check please we were up 405 at the highs. 50 points off of that now. >> looking like the deal on the government shutdown and possibly trade helping stocks today. >> we'll ask scott for the next check please. >> we will thanks for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ good afternoon very warm welcome to the "closing bell. i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm sara eisen. coming up, an exclusive interview with joe tsai. whether investors should be concerned of an economic slowdown in china. calling for regulation of big tech, elevation partners roger mcnamee will join us to weigh in. rally day on wall street. take a look at the major averages, an hour of the trading day left 1.5% gain for the dow.

s&p up 1.3%, the best day of february for stocks. almost every group within the s&p is higher. materials and financials in the lead only rae estate is lower nasdaq up 1.4% even the russell which led yesterday is up a percent on its own. >> a last week europe kind of was lower and we were resilient against that this week, sorry europe and the rest of world much slower. we have taken that lead each morning from the international and improved it. near the highs of the session. let's begin today in washington with the latest on the government shutdown. ylan mui has more for us ylan >> reporter: mitch mcconnell putting the ball squarely in president trump's court. gop senators just wrapped up the weekly policy luncheon meeting and senators came out and talked to reporters and they repeatedly said that this deal is a down payment on the president's priorities. >> first of all, i hope he signs the bill and second, i think he ought to

feel feel free to use whatever tools he can legally use to enhance the effort to secure the border i would not be troubled by that. >> reporter: the president can still use his executive powers to build the wall even if he does sign the deal and what you hear conservatives call for. graham, one of the trump's whisperers here on capitol hill, said that the president likely needs more detail on detention beds before he can get behind the agreement. meanwhile, the house freedom caucus came out against the compromise and we have heard from leadership of the republican and the democratic parties urge the president to sign whatever congress sends to his desk and that means they're going to force the president to take full responsibility if this all falls apart at the last minute back over to you. >> ylan, how much wall offense will we get relative to the original aim >> reporter: well, what this deal would do according to my sources is fund 55 miles of new

physical barrier some call that fencing some call that steel slats but that's how much would be able to see under this deal. there's about $1.375 billion for that construction in this agreement. >> is that enough for the president to if that's as far as it goes to spin to his base as a victory or not i mean, we have seen some right wing media commentators criticize the deal. >> reporter: gop leadership is framing this as a win. they say they got to move democrats off of their position of not one dollar for the wall and 1.3 plus billion dollars for the wall so that would be a bin for them and clearly the president knows that's not 5.7 billion and what he originally promised so it's going to be up to president trump to decide if this is something to swallow at the end of the day. >> ylan mui from washington, thank you. joining our "closing bell" exchange for the day, patrick palfrey and rick santelli in

chicago. patrick, i know you're optimistic on the markets here do you see this tentative deal for a shutdown as part of the fuel for today's rally >> i think it's helping today but do i think it matters longer term less so. the last shutdown wasn't as damaging to equities as people suggested. it is painful for those caught up in the crosshairs but in terms of the impact on the economy, we don't see it having much of a ikt pay. >> rick, we have been looking at the dollar, eight days in a row of gains today giving up some ground. doesn't seem to hold that ground above 97 for long when it gets there. >> no, it really doesn't as a matter of fact, if you look at all of 2018, what you will find is in november we made the high for the last year, it was a close of 97.54 with a little grouping before and after that that reflects that sentiment it just gets up there and doesn't seem to hold now, if we get a close above those 2018 highs at 97.54, i

would be more optimistic but i think the real issue is much of the strength in the dollar index comes at the behest of the euro currency unfortunately, close to 58% of the dollar index is the euro so it's like swimming in a circular pool, wilf. think you will get out of the zone you're not going to you're always going to hit an edge and i think that's giving the index less horsepower and so many other ways to strategize on the strength of the dollar, trade weighted in a variety of indices but just on the face of it, yes, a close above that level i think would be quite bullish in the big picture. >> investors are feeding into the market more and more saying it is a slowing recession >> i agree with them look at the first quarter numbers right now you see something that's essentially zero let's give you two ways of

looking at it. last year we had success of large companies growing very fast think of them as the fang names, social media names and oil they were very strong, very big. 2019 they're e vvaporating and these large companies are no longer seeing the same strength and taxes. big benefit in 2018. added 7% to 8% of the bottom line and a drag in 2019 and subtracting more growth, as well. >> earnings recession is being distorted by big cap stocks and in fact looking at the number of stock that is aren't in that camp it is more than those that are. >> i think you hit the nail on the head there if you look at the median company, we still see median bottom line growth of 5% to 6% that's not feeling like an earnings recession we have revenues growing 3% to 4% for the median company meaning we get operating leverage the's not a margin problem in there and for those looking at the headline number saying we are seeing a problem, it is not

felt by the typical company in the s&p 500. >> you are expecting the market rally to continue i assume. >> absolutely. >> who will lead it? >> i think the leadership comes from the breadth and the last couple of years we saw fang be a big driver to the extent of the market widen out and see success coming from a broader group of names and that average name is doing well and healthy and drives the market forward. >> rick, does this small business data optimism suggest it's wrong and companies might feel pain coming forward >> well, i think that it is definitely coming off historic highs. that i won't dispute but i personally think that the real issue i focus in on small business is their future hiring and even though some of the comments by the respondents don't fuel that line of thinking, i've read others that say it is better than advertised at the moment. and i still contend that there's a variety of issues making

small, medium and large companies not have more hiring or capital expenditures but i think many of the issues will be resolved whether it's global question marks like brexit or chinese trade. these issues will be resolved unlike many on the agenda in congress that never get resolved >> patrick, how key was the change in tone from the fed to allow you to be bullish as you are on u.s. equities and if that changes add autohalfway through the year would it be a quick change >> i think the change in tone so important to us. when i was looking middle of the december i understood why the market was selling off i think the concern for the fed to push the country into a recession. now that the fed taken a more dovish stance that gives us confidence in the success of the call, it tells us that they're likely done and sit on the sidelines. we don't see the fed as being a problem for equities now. >> okay. thank you very much, patrick palfrey and rick santelli j. the bulls are in control

today but could the dollar's recent strength pose a risk to the rally? shares of under armour, could there be a red flag for the stock? reach out to the show on twitter, facebook or end an e-mail the "closing bell" back after a quick break. obvious. sometimes, they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities.

cme group - how the world advances. ♪

[ ding ] show me just add magic. hey toothless. [ ding ] [ gurgling ] [ ding ] show me cartoons on netflix. [ ding ] [ cooing ] [ door closes ] [ cooing ] ♪

[ ding ] show me fish on youtube. say it and see it with the x1voice remote. from netflix, prime video,youtube and even movie tickets. just say get "dragon tickets". ♪ welcome back to the "closing bell." 48 minutes left of trade there's the dow up 1.5%. very healthy session here across the major indices. dow up 371 in points term. very near the high the open was the low of the session up 98. shares of under armour higher today it wasn't all good news for the bulls. sara, you are digging into the numbers. up 6%. >> up a lot. bouncing all over the place this morning. overall it was a better quarter. the keys there, margins are improving. the company's relying less on promotions and managing the costs better and inventories

that was a highlight for investors. inventory's down 12% from a year ago. that indicates they're in much healthier shape. disappointment came around the sales. sales down in north america and they were down in the key footwear category. i spoke this morning to kevin plank, the ceo and number two patrick frisk to turn that sales trend around the emphasis they said on building franchises. here's a plank quote curry really taught us a lot from curly 1 to 6 we were able to build something on that with basketball we have been able to expand with stephen so kids get to know the franchise. in the past we have been too quick to get on to the next idea and some ideas they told me about, the harper collection as in bryce harper cleats they come in early and then build on that. not unlike nike with jordan brand. i did ask plank and frisk about competition bah nike and lululemon are doing well in the

category plank emphasized that under armour is a giant player in the space saying the $5 billion fre threshold, for their business srks a big deal. only a few have made it that big. the bottom line is both executives talked a lot about discipline and getting to a pleiss where they can have sustainable, predictable and repeatable an profitable growth. that actually is a huge switch from where they came from, growth at all costs in the good old days and then the stock tumbled with a wall. frisk told me coming to products we were not on message all the time and that's a big part of his w focus to turning the company around on the sales improvement, they will have to prove in quarters to come. >> quickly on the difference in north american performance compared to arrives of nike, do people see the brand as les quality or a one off quarterly factor

