocks that aren't delivering so i think overall the 5% s&p 500 earnings growth for the year is pretty much where it's settling out at at this point. >> not to put a bearish tilt on things but the big factor the bulls looking for has happened. >> yes. >> this is really now going to have to be delivered on if it continues by earnings and fundamentals. >> or chinese trade. >> could be that final, you know, that final element of that subtraction of all fears i was talking about yesterday. then you're left with are we going to grow enough to get comfortable with the soft landing scenario and not bring the fed back in the picture? >> china trade let's listen to the president. >> with us and also the vice minister of trade of china we have had long discussions this is going on for quite sometime it will be by far if it happens

the biggest deal ever made, not only the biggest trade deal ever but it will be the biggest trade deal ever and the biggest deal ever made. the two largest countries doing a trade deal there won't be anything that will match that. and we'll see what happens we have done very well we have had a very, very strong relationship as my relationship is with president xi i think we'll start by reading the letter that president xi sent to me and to us it puts us off to a good foot. and then we'll repeat a couple of the remarks that the vice premier stated and then we are going to have mr. lighthizer speak for a couple of seconds and we're then going to get back to business and you can go and have fun and write your stories. so thank you very much for being here we appreciate it and if you could start by reading the letter from president xi, maybe you could speak louder. >> message from president xi to

president trump. mr. president, i send you my best greetings as a new round of -- is being held reaching out to our countries and trade issues, i ask mr. liu he to bring to you sincere greetings and best wishes from me right now china/u.s. relations are at a critically important stage. last month we had a successful meeting in argentina in which we agreed to work together to build a bilateral relationship based on coordination, cooperation and stability. that was followed by the good conversation we had through a phone call and the letters of congratulations we sent each other on the anniversary of our diplomatic relations our economic teams have engaged in intensive -- and made progress

i hope that our two sides will continue to act in the spirit of mutual respect and cooperation and step up by meeting each other halfway in order to reach an early agreement that works for the interest of both sides such an agreement will send a positive signal to our two people and the broader international community. it will serve to ensure happy development of china/u.s. relations and contribute to steady growth of the world economy. mr. president, in our last phone call you said you wanted for china to buy more agricultural products i have made some arrangements about which i believe you might have been briefed. as i often say, i feel we have known each other for a long time, ever since we first met. i cherish the good working relations and personal friendship with you.

i enjoy our meetings and phone calls in which we could talk about anything it falls to us to work together and accomplish things meaningful for the people of our two countries and the world at large. mr. president, if there is anything you could always approach me through various means. i hope we'll keep close contact in various ways. as the chinese lunar new year draws near we send greetings to you and your family. may you enjoy a happy and prosperous new year. >> that's a beautiful letter we appreciate it you may go with the vice premier's statements and then i'm going to ask for you to say a few words, bob please >> the vice premier said that president xi sends tremendous importance to his personal friendship with you and hopes to see your continued success

as over the past two years since you took office. you have made tremendous accomplishment on both the dmix and diplomatic front thanks to your policies of tax reduction and your regulation, u.s. economy as i heard from my american colleagues over dinner last night is now enjoying high growth and low employment with unprecedented prosperity and it is because of your decisive decision that have directly facilitated the major breakthrough and relationship between the u.s. and dprk and under the strategic guidance of you and president xi and you, mr. president, it is hopeful that china and the u.s. will have the possibility of striking a historical deal on trade and to my trip to the u.s. this time is to follow through on the important agreement reached between you and president xi to

accelerate the 90-day -- between china and the united states in the hope of striking a comprehensive deal and we have been working with ambassador lighthizer of the past couple of days and our discussions are going well we have achieved all of the important consensus towards the direction of striking a comprehensive deal which is to be ultimately agreed to between you and president xi >> well, thank you very much bob, maybe if you could say just a few words of where we are, what we're discussing and then maybe i'll ask the vice premier to say a words and we'll get on with our negotiations. >> great, thank you, mr. president. perhaps you want to say that okay he speaks very good english. >> based on many months of negotiations, we had two very

