>> it is 5:00 a.m. here on cnbc. you can call it a high stakes steak dinner fed chair jay powell sitting down with president trump last night at the white house we'll find out what the two talked about straight ahead. the countdown is on. speaking of washington, we are just hours away from trump's state of the union address we're going to break down the key things that investors need to watch google shares under pressure today despite some strong results. there is one thing really bothering investors about the quarter. what is it we're going to tell you. we have to stick around. bp shares shooting higher after the oil giant reported a big beat we're going to bring you new comments from bp's ceo

what would a tuesday be without a riddle here you go. you ready? it's a riddle. when is a pig a bull think about it the answer is ahead on this tuesday, february 5th, as worldwide exchange begins right now. ♪ good morning, good afternoon, good evening. from wherever in the world you may be watching, and perhaps you are, in china. look at this you got happy lunar new year celebrations are underway all across asia, particularly in china, as we kick off the year of the pig by the way, the year of the pig kind of goes to our riddle because it could be good for your money we're going to explain it's our rbi at the end of the show we have a lot to do before then. right now let's kick it off and dive right into today's top corporate story, and that is google the company reporting a big jump in quarterly revenues, but investors were underwhelmed by one big thing.

alphabet went on a big spending spree last quarter joining us now on the cnbc newsline is victor anthony, alphabet analyst at aegis capital. it looked like we got advertising strong it looked like we had two million monthly active users on youtube. that's pretty good margins appeared to be the issue. is that your take-away >> yeah, it is the operating margins on the google segment in particular that declined yoer-over-year, and investors are somewhat concerned that they're in on another aggressive investment. spree, which is not the case the cfo made it clear on the call that capex in 2019 were moderate from the levels we saw in 2018. overall good growth. revenues beat. eps beat they still beat the company is buying back stock.

if you look at the expenses with moderate in 2018, advertising is strong youtube is strong. strong growth, hardware, other bets who are excited about way more on how that develops this year >> you know, in the premarket victor, the stock is down $32. that's 3%. it's an over $1,000 stock. is that an overreaction by investors? >> well, i'm not sure if it's an overreaction whenever you have the word investments for all of these companies, whether it's amazon, google, you saw the same thing with facebook with the operating margin guidance when they did that you know, that tends to spook investors somewhat you are unsure about the return of investments at that point in time these investments tepid to prove themselves over time, but there's some hesitation on the part of investors in terms of the risk assigned to it. >> i understand that a lot of new advertisers came in to youtube. is youtube still the alphabet asset that has not been

monotized to its full extent >> youtube, they called that two billion yon uusers, and that's phenomenal they talked about direct response advertisers youtube tv they're upping the content spent on youtube as well to get the asset to be a lot more competitive with media assets out there on the market. i think for the stock, though, if i want to make that quick point, i do think google -- it's a defensive play within the fangs, but i think they need catalyst to get the stock to work and move up quite significantly this year. >> victor anthony of aegis capital, giving us a quick look and one that's important we appreciate you joining us thank you very much. >> thank you let's get a check on some of the other big names that are likely on the move today bp is among the leaders in london the oil giant swinging to a fourth quarter profit. production soared. it followed its acquisition of bhp u.s. shale oil assets.

ceo bob dudley said he is bullish about where oil prices are likely headed. here's what he said earlier this morning on cnbc in europe. >> we're playing bp between 50 and 65 >> bp shares are up more than 4% in european trading right now. also to watch, gilead sciences, fourth quarter profit falling short of analyst foeshs. sales of its flagship hepatitis c drugs continue to slide. the company also highlighting some potential risks that could impact results this year that includes generic competition and demand for higher discounts on its hiv drug gilead also lowered this morning down to 4% the company's guidance for the quarter coming in well short of estimates. that stock down about 5.5% this morning.