>> sometimes it just depends who has the torch. nike's had a few hits like vapor max, the off whites. so right now they're doing a lot better in that home market and under armour pulled back and got tough comps because last year at this time they were off to the races to unload the inventories, especially at off price. different companies specific and macro specific factors and competitive and certain companies are doing better and adidas, as well. let's bring in jan niphen. what is your take on this? i mean, the stock up and down a bit before the open. but settling today healthily higher. >> i wasn't surprised when i saw it open up this morning on the news and surprised once everybody read the release i'm a little surprised quite as strong as it is because i thought it was a solid release they did a good job on gross margins like you were talking

about. a good job on expense. they have done all the things they told us they were going to do at the beginning of the five-year plan so certainly people should have been happy they succeeded in doing what they thought they were going to do on the other hand, i still think north america's pretty disappointing when they're not competitive there and what it does look like there they're trying to be more reasonable in north america with the distribution and probably hurting them a little bit but we're talking about a company of $5 billion like, you know, that's a big deal except what's nike $40 billion? so clearly they're up against a very, very strong competitor and when i looked at it i say do i want to own under armour or nike at less than half of that? nike's doing an extraordinary job and as you guys just mentioned lulu is doing a good job. i don't know how they take the market share back particularly in north america they had a good release.

>> yeah. one way to distinguish themselves, jan, we talked about this this morning with kevin and patrick is through performance wear they're not trying to be a fashion company. they're going to go back to, you know, keeping you warm on the field and, you know, gear that athletes need. is there a spot for them there >> well, sure. there's a spot for them there but it's still a very competitive spot because they have to play with a great technical company of nike. so i look at it and i say -- i said in my driver, a young guy, on the way over, i said, what do you think of under armour? he said it's kind of past peak i don't think i need it anymore. i was like, an anecdote of one and then i don't it when it's going with what i think. >> that's a contrarian. >> offset is i bought some over the weekend. that's a sell signal. >> definitely. >> that's definitely a sell signal, wilf no way if you're buying it. >> what about internationally?

if they got easy land to grab there still or competitive for them internationally as it is in the u.s. >> i think that's the secret i think growing internationally where they win when they win but they still have to win like i say, 65 multiple and a lot of international growth if they're not going to get the u.s. growth and if they won't take market share back from nike an saying things like, you know, we are going to do more stuff with steph curry, i'm thinking what took you 20 years of watching nike before you figured this out? nike owns that space that's a tough assignment for them like i said, i think they did the right things, i think their business is getting better they're doing a good job on expenses, doing a good job on gross margin they're doing a better job as far as distribution. but i'm not sure that's enough to believe they should have been up on 6% on the offering today i don't see why that's so strong. >> who do you like in retail right now?

you can stay athleisure if you want or broaden it a little bit. >> i like nike and i like kohl's selling a lot of athleisure. but it's hard to -- i really like the brands. it is just not under armour. i like kors, ralph lauren and not thrilled with under armour because i think they look expensive for what they're delivering branded is great direct to consumer is great. they talked about that in the business, to do a better job with the direct to consumer and need a strong brand and not my favorite of the strong brands. i like vf and pvh. i don't have under armour on my list, unfortunately. >> finally, quickly, jan, what is your take on kevin plank as the ceo of this company? >> mixed emotions. he's been a fabulous ceo getting them to where they are we always wonder if the guy who got you there going to be able to do the next phase of the business for you and the jury is

out on kevin but i'm a lot more optimistic about him than, what, say, a year ago? >> he is empowered patrick frisk as the number two and continues to talk about how well he's doing coming to executing on the profit and inventory problems. jan, thank you. >> i think he had to do that. >> yeah. jan kniffen. big rally, the dow surging into the close, up 370 all groups higher in the s&p which is up 1.3% breaking through the key technical levels, as well. the battling for cloud supremacy is growing what ibm ceo said about the shifting landscape next. later a read on the chinese consumer speaking with alibaba executive vice chairman joe tsai stick ouarnd we're back after the short break.

♪ welcome back to "closing bell." s&p and nasdaq on track for the highest close since december 3rd as stocks surge into the close right now. the dow up 380 points. s&p up 1.3%. nasdaq up 1.5% and so is the dow. materials, financials and consumer discretionary leading the charge. the cloud landscape is shifting jon fortt with a look at how new customer demands impacting the wider space. jon?

>> reporter: yeah, wilf. it is a new cloud clash, another front in the cloud wars. think of it this way it used to be about the giants claiming that they were going to have supremacy in the cloud. and then they started talking more about hybrid, connecting data centers to the cloud and now talking more about interoperating, connecting clouds to each other that's part of the backdrop for ibm's announcement of watson anywhere that watson ai of theirs is now going to work on other people's clouds take a listen. >> what watson anywhere is about is demand of clients and got to do with data you know, we talk about how much data everyone has and where is the data and protect it and move it this is in response to that. >> reporter: so this is ibm think. it is their big conference here in san francisco 26,000 people. kind of a rival to dream force, to oracle's open world they want to drive home this cloud integration point.

another thing that ceo rometi talked about and will in the keynote tonight is cloud integration platform ibm says to allow developers to code three times faster basically to interoperate things of clouds and seen this issue come up before back in september i sat down with sat yeah nadelli of microsoft, bill mcdermott of sap talking about the open data initiative allowing enterprises to move data from one cloud to another and salesforce bought mule soft last year. that was also about a similar issue, allowing customers to get their data out of legacy systems and kind of begin that transition to the cloud. so, they're kind of being friendly in a sense, at least talking more friendly about allowing customers to interoperate between different clouds and gives them an advantage in the long term being able to sort of own the story around cloud we will have to dig deeper in a

financial results to figure out who's gaining the benefit of the cloud. it is not just about having the cust h customers on your system. >> jon, where are we in terms of the rough market shares? is there some easy catch up for ibm to play after the big three of google, microsoft and amazon? >> reporter: it's not easy but by many measures, depending on what kind of cloud you're counting, ibm is ahead of google perhaps. depending on what you're counting google has not done a great job in enterprise cloud. that's an area where they're trying to beef up with the new ceo there. they have got work to do on the salesforce side, support of helping big customers grow in the cloud. ibm's trying to counter with a red hat acquisition when they expect to close in a second half of this year but amazon's still far and away ahead. microsoft doing pretty well at number two once you get beneath them,

there's a scramble depending on the segments of the market you measure. >> thank you, jon, there in san francisco. still to come, the international push for big tech regulation with roger mcnamee. video game stocks all over the map this year. we'll get the latest read on the industry when activision blizzard reports after the bell.

when you look at the critical issues facing our world, what do you see? we see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. we see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of clean energy. we see engineers simulating the future to improve today. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved.