intense and very long days of discussions. your team was -- all of your team was involved. i think we made progress we have much work to do if we're going to have an agreement but we made substantial progress we focused on the most important issues which are the structural issues, protection of u.s. intellectual properties, possession, agriculture and services issues. and enforcement, enforcement, enforcement. both sides agree this agreement is worth nothing without enforcement. that's been your instruction from the beginning and focusing. we have a lot more issues to cover and focused on the structural issues, the ones you have been so focused on and we talked about enforcement, enforcement, enforcement. >> you will be going in early february with your group to china? >> we are more -- mr. president, we have more or less in

continuous negotiations. there will be a brief pause for the chinese new year brief for them the chinese want but our people will be in contact with going back and forth with papers and with discussions. the secretary and i will be going over there shortly and then see where we are. at this point, it's impossible for me to predict success but we are in a place if things work out it could happen. >> okay. thank you very much. i appreciate it and look forward to that and the results of your trip but you're really discussing it anyway, whether you're in china or hire. >> continue woously. >> we have a phone and other ways of talking. so, i jus want do say the vice premier is a friend of mine. he has become -- he's truly one of the most respected men in asia, one of the most respected men in all of china. and frankly, one of the most respected men anywhere in the world and it's a great honor to have you.

>> thank you. >> with us if you would like to say a few words, please do. >> it's a great hohn nnor to me you, mr. president. >> thank you. >> i fully agree with the report satisfied. mr. lighthizer and actually have the -- key things first about treaties and then secondly about structural and then thirdly about enforcement but at the same time also difficult from china we need to do something, essential. like u.s. customs. risk by us so by focusing so much on -- and then -- in beijing i hope here. >> we'll be going.

and we look forward to that and then a little back and forth and ultimately i know i'll be meeting with president xi. maybe once and maybe twice and it will all seem to come together i do appreciate the fact that you said so much about our farmers. and that you'll be doing purchases quickly about the farmers. that's really wonderful. >>. [ inaudible >> speak up. 5 million. >> 5 million tons of soybeans. >> 5 million tons of soybeans. wow. >> per day per day. >> per day that's going to make our farmers very happy that's a lot of soybeans well, that's really nice i know they said some other things and we'll put out a release for the press. but the relationship is very, very good between china and the united states. and the personal relationships are very good with the vice premier, with myself and president xi

and with our representatives it's been very, very good. you know, you read a lot of things sometimes you hear good. sometimes you don't hear good. but i will say that i think the relationship that we have right now with china has never been so advanced i don't think it's ever been better but i can tell you for a fact it's never been so advanced and certainly a deal has never been so advanced because essentially we don't have a deal we never had a trade deal. we will have a great trade deal. >> thank you. >> we never really had a trade deal with china and now we will have a great trade deal with china if it all works out and we look forward to it it's going to be great for both countries. not just us. not just them. this is going to be great for both countries and i know you've already done a lot of opening up china to the financial services industry it's been happening very much, very rapidly and hopefully we can get that done for our farmers, manufacturers. likewise the united states so, it's just an honor to be

with you and i will see you today but i'll see you a lot over the next month. that i can tell you. okay thank you very much. it's great honor thank you. >> mr. president, where do you want to meet with president xi >> we haven't set up a meeting yet. i think we are working on seeing where everybody is and then we'll meet to discuss some final issues may be a lot might be a small amount. i have a feeling there will be agreed to pretty quickly by both countries. both countries would like to see a positive result. >> thank you. >> did you talk to - >> have you seen enough progress based on what you have heard from your team on either - >> yeah, yeah. very much. technology transfer. i.t. i think that we have made tremendous progress. that dunts mean you will have a deal but i can say there's a tremendous relationship and warm feeling and we have made tremendous progress. >> mr. president, did you talk to your intelligence chiefs today about the displeasure you had with - >> i did and they said that they were totally misquoted and it was taken out of context and what i

