♪ it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc, 5:00 a.m. in boston and top five at 5. crude, what is driving it straight ahead earnings remaining front and center the last of the fang stocks reporting results. we'll let you know and expect from google. president trump saying that military intervention in venezuela is, quote, an option as thousands take to the streets over the weekend china facing, get this, a pork problem as it kicks off the year of the big. live to beijing, it's a real story. yep. they did it again, the new england patriots making history as they roll the rams to win super bowl liii. in case you went to bed early,

as many of us did not, we'll have all the big highlights on this monday, february 4th as "worldwide exchange" kicks off right now. ♪ we are the champions my friends ♪ ♪ and we'll keep fighting >> and they did it again good morning, good afternoon, good evening and welcome from wherever in the world that you may be watching. look at them some of you may be still partying up in boston, so maybe good morm, good evening? either way welcome i'm brian sullivan big celebrations from atlanta through new england as the pats win their sixth super bowl title in 17 years. we're going to have more on that coming up including the winners and losers in the ad wars from last night, but first let's get you caught up to speed what's happening in the markets and maybe a lot of the traders stayed up to watch the game, maybe they're patriots fans not seeing stocks do a whole lot this morning i want to talk about oil we're seeing another move higher, half percent for wti, we

are seeing crude oil 55.55, highest level of the year. opec supply cuts, the venezuela sanctions tarting to weigh a little bit on these energy markets. certainly something to watch as we highlighted the stock market, jim cramer has been very clear on this, you have to watch oil if you want to know where the market is going. this has been first part of the year oil-driven equity market. we're seeing stock futures flat right now but again it's early i heard that a lot of people like to stay up and maybe party for the super bowl we'll find out meantime, the bond market we're not seeing a big move there, but the yield on the ten-year note remaining fairly low 2.70% that will be a driving story for the first quarter of u.s. equity markets. overseas and asia, fairly quiet. we saw mostly gains across the board. japan is up, the australian markets which you don't talk a whole lot, they finished higher as well. so mostly some gains there

and in europe. again, kind of a more slow morning perhaps, but we are seeing mixed bag there with germany up and the french markets are down now, as we do every single monday on this very fine program called "worldwide exchange," let's get you caught up for your market week and kick it off today with some data little slower side of the data this week but we get the durable goods numbers today. this is the delayed report that is coming out late because the shutdown you have earnings this morning from clorox tonight and you'll have a market moving number that is alphabet. see how those google numbers come tomorrow, politically state of the union address, delayed for, well, many reasons earnings also out of disney, via come and ralph lauren and estee lauder wednesday, the weekly mortgage applications see if powell comments on the economy. on thursday the bank of england will come out with its interest

rate decision, numbers out of fiat, chrysler, mastercard and on friday, the oil rig count, we're starting to see oil rigs come down a little bit the last couple weeks on these reports as the price of oil remains in the mid 50s. earnings out of phillips 66 speaking of oil and goodyear tire as well let's dive into what matters for you and your money going forward. joining us now is jeff hersh did you stay up to watch the game >> some of it. >> you have a patriots tie going there. >> well, secretly as a giants fan i don't mind rooting for the patriots. >> giants colored also. >> bill belichick took us to the super bowl from the defensive coordinator standpoint. >> if we look back at history which you do as well or better than anybody else out there, how often does the market, the s&p 500 go up for the year when january is this january ba ram ter a real thing >> my father started the almanac

back in '72. it's not perfect it's got about 85% accuracy ratio. >> that's not bad. >> since 1950 for major errors including flat years the market was up or down 5% or less, 75% it's still -- .739 batting average now. 74% basically. but the key is when we add in the santa claus reality, the last five days, first few days, first five days of january whole month barometer since 1950, we have 27 out of 30 up years following an up trifecta 3 for 3, average gain is 17.1% for the s&p 500. pretty strong indication. >> i want to repeat that listen, if you're into history out there, market data, if we end december, fairly good. if we start january, fairly good and if we end january higher. >> yes. >> the last 267 -- last 27 times out of 30, the year has been up.

