expense that $200 to the airport? >> a black car is not that much less for a single person so i think that's where they were aiming to get it right around the black car right. >> from laguardia to here is about $55 so it is more. >> but five minutes compared to about an hour is a good time savings. >> we're out of time ro robert, great to see you. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york citiest times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," wall street is waiting with bated breath as a trade deal deadline approaches one top strategist says a deal could unleash a major rally in the markets. she will explain. plus, it's no paradise uk lawmakers calling facebook a digital gangster maybe it's all about the benjamins because the stock is still soaring. first, we start off with walmart, the windfall.

check out shares surging after blowing out its earnings report as its e-commerce business booms. and it's off to the retail races. walmart is up 5% closing in on new highs and setting the pace for its behemoth rival so is walmart your best retail bet and it is a sign the consumer is stronger than you might think? >> there were like three questions there. >> one at a time >> in my opinion the answer is no because simply valuation. it trades dloclose to 22 times forward earnings so in terms of where it is technically and where it is valuationwise, i think it's a little rich. in terms of the quarter, it was fine inventories were up 1.1% year over year. they had sales growth close to 2% that's great for margins but where is your eps growth you're not really seeing it. in terms of what it means for the consumer, remember, the market has rallied back in a

meaningful way over the last month, month and a half. again, i say it all the time, all consumer optimism is is a function of the s&p which has done extraordinarily well. it doesn't mean the consumer is healthy, it just means the consumer will spending if they think everything is okay. >> at the very least it puts to bed the notion that friday's retail sales numbers were actually -- >> that's what it can do if you're a market participant and trying to read the tea leaves you know what, december retail sales numbers were likely a glitch or whatever term you want to use, but look through it and say whatever happened in december, it is likely not sustainable, walmart shows that to you looking at walmart specifically, or to guy's point, the earnings were fine but what's next? they had multiple tailwinds here we had sears closing down, payless shoesource closing down. j.c. penney's is about to fall apart. they also have a boost from their e-commerce business which again can do quite well.

but up off the lows with a reversal today closing on the lows of the day, that concerns b.k. a bit. >> that's what i noticed >> 2% on the close basically >> right it was a little bit of a disappointing close to what i thought were really, really good earnings there was a lot to like here remember, they're also spending, spending, spending, so that's really important we'll see eventually when they spend less that they'll be able to have more fall to the bottom line the thing that's so interesting to me, comparing amazon to walmart, right we know amazon is in some other businesses but on the retail side of the business, i always think that if walmart were to sell a 12-pack of brawny paper towels, they would earn a third of the multiple that amazon would get for selling that same pack of paper towels maybe amazon can do it a little bit better, but it makes no sense to me, this multiple differential okay, we talk about aws as so important to walmart -- to amazon, rather if you create your own amazon

with walmart and microsoft and their cloud, right, and put those kind of multiples on it and maybe you put a little -- they talk about their advertising business growth for am un azon amazon it doesn't come close to where amazon is trading. maybe throw in a little netflix for their amazon prime >> so basket mimicking -- >> it's a third of where amazon is trading. >> i think that's a clever analysis if we did that, you could do the same thing in the auto sector with gm and tesla. unfortunately, i don't know if it's totally linear. i think amazon gets the benefit of the doubtfor the profitability that they could have everybody looks at their ability to take market share at anycos so that's what's impressive. reading walmart and amazon in the same sentence to me is not something we should be doing because i think amazon truly is a technology company i agree with karen, if you layer in cloud and whatnot, there's ways we can come up with that but you are valuing amazon on a

dcf and classic earnings multiple bottom line for me, brian talked about there's competitors falling by the wayside i couldn't see more competition than there's ever been right now for walmart. i think ultimately they're paying the price in the consumable space it's a trillion dollar market space. it's the reason amazon bought whole foods. because you want people coming back over and over again that works because they're going to buy other stuff at what cost >> don't you think there's just as many if not more competitors for amazon everybody and their brother has now got a digital strategy, an e-commerce strategy, whereas amazon has already done it it seems to me if there's competition out there, it's against amazon. >> that's fair, and i think we probably overreacted to the death of every either retailer in the world to say they weren't going to compete with amazon but the bottom line is they're acting like they can't compete with amazon. i don't think it's as simple as other people have a retail strategy and online strategy look at department stores.

