it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here's your five at 5:00 wall street kicking off a new month after the s&p 500 handed in its best january, get this, since 1987 amazon raising the red flag. what the company said about the future that's putting pressure on the stock deal or no deal? president trump expected to meet with chooeina's president. crude oil did something it's never done before. we'll tellyou what that is we are just a few hours away from today's big jobs report we'll break down the key number to watch it's friday, february 1st, and

worldwide exchange begins right now. ♪ walk like an egyptian ♪ >> good morning. welcome to worldwide exchange. i'm courtney reagan. brian sullivan is off today. the s&p 500 handing in its best january since 1987 we're throwing it back with some of the top hits from that year i love that song i did that for a dance recital, actually the markets were red hot last month. just quick e check out some of the stats. the dow gaining 7.7% for its best month in more than three years. the nasdaq, though, did even better jumping 9.7% as we mentioned, the big prize goes to the s&p 500 posting its best january in 32 years other notable movers oil gaining 18%. that's its best start to a new year ever. gold jumping 3%, and the dollar posting its first two-month losing streak in a year.

now, there's an old saying on wall street. you probably know it we're going to remind you. so goes january, so goes the year will that be the case in 2019? the bulls are certainly hoping so here's a check on how things are shaping up for the first trading day of february, however after we had closed mixed on the session at the end of yesterday after that very strong month, you can see here, we are poised to open mixed if the markets were to open at this point the dow jones industrial average is poised to open higher by 43 points s&p 50000 marginally, and the nasdaq would close -- or open lower, i should say, after closing lower yesterday by about 100 points we'll have more on the markets coming up. first, to your top stock story of the day amazon shares of the retail giant slumping after topping results and issuing a soft first quarter guidance can you see shares under pressure this morning in early trade. down more than 4.5%. let's bring in tim liscoe, granite investment advisors.

it was a pretty good quarter when you look at the top and the bottom line for amazon they also put up some record profit, but i think some of the worry is that maybe that record profit could be ending because of the investments that amazon says they're going to reramp up here what do you make of both the quarter and in the forward-looking guidance >> well, certainly the quarter was good they beat on earnings. they, you know, did well on revenue. i think maybe we're starting to see a sent meant change with amazon investors have waited for amazon to show the profitability that they want. when they maybe, you know, tell the street that they're going to make less money next year and begin that pathway, again, towards bigger investments and slower earnings, it's going to spook the street three, four years ago, nobody cared about the erkz they only cared about revenue growth now it's starting to turn into an earnings story with a pretty high multiple. >> what about your expectations for aws? that is the big profit stra, right? we still saw growth of 45%, which was on par with what we

saw previously >> amazon has all these other business that is seem to eat away at their profitability while aws does so well a lot of investors have called for them to maybe spin off aws because it really doesn't matter maybe the businesses aren't congruco congruent. i think investors would like a little bit more clarity where they're going to invest that money. >> and speaking of some of the other businesses, look at the physical stores. i think maybe that was surprising to some maybe not surprising to others we know whole foods is a big piece of that physical store, but trr also amazon bookstore, amazon four star, amazon go, and that fell 3% year-over-year. does that bother you at all? i know it's a small business relatively, but, gosh, think about all the pressure that that put on so many different sectors

when we found out that am zwlon was buying whole foods >> right and i think if you look at coverage of retail industries, here you have amazon who theoretically was going to have better margins because they didn't have a physical presence, and they're moving more towards a traditional brick and mortar and that's a more challenging business and it's more challenging to generate the kind of margins that people want. groceries are tiplically a 2% plarjin kind of business put that against amazon web he services, and it becomes more of a drag than an asset, and i think people were hoping that whole foods radio would drive revenue to the rest of the businesses so the street is disaincident positived that it did not do that. >> tim, if we can just finalize things here really quickly i know we can talk about amazon for an entire hour, but getting to india it got some attention because of the changes that are going on with some of the e-commerce rules and regulations. it's already at a pretty difficult market, to be fair, for foreign companies to work through. the cfo sort of said, look, we're uncertain, but we're