>> up 17% on average. >> those are better odds than the under in last night's game. >> somebody knew that. >> who knows anything out there makes you worried technically earnings how they've come in, the political situation? trade talks? >> technically, you know, i'm concerned about the trade line bumping up against the average we have resistance across all the markets. politically we have issues trump i think tacked to the center just a touch. >> tomorrow night will be a tell. >> tomorrow night is very important. >> does he send any kind of olive branch out to the democrats, this is not a political show, but does it matter for the equity markets if he does that. >> i think so. part of the reason the barometer works is because the state of the union is usually in january and we get the nation's agenda and priorities set by the president in the month of january. so that could be an indication as well. you could look for state of the union indicator what happens to the market around there. usually new congress convenein

january. so i think it's very important what happens with the state of the union, how it's perceived and what the democrat's response is the whole thing. we're dealing with precarious position with china trade, with the shutdown, the wall there's a lot of political things going on. >> i like the tis hor kal data, history is on our side from an odds perspective. >> right. >> that doesn't mean everything. >> no. >> i seem to remember back in 2008, which we know was just a lousy year for the equity market. >> sure. >> we saw a couple of big rallies inside of what was a crummy market. >> very true. >> that's a technical term, crummy. >> it is technical we see this in bear markets. there's an expression it's like a basketball bouncing down the market. >> as it goes down. >> as it goes down it's not uncommon. you mentioned '08, we had a solid technical bottom year with one of the worst weeks ever and i think we had a technical bottom year spiking up well, market internals getting ugly on the christmas eve crumble as

i've coined it recently. but, remembering '08, we retested i went lower in march '09, not so much lower percentage wise but still there's a potential to retest. >> how low >> but going back to this market, 27 out of 30 times when we had what happened in december, january and the month of january we ended the year higher. >> correct, 17% for the s&p. >> love it leaving us optimism in the second trading day of february jeff, always a pleasure. now this morning's big money stories, what else are you talk about today? con tessa joins us more. >> hi there, brian three stocks on the move today ryanair among the big losers in london reported a quarterly loss hurt by a 6% drop in fares. the company is warning that overcapacity is likely to continue driving those prices lower. sony fell 8% in japan to six-week low it was the most traded stock on the nikkei today. the company reported a lower than expected third quarter profit on weak video game sales.

there you can see down more than 8% nissan dropping plans to build its next generation x-trail suv in the uk. the car maker sites uncertainty surrounding brexit it's up just almost a percent. nissan says the vehicle will now be produced at one of its factories, brian n japan. >> contessa, thank you we'll see it in a few minutes. up next, the crisis in caracas continues. pressure mounting on nicolas maduro and now president trump is speaking out. we'll lay out exclusively what the future may hold for u.s.-based citco and later the final fang reports, alphabet earnings are on deck. what to watch and how it could weigh big on the big tech names. stick with us, "worldwide exchange" just getting started and we're back after this.

what would make you use the u.s. military in venezuela >> it's an option. >> would you personally negotiate with anything las maduro to convince him to exit >> he has requested a meeting, and i turned it down >> president trump refusing to rule out military intervention in venezuela the president's comments come as the u.s. and several allies step up pressure on nicolas maduro. new this morning, france, spain, the uk and now denmark all recognizing leader opposition juan guaido as venezuela's true

president. following aphthouses took to the streets in duelling protests one for and one against maduro. while the outcome in venezuela, whether strong man maduro can remain in power or if the government of u.s.-backed juan guaido succeeds in taking power remains an open question there's another big unknown, business side, most valuable asset, u.s.-based oil company citgo. let's lay out what's going on now and a few possible outcomes. scenario one, maduro steps down or is ousted u.s. ordered all citgo to diverted to new u.s. controlled count to flow to the guaido administration the billions flow to them and things carry on. this is the best outcome for companies doing business in venezuela and for citgo. scenario two, maduro remains in power, it's likely russia and china to the rescue because the u.s. government will keep a strangle hold on the citgo money