let's get you now up to speed on what is happening in the broader markets. we we want micro let's go macro take a look at stock futures they're up decently. we had a big gain yesterday on the dow. 175 points a little follow-through. dow futures up 49. nasdaq futures are slightly down, but on a fair value basis. because of the lunar new year, you have stock markets in china, hong kong, taiwan, and south korea are closed in fact, china is closed for the week we did see japan trade slightly down australia, new zealand, and even bombay all higher. in the european trade, a lot more green on the screen as well in fact, all five of the major averages there, that's germany, france, the u.k., italy, and spain are higher let's now bring in patrick armstrong. he is cio at plurimi investment managers six minutes into the show, and i already screwed up it's only 5:06 a.m., patrick got the state of the union tonight. we got earnings season, which is

passed its midway point. numbers have been good, not great, but good. >> i had to clean out my ear i thought you said you were investing in gold? gold >> gold, indeed, we think risk aversion was very high last year gold started to do well. we think the fed moving very dovishly you've seen risk assets perform very well and justifiably so we think gold will be a big bishop of that as well the powell puts there. what he has done is he has stopped the chaos in markets and pushed it forward. the fed will be hiking again, we think, if you look at the wage growth numbers, and the overall economy is not in recession the way the market has been fairing. we think the fed is later in the year, but while they're not hiking, that's very good news for gold because he is pushing inflation a little bit higher.

there's going to be reflagsary pressures. if you look at all the go geopolitical issues in the world right now, with trade, with just politics in general, i think gold is going to be a great beneficiary of that. in china, what they did at the end of december 2018, they bought gold. they increased gold. we don't have one single data point or if that's the beginning of a new trend makes sense for them to diversify out of dollars for treasuries gin the trade -- >> outside option on gold makes a lot of sense too >> if you look at implied volatility on gold it's .5%. if you want the safe haven benefits of a potential spike, you can get a call option on gold more inexpensively than you

have been able to today. zplie know you have been a fan of emerging market, but that's a big -- that's a big space, patrick. can you go down deeper what emerging markets look particularly interesting to you guys, and also, how are you doing it again, is this an etf play? >> we think buying ahead of the trace truce is the stock to be buying there's still fears about trade. rightfully so. we think a truce is almost inevitable, and maybe even good news on top of a truce, where there's no further escalation of the tariffs. it could really put a tail wind behind emerging markets. naspers is an incredible story, i think too. if you like china and ten cent, naspars has a -- its stake in ten cent shares are worth $130

billion. you have also got russian classified ads that they value at $3 billion. they've got $4.5 billion in net cash that's a great way to play chinese growth ask get it at a discount patrick armstrong, good to see you. thank you very much. >> all right topping your other headlines this morning, federal reserve chairman jay powell sitting down for dinner last night with president trump. contessa brewer joining us now with more on what they talk about. >> yes, brian. the fedings this was an informal dinner to discuss the economy and the outlook for growth, employment, and inflation. it lasted about 90 minutes we are told trump and powell were joined by fed vice chairman richard claritta and treasury secretary steven mnuchin's steak was searched this was trump and powell's first meeting since the president nominated him to the post and follows months of criticism over the fed's moves to raise rates in november the president said

he wapt even a little bit happy about his selection of powell. >> the fomc will -- stabilize prices and will make these decisions based solely on careful, objective, and non-political analysis a senior administration official confirmed the dinner they said that they had a good exchange of views. can you either look at like, hey, i got to celebrate my birthday at the white house, or, hey, i got to celebrate my birthday with a guy who inquired about firing me. >> and nobody got a pitchfork. >> easy for me to say.

successful dinner. groo why investors need to care, and how it could impact the energy market. later on, an unbelievable story you have to hear it involves the crypto world , a man's sudden death, nearly $200 million, and 115,000 angry people stick around

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2019 could be a very interesting year, spaeshlg for oil america is now the leading oil producer in the world. about 12 million barrels a day now coming out of the ground that makes the white house likely very happy. the president is pro-fossil fuels and there is no sign he is going to take his foot off the oil and gas pedal. reports have suggested that trump could sign additional executive orders to give states more power over their energy futures and make it easier to do things like to build pipelines the number of new drilling rigs has started to slow down growth lately, and if oil stays in the 40s or $50 a barrel range, we could see the shale boom slow down slightly. oil gets the attention, but you cannot cute out or forget about renewables the eia also very bullish on the growth of alternatives particularly solar