♪ welcome back to the "closing bell." exactly 30 minutes left of trade. we are up 320 on the dow here's the four indices up 1.5%. s&p 500 sectors for you. only one in the red, that's real estate materials up a healthy 2.3%. financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, technology all up around 1.5%. time now for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> hello, everyone here's what's happening at this hour congressional democrats reintroducing gun legislation two days before the one-year anniversary of the parkland high school shooting. the keep americanssafe act would ban the import, sale, manufacture or possession of gun

magazines that hold more than ten rounds >> there is no more simple, straightforward way to save lives from gun violence than to ban these high capacity magazines and to take them off the streets. californian governor newsom says he is ending the state's efforts to build a high-speed rail line of san francisco and los angeles. in his state of the state address, he says that it would cost too much and it would take too long to build. latest estimates put the cost at $77 billion. and a public funeral was held this morning for former congressman john dingell he served in the house for 59 years. former vice president joe biden and his wife jill were in attendance a second service will be held in washington on thursday you are up to date that's the news update this hour sara, wilf, back downtown to

you. >> see you next hour thank you. the uk government publishing a new report today saying news distributed by online tech companies like google and facebook should face regulation. the report said a state regular lors to should ensure they take steps to identify trustworthy, reliable news on the platforms. >> joining us to discuss, roger mcnamee. author of "zucked. roger, thanks for joining us we thought we'd start there with this report out today from the uk saying that when it comes to news, these companies should be taking more responsibility for the accuracy of the news do you think that is something that we're close to being -- close to seeing enforced in the u.s. if not, why not? >> so, wilf, there are meaningful differences between the ways news is treetded in the united kingdom and the u.s our first amendment makes the role that the uk is asking

platforms to play more difficult to implement here. it's not to say it isn't a really laudable goal i would love to see everybody do a better job of preventing the distribution of disinformation in particular. i think that in the united states that's the way to go, to focus really on changing the business model so that these companies do not have an incentive to promote the spread of things that are not true. and to prevent third parties from doing that. and that's really where the problem is the uk i think has a more -- a different regulatory environment so they have flexibility we do not have here. >> who gets? does senator klobuchar who launched her race with a shot against some of the tech companies, is she someone in your view that understands what it takes to regular lat these companies? >> yeah. sara, i think congress has gotten a really bad rap.

there were obviously some people at the front end of the hearings who were not in touch with what's going on. but i think we have had a change, what with the 2018 midterms and with the new awareness in congress that we can no longer just trust everything that the tech industry produces and so i believe that klobuchar absolutely -- she's demonstrated a clear competence in this area. in the senate richard blummen that will and corey booker and elizabeth warren have been leadership people and markey is fantastic and two senators from oregon and in the house literally dozens of people who get this we trusted tech for a long time. congress didn't think it needed to regulate and now it knows that there are lots of parts. we have to address children in one way, adults in a different way. there's a lot of things to

create to opportunity for competitors to develop i think congress is up to it it takes a wril but worth it so i think they'll get it right. >> when you say we trusted them, don't we still trust them? facebook continues to grow users into the billions an doesn't feel like people have a trust issue with facebook. so senator klobuchar and you and others who are calling for this, is it really going to resonate with the american voter? >> no. so, sara, i think you're asking a great question i would break that into two parts, right let's look at the investor piece first. facebook is indisputably the greatest advertising platform ever created it has the largest audience and best targeting you may have noticed that the load of ads in your newsfeed is rising really dramatically in mine, roughly every fifth or sixth post is now an ad which i believe is essentially double what it was a year ago an so, they're getting a point where pretty soon facebook's

going to look like the classified section and i think that's likely to be a problem. now, if we look at the issue of trust, i think -- no i'm on the road talking to people all the time. usage of facebook is down i think nielsen says 20%, maybe 25% over the last 5 quarters so while people haven't deleted facebook they have changed the behavior and we saw that in the 2018 misterms when disinformation was a lot less effective than in 2016 so i think the trurs st is down and important for facebook to earn it back, make the changes and respond to the fact that the platform has unintentionally enabled bad actors to do terrible things to innocent people and facebook has a responsibility to protect but keep in mind this is not just about facebook you know my book is about facebook because that was the one i was closest to and where i saw the problem first but this is about facebook it is about instagram, what's app. the facebook pieces. but google and youtube an it is

about other people, as well. we just need to keep that in mind. >> roger, stay with us we have actually got some news out of california on a new proposal to share profits from silicon valley companies julia boorstin with the details for us in l.a. >> gavin newsom in the state of the state address proposing a first of the kind data dividend and praised california for developing comprehensive privacy regulations to go into effect in 2020 and newsom said, quaet, the california consumers should be able to share in the wealth of the data and asked my team to develop a proposal for new data dividend for californians because we recognize that your data has value and it belongs to you. so clearly, this is still in very early days. it is on his team to figure out what this could actually look like and with this looming privacy regulation, this could also be an additional headache for the likes of facebook and google, certainly.

back over to you. >> julia, thank you very much for that roger, what was your reaction to that i guess we touched on the authenticity of news and how that could be an area of regulation and another area is who owns the data that they're able to monetize what is your take on that? >> so it is demonstrateably true that telecom companies, platforms, medical companies, credit card companies have exercised the digital equivalent of imminent domain for ownership over the data they collect it is completely reasonable to see some pushback against that and to see some kind of sharing. to me, the most important thing is to have conversations about what kind of data usage is appropriate. i can imagine a scenario where we conclude, you know what the selling and use of credit card data is inappropriate or maybe geo location data

should not be shared or data about minors should not be shared there are a lot of ways to look at the problem governor newsom's proposal is one that deserves a serious look because people have given up this data and it's being used in ways they can't control so they have to have that control and one of the best ways to implement that would be to have some kind of cost, a transfer of value from the platforms back to the people whose data is collected. the trick is that increasingly, wilf, the value is less about what they do with an individual and the ways they use your data to change the behavior of larger populations of people. in effect, to create new products that influence, you know, a whole community or a country. and, you know, that's -- if you will, an exciting business opportunity but it's one where we need to decide the ground rules before - >> can you go about this by regulating this state by state is that a good idea? sounds super confusing. >> i agree

in fact, the reason i'm a fan of every state doing it is because it's been super hard to get congress to the table in a way that brings the platforms to the table to negotiate the platforms will take the position that, this is their property they own it. nothing to see here. and what i like about every state doing it is exactly what you said it's unworkable. and that will force a much more reasonable negotiation at the federal level. basically, they're trying to get rid of the california privacy law by having a preexemption it's nuts. it is first level reasonable protection and if we had 27 different laws and 27 different states and other laws that the city level, then the platforms would have a much better incentive to compromise >> roger, i guess a theme overall in your book is that facebook and some others but

facebook in particular have used individuals' data to an extent that's unfair and profited off the back of that as an early investor, in facebook, do you feel that you personally have unfairly profited from individuals' personal data? >> so, wilf, it's a super, super important question the first part first and then the second part. so what happened is that facebook built a business model where third parties could use the data improperly and that's the part i'm deeply troubled about. my engagement in the company 2006 to 2009 you know i did a few things i think were value to believe the company i was super proud of it. when the business model began in 2011 they started to implement a bunch of things of which i was unaware and took so long to figure it out. the answer to the question is that i have chosen to give the money that i learned, i'm giving it away to charity to try to build value in the communities in which i operate, try to help

people with it and devoted all of my time to activism to try to call attention to it i don't know that this is a perfect answer it's the one i have chosen if there are better ideas out there, i'm totally open to it because i did participate. i did benefit. and i continue to own the stock now because i want the employees and the people who run facebook to understand that this isn't personal and trying to fix the company. and, you know, as i sell that stock i'll do more charitable giving and more, you know, things to try to help the world. >> roger mcnamee, thank you for joining us. >> sara, thank you very much for having me. wilf, thank you. we'll talk to you soon. >> on the book "zucked." gucci sales are booming in china despite concerns of an economic slowdown there. 68% of analysts with a buy rating on activision blizzard. those earnings with groupon and trip adviser after the close hey there people eligible for medicare.