starving the maduro regime of hard cash and have to beg to companies in china and russia, countries his government owes 10s of billions of dollars to. they would take steps to make sure citgo keeps operating third and final scenario, option of citgo a russian oil company has 49.9% claim on citgo, collateral for a loan venezuela needed three years ago. maduro falls, rosneft could force an auction in the courts that has been called a national security issue by steven mnuchin, the u.s. government may try to intervene in that scenario as well three options, three outcomes and very unusual situation for one of america's largest gasoline refiners. >> well, that wasn't complicated enough, there's actually another big angle to the story called the fourth you remember canadian hedge fund

is won a $1.4 billion claim over venezuela. venezuela doesn't pay, they could seek to force an auction of citgo to force a claim. judgment is against venezuela and its lien is against venezuela's indirect ownership of citgo pdvsa is currently challenging that lien on appeal, but we are confident that crystallex will prevail and the u.s. sanctions allow for the process to continue so crystallex can be vindicated it must be a very stressful time to be a citgo employee we'll give you more as it continues to develop right now let's dive in deeper and get analysis with a man who has really followed this more closely than anybody out there has been talking to hedge funds, russ joining us once again russ, i separated out that

cryst cryst crystallex one it exists but is on the side of the three scenarios we did lay out, maduro leaves, maduro stays, rosneft steps in. what would be the most likely outcome? >> there's even fifth scenario by the way, there's a pdvsa bondholders have a lien on the other 50.1%. if they don't get paid in april, they have the right to go after the citgo collateral as well you have a bunch of sharks swimming around the limited amount of assets that venezuela has in this country. in addition to -- >> sorry to jump many. citgo is under attack from a high dra, a multi-headed fight here you have on one hand crystallex, they have one bond the 2020 as you mentioned that could play out in april, plus, of course, literally you have a company

pdvsa/citgo has two sets of leaders kind of? >> well, the question is whether pdvsa if it's being handled from venezuela is still going to pay that bond? they're probably not going to do so come april if they don't have the citgo collateral it's been taken away from them, they're probably not going to pay and default on that bond they defaulted on every other bond the reason they haven't defaulted on this is because they would lose citgo, they lost it, they're not going to pay it. >> they ordered citgo to put it in a new u.s.-controlled trust account. the dividend paying pdvsa dried up are they getting in venezuela any citgo cash >> no. as a matter of fact, the u.s. sanctions early on put a sanction preventing any dividends to venezuela a year ago citgo was prevented from sending any money back to

venezuela already. so, in terms of dividends. now they're prevented from even doing business with venezuela, so that revenue is one of their largest downstream assets. that revenue going back up for buying those cargoes has now dried up and in addition, citgo was also being used to send them back this paint thinner that they need to mix with their heavy oil to make it go through the pipes and be able to be sold otherwise it's just tar. so, they won't be able to get that from citgo anymore either it's quite a blow and very, very -- goes back to what we were talking about last week, very, very strong sanctions. in addition, by the way -- >> sorry to jump in. i spent the weekend reading about different analyst reports on where venezuelan oil production may go, 3.7 million 20 years ago barrels a day, now 1-1 at best. most people think they'll easily drop below a million barrels a day in the next days and weeks and go to 3 to 500,000 barrels a

day because they don't have the workers, don't have the money. now the citgo cash is cut off. how long, russ, until pdvsa and thus the maduro regime is simply out of money with which to buy off the military which supports them >> that's part of the strategy you hit the nail on the head they're trying to starve the regime of cash so that the mafia families sitting around the table running that country from the military and the others will be forced to turn on each other and say, oh, i can do a better job than you i should be running this you get your fair share. you get your fair share and solve it the way mafia families often do and make it easy for us to resolve this difference. >> there have been calls including one this morning from spain they need to hold a new presidential election. a real one asap. do you think there's any chance that's going to happen >> yes is the short answer

it will eventually, not under maduro, though by the way, sweden has also joined in and that's also important because pdvsa has a smaller refinery in sweden which also has bonds outstanding but, that means that they're going to lose that asset as well in europe as a result of all of these changing allegiances >> do you think there's u.s. military action in venezuela you yourself reported some talk some troops may be massing near the border in colombia. >> there are indeed. what's happened now is that guaido, the interim president that all of these nations that you spoken of have recognized as well as the u.s. and the urinen parliament have called for u.s. aid, called for aid to be administered colombia is answering that call, u.s. is answering that call, brazil is answering that call and abc islands are also answering that call. so, troops are massing on the