they are, of course, a big part of many much the democratic agendas, and they are also an important part of america's energy future. you're going to hear for more calls this year for greater spending and investment in wind and solar. particularly from presidential candidates some who have talked about a green new deal notice, it is very likely tonight the president will trump his record on energy both in terms of the growth of oil and gas and how he pressured the saudis to raise production to the price of gasoline would drop with that drop in oil prices also comes new concern at the multi-year boom in shale production could fall with it. all right. let's dive now into more in the state of the union for energy and what is happening. joining us now is clay seagull, managing director of oil at glen scape. great to he so you again last time we saw each other was in austria first off, before you get into -- you got some cool data you guys do great work at gen-scape. do you expect to hear anything about energy tonight maybe

bragging about the u.s. shale boom? we're in big oil exporter now. 2.5 million barrels a day. going thereon places like europe going as far as asia our oil is reaching around the world now. >> now, here's the problem if i've got a lot of stuff over here, but i need it over here, i need something that can get it from there to there. do you expect to har more calls for energy infrastructure spending >> i think that's likely because that's the name of the game. you have to get supply to demand to the super of the market.

>> we look at that as a kind of a leading indicator that the price of houston area oil is libel to rise relative to the baseline price of oil in curbing, oklahoma. you see increased consumption both for domestic refining in the houston area and sales to international buyers through the sea-born market. that's a signal to the market to pull those barrels down from storage in curbing to the gulf coast.

>> we have started to see p early signs of that even over the last month they fell to zero in last september after being at about half a million barrels a day i think that a lot of the participants, especially the buyers in china, were worried about the trade tensions between the two countries. we seen them load in december and january on their way to china. it does indicate that some guys are a little bit less, you know, risk averse, and willing to take a bet on it. >> obviously, we've been diving into the venezuela story very deeply, and i have been tracking some of the crude oil tankers off the coast of terminal jose and lake maracaibo these are crude oil ships in venezuela that are just sitting there. sitting there. what are they doing? >> they're waiting for our clarification.

>> i can buy it. i just can't pay you sounds like a good deal. >> that stends to inhibit transactions zwloosh good deal for us, bad news for tomorrow. >> doing cool stuff there as well we appreciate it have a great trip back to texas. >> thanks. >> up next, it is the lunar new year why the year of the pig could have investors licking their chops. trust is there is a correlation here. you got to hear it first, the countdown is on president trump just hours away. like 15 hours away from delivering the state of the union address. we're going to break down the key things investors want to hear tonight stick around

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with loans, vendor payments and buying power. chat with one of our 4000 specialists and let's make it happen. the powerful backing of american express. don't do business without it. >> president trump expected to start speaking just after 9:00 p.m. eastern time. what can we expect him zporks what might the response be from democrats? nbc's tracie potts live in washington with more on tonight's big speech tracie >> well, it's a big speech, and it was much anticipated, in part, brian, because it was on again and then off again during the first government shutdown. now it's happening amid the threat of another next week.

>> he is calling for cooperation and also compromise. >> the white house says the theme for tonight's speech is choosing greatness, focussing on immigration, trade, infrastructure, lowering health costs, and foreign policy. the president is expected to point out economic success and areas where opposing parties can work together. democrats are skeptical. >> who knows what he will come out with, and who knows what he will say the day after he comes out with it. >> the audience includes 2020 presidential opponents, critics of his pull-out in syria and afghanistan and lakes who want him impeechd it comes amid negotiations to avoid another government shutdown next week hung up over the president's demand to build a border wall.

>> he currently serves as undersecretary of the treasury for international affairs. administration officials say the president will officially nominate malpass tomorrow. still ahead today, earnings, the fed, and trade all top of mind for investors how you could best position your money right now. and maybe a fang flop this morning. google in the red despite an earnings beat. why the big tech company is feeling the heat all that and more when we come back

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google shares in the red this morning after reporting results. there's one thing that investors did not like about the quarter we're going to tell you what it is coming up the countdown is on. president trump gearing up for tonight's state of the union address. we're going to break down the things investors need to listen for. and here is our riddle of the day. we're going to repeat it if you missed it. when is a pig a bull the answer has a lot to do with your money it's your morning rbi. it's coming up as worldwide exchange rolls on. ♪

if you can make it through tuesday, folks, can you get through the whole week let's kick off the second half of the show. as always, with your executive recap, all the news you need to know in about 60 seconds contessa back with that. >> here's what's leading cnbc.com right now fed chair jay powell sitting down for a birthday dinner, his, last night with president trump. the two dined over steaks at the white house. the federal reserve called it an informal dinner to discuss the economy. fed vice chair rich clarita and secretary mnuchin also attended that dinner. new overnight, p posting better than expected full year profits. the company cited a strong operating performance across all its business segments. the oil giant doubled its earnings and returned from last year many asian markets are closed today observing the lunar new year celebrations got underway at the stroke of midnight and china as they ushered in the year of the pig. many asian markets will remain closed for the rest of the week. brian.

