>> you should. >> my seat belt's not even ron robert there's cars. >> there they go. >> that's the fastest the car's even driven in the cnbc parking lot. >> there's the speed bump, ladies and gentlemen all right, everybody thank you for watching "power lunch. the "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ good afternoon and welcome to the "closing bell." i'm sara eisen. >> i'm wilfred frost very well placed speed bump there. i think kelly would have welcomed there >> looked scary. president trump meantime is gearing up for his state of the union tonight. we'll dive into the state of the economy with a panel of washington insiders. that's coming up. plus, 67% of analysts have a buy rating on disney only 67% it will report earnings an hour from now we are all over that first up, though, the markets.

rising again another rally here for wall street s&p 500 up for a fifth day in a row. the nasdaq in the lead again up .7% really broad-based rally led by some corporate stories helped fueling the energy sector and other names. >> we have a bit of a middle of the day wobble back to flat on the dow and back near the highs of the day on the dow up 161 points. the high was 183. let's begin today with earnings season and what the reports are telling us about the market bob pisani has more. bob? >> companies rolling out the 2019 earnings guidance and generally moving the stocks on a day-to-day basis let's look at companies that given earnings guidance for today. the frietrend is simple. if you give above expectations for the year your stock is up. if you have given guidance disappointing like pitney bowes,

church & dwight, you're down depends on the amount of guidance that's a good way to look at it. market internals terrific recently advance/decline. great every day. more advancing than declining stocks the vix collapsed. folks, we are approaching the 200-day moving average that number is 2741. every time we have gotten around there in the last few months including going down below it in october we have had a lot of market volatility so we'll see if we get that it does matter finally on the earnings, they have been coming down but they're still positive we had 5% earnings growth for van 1st, first quarter now down to 0.5% and the debate, can this stay in positive territory as we getthrough earnings season? >> thank you very much for that. let's dive into this deeper. joining us is lindsey bell and rick santely very good afternoon to you all

lindsay, how are you numbers looking and doing better or worse than expectations? >> i think the earnings season is okay. the numbers better than expected but the numbers slashed significantly coming into the earnings period. so when they were cut by 600 bases points, up by 150 points, i think that things are better than feared so that is good news even though out quarter numbers coming down still and quite significantly. the market's still reacting positively because i think there's bigger issues. the fed is holding pat the question is on trade stocks are i think pricing in to some extent that a resolution to trade will come near term. >> where's the guidance pointing us so far? >> so far for 2019, looking for a 3.5% growth and that is down quite a bit from 6.5% at the start of the year. usually a full year period you see numbers come down by 5.5

percentage points. >> kevin, when you consider the broader outlook for u.s. equities, dufo you feel like mot of the potential good news we have had factoring in earnings and the fed? holding out for a trade deal. >> yeah. i mean, i think right now we are range bound on the s&p we have said that it's been in the range of 2600 to 2800. at this point of the rally it's going to be tough to get over 2750 i believe and we may get up to 2800 but the big deal here is that what we really need is trade resolution or we need more stimulus from china to start to feed through we need some more news to come out in order to see the s&p propel to levels higher than that 2800 right now. >> you know, rick, it is hard to keep track of the economic data with so many delays and readings coming through what's the latest in terms of what you are getting how much do you think that jobs report so strong and so

unexpectedly strong in the middle of the shutdown shuts the tone on the data >> it does but i'm not so sure if it's just because it was strong 263,000 averaged over 2 months with the revision and added everything together but i think the issue is twofold you could call it coincidental, lagging indicator with respect to employment and jobs but the fact that we are doing so well so quote/unquote late in the cycle especially when compared to the birthrate and then when you look at the actual numbers to see wages so firm, so many months in a row, average earnings year over year with a 3% handle or higher, not pushing into inflation, and you see the labor force participation rate and labor force moving lower, those are very structurally important fundamentals we garner from that data above and beyond the job creation and to take it a step further even though the data is

sparse and tomorrow i look forward to productivity and getting industrial and manufacturing productivity but it makes us concentrate more on europe and the uk and japan and europe, the ec released minus 1.6% on a month over month retail sales today that is the biggest drop month over month percentage since may of 2011 and the fifth worst number in 20 years of data i have on retail sales in the eurozone and i only say that to underscore that as the dow sits about 1400 points from all-time highs our economy might not be cooking in grease like it was but to comparison of the competing larger economies it's doing much better. >> i agree although the services pmi not as bad as it could have been today. >> the data in europe from bad to worse i feel like we need the fourth quarter gdp number for the u.s. and missing and delayed here and

that could cap off the best economic growth year since 2008 and could give us clues to where we're headed this year i don't know when it trickles out but feels incomplete. >> i agree with you. it would be nice to see where we stood at the end of the year and where we are going into 2019 and we just need to get back on the regular schedule of economic data releases. >> kevin, in terms of what sectors you like and dislike, you like industrials is that because of expectations of tensions with china easing or for other reasons? >> i think so and when you think about what we have been buying, we have been buying in the u.s., focusing on small caps and when you look at small caps, small caps have a tilt to financials and reits and then when outside of the u.s. buying emerging markets and have a tilt to technology and to financials and also some energy in there and the places we have been playing

because that's where we believe that the value is in the market especially now that the fed has paused and dovish and expect emerging markets to do better for that reason and seen the best performing emerging markets currencies bounced and now anywhere between 3.5% and 8.5% up on the year and we think that if we get a trade deal you will see more of that. >> what about the alphabet earnings tell you about the market >> i think it was related to the increased cost but it goes to show that the companies are investing in their businesses. they're investing in innovation and -- >> investing a lot. >> they're investing a lot and so -- buybacks, as well.

but they believe in the businesses it is the future of our economy we believe and why we have overweight the tech sector, as well the fang trade took a hit going into the end of the year the tech sector in general and seeing that as a sector that's leading so far in 2019 and that's probably because it's a leading economic - >> alphabet did turn around. apple is crowned with the most valuable company again so -- >> that's been changing, that title into the last couple of days rick, i want to come back to your point of worst data internationally. state of the union tonight gives us a chance to take a snapshot of the trump presidency. there's equity market returns but given that divide in economic performance u.s. and rest of the world, also what the central bank has done over the last couple of years, compared to the rest of the world, is it not surprising the dollar is down 5% since president trump took office? down 2% since he won his election victory. >> yeah, no.