do is suggest you call them. they said it was fake news so which - >> we ran what they said to congress. >> didn't surprise me at all but we are hire to talk about china. >> did the fact they didn't bring up the border as the world threat assessment, did that undermine -- >> we didn't undermine anything. we need a wall we won't have security for our country. >> they didn't bring it up - >> next. >> is that undercut -- >> please? >> detail of the soybean deal offer? >> i think it is so nice you said soybeans? >> yes. >> tremendous purchase taking place now on the farmers will be very happy. >> when is the soybean taking place? >> we have already put - >> they've already started >> and today we'll start -- >> so they started on a smaller scale and today they're starting very big an i very much appreciate that.

please tell president xi and on behalf of the agricultural industry and on behalf of our farmers, frankly, we appreciate it very much that's a very big order. [ inaudible >> u.s. farmers very much. >> they like the u.s. farmers. we have good product and you can use it and it's -- >> more. >> i really appreciate it. that was really fantastic to say. that's before we make a deal it's a fantastic sign of faitd. >> mr. president, was the wall -- >> no. we haven't discussed that yet. we will be. >> how >> it will be discussed. i'm sure some point -- that actually as big as it might seem is very small compared to the whoev overall deal and will be discussed. >> anything else >> -- and to a - >> excuse me >> did you have combined trips -- >> it is possible. we haven't discussed it yet.

when president xi and i meet we want it down so there's certain points to discuss. and i would say agree to but we are not at that stage yet and these representatives are coming to a conclusion except for certain very important points and we want to make it comp hen hencive. we want a deal to look at and be proud of for years and not renoerkt or left things out. whether it's intellectual property or whether it's any of the other things we discuss all the time, we want to try, what you say, have everything included we want to have it very comprehensive. >> what are the points you feel like you need to negotiate one on one with the -- >> well, we really -- we really have discussed many of the points today but i would say probably more than anything else, everything you discuss in the newspapers and on television. those are the points we are discussing i don't think i've ahead of any point that was discussed by the

folks that really represent you and represent you well, it's every single one of the points discussed in the transactions and trade deal in this trade deal. >> mr. president, you said earlier you wanted to postpone this what did you mean? >> we haven't talked about extending the deadline the deadline is march 1st. that deadline has stayed and we haven't talked about it. i don't think we have to extend. now, at a certain point you're going to have -- this is a complex and very large -- it is the largest transaction ever made to be perfectly straight we have to get this put on paper at some point if we agree. there are some points we don't agree to yet but i think we will agree. i think when president xi and myself meet every point will be agreed to. one of the things that we discussed in argentina was fentanyl this is not a tradedeal. this is a fact that president xi was extremely good when he said

that they would criminalize fentanyl because fentanyl is killing a lot of our great american people. and if they did what they're going to do it would very much halt or at least -- i think it would stop fentanyl from coming into this country which would be a tremendous thing so that's a separate than the trade deal. >> mr. lighthizer mentioned enforcement. how do you envision enforcement? >> i think strong language both ways they want enforcement, too this is a serious deal that we are doing. this could be done very quickly, very easily and not comprehensive, it could be small and i want to end by saying really as a sign of good faith for china to buy that much of our soybeans and other product that they have just committed to us prior to the signing of the deal is something that makes us

very proud to be dealing with them i think that the farmers who have already been notified of this by me and my representatives and by sonny, sonny purdue is here, secretary of agriculture i think that was music to your ears, right? >> absolutely. >> that's a big number even to you to hear? >> good news. >> will you let the farmers know right away >> before i know. >> and that was more than even soybeans that was the other things that we discussed before the press came in. they discussed other things that they're buying, as well. if you would let everybody know. were you surprised to hear that? >> pleased to hear this. >> keeping the farmers busy. that's going to keep them busy that's a big order so, let's keep going let's start our discussions and we'll ask the media to leave thank you all very much. we appreciate it thank you very much, everybody thank you. i think so