looking towards it as a growth opportunity in the future. what do you make of what amazon is doing in india and the challenges they're in? >> i think if you look across the landscape, you have both amazon and wal-mart making heavy investments in the future of e-commerce in india because india is such an important market whether india is an important market this quarter or next quarter, pailz in the comparison to the power of a long-term class. we want to see other companies make investments in india. it is one of those countries that every once in a while the government slows you a curve ball, and you have to be pretty flexible to be able to handle that curve ball. >> got it. thank you so much. tim, appreciate you joining us here on worldwide exchange >> thanks for having me. >> we're getting fresh reaction from china to the latest round of trade talks with the u.s. einice is life in beijing with more hi, eunice where. >> the chinese delegation issued a statement through the official

state media saying that the talks were candid, specific, and fruitful, and also adding that the two sides made important progress the chinese side was led by vice premier who met with president trump at the oval office, and earlier in the day in a tweet president trump had said that no final deal would be made until president trump xi and he met in the near future. well, yu delivered a message from president xi saying he was willing to stay in close touch with president trump and hoped that the two sides would meet halfway. today the foreign ministry added on president trump meeting with president xi we noticed that president trump looks forward to meeting with president xi. meaning that the americans are the ones who want the meeting, not the chinese. the chinese side pledged buy five million tons of u.s. soybea soybeans, and that should address one of president trump's big concerns, the trade deficit. that surprised the trade

representative who also said that a lot more work needs to be done representative bob itheizer and steven mnuchin are expected to come out here in beijing after the lunar new year holiday which happens next kwooek week they are going to come for a second -- or another round of talks, and some sources that identify been talking to have said that the discussions that have been going on this time around indicated to them that the two sides were still very much far part. eu had said that he was hoping that the two sides will be able to mac a deal the next time they meet here in beijing >> a lot of hope, but still far apart. uenice, i understand we have new manufacturing data out of china overnight. what's the story there >> well, the story is that the manufacturing sector here is struggling because this is a private survey it comes after

the official pmi that was released yesterday both surveys are showing the same trend, and that is that the manufacturing sector here is shrinking. the pmi came in at 48.3 for january, and this is much lower than the 49.5 that analysts were expecting, and any number below 350 indicates a contraction. they were indicating a similar story, which is demand is slowing. what was also interesting about this survey is that it pulls a smaller medium size company, a lot of them private, as opposed to the official pmi, which looks at some of the larger businesses we're seeing another trend that all of the smaller companies are struggling even more than the larger ones here >> a good read on what's going on the ground. thank you, euni kre, for joining us this morning. let's talk about global

trade. >> we just got that data rundown. waerk factory data continues it doesn't seem to be changing your thesis for china. explain what you are seeing there. the rest of us might be missing it >> i think it's career that the economy is slowing there's no disagreement about that i think across the board what we are expecting to see, though, is there's been a number of different stimulus measures it's something almost 60 different stimulus measures since june they are yet to take effect brsh every. there's a couple of reasons for that we've had a lot of the corporates and households, their willingness to spend to deteriorate. they're more likely to save any extra disposable income that they get from some of the fiscal stimulus and tax cuts we saw last yoer.

one of the issues is whereas the monetary policy will be more effective usually, that transmission mechanism where you actually move from the central bank government policy and actually hits households isn't working that well. you know, usually the remedy is you do more easy measures, and we have had very encouraging signals from the government in that respect that they have ramped up the measures and they expect more to come through. i think that we can expect another maybe a quarter or two before we see stabilization. >> does that make it a good entry point if you are looking at some kind of chinese equity stake to get it now by low, of course, moepg to see some stabilization and then eventually growth further down the line >> yes absolutely the valuations and chinese

equities are very attractive those signals are flashing green at this stage, and now that we feel that there's a stabilization in the chinese economy coming later this year, this is for us a great entry point to build up a strategic long-term position in choin and of course the rest of emerging asia because they will benefit from any stabilization in china. >> i would be remiss if we didn't talk about what's going on with the trade war right now. it does still seem to be a lot of talk, a lot of rhetoric no real deal on the table. what are your expectations for what's going to happen between the u.s. and china with these trade talks, and then ultimately, based on those expectations, what does it mean for both countries economically? >> i think that's probably the most pertinent factor right now. really with the trade talks, i think there's going to be increasingly two sides to it there's a tariff side, which we feel like there is likely to be some kind of improvement in those discussions as weeks, months go on what we are seeing, though, is

