great management team, they're going to turn pinnacle. >> fliuor. kelly evans and "the exchange" begins right now >> here's what's ahead from this hour, markets are rallying as the president made hi first comments from the shutdown deal. he says he's not happy we'll have more. from hike to patient to cut, will recent economic data include some really strong jobs reportwe're hovering near the

session highs, up 1.3%, the nasdaq also unby a similar percentage if you take a look at one of the big trades in the commodity side of things you can see up 2% incrementally about a u.s./china trade deal, and of course a possible deal, those things are hard in play, remember, this has been a steep drop followed by a 250% in gain in crude prices since the lows in december the best performing stock, ke y kelly, is coty, the cosmetics maker has received a tenderer off from j.a.b. holdings to up their stake from already a 40%, to nearly a 60% stake. as you can see here, maybe we'll

see if this one gets more scrutiny from shareholders back over to you. >> that's you, dominic welcome to "the exchange some other positive seema mody is down at the new york stock exchange, with a look at this rally. >> kelly, there are two deals, a deal to avert a shutdown and deal that puts an end to the u.s./china trade dispute we went back and looked at prior u.s./china dialogues to g-20 in december of 2018 to get a sense of how stocks trade before and after these meetings what we found is stocks tends to move higher when frayed talks commence more often than not, those

fade -- whether it will lead to structural change. in the run-up to the high-level meetings, stocks are higher across the board, and china exposed names like caterpillar and deere are trading to the up site >> that's the focus, it's also about those trade talks with china. >> yeah, absolutely. especially a number of these multinationals, globally centric companies. many have referenced the trade dispute as a headwind. it could potentially have an impact on their bottom line? >> seema, thank you. let's get more on the shutdown now, in washington where the president just wrapped up a meeting with members of his cabinet and made headlines eamon has the latest. >> reporter: you're talking about that china deal. remember the deadline is march 1st, that's a self-imposed deadline by this administration,

in which they say they'll raise tariffs in which they don't h e have. >> here's what he said. >> the 10% or 200 billion generally speak, i'm not inclined to do that. >> so, kellie, the president there signaling if they're close to a deal,on the cusp of a

significant trade deal, which hasn't been done in previous administrations. >> eamon, we're being to talk more about this with ylan, but the president also didn't say he would veto the deal. >> reporter: i've been talking inside the west win with a senior administration official this administration telling me, look, nobody has seen this deal yet, sean hannity has seen the deal. >> yeah, market is still reading it positively. thank you, eamon. let's head over to capitol

hill, ylan mui, where the focus on the president and his ability to get this across the finish line. >> reporter: thank you, kellie i think you're seeing leadership trying to sell the parameters to trump. and now they have agreed to $1.375 billion in fill barriers. that's not what the president had requested, but it's more than zero, which is what initially the democrats had offered. now they're backing away from the demand to cap the number of immigration detention beds for those who have been detained inside the u.s now there's an overall cap on the number of beds that will phase down over the coming years. you're also hearing from moderate senators like susan collins, who are calling on the president to make sure he signs the deal the question is, what is the next step? we're hoping to see some legislative text on wednesday.

after that, both the house and senate will have to vote to pass it it's likely some of the procedural rules, at least in the house, will have to get waived in order to get this done there's time to get this done and agreed to. everyone just has to come together and make it happen. >> we also have big news this morning. senator rubio coming out basically against buybacks. >> reporter: that's right. senator rubio is taking on the messaging that democrats have used against corporate buybacks. he called them not a productive use of capital how he wants to do this is very different from the way the democrats are attacking buybacks he wants to essential turn share repurchases to be treated the same way as dividends. right now any -- are treated basically as capitals gains. in his proposal, he would treat them as dividends. instead, unclean if they would be tacked at the rate of un -- that's something to be