gimme two minutes. and i'll tell you some important things to know about medicare. first, it doesn't pay for everything. say this pizza... is your part b medical expenses. this much - about 80 percent...

medicare will pay for. what's left... this slice here... well... you have to pay for that. and that's where an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company comes in. this type of plan helps pay some of what medicare doesn't. and these are the only plans to carry the aarp endorsement. that's because they meet their high standards of quality and service. review aarp medicare supplement plans and their rates in this free decision guide. call united healthcare insurance company or go online. visit aarpmedicaresupplement.com to request yours. even apply online... any time. oh. speaking of time... about a little over half way and there's more to tell. like, how... with this type of plan, you'll have the freedom to choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. great for staying with the one you know... or finding... somebody new, like a specialist. there are no networks and no referrals needed.

none. and when you travel, your plan will go with you anywhere in the country. so, if you're in another state visiting the grandkids, stay awhile...enjoy... and know that you'll still be able to see any doctor who accepts medicare patients. learn more with this free decision guide. call or go online to request yours. tick, tick, tick, time for a wrap up. a medicare supplement plan helps pay some of what medicare doesn't. you know, the pizza slice. it allows you to choose any doctor, who accepts medicare patients... and these are the only plans of their kind endorsed by aarp. whew! call or go online and find out more.

♪ welcome back to "closing bell." let's check in on the individual market movers. today i'm watching gucci parent company kering trading higher. interestingly, joined rivals in reporting strong demand in china for its high-end products and had a theme going here trying to figure out what business in china looks like for the multinational companies. if you are in luxury, it's so far been very strong in the mainland. it is not as strong with tourists abroad. there's another story here with kering which gucci is killing it top of the game with fashion. >> is it gucci >> others are doing well puma with a comeback and gucci is the story and that i think explains a lot of the surge. this is a company that is

showing double digit organic revenue growth on top of - >> luxury in certain areas apple is not luxury in this area. i'm watching shares of moulson coors. it said it's going torestate the accounts for fiscal years 2016 and '17 with an issue of the full buyout of the 58% of coors they didn't -- miller coors they didn't own in 2016 and weighed on the stock but that q4 sales number for beer in the u.s. was a little underwhelming. u.s. and canada. a number of little factors for the 9% decloin. >> beer's a tough business. >> up 18% year to date coming into the earnings and half the -- >> why the beermakers looking into cannabis and cbd. >> exactly. >> growth spurt. >> spending a lot on advertising at the super bowl. we'll discuss if the strong dollar is a risk to equity

rally. gaining significantly the last colef ekup owes.

don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg.

♪ welcome back to "closing bell." dow surging into the close here are some of the winners caterpillar, 3m, dow dupont, united health. really so are many groups, material, consumer, financials it is really broad based rally here. >> the dollar index taking a pause after rallying for eight straight sessions. here to talk about what it means is wynn thin from brown brothers very good afternoon to you. >> a pleasure. thank you. >> putting aslide pullback in the dollar, it is strong as of late what do you put it down to >> that was the big surprise january 3rd, the fmoc decision, power gave a green light to buy equities and sell the dollar 1 out of 2 equities are doing nicely and that's the response you expect confounding the market is the

dollar because u.s. rates will stay low what changed over the last week or two is the fact that the world looks worse. as much as the uncertainty of the risk of the u.s., we are growing strong eurozone is close to stagnation. there's a relative sort of viewpoint that currencies are so fond to look at. >> but also, didn't powell give the green light for other central banks to ease up when it comes to exiting and tighter policy >> i think that's more driven by -- the economy's slowing. i think, you know, in a sense powell's move reflects a broader consensus. the rba tilt dovish. i think it's just one by one going to a much more dovish central bank outlook good for equities and good for dollar. >> what does it mean for emerging markets equities if the

dollar has been strong rather than weak? >> for em, that's good strong dollar is weak local currency that helps exports the's talk of what exchanges for exports and competitive and for em in general you need a strong global growth and a missing piece of the puzzle this makes me nervous about em. slowdown everywhere except for the u.s. china, as well easing aggressively this year. the u.s. is last man standing and only can do so much heavy lifting. i'm more cautious on em. the global growth story. >> we should keep the strong dollar in perspective. strengthening and nowhere near the peak of 2016 even. we have been here before how should a stock market investor who looks a multinational company earnings be thinking about the dollar right now? is it a big head wind or snot. >> at this point, no maybe blinking yellow light.

i always joke about on the desk companies report because of managerial genius and strong dollar it's -- >> not an excuse. >> there's finger pointing we are in the eighth or ninth year of the expansion. i'm o i'm optimistic for 2019. the fed gdp models tracking the strong growth. i'll say the recession story is 2020 >> in terms of fed expectations, some saying a cut could even be the next move but not soon do you think that is -- there could be a hike at some point later this year? >> i think it's overdone the january 2020's pressing on small odds for a cut this year and the strength in the u.s. economy seems to me not consistent i'm sticking the call of hiking in june. the pause in march hike in june

maybe december if the economy is strong. >> how much stronger will the dollar get >> we could see another 5 plus percent. >> this year >> yeah. this year. it's the relative story. the u.s. with momentum and stands out among a crowd of really sort of 98-pound weaklings. >> thank you for joining us. good to see you. up next, we'll be wack with the closing countdown. we have five minutes left to trade. after the bell, alibaba executive vice psintrede will join us. "closing bell" will be right back is the fund built to sell or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information.

read it carefully.

you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis.

welcome back i'm starting with where i started yesterday. here's the shinzhen index. last week closed for a full week there was back an forth on trade. how would it be taken by the chinese market reopening yesterday? it's taken very well that positivity, of course, is carried through here, as well to international markets. half screen of all the indices today as you can see that positivity very much there we have just slipped a tiny bit into the close still up 1% for all of the indices. for the dow up 1.5%. russell, s&p up around 1.2%. sectors for you today, materials that really leads the charge up

2% financials, consumer discretionary, industrials up. one sector in the negative, that's real estate the dow 30 stocks highlight that is broad impressive rally. a couple of stocks in the red, disney and mcdonald's. some resounding gains there for the other 28 just going to show you the dollar today, as well. dollar with eight straight days of gains it's been strong recently. >> a factor helping stocks move to the upside today and really politics and washington. a positive wall deal and up triple digits on the dow close to session highs and 1% advance for the s&p 500. a lot of traders referencing that as well as a factor behind the market moves. >> as earnings season slows down it's the big factors that start

to dominate which is the case over the last couple of days we are up over 1.5% as we approach the bell on the dow there it goes. ringing the bell here at the big board ida corp. celebrating. at the nasdaq is investments of health -- wealth institute sara, back to you. ♪ welcome to the "closing bell." i'm sara eisen wilfred frost will rejoin me in a moment with mike santoli, cnbc markets commentator. a strong finish and day for wall street overall look at how we finished up the dow up gaining into the close. the s&p 500 up 1.3% and the nasdaq also 1.5% higher.