venezuelan side to block it, even though they're starving and this is going to be a big test of whether they will fire on people bringing aide, food and medicine into the country or will they link arms with them and realize that there's a problem because their families are starving, too. the generals at the top making money from narco trafficking are doing fantastic. it's the guys at the bottom who can't feed their families who are really starving. >> or will those troops defect and try to rush into colombia, as we've seen many do already, right, russ? >> exactly exactly. >> humanitarian disaster russ following this story more than anybody out there in the world. we appreciate your time on "worldwide exchange" this morning. russ, we'll see you soon thank you. up next, we are also on washington watch president trump sounding off on a slew of hot button issues all ahead of tomorrow's state of the union. later, china has a big pork problem as it gets ready to kick off the year of the pig. this is a big story. we're going to lay it out.

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again next week. president trump tells nbc he is not ruling out another government shutdown on february 15th or declaring a national emergency to pay for a border wall. >> i don't take anything off the table. i like like to take things off the table. it's that alternative. >> reporter: an alternative lawmakers are trying to avoid. >> a lot of us are going to do everything we can to try to make this work, to get the yes, to avoid another shutdown, a wall, a fence, a barrier, whatever it takes. >> i think we can get to a solution, but it does need to include barrier funding. >> washington cannot dictate what sort of barrier and where to put it at. >> reporter: with house speaker nancy pelosi refusing to pay for a wall, the president says she's the one standing between federal employees and their paychecks. >> she can keep playing her games, but we will win. >> reporter: the white house announced the pentagon will send some 3,700 more troops to the border for 90 days tomorrow night expect to hear more on that plus details of a

second summit with north korean leader kim jong-un. >> you'll be finding out probably state of the union or shortly before but the meeting is set he's looking forward it to i'm looking forward it to. >> reporter: he's 50/50 on whether they'll reach an agreement to end north korea's nuclear program. and the president also defended his decision to pull u.s. troops out of syria he continues to say, that isis is almost defeated, 99% he said in that interview despite his intelligence chief saying otherwise to congress last week, brian. >> tracie potts, thank you we'll see you again tomorrow morning. of course wednesday after the speech tracie, thanks. up next, we are headed live to beijing, china, getting ready to kick off the year of the pig. but chinese hog farmers may not be celebrating it's got a lot to do with the trade war. we'll explain. scores and more. if you went to bed early and missed the super bowl, you're smarter than us. we'll give you the low lights and talk about the ad wars mi ucongp. minimums and fees.

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ympbl oil alert. we'll find out what is fueling this rally straight ahead. pig problems china kicking off the year of the pig, but they have major pork issues. that's always a travesty and the most boring super bowl ever? maybe. many calling last night's big game a big dud what does that mean for the millions spent on ads? we'll dig in as "worldwide exchange" celebrates right now

♪ all i do is win, win, win, no matter what ♪ ♪ got money on my mind, i can never get enough ♪ ♪ ever time i step up in the building ♪ >> two big winners last night, number one the patriots, congratulations. number two, anybody who went to bed before the game was over you won. congratulations. we lost. hi, everybody, i'm brian sullivan thanks for voining us on this monday everything you need to know in 60 seconds >> winners >> smart people winning. >> that's a lot of hashtag winning. cbs nbc right now, president trump says military intervention in venezuela, is quote, an option the president's comments come as the u.s. and several al lice step up pressure on socialist leader nichololas maduro to ste down thousands people took to the street in venezuela in duelling protests over the weekend both for and against maduro shares of ryanair are falling this morning europe's biggest budget airline reported a quarterly loss.