determined down the road he does say that fundamentally he wants to eliminate the incentive for corporations to engage in this type of behavior, and that overall he wants to use any revenue from this shift to be used to fund full expensing, making that permanent, when they say is a big growth driver in the economy. >> thank you for the great reporting, ylan mui. can investors trust the hold, and what do they think about the proposal john, let's just start on the shutdown there's plenty of skepticism, but markets are looking positively at these talks. >> think the marks are correct you have a president at this moment trying to gauge how bad the reaction will be on the right. he's gotten some negative commentary from people like sean hannity and ann coulter, laura ingraham, but i think that

having gotten a third-degree purpose for himself and his party, he does not want to go there again. i expect you'll see the president to accept this deal, and then as he signaled in that q&a with reporters a few minutes ago, he's going to try to scrounge for more money that he can try to repurpose but there's no question this is a backdown from the president. he's not -- he's getting some wall fencing, but it's the kind of fencing that had been built for years before he came into office he's not getting the concrete wall >> do you like it, mattie? >> i haven't seen it exactly yet. but which chamber goes first, and how high the margin is by which it happens

now remember, too, we heard a lot from mick mulvaney, repurposing other monies to accomplish this building of the wall that i think will also be very important to watch it's been suggested that make the path forward was for the republicans and the senate, more the democrats in the house, what do you think about that? >> well, republicans in the senate, by striking this deal, richard shelby, and by mitch mcconnell saying he's going to put it on the floor and have the senate act on it, they're essential dollars a bit of independence from the president. you know, mitch mcconnell during the negotiations, that the president is going to sign he's not waiting now mitch mcconnell has been

consistently against it. president trump will have to deal with the embarrassment, i think republicans are going forward, then as allyian right now. what about the politics of this? to piggyback on an op-ed and say i want to do something about this >> listen, you hear ylan talk about how rubio is adopting the democrats' talking points on this i think it's a foolhardy approach for any republican to take, one, because it goes back on the actual reality of the economics bev seen in play

a we've seen wages increase for the first time at a pace we probably haven't seen in 14 years and those are accrues to workers at the lower end of the spectrum so for rubio to say they're taking more of the moral arguments, it just doesn't seen to be borne out by the actual economics. >> jon, it was interesting to me, because hi's not making any effort to tell the story, and some are saying there is a realignment happening in the gop, where they're moving against the kinds of things that mattie is describing, and it's odd. rube use in a way is kind of -- also pushed for the child tax credit, but maybe outflanking trump on the right what's your takeaway before we go >> i don't see in as a realignment.

remember, this was rubio's identity when he ran for president in 2016. he said he was going to be the one who took care of republicans who lived paycheck to paycheck he was holding out at the end, but he was holding out for some more what you might call populist provisions in that bill he knows president trump will not be around forever, he's a young man, may want to run for president again, by he wants to cast himself as the person defending the interests of the average american more than the typical republican. the dow is up 340 points, so choosing to focus on the positives here thank you, both. before we head to break, as i mentioned, the dow is up 1.3%, about the same for the nasdaq

and s&p. blue chips are up. here's what else is coming up. >> announcer: an earnings recession, ongoing trade talks, and weakening economic data. could all this mean that the fed's pause may turn into a cut? we'll debate stay local paul jones says the u.s. is the place to be, and will outperform the globe. is he right? and peloton is getting closer to an ipo will it be a smooth rigde or a rough road? this is "the exchange" on contract nbc cnbc. athing free. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. we see homes staying cooler,

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welcome back stocks are gathering steam as investors have been pricing out the prospect of any fed rate hikes. in fact they're pricing in rate cuts let's bring in joel, and kenny polcari. both are cnbc contributors joe, let me start with you >> we've taken the hikes off but it's not fully there having said that, i would say the next move is likely a cut, and probably in early 2020.

