>> you have to get used to it for sure. >> i think they're anticipating a ton of competition on original content from disney and everyone else so they really have to mark theirs, which they're getting a lot of credibility right now. >> just so much of it, though. >> they just turned the lights off on us. i think that marks the end of the show and end of the week. >> have a good weekend, everyone "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee. here's what's on deck. as the rally rages on, there is one chart that signals even bigger gains for stocks this year if history is any indication we will explain. plus gold is surging but that shouldn't surprise you if you listen to the chart master he is bhack to tell you how long the rally will last. all three of the major indices hitting the highest level since the beginning of december the dow locking in its six

straight week of gains it is the final countdown to another big week of earnings that could tip the market in one direction or another general motors, twitter, alphabet, disney all on deck gm and twitter the two standouts of the group this year we thought it would be a perfect time to play trade it or fade it. >> you love this song. >> this week it's been horrible music week on "fast money. oh, come on. >> oh, because we had survivor, eye of the tiger the other day >> we're going to play trade it or fade it >> alphabet, the stock is up 7%. trade it or fade it? >> it's up 12% over the last couple weeks most people would say trade this sucker, it's a compelling valuation, it's a great company. sw swizzle is saying fade it. well, the last two quarters the stock has traded down 5%

they have only beat eps estimates 11 out of the last 20 quarters pretty much the same thing with the revenue. i think they're setting up for a disappointment i'm in the fade camp. >> i'm definitely a trade it valuation to me is very compelli compelling multiple businesses that are undervalued, including youtube i think the regulatory headwind has been well flagged and i think google management of all of the management teams that have this kind of exposure seems to me the most balanced in how they're preparing it whether perception is reality, investors don't think these guys have a business model that is flawed and that's what it comes down to. >> you mean like a facebook problem. >> i'm not going to say it. >> i don't think privacy concerns are done yet. there's still a headwind -- >> so a little bit of a facebook problem. >> i think it has a facebook problem. much less than facebook's facebook problem but tk kael it's chal challenged

i think costs are going up too. >> content costs are going up and usually go up at the tail end of the year. the strong dollar has been a headwind and is strengthening through the quarter. >> i do still like tech. and i think about things from a macro perspective. so when we think about sector rotation, we think about it from a business cycle perspective if we're right and the economy is slowing down, it's going to continue to grow but at a slowing pace typically tech does well investors look for companies that can grow when growth is slowing, increase productivity, so we still think the sector as a whole can do well. let's move along general motors is up 16% this year trade it or fade it? >> i'm definitely trading this one. i'm the most excited of these names. the fact this company generates $4 -- >> hold it we have to issue a correction. go ahead >> this is a company despite all of the negative chatter about the price action of the company, they have continued to perform they gave us updated

information. this is 5.7 times earnings for a company that's very well run mary barra is my candidate to run for president as far as i'm concerned. i love this company. >> this is one where i would fade it. 24% up since december basically, had a large move right out of their shareholder/investor meeting. i think a lot of this is already in the stock all the good news that tim said, the stock never holds the good price. it always rolls over, regardless of the positive headlines and the name. >> how's the stock market done over the last, i don't know, eight years, mel >> eight years >> i don't like where you're going with this. >> it's done pretty well. >> and so you're going to say gm has underperformed. >> underperformed? where's the stock close? 38.5 you know where it was this time 2010 i don't know, 38.5 the stock market has done extraordinarily well auto sales have been historic and gm can't get out of its own way. so who's to say that it's going to do that now i'm inclined to be in the steve

grasso camp of fade it. >> when you think about it from a sector perspective, and this isn't gm specific but it's autos, it's discretionary. you've seen this massive rotation into names and sectors that didn't do so well last year so the presumption is that's going to continue going forward. my guess is you'll see a rotation out of those sectors back into tech, back into health care, even utilities if things start to really slow that's what does well in a slowing expansion phase of the economy. >> so you're going kind of defensive. >> it's a little bit of a bar bell approach. tech a little less defensive but the other sectors maybe more so. it might be unusual to think about that but that's how it tends to play out. be careful, because when it does eventually turn, tech gets hit hard. >> disney up 2% this year. trade it or fade it, grasso. >> i'll say fade this one as well this one technically is challenged as well no one is complaining about the revenues, no one is complaining about their streaming, they're