i couldn't agree more, wilf. it is a big deal and even today while interest rates were very lethargic and tight ranges and the equities have bolstered i notice that relationship, that correlation is weakened a bit but the dollar did pop through 96 it is trading above that if you look at intraday chart and see hitting that price how it accelerated upwards in a quicker momentum i guess the answer here is there's always so many turnstyles with foreign exchange the financing of others trying to purchase dollars, what they're invested in, the capital issues involved and then add in central banks, logistics and widely traded in open interest and gets a bit confusing at the end of the day i really think that it isn't so much trump. i think the issue with the dollar mostly is that traders really do believe that the dollar is most likely not going to be able to bunch through and that they have been dogging a major short position globally on

and off for many quarters. >> thank you, rick and thanks to lindsey bell and kevin nicholson. the first meeting since trump nominated pow toll the post and since complained about him a few times. senior economic reporters steve liesman with more on what was discussed and what they dined over, steve. >> yes it was a much awaited meeting of jerome powell and president trump last night the two sat down for a 90-minute dinner and others were there steak was served, sara and they talked or chatted and discussed about the economy. the fed said in a statement powell stuck close to the words of the last week's press conference and didn't discuss expectations despite the criticism of the fed by the president, a source said there were no pitchforks and had a good exchange of views trump is critical of the fed for calling interest rates this was the first meeting also

since the fed shifted policy toward a more neutral stance in january which the president had argued for dinner also attended by fed vice chairman and steve mnuchin the president extended the invitation on friday how unusual is this? not unusual. they're rare and do happen you remember chair yellen met with trump in october 2017 that was a job interview yellen and obama met amid concerns of a slowing economy 2016 yellen and obama again november 2014 and then when we were in the middle of the banking crisis, bernanke, bair and president obama met in 2009, sara. >> steve, i wonder whether the president had the chefs delay bringing out the food just to see how patiently the fed chair would wait in the meantime. >> that's a good point i didn't ask that question, wilf i should have figured out how

patient to wait for, for example, one hour, two hours i understand the whole thing was 90 minutes. >> maybe not that long back to the serious point. clearly there have been meetings of this sort in the past as you listed. >> right. >> but never to the same extent as heated. i guess had this happened six weeks ago or two months ago the focus would have been extreme, would it not >> i would think so and i would think they wouldn't meet and didn't do and may be why look as far as i can tell, the heat is only rhetorical heat only on one side the way these things work is congress complains about the fed all they want and the president will the fed cannot essentially publicly answer back and only say we don't make the decisions for political reasons and all they can say in fact, wilf, i'm reading a book about the fed's independence basically arguing that congress created the fed so that we could blame it for

everything wrong with the economy and the essential thing that the fed provides everybody. >> i can't believe there's a fed book you haven't read. >> i just got it at the annual conference the mitd of independence it's called. >> there we go great stuff. thank you very much. >> sure. up next, one of the biggest winners in trump's tenure and a frequent target of his criticism. we'll reveal the man whose net worth bloallooned since the president took office. lloyd blankf ein weighing in. reach out to the show. give us a twitter exchange on facebook or send us an e-mail. "closing bell" after -- we'll be back after a break that rocking chair would look great in our new house. ahh, new house, eh? well, you should definitely see how geico could help you save on homeowners insurance. nice tip. i'll give you two bucks for the chair.

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blankfein tweeted today, quote, a company used to be encouraged to return money to shareholders. the money doesn't vanish it is reinvested in higher growth businesses to boost the economy and jobs s. that bad that e liz sited a reply from senator sanders on twitter saying, quote, lloyd blankfein of goldman sachs is correct that money from stock buybacks doesn't vanish it increases the wealth of billionaires like him. how about increasing wages for american workers is that a bad idea and, sara, the thing here we have debated the pros and cons of this debate yesterday but two things, one is lloyd blankfein being someone to tweet at us feeds the politicization of and -- >> banker goes after him. >> and then to point out that the last tweet we got from lloyd blankfein was in july last year. 17th of july when they made the

announcement that david solomon to take over, blankfein said looking forward to unrestrained tweeting and we haven't had them since solomon became - >> getting more involved in politics >> no. we were expecting that and i wonder why he hasn't since stepping down facing the other scandal. he's decided to step up to the plate and clearly come back to -- >> what it's indicative of is if you have other ceos or executives the throw the hat into the ring i'm not sure it's a policy they embraced having, you know, participated in these kinds of activities that are shareholder friendly and i think from what we have heard on cnbc from wall street economists, some academics, you don't want congressman dating how much to pay the employees and a slippery slope. >> giving a company free reign to allocate capital and whether

stocks are owned by the 10% most wealthy and to be readjusted through a capital gains tax. >> goldman pays higher than minimum wage, right? >> i would think significantly higher yes, i doubt there's anyone that net out at $15 an hour for their year's work. >> speaking of welty people, a surprise winner in president trump's first two years in office, a man who's drawn frequent criticism from the oval office, that would be jeff bezos. robert frank joins us with more. >> you're not in the lamborghini anymore? >> no. we brought it back, unfortunately. no other ceo received more criticism from president trump than jeff bezos and no other ceo gained more wealth in his presidency president trump has tweeted about bezos more than a half dozen times since he was elected and criticized his ownership of "washington post," shipping rates from the postal service and of course wrote about the national enquirer expose saying

so sorry to hear the news of jeff bozo. the wealth doubled since trump was elected making him the world's richest person and adding $67 billion to his total. no other billionaire added so much wealth in the trump years in fact, only four people in the world are worth more than the $67 billion that bezos gained just since the election and still down from his high of around $160 billion with that decline in amazon stock. he owns about 16% of the company. but that divorce that we mentioned could become more costly than criticism from president trump. guys >> though i read somewhere that even with the divorce and if he loses half of his assets takes him back to before the trump presidency robert, i mean, what do we know about the conspiracy theories around the bezos divorce to leak the pictures

there are we believe sites and theories out there that some of this was politically motivated by people with ties to the president. >> we don't know anything. there are rumors that maybe it was her brother, maybe it was something that she shared to a friend and since the day that this divorce was announced that bezos announced it on twitter, he hasn't said anything. we have nothing from reliable sources. we don't have a divorce filing yet. so look. it is possible that they may not get divorced i suspect they will now that it's announced and we know nothing typical bezos fashion. he keeps everything private. that's more startling than the numbers of the divorce is how secret and private they have kept it. >> robert ux great stuc, great . thank you. i would say, sara, not that robert was articulating this particularly, but of the companies not beneficiaries of

trump's cyclical growth, amazon is one of them it is a structural growth that's delivered this doubling of the wealth. >> not a beneficiary of the tax cut. >> maybe the banks certainly for the first half of his presidency, not so much the last year and could have said that's very much -- >> overall, a better consumer environment helps. >> i think most of that share price gain is structural growth factors. anyway, 37 minutes to the close. the dow up the high was 180 or so we're near the highs of the day. the low came pretty much lunch time and a decent last couple of hours taking us up 0.4%. coming up, the state of the economy with gene sperling and ex-trump campaign adviser stephen moore. the world bank may be closer to getting a new boss. details on the man sources say will be nominated to lead the organization

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with 34 minutes to go here before the closing bell, we have a rally. the dow's up 166 near session highs of 183. s&p 500 up for a fifth day in a row. the dow is up fora fifth time in six days. the rally continues, wilfred.

coming up, sara taking a look at the state of the housing market under president trump's tenure and whether it's better on the a buyer or seller over two years. plus, a move in bp. the latest oil and gas name to pop on earnings. we'll break down the results which have sent the stock higher icarndon's sessi stk ou california phones offers free specialized phones... like cordless phones,