russell 2000 index up 1.3% op optimism around the potential trade deal as u.s. administration members are in beijing this week all helping fuel this rally. stocks closing at the best levels since december 3rd. having their best day only since january 30th tells you how strong of a year it's been. we'll talk trade and joined by alibaba executive vice chairman joe tsai here are the stories for investors. encouraging news on trade and shutdown talks helping stocks to rally. marco rubio siding with democrats on buyback and a different type of proposal and awaiting earnings of activision blizzard, trip adviser and groupon in a few moments. joining us is dave ellison of hennessey funds we'll get to financials in a moment

mike, broke through key technical levels. >> very broad. i would say it was quiet it was jus kind of a levelation and came out of nowhere. the move higher did line up with the headlines about the deal to end the possibility of a government shutdown. that being said, it is hard to see that as a hard catalyst. i think it's process of the market took a one-week breather for a few days and a strong trend and you have had this market sort of making people feel silly for remaining on the sidelines and i think today was part of that people have been somewhat underinvested coming into the year yes, we did nudge above the 200-day average. >> a big deal? >> hard to know if it's significant or not it's dead flat right now so it's not as if it's saying up trend versus down trend. it's probably a little bit overplayed as a very specific catalyst and a positive. >> as you said, mike, the market took a breather last week and

focus then on the disapointing global growth data this week there's not an incremental bad news on that front and equities kicked off each day here on a positive tone. >> exactly it seemed as if we're overshot with the theme last week but, you know, yields remain very low the hurdle rate for getting excited about stocks is that not that high and the usda that remained very strong right? with the job openings information this morning >> record openings. >> exactly all that stuff fits together with the idea that slowly investors are kind of rediscovering the risk tolerance. >> dave, you saw it in the financials which rallied today has the outlook shifted this year from -- i think last talked to you at the end of the last year and things looking gloomier >> well, we have come through earnings season and so far what we have seen is that, you know, credit's been fine and spreads have been okay i think it's the lack of any

real problems that we see in the industry is driving the group. but again, you know, you had there -- the fed basically backed off and that i think is fueled a lot of the rally here in the market and especially in the financials rates have been behaved. i think the environment is good. we kind of forgot how good the environment was around cris this is and re-remembering that the environment is pretty good and people saying, yeah, probably not a bad place to be but i think we are sort of getting into what i call a market of no place else to go rates will stay low. europe won't raise rates and a fear of missing out driving the market in moving upward. >> a factor today is headlines out of washington which gave a boost to stocks. first of all, lawmakers reached a tentative deal to avert a second government shutdown and president trump signaled he'll likely sign it and second reports of trade talks in beijing productive so far, also helped stocks with china

exposure president trump comments on the looming deadline for a trade deal earlier today. >> the 10% or 200 billion goes up to 25% on march 1st and so far i have said don't do that. now, if we're close to a deal where we think we can make a real deal and it's going to get done, i could see myself letting that slide for a little while. but generally speaking, i'm not inclined to do that. >> david, now that a big chunk of earnings season passed us, is this the key factor, these types of stories, macro and politics that drive equities? >> i think you have got obviously the economy is driving it we have talked about that. you have mentioned the job openings, the fed. and now you have these political things whether it be the shutdown or the china trade deal so i think those all add to the reality that, you know, the world's not going to come to an end yet again and i think trump just loves, you know, keeping the deal going until the very --

almost likes he likes negotiating than signing any deal but that's how it is and that's how we have had to deal with it. end of the day the market i think is realizing the economy's decent in this country and that, you know, december was something that, you know, we are all going to have to try to figure out why it happened later. >> i thought the president sounded conciliatory saying that he left the door open even to changing that deadline, the hard deadline on march 1st to raise tariff rates if we're close. >> signal of flexibility is welcome. i think the market wanted it done and didn't want the fight in the first place and check out the box and then the big question is figure out what we're looking toward after that. in terms of the known catalyst i think it is one reason that the sort of volatility index, the hedging instant has not really come down as far as you might expect given this one way rally. we have had finally it has down

toward 15 and seems like there's a little bit of a concentration of anxiety around that march 1st deadline. >> what do we feel like, mike, cash devils are? what's risk sentiment at the moment >> looking at the merrill lynch global fund survey today cash holdings are high in the post-crisis environment. so it seems as if people have been a little bit slow to re-enter the equity market after december so i don't know how to necessarily draw a conclusion from that, though, because to say that cash is now high relative to the post-crisis environment, you are paid for cash now most of the period it paid you zero and maybe more of an inclination. >> competition is there. ylan mui with details of a buyback. >> reporter: a republican senator marco rubio out with a plan to curb buybacks which he says are not a productive use of

capital. now, one of the reasons that buybacks are so popular is because they're taxed understood the capital gains rate in his proposal that would change buybacks taxed as dividends and that would have two immediate consequences one, the full amount would be taxed rather than just the gain and also those buybacks could face higher rates depending on the dividend model they choose this is just a proposal. not legislative text yet and a sense of where rubio is headed with this. now, the fundamental thing he is trying to achieve here, though, is to change the incentives that he says are in place for companies to favor buybacks over capital investment so part of the proposal would use the revenue from the measure to make full expensing permanent that's a provision of the tax law that conservatives say juiced the economy that's where they believe they get economic growth, guys. >> ylan, do you feel if we

didn't -- not seeing a shift of dividends toward buybacks and companies decide to make capital returns to shareholders over the last couple of years, would we see politicians attacking them as much as they are? clearly a capital return is a capital return and the buyback this is's been the central focus for particularly left leaning democrats of the last couple of weeks? >> reporter: i think this is prompted by the new gop tax law that passed in 2017. if you remember, rubio was reluctant supporter of that tax law and argued for a higher corporate rate to pay for the child tax credit and didn't get it at the time and he did raise the red flag and said that the way that the bill was bryn to potential incentivize more buybacks and not capital investment and a missed opportunity. >> the politics are interesting. ylan, thank you. mike, but how about the economics? this plan is very different from what we have heard from some of the democrats.

>> right obviously as ylan said, details are a little bit fuzzy but talking about raising capital gains tax rates as a means to get at buybacks because for some reason we think it's excessive or a problem, it is a roundabout way of doing it an doesn't make a ton of sense and i don't think that the tax preferences of buybacks versus dividends is principle reason they're buying back a lot of -- so the whole kind of objection to the buyback habits of companies rests on all the different layered premises one of which is they would otherwise be investing the money heavily not buying back stock. another one is automatically gets the stocks did go higher and drives the executives' compensation and all the kind of layers of assumptions there that you can pick apart any one of them and it's just unclear what we are trying to solve for. >> that said, if the driving force for the anti-buyback parade of late was to reduce the inequity we have seen, people

also say, look, we have had qe since the financial crisis and just drive stock prices up and gone to the few and not the many blah blah blah increasing capital gains tax - >> to do it in a just essentially even the playing field, absolutely. to say it's nothing to do with buybacks is a different issue. >> market negative >> absolutely. everyone would scare you and people rush to sell the stocks on the old rate. >> david, for investors for shareholders, do you think the tilt we have seen in the last five, ten years of less dividend -- coming to making a return to shareholders, less dividends, more buybacks is a good trend wor welcome it turnin the other direction again? >> there's always a balance. i think i have many years starting buybacks not a big factor at all and now they are