they have been amazoned. we spent the last couple of years talking about the next death nell amazon will drop at somebody. >> i liked that noise we played at the top, the horse race i think that's an interesting way of looking at things in terms of the competition, it's not amazon versus walmart, it could be amazon plus walmart against the rest of retail because in fact that's what we have seen. we have seen other retailers have that spend, spend, spend. they're sacrificing margin in order to capture that e-commerce dollar and it comes at a cost. >> so i think you have to be -- you have to have scale to be able to afford to compete. >> these two have scale. >> i'm long target i'm not long walmart actually. to me they have scale. and i think it's working i think there was just a way overreaction to their last earnings release it trades significantly cheaper than walmart i think they have momentum and similar grocery. that's important

you've got to have scale to do that as well but i think that it won't be only amazon as the winner. in terms of valuation, i don't know when that -- when that differential will close, but it just seems crazy to me. >> right target trades probably at 13.5, so what is that, 40% discount or so to where walmart is trading right now. how does that differential close? i think it closed by target rallying its march 5th earnings and by walmart selling off here. i'm not suggesting you put on some funky pair trade but walmart at 22 times is too rich and target is too cheap. they will sort themselves out. also you're buying target after a huge deklincline. this stock has traded significantly the last couple of months >> but what about t.j. maxx. i know it's not exactly apples to apples with walmart and amazon, but they have executed

in good and bad markets. if i look forward and there's uncertainly about what the economy is going to do, if there's an inventory glut, that's coming to t.j. maxx during good times they executed. plus the way that the stock is trading, i've got a good stop-up point and risk/reward. >> what if new tariffs come into play what happens in the space? >> let's talk about retail sales. as much as it's easy to dismiss that number from last week which was awful, and markets rallied back at the end of the day, down 1.7 at the core of that was the number and not only is it a terrible number, but the things that people spend money on at walmart, it was sporting goods, it was kind of durables, things that actually people should be pretty flush right now they're getting paid more. we're at full employment and it wasn't. i don't think it's a one-off

i think we're probably peak consumer i think we're definitely peak labor. it doesn't mean it's falling off a cliff but at what point have these companies been rewarded valuation along the way. >> you think we're peak labor in terms of wages or in terms of employment >> in terms of employment. look, everything i'm hearing from every fed regional survey is there's not enough skilled workers to hire people we're seeing, if anything, i think we're near the end of a long cycle i don't think we're running into recession. >> so wages should rise. >> no. companies are basically foregoing new projects i think in the retail space and in the restaurant space, these higher wages are choking off a lot of people and they're not hiring in fact some of these guys are downsizing i think the labor market, how can it get better than it's got? in terms of wages, i'm happy people are making more money. >> so is that a plus or a minus. >> it's a negative. >> for the retailers, they have to pay their workers more money, but in theory the workers have more money to spending too. >> they have more money for now. again, that retail sales number

included the holiday season. walmart, good for them, included the holiday season where they crushed it online. but overall the health of the consumer, guy, i would imagine you agree with me. i think the consumer is kind of maxed out. i don't think they're falling off a cliff. to say that it's going to get better on multiple, i can't. >> consumer debt now in this country is north of $13 trillion so i think that's closing in on 58% or so of debt-to-gdp that's a huge number nobody wants to talk about it. everybody talks about the balance sheet of the consumer. they're borrowing a lot of money. >> but they're employed, so -- >> that's right, they're employed. >> so why does it matter >> if absolutely matters if the stock market were to ever -- again, you saw what happened in october and november into december. i think people got really scared i think that's one of the reasons the retail sales were so miserable because people stopped spending for fear that the market was collapsing. the fact that it's come back have given people confidence again. if you see another hiccup in the market, you see how quickly people ratchet back.

amazon quickly, pby the way, we have to wait until april for them to report quite frankly, over the last four or five weeks, amazon has been in the 1600 to 1700 range now it's closer to 1600. has not traded particularly well on what's been a pretty decent tape the last month, month and a half that's something to watch. coming up, is the trade deal a done deal? the market seems to think so and a top strategist says we could be on the brink of a major breakout. plus facebook standing strong despite the fall out from its privacy issues catching flak around the world it could be your best chance to buy the stock. we'll explain. later, check out this mystery talk this stock is soaring, up nearly 30% this year. we'll tell you why wall street says it's heading even higher. much more "fast money" after this just looking for pork chops. you're searching for something more... ...red-blooded. right this way.