going to be successful the problem is the stock is running into headwinds as well and it's run considerably into the spot when they report. >> it's the same thing bob iger, i think he makes 60 something million dollars a year that's not a bad job if you can get it because the stock is basically -- [ phone ringing >> party foul. >> fade it, fade it. >> i don't know why he has to call now he knows we do a tv show i apologize for insulting you. i think to steve's point it runs into trouble here. i'm going to fade it. >> so you're talking about sectors. i'm going to trade this one. this guy continues to outperform disney is the most diversified media company. media companies were knocked down 15 months ago i think people are understanding the dynamic of the control of content. disney has articulated and seems to be executing on an

over-the-top content and delivery system that's working espn solved their problems for the most part. i don't know why you would pick any other name in the sector frankly disney continues to perform in a bad environment disney. >> by the way, that was such a tim move to leave your ringer on if anyone leaves their ringer on, it's tim. >> i've been a really good boy why is guy's miscue becoming a look at tim. >> it's a fair point. >> let's move on s&p 500, jeff, trade it or fade it here? >> obviously it depends on your time horizon i think if you're in the market for the whole year, you should probably trade it. i think over the next month you might see a little give-back you have 85% of names trading above their 50-day moving average so maybe a little bit overbought the v-bottom that we've seen not the norm once the market starts to turn its attention to earnings, we believe earnings will be able to grow with the fed now out of the way you can probably maintain the

multiple expansion we've seen so far at the very least. then interestingly, january, when you have a strong january, you usually have strong full years. 2018 the big exception there the big difference is 2018 via the conference board survey, 51% of investors expected higher stocks a year later. that 51% is the highest reading we've seen in over a decade by a long shot. today over 31% i think some of that exuberance has come out of the market and i think that's a good setup for the year. >> mel, you and i every once in a while text each other, haiiku. you know what a great word is? equivocation there was some equivocation going on here. am i right or am i right long term i think it probably goes higher. short term i think you fade it >> so we're at the higher ending of the sell range in the s&p that's 2715. guy just talked about it that's where you want to sell it

the last gasp in this rally will be the china trade deal. once that gets done, that's the only thing holding this market up. >> the hope of a deal? >> the hope of a deal. when the deal gets done, the market should start to collapse, so i would fade it. >> everybody has been expecting this market to sell off. the reality is that earnings have proven that the u.s. economy is continuing to deliver for a lot of these companies i don't change suddenly and say it's full steam ahead, but i can tell you there's a lot of money that wants to continue to take this higher. >> it has to. >> i get that. and we said that 200 points ago on the s&p >> but these are -- >> if you look at the multiples and look at the earnings that have come through, the fact that you're talking about a china deal, with that and the fed out of the way -- >> the fed is not out of the way. the fed is -- might raise rates. they're not out of the way they're not cutting rates, that would be out of the way. qt is still coming off to the tune of $400 billion per year. that's not out of the way. >> how come tim didn't get a

little trade it when he traded the s&p? >> i don't have any buttons in front of me. >> see, there you go i made it happen right there. >> on top of your game other than the phone, right on top of your game. >> it's never happened before. it's the craziest thing. >> jeff has brought a chart, he is trading the s&p 500 this chart you say will point to a mega rally >> i think it points to the possibility of higher levels, slightly different of a mega party. it says party like it's 1985 i don't know if it's as fun as 1985 but probably worth going to but it's what investors are willing to pay for every dollar of earnings even in the face of an earnings deceleration you saw it in the mid-'90s in 1984 you had great earnings growth, over 20%, but you had a fed that was hiking rates in the face of that so you had massive multiple compression, not unlike what we saw in 018 you fast forward to 1985 and you saw a big earnings deceleration,

negative earnings growth, but then you had a fed back off. yes, the fed started to cut rates in the mid-'80s. so different than what we're going through now, but milts decelerated dramatically and the market was up 25%. we shouldn't expect over 25% as your base case for '19, but it is a very similar pattern in terms of earnings deceleration that could be met with higher multiples. >> the key that you just made is what's different about this time than last time is the fed is cutting rates. we're not cutting. >> futures prices in a cut in the back half at this point. >> fed fund futures are positive. >> if the fed starts cutting rates, we've got problems. >> you still have a real rate of half a percent. >> why do you say there's problems according to that chart, there weren't problems that year, at least for stocks. >> if the federal reserve is