it's very difficult for china to meet some of the expectations from the u.s. when it comes to the knowledge, technology transfer that they've been complaining about. you know, this is really china's intentions over the next couple of years, if not decades i feel like it's going to be difficult for china to meet the u.s. on those demands, and what we'll increasingly see is there may not be a third run of tariffs perhaps, but the u.s. is likely to up its battle against china via expert controls on some of the u.s. firms exporting to chinese technology companies and some of the chinese investment into u.s. technology companies. what that means is that's obviously damaging for for the chinese economy in terms of the tech side, but it's also slightly damaging to the u.s. technology sector. we could see economies starting to improve it's actually one of the reasons why i don't expect the chinese economy to boom after the stimulus measures. this trade war is something which keeps it down, and we're just looking at stabilization. it's a concern for the u.s. sec nolg sector most pertinently, though >> still a lot of reconciliation

to be found on areas like forced technology transfer and knowledge theft, and, of course, everything that's going on with tariffs. seema, thank you for joining us on worldwide exchange. >> thank you we're just getting started here on the show coming up next, tackling sky-high drug prices president trump is taking new aim at the pharma industry full details ahead the countdown is on for just a few hours away from today's big jobs report. we'll break down the key numbers to watch when worldwide exchange returns. ♪

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>> it just report its first annual profit in four years. the company, though, still posted a loss in the fourth quarter as revenue from bond and currency trading slumped shares are down more than 1.5% at this point. the company is raising its profit outlook for the current year, but it's cutting its sales forecast and weakness in its chip business. sony shares are higher by 2% in extended trading, and young china is higher today. better than expected fourth quarter results. same store sales rising 2% powered by its kfc brand the trump administration is proposing big changes to how prescription drugs were priced frank holland joins us now with

more >> hey, good morning this plan would essentially pass with a trump administration calling back door rebates on prescription drugs on to consumers. right now drug makers, insurance, and milgz men called pharmacy benefit managers, they negotiate those rebates among themselves it's allowed because there's an exemption in federal kickback laws those rebates give them a perverse incentive the regulation would apply to medicare plans, creating a new exemption allowing discounsel to be given directly to consumers this new proposal is open to awe public comment period before it can be finalized health insurance lobbyists, they've already opposed the plan, but the trade group representing drugmakers has voiced supports. shares of pharma benefit managers, they're already sliding on the news. back over to you >> frank holland coming up next, the bull case for your money famed investor bill miller says

the decade long rally has more room to run. we'll bring you his exclusive comments straight ahead. later, we're heading to atlanta where the countdown is on to the super bowl cnbc cameras camping up with the athletes to talk everything from business to the economy to that one stock that everyone, everyone, seems to think is a total touchdown. we'll bring you that name and more great tunes when worldwide exchange returns junior achievement reaches young people all over the world to prepare them for the future of work. we go into classrooms and we teach entrepreneurial skills and leadership skills. when you actually create a business when you're in your teens, it raises your self-confidence. junior achievement is really unique because they inspire young people to think creatively. the citi foundation's pathways to progress initiative helped us reach kids in over 50 countries.

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how much of that do you think has been just dominated by machines and not actually human beings making rationale decisions? >> i would say most of it. those kinds of swings that we've seen that have gotten, i would say, steadily more prevalent since the financial crisis are due to a combination, i think, of etf's, of trend following quant funds, risk parodies those things taken together tend to move as a pack, and that's what i think we're seeing. the market structure has changed, i think, significantly since the prior to the financial crisis we're going to live with it. >> somebody told me once you're supposed to buy low and sell high i guess in that pain there's opportunity. were you a buyer in december >> your. we've actually -- it's really funny because we tend to be contrarian anyway.

>> what was interesting in december what got beat snup. >> unfair. >> everything. >> you can't buy everything. >> well, no, but we just basically added to the names that we already had that went down the most. a name like adt, the alarm company, got down to $6. names like that. >> the home security company, what makes that interesting to you? >> free cash flow. it's a highly fragmented market. the private equity firm owes 85% of the stock they tried to bring the deal to 16 to 18 a year ago. it finally came at 14 and promptly went to 7 and then six during december. this year, they'll do about 750 million of froo he cash flow, and the market cap of the company is around 5 billion. 15% free cash flow yield it will be higher in 2020. >> you and i have interviewed off and on for maybe ten or 15 years. i have never heard you mention avon

big international play why avon why now? >> i like things in the 52-week low list nobody made any money in five years, and so they all hate it avon hit a low price since it came public in 1946 at $1.37 in the summer we started buying it then. then $1.30 in december it's about $2 right now. it's basically an emerging markets play i don't like to use the word play the emerging markets opportunity, and i think the strategy for the first time in many years is correct. they announced yesterday 5% inventory reduction. another cut in people. it will generate a couple hundred million of free cash flow people got spooked in december you know, they got spooked, and maybe they got out give us -- leave us with some words of advice for the year and for the next couple of years for equities