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want more from your entejust say teach me more. into your xfinice remote to discover all sorts of tips and tricks in x1. can i find my wifi password? just ask. [ ding ] show me my wifi password. hey now! [ ding ] you can even troubleshoot, learn new voice commands and much more. clean my daughter's room. [ ding ] oh, it won't do that. welp, someone should. just say "teach me more" into your voice remote and see how you can have an even better x1 experience. simple. easy. awesome. welcome back facebook feeling the heat after the release of an investigative report by uk lawmakers calling the social media company digital gangster the infamous cambridge analytica data scandal last year

early facebook investor roger mcnamee also weighing in earlier today. >> if you believe there isn't going to be any kind of regulatory pressure on the company, you know, the uk thing is just talk, right? it's not actual change if that's the worst of it, then the stock is absolutely priced properly you know, may even still be a value here >> shares of facebook ending flat today, but are up 24% this year so will regulation become just a reality? is it just tough tech talk karen, is this a concern of yours here >> it's sort of a concern, but i mean when you look at the stock, when you look at the earnings they put up and look at where the stock is trading, right, as we know it's sort of the poster boy for bad behavior for social media. however, i think that's getting to be an old story now we've seen some -- we saw the eu gdpr. could we see something in the uk yes. could we see something here? we could that will be hard for congress

to get together and do some legislation there but it could happen it absolutely could happen of the all of that, though, i think is priced in already if we knew with certainty how much they would have to pay or what regulation would cost, let's say fines instead of regulation, then i think the stock would lift a lot i think it's priced in and i think them being the poster child for bad behavior is starting to fade as a story. that's been weighing on the stock. >> are you comfortable, karen, with your sense of understanding what the costs are going to be for these guys to continue to basically make their platforms safe >> no, but i think the market is giving them an excessive penalty of what the costs could be i think it would be less i i think the stock would be much higher we've seen their costs go up and up as they add more people that hasn't mattered to the earnings, though that hasn't mattered. >> but a company that can't tell you what their costs are is a company that's going to trade at a discount. >> it does. >> oh, she thinks it already does >> i think it does for this kind of growth, for

this kind of -- for this kind of business, it absolutely trades at a discount. >> and it traded at a discount for two years. i would argue even before some of the worst of the news happened we have not seen any material fall-off in terms of their ad revenue or usership of the platform we know they're trying also to change their metrics how are we looking at facebook let's face it, if anyone can blow you away with their sheer numbers, facebook is not going away quietly what multiple do you want to put on a management team that every time seems to be chasing the news flow. every time they're telling us they're sorry. every time they tell us they don't know what it will cost and they'll get back to us >> i think it can outperform we've seen the earnings that have done pretty well. the biggest catalyst and/or risk for facebook right now is the integration of the different platforms of whatsapp, instagram and facebook if they can execute on that and

increase their metrics, that might be really good then the stock is underpriced and/or undervalued if they don't execute on it and all of a sudden they start losing users or using losers, but the point is they start losing users on whatsapp or any of these because people don't want to log onto facebook, that could be a problem so i think there's a lot of outperformance in this stock that being said, if they don't do it right there could be a lot of underperformance. it's a good trading stock at this point in time. >> let me ask you a question, tim. if sheryl sandberg were to leave -- >> i like this question. >> i'm not saying it's on the table. if it were to be the case, is that a positive or negative for the stock? >> i think the management team trades at a discount so whatever it is. and she's -- because mark zuckerberg is not going anywhere, he owns the company. >> right. >> even though she's a major stakeholder as well. and i don't really -- i don't