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♪ i'm on my way welcome back to "closing bell." most sectors in the green right now. bond prices pushing yields down and hurting financials financials and energy are the losers on the board. technology having another strong day. >> right near the highs of the session are 30 minutes left to trade. here's what's happening at this hour, everybody british prime minister theresa may telling business leaders in belfast that her commitment to no hard border between northern island and island is unshakable. she is seeking support of the stalled withdrawal plan from the european union. >> i'm here today to affirm my

commitment and that of the united kingdom government to all of the people of northern ireland, of every background and tradition. and to affirm my commitment to delivering a brexit that ensures no return to a hard border between northern ireland and ireland which is unshakable. fiat chrysler recalling 660,000 heavy duty trucks worldwides into a nut can cause a loss of steering control and covers ram 1500 trucks and 2500 trucks. hundreds of thousands of fans lining boston's streets to celebrate the new england patriots' latest super bowl win on sunday. its sixth overall and comes four months after that city celebrated the boston red sox winning the world series for the fourth time in 15 years. and they got pretty decent weather for it, too. no polar vortex there.

you are up to date guys, back to you. >> perfect day for a parade. would have been nice here in new york good weather, too. sue, thanks. president trump reportedly set to nominate official david malpass to be the president of the world bank malpass currently serves as undersecretary of the treasury for international affairs and previously he was an economist at bear stearns. and served at the treasury and state departments under president reagan and president h.w. bush. not terrible to appointing a nonglobalist to a global institution but it is controversial and that's because malpass in the current role oversees the imf and world bank and argued against capital increases for the world bank which a lot of people don't know, this is not an extension

of the administration. their mandate focusing on the poorest countries of the world in disasters and education and climate change and these types of issues. david mallpass i know as a trump economics kind of guy and they have 189 members they do have to appoint him. >> right what happens next? >> it's expected that whoever -- the tradition is when they were created imf europeans choose the imf leader and the americans choose world bank. that's under pressure from especially china and india and it's gone through. this could be a critical test. to see if they vote against him or try to put more resources in their own development banks like the asian development bank and has almost 100 members and could be a real competitor to the

institutions in washington and largely controlled by europe and the u.s. and seep if it this one is appointed clearly the treasury probably behind the scenes doing work to lobby do get him in. it's more of a boring pick than a controversial pick but it will be interest dog see how it goes down. >> and in line with what we could have expected from this administration and not with -- >> there were names like nikki haley or others with a lot more international experience i think and more understanding of international coordination malpass -- >> yeah. >> she said she would take it. certainly outside of the trump administration. >> there she is. right. 25 minutes left of trade before the close. near the highs of the day. up 175 the high was 183 all of the major indices in the green. how the housing sector and trade are faring under the trump

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welcome back president trump will deliver his state of the union address diana olick with a look at how the housing sector is performing under president trump. let's start with you. >> reporter: it's all about mortgage rates there's higher rates last year and rates have fallen back and buyers are coming back at a sunday open house in dallas, there was a traffic jam on the main stairway buyers buoyed by a drop of mortgage rates in december. >> interest rates are low. they're on the decline which is great. >> reporter: precisely why sely that and the family opening to get into a home of their own not only are mortgage rates down from a peak in november, but home prices are also pulling

back >> when you see those numbers coming down, oh okay this is the time to buy. >> reporter: now, the trouble is with demand surging back, we have the problem of too few entry level homes for sale back to you guys. >> to what extent is that pullback in home prices linked to the recent peak in interest rates, ie as one improves leading to the other one worsening for buyers soon after? >> reporter: well, the home price pullback was about the afortability calculation with mortgage rates rise, people could not afford the homes if mortgage rates stay low for a while, that could buoy prices but you have the supply issue which could keep prices moving a little bit lower as people get out and in into to the affordable level of house. >> thank you kayla tausche now with the state

of the trade. >> reporter: it was a main campaign pillar and trade will figure prominently in the state of the union last year the president called to replace old and unfair deals with new ones. >> we will work to fix bad trade deals and negotiate new ones and they'll be good ones but they'll be fair. and we will protect american workers and american intellectual property through strong enforcement of our trade rules. >> reporter: so far, the president's made the most progress with allies controversially using tariffs to bring them to the negotiating table. the result minor changes to an older deal with south korea, a deal with europe that's still in the planning stages and could result in more natural gas and soybeans sent to europe and then talks with the united kingdom and japan that are ongoing and a deal with mexico and canada awaiting approval with congress but deals with adversaries are

more elusive, notably china. high-stakes talks continue through this month but the deficit with china keeps growing and that has been one of the president's highest priorities last year, it was $375 billion that was the u.s. deficit in goods and that is significantly higher than the year prior we are still awaiting data for this year but i'm told the president wants to narrow that gap has he wenters campaign season for 2020 and that so focused on getting that part of the china deal done. guys >> i wondered, kayla, the fact that the fed went into pause mode, i mean, if the economy or the market turns south again, the president can't blame jay powell like last time and i wonder if that increases the likelihood to see a deal with china. >> reporter: well, i certainly think that it has given more firepower to the arguments of those like larry kudlow and steven mnuchin in the administration to broker a truce with china for sometime now and i think that it will be

important yet again that question that comes up in politics were you better off than you were four years ago, than two years ago, six years ago that's what voters ask themselves going to the polls in 2020 and the white house is actively thinking about keeping the economy firing on all cylinders and making sure that people can answer, yes, i'm better off when that question is asked. >> kayla, thank you. infrastructure is another sector that president trump is expected to focus on tonight let's bring in gene spelling and stephen moore. gene, this infrastructure idea, this was supposed to be literally the bridge builder between democrats and republicans. do you think at this point it started off so toxic with that record partial government shutdown there's any room for a compromise that we could see infrastructure >> look.

i think when we first started, when president bush was first elected, there was this optimistic view that he would literally and figuratively be the bridge builder you say we have obviously seen that he is governing in a very, very different way so i would expect that tonight when we has the podium, when he's being scripted, that we're going do see a kind of outreach on infrastructure i wouldn't be surprised if he turns back and tries to shake pelosi's hand or do something like this and faces three difficult issues one, trust people don't trust making a deal with him, even republicans are burned on daca, the shutdown appropriations there's very little trust. two, design. democrats are going to want real spending, not loans, public/private partnerships and want as chuck schumer has said a green infrastructure component that deals with climate change that's tough the third issue is fiscal. they have just driven up the

deficit by $2 trillion so democrats are going to want something but people will want it to be more deficit neutral and that's going to lead to the disputes about whether trump is willing to pull back some of his recent tax cut to help pay for infrastructure those are three pretty tough bars to get over. >> stephen, do you agree do you think meaningful spend on infrastructure is as elusive as gene suggests? >> let me start with the last point. i guarantee you there's not a big tax increase or a pullback on the tax cut because we believe it's a phenomenal success. now, i do agree with gene that i think trump will put an olive branch out to speaker pelosi tonight saying let's get something done on this and on immigration. it is going to be kind of an i think kinder and gentler donald trump tonight and see what kind of response that gets from speaker pelosi i think gene is right that

there's a big trust issue here between whether the democrats believe they can trust trump but the other issue is, you know, that when republicans talk about infrastructure and democrats talk about infrastructure, i think gene is right. it is like, you know, republicans are on mars and democrats are on venus we need more roads we need more bridges we need better ports we need the energy infrastructure, the pipelines, the lng terminals. we are number one virtually producer of oil and gas and that's the kind of thing we want gene is right. democrats want, you know, more green energy programs, mass transit. there's an issue of whether they're talking about the same thing. >> since you brought up the tax cut and i imagine we'll hear about that and how successful, i mean, the market obviously liked it, stephen. saying it's been successful, how are you measuring it $4,000 boost that families were supposed to get as a result of the tax cuts, did that happen?