>> all right thank you very much, contessa. let's get a check on the morning's other top headlines outside of the world of money and business nbc's francis riviera in new york with those. francis. >> i had, brian. good morning to you. we start with virginia's governor who isn't giving tinto the calls for resignation. the controversy dpoeksed on this predict from his medical school year book page the governor says he needs more time to consider his next step a deadly fire at a paris apartment believe has claimed the lives of at least eight people it happened in the city's upscale 16th district. flames ripped through the building seventh and eighth floors several people scramble odds a nearby roof to escape the fire and had to be rescued by firefighters space diagnosis ex hits a milestone in its mission to mars ceo elan musk tweeted video.

the first test firing of the video's new raptor rocket engine spaceex has big plans for this engi engine it will power star ship rocket someday, which is designed to transport up to 100 people to mars according to musk, spaceex is beginning those flights by the mid 2020s. not too far off. we send it back to you >> nothing like a good tuesday rocket story thank you. it is 5:32 here on the east coast. here's how your investments look right now as we're halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour stock futures mildly higher. a decent start to the week it was a pretty good january for the markets. dow futures are up more about 64 points right now joining us now on set, a rare treat. art hogan, chief market strategist at national securities are you still partying from the patriots victory, art? i mean, literally, did you just come from gillette to here >> all the way into the baseball season >> are you tired of winning in boston the sox parade was just a couple of weeks ago, wasn't it? >> absolutely. we'll keep it going. >> the market is kind of starting to look like the patriots in some ways.

maybe we'll call it a tom brady market just when you think it may be down or a little old, it makes a comeback what do you make of january's big comeback >> that is such a good analogy when you think about that. >> you're welcome. >> it's so good. i love that. i think what really happened was what we were trying to price in in december and how much of that do we believe is not true in january? i think that's the case. in december you heard a lot of talk about peak earnings and earnings recession when is that going to stop, and a trade war where all the news seemed to be negative, and that seemed to reverse all of those things in the month of january mildly better news on trade. we're talking. we're having meetings. we're getting further down the road the government reopened and is certainly has had earnings that while lower than the last quarter in guidance is lower for 2019, it's still earnings, right? we're going to have earnings growth of 6% in 2019 right now if everything holds together that disaster averted is being celebrated in the market the concern now is technically with the shape of that recovery, do we need to retest that low.

i think that's -- >> i guess like brady, i'm going to double down on my analogy because why not? after the parade it's probably going to go underground for a while. you know, earnings season is over we're not going to have a lot of markety stuff to trade on. we got a lot of political stuff to trade on. is that going to be the driver in the next couple of months is it going to be the fed? what is it >> i don't think it's going to be the fed i think the fed has declared they're out of our way i think the biggest change for the fed was talking about the balance sheet, but behind the scenes i think the biggest change for the fed is their data dependency means they're probably going to stop with forward guidance at some point in time. that would be normal not have a -- not try to predict how many moves they're going to make, and that's a tool that they use in the financial kries. dwoent need that tool now. i think what we will get, though, is more and more constructive conversation around the deadline for this trade talk right? as we approach the end of march, we're going to know or not whether or not we're escalating or actually we've accomplished something that we can put that tail wind in >> i don't want to call it a news vacuum, but when things

like that happen, the market can get more volatile. earnings are going to be over. >> right >> the fed is going to go off the page probably a little bit that could to me set us up for a lot more wild swings because what are we trading on >> for sure. and it depends -- >> might overreact to the news that we do get >> that's very, very true. during earnings season, when we're inundated with news, we tend to back burner some of the nuances of the conversation around trade, brexit how they're doing with brussels. >> deutsche bank whatever >> exactly i think that's very true that might cause a great deal of volatility i think, though, that the white house at this point in time has come around to the fact that they need to have a single voice on trade and want have wilbur ross come out and say we're miles away larry kudlow saying we've got a lot of work done i think both sides of that want to get something done. >> i don't want to dive too much into the politics. only as much as plenty other channels for that. only as much as it might influence our markets. >> right >> the president tonight, there's been some reports, he might extend an olive branch not be quite as tough on the language try to bring the democrats in a