know who's leading the direction and ultimately who should be responsible for the strategy in terms of how they have handled security on their site i don't know if it's her so ultimately who is the person to blame but this management team in aggregate trades at a discount companies that deserve great multiples are ones we give the management team the benefit of the doubt. >> if we out somebody it's got to be sheryl sandberg and not mark zuckerberg. what's the answer to your own question >> i would rather have her there than not. >> if she left, obviously the reason matters if she left, i think the stock goes down. the stock is trading 162, so let's play the game quickly. when zuckerberg testified in front of congress march last yearish, stock was 158 or so so it's effectively a lot of permutations up and down despite what advertisers want, i'm sure many would rather go someplace else, there's no place

else for them to go. but if the news flow continues to work against them, somebody will emerge that will take somewhat of the reins away and i think facebook could trade low again. it hasn't really traded all that great since that 170 print post earnings. >> well, for more on facebook and what is next for the social media giant, head over to c nbz.com. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money. here's what else is coming up. deal or no deal? >> that's what all of wall street is wondering, as the trade deadline with china approaches and one top strategist says the deal could be about to unleash stocks we've got those details. plus -- >> are you seriously talking about video games? >> yes, we are video game stocks are facing their biggest boss yet, fortnite but there's something happening that couldiv ge some of the biggest players a major boost. we will explain when "fast money" returnsguide you

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do you hear that do you hear that clock that is the sound of time ticking towards a trade deal as the s&p 500 inches back to new highs. it looks like the market is pricing in a done deal bob pisani joins us from the nyse with more on that. >> a lot riding on this. in a recent note to clients there was very interesting points he said the market sentiment for a deal has been lifted because president trump is expected to meet with chinese president xi jinping toward the end of march. the president recently said there was a very good chance of

reaching a deal. that's important what about that march 1st deadline the market seems comfortable that the deadline will be pushed back with tariffs remaining at the 10% level. now, what if it's not comfortable? what happens with the market here it's not comfortable with the prospects of no deal or an immediate increase in tariffs to say 25%? christina hooper from invesco said that, quote, if talks fail and additional tariffs are applied, stocks could fall through their december 24th lows yikes. so how long do the markets get strung along on all this a mid-march meeting with an announcement with some framework of reforms with intellectual rights, enforcement and technology transfer rules was a strong possibility, but a real deal, a complete deal? expect the second deadline on may 1st or june 1st for a broader agreement. but he says it's possible tariffs could be in effect through the 2020 election. that's not good.

in the meantime, the markets are roaring. the internals are really strong. the breadth has been advancing almost every day since the december 24th bottom new highs are expanding. selling pressure is low. the dow is riding an eight-week win streak it's all looking really good right now. the zs&p 500 is close to breakig that major downturn when it closed at 2790 we closed today at 2779, that's a few points shy of recovering all those december losses. but many strategists are cautious now because the good news of trade talk momentum, the fed on hold and strong market momentum has been yoffset by slower global growth in china and the uk generally that's not positive for the markets. back to you, melissa. >> all right, bob, thank you bob pisani at the nyse here's the question. have the markets priced in a

trade deal >> i think it's largely priced in a trade deal. we've had a tremendous rally off the bottom as long as they're moving the ball forward and put some kind of wire frame around what this deal will look like, i think it's going to be okay for the market what was interesting today is there was some headlines out there that as part of the deal, they negotiate that the rmb, the yuan would not rise or they wouldn't devalue the yuan. that would put a lid on the dollar that is actually very positive so while i am cautious that we could have a sell the news event given what we know, if you get something like a weak dollar event, that would be very positive, something the market hasn't priced in yet other than that, i think most of it's priced in and i'd be concerned about a sell the news. >> what i think is interesting about this calculus is that you have a fed that's also during this time basically stepped to the sideline that was the most important dynamic, to be clear so we got a fed boost in the middle of waiting for a deal and i would argue that the fed