so when you're earning 12%, 15% on equity, and the economy's growing at 2% or 3%, you don't need all that equity to grow because you're not growing as fast as your equity's growing so really it's a testament to corporate profitability being quite high relative to the growth rates in the economy that we're seeing but i think buybacks is -- i haven't gotten rich owning companies that are buying back stock. i've gotten rich owning companies that grow and invent new products and try to change the world and the one that is do that go up 50 fold that's where you make your money. so i think the issue of trying to invest more in the economy is good and the discussion is a good one and you guys have great commentary on it starting a couple of weeks ago with the democratic proposal. i think this is a great conversation to have i don't think we know what the right answer is but if we're going to get to investing more in the economy and investing more in cap x or more in

infrastructure in the country that's a good thing. >> it is a debate that will continue david, we hope you join us again on it. and other topics meantime, an earnings alert on trip adviser. >> a miss on earnings. wilf, 27 cents versus 29 krentd analyst expectation. revenue beat street expectations at $346 million. driven by nonhotel revenue with a growth of 38% year over year that is much higher than what wall street was expecting. though it is worth pointing out that hotel booking revenues did come in lower than expected. down 2% year over year but it's the growth in the nonhotel revenue sector includes tours, experiences and restaurants that wall street is focused on stock is probably down on what it's seeing as weakness in hotels but the stock is up about 65% over the past 1 year, sara

coming into this report expectations were very high. back the you. >> higher bar. thanks. next a video game analyst to trade shares of activision blizzard. and then we'll hear exclusively from alibaba executive vice chairman joe tsai on how the company is impacted on concerns over china's economy. i'm off to college. i'm worried about my parents' retirement. don't worry. voya helps them to and through retirement... dealing with today's expenses... while helping plan, invest and protect for the future.

so they'll be okay? i think they'll be fine. voya. helping you to and through retirement.

we've got an earnings alert on activision blizzard josh >> sara, reporting eps of $1.29 versus $1.28 expected. revenue of 2.84 billion. the street looking for 3.04 billion. turning to the guide for q1 activision, sara, as for the full year that is relatively light. relative to analysts' expectations, as well. activision saying $2.10 on 6.3 billion. analysts looking there for 2019 for 2.54 dlfr on 7.3 billion i have a chance to catch up briefly with okayty vi ceo bobby

kotick on 2018, stressed that the company saw the record rev nugs and earnings and emphasized that the company saw growth in all markets. as for 2019, i asked for outlook there, saying that the company is not projecting growth for the year that while there's going to be a new call of duty, a new candy crush, that the overall slate of content releases relatively light the company said it's gearing up for later releases, pipeline is strong and mentioned they're adding 20% to development head count and again the 2019 overall slate relatively light did ask about the competition, too. obviously global phenomenon of fortnite saying one hand bringing more users, new users to the video game industry on the other hand he did call fortnite a competitive force an i'm sure they'll try in the conference call to say it's all

kinds of business models including the free to play model. as for job cuts, we saw reports that they could be coming. apparently maybe even significant ones the company saying that the press release in fact de-prioritizing initiatives that are not meeting expectations and reducing certain nondevelopment and administrative related calls. i certainly expect more on this conference call to kick off at 4:30 eastern back the you guys. >> josh, thank you very much for the color, the shares are down more than 3% after hours, mike after having a pretty rough patch. >> stock already, you know, basically in free fall not getting relief a massive guide down for the quarter and for the year even after the numbers are caught for 2.10 and eps this year, close to a 20 times earnings and not screening out as cheap and the reflex -- >> is it an active vision

problem? >> combination the group is a tough time in several months but activision more than the others because they haven't had an answer of new releases. >> it's really had a sharp fall. let's discuss this further joining us now on the phone, brandon ross of btig the eps they hit and not much else. >> no. impact to guide was a little bit weak look i think that the problems that this company has been having over the last six months have been well telegraphed and we knew that 2019 was going to be a transition year. i think the guide of 2.10 which, by the way, most investors the last 15% to that because the company is a notoriously conservative guider. it's still little bit light compared to what the sell side was looking for which is why i think you are seeing the stock

down. >> you saw the buy on the stock? >> i do. the last thing we wrote on this, again, 2019 is a transition year there's self-inflicted problems of the company in particular some of the franchises at blizzard needed probably a little bit more tlc than they had been getting over watch and heartstone in particular we don't think those franchises are particularly affected by the battle royale games such as fortnite and apex legends you are seeing and for this company it's about really focusing in on the key franchises, number one number two, bringing ip out of blizzard to the fan base that's ravenous for it and hoping it happens in 2020. >> i mean, you mentioned you don't think that fortnite is necessarily much of a direct threat to the titles and just in

terms in terms of soaking up interest and hours and other publishers besides activision have a better answer for that? >> sure. well, i actually think it's somewhat competitive with the call of duty title which is a first person shooter title i was talking specifically about the blizzard titles before that. do they have an answer well, it's interesting apex legend which came out of nowhere last week, everyone had left ea for dead and now it is a free to play game in the battle royale genre. they have blackout as part of black ops which they could bring free to play if they want to and it will be interesting to find out on the call if this might happen. >> brandon, just to sum this up, your buy that you maintain on the stock is more because you think the selloff is overdone

than great confidence in the year ahead being a strong one for the company? >> no. we've said all along we thought, again, 2019 would be a transition year. we do have confidence in the management team. the last six months have been very messy as we have mentioned however, this management team has proven to execute for several years and it sounds like they're on the right track in terms of fixing things. >> brandon, thank youfor joining us brandon ross of btig the stock is jumping around as well in that interview briefly up and then been down 4% in after hours trade and flat at the moment up next, we'll discuss how trade tensions in the slowing china economy impacting alibaba when we. >> joined by joe tsai. apple ceo tim cook weighs in on how china's weakening currency is impacting iphone sales.

so to make it feel faster we slowed other stuff down. like the escalator. oh. you know at cdw we get that speed matters, that's why we designed you a new faster dell hyper converged infrastructure that would give you the agility and scaleability you would need to grow. and speed things up. perfect. yeah. hang tight this going to take awhile. for data center modernization you need dell and it orchestration by cdw.

when you retire will you or will you just be you, without the constraints of a full time job? you can grow your retirement savings with pacific life and create the future that's most meaningful to you. which means you can retire, without retiring from life. having the flexibility to retire on your terms. that's the power of pacific. ask your financial professional about pacific life today. welcome back alibaba shares up 8% since beating wall street's estimates nearly two weeks ago and concerns of china's slowing economy hang over the company. leslie pickers in san francisco where she is joined exclusively by alibaba executive vice chairman joe tsai. over to you. >> thank you investor pessimism and skepticism over the chinese

economy whether it's a slowdown, the trade war, the government, different regulations. what do you say to those skeptics about investing in the chinese economy at this time as well as investing in alibaba >> i would say as you have the look at the long term. when's happening is china has 300 million middle class consumers and that's the growth driver, that's the engine for growth over the next ten, 20 years. that number according to the oecd to grow to 850 million by 2030 so if you look at the chinese economy today it is very much driven by consumption. retail sales growth is outgrowing gdp and the business side we're in e-commerce outgrowing retail sales so look at 8% retail sales, e-commerce in the fourth quarter grew 21% and alibaba specifically outgrew total e-commerce by several percentage points last quarter so we feel

pretty good right now. >> you are not concerned about a slowdown at all. if there is tension related to u.s. trade relations that isn't impacting alibaba? >> there's a difference of the cyclical and the secular okay so, you know, this might be cyclicality in the consumer durables sale of cars, for example, coming down you know so negative growth over the last quarter. so cell phones is not very good but what we see on the alibaba platform is consumables, doing very well and international brands are doing very well like nike, procter & gamble, lvmh an brands like that with regards to the trade war, i would say this the -- if you look at the long term, the trade deficit itself will reverse you know i have talked about this 300