they say it was hurt by a 6% drop in the fares. the company warns that overcapacity is likely to continue driving those prices lower as you can see the shares down now 4 1/2%. investors closely watching alphabet today the parent company of google is the last of the fang stocks to report. those ruesults will come after the closing bell >> i have a feeling you have not heard the last of the term alphabet or google on this network today. thank you. a check on this morning's other top headlines outside of the world of money and business, marly hall in new york with that >> reporter: brian, good morning. the pentagon confirmed lit deploy over 3,700 more troops to the u.s./mexico border the move comes as president trump continues to push for stronger border security the re-enforcements will raise the number of forces there to over 4,300 the troop deployment will last 90 days and include surveillance of 150 miles of wire between ports of entry they'll provide re-enforcement to customs and border

protection five people are now dead after a small plane crashed into a single family home in southern california the cessna had just taken off from a nearby airport. witnesses report feeling the ground shake like a bomb went off. the dead include the plane's pilot and four people on the ground the cause of the crash is under investigation. pope francis has become the first pontiff to visit the arabian peninsula. he touched down in abu dhabi overnight where he was greeted by the country's crown prince. during the 48-hour trip the pope is set to meet with muslim and political leaders. he will also hold an open air mass for some 135,000 catholics. brian, back to you >> marly hall in new york. thank you very much. meantime, let's get back to the markets and find out how your mn and investments are looking to start their week, half way through the 5:00 a.m. hour and begin with crude oil hitting the highest level of the year the opec supply cut starting to work in, new u.s. sanctions also

adding a bid underneath oil, seeing 55, 58 for wti traded crude as for the broader markets stock futures not giving us a lot of help this morning dow futures down fractionally but look at the fair values up slightly hard to know, super bowl hangover effect, either way watch for those futures to movemore or less likely as the day goes on. talk now about the macro market picture, joining us is paul christopher, head of global market strategy at the wells fargo investment institute >> thank you, brian. >> good to see you on set, by the way. thanks for coming in i want to talk about china, not because they have the pig shortage we'll get to that. their naz dam down 28% over a year their shanghai composite the main index down 24% over a year. they're taking all these aggressive steps to try to help the economy. do you think it will work? and do you think there are some investment opportunities around the chinese market >> yeah, we do, but it's important for u.s. investors to remember first off that chinese

equities are really dominated by those state-run companies that are large industrial firms and we're in the middle of a global industrial production slow-down. so right now it figures that china's market -- >> that sounds like a good air case for china. >> on the equity side, yes look at the services number that came out today still above 50, still showing growth there chinese consumers still spending money. we think that growth rate in china between 6 and 6 1/2% pretty solid, pretty good growth for them being driven by what's going on there the opportunities in china are on the services side if you can get in there environmental services, financial services, all sorts of travel services, those sorts of things. and also look for chinese opportunities spilling over as they outsource into other countries in southeast asia and india for u.s. investors we think the best play is a regional play. >> okay. give us more into that what are you recommending that wells fargo clients do >> so we want wells fargo clients and investors generally

to be overweight in merging markets and we like asia very much you have a great combination there with china on the industrial side, india on the services side, more and more technology coming into southeast asia it's going to be, we think, an interesting and very diversified play going forward, so look for those opportunities for broad asia exposure. those are out there either in etfs or in other vehicles. >> does that look better than the u.s. markets no -- well, right now yes. the answer is yes just because they sold off by so much last year and we think there's more chop in the u.s. markets in the coming few weeks and even months. >> define chop. >> well, you had a nice rebound sis zins the december 21st lows. much further we think you'll run into resistance here. >> historical data says if january goes up the market more likely than not will go up. >> we think the market goes up over the course of the year, not by as much as emerging, but we could have kind of a gray winter, let's put it that way for the markets. this might be an opportunity to

sell into rallies. >> what's the weight what's the drag? >> the weight is still the on going industrial production slowdown that's global and spilled over into the u.s. political issues, we saw the president and speaker of the house still can't agree on sort of the border funding. and frankly still got issues going on with china. >> how much are you watching the political landscape? how much should ourers be watchg >> great question. the political landscape matters for the sentiment which matters for how much volatility up and down you get in markets. but we still think the trajectory or the slope of the market is going to be higher for year end so you're going to have a lot of up and down around the politics, but we think we finished the year higher around 2,800. >> overall emerging asia perhaps, india, parts of china look more attractive. >> yeah. >> paul christopher, great to have you in. have a great day thank you very much. the clock is ticking toward the chinese new year, and it is