took the life out of this deal if i look at the stocks most affected by the talk of trade, so industrials, some of the commodity stocks, i would argue they have not priced it all back in emerging markets as merkd by as the eem, for example during this time we've reassessed global economy, reassessed global growth and that's the problem with this analysis now industrials have outperformed the s&p by 650 basis points december 24th and that's a pretty good outperformance. >> if we do get a deal, that raises the question, does the fed step back in if the fed has stemmpped to the sidelines in this period -- >> no shot. >> not right away. >> you'd have to see -- i frankly think the fed will announce they'll tolerate higher inflation. i think they'll target 3% and 4% inflation. i think it's going to be an awful long time before the fed steps back in. >> our next guest says a trade deal is not all priced in. a strong trade deal could unleash a market rally here. let's bring in the head of

u.s.ic quit strategy at bank of america merrill lynch. welcome back, savita. >> thanks. >> a deal means a real deal. >> i would agree with you that kind of a partial deal, which is no new tariffs but we don't roll back any of 2018 tariffs, that's largely priced in. i would sell the news on that one. i think the market might sell off a little bit but if we get the real deal. so this is where you roll back the tariffs from 2018, which i don't think is priced into the market, that would add at least one or two percentage points of earnings growth that's not in the numbers. then you also get this huge lift from the multiple. you know what i think is really interesting is that ever since february, we've noticed that cap ex guidance has started to come down pretty dramatically, so i think all of the animal spirits that were negative for the last 12 months could flip back to positive you could see growth trends

resume, et cetera. but that's predicated on the assumption that we get full deal so we get a rollback of 2018 tariffs, we get some sort of agreement and enforcement of intellectual property. the landscape on intellectual property and i think this whole trade story is about tech. i mean to me it's not about soybeans, this is about technology so i think that might be the most important piece of the puzzle is if we start to see some moving forward on intellectual property agreements. >> so this real deal scenario yields up 5% to 10% on the s&p from here basically? >> exactly and that's basically kind of the rough math nothing is ever perfect in this world, but the rough math here is that you get a 1% to 2% earnings boost and then the multiple compression that we saw from february of last year to now reversed essentially >> under that scenario, i'll ask

you the question, is it possible that the fed steps back in and does that then box the markets in the process >> it's sort of these counterbalancing forces. i think the fed could tighten. the fed could hike in the face of better growth i think the market would actually be able to tolerate that i think that we've had a market environment where everyone is spooked by tightening from super low levels but let's remember where interest rates are they're in like the lowest tenth percentile right now interest rates are really low. you know, 25 basis points higher isn't going to ruin the corporate balance sheet of your average s&p company, right so i think that if we get to a point where some of this-- the trade friction is resolved, we have a healthier economy, we have companies starting to spend on cap ex, all the animal spirits unwind again, the fed can actually tighten without totally destroying the markets

>> quickly, savita, the market seems to think when president trump is ready to make a deal, there's a deal to be made. are we underestimating the resolve of the chinese >> well, the chinese have a much longer time horizon than trump does, so that is -- that's certainly a point of contention. i think what this comes down to is who's going to be the next tech superpower. and that's a much bigger issue than whether we raise prices on china imports. >> but how do they solve that, because it sounds like you think that they could get there. >> we think they could make progress towards that and that's the goal on the u.s. side. but, you know, you're right, it's not a clear-cut process, it's a messy ongoing process i think if we start to hear noises that they're making any sort of progress on tech and intellectual property, that would be seen as a huge positive for the market. >> where do you think the best

risk/reward is to go to? >> i like industrials still, even though they rallied pretty significantly. i think industrials is a sector that was basically pricing in full-scale trade war and a recession, like kind of everything bad by the end of last year. the other thing that's interesting about industrials, if you look at the ownership of industrials by your professional investors, your mutual funds and hedge funds, it is almost as hated as it's ever been. nobody wants to touch industrials. i think now they're starting to be more interested, but there's not a lot of positioning risk. and the sector is basically pricing in really, really weak growth so if we avoid a recession and we avoid a trade war, i still think there's upside risk to the sector. >> your year-ending target is 2900 so where does it fall in terms of your scenarios for trade? >> so our year-ending target is