>> i would say this. you know, people talk about corrects being normal. corrections are normal, but they always go to a level that causes people to freak out. we've had 23 corrections in the la ten years in greater than 5%. two a year every time they happen, whether they're 5% or 20%, we were lucky as one of the active funds to get new inflows last year because most are going to passive. we had outflows right at the bottom in december, and those people then came back after the market rebounded in january. you really want to do the opposite you want to basically buy when the things are collapsing and take some money off the table when they're doing well. i think, you know, it's a long-term bull market. it's been a ten-year bull market we have a couple of more years to run, i think. >> you can see brooirn's full interview with bill miller on our website. worldwide exchange.cnbc.com. coming up next, navigating the noise. dc drama, the fed, trade, and earnings they're all top of mind for

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>> it's friday, february 1st, and you are watching worldwide exchange on cnbc good morning welcome to worldwide exchange. brian sullivan is off today. it's flashback friday in honor of the s&p 500 closing at its best january since 1987. we're going old school playing the top hits from that year. we'll have more on the markets coming up and some more great tunes, but, first, let's get over to frank holland with the morning's top headlines. good morning again, frank. >> good morning again, courtney. here's what's leading cnbc.com right now. u.s. trade talks with china are wrapping up in d.c the two nations are reportedly close e closer, moving closer to a deal president trump says he expects to meet again with china's

president later on this month. the exact details are still not known. meantime, we got a fresh sign of the slowdown in china. new data shows the manufacturing sector in china contracted even more than expected last month. what massachusetts senator elizabeth warren is calling outs billionaires for not paying their fair share here's what she told jim cramer last night on "mad money." >> what i want is i want these billionaires to stop being free loaders. i want them to pick up their fair share that's how we make a system is that works not just for the rich and the powerful, but works for all of us. >> and you can see more of jim's interview with elizabeth warren on cnbc.com. and elf beauty agreeing to pay $ 1 million for violating north korean sanctions elf reportedly shipped 156 kits of false eye lash kits from two chinese suppliers that sourced materials from north korea those kits were valued at nearly $4.5 million >> thanks, frank

it's not every day you get elf beauty, false eye lashes and north korea all together in one headline that was a fun story to write for the web. let's get a check on the morning's other top headlines. >> we start this morning with new signs of a stalemate in the battle over the border wall. with government set to dry up in two weeks and another shutdown on the line. president trump is doubling down on his demands for wall funding. in an interview with the "new york times", the president predicted negotiations with congress would fall through pitting the blame on speaker nancy pelosi the president says if she doesn't approve the wall, the rest of it is just a waste of money. as for whether he will go around the impasse by declaring a national emergency to build a wall, he told "the times," "you'll have to see. underscoring the importance of the border security debate federal agents made the largest seizure of fentanyl in the nation's history at the u.s.-mexico point of entry border protection officials discovered 100 packages of the

synthetic substance weighing nearly 254 pounds. it's worth an estimated $3.5 million. officials found the drugs in a truck trying to come through through a border checkpoint in arizona. in the midwest millions were gripped by yet another day of subzero temperatures conditions now blamed for at least 12 deaths. in rochester, minnesota, where wind chills dropped negative 54 degrees, it was too cold for city buses to run. firefighters across the midwest have been responding to house fires and becoming encased in ice as they work in the brutal cold, but a big warm-up around the nation is on the way just in time for the weekend we can all use a little bit of sweltering, i would say, maybe 23 degrees, courtney >> yeah, where we need to thaw out. it has been freezing everywhere. thank you very much, francis have a nice weekend. >> you too >> well, turning now to the markets. stocks were red hot last month the dow gaining 7.7% that marks its best month in more than three years. the nasdaq, though, did even better

jumping 9.7% the big prize goes the s&p 500 posting its best january in 32 years. other notable movers, oil gaining 18%. that's the best start to a new year ever. gold jumping 3%. the dollar posting its first two-month losing streak in a year here's how things are looking as we kick off a new trading month. futures after a mixed and at least for the session yesterday are pointing us to another mixed open today the dow jones industrial average, if we were to open right here, would be higher by 52 points. s&p 500 would open slightly hire to just about flatten the nasdaq which had about 20 points. it lost about 100 yesterday. let's take a quick look at where we are in the treasury market. earlier this morning the yoeld was sitting at about 2.6 for the ten-year, which is right where we are right now 2.631% let's bring in david nelson. he is a chief strategist at bell point asset management we ran through the market stats through the month of january