million middle class consumers that would continue to buy more from over the world. the government has made a commitment to import $30 trillion of goods and $10 trillion of services over the next 15 years. >> the chinese government. >> yes so, you know, it is really kind of interesting that people are focused on the tariffs but over time this structural issue of the trade deficit will reverse itself and china will be buying more from the rest of the world. >> the talks going on right now and policy formulated right now. how do you see the trade war ultimately turning out >> we are always class half full we are in business so we always hope for more benign environment so we remain optimistic that there's going to be a resolution at some point. >> now, in the meantime, though, we have seen, you know, a kind of a backlash against chinese

companies operating in the u.s huawei, zte, ant financial even blocked due to national security reasons. is it harder to be chinese businessman trying to do business in the u.s. these days or is it harder to be a u.s. businessman trying to do business in china these days >> well, i think there's a very symbiotic relationship of chinese businesses and u.s. businesses doing business in each other's countries and we are hopeful that this relationship will be maintained. i think there are some specific circumstances on some of the chinese companies and they will have to work through their issues with the regulators but i think as far as alibaba's concerned what we are doing here in the united states is to help american farmers and small business to sell back into china to export to china and so, for example, we are helping, you

know, the ocean spray cranberries and washington state apples, all those guys that are producing fruits and farming products selling into china on our alibaba platform that's a business for us that we see there's a lot of potential and we continue to, you know, execute that strategy here in the united states. >> now, according to your most recent 20f filing it is about three years since the s.e.c. started to review, looking into some accounting practices of gmv and singles day. why is that investigation going on for so long and do you see that as more of a washington power play at this point or do you think there's actually something that they'll find and be revealed >> well, it's been very long so they haven't found anything. i think there's no updates on that issue at this point. >> now, i want to ask you about

artificial intelligence a. huge topic of conversation today and this week in washington. who do you think will prevail in the technology related to artificial intelligence? it seems like common knowledge of analysts in the tech company that the u.s. is ahead but everyone is very concerned about china catching up to the u.s.'s tech nlg at this point where do you see that battle ultimately ending? >> well, i think it's not quite right to pit china against the united states when it comes to ai or any kind of technology the fact of the matter is everything is symbiotic. specific to ai, if you look at the applications of ai, we're applying it to agriculture, to manufacturing, to health care so, for example, there's an article of chinese hospitals develop new ways using ai to detect diseases and if the benefits of the ai can be shared

globally with all the different country that is will be great but i think there's kind of a knee jerk tendency to say, oh, we're come pet or thes and parallel universes are created i think that's the wrong approach the fact of the matter is there are scientists from china here in the united states working on ai m american companies that are very, very good in ai that want to get into china. i think that -- i think having a more symbiotic relationship and working together on ai is the way to move forward. >> i have to ask you about you have been building up a big sports portfolio you know, what are your plans, especially now that jack ma is planning on stepping down later this year? you've been, you know, building up a big sports franchise in lacrosse and basketball and other areas. what are joe tsai's plans moving

forward? >> i plan to stick around at alibaba for a while. i think jack is moving from the executive chairman position but taking a step back but he'll still stay within the alibaba partnership. the next guy up, daniel tsong who's been ceo for three years will take over the executive chairman role in september taking over that from jack we have got a terrific management team and this transition is a perfect example of really sort of a positive development of very deep bench in management. i'm very, very proud of that. >> all right joe tsai staying in alibaba. thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> back over to you all at the new york stock exchange. >> leslie, thank you very much for that thank you, also to mr. tsai and more from the tech conference tomorrow with goldman sachs ceo david solomon at 3:15 p.m. eastern time you don't want to miss that.

time for a news update with sue herera. >> hi, everyone. h the mexican drug lord el chapo guzman convicted after a three-month drug trial in new york it exposed the inner workings of the cartel shipping tons of drugs into the united states and laundered billions of dollars. he was facing life in prison when he is sentenced on june 25th. >> this conviction is a victory for the american people who have suffered so long and so much while guzman made billions pouring poison over our southern border. boston firefighters battling a five-alarm fire in frigid temperatures this morning. fire taking place in the rocks bury neighborhood. the buildings nine residents escaped on their own country western singer garth brooks signing a ten-day spring

training contract with the pittsburgh pirates and signed autographs and took pictures with fans at the florida spring training camp. you are up to date that's the news update this hour, guys see you tomorrow. >> all right, sue. thank you. up next, the plunge in volatility this year is leading to more hedge funds increasing their exposure to stocks a look at why that could be a bullish sign for the market straight ahead. > >>peloton taking a stride to go public. details coming up. i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade?

exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪ ♪ ♪ our new, hot, fresh breakfast will get you the readiest. (buzzer sound) holiday inn express. be the readiest.

let's take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street strong one across the board on optimism over the tentative deal to avert a government shutdown and potential deal between the u.s. and china on trade. sent the dow surging 372 points. biggest one-day gain for stocks of the month highest close since december 3rd. s&p up 1.3%. the nasdaq gaining 1.5% and russell 2000 index of small caps up 1.3%. with volatility declining after a brutal december, some hedge funds upping the exposure

to equities. mike joins us from the telestrator with more on that angle. mike >> this is a category of hedge funds, systematic trading firms to target the volatility level of a firm and running it with whatever equity volatility we have decided and change the leverage, how much money to boar rein equity and equity futures based on the level of the market this is from wells fargo derivative strategy. these funds start to rebuild the equity exposure. this is interesting. this was last january/february this is what i call a drop of the guillotine fall in exposure right here on a chart. essentially just get out right? purged their equity holdings wait until the market stabilizes a little bit this is when the market rebuilds toward the old highs last spring and into the summer. you see this trajectory of rebuild there. gut check and then from the steady and as volatility bleeds

lower they feel like it's okay to get back in same thing happened here this was your big selloff into really probably october and then they kind of out further in december recently this same angle as over here of getting back in as long as the volatility levels go down and the index does this, they're shoveling ten, 15, 20, $25 billion of net buying into the equity markets from the mechanical strategy and doesn't mean it lasts forever and goes to old highs but there's a cycle going on as the market calms down and reverse if we have a pickup in volatility. >> i wonder how much that has to do with the fed, low volatile till and - >> an aspect the fed won't force a mistake here and reduces the doomsday scenario and has people pulling back on the volatility. >> what sort of -- is this an

indicator or a market mover? >> much more of an indicator not as if they swing huge amounts of capital on the daily basis that are driving the market but it's an indicator of the kinds of things going on with institutional -- >> you went deep today the spin is on high tech fitness company peloton is visiting the big banks. details next. fed chair jay powell drawing comparisons to lake jfk. thmeage divedo e e ssheeler tth people of mississippi. is it because so many go after it the same way, chasing after short-term returns? instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the investment managers at pgim take a long term view. uncovering opportunities for alpha across public and private markets, while anticipating unforeseen risk, has powered our rise to a top ten global asset manager. partner with pgim. the global investment management businesses of prudential financial, inc.