cutting rates in 2019, i think the market has big problems. >> but the bad scenario is the fed not hiking makes people think the economy is worse than they already thought it was. i think the market is smart enough to come to their own conclusion as to whether we're going into a recession or not. but if the fed does not hike at all this year, you could see multiples at least maintaining the turn we've seen higher if not go higher. coming up, stocks are soaring this week and so is gold the chart master called it a golden rally and you will not believe what he sees next. plus, it's fast food fever but there is one stock the traders think is overheating we're live from times square in new york city. much more "fast" right aer th isft ♪ (vo) here's a question. was it necessary to create a luxury car more teched out than silicon valley? with a cockpit fit for aspaceship. hang on. radar that senses things the human eye can't. busted. and the ability to make a thousand decisions before you even make one. was all this, really necessary?

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it's easy to upgrade. and you don't want to miss out on everything epix. welcome back to "fast money. back in december the chart master, carter worth, said gold biz to break out. >> here's gold going back to the lows of the 1990s. here's the well-defined tension. we're right into the apex of this stand-off i suppose you could bet it's going to break to the downside not the bet that i would make. i think gold resolves this stand-off up and out. >> since that december call gold is surging today the metal hit its highest level since april but carter says the golden rally is not over carter, what are you looking at? >> well, commodities as much as anything have a way of getting much worse than the imagination

will allow and can surge i think that's what's going on here i think you've got plenty more to go. let's draw some lines. no drawings or an taknotations m but there's a lot of tension here to basically get resolved up let's go to the next chart and see what you can see with just the downtrend line same chart and what's key is, and you can see this here, we've just started to move above the downtrend line from the all-time peak back in 2011. let's draw it another way. it doesn't have to be head and shoulders, you can call it a cup and handle but it all points to a resolution higher, despite the little bit of strength we've seen already and then the long-term chart cisco is worth more than any company in the world and gold, no one wants it down in 1999 what we have again is this well-defined setup a lot of tension here too we're just starting to

get above and break out from that level and then also this gold, same chart, but its relative performance to all commodities. this is setting up for a pretty important breakout on a relative basis to all-time highs. i like it a lot. finally if we were to have a vehicle, a gld is as good as any. it's all very se metrical. you can see the cup and handle there's symmetry the setup is right in principle. this part here corresponds to this part here higher like it. >> does it matter what the dollar does, carter? it does, but in terms of the charts and correlations and things like that. >> the dollar has been a little slumpish and one could say that's what's caused this. but there's a great period of time the currency and -- at

least what's been released by the fed, the way the japanese yen is acting you saw is setting up for something that would suggest higher gold prices and trouble for equities, trouble for the economy. >> carter, thank you we'll see you on "options action." he is not coming back to the desk just to be clear nobody walks over here by accident. should we be worried that gold is seeing this rally? >> should we be worried in terms of what it means for the equity market probably yes if you're in the gold camp, i'm totally with carter. don't underestimate the situation in venezuela who asked for their gold back from the bank of england and were basically told thanks, but no thanks central banks are buying gold. i think a weaker dollar clearly helps. >> highest demand from central banks in 50 years. gdx, the gold miners etf, usually outperforms 3-1 on gld and that's no exception right now. basically while the market was collapsing, gdx is up 23%.

>> but how far is gold going to run? 1350 to 1370, a five-year resistance gold has been unloved, it's been underowned gold miners actually look interesting except for the fact they're merging out of weakness, not out of strength and they're running themselves better so gdx is good because i think mining companies do run better. >> gold is a tough one for us because we think from a long-term strategic asset allocation standpoint. we don't allocate gold or real assets most people do because they're trying to hedge inflation. but really the bottom you saw in gold was in that first week of october. recession fears perked up. people were worried about a hard landing in the economy you saw the employment report this morning you saw ism manufacturing back over 56. the case for a soft landing is

becoming better and better so potentially as that materializes, i think gold could lose some momentum. >> we're going to carter on "options action" where he is sounding the alarm on one big earnings loser next week i'm melissa lee. here's what else is coming up on "fast. are you ready for some football tom brady and the patriots are ready to take on the l.a. rams for what could be the team's sixth super bowl win under the man some call the greatest quarterback of all time. we'll tell you the surprising market trend that could come with the kickoff plus -- >> you are an executive. this is fast food. >> not fast food good food quick low. >> whatever you want to call it, there's one restaurant stock that's surging from the december lows, but mike khow thinks it is overheating.