really impressive. got a lot of jazzed up by the fed and what the fed did for us. at least some of the commentary, forward-looking guidance what do you make of the old adage, "so goes january, so goes the rest of the year." >> i hope it's true. i like to believe that's true. we'll find out you hit on an important point. the fed was certainly the elephant in the room, and it can make or break our year for markets, and i think we can look back now, you know, and safely say that was a policy mistake, and they know it was a policy mistake because they've actually done 180 degree reversal and walked back a lot of the harsh rhetoric we're hearing the term patience, and markets have liked that, and i think what it did last year was it really took a pro-growth agenda, something like a tax cut, and actually turned it into a liability because the fed was acting for mandate that the united states just couldn't do anything better than 2% sustainably. every time they saw that, they slammed on the brakes, and

stocks paid the price. >> if you think that they made the policy mistake last year, i assume that means you believe they're on the right track >> i don't think they can ignore the balance sheet. i think that's really something they need to focus on. maybe 50 billion isn't the number maybe even 35. we have to do it because even if we bring the balance sheet down, $1.5 trillion, that will only get us to 2010 levels and that's two times where we were in 2007. i don't want to see them walk away from it it has to be addressed where. >> fair enough the trade and what's going on with china is also another big elephant in the room a factor that markets pay attention to we've got some commentary out of president trump yesterday, but really no super forward progress i wouldn't say we have nailed anything down. >> it's a tough negotiation, and, look, both sides want a deal the president certainly needs one politically. the economy needs it certainly china needs it we just saw a manufacturing number that was soft again they're in contraction at this point. i think it's important for the viewers to understand that, you know, we're not negotiating with a partner or even a competitor

this is an adversary, and every sense of the word, whether it's trade, economic, foreign policy, even militarily, this is the new russia we're going to be going up against these guys for a long time, and even after we get a deal, they're going to cheat, and we're going to have to come back to the table and do it all over again >> what does that mean if you are an investor? if ultimately we get a deal, but what is the deal really meaning if you are working with an adversary? >> it's not all in, all out. you'll have to pick and choose your spots look, it's a big part of the economy, and it's certainly a lot bigger for them because the numbers just simply don't add up for them you know, it's much more important for china than it is for the united states. the one area that i'm concerned about, the president cannot cross the line on intellectual property he has to dig in there even if it means paying for us here that's an area we just can't cross there. the forced transfer of intellectual property, that's the crown july we can't give that away. >> china probably doesn't want to budge on that one either. isn't that the biggest sticking

point, and that's what we went after in the first place >> president xi understands something, and here's where he has an advantage he understands that here in the united states, unfortunately, our politicians are forced to think approximate in terms of an election cycle they think in ermz it of decades. they've been playing that card for the last 30 years, and they've known that politicians will defend the status quo because nobody wanted to upset the apple cart i think this president has some resolve here on this yok he is going to cross the line >> what about earnings season so far? we've heard from a lot of players. we still have a number of big ones today, and we have chef rob, exxon, and oil names that are really important for us. >>ist been kind of mixed in some ways we stepped over a lower bar. maybe my biggest concern on the market this year is that starting in october we started to see estimate recisions start to are over. in the end that's what stocks are follow back then in october i any we were looking at $176 for the s&p 500. we're at about $170 reason that's not the end of the world. it's not terrible, but it's something we obviously have to watch.

right now i'm running a barbell approach, and i'm kind of -- i've got two model one tilted towards value and high cash flow names, and the other side is high estimate revision names that brings in a lot of growth stocks that would certainly be names like a work day, but unfortunately, even a name like amazon is in our portfolio we'll take a hit there >> today >> definitely take a hit >> thank you >> i think so that for being here with us today and your perspective. this morning, a top stock to watch. shares of the retail giant slumping after reporting results. elizabeth schultzy joins us now with month are where, good morning, elizabeth great to see you >> good morning, courtney. yes, amazon beating on the top and bottom line in a very strong holiday quarter revenues hitting -- that's up 20% from the year before weaker than expected revenue guidance is weighing on the stock this morning in extended hours. amazon saying it expects costs to increase this year as it makes investments in warehouses,