>> because there's a slowdown? or no inflation. >> we're past the peak in the growth rate, outshifting from 3-something to 2-manage. >> we did for a quarter. >> year on year growth last year i'm guessing we were over 3, but in 2019 we'll slow further, and inflation pressures are moderating vendor deliveries, prices paid, all the things in the industrial side are much weaker. >> so markets having don't quite nicely to start off this year. ar chairman powell signaled this was coming, took his foot off the meddle the jobs openings this morning and -- are we so sure that rate cuts are coming? >> i'm not sure about that i think they might do nothing, they may back off the whoa rate hike, by i think rates are so

artificially low rates are still artificially low compared to what they are normally i don't see the country or the world, the glob economy goods into a crisis mode honestly, i think that sends a very different message to the visiting world, right? if they start cutting rates at this point, so i think the next move is nothing, and then beyond that, i think rates start to go up against i don't see a resays for us in 2019 i guess anything could happen, but i think stocks could do well in this environment rates are definitely low, rates are low relative to nominal

growth, but if you take europe for example or even japan, you've had lo recession rates. germany close to a recession, technical recession. rates are low, but, look, rates that containing also matter. as you know, almost an eight-year high. >> what's funny you have these millennial group that are now in the business of buying houses. >> that think the rates are too high, and they're scratching my head g. oh, my god when i first bought my house, it was 15% and i thought i had a deal >> it's all relative but look at german bund yields, they're barely positive. much of the curve is still negative this is truly a new world post-'08 >> joe, the one scenario that people haven't seemed to be positioned for, growth continues, but inflation didn't

come no, what if it's the expansion continues, there's no inflation, they don't have to raise rates then what? >> my guess is they could rate rates in 2020. in part it's become a long business cycle i would argue there's pent-up demand that typically categorizes a business cycle >> kenny, i was just about to say, this is basically the longest expansion, i think once it goes past september. >> but look, for eight years we had almost zero interest rates in this country. it's only been the last couple years we tried to normalize.

>> maybe become a little more defensive, so you want to take names like consumer staples, some utilities, just in there a bit to help stabilize, right >> and a rate cut doesn't mean the end of the bull market that's what i think the fed will do in response to a fairly team -- >> thank you both. coming up, underarmour delivering better than expected earnings, but sales are still trailing the competition what will it take to change that if you need a home equity line of credit, there's now an app for that, how one statup is trying to disrupt the lending space. sometimes, they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities.

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here are some of the movers, moulsen coors has a mixed quarter. the company also said it will restate its financials for 2016 and 2017, due to accounting errors related to the partnership in miller coors. those shares down nearly 10% today. shop shopify, and weak guidance is sending it lower.

el chapo was found guilty today on all counsel he's facing life in prison when he is sentenced on june 25th assassina nato secretary-general says that they will respond -- but will not station more nuclear missiles in europe >> any steps we take will be coordinated, measured and defensive. we do not intend to deploy new ground-based nuclear missiles in europe >> toddler boots from target are

under a recall it involves cat and jack unicorn boots. the hasn't can potentially detach they were sold from october through november of 2018. that is the news update this hour >> those are pretty good stylin' in those boots. >> i thought it was going to be the fur. >> no, the horn comes off and kids stick everything in their mouths that's the problem. i am joined by tyler mathisen. >> well will pick up where you guys leave off the latest on the possibility of a government shutdown, the latest on the possibility of a trade deal we're going to spend time today talking about a ining activisio. these sort of everybody free play games are changing --

>> like fortnite. >> like fortnite and some successor vision we'll be watching their report -- and we have two top analysts >> apex is the new game? >> it's done very well, i think 10 million users over the first week or so. >> they're off to the races. >> a very nice recipe. >> tyler, thank you. here's what's ahead on "the exchange." whole food prices get whole gets. there's a new devio game king. and chipotle's spicy comeback comeback it's all ahead on "rapid fire. and put it all to work with ai. the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business.