little bit is that something the market would welcome? or is it ag nosic? >> i think the market would welcome that we have seen where the market welcomes the things that it doesn't like about the current administration right? whenever we get good news on trade, the market bounces. the government reopens the market bounces anything that makes it sound like we're moving more to the center is tonight would certainly be a market positive you could see any of the things happening because this is a president that, a, likes the market and uses it for a report card for the job that he is doing, and, b, he thinks about the fact that after this government shutdown, my poll numbers are a disaster what do i do to improve that i think anything you can do in terms of the messaging is helpful. >> all right finish the sentence, please. the reason to be bullish is? >> the reason to be bullish is both sides in the trade agreement want to get something accomplished and get this behind us i think that's a head wind that turns into a tail wind i think our estimates for the s&p 500 go hire not lower if we get that accomplished. >> the reason to be bearish is >> this is going to be a mutually destructive long-term trade war that we don't get out of, and we're not going to have

earnings growth. we're going to have earners recession. >> so trade is the julian edelman. i mean, i'm just going to keep going with this because why not? >> that is so good >> trade is the julian eddelman. >> it's the most valuable player >> it comes out of nowhere takes all the attention. >> right >> hopefully catches the ball. he does. >> ten out of 14, right? >> anyway, you know you beat my chargers, so i should be upset, but goodwin. art, great to see you. >> great to see you too. to the morning's top corporate story, and that is google alphabet shares of the big technology company slipping despite a beat on earnings. elizabeth schultze joining us live from london with more on what investors liked and maybe didn't look about the quarter. >> yes, good morning brian, google parent company alphabet beating on the top and bottom line in the fourth quarter. revenues hitting 39.3 billion dollars. that's a 22% increase year-on-year eps also topping expectations,

but rising costs for data centers, hardware, and head count are weighing on shares in extended trading alphabet n alphabet now employs 100,000 people worldwide they invested $25 billion in 2018 in capital expenditures, almost double the capex from the year before. operating margins in the fourth quarter did shrink lower from a year ago now, alphabet cfo ruth porat addressing the concerns over rising costs and shrinking margins on the earnings call last night take a listen. >> we do expect the rate of year-on-year capex growth will slow meaningfully. you know, with the scale of our business, and with our focus on user experience, it does require capex. we are committed to continue to invest in capex to deliver on that >> some analysts also pointing to lower costs per click figures, and this is amid increasing competition in digital advertising. alphabet showing solid growth in the google property segment,

which includes youtube and search the other segment, which includes cloud and hardware, also jumped 31%. alphabet's other bets business, those include the health venture verily and the self-driving car unit wamo, also showing strong growth it hasn't been enough for investors so far this morning, brooen shares are down about 3% in extended trading back to you. >> it's incredible i mean, two billion monthly active users for youtube it's a monster in television and getting bigger >> it's a monster, and they are putting a lot of money into that original content into licensing content. we don't get all of the broken down figures for youtube similar to how we don't get all of the instagram figures that we might like for facebook earnings, but we do know that that's a huge growth area for google it's part of the reason why investments are so heavy and why it continues to cite rising costs. they're betting that this is an investment that's ultimately going to pay off, brian. >> yeah. pretty incredible.

by the way, schultze, have you seen the show on youtube "cobra kai? >> i have not. what is that >> do you know what that is? it's modern day pick up from the original "karate kid." it's like before your time, i know >> okay. >> check it out. check it out >> before my time. i will watch it for you. >> thanks. appreciate that. coming up -- i'm going to -- we're talking trade. what investors are expected to hear from tonight. have you heard about the state of the union tonight there's a speech, and they may talk about trade, but, first, the most unbelievable story you're going to hear all day it involves a guy dying unexpectedly, but $137 million and missing pass words stick around put your workflows in the cloud, huh? mmhm. your employees must love you. [ chuckles ] thank you. you could say that. i love you. servicenow works for you.