>> well, you know, my mom used to say the proof of the pudding is in the eating we have an incredible economy right now. lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. biggest construction boom going on in american history, ties into talking about infrastructure, my god, the infrastructure going on in america today, every city i go to, denver or nashville or cleveland or san francisco or los angeles or, you know, portland, oregon, to portland, maine, buildings going up, spending by businesses manufacturing is back big time construction is good and what we wanted to see and wages are up so all of those happened, you know, in part as a consequence of the tax cut >> gene, i guess you would disagree. >> yeah. i think you have to do some very creative manufacturing to manufacture a positive spin on this tax cut we now see that it's actually not paying for itself. it could be driving the deficit up by 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion there was a survey saying that

84% of companies say it is not affected the hiring or their investment plans at all. the workers after getting some symbolic increases, bonuses, really seen wages go up maybe 1% while we have seen record stock buybacks i think, in fact, this has actually -- i think the public will see and going into 2020 that this tax cut is seen as a liability and the strength in the numbers that steve mentions are just the continuation of the trend that started under president obama and have at least not been arrested under president trump but you certainly can't say the tax cut has somehow made anything that matters to working families significantly better. >> gene, when you considered the america first message which i guess is expected to continue, do you think it's a centerpiece

in the same way as the past couple of years and resonates in the same way it has done with the base still >> i think it will be -- i think it will be heavily america first. i think you will feel that in immigration, border security, trade. i think he'll call on trade for national, you know, a national security rationale for more trade, protectionism he's been president for two years and obviously going to have to put a more positive spin under what has happened under his watch and not expecting the dark message of the inauguration. >> stephen, even gary cohn that used to work for the president and the architect of the tax plan, one of them, on this program said you are not getting the amount of business spending and investment and capital spending that he would have liked to see under the tax cut because of the trade policies of this administration and the uncertainties of planning. so is the president shooting

himself in the foot with the america first trade policies after giving corporations the massive tax break? >> by the way, gary cohn didn't write the tax plan larry kudlow and i did in the campaign i don't buy gene's argument. almost everything we have done economically since trump came into office to reverse the obama policies and, you know, we got 3% growth and 2018 that's something as you know, gene, in 8 years obama wasn't able to do and forecasting we'd get 4%. something big is happening in the economy. there's a difference of a recovery and an economic boom and we are in one of those right now. now, the thing to disrupt this economic boom, the thing that's keeping me up at night is whether he can get this trade deal done with china i think he's almost staked the president sir presidency on getting this done. if they make reasonable concessions, china's a bad actor

on the international scene right now and so many ways and steal, they're engaged in industrial espionage right now. i could go down the gambit if china makes concessions, i think the economy's going to go through the roof and see dow 30,000 and can't get that deal down then you could see that 25% tariff to do real damage to the u.s. economy and china's economy. >> gene, 20 seconds, quick final word. >> i think that donald trump does seem like he's hungering for a deal and china can see that i think there's a very good chance he'll do that because he is so worried about what's happening to the economy but my guess is it's not going to be what was envisioned in the type of structural, tough enforcement on technology transfers. my guess is it's going to be something he can brag about and he's decided that's where he wants to go and i think that

chinese negotiators can hear that all the way from washington, d.c. >> all right good two sides of the economic state of our union ahead of tonight. thank you both for weighing in. >> thank you. >> thank you. shares of ralph lauren soaring after reporting earnings this morning the key thing that pushed sales beyond eectis nt.xptaonisex lies beyond the tech sector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens to identify long-term winners. from energy... to real estate... to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in that pursuit. pgim: the global investment management businesses of prudential.

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welcome back to "closing bell." we're in the middle of earnings season shares of ralph lauren having a good day soaring after reporting a strong holiday quarter beating estimates on the top and bottom lines raising the full-year sales guidance and not seeing the slowdown in asia with ralph lauren reporting revenue in greater china jumped 19% year over year and growing from the smaller base and still the ceo said he didn't see much of an impact of the trade war or slowdown in china. >> the stock up 9% i'm watching shares of british petroleum bp trading higher after reporting earnings that surprised. best full-year numbers for seven years and 6.3 billion 26% ahead of expectations that surprised,

really showing the affects of the cost cutting that's coming through in the last couple of years. 6% dividend yield. shell and bp trading better valuation than the chevrons and exxons of this year. 6% yield of -- >> even the american giants with better results, too. >> for sure. up next, back with the closing countdown. we have five minutes left to trade. snap will report earnings, the stock down 50% over the last year could this be the report that 'ldiusth cround? wel scs atoming up what do advisors look for in an etf? i tell clients, etfs can follow an index, but which ones target your goals? it's not about quantity. it's about quality. no trendy stuff. i want etfs backed by research. is it built for the long-term? my reputation depends on it. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives.

so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

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technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. welcome back to the "closing bell." we have got just under two minutes left of trade. there's the s&p 500 intraday we have come back a tiny bit as we approach the close. quite a nice intraday turn around since lunchtime and just going to show you google which reported results last night traded lower last night and this morning and it's had a good intraday turn around and no doubt helped the market, too

it will close higher sectors today, tech and the likes of apple and microsoft doing well towards the top and it's consumer discretionary at the top. the dollar quickly, as well. higher but more because the sterling and euro slip and finally, half screen of the all four indices to show you bringing in bob pisani decent turn around in the afternoon. the high on the dow 180 or so. >> we moved at 2:00 when the market close numbers came out. the final buying orders for people in mutual orders. $2 million to buy at the close that's higher than normal. every day we get higher. advance/decline line terrific. more advancing than declining stocks every day not a lot of new highs but the vix at 15 and collapsed.

right near the 200-day moving average. 2741 the 200-day moving average and get over that by another spurt. >> great stuff thank you very much. we have up 166 points on the dow. 0.6% s&p sara, back to you. ♪ the rally rolls on here. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm sara eisen wilfred frost rejoining me in a moment with mike santoli let's look at how we finish up the day on wall street the dow going out with a gain of 170 points more than .6%. the s&p 500 up about a half a percent. groups lower financials, health care and staples consumer discretionary, communication services, technology led the charge up

naz d-back outperforming all day. the russell 2000 index lagged closing up .2% fifth day in a row for gains for the s&p 500. that post-christmas eve comeback koptds for the markets investors setter for a trio ofg earnings we'll bring you the numbers when they're released joining us is sarat sarephi. mike, overall the drift higher continues. >> yeah. it is like don't call it a melt up that was the curse last year the broad market up about a third of a percent looking at the average stock, s&p up half a percent like you said. i think the pattern of volatility and funds seeing it to be somewhat more safe to raise exposure something behind this pattern we have seen of a