steve, you're going? >> ambassador lighthizer. >> are you going are you going to that? ask -- ask mnuchin she wanted to know about mnuchin. >> come on, guys. >> we need to confirm it in the next couple of days. >> will you -- >> say hello to your parents. >> i will. >> what about the summit >> it's moving along well. the end of the month the end of february. >> any other details to provide? >> thanks, pam. >> early next week the state of the union. >> come on, guys keep moving. come on. keep going >> could be. one way or the other. >> president trump speaking in the oval office alongside china's vice premier in town for a visit over trade talks sounds like progress and a lot of goodwill both from the chinese side where a letter was read by president xi of how good the relationship was and from president trump saying the relationship with china has never been so advanced and they are building to a trade deal

not much in the way of specifics. did get that 5 million tons of soybean number thrown out in terms of what china would buy from the u.s waiting for a little more clarification and president trump seemed excited about that and took it as a sign of more goodwill. >> yeah. it was also similar tone struck by the vice premier of china hard to hear what he had to say and said that the top i fully agree with the president about progress i think he said something about also agreeing for the need for enforcement. but wasn't exactly clear i'm sure one person who will know clearly what was said by the vice premier and everyone else is kayla taushe in the oval office. >> reporter: china came to the u.s. to deliver on at least one of the president's specific requests to president xi in

bains and said i've made some arrangements and the 5 million ton deal for soybeans, a deliverable to come out of the negotiations despite the fact that ambassador lighthizer said that intellectual property issues and the thornier enforcement issues discussed today and nothing announced on those and raises question of how much work still needs to be done they will be going to china in early february after the chinese new year and then president trump said he'll meet president xi once or maybe twice i asked him whether it would be at mar-a-lago. he said could be one way or the other, pointing to the u.s. or china, sort of on an invisible map saying the case of huawei will be discussed, criminal charges unveiled a couple of days ago overshadowing the u.s. and china relationship at this point and as for the difficulty level of the things that remain to be worked out in the deal, the president doesn't seem fazed by them he said he thinks once they sit

down it will be agreed to pretty quickly. and that is good news for the market because the expectation is that some sort of deal and the resolution of these issues would lift the stock market and it is not necessarily a good thing for companies who really have -- who want this pandora's box to be opened to really hold china to account, the potentially have the enforcement mechanism here be criminal against china stealing u.s. technology so we'll see how these little bits and pieces end up moving along over the next month and a positive for the market he said he doesn't think that march 1st deadline needs to be extended and will resolve the issues before then. >> yeah. there was a lot of upbeat comments i would agree from the president. they, kayla. on one hand, mike, it is good to hear the president talk about the resolve he has in trying to solve this on the other, it is a pretty modest concession from the chinese. the u.s. demanded all sorts of

things including changing the protectionist policies no word yet on that. >> which is why i think it's almost impossible to handicap how much progress is made to whatever the likely outcome will be and seems like it's about what the u.s. would accept and we don't know that you hear from both sides. >> it's almost impossible to handy cap with a full-scale deal dealing with the issues and the tone suggests that the president really wants to avoid the worst-case scenario to continue to play hardball stephanie, this tone not definitive of the deal we end up with and suggest to the market not getting something cataclysmic. >> we are slowly checking off the boxes of the uncertainty we don't know what the fed will do the trade, fed and government shutdown the trifecta that brought us down. >> and the earnings slowdown. >> we are slowly checking off the boxes and the market really

i think we want to get more detail for sure and want a good deal, for sure but the uncertainty is what was really plaguing the markets and really was responsible for the multiple contraction that we have seen over the last -- >> i want to know which companies you buy with a confident feeling of which way the trade talks go. >> about trade >> yeah. >> i would buy cyclicals, industrial, technology. >> all of those valuations are held back by the uncertainty of this trade >> adding technology and why the semiconductor stocks are acting better yeah i think they're starting to price it in and, again, getting rid of the uncertainty is a really big deal. >> mike, if we end up getting a deal that's essentially back to how it was before maybe with a little bit of finessing around the edges and not the full-scale, long-term u.s. wins type deal, how much more upside is there in the market >> i think that's what investors wished for which is why did we start this fight