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like this device to increase volume on your cell phone. - ( phone ringing ) - get details on this state program call or visit welcome back let's catch you up on a few stories that should be on your radar today. contessa brewer, scott wapner and dominic chu. welcome to everybody underarmour, the shares are up after an earnings beat they cited big growth overseas

>> stock has been all over the map today as well. it took time for it to follow through. the company was pretty optimistic that helped the stock turn around they are more disciplined than they have been in the past their inventory levels are better than in the past, which was a huge overhang. the margins are better they seem to have current -- turned the corner. >> you're not seeing it flow through. >> because they better manage their inventory for the first time in several years. >> these are execution things that kevin plampg, the ceo and founder are addressing, and seem to be doing it. >> they had positive outlook for 2019, but if you look at north america, that seems to be what's holding them back. they're still lacking nike and

adidas >> nike is such a bigger company. but he was talking about a $5 million company. nike is many, many times larger than that. when kevin plank start, it was like we're going to take them on, we're not feared by anybody, but it's okay to take a step back, we can be great. >> great point enchs i think it's part of the maturity. peloton, the maker of those commercials, but yes, the maker of the stationary bikes, they are reportedly interviews bank as they take the next step toward a ipo

it was valuedever over $4 billion after the last funding round. and looking to best that number. >> if you look at the way the valuations was ground. it was valued at 1.25 billion when it went on a fund-raising round. that's incredible growth part of it is has become a must-have object of desire and luxury panache in the fitsness world. it has a cult following. forget about luxury handbags or high-end shoes, what you want to -- >> $2,000 entry level, right >> they cornered this subscription as well in fact they want to be known as retail, tech, logistic. >> peloton interactive, take our technology out for a run >> that's what i was going to bring up we talk about the commercials featuring the bike, but now it features the treadmill, you go

ahead video screens. the subscription, by the way is a recurring item that costs $40 a month. >> remember when you're cable used to cost that. >> it's pretty crazy. >> i am not convinced they have a durable moat that somebody else can come in. >> you can go to amazon an get the bide or treadmill, an app on your phone that takes you through classes. it doesn't have that luxury brand appeal, that sense of security when i was in college, i splurged on a nordic track they were so expensive at the time they were the uber-luxury of fitness. guess what it became a coat hanger. >> people i talk to are still using theirs. shoppers could start seeing

their grocery bills go up against at whole foods they're raising prices on more than 500 items due to rising costs. the company responded in an e-mail to cnbc -- like at grocers, whole foods market has experienced increased costs, absorbed much of the inflation many prices have also decreased. we continue to expand the number of promotions to give our customers better volume, dom. >> to be fair nigh local grocery store now charges 69 cents for bananas. this was just my normal store i go to. there's a reason why you look at commodity costs, people exclude things like food and energy. the core customer for whole foots i'm not sure is one that's going to fred.

>> that's why jim cramer was saying this is good news for walmart. skod scott, the answer appears to be make they're not >> they did cut prices when they were bought by amazon. >> maybe it doesn't matter to them >> i will say the marinara sauce went down to like $5 a bottle. i watch that price >> so much for the no inflation idea, that everybody puts forth. there's no inflation anywhere. this is probably a level of stealth inflation that not enough people talk about whether you do start going there and start paying more, you're going to feel it. >> let's talk about shares of electronics arts, that are jumping today, apex piled up

millions of users. it took fortnite two weeks to get to that number dom, how big a deal do you think it is? >> they did it without a huge marketing budget that word of mouth spread so quickly like wildfire. it took fortnite to get to 25 million. it took them a week. >> we'll talk about it next hour, but i wanted to talk about chipotle highest levels in more than three years, but the stock is up 38% to start this year this is a big score for big ackman, right? >> he was instrumental i think in helping picnicle as the ceo from taco bell who has done nothing short of a -- he's

changed thes fundamentals of the best, certainly one of the best ceo performances. >> does it change the narrative on bill ackman is he now starting to turn a corner >> i think any win will perhaps help you do that >> 100 million on nike in six months that was a year ago. that's two now. >> yeah, he's definitely had a better go of it of late. but, sure, anything incrementally positive will help the narrative. >> chipotle overall, it seems like it recovered a bit from the food safe shares, you get another 27% from here, guys, it's right back to record highs, something that we were not talking about. >> another thing that all the company that is we have talked about today that have in common is their focus, resources, energy they're spending on

customer experience. it's tough guys, thank you, contessa, dom and scott. lego movie shining a light on the larger problems. is the box office in for a rough year plus a start-up that's changing the way and the speech with which you can get h aome equity line of credit. you only need your phone we'll explain, ahead

