the commitment that's according to boat makers here. >> it does seem like a retiree hobby. >> absolutely. >> frank holland, thank you. have fun >> that does it for "the closing bell." >> have a good weekend "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee of the tonight on "fast" shipping stocks shudder after a major warning about amazon that could pose a logistical nightmare for the likes of u.p.s. and fedex. we've got the details. plus big box soaring as walmart is set to kick off earnings next week later, game on after getting killed the last couple of months, one trader says one video game stock is about to get new life. we start off with the market soaring on hopes of a trade deal no, your ears are not deceiving you. it seems like everything is

awesome again. the dow is up 444 points today just 4% off its october high so as trade talks are set to resume next week in washington, is it rally on from here what should you be buying? guy adami. >> what a miserable song to lead but it's a long weekend and a friday so i'm going to be energetic and be positive. >> is that real people or machine generated? it doesn't matter. b.k. will speak about this so i don't want to steal his thunder. trade talks, i think a lot of this, 75% was based on the fact that all of a sudden central box which were hawkish six weeks ago have all globally now turned as dovish as possible spigot is back on. i follow the north man trader on twitter and you should as well actually if you think about it, the bear case has been proven because in october, november when this market didn't have a safety net, when the wallendas were on their tight rope without

the net underneath, then you saw some of the things that could go wrong and manifesting the stock price. now things are going wrong in terms of slowing economies, earnings revisions to the downside, but nobody seems to care because, guess what, central banks are dovish and they're going to be the safe net for the market again. >> what do you think got the wallendi wallendas. >> i thought you said caught them. >> i got it, i got it. >> tyight rope walkers. global synchronized dovishness. >> what concerns me is i have been uncharacteristically bullish during this. >> crazy bullish. >> i don't know crazy bullish, but weirdly so it was it was uncomfortable for me but the euphoria today started to concern me. look at what we had. we've had every central bank as guy mentioned to a u-turn and say we're going to be dovish and the european central bank even suggested they might start buying back debt again

maybe the fed is not going to raise rates this year. we've had the shutdown, we've gotten through that. now all of a sudden maybe we're getting somewhere near on a china deal what concerns me is what happens if we don't get a china deal i think you could get a major sell-off on that everything else is priced in so to me i'm starting to take some profits i think the odds are stacked on the favor of the bears at the point. it doesn't mean we're going to all-time lows but we're 18% off the bottom that's a pretty good run up 11% for the year. that's a good year in and of itself you could close the books and be all right. >> i feel like there's a big buffer when it comes to what exactly is a deal. as long as tariffs don't escalate from here, that's as good as the markets expect i don't know if anybody really expects forced technology transfer, things like that to be solved in any way, shape or form with a handshake. >> that's going to be an issue for the next decade. how about the trump put. we all recognize this is part of the dynamic that trump certainly keeps his scorecard here

so i think you have two things first of all, yes, global central banks, et cetera, et cetera and remember, fighting the fed has always been a recipe for disaster i think the other side of this is people have realized while we don't have incredible growth or global synchronized this and that, the world is not falling apart. in fact if you look at europe today, it outperformed european banks, if you follow the etf eufn, that's up about 1% in one session, a little more than that. so the dynamic in the rest of the world not so good, but not awful i think is more what this is so the pain trade is higher. >> i think it's going to be the ultimate sell the news event i agree with b.k., i think guy was there as well. i think we're topee. toppy quite some time. think about it, it's all in the market already 75% at minimum, right? so industrials ran, everything associated with the trade war ran. what didn't run is what i think

you should buy, defensive. >> i'll be clear also. 2800 on the chart is another place you can say it just needed to go here so it gets through 2800. then it may be harder for people to say this is really the point. you can look at that chart and that's the level the last few times -- >> that's where we failed when we thought we had a trade deal done last time. >> and check out the russell 2000, the small caps they haven't broken through their 200-day trading average. they're bumping up against that. remember, it was in august of '18 that the small caps peaked ahead of all the rest of the market so going forward you want to watch the semis. i would argue they're more important for the global economy than even the transportation sector you want to watch russell 2000 if you don't believe -- you don't have to be in the bear camp vix is low, buy some puts, protect your portfolio there's a show coming on right after this that will tell you