once the fight started, if we do this, get something more structural let's have some pay back on what american businesses can do there. we have been living with this for a year we are up 15% in the s&p in 5 weeks. i'm not clear of whether that would be kind of a new propel lant higher if we just got the as expected deal and an agreement. >> you have to add in the china stimulus and we are starting to see stable lags even without a trade deal and we have 61 different kinds of stimulus programs in china going on since july. >> and the currency rebounded. >> that's exactly right. >> trade's not a swing factor. right? always about china hard landing. >> yes, you think -- >> making it more likely is a problem. >> it's icing on the cake. right? you have the stimulus and oh by the way you have an easier fed, an easier ecb and boj and good

for risk aset and ask wealth how much higher to go and i think international markets will outperform u.s. and they can go a lot higher. >> interesting stephanie, great stuff thank you very much for joining us. up next here on the "closing az's," diving deeper into amon results we'll be back in a couple minutes. i think there are some ways to help keep you on track. and closer to home. edward jones grew to a trillion dollars in assets under care, by thinking about your goals as much as you do.

welcome back yum china and cypress semi are

out with earnings. >> yum china earnings 12 cents adjusted versus estimate of 8 cents. revenue basically in line at 1.91 billion same store sales growing 2% in the fourth quarter that was driven by growth at kfc though it did see weakness in pizza hut. looking to 2019, the company says we're well positioned to face lax and the stock up 6% let's pivot to cypress semiconductor. driven by a one-time tax benefit and shares are higher here by 4% in extended trade. wilf >> seema, thank you very much for that tomorrow, as well, on the show, the ceo of cypress semi here to weigh in on the earnings the stock trading higher mike, in particular on yum, as seema said, it was the comps up 2%, expected to be fractionally

down. >> i think that's the whole thing right there and the stock is -- you know, a little bit off the highs and anything to confirm that, you know, the every day consumer in china is okay going to help. >> we are showing shares of amazon trading lower right now down about 1.5% after hours. for more reaction, let's bring in pria, michael, tripp. tripp, i mean, they continue the growth 20% revenue growth beating on the top and bottom line. outlook worse than expected and some below the line items to quibble with how do you see the quarter >> well, we're not surprised by the top line revenue number as the number one line item on my family's credit card this season, we did our part. i understand aws light on margins but we are not going to complain about growing 45% year over year. the advertising business we think is very similar to aws as far as the long-term opportunity there and the margins to produce. i heard complaints earlier they

grew only 95%. we'll take that every day. so we see a lot of opportunity here in the pipeline that's on top of their e-commerce business becomes diversified because of third marts and that's higher margin business and we think they have a tremendous opportunity and artificial intelligence that's not talked about enough and we think that that parallels with the aws business and can be a very significant profit driver for many, many years to come. >> and we should note 12% of the portfolio is amazon. >> yes we are glad to have it at that level. >> pria, was 95% growth in advertising enough >> it's a lot. it's a little bit slower than the triple digit growth we have been seeing in the last couple of quarters but like tripp sard, 95% growth is nothing to scoff at clearly amazon takes the large base of third party merchants and offer different ad products and say you want more sales than

amazon, more visibility for your products, go with this option and advertise more with amazon and in my reporting people are glad to have that option to be able to pay to get the products serviced higher and the marketplace is feeding upon that essentially. >> mike, when we consider the guidance, it's a fear that this strong holiday quarter we saw won't be repeated not least in q1 with the government shutdown. >> you know, i think the quarter ticked a lot of boxes and especially for growth i thought the guidance was fine. both on the top line and specifically for margins i think amazon is really delivering on north american e-commerce business. very consistently for one of the first times in the last decade or so. you know, i think the key thing that investors look for at amazon stock is stead zi, consistent growth that's highly predictable and amazon's very