infrastructure, and overall head count. amazon cfo brian also highlighting e-commerce regulations in india as a headwind on the earnings call last night take a listen. >> our main issue and main concern is trying to minimize the impact to our customers and sellers in india we've built our business around price selection and convenience. we don't think the changes help in those dimensions for both the customers in india and also the sellers. >> meanwhile, amazon continuing to deliver in high margin businesses like it's cloud business aws and in advertising. sales in amazon's other segment, which is mainly its ad business, jumping a 95% year-on-year on-line stores showed steady gains, while physical sales decreased mostly due to costs associated with whole foods. now, some analysts are cutting their price targets for amazon this morning, citing that light guidance, but the stock is still up nearly 10% so far this year courtney, back to you. >> such an interesting name with

so many different business verticals to pay attention to. you wonder if it's a sigh of relief that grocery isn't that easy you noted that the physical sales for amazon down about 3%, and a big part of that is whole foods. >> i think we'll have to keep an eye on those grocery stocks today. it's a great point because ultimately, amazon is in so many different sectors that it can't have the same model across all of those it has to take a different approach to physical stores as it's taking to on-line stores, as it's taking to its subscriber services it's an important thing to watch how it's doing i would have a quick point on that, employment here in the u.k. it did announce that wage hike in the u.s. and also here in the u.k., and amazon highlighting how it's had an abundant number of interest in workers since that hike both here and in the

u.s. whether it relates to the whole foods and grocery acquisitions, a lot of workers interested in working at amazon thanks to the wage increases >> we certainly paid a lot of attention to the wage hikes here in the u.s., but you bring up a good point and remind us that also had an affect in the u.k. as well. thank you for joining us horng >> thanks, courtney. well, here are a few other stocks to keep on your radar today on this friday, february 1st. semantec expecting better than third quarter results on strong performance consumer and enterprise business. it's raising its guidance. the software security maker says its cfo will be stepping down later in year.

deckers profit more than doubled easily beating forecasts the maker of ugg boots and sandals benefitting from higher sales and a lower tax bill counting down to the morning's big jobs number. the key things that you need to watch coming up next first, we're asking the athletes football's biggest night is coming up, and the players are speaking out on all things business eric is being a good sport live for us in atlanta. good morning, eric >> good morning, courtney. that's right we talked to players on the patriots and the rams as they get their investment takes, stocks they want to buy, companies they want to be the ceo of it's going to be really interesting. you're going tli to kehe answers when worldwide exchange continues. with my annuity, i know there is a guarantee. it's for my family, its for my self, its for my future. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retire your risk dot org.

cnbc caught up with some players ahead of the super bowl to get their take on everything from business to the economy to the one stock everyone seems to be talking about today, including us let's get over to eric he is live in atlanta with more. hi, eric >> hi. that's right, courtney good morning these players, they've got to talk to reporters all weeklong from all around the world. they get asked a lot of football questions, and we thought we're going to mix if up for them and ask them some business questions. it is earnings season. first, let's start with the patriots i asked them if you could buy

any one stock right now, what stock would it be? here's what they had to say. >> amazon. >> space ex and elan musk and what he was doing with tesla >> i have awe few things going i loo he have that up to the financial advisesor. >> amazon, jeff bezos continues to do. it's incredible. >> i'm a good financial advisor, and i fully trust him. >> that was if you had to invest in the company, but for the rams we took it a step higher and said, look, if you had to be the ceo of any company in the entire country, which one would you pick you could control them and call all of the shots here's what the rams had to say.

>> chick fillet, open on sundays. >> chef rob. everybody has to get gas >> what was the question >> nestle, they own a lot of stuff. >> buffalo wild wings. bw's >> probably apple where. >> give me wal-mart. >> amazon 15 years ago they're taking over the world. >> it's not a ceo title. who is the ceo of cnbc >> that last player was obsessed with costco, which i know you would appreciate it. so many retail picks i think they took their person experience, life experience and bringing that to companies that they would want to be in charge of courtney >> i think that makes a lot of sense. isn't it part of warren buffett's advice you should invest in what you know and understand. everybody shops at wal-mart.

the rams seem to have a little bit more variety than what we heard from the patriots unless maybe you guys were just being selective in your choices there. i know two different questions >> they seem to be all am zplon, guys, nike guys, gatorade guys they're a well run cohesive unit the rams are l.a., hollywood, and got a lot of different interests. you saw a lot of different picks out of them. being the ceo, different from being an investor. maybe that's why you saw that diversity there, courtney. >> very interesting stuff. thanks for getting up early with us have a great day >> coming up next, jobs, jobs, jobs investors anxiously awaiting this month's quarterly reports we're going to tell when you worldwide exchange comes back.