the year of the pig but it may not be all about celebrations because we normally should celebrate hogs but pig farmers are bracing for a tough year due in part to the trade war here is more on a story on when ever i hear pork shortage, that's a scary headline. >> it is a scary headline. authorities are trying to contain desperately a highly contagious swine disease adding to the pressure, beijing recently imposed tariffs on u.s.-imported pork that's of course a countermeasure in the u.s. china trade war. but sometimes because of unexpected events, tariffs don't always work the way you think they will, as i found out on a pig farm here in china china's tariffs meant to hit american pig farmers, but not tai lin's. >> tariffs are hurting the wrong people in the short-term and might create unintended consequences. >> to retaliate against president trump's tariffs the chinese raise duties on american

pork last year to a total of 62%. but even the pig business is global this farm in eastern china is 100% american. lin's u.s. private equity fund along with an american hog farming company invested $100 million in the complex four years ago. last year the farms sold 500,000 pigs the chinese eat more pork than anyone else in the world, as much as the rest of the world combined lin's pigs have been in greater demand since an african swine fever epidemic hit the local industry last summer >> we're using automatic feeder systems. >> he says u.s. technology and standards helped him avoid the disease. >> the slaughter houses will see or meet as safe and high quality, so they will pay a slight premium over the market price. >> reporter: the epidemic also gave a boost to farmers in the

u.s. at first pork imports tanked in america when the tariffs hit but created shortages in certain provinces. the outbreak of african swine fever forced china to import american pork any way despite the tariffs. >> as we go deeper into 2019, prices should come back up again because the total livestock is just really low and also happens to be the year of the pig, so we should be lucky year for pigs. >> reporter: and american pig farmers. and pork is a favorite on the dinner table during the lunar new year, but officials say that they don't expect to see price volatility during the holidays in fact, if they do, they said that beijing is ready to step in to tap its strategic pork reserves to stabilize the market brian? >> strategic pork reserves >> uh-huh. uh-huh it's serious it's serious pork is such a sensitive

commodity. it's not only serious for you, i'm sure you like your bacon, i like my spare ribs, but it's serious for the chinese people because they see pork as a really important part of their diet, and so the government has set aside pork reserves to make sure that the people here get the pork that they want at the time that they want it >> yes, as they should and the guy said it would be a lucky year for pigs, i get it. so much pork on the plate, is it really a lucky year for pigs you know what i'm saying >> yeah, i do. i do. >> lucky short time for some pigs thank you very much. we have a news alert on venezuela, germany coming out as the latest country to recognize juan guaido as venezuela's tru president. the uk, france and spain have come out backing guaido. the u.s. and latin american countries have thrown their

support. your touchdown, rundown, all the big highlights or not, there were about two, from last night's game plus the good, the bad, the ugly and the winners and losers in the super bowl ad wars stick around ♪ we'll be burning out like neighbor lights ♪ 12 hours? 20? where's your belly rubs? after a day of chasing dogs you shouldn't have to chase down payments. (vo) send invoices and accept payments to get paid twice as fast. (danny) you deserve a treat. and by treat i mean cash. bacon-wrapped cash. josie...it's time to get yours! (vo) quickbooks. backing you.

take your razor, yup. up and down, never side to side, shaquem, you got it?

come on stay focused. hard work baby, it gonna pay off. first and goal running it for the touchdown >> that was the one and only -- there you go we just showed you all the highlights from last night's

game took 15 seconds. the patriots rolling over the rams to win super bowl liii, the final score the lowest in super bowl history, 13-3 but congratulations to all of our fans and viewers up in boston we know. he's the goat. you guys still cleaning up from the red sox parade, by the way stop winning, boston so what impact does that have on last night's ad spending they showed that more than 5 million dollars for a 30-second ad like this bud light piece >> my king, this corn syrup was delivered. >> that's not ours we don't brew bud light with corn sir up. >> miller light uses corn sere up. >> let's take it to them at once. >> joining us now is chris wily, chairman and ceo of momentum worldwide, a global ad firm. chris, did you watch the game? did you watch part of the game >> i watched all of the game i was down in atlanta up until sunday morning