the medium solution, not the real deal. no new tariffs going forward companies can start planning again after living in this uncertain world and that moves earnings higher. what's also interesting is earnings expectations right now for the full year are about 4% i mean that's really low relative to the average expectations of analysts at this point. so i don't think that's a bad thing. what we've noticed is when expectations are really low, that's generally when the market actually does really well and it surprises to the upside. so i think that there are a lot of reasons to be bullish right now. >> great to see you. thanks for coming by positioning is very important. positioning in terms the markets overall, positioning in terms of sectors, like the industrials. >> and she's right to mention it broadly. so you step back and get granular boeing went from 380 an all-time high to sub-300. in a month, month and a half, the stock is now $416. think about the move boeing has

had. so again, boeing is telling you maybe they are to b.k.'s point maybe a lot of this is priced in i'm not sure my point is i'm not certain. we all seem to think when president trump is ready to make a deal, a deal is there to be made i'm not sure that's the case. >> i think if there's a deal something the market is thinking about, i don't think the market is thinking about a rollback of tariffs and a full tech deal that to me seems really aggressive not saying it can't happen -- >> you're just saying my march 1st. >> i would even say mid-year but if we're moving in that direction, i think it's positive to me there's some kind of pullback coming here we priced a lot of this in i'd much rather be a buyer when the deal falls through or the fed does a little bit of a scare like hey, maybe we'll come back in the market and get a little froth off of this market. >> we're going to need a lot more inflation for the fed to do

anything value has outperformed growth and that's part of our amazon discussion i should have brought that up, silly me i think you see industrials outperform and those valuations that make sense. still ahead, stocks have soared off the lows. how do you know if you can trust this rally guy will break down the difference between a bull trap and a bull run. plus activision's big sports event kicking off with a cool $5 million prize. we'll bring yothe lastu te much more "fast" right after this -i call it my comfortable future plan. -it's our confident forever plan. -welcome to our complete freedom plan.

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welcome back to "fast money. activision looking for a win as the stock is down nearly 47% from its october highs it's overwatch league season kicking off and touting a $5 million prize pool let's get to josh lipton in san francisco with the details hey, josh. >> melissa, it's a date video game fans have marked on their calendars. the start of a new season of activision blizzards overwatch league 20 teams of video game players competing for a prize pool totaling $5 million. activision is capitalizing on that red-hot trend of e-sports which will attract an audience of 454 million this year and

revenue will grow nearly 30% to more than $1 billion sponsors for the overwatch league include coca-cola, toileta atoilet -- toyota and intel select games will air on abc, espn2 and disney xd. we asked the league's commissioner whether it would be smart to offer the game itself for free after all wouldn't that mean that many more gamers playing and tuning in to watch the competition. >> we think the business model we have at overwatch is the right business model for the game to create the right player experience all of the content and additional maps and heroes is free so that there's a great ongoing experience for our players. >> now, collin sebastian says this is a bright spot as the company deals with challenges of its own. it announced layoffs of 800 people sebastian says this league is

not financially material for activision right now, but it's a real long-term opportunity, he says he argues it's the best direct way for investors to play the e-sports theme, at least here in the west more so than taketwo or ea which finished in the red today. they're up 30% so far this year. >> josh, did you say 454 million viewers for this >> that's right. that's right that's according to new vizoo w said the global audience is 454 million. that would be a jump of 15%. >> but that's overall e-sports, not this particular competition. >> that's correct. that is overall e-sports, correct. >> josh, thanks. josh lipton in san francisco so is e-sports enough for activision, tim? >> the competition is insane ultimately you're only as good as your last release the valuations, if you look at atbi, you're somewhere arou around 17, 18 times. the question is really how

relevant are they? the stock has grinding lower the last three months. i'm not sure what will break it out of this range. ea we've seen the last couple of days you got news on the new release. >> josh mentioned some of the channels this will be aired on. >> guy mentioned earlier in the show talking about facebook, until advertisers find someplace to go, then facebook is okay well, 455 million viewers with the demographic that you want to me seems like you want to buy disney on this it's going to be playing on disney xd, on espn2. the problems perhaps with espn are behind them. i think this is a much better way to play the e-sports explosion than trying to get the latest thing. >> this past friday i was on "options action. it was a great show. everybody should watch but mike khouw pointed out a