little bit of strength in the market day and fang leading today. if you look at the proxies. >> google up. >> played along with that. so the question now as the market had a 16%, 17% rally at the down trend line is it 2017 when basically a market like this would stay overbought and just kind of drift higher and then rest? or is it last year when you kind of wanted to sell the big rallies? i don't know that we know that yet and feeling in the last couple of weeks as if it's a much more kind of stable tape that's rotating from strength to weakness when it can. >> do you agree? >> i do agree and i think a fear i have is everything is now going in the right way there are no more head winds right now. right? the market pricing in a perfect china scenario the fed on pause a nice dinner last night and i think you will see bumps along the road and for those people who got out of the market last year, this is hard to come back

and trying to crawl back and at the same time i think we are trying to digest to see is this slower growth or longer or just kind of a run-up and then sell off again? >> are you on the sidelines? >> no. putting money to work and the areas that are value based and not chasing momentum for a good run. so industrial companies, like the honeywells of the world, select financials that i think are still cheap and good opportunity to go longer here. >> mike, in terms of you mentioned the positives like volatility lower and consistency and decent sector performance, what about credit? >> credit has played right along. high yield spreads continue to come in today so everything seems to be in tune at least in the realm of getting back more than half of the losses and looking at the readings technically on a short-term bases things are overbought and the stocks well above the recent

trend and what that means and sentiment. you have to make sure you don't have a sense of complacency setting in the treasury yields haven't budged and not saying anything about the economic environment not as bad as december looked or as great as people assume in terms of u.s. growth so the question is there an argument of the different asset classes or lukewarm >> the pause eases so much pain. i think it shows you that -- >> psychologically at least. >> the bias of more tightening behind a lot of pent of hup anxiety. i think trump was right. you might not agree with the tactics but the fed is in patient mode and a source of pain for the market. >> and the sectors that were really getting hurt, home construction, autos, were really discounting a pretty deep slowdown and i think those are some back, as well corporations feeling healthier

given that rates might not be that much higher down the road. >> what do you make of the intraday turn around in alphabet and what that says for broader sentiment towards the big tech stocks >> as mike said, sentiment is turning positive you can have bad news and like apple did and google did some of these stocks coming out with negative earnings coming out of a positive. google did that quickly. other stocks took a couple days before they coming but the market telling you there's a positive bias here for people to own stocks and thinking that things get better. >> are you a buyer of alphabet >> we are. so google is one of the top holdings, facebook is a holding. those are strong cash flow companies. google spending $6 billion in r&d and not just cutting back and buying back shares and giving money out but trying to invest in the future and i like companies trying to do that. it's where do we want to be two, three years from now

>> we have our first earnings report of the afternoon. it is on electronic arts josh lipton with the numbers. >> wilf, reporting eps of 86 cents. not immediately clear whether it compares to what the street was looking for. adjusted revenue of 1.61 billion. the street at 1.75 billion looking at a q4 gap eps of 56 cents. again not clear if that's comparable to the buck 58 the street forecast. but light q1 net bookings guide, as well. just looking through the net revenue by composition here, full game downloads, coming at 247 million. live services at 480 million and mobile at 181 million. conference's call at 5:00 p.m. eastern. we'll be on it. >> thank you for that. big miss as you say. meantime we have disney out. julia boorstin with the numbers. >> wilf, disney beating expectations on the top and

bottom line. revenues at 1.53 billion adjusted earnings also beating estimates coming at 1.84 dlrs per share. analysts expecting $1.55 per share. you see disney trading up 1.3% on that news digging into the different divisions here, there's interest in the media networks division and operating income increased by 7%. if you look at what's driving that upside surprise particularly in the earnings disney's earnings it is outperformance versus expectations in every single one of these divisions now media networks with espn always in focus here it looks like outperformance in terms of operating income in broadcasting as well as in the cable division cable division operating income of 743 million versus wall street expectations of 688 million.

broadcasting revenue 408 million versus 277 expected. they attribute this to affiliate revenue growth, increased ad revenue and program sales offset by higher costs. espn did see a decrease as expected due to higher programming costs offset by an increase in ad revenue this is the first quarter that disney is releasing its earnings with a direct to consumer and international division broken out and they announced it and analysts given some numbers about what to expect in terms of how it would have impacted past earnings so this is the first quarter we are getting the new division and this, of course, impacted by disney plus as well as espn plus which launched last year international -- direct to consumer and international had an operating loss of 136 million in the quarter back over to you. >> looks like that one was affected by big foreign exchange

hit. julia, thank you mike, looking pretty strong across the board. >> pretty strong, yeah parks in particular was an upside surprise, as well 10% per year over year in operating income for the parks division and one that julia didn't mention and i think basically a good quarter i don't think there's a ton of surprises in here. i think that the focus is going to be on, okay, now we know the baseline for the sort of starting point net loss for direct to consumer and all the rest of it and i think the big story is characterizing that rollout and what's going to be including, pricing expectations for uptake. >> parks and resorts, probably most of the revenue beat nonetheless, decent numbers throughout how impressive to change the narrative here and not talking about cord cutting an affecting espn and the other opportunities that they're seemingly delivering on? >> absolutely. this is a stock we have been

adding to trading at 15 times earnings, reasonable for a company like disney and multi-faceted approach you have the hard assets but the content is really driving this company now and i think when you have got a baseline where espn is not hurting and you have got streaming coming on and you have got what i think we'll be focus on is what is the growth rate of the streaming and fall into the bottom line along with the hulu investment th investment that's the catalyst for a couple of years. >> saying it in the first quarter. bob iger you can tell building a robust direct to consumer business is top priority and invest in exceptional content and innovative technology. they have changed the story here. >> without a doubt between the purchase of the fox assets and this rollout it's really all about exactly how quickly the disney branded direct to consumer can become right up there at the top of the menu with netflix and amazon

prime in terms of the sort of default choices for entertainment. >> can they make that immediately profitable in the way that netflix and amazon prime is not >> they have a couple of levers to pull. what's interesting is boast some of the content is home grown and don't have to spend on marvel and "star wars" that they own and the levers are live entertainment and where you're competing and the combination is a powerful tool to have in your arsenal and that can drive earnings going forward. >> all right yulia on double duty for us with an earnings alert now on snap. how does it look, julia? >> snap also beating expectations on the top and bottom line. we see that stock shooting higher in after hours trading. reporting revenue of $390 million versus estimates of $378 million. earnings better than expected, adjusted loss of 4 cents per

share. analysts looking for loss of 7 cents per share and the stock up 10% on this news other key statistics here, daily active users, a number analysts expected to decline by 2 million. decline sequentially the number is flat at 186 million. versus 184 million that was expected so stronger daily active users than expected showing that they're stabilizing user engagement also i really want to highlight in daily -- average revenue per user number, a key metric for the social media companies the company reporting average revenue of $2.09 that's better than $2.05 wall street expected and a big jump higher from the $1.60 we saw in q3 in terms of average revenue per user they have rolling out the android application to a small percentage of the community and