>> okay. what was more boring the game or the ads? >> that is a tough question. >> it is they were both boring. >> they were both pretty boring. >> what happened >> you know, i think part of the advertising prerelease, the internet and how everything blows up, people are scared to make any real edgy ads. >> they are. i think that's it. i was watching with 20 people for the first half you look, waiting for the ad that's going to really blow you away after every ad everyone looked at each other like, yeah. >> i know. i like the ones from a business standpoint tied into a greater campaign as opposed to a one-off or celebrity gratuitous ad like some were last night the bud light, the one you just showed, the good news there, ties into than ingredients campaign it's kind of funny taking a shot at somebody. i think verizon did a nice job with the first responders tying that into an overall ad campaign there was a lot of gratuitous use of celebrity and a lot of robots. >> nobody more guilty than pepsi, right

>> than pepsi. >> what are they trying for? >> they've always been tied into celebrity if you think about from michael jackson all the way back but all they said was we're okay they had celebrities say they're okay i wasn't a fan of that either. >> we're showing you the steve carol ad i thought it was odd it's not embarrassing to order pepsi, that's hardly a ringing endorsement. we're not embarrassing. >> please, we're okay. they spent a lot of money to say you're okay. $5 million per spot. that was 60-second spot. >> yeah. >> plus production. >> bud light game of thrones, you know that the character they were putting in there crushed the skull of a guy in game of thrones. so theet retically in this ad he crushed the skull of the bud light guy i thought was odd -- went from funny to weird. >> weird, yeah. >> didn't work. >> well, the good news is maybe the campaign is dead

>> like the bud light knight. >> may be gone he got fried by the dragon slash knight. >> after having his skull crushed. >> at least it was tied into a cultural moment. >> you had to be game of thrones viewer to get it >> there's a lot of them. >> two ads watching as a group that seemed to elicit a response although verizon was good, anthony lin, i'm a chargers fan. very emotional moment. the google translation ad and the expensefy ad. >> i thought it was great and campaign for expensefy they rereleased the video, 60 seconds as opposed to 30 it was funny it was a good use of celebrity i also thought "the washington post" ad was good at the end of the game. >> that was. you also had competitors who came together. expensefied did what they were supposed to do small company that's growing, took a chance, made a funny ad,

drinking curdled milk and now we're talk about them. that's exactly what's supposed -- who is expensefy i'm looking it up on my phone. >> it ties in. you're like, wait a minute, this works. >> it was good use of celebrity. >> who blew it who was the rams of the ad world last night >> the plantars peanuts and the amount of celebrities they had in there for what? i think that was -- >> pea nuts. >> i wasn't wild about the ole ad. >> which one was that? >> the one where the mask and coming to kill the woman. >> that's right. i didn't know. >> i look like a celebrity. >> i know. i know. >> i was getting my fourth hot dog at that time >> well, the good news is the hot dogs were cheap in the stadium. did you see that they kept the prices at a dollar for hot dogs and beers under control. atlanta did a great job hosting the game. >> do you think -- it felt like companies were just nervous to be edgy. to me that's the thought you make a statement or you're trying to be funny but don't do this, don't do that.

people get upset about everything. >> i think that's the hardest part in advertising. everything in the media that we do will offend somebody. somebody will be offended by something. don't do anything. >> i saw this morning that the corn farmer's association were saying shame on you. >> shame on you bud light for taking the shot at our farmers >> chris weil, good morning. thank you. appreciate it. thank you very much. >> great to be here. >> that was more interesting than the ads up next, weighing the risks, one market pro forecasting a rather big cloud on the horizon plus your morning rbi has to do with the super bowl and stuff more interesting than the game itself as we head out, a check on this morning's dow winners and losers microsoft, apple, visa all in the green in the premarket we're back right after this. ♪