bearish trade in activision, if you recall yes, valuation is compelling but it has not traded particularly well there's no bounce in the stock i personally think it trades at levels we last saw sometime in 2016, 33.50. conversely, take two, around the same valuation, maybe a little bit more bottomed out at $90 or so on huge volume. if we're playing the game -- >> would you rather. >> apparently we are. >> we are playing alone. >> brian brought up the fact that maybe the media companies are the way to play this they need to be here and they have decided to be here. i agree with him but i would point out this news on espn and disney for overwatch, that's old news i attended one of those events at the barclay center where disney was simulcasting. to counti on this being a drive, we need to see the viewership go

up fortnite is the death nell for everybody. >> i just wonder, you hear that kind of audience and wonder -- >> in total for all e-sports around the world. >> how could they not want to be -- >> not want a piece? >> right >> my point is that for activision it's not. we know that they're televising these games. that was a great story. >> but aren't they a target is what i'm saying? shouldn't they be a target for media companies? >> that's what people are saying >> advertising or for disney >> for the company >> a takeover target. >> to me disney is the perfect person to take over these games because it's just like a movie the problem is, the games that are popular -- >> would you watch >> are you saying i don't already? >> this shirt i just wear on tv. >> coming up, check out shares of freeport mcmoran soaring. we'll tell you what's behind

this move. plus the s&p up 20% so is the bull market back or ts ishi rally just a load of bull. guy will break it down when "fast money" returns it's time for the ultimate sleep number event

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks have gone from one extreme to the other as the s&p has soared off the december lows how do we know it's a bull run or just a plain old bull trap. guy is over at the plasma breaking it down in a segment we like to call the more you know

guy. >> hi, mel i think the most important thing to do is to define the terms i went to school and i understand how this works so let's define bull trap this is phonetics, right, mel? this is a false signal that the declining trending has reversed. listen, i don't think that the declining trend has reversed clearly it has the last couple of weeks but we'll get to that. bull run what's a bull run? conversely, upside momentum is expected to continue a lot of people hoping for that. you know what, they might be right. that's what makes markets. but as we used to say at match game, slide it, earl, and watch this these are my points. reading the rebound. number one, what is the rally predicated on? what is it based on? we had an entire conversation at the beginning of the show about this i think most of this rally off the december 24th has been predicated on the fact that the federal reserve said, hey, you know what, those rate hikes and reducing our balance sheet,

we're just messing with you, it ain't going to happen. i think tim would agree with that as well that's number one. number two, how fast was the recovery pretty darn fast i mean december 24th we saw where the s&p was trading. we've rallied 18% or so in a month and a half that's a pretty significant rally in a small amount of time in my opinion. and number three, and maybe most importantly, are the warning signs being ignored? listen, markets should rally on strong earnings, earnings growth, revenue, revenue growth in my opinion. i think this is rallying on hope that the fed still has its backstop the warning signs are there. i was talking to karen before. 24% of all sovereign bonds in the world now have negative yields that's a warning sign. earnings, i don't know earnings season has been good, bad, on the margins i'd say it's been okay. europe is a mess you see what's going on in china. so i think a lot of it is baked in so for my money, that's how you read the rebound and that's the difference between a bull trap and a bull

run. >> thanks, guy >> oh, and by the way, sorry, i gave you a little chart just because that's what the crack staff wants to do. i mean look at this sucker i mean that's straight up. that's pretty crazy. that's like my iq over the last year anyway, back to you, mel. >> maybe the first part of the chart. you may heard that cnbc has launched an initiative called invest in you, ready, set, grow. it's part of a new partnership we have with acorns, a savings and investment app investment and education is important here at "fast money" so given all that, who's got a question for guy >> i do, i do. guy, you know it's really hard to be a market timer, so let's say you're unsure about when to get in, when to get out. if yyou don't want to be a marke timer, what do you do that you're concerned you're in a bull trap? >> great question. this show obviously tries to focus on trading trading is a day-to-day thing. investing is obviously a lot more long term so you don't have to worry about the timing of the