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>> here's a nice shot of chicago this morning it's a full 8 degrees. it's a heat wave there, considering the temperatures that those folks have been suffering through. thaimgs for joining us the crock is ticking towards this morning's jobs report here to discuss is daniel demartino boost. she's ceo of kill intelligence thanks for joining us here today. we had a pretty monster jobs report for the month of december is that going to sort of steal some of the steam from january, or what do you expect here 165,000 jobs, i believe, is the estimate for economists. snoo ill hard to believe that chicago does have a heat wave hitting and it's south of double digit temperatures, but january in general was very warm, and we saw quite a few construction workers and we saw manufacturing payrolls in the adp report hit a high for the cycle it wouldn't surprise me if there's a little bit of upside

in the morning's figures again, december was so strong. we do look for pay back. i think investors, though, are going to definitely have their eyes on whether or not the uptick in the unemployment rate in december was an abhoration or iffist going to stick and whether or not we're going to see continued wage gains >> ilt going to be very difficult to discern who -- what the outbreak was beyopd government pay roles, and that will not come through in the figures. the best way that it's described to me is we're not going to go back to restaurants that were closed because there was no business our stomachs are only a certain size we'll see more of this because of the polar vortex come out in

next month's figures as well there's going to be some permanent loss of business, some government contractors because of the persistence of the shutdown they will have also been affected i do look for some noise to parse out in this morning's data we've never had the government shutdown for slopgs we have. >> yeah, that's true if we can change our focus and talk about the fed and what the fed has told us, which is very different from perhaps their policy last yearsflo we saw challenge come straight out of the gate 24% over last year we had record merger and acquisition tooit in 2018. we're going to see the after effects of that in increased synergies and that means layoffs as well. i think there are data points.

the sharp dough clines we've seen in consumer confidence that have definitely hit the fed's radar screen, but it is very unusual as a former fed insider to see this magnitude of a swing. what a difference a month can make obviously, stocks are up by the most since 198 p, as you have been reporting all morning long. now there's almost a 40% probability of a fed rate cut. inside of a 30-day window, boy, has the fed made a difference. >> i'm sure that the federal reserve is paying attention to what's going on with the trade talks. i know it's not par the mandate officially, but certainly if we have some kind of movement one way or the other, that could potentially change what we're looking at for economic growth, could it not >> oh, absolutely. i mean, look, a lot of companies, obviously, in the current earnings season have reported that business is better than what was expected look at boeing it was a blow-out. by the same token, we know that jay powell is somebody who has

deep ties among executives and he naps the industrial complex so he is going to be listening to companies like caterpillar and fedex, for example, that was much earlier on in their earnings season that have been saying, you know, we can barely count the number of countries out there that are not in a contracting mode 40% of s&p revenues come from overseas it's obvious that the global trade slowdown is what is impacting activity that is becoming -- that has begun to come on to our shores. >> certainly a lot of things here to watch today, and not the least of which is the jobs report and any movement on the trade talks. daniel danielle, thank you for being here on worldwide exchange >> thank you zplierjs as we head out, we'll have another quick check on the futures. at this point we are mixed ahead of that opening bell, and before the jobs numbers dow jones is poised to raise by about 45 points at this point. s&p 500, and nasdaq, however, would open slightly lower if that bell were to sound right now. we've got that jobs report

coming up as well as consumer sentiment and many more data points thanks for joining us here on worldwide exchange this morning. "squawk box" is next silicon va? with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted. and the ability to make a thousand decisions before you even make one. was all this, really necessary? what do you think? ♪

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the s&p posting its best quarter since 1987 one fang stock weighing heavily on the nasdaq this morning details are straight ahead what happened? >> i'll tell you later >> okay. plenty more earnings on -- is he gassy again or something >> no. >> we're going to hear from merck. chevron, speaking of gas, and exxon before the opening bell. we bring you an exclusive interview with exxon ceo plus, it's jobs friday, which i can't believe that it came this quickly. we'll tell you what to expect

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