much delivering on that. you look at the kind of major big picture items which is that, you know, e-commerce is still a small portion of retail and amazon is a small portion of e-commerce and that gives investors a lot of confidence that the growth here, you know, sort of settling in at 20% or so that the growth here can stay in this range for quite sometime. >> tripp, little bit light relative to expectations on this subscriber revenue is there something that you should be concerned about in terms of maturity of prime or anything like that >> well, i think they have obviously said over 100 million subscribers in the u.s. quhchlt you look at growing in that area, they've got to expand internationally. that's been the challenge. there's obviously a lot of opportunity and current challenges in india. we've seen a lot of focus on the middle east, as well i think to get that number and line item number is international growth for them. >> priya, what are you listening for on the call? >> well, it is important to hear

what brian says about amazon's growth in end why and how new e-commerce regulations might affect that. they have committed the investing billions of dollars in india and it's arguably their most international market to be watching because of the competition they have there with flip card owned by walmart, as well so hearing what brian says about the recent regulations that have become clearer and much more challenging business environment for u.s.-based companies operating there it will be important to hear how amazon's planning to address that and what they can do going forward to make sure they can, you know, the money that they're investing there is not just translating to losses. >> michael, sum it up for us when's your price recommendation and are you altering that at all today? >> well, our last published price target is $22.50 we'll have to dive into the numbers and see how we feel about that going forward you know, i definitely think after the -- you know, the

reason why the stock was down after q3 earn sgs revenue guidance at that time was a little bit weaker than people were looking for the stock's recovered now quite a bit since that time. i think this quarter is a very good sort of confidence building quarter that should help investors look to the future forget about that q3 print and i think it's setting amazon up for a pretty good year in 2019. >> we'll leave it there, guys. thank you. still ahead, it is a strong month for the market but will momentum continue? we'll break down what january's returns mean for the rest of the year ♪ (vo) here's a question. was it necessary to create a luxury car more teched out than silicon valley? with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted.

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more earnings rolling in deckers and -- >> draw your attention to deckers, wilf. sharply higher after hours better than expected earnings and revenue lifting the guidance, upping the buy back and up nearly 8% and keep in mind the stock is up now 50% in the last one year and a bright spot in retail. take a look at symantec beating estimates on the top and bottom line driven by growth in the consumer business. did it announce that the ceo is stepping down. a successor is yet to be named wilfred, back to you. >> seema, thank you very much if that. markets closed out january at regular levels. the dow and s&p saw the best months since october 2015 and the nasdaq saw the best month since october 2011

will this momentum continue going into 2019? joining us now david zefras, scott rand david, do you think that given your position on outlook for the u.s. economy that this sort sor bounceback was expected to this scale as well? >> i mean it's a very aggressive bounceback but we had an aggressive q4 in the other direction, particularly in december you were talking about it earlier on the show. a lot of this has been the fed jay powell had a lot of miscommunications that started back in october. i think he flipped and he flopped three or four times. the big flop being in december january 4th he really set up the stage for this statement to be much, much different than the last statement it's just -- i guess it's surprising how much difference we've seen in six weeks, but it's good to see that they have corrected some of these miscommunications. i think we can get back to talking about other things besides the fed, whether it's trade, whether it's the global economy, whether it's what's going on in europe and european

elections, but things that are probably less suited to the market getting itself into a pickle like it got itself into in q4. >> scott, where does that leave the fundamentals we're trying to dig out of the government shutdown as well and figure out how much can be reversed and what the actual economy and what companies are telling us about where we are right now. we're coming off of the best month for the nasdaq since october 2011 are we going to continue to see gains? >> it's been a pretty wild two months, sara, that's for sure. as far as guidance goes, the absolute results in the fourth quarter, they don't mean near low as much as the outlook here. and our outlook is for some modest growth, 2.5% gdp, modest inflation. valuations are at pretty decent levels we've had -- david mentioned this huge bounce here. and the trader in me says that we're very likely, i think we're going to touch that 200-day

moving average somewhere up around 2740. then it wouldn't surprise us if we gave back a little bit of ground here. so the s&p, all these indices have jumped 15%, 17% in small caps, things like that the fundamentals, at least in our opinion, or in good shape. this bounceback has been very quick. we decided to take a little bit of risk out of our portfolios by going a little underweight in terms of small cap but overall we're still leaning towards a continuation of this expansion. and really we've talked about this quite a bit over the last couple of months the sectors that we have liked that do well in an advancing economy, industrials, financials, consumer discretionary, they got clobbered at the end of last year and they're among the best performers this year so i don't think that should be a surprise, but we're reaching some levels where you would expect the market to cough up a little bit of these gains.