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." 5:51 in the morning. good monday morning, i'm brian sullivan monday setup right now, futures mildly in the green. we were up just a touch, but what did you expect on the monday after the super bowl as well whatever the game itself, many of you no doubt were having a slower start to your morning than usual but let's get macro talk, more about the longer market cycle. joins us now is chief strategist at silver crest asset management nice to see all bright eyed, patrick. i assume you did not stay up for the game >> no, i did not you made me go to sleep early. >> the game made you go to sleep early, too, i think. it put you to sleep. patrick, thank you very much so we got a lot of stuff behind us, right? sort of the fed now is in focus, the rate decision, very kind of surprising fed what is the next most important one or two things for you and your clients right now >> well, i think the thing that really hangs over as a cloud going forward is what's happening in europe the slowdown that's taking place. you have italy in recession, germany very close to recession

and you have brexit coming up, which, you know, less than two months out there's just a report that says that britain is completely unprepared for no deal brexit. now i think the most likely outcome therefore is that they kick the can down the road, that they actually delay brexit nobody wants to say that right now because politically toxic to say. i think that's the most likely outcome. so in the weeks ahead, i think that there's going to be some news out of europe that keeps people nervous about markets going forward, even though we have seen some positive news or relief from some of the fears we had in december. >> we had a pretty good start to the year it's been very solid seeing the russell 2,000 up more than 11% the dow jones industrial average up 7% and s&p up 8, that's a pretty good january. >> absolutely. a lot of the losses in december

have basically come back the question is whether you can get back to the previous highs and i think it's going to be that is going to require markets to sort of earn their way out. but a lot -- look, a lot of the fears that people were worried about in december have at least rece receded. the idea that the u.s. was standing on a brink of a recession, i don't think that held much water. now that's become clear that's not true with the goods, jobs data and things like that. there was a lot of concern that the fed was going to push the u.s. into recession by raising too aggressively the fed has sent signals that it is not going to do that. then there was a lot of worry about the imminence of more tariffs. and while i think we're quite a bit aways from having a deal with china, the two sides are talking now and they're not escalating i think that's -- all those three things that had markets really concerned in december have at least seen some relief

>> someone said, patrick, make the bull case for the market this year, what's the single best thing this market has going, don't say tom brady >> continued earnings growth it will be slower last year for a whole bunch of different reasons, but not negative. unless some things change, we're going to see continued positive growth given that, we are at much lower valuations than we saw at the peak of last year, and so this market has the ability to creep its way forward. i don't think you're going to see a big surge. it has to demonstrate those earnings really are there and things like europe that rattle people's cages, but slow and steady progress is better than leaping ahead and following back. >> even the slowdown is still relatively good. the numbers will be okay not like last year but decent enough. >> constructive, yes. >> i like it very constructive interview as well

patrick, real pleasure have a great week. we'll see you soon thank you. >> thank you as always, wrap it up here on "worldwide exchange" with your morning rbi it's come full circle, tom brady and bill belichick won their sixth super bowl last night. and there's some random but interesting stuff that you may not know, the only player to win six super bowls he now passes the great charles hailey hailey went to james madison university in harrissonburg university coach belichick ties legends halles and lambeau with the only head coach with six nfl titles and with the win, bob kraft ties the rooney family in pittsburgh for the most super bowl wins in nfl history. brady, belichick, and kraft all making history last night. you can be a hater all you want, i get it six wins in 17 years but there is no doubt they are a team that will be remembered forever. so congratulations to them and

everybody up there and boston that's probably still awake and you can get another parade have a great day thanks for wchg.atin "squawk box" is next ♪ i am the champion rebekkah: opioids has taken everything and everyone i've ever loved away from me. everything. i blew my ankle out and i got prescribed pain pills by my doctor. if making my detox public is gonna help somebody i'm all for it. i just wish i would've had a warning.

good morning stocks on the move this morning and cried hitting the highest level of the year. we have a full market run down straight ahead. plus, earnings remain front and center with the last of the fang stocks reporting result tell you what to expect from google. the patriots win again new england was victorious the lowest scoring super bowl of all time we'll show you which companies, though, won the advertising war. it's monday, february 4th,2019 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps,

this is "squawk box. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. joe is out today our guest host for the hour is ed lee, new york times media reporter and cnbc contributor. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour. big week for markets last week you're actually looking at the longest weekly winning streak for both the dow and the nasdaq since november of 2017 looking at the number of weeks they've been up, six straight weeks in a row of gains the dow is now exactly 7% below its all-time intraday high it hit almost four months ago back on october 3rd take look at this morning, you'll see just some modest declines, basically call this flat across the board. s&p futures are down by yeah, .03% dow futures are down by about 6 points and nasdaq is slightly positive we'll keep track of this