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welcome back to "fast money. the super bowl is this sunday and it will be tom brady's ninth appearance since the big game. what has changed since his first championship back in 2002? let's go to eric in atlanta ahead of sunday's showdown. >> reporter: that's right. sunday is coming up real fast. 17 years ago tom brady, bill belichick, the patriots against the rams they have been here for 17 years. you know what hasn't existed that long? iphones, facebook, twitter, linkedin, g-mail, android. all these products that have defined our lives this century didn't exist but brady and belichick are still here think about the price of milk, the price of gas, the richest person and company in the world, they're all different and they are still here we talked with scott hanson of the nfl red zone and nfl network, how social media and all this technology, the communications are changing the game for him and their sports. >> as bill belichick refers to social media as you face, i

think it has changed things because it's a pipeline of information. you can watch it all on nfl red so d zone and then chat about it with someone in vancouver, canada, on your twitter or instagram. it means more eyeballs on our sport. >> reporter: over 100 million people will watch it but millions more will use that technology that didn't exist 17 years ago. ba k to you guys in the studio. >> eric, thank you, have fun so that's nine years ago, right? nine years from now what won't exist? >> probably me you know, when you get to my age, there's not a lot of time left that's unfortunate, but probably true maybe truck drivers. you ever think about that? the old truck drivers going cross country. these autonomous vehicles going to take over but you know what doesn't change >> what. >> the hard work and attention to detail, which is why tom

brady, love him or hate him, i happen to love him, is a stud. >> 17 years, by the way. tom brady's ninth appearance. >> look, nothing short of extraordinary for a guy that essentially faced the rams back in the day and those two franchises went in very different directions i think bottom line this is the rams' turn -- >> wait, so that's your prediction >> it's that time for predictions. yeah, rams. >> grasso. >> how do you hate a winner? you've got to go patriots. i'm not saying you hate him. most people don't like the guy i don't know why you've got to go for the patriots >> jeff mills. >> i've got a soft spot in my heart for boston my oldest daughter, harper, was born in boston i'm a philly guy, we sent them home crying last year, so i'll give them this year, patriots. >> let me be chris cal clerystar i'm not a boston fan i'm a yankee fan, i don't like

the red sox, but i don't particularly like the patriots but i happen to respect the patriots i'm going to give you a final score there, mel. >> is this your box? >> yeah, it is i don't know if i'm allowed to show that on tv. 35-20 pats >> we'll see we'll see. on that note, final trade time, tim seymour. >> i traded it earlier in the show i think gm again because it hasn't run and the valuation is very impressive. i think that's the name you buy right here. >> steve grasso. >> cannabis names have been on fire since december. you've had canopy growth up 100% i'm long both names, cronos. >> so go out and buy it. >> yeah. >> jeff mills. >> take a look at eem, emerging markets. i like the relative valuation, potential catalyst would be a softer dollar and something positive happening on trade. eem. >> guy. >> will you make me a promise you watch the game you don't watch it with a magazine or some apple device in

front of you. >> the whole entire game >> she will not. >> i know her. >> come on, you know me too. final trade. >> the guidance should have taken the stock lower and it went higher, that's a tell, mel. >> do not go awhe.nyer "options action" starts right after this to have a hundred percent renewable energy goal. if we don't make this move we're going to have changes in our environment, and have a negative impact to hawaii's economy. ♪ verizon provided us a solution that lets us collect near real time data on our power grid. ♪ if we can create our own energy, we can take care of this beautiful place that i grew up in. ♪ but they can be welreally expensive. a puppy, so to save money i just found them a possum.

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hey there, we're live at the nasdaq market site we've got a big show ahead for you. in the meantime here's what's coming up. >> all right, now everybody, get in crash position. >> after a big run off the lows, dan says a nightmare is brewing for one of the travel stocks he'll tell you how to play it. plus, fast food stocks are sizzling but mike khouw says there's one name in the bunch that's too hot to handle. he'll give us the trade. and alphabet it's the final frontier.