substantially closer to profitability as thach maintained a relatively flat cost structure so far better than expected results here certainly reassuring to investors that that daily active user number stabilize while we expected it to decline now up nearly 12% back to you. >> julia, thank you very much for that mike, on that point of the daily act ifr users in q3, fell 2 million. and then forecast to fall another 2 million and stabilize. that's an a big explainer for the share price eight nright no. the company's retaining relevance of consumers and the beat on average revenue per user doesn't hurt either. >> we have more from julia on the guidance going forward, as well. >> yeah. so the company does give a q1 outlook for revenue and adjusted earnings saying that guidance for the adjusted earnings which is still going to be a loss, projecting loss of 165 million

and 148 million compared to loss of 218 million in the year earlier quarter that is on better than expected, better than the analyst range revenue is i believe a little bit lower than expected projecting revenue of 285 and 310 million. that is, of course, down from the revenue this quarter largely because q4 is always the biggest quarter for advertising for these companies. stock up now over 16% on the beat and the daily active user number. >> again thank you very much sarat, the $1.60 last quarter and expected to climb to just above $2 it did they have levers to pull and a space to grow into. >> right i think the positive out of this was people were expecting facebook to kind of just take over the whole market. now we have got another player that can also increase same time and tells you that the market is still bigger than what we expect

it to be and the potential to grow i think it's still hard for them because they're coming from a small size but i think that could happen in the future. >> this is interesting we have reached over 70% of the total 13 to 30-year-olds on a monthly basis. >> 70% of that cohort. >> touting that younger demographic and that they have scale and they have reach. they go on to talk about some of their mobile, made for mobile video experiences, "dead girls detective agency" on trying to stabilize users. >> an point td monetize it like facebook that's how this stock really moves up. >> important to look at a longer term chart with this move right here never traded below 840 until october or september of last year so in other words it created this very like deep and low base. >> i can't believe that statistic. 70% r. you in the 70%?

>> i have snapchat and not used it. >> not hit by one of those ads >> no. i'm not at the very top of that age range. >> surprising given the attractiveness of the target. >> sorry do they have a cfo yet >> i don't know. >> they have to update. >> key thing on the call for sure. >> i think people looking for because in tells of handling on the guidance but whether speiegl takes control. is this a one quarter stabilization in the daus or not? >> and short covering move and something to build on itself because, you know, this was supposed to be coming public a hyper growth story and grow into the valuation and incremental improvement and see if that's enough. >> do you own snap >> we don't. we own facebook and rather have a player with a stronger balance

sheet. snap might have a problem with capital. >> they have to change the narrative from instagram stories taking the users and the attention. >> exactly. >> okay. sarat, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. up next, you will hear from a disney bull about why he's very optimistic about the outlook for the box office and theme park growth right now. as president trump prepares to deliver is trump tonight, we'll dlaew we'll debate whether the economy is starting to show signs of a slowdown

shares of disney trading higher about 1.5% after hours after reporting an earnings beat moments ago. >> joining us to discuss, jim stewart from "the new york times" and ivan fineseth very good afternoon to you both. ivan, start with you in terms of the numbers itself what do you make of them and justifiable move in the stock price? >> oh yeah disney is turning a corner and this is going to be disney's year. >> what in the numbers in particular makes you confident of that? >> espn is picking up. the cable business is picking up the studio had a blockbuster year and they have ten

blockbuster movies in the pine li pipeline for this year three of them are probably going to be $2 billion movies. >> looking for criticism, a decent part of the revenue beat did come on the parks line is that something that worries you at all relative to the rest of the business? >> no. the parks are doing well disney dominates the action adventure movie genre with the halo affect of merchandise and the parks. >> jim, i mean, you know the history of disney better than anyone is this disney's year? >> i don't know i go quite that far. i think it takes more than one year to know if they make a historic transformation. but i mean, these earnings are impressive and an impressive company. look at the theme parks for a moment when i was wokking rking on my i

portrayed a character of goofy and you see a cross-section of america at the theme parks and when consumer confidence is high, when employment is high, when earnings are finally showing a gain what do families want to do even not very affluent ones? take the kids to disney. >> win the super bowl you go there. tom brady. >> more about captain marvel than goofy >> i don't think i or goofy were luring many people to disney but it's really -- i think it is impressive they had kind of weak results in asia and europe. this is u.s. driven. the rest of the world starts doing better this kicks in, as well they had a momentarily slow year but they're not losing steam and i think the outlook is bright and another thing that's impressive is the cable model is not falling apart. espn, there's a little decline

in subscribers didn't say exactly how much. revenues are up. higher fees. advertising market is very strong and one other ash ration, the hot political advertising for the political season and that's 2020 to be another big election. >> yeah. the market isn't exactly paying for abc buying disney right now so that's not necessarily the big issue and it is a good test. ivan, when netflix came along, the popular way to set it up was to say it's netflix against cable and seemed a bit false disney within the same company is trying to prove that these models can coexist. >> i believe they can. it is changing and i think disney will out-net flex netflix. >> why >> because of content. netflix has to invest in original content to keep up. it is disney business of creating original content for both movies, cable and the

direct to consumer model >> do you fear, ivan, there will be a hit to profitability whilst disney plus launches to out netflix netflix as you put it? >> i think disney, nobody markets better than disney imagine coupons to people buying merchandise for free trials or discounts on disney plus they're a powerful marketing company and they have content is king and they are the king of content. >> netflix is also doing really well on content, jim is there room for both if so how much room is there who else is at the top in term of streamers >> i think absolutely there's room for both, a few more. i don't think anybody knows the answer exactly how many of these sort of separate over the top networks people are going to want on their tv sets, in the living rooms and two, three, four no question about that

i'd be surprised if disney isn't one of those it's everybody else with trouble getting over that mode. >> do you think that's also bob iger's tactic or try to blow netflix out of the water >> i don't know why he wouldn't be happy to coexist. he doesn't need to blow them out of the water it's not like we have had one tv network all of these years people want a choice they have a choice and ought to be able to have a choice they can coexist very nicely i think the question more would be is netflix trying to take them on and say the sports arena? which would be very, very expensive. >> or even in kids. >> exactly. >> i think that the way it is a little bit continuous with disney's existing strategy and an advantage is that you know what a disney film is. you know what the character sets are. you know what marvel is and a built-in understanding of the franchise. what's a netflix original? is it kind of a brand attached

to it? no you don't know it's dumped in netflix and blends in with everything else. >> costs a lot of money. >> and a new promo - >> as a consumer you don't necessarily pick it out as saying this is a netflix production. >> very good point guys, we have to leave it there. thank you very much. very good discussion there on disney which is trading up after hours. up next, we'll break down the charts to see whether an increase in a key policy index could be a red flag for the market. a top cable executive said netflix is exaggerating its viewership data. well'll fill you in.