373-point gain, as you can see there for the blue chips pretty spread across the dow. did you go to the movies last weekend probably not julia boorstin has a look at what's next for the movie industry >> reporter: the lego movie 2,

the second part, failed to turn a struggling 2019 box office around it grossed $34 million at the domestic box office, as much as 20 million less. a disappointing weekends bringing the user to date down 14.5% from last year, which was bolstered by a "star wars" film thanks to tough comparisons to "black panther," but disney's "captain marvel" should start to turn things around the box office could still hit a record this year, with a slew of sequels like avengers, godzilla, toy story and others, plus live action remakes of dumbo, aladdin and "the linen king. you're kind of suggesting this

isn't just a passing issue, is it what's going on for the issues more broadly >> i think we have to point out the -- there's no question thatted bar is higher than ever now, because there's so much content available for streaming at home, including original movies on the likes of netflix remember those blockbuster numbers that they shared for "bird box" so i think the bar is higher but i think it's one of these things if a movie does not speak to the public as part of the water cooler conversation, people are willing to sit it out, because it is relatively expensive to go to the movies. >> believe me, i know. but also maybe the compelling content is elsewhere do the theaters have to bend here and say, maybe we're going to try to come up with other ways to get people excited about this dent, even if it means getting it streaming more

quickly? then maybe you take the family i don't know >> reporter: well, the theater chains will push off on closing that window between when movies are distributed in theaters and when they're available for streaming at home. the theater chains want that window three months to protect the theatrical experience. having said that, i think we will see some of the studios, including warner and -- to release moves at home sooner we could see in as little as three weeks available for streaming at home. i think that's very important to note i do think, kelly, the big moves will still be big. "captain marvel," the "avengers" movies have potential to draw an audience across all four quadrants. i think where we'll see the industry suffer is with the smaller movies where people figure, i can't wait and watch it at home

thank you, julia. paul jones said equities will outperform their counterparts is he right to be so bullish that's next. i consulted with your grandmother's doctor.

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welcome back paul is sharing hi call for 2019 listen >> i think this year we'll have u.s. exceptionalism, and u.s. outperformance i think the s&p 500 will outperform its peers and outperform emerging markets. >> we should also point out tudor jones back in june that he thought u.s. stocks could go crazy higher tedd is here, and host of the podcast capital allocators. >> thanks, kelly. >> do you think u.s. equities are a great call >> that's a tough call to make i leave that to paul. >> are you worried about the whole back drop where the 2020 candidates are coming out with ideas on how companies to al cat capital? >> not really.

i tend not to think about it in the short-term time frames again, paul tudor jones, leave those calls to him >> where do you think is an attractive place to be >> we're looking in off the run niches one of them calls. what or where it is an attractive place to be. >> one of them is in microbiology and we partnered with brent e shore and columbia, missouri, who buys small businesses and pays low multiples and you can't find that. >> okay. where else? >> one of the other places we love was harvesting volatility. there is a terrific manager and harvest volatility and they do a good job of capturing the insurance premiums a market. when the markets bounce around it's more attractive. >> what would be another one. >> one is a crypto arbitrage