how. >> is it concerning that we've had record outflows out of equity markets >> isn't it not surprising that we've had record outflows out of equities >> really? for the last month for the last month while the market is on track, we've had 11 straight weeks of outflows $83 billion coming out of the market while the market has just roared higher. who's buying the market? who is it? index players? >> it could be short covering, it could be people trying to get ahead of the central banks, it could be all of that to your point, where's the support underneath it? that's what concerns me. at some point there's not a lot of gas out there and it doesn't take much for this to stall. i just think you have to be careful. >> the flip side is that the markets have come to these levels with these outflows happening. >> right. >> so there is money on the sidelines theoretically that could go in. so that could be the floor underneath this market rally. >> and look at semis semis have outperformed the market, which we spent a lot of time talking about how great

that's been since the christmas eve low. we do have some expectation that some of this in terms of the china trade war was overdone maybe some of this is first quarter restocking and a look at third quarter which tends to be worse. i just think there are companies out there at all-timehighs tha certainly should have exposure both to the global economy and to the consumer and they are not telling you things are awful i think we got to a place where expectations, where sentiment was so overdone. the fed looked like they were on a crash course for pushing us into the abyss as much as guy doesn't like it because central banks started this whole problem, that's another tv show for us to do at some point the bottom line is like it or not, this is what we have here it's not a terrible problem -- >> the only problem with that is if the fed doesn't pause >> oh, they're pausing they're pausing. >> i agree with you, that's the most important thing in the markets right now is when powell pivoted and powell paused and now we get easy money globally

but if for some reason, some reason he doesn't pause or they're factoring in a rate cut before the next rate hike, if that changes gears, then the market will readjust quickly. >> but the economy will have changed gears and the global conditions will have changed gears. i agree with you if they say we're taking $50 billion off the balance sheet every month without fail, if the economy is strong enough to bring the fed back into play, i think that's something we want. >> we've got industrials leading the way. >> i think that's the question, what do you do on the backdrop of being wrong in terms of the broader market which i think admittedly to a certain extent we all admit to, we have said certain trades work and they have been working energy has now been working for the last six weeks and it seems to continue to work. health care continues to be an outperformer go no further than eli lilly which seems to make an all-time high on every single day

again, although specifically myself, broader market wrong, absolutely we have been right in some of the sectors. i think those sectors continue to work. >> what do you do as the bull who is now a little worried? >> so i take some of the semi conductor exposure off of the table, i take some of the industrial exposure off of the table because i am concerned that you're going to sell the news in this if you want to love something, i love oil here. the way oil is trading and the dynamics going on in the global oil market, anything energy i think you're okay to buy in this environment because it may actually buck the trend. what if we get $75 oil again, right? this was a tax cut when it was down at $50 or $40 what happens at $75? that's another headwind for the consumer if you want to hedge your portfolio, be long oil. >> and if you look at brent, which i do, or you look at crude, it's breaking out therefore, the energy space, still record high short interest looks very interesting in terms of the earnings growth, i think expectations are some of that is overdone to the

downside emerging markets underperformed today. they were down on the day. sometimes you see a little bit of a lag effect but they were leading some of the market back. on a day the rest of the world is rallying on china, europe was sfis significantly higher bottom line, we were overdone. >> you go safety utilities, staples, health care to guy's point i think you go for things that haven't run or exhausted themselves i think they can still go a little higher for the next couple of weeks but you go safety at this point. >> nvidia, we talked about it a lot last night, obviously made a big deal about earnings going forward, that stock did not trade particularly well. opened on the highs, spent the rest of the day trading lower on significant volume if the tape is going to turn, that's probably ground zero. >> it's interesting we're doing this in the market without dan's maga. >> what's that again