welcome back uncertainty about economic policy is at a multi-year high how will the state of the union address affect this? michael santoli with more. looking at policy uncertainty. >> yes the economic policy uncertainty index. this is an attempt by some academic economists to quantify just exactly how much uncertainty there is out there about the future of economic policy obviously. so right here, by the way, that is reading for december. only a monthly and it's computed in a few different ways. one is just strictly news report mentions of a fiscal policy context. so you have uncertainty of the fed and of course government shutdown and the u.s. didn't have a budget and expiring tax

provisions and disagreement of economic forecast earls so if there's a wide divergence of the global economy they consider it higher economic uncertainty. what's interesting about the timing of this is with the high readings, like for example, this would have been in 2012-ish when you had the downgrade of the u.s. debt, you also had that fiscal cliff you didn't have a budget for a long time. this was right here. the stock market actually went right up during that period right after that so as you have the release of uncertainty, this is donald trump's inauguration and the way i read it is there's lots of uncertainty out there. acknowledging it and basically right at the surface, everyone focused on it, that's when risk somewhat come out of the market so we'll see what happens next month. see if it's resolved and interesting that we are so fixated on the theme. >> it's interest how much

uncertainty improved in 2017 in the middle of the president's tenure and peaked recently and around brexit and the election but it's a very stark difference in between in the middle of the time. >> it is now, of course, getting the tax bill through even anticipation of the tax bill uncertain and not necessarily a negative you're right we have a period of stable policy and predictable policy from the fed and fiscal authorities in that stretch. >> thank you, mike, as always. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> hello, earn a pennsylvania appeal court denies a request for a new sandusky trial the former penn state assistant football coach sentenced in 2012 to 30 to 60 years in state prison. the oscar ceremony will not have an official host this year. abc tv entertainment president

burk telling that to reporters today. the february 24th show will instead highlight the celebrities to present the awards. skier lindsay vonn crashing this morning out of the super-g. hit a gate and careened sideways and skied down the course to cheers from the crowd and her final race on sunday will be her very last. >> it is what it is. i can't change it. i have done my best my career and worked as hard as humanly possible and came back from way too many injuries and i'm not able to do it and that's just life not everyone can be tom brady and keep winning the super bowl like for the millionth time. you know i think 82 wins is something to be proud of. >> it sure is. that's the news update this hour guys, back downtown to you. >> it is good to see her smiling and making it down the slopes in one piece. >> could have been awful. >> see her taking a funny jab at

tom brady. sue, thank you. >> there's a lot of that going around given the game on sunday. >> indeed. >> back to you guys. we have a news alert on a couple of after hour movers. shutterfly and here's seema. >> the stock up -- down 11%, excuse me. the ceo is stepping down 2019 and announcing the board of directors formed a strategic review committee to evaluate the capital structure and shutterfly was approached about an acquisition. again, the stock is down right now and it is down about 50% in the last 6 months. let's pivot to sea world the ceo effective february 18th and antorcha was with carnival

cruise line. shares basically down fractionally after hours sara >> all right seema, thank you. up next on the show, we'll hear from a top tech analyst on whether snap's earnings will be enough to have him change the hold rating on the stock really stem the tide for this one soaring 16.5% after hours. and then the state of the economy under president trump preparing to give the state of the union address tonight. what do you look for when you trade? i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums.

yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪

breaking news on apple josh >> yeah, sara. big news at apple after five years leading the company's retail and online stores, the company is just now announcing that angela ahrendts will depart in april deirdre o'brien will step in here take on an expanded role of retail and people and reporting to ceo tim cook.

ahrendts saying five years have been challenging and stimulating and fulfilling of my career, a big job, guys. apple with more than 500 stores around the world online stores and retail employees. but again planning to depart apple in april guys, back to you. >> josh, this is one of tim cook's roughly speaking how many direct reports >> only a handful, wilf. >> i mean, she was a high profile hire she came from leading the ceo, she was a ceo of burberry. what has she done? >> she played a key role of redefining the experience. going to apple stores now, a big part is not just going in and buying a hardware. what angela tried to do is reimagined what you experience

going into the stores and now you go to lectures, workshops, lessons but a big job. i was there opening the store in chicago. we interviewed her then and talked about how big role her was there and also was on stage when they had big product announcements, often taking the stage. retail a big part of the operation and a point of contact with apple products to go into the stores, meet employees, test drive gadgets. a big change for apple. >> any word on where she is going? i would think that, you know, there's a lack of leadership in retail and would be highly desirable. >> doesn't say that. only it says that retail -- she says in the release is never stronger on better positioned and as the release says here only that she is pursuing new personal and professional pursuits and perhaps learning where she'll land in the coming

days. >> thank you. also jon fortt covering apple for a long time. the retail job always high profile one. >> yeah. >> ron johnson, right? >> yeah. >> jon, how they reimagined the idea of retail around the products talk a little bit about the significance of this. >> well, it is hugely significant because angela ahrendts stepped into the job five years ago when tim cook stepped in it in a bad way he hired a guy from over in the uk and john brown did not work for apple. at this point, more than half of apple employees work in retail so this job overseeing apple's retail operation is hugely important because not only are you overseeing most of the people at apple and interact most directly with customers, but also dealing with the working class, just in the trenches apple workers and all of the really complicated issues

that go along with that. like, security checks coming into stores. things like that morale issues entirely different of what apple traditionally was used to dealing with angela would get on conference calls and work on morale issues and expanding including into china. that is tough job and she really transformed it tim cook was able to save a decision that he made he regretted on that retail chief job and bring in somebody of her caliber. now, that said, o'brien has been with apple for a long time and well respected and there is a succession plan, obviously, and they have stated what that is but if you look at the challenges that apple has had over five years, retail was one of the absolute biggest and the star of apple figuring that out is angela ahrendts.

>> as the company continues to grow and evolve does the structure of the stores have to change once again? is that something perhaps that will be top of the list for deirdre o'brien or will the stores decline in number >> i don't think them to decline. i think stores continue to be front and center they have been continuously transforming they're different from when they first came out and focused on individual little pods or stations where you would learn about the ipod and get to try it out or the mac and much more experiential the stores were actual cashiers to check you out and evolved to be more you roam around the store and any individual employee can check you out they have also become more into teaching people how to use apple devices, software, services. they have become a place where not only do they sell you something but they help you to use it in a way that makes you

feel part of a community, that's the goal, that educates you and really tries to immerse you in that ecosystem as far as living out this services vision that apple's talking about on conference calls, the stores are the place it comes the life. >> yeah. i go for the genius bar appointments when things go wrong. >> i don't care. if you want to be, you know, get great service at the store, you want to have apple care, for example. a lot of people do and that is one of the ways that the service strategy comes front and center in retail. >> thank you for the perspective on this apple news. we want to hit shares of snap soaring after hours after topping street estimates for more we are joined by brent thill. better user numbers. brent, is it enough to stop the bleeding on this one >> they're not totally out of the woods. a core of the flow was short so it's not surprising to see it move like this given how investors have been positioned

short the stock into the print but clearly, there's been an exodus of employees. the cfo on the way out and questions around the culture and where they're headed clearly facebook is doing phenomenally well against snap but as i ask teenagers the questions about what they're using they're using this product but they mainly use it for messages, not to be influenced by brands and advertising. so we think that there's an opportunity. >> brent -- sorry. >> yes there's an opportunity but i wouldn't call them totally out of the woods and more short covering what we saw on the trading desk is clients covering their shorts rather than buying the stock outright at this level. >> brent, what do you think about the cfo departure and is that a key thing to hear more about on the earnings call >> yeah. i mean, it is a blow tim came from amazon there for almost decades and, you know, it is a blow when you have someone come in you had enron leave.