fund. it is not owning bit coin but there are different markets where bit coin is traded in hunting hill capital specializes on it focusing on a special area of the market. >> does that mean the average investor does not have access to the places you think are attractive investments right now? >> i think that is true to some extent. we buy low cost active exposure so it's not a question of can everyone access these things. these things are hard to access and they need specialized knowledge to do it but to get exposure to broadbrush areas you can do that effectively. >> you see that they have to go as low as possible and migrated from a jack vogel thing brought to something that's making more in the hedge fund community. do you think there is more room

for fees to come down if that's how these fees are viable in the long run? >> is happening. investors are used to sing hedge fund equals high fees and some of the most talented players an active management are in the head french space but investors realize returns have come down because of the competition and we need to play less in fees. >> i wonder if pension funds because the nature of them should be given low fees than other investors. is there reason to privilege that class of investors? >> one of the reasons and things that happened you get quantity discount. i had chris on my podcast earlier this week and he said they can do things that smaller players can't and you see more and more of that. it's a big if and they are doing it for lower costs. >> we know about the passive

versus active management. they think crypto will outperform the s&p over the next 10 years. which side of that would you be on? >> i would not take any of that back. apples and oranges? note this is apples and pears. i have no idea if they will outperform. thank you very much for joining me and good to get your ideas. coming up. if you need to pull money out of your home one start up is working to make that process asr.er and whole lot fte as we headed to break a look at the stocks that are highs today. the dow was up nearly 400 points. be back in a few minutes. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level.

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emerson. consider it solved. welcome back. the stocks are climbing and the dow up 400 on the button with a 1.6% gain and kathi belich, dupont and three m. all sensitive to china names we watch until the close. american homeowners sitting in $6 trillion they can tap into through home equity loans and one startup looking to make them faster and on your smart phone. let's bring in the ceo of blend

and nemo, thank you so much for joining us. you flagged the story for us. you are partnering with banks for people to get home equity loans on their phones. how many people are doing this? >> they have more equity in their homes and we are seeing that as rates go up and values of homes go up people tap into equity for remodels or going to college or anything like that. >> when you say tapping and you mean literally. >> quite literally, i think. i think it's a one tap process. the old white was collecting your bank statements and pay stubs and showing up at the bank with all that paperwork and with blend we make it so that it shows up in your smart phone and you can do it in a few minutes and do the process digitally. >> you what are you hearing from the banks? >> there was a recent survey

that says 80% of customers would want to do mortgages. you think about it you are walking around with a bank branch in your pocket. >> in light of the bb&t center steel last week and so much is about technology and the smaller banks keep up. something like blend offers that capability without being as big as j.p. morgan. >> there are $11 million tech budget is pretty daunting for regional banks to go up against. you mentioned u.s. bank and wells fargo is the biggest and i would wager a lot of the other ones are small. >> can you share that with us? back yet. we have customers and u.s. bank ranging from small community banks and credit unions and the investment it takes to build a product that can make this process simple and a few taps was a significant investment for us and is not something

everyone can take on. we help taken on for the industry and it brings the qualification and credit that consumers have to go to to get this product and it's a complicated process and we help make it simple. >> with some appreciate your simplification. could mortgages themselves be next? >> we started with mortgages and we thought it was a good starting point in the mall complicated. it's changed many people's lives and we want that to be more accessible and we are trying to do the same thing for homeowners and making the equity in their homes accessible to them as well. >> and getting this right could be great business. >> this costs financial services and its painful and has provisions and it's faster for the customer. >> how has it been for business? >> it is good. there is a lot of consolidation

in this space and people expected more than they ever did. historically they have been ignored and we are happy to be working with many institutions better and simpler. >> and making blend a good business along the way. >> better lending. >> [ laugh ] the mona lisa smile. >> thank you for joining us. hugh thank you as well. that's it for the exchange, everyone. i will join tyler in a moment and it begins right now. >> we will see you just a moment. i am tyler map and knew it 2:00 socks soaring on a potential deal to avoid another government shutdown. and upbeat words from the president about trade and china. and taking aim at buybacks. this time is coming from the right and senator marco rubio from florida and we will debate it. the stock is up more than 30%