>> i don't know, i forget. >> it's catchy. >> microsoft, amazon, google, facebook -- >> alphabet. >> there's no "f" in maga. there's maga i think we could all say without the leadership of big cap, mega cap tech which makes up the lion's share of the qqqs, moving sideways is impressive you've had v plus on these charts from everything else. >> if only we had a hat that could remind us of what maga is, that would be really useful. >> yeah, threw that out. >> check out shares of mattel falling off a cliff as the company issued weak guidance this coming just a few days after the stock saw its best one-day gain in 40 years we'll tell you how to trade it coming up. shipping stocks shuddering after a major warning from amazon paints a grim picture. and this dow has soared back

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after reported weaker-than-expected earnings. industry analysts believe a customer they may lose is amazon fedex warned of an economic slowdown in december xpo shares down 48%, fedex down 26%. u.p.s. which has rallied sharply off the lows is still down almost 10% so are these stocks too fragile to touch here, steve >> if you think that the market is coming in and think global growth is coming in, then they're too fragile. if you think amazon is stealing their lunch, i think that's a misconception. xpo, yes u.p.s. to a greater extent than fed ix if you want to go in one versus all the others, it would be fedex to me. less reliant on amazon. >> but the overall take is that global growth sinks so you don't want to be in any of that? >> there's better ways probably to play global growth over than these because you have that amazon effect. sounds like we're talking about

amazon's impacting everybody. >> we have. >> in this case we know amazon has their own fleet now. they're starting to take over their own shipping so there's a little idiosyncratic risk in buying these. if you want to play global growth, buy cat tractor or boeing or something like that. >> fedex made an all-time high in the beginning of 2018 we're in february now of 2019. the stock was a $275 stock sideways to lower ever since yes, we have bounced since december from 162 to wherever we are now, 179 or so, but valuation is compelling. it's been compelling it's telling a story the market is going up, that's fine when you look under the hood, as they say, i was a mechanic at one point and you remember that. it just doesn't look that good the car might be running okay but you know, you know it's just a matter of time before you blow a gasket. >> guys i rock with louvers,

tinted windows and sheep skins i own fedex and i think it's ridiculously cheap different than steve, i would take the opposite. steve said if you think this is global cyclical, it's a problem. if you think it's amazon, i wouldn't be too worried. guy has pointed out this weakness in fedex. i think some of it has to be are their best days over because logistics is under some pressure so i'm less worried about global cyclical with fedex because their numbers have been fine, albeit with a warning. >> are you more worried about amazon, though >> yeah. >> even though amazon is not -- i could see it with u.p.s. but couldn't see it with fedex fedex is 3% to 5% of the revenue is derived from amazon whereas u.p.s. is 10%. >> these guys have indicated they're not worried at all amazon's news about buying their own fleets has been out there a couple years. >> the stock is reacting every single time. >> what used to affect fedex

every year about amazon now affects it every three months. from shippers to shoppers. the big box stocks breaking out as walmart gears up to report earnings tuesday before the bell how do you feel about walmart? >> i think next week this is likely a sell the news event we've had retail sales come out for december, which was horrible we probably should have expected it because every single company told you something in mid-december happened where every bit of business stopped happening. then we had consumer confidence come out this morning, much better so you started to say, wait a second, maybe there's a rebound. the retailers will probably rebound. the problem you have, though, up had a rally. the question is going to be is that as good as it gets. so if you're in them and get a rally on the earnings, nothing wrong with taking some profit. >> home depot looks to me very interesting on that chart. you busted through the 200-day this was pushed down on housing concerns and all they continue to do is execute and be best in

class in their market share. walmart to me, i think big box has a lot of pressure in terms of way too much competition. walmart has to compete on price. their cost inputs are getting higher and higher on labor and there's too much floor space out there and then there's amazon. i stay away from all those guys. >> valuation is getting a little rich in walmart. if you go back and look, here's a stock that made an all-time high around the same time fedex did. it's bounced the last couple of weeks but in this environment are you paying almost 22 times next year's in unf-- >> we've heard from some many people that they have to spend, that their margins are being flattened because of the competition. >> let's not forget the wage pressures, right minimum wage is going up wage pressure is out there there's potentially some commodity input pressures, inflation going on so on a low margin business like walmart, that's a real killer.