better things than rheumatoid arthritis. before you and your rheumatologist move to another treatment, ask if xeljanz xr is right for you. xeljanz xr is a once-daily pill for adults with moderate to severe ra for whom methotrexate did not work well enough it can reduce pain, swelling and further joint damage, even without methotrexate. xeljanz xr can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections, and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened. as have tears in the stomach or intestines, serious allergic reactions, low blood cell counts, higher liver tests and cholesterol levels. don't start xeljanz xr if you have an infection. your doctor should perform blood tests before and while taking xeljanz xr, and monitor certain liver tests. tell your doctor if you've been somewhere fungal infections are common and if you have had tb, hepatitis b or c, or are prone to infections. don't let another morning go by without talking to your rheumatologist about xeljanz xr.

welcome back here are stories on the "closing bell" radar today. first up, anyone in the market for a $1,500 pot grinder barney's is launching the high-end lifestyle shop inside the beverley hills flagship shop to open in march they're getting attention for this as they should. first department store to include cannabis related products if they're not selling weed or cannabis or anything like that, just very expensive overpriced accessories. like gold rolling papers and $1,000 bongs makes sense given the audience. >> the cultural moment of it being chic is alarming. >> cutting edge on fashion at least. i have gone for the potential peloton ipo.

reportedly meeting with potential underwriters this week according to people familiar with the matter an may debut in the second half of the year. cnbc parent with a stake in peloon theton and seeking for a $4 billion valuation rev nuss of $700 million this year a 5.8 times sales multiple i think the interesting thing is cost $2,000 and then $40 a month subscription. >> expensive. >> targeted to people that go in cities like london and new york to classes which can cost $30, $40 a session. using the bike 50 to 60 times in a year, you're going to start saving money from not going to the classes and expensive, for sure but a big market. >> growing like crazy. >> people use more than once a week. >> anybody for a candidate of $2,000 would use it. apple's tim cook was on npr yesterday pointing to the

devaluation of the chinese yuan as a reason for slower sales in china. now, obviously, the currency is down in value and had a sale shortfall in china it is hard to say if that explains the whole thing right? what is the currency down? 7% or 8% >> meaningful. >> $70 on a $7,000 phone. >> has to adjust prices lower to deal with this. >> discounts for the high-end phones more than the difference and didn't help obviously making - >> if that is true, the sales should rebound as the currency has recently. >> that head wind goes away. >> trying to make excuses there looking at gucci today, for example, or not? >> i think they think of them as explanations maybe they're trying to deflect the idea of a miscan collatilcuf how to price things. jay fed talking about the

economy today in mississippi what he said next j. tonight a strategist said the rngseain recession is here what that means for the stock market

welcome back fed chair jay powell touting recent encouraging economic dmat at meeting in mississippi today. >> today at the national level shows a strong economy unemployment at a half century low and economic output at a solids pace but we no he prosperity hasn't been felt as much in some areas including rural places >> steve liesman at the event and joins with us the details. steve on the economy did we learn anything new

any extra pivot from the fed chair? >> no, only that he still sees the economy as doing well. i think the base case for the federal reserve stands, which is they see a slowdown coming from north of 3% in 2018 to something like 2.3%, the consensus for the fed. when i hear him say what he just did i don't hear him changing the outlook, only the recession another stop down so that recession is not the base case probability for the fed here. >> steve, you probably don't often go to mississippi to talk about the fed chairman talk a bit about why he is there, what his message is to the local community. >> yeah, you heard a little bit about that in his sound byte there. he is down here putting a spotlight op the issue of the unbanked and the -- [. >> i think we lost him. >> lost steve's mic but hopefully get him back still had the picture.

of course, mike. clearly there on the economy one of the quotes he said, i don't feel the probability of a recession is at all elevated that along the same script as we have had since december, i guess. >> exactly and what's striking is that you know, had he said something like that before all of the signaling about how the patient was the fed was going to be you might see the market take something like that negatively because if he doesn't see the downside risk maybe mosh strict on the rates. >> we have steve back from mississippi. you were talking, steve about the message about the unbanked >> yeah, so one of the ideas is people are -- have problems with poverty in part because they don't have access to banking services there is the people live in banking deserts where there are no branchs they happened to open a branch in this town in 2015 of a company called hope, a community development credit union bringing the first bank atm here in 2015. it's mind boggling though think

about, money moving around the world at the speed of light, apps on phones and people don't have access to basic banking services about one in four americans are either unbanked or underbanked and they think 80s solution so poverty problems getting basic banking services to the poor >> steve, when we see a fed chair make a trip like this, as you say, make various statements as you have just reported, that normal to see this kind of targeted messaging on a more equitable balance, spoopt as opposed to just stating about the economy as a whole >> so, yes on and no wilfred, the federal reserve does oversee the communities, oversee bank's adhereens and keeping to the community reinvestment act, which puts money from banks into poorer areas but powell has been a little bit different. he wanted to bring more of the fed to ordinary people and those sorts of things.

so this is a big deal. this is absolute history there hasn't been a fed chairman in the mississippi delta people are analyzed by the fed chairman -- >> we have lost steve's mic again. apologies for that but we will leave it there steve liesen reporting from mississippi. meantime we have more headlines from active vision earnings josh lipton has been listening on the call and diving into the numbers josh. >> which will of be, the conference call going on right now. and the company is announcing here they are reducing the workforce by about 8%, the company saying at last count they had about 9,800 employees globally activision saying on the call they had record financial results in '18 but didn't achieve the player investment goals they set and 2019 is requiring significant changes of which job cuts are obviously part of that back to you.

>> okay josh thanks. the stock up and down after hours currently at 1% up after the break we checkn ion the other big after hours movers don't go anywhere. we're back in a couple much minutes. state of the art technologyt makes it brilliant. the visionary lexus nx. lease the 2019 nx 300 for $359 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

. let's get a check on

headlines making news after hours. activision volume active after et beating and earnings on missing. and full first quarter guidance below estimates announcing cutting the works frs by 8%. >> twrip adviser reporting a mixed quarter. mixed on eps monthly visit and apps grew 2% in the quarter but down 4.5%. >> and shares of cloud company akami announcing a new cfo. i have to say mike my favorite quote of the shoet came from dave ellisonen saying this is a tin o fomo market so there is no alternative to stocks. >> right. >> because bond yields are moving lower again and that thing and fomo fear of missing out which summarizing how you feel. >> that's how it comes together. i would say that fear of missing out, we were in the beginning stages that have if that's where

we are at the moment because i think it's only two months ago we were in the fear of losing out mode feeling like the bottom wasn't holding you know, i think we could be getting there in that moment. >> if we are in a tin an fomo moment does that imply we are on the last leg of rally. >> it's hard to see when in force -- those forces are used up at this point i don't think there is no alternative. there is not necessarily an alternate of that's attractive to people relative to equities back when we got tin aire that was 10u6r when you had 10-year treasury yields below 2% but something i looked at the junk bond etf recovered everything from last fall ribbing higher people feel they can grap grab for risk and you can get the extra yield enhancement yew junk debt. >> i wonder the final too deep for the ep of the show but is there too much emphasis put on hope from the fed.

>> yes. >> or if the economy outlook better. >> in a moment when it's good enough given a patient fed and i think that until we get some news that says it's otherwise, that's kind of where we are right now but, again, look at a long-term chart it looks like a strong bounce. >> quick answer on a deep question from mike santelli in 10 seconds. >> he always nails it. >> thanks for watching. >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlook new york city's times square i'm melissa lee traders are tim seymour. karen finerman, tim grasso and guy adami as the markets sore off the lows the signs of life from once thought dead stocks. plus check out chairs of activision the sock got wrecked this year but did it get extra life? macy's the worst performing stock this year but something about the selloff the chairwoman says investors get wrng. she gives the fine print