>> david, if this reversal in the market makes a lot of sense taking back most of december's losses after the fed did obviously change its message a fair bit, how much more can we expect i guess what i'm saying is if the u.s. economy is actually in good shape, everyone is going to gain assurance we're still growing at a decent clip, does that not mean that we were just one 25 basis point move away from disaster as the market seems to suggest from december i'm trying to get to the fragility of the markets with regard to the fed and the resiliency of the overall economy. >> that's a great question i think the interest rate structure we were talking about last year had a lot of people yapping on about 3.5%, 4%. that really got under the equity market's skin. it happened in february, it happened again in q4 and now we're at 2.60 on the 10-year we're talking about a fed that's probably likely to pause for an

extended period of time and introduced the time that we're much more symmetric in rate hikes and rate cuts and the bias to the statement looked like more risks to the downside than the upside so the rate structure should be much more supportive for the equity market. if you look back at our two bear market swoons last year, they were interest rate driven. so this 260 tenure, if we go down and play around the 2.25 to 2.50 area, i think you'll see multiples start to expand. that was the story that was under the equity market's dozen all last year and we're getting rid of that now. the fed is sort of off the table and playing this backstop card which should make people feel pretty good. it's less about earnings and less about the economic data it could be a little softer for a variety of reasons but i think it's more about multiples than rates s rates. >> so not cutting your hair

until the fed cuts >> we're in a lot better position for me to get a haircut after this last fed meeting than the one in december. so it's looking like it's coming my way a little way. >> a more dovish tone than expected surely accounts for a cut. >> apparently not. >> maybe i'll do a little trim for the next show, we'll see. >> david and scott, thank you both very much >> thanks, guys. >> great discussion, as always. up next, new comments from amazon's c ofon earnings we'll bring you the latest after the break.

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we've got some news on a new drug pricing proposal from the trump administration moving some stocks here. bertha coombs with the details. >> the trump administration really wants to shake up the way the whole controversial rebate system works the way it works now, drug makers say they list very high list prices because they know they'll have to knock it down with these secret contracts that they contract with pharmacy benefit managers the administration wants to get rid of those they want the discounts to go directly to customers and patients at the drugstore when they buy the drugs and for the new system to involve fees that the manufacturers would pay to the

pbms for getting those drugs to patients in their contracts. but no longer having these back channel, they call them, contracts that are anonymous and secret this is something that would be a big change one thing that's already a big change, all of the big pbms are part of big insurers that are all joined so it's something that a lot of these companies have maybe been preparing for. back over to you >> yeah, but a negative share price reaction we'll unpack that tomorrow and see how the stocks do. >> okay, bertha, thank you very much now amazon's cfo made comments on the earnings call. dee bosa has the call for us. >> on that revenue guidance, he says it incorporates new regulations in india that would affect e-commerce sales. steep discounts have helped amazon dominate the u.s. market.

he said amazon remains committed to complying with all laws an regulations. he was also asked whether jeff bezos plans to sell any shares he said he didn't have anything to say back to you. >> that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee tonight on "fast," as you just heard, amazon volatile after hours despite an earnings beat moments ago. the tech giant's guidance coming in light which is putting some pressure on the stock. we're awaiting the conference call kicking off in 30 minutes' time our earnings team will get you all the headlines. gene munster is in minneapolis, deidre bosa is in san francisco. we'll check in with them later but we start with the markets. the s&p 500 having its best january sinc