multiple executives left below that multiple bounce backs on our e-mail list to snap employees so i think one of the things that evan needs to address is the retention of key execs because they effectively are a revolving door of talents. the results are way better than expected even guidance for first quarter was ahead of where the street's at and the core metrics look good and a deeper issue underneath the surface, way bigger to be addressed on the call or going forward. >> we'll see what we learn on the call brent, thank you for your first take on snap. >> thank you. up next, two top economists debate the state of the economy ahead of president trump's state of the union address building a better bank

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and savings and checking accounts with no fees or minimums. because that's how it should be. you can open one from right here or anywhere in 5 minutes. seriously, 5 minutes... this is banking reimagined. what's in your wallet? tonight president trump will deliver his state of the union address. courtney reagan is looking at how retail and consumer spending is faring in the trump administration courtney >> hi, sara. it's possible that consumer can be strong but that doesn't mean it will benefit retail uniformly. wages are rising, the stock market is rebounded and the government is open for now mastercard spendingpulse said 2019 is off to a solid start across retail with growth comparable to december today the national retail federation put out the 2019 forecast for retail sales to grow between 3.8% and 4.4% following 2018's estimated 4.6%

growth and the latest consumer sentiment reading hit the lowest since trump was elected, an economist running the survey blames the extended shutdown and the fear to continue again on february 15 noting that while consumers are optimistic about the financial prospects but not as positive on the future. retail ceos less optimistic than in the broader consumer industry and less than global and poised to do better and caution on the higher end sara >> courtney, good perspective on state of the consumer. let's discuss what to expect tonight and the state of the u.s. economy with jason fuhrman and also with us doug hultaken

so i'll ask you both, jason, starting with you, how would you characterize the state of the economy? >> confusing jobs numbers are incredibly strong and picking up. but gdp numbers numbers are get slower by the quarter and there's a lot of peril around the world. my best guess is that we're slowing a decent amount, but more towards our potential than falling below that but it's a confusing moment right now with different indicators in different ways. >> doug, how would you character it >> i'd agree to a great extent i think we are slowing, but you would expect the economy to slow back toward its potential. i think there's excessive pessimism about the possibility of recession 70% of growth comes out of the household sector personal consumption expenditures have been very solid. they have ranged between 2.4% and 2.9% for three years now you can't get a recession until the household sector goes south.

i think courtney's report is one that says it's not so the near term looks good, but there are some headwinds i think there are issues in trade policy and immigration policy, in the budget that have to be dealt with the question is will they in 2020 and beyond. >> jason, is the outlook, though, less confusing than you would have thought it when your old boss left the white house? >> you know, the biggest problem we had then is still the biggest problem we have now, which is slow productivity growth so we've -- job market has gone further than i think most people would have expected with a lot more people coming off the sidelines than i really thought were necessarily there but that can't keep happening forever. and so the big question is will we unlock productivity growth. i think to doug's point if we make bad mistakes on trade and immigration, we're going to be doing the opposite of unlocking productivity growth. we're going to guarantee low

growth going forward. >> doug, just in terms of what fiscal policies remain in play right now, it almost seems as if with the tax law in place for over a year right now, now we have split government, is there even much of an economic agenda that investors, consumers are fixated on right now aside from just removing those overhangs of the trade frictions? >> i don't see a big fiscal policy agenda. you don't hear talk about finishing the job on tax reform. there are still some things that can be done. you hear zero talk about taking on the spending side of the budget so in terms of the kind of things that the congress and the administration are going to do this year, i think two jump out. one, there will have to be an increase or suspension of the debt limit hopefully that's done in an expeditious fashion with as little to do as possible we've seen that movie before, we don't need it. secondly, by the end of the year they have to have an agreement on the spending caps

in the absence of the agreement there's a big cut in spending that's half a percentage of gdp. that's a self-inflicted wound no one needs, so those are the two i'm watching. >> jason, it sounds line taxes will be the key issue. we'll listen for it tonight, but heading into 2020, already your party want to go after the rich when it comes to taxes president trump touting his corporate tax and all sorts of tax cuts for americans where do you think this is going to land? what makes the most sense economically >> look, i don't think we're going to have a lot of tax legislation in the next two years but we'll have an important debate one is what the level of revenue is right now, in the 16% of gdp range which is incredibly low. we need more revenue second, i'd try to get additional revenue in as efficient a way as possible. i think we could have bigger expensing for the business sector which will help investment at the same time we bring corporate rates up a little bit the whole democratic party does

think high income households can afford to pay more taxes we can debate the best way to go about that, but i think that's one part of an overall economic strategy and one i think makes sense. >> jason and doug, we'll have to leave it there, unfortunately. very good conversation. >> next time let's debate the best way to do that. you guys are both experts on this. disney's earnings call is under way and comments appear to be moving the stock lower. julia boorstin has the details hi, julia. >> hi, wilf. ceo bob iger has focused his comments on the direct-to-consumer streaming business he announced 2 million subscribers to espn plus it was comments from the cfo that seemed to be impacting the stock, now up just 1%. the company warning that tough comparisons for the studio will continue in its fiscal second quarter and that the studio will report an estimated $450 to $500 million less in revenue than the year ago quarter, which is the

second best in company's history. i'll jump back on the call because they are continuing to talk streaming now back over to you. >> julia, thank you very much for that julia boorstin focusing on disney, but still up a percent, mike just a small pullback. >> no big surprise the studio results are lumpy and this fiscal quarter was very strong i'm seeing some headlines that they are going to withhold captain marvel from the licensing deal so they're starting to get a little more detailed about what exactly their strategy is about keeping exclusive rights to some content. shares of snap spiked on earnings, up some 15%, 16% as we speak -- 19% we will check in on that name and the other after-hours movers coming up. make sure to tune into "power lunch" tomorrow 2:30 eastern to catch steve liesman rm an exclusive interview with foer federal reserve chair, janet yellen lies beyond the tech sector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪

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let's check in on some of the headlines making news after hours. disney ticking higher after beating on both the top and bottom line. ceo bob iger saying that building a robust direct-to-consumer business is the top priority that call is going on. the stock is up but off the

highs. snap shares surging after reporting better-than-expected revenue and a smaller loss than expected daily active users coming in also ahead of estimates. electronic arts moving the other way, sinking after revenue missed estimates it's down 12%. apple announcing a new vp of retail who will take over from angela earnhart so down fractionally no real move in the stock price there. mike, clearly disney is the main one to focus on. this is a decent beat across all lines. nothing really to complain about isn't >> no, not at all. the stock has been in a wide range from 90 to 120 for four years. it's trading right along with the market, so not a big one, more incremental, i guess, news on exactly how they're going to treat this new business. >> my final thought, we've been debating all show long about the economy, the state of the economy under president trump

ahead of the state of the union. the markets, since the inauguration, the s&p 500 is up 20%. since election day it's up 27% so he still does have that to show. >> which is in line with the historical returns of the u.s. stock market, 10% a year. >> but the dollar is down, which is another interesting -- >> guys, thanks for watching. >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," disney jumping after a big earnings beat as the call gets under way. tivo ceo tom rogers will weigh in on the move and he has a few words for ceo bob iger. stocks on a slow grind higher the dow rallying 170 points to its highest level in two months. this as the s&p 500 closes just pennies beneath its