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parading around the magic kingdom. sunday night's super bowl drew the lowest ratings in more than a decade they don't care. what do they care about ratings? they don't look they're just having fun. they're, like, big kids. >> do you think they flew jetblue to orlando or spirit airlines the old mco? >> i think if you win the super bowl, you get a chartered jet that's just you and no other passengers >> what about the kids and the wife >> they weren't in the pictures. >> you think two grown men went to disneyland alone? >> i think there were more grown men. just the two of them in the pictures >> maybe they are contractually obligated to go. universal has better rides i prefer universal >> who pays the bills? that's all i'm saying. >> universal >> two other men, senators chuck schumer and bernie sanders are calling for big changes to the way companies issue buy-backs and dividends. here's what senator schumer said about dividends overnight. this was on facebook

>> we also have to do something about dividends because we don't want them not to do buybacks and then just put it all into dividends. that also doesn't benefit the workers, and the communities, and so we'll probably have to do something on the tax side about dividends. >> okay. here you have two senators who are unhappy with the trump tax changes, and the way that the companies use the benefits from those changes just to go and buy back a bunch of their own shares they're saying we've got to do something about it they want to put some preconditions on the buy backs and, thereby, the dividends. one thing that i think is missing in this conversation is how many americans earn dividends on their 401ks and their long-term investments. this does not affect just, you know, as they like to say, corporate fat cats >> they also do -- i this i think forget -- i understand they're making political points. that's -- it's -- we're going after the wealthy now. that's going to be the agenda.

a lot of state pension funds are in big trouble a lot of states are on the brink. maybe not of bankruptcy, but they're hurting. pension funds are hurting where, pension funds are not for the wealthy. therefore, policemen, firemen, first responders, teachers, the biggest investment fund in the kraits you want those pension funds to gain a return as well. that does benefit as they would say, the working class you got to remember, you may not -- they plant be day trading, but a lot more people have exposure to the stock market than you even think a canadian crypto currency start-up has a $145 million problem, and no obvious solution the company's ceo died unexpectedly he was 30. he left thousands of customers locked out of their accounts because the ceo was so serious about security, he encrypted

nearly every part of his business i mean, his e-mail pass words and all. they've had experts trying to break in to figure this out. his pass words died with him 115,000 users can't get access to bitcoin, light coin, and other crypto currencies to the tune of between $145 million some estimates are $200 million. >> basically it's $145 million in his safe, and one guy knew the code, and, unfortunately, he passed away way too early at 30 years old, and now nobody can open the safe. >> it's kind of a cautionary taylor, right? >> you should always have -- even in this day and age, have one physical backup somewhere in a safe somewhere. something that other people can access >> plaeb ze, and they haven't found it yet, but his widow has said we've been through all of this, and we don't know where. >> wow $145 million i hate to hear the guy passed away so early. thank you. up next, bullish on pigs by the lunar new year, you could

be licking yoo you are chops from a money perspective first, the state of the union is now just, contessa, 15 hours, 12 minutes away what are you going to do for the next 15 hours and 12 minutes back after this. 11 minutes

♪ when you have nausea, ♪ heartburn, ♪ indigestion, ♪ upset stomach, ♪ diarrhea... girl, pepto ultra coating will treat your stomach right. ♪nausea, heartburn, ♪ indigestion, upset stomach, ♪ diarrhea... try pepto with ultra coating. investors will be paying close attention to whether the president will offer any new clues on american policies, like trade. of course, there are several deadlines looming on that front. kayla looks at the work that still needs to be done ♪ tonight president trump will use his state of the union to revisit his trade to do list >> we will work to fix bad trade deals and negotiate new ones they'll be good ones they'll be fair. zoo his new nafta deal still needs congress's approval, and both sides of the aisle are pushing for changes.

democrats want more protections for u.s. manufacturing republicans think it already goes too far gabriella beaumont smith is with the labor group. >> labor provisions and environmental regulations. i not their place to be in trade agreements it's supposed to be about trade. >> talks with china may have a breakthrough after two years, thanks to the impact of the economy. the white house has slapped duties on imported washing machines, solar panels, steel and alum pneumonia, and a long list of chinese products worth some $250 billion. the potential to double tariffs on china if a deal isn't reached by march 1st