whole thing. in my opinion now, and quite frankly you know i've been wrong now for at least the last 200 s&p points but what i'll say is all the things i look at indicate that the market is overbought on many different metrics. it's not playing out, but that's what i look at so if i were enjoying this run from december 24th with the vix now at 15 give or take, i would say to myself it's not a bad time to take some money off the table. my opinion >> all right thanks for that, guy nbc universal and comcast ventures are invested in acorns. for even more financial education, head to the website cnbc.com/investinyou. coming up, freeport macmoran is soaring today we'll tell you if it has more room to run. we'll live from the nasdaq in times square much more "fast money" after this ♪ you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion.

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that's what inspired us to create america's most advanced internet. internet that puts you in charge. that protects what's important. it handles everything, and reaches everywhere. this is beyond wifi, this is xfi. simple. easy. awesome. xfinity, the future of awesome. welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of free motor mcmoran soaring 7% today, up nearly 30% so far in 2019. citi says it could rally another 20% before the end of the year thanks to the value of their core assets and upside potential in copper. so citi says buy b.k., what do you say? >> yeah, i'm with citi on this one. i think you buy it for both the gold and copper reasons. if liyou look at the gold indusr in particular, there's been not a lot of investment in new mines

so there's a potential for a shortage not only that, in an environment where you have a federal reserve and almost every other central bank reinvigorating the economies, potentially going back to a point where they'll tolerate higher inflation, you want to buy things that have limited supply so gold, copper, and that other thing called bitcoin i think you buy them all. >> if you've a believer that global growth is slowing down -- >> i'm not. >> because you're mr. bull b.k. now. >> i'm mr. bull b.k. >> citi is pointing out that you basically have exchange levels at ten-year lows in terms of copper, supply/demand, et cetera that's great just to be clear, i own freeport to treat it as pure copper or gold play is wrong they made some tremendous acquisition plays at the peak. i'll leave that for people to look into those deals. i didn't like those deals. this company probably has upside to about $18, which would be a nice move here breakout at 12.50 for sure

i think the entire resource space look the most interesting. >> is it just a giant trade bet though let's say we get really bad headlines out of trade. >> i think it's a giant inflation bet. that's what i think it is more than a trade bet. >> you think we have inflation >> i think we're going to have higher inflation. >> he's bullish and thinks we have inflation. >> exactly so inflation is okay as long as it's not too much. at some point in time the market will start to decrease earnings expectations because inflation will erode that. but until we get to that point, the mechanics of it should be bullish for the market that is all. >> the big move also making waves among options traders who are looking for ways to play this fresh rally mike khouw is in san francisco to break it all down hey, mike. >> hi there. we saw it three times the average daily call volume in freeport mcmoran it traded over 120,000 contracts today. most active were the april 14 calls. we saw a bloc of 16,500 of

those. a bullish trader was rolling a previous bullish bet from the march 12th calls out and up to the april 14s. that's a bullish bet that is going to be higher than that $14 strike price by at least the 50 plus cents that they paid. that would be an increase of about 10%. they already doubled their money on the calls that they were selling today. so this is something who was bullish prior to this bet. made money and is taking some of those proceeds and pressing that bullish bet further out over the next 60 days. >> guy, since you were a pinch hitter on "options action" last friday, i shall ask you about this action and this trade that mike khouw has outlined. >> you know my love for mike grows. it's exponential growth so i'm in the b.k. camp there's something going on in the metals space to transsent all this mumbo jumbo i'm with mike. >> thanks, mike, for that. for more "options action" the full show friday at 5:30 eastern time up next, final trades.

i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪

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we'll see in march how they did. >> guy adami. >> it's a great show tonight, mel. >> jam packed. >> we do that thing at the smart board we call power pitch. you might want to check out newmont. >> that does it for us we'll see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. don't go "mad money" with jim starts right now my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer the stock market isn't always a friendly place t can be volatile, painful and just downright difficult. there are tons of bi