>> walmart already lowered guidance, referenced its flip cart deal. target has been getting a pass target is up over 10% year to date if you have to be here, maybe target. >> for more on what to expect for walmart, head to cnbc.com. i'm melissa lee. here's what else is coming up on "fast. >> shares of mattel are cratering. but should you catch the falling barbie plus, it's been game over for a number of big video game stocks but there's one name in the group that could be about to get a one-up we'lte yhal llou wt that is. more "fast money" still ahead. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade,

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welcome back to "fast money. time for a major buzz kill mattel having its worst day in two decades after the company posted weaker-than-expected guidance shares plunging as much as 20% and this comes after an epic rally for the barbie dream house. just one week ago the stock had its best day since 1976. even with today's declines, the stock is up around 40% year to date tim, this is in your portfolio. >> it is by the way, the worst thing about the barbie dream house was setting that thing up. >> you have your own barbie dream house? >> that's another show yes, of course i have my own, doesn't everybody? what i talked about two days ago or so it seems just like two days ago, barbie was up 15%, 17% fsx in the fourth quarter. how do you explain this output hot wheels and barbie were the sweet spot of that quarter in terms of where the stock is,

you're 11% above where they were when they announced those earnings this is very, very disappointing for a company that continues to give you one step forward, two steps back. >> okay. >> gives me that >> they had an investor day today. when they reported earnings, they must have known about this guidance and why didn't you release that guidance when they reported. >> on february 8th when the stock was close to 12.50 or so, what changed in a week i don't know apparently something changed you weren't buying those gi joes with the kung fu grips now you have to start questioning -- >> the management. >> you're in my head, it's amazing. it's like you reside in my head. >> and that's been the issue with this company. we've had management changes we've had a restart, we've had a refresh over and over again. >> so why do you own the stock >> because i think it's an incredible brand value i think they're starting to do some licensing deals with movies

coming out they have a digital strategy that's been the key to most of these toy companies is getting online, getting digital, becoming part of the video gaming world i don't know how barbie gets into a video game, but i'll be there. >> mattel was this shining star, the one that navigated toys "r" us better than hasbro. it had a lot of levers to pull so when you start to look at the tailwinds, there's much more tailwinds to mattel even with this latest sell-off but i wonder if you can play the hasbro buy off of this because that took it on the chin when mattel was rallying. maybe this is an inverse relationship longer term look at the levels where it rallied for and use that as a stop on mattel. >> i just think they're all challenged at this point in time what do kids play now? they play video games. they're not playing with barbie or hot feels as cool as i used to think they are and tim thinks they are, they're just not playing with

them. >> specifically he plays with his barbie dream house. >> he's a barbie girl in a barbie world. >> setting up that dream house is brutal. the elevator was particularly difficult. >> some dream house. my, my, my the maid's quarter in the dream house too. what a pain. time for the final trade tim seymour. >> look, i think if you've got a story about the economy right now in a place that's lagd, look at the airlines which have been all over the place but delta airlines is best of breed. i think this is a company that continues to have a management team that is very consistent and i think they're lowering costs i like delta airlines here. >> brian kelly. >> speaking of tailwinds, look at the energy sector oil up again xle is another way you can play it. >> steven grasso. >> industrials are up 16% basically year to date utilities are up 5% year to date i think that is going to reverse. when the deal gets done, you're going to see that unwindi utilities, safety trade.

>> do you have a jacket, guy >> i'm coming up on o.a. >> your going to need your jacket for o.a. >> twitter took their medicine a couple of weeks ago. good for twitter i think it goes higher. >> have a great weekend. see you backer he on tuesday "options action" starts right after this

hey there, wee live at the nasdaq in times square on this expiration friday. look who stuck around for "options action," mr. guy adami himself. we've got a big show on deck here's what's coming up. >> stocks are flying high. but dan nathan says there's one stock that may have run a little too far too fast he'll break it down. plus, video game stocks have been glitching, but mike khouw says there's one name that is about to re-up online. he'll tell us what that is and