>> clayton, great to have your analysis today what are you going to be listening for with trade in particular tonight >> well, first, thanks for having me. i think with trade, you hit the top notes there. the number one thing that everyone is going to be focused on is chooun look for trump to reiterate some of the messaging he has used in the last week or so talking about how we've made great progress, but he is still not going to give in with anything less than a comprehensive deal think one of the things that's underappreciated is the risk of those auto tariffs you mentioned. this is something that i think investors have kind of put on the back burner as we've focused on klein, but as you mentioned, the reports due on february 17th, so i would be looking for trump to really focus on reiterating his threats to impose auto tariffs as a way to bring the e.u. to the negotiating table. >> what the u.s. really wants from china is simple they want i.p. protection. if you are a big technology company, you are either banned from doing business in china or

you probably don't want to go to do business in china because your stuff, simply put, might get stolen at one point microsoft said something like 92% of windows installations a number of years ago were fraud lent. they were simply pirated is there any sign that china will make a hard concession on intellectual property theft? >> well, that's the thing. i think it's all up to the person who is receiving the concession it's all about what the u.s. use it as. i would also say that it goes a little beyond ip protections i think you are also looking for the u.s. to focus hard on additional market access especially for u.s. financial services firms all of these things are on the table and will require a lot of work one interesting thing, and this goes to your point about a hard concession, robert leitheizer seems to be in the heat of driving a much harder bargain,

especially on enforcement, than a lot of other people in the administration a lot of people seem to be pushing to get a win, to get some deal by march 1st to sort of prove that the white house is able to deliver on its promises. i think that leitheizer will be saying, look, let's hold on a second and make sure that this deal actually does something good for us where. >> do you think any investors or many investors, i mean, every time we talk about trade, the market tends to get giddy. do you think that the market as a group is wildly under estimating how far apart the sides may be? >> either you're going to fix the problem or you're not. i think that they have not a huge amount of patience, and

maybe even less understanding of how nuanced and how stretched out these things might again i think that there certainly is i would say that this is not directly related to trade, but certainly, you know, in an emergency declaration about funding for a border wall, we catch a lot of people maybe by surprise, and i think would change the way that investors look at the general political risk >> absolutely. i think that no one -- no one is coming into today saying that that's likely to happen. i think people are looking at that as maybe an outside chance. >> it under the circumstances puts them in a tough position with a potential vote through the congressional review act

it puts nrch a tough spot. except maybe for the white house. >> yeah. >> certainly that would blow everything up and take certainly wall street by surprise. >> all right clayton allen, we appreciate youren sight great stuff. long day ahead >> appreciate it >> wrapping up with your tuesday rbi. this is completely random. totally interesting. it is the first day of the lunar new year this year is the year of the pig. why do you care? because it could be very good news for your portfolio. get this, going back all the way to 1928, seven different lunar cycles ago, the year of the pig has been the best performing once for the s&p 500 saxo capital markets crunched the number and found that the year of the pig brings an average return for the s&p 500 of 16.5% far better than even the next best year, which is the year of the rabbit, with a locally 12% gain i think it's fair to say this. pork is not only delicious, but apparently also a solid investment strategy as well. by the way, the worst sign

for our market and the chinese markets, the sthak snake posts negative returns thankfully there is no rear year of the snake until 2025. the year of the pig could be a good one "squawk box" is next w?w?uhió'ñó

>> last night president trump held a steak summit. this time with fed chair jay powell we have details about the determine straight ahead plus, shares of google parental fa bet are under pressure. the company posted a beat on the top and bottom line. investors were surprised by spending spree in the last quarter. jim cramer on twitter this morning saying when will investors jump into this stock plus, senator shumer and sanders say yesterday they want to crack down on corporate buybacks now they're saying dividends could be next. we have to talk about that.

>> dow futures indicated up by 73 points after climbing more than 175 points yesterday. s&p futures are up by just over 1.5 points or just over two points, and the nasdaq indicated down by nine points. yesterday all three of the major averages were up pretty sharply. nasdaq was up by the most. it was up by 1.1%. you see the pullback there the nasdaq climbing out of correction territory because of th