another big day in terms of earnings a lot of consumer facing names wendy's, domino's, nor wewegian cruise lines. >> hp and dropbox after the close tomorrow as well that does it for "the closing bell" today. thanks for watching. morgan, thanks for joining us. "fast money" starts now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," the man who moves markets is mac marko kolanovic says we are moving higher from here. plus the parade of tesla executives marching out the front door continues what does that mean for the stock? we've got the details. first we start off with the material world materials. the best performing sector today and in the past week as the whole commodity complex is on

fire gold hitting its highest level in a year, copper and paladium also even the fed said that growth here in the u.s. will slow in 2019 why are we seeing materials rally? what could this meanfor the markets, guy >> i think a couple of different reasons. people think, yeah, we're at this slowdown but the time to buy these stocks are during the slowdown hoping for the reacceleration which could come on the back of a china deal, which quite frankly i don't think is coming any time soon. gold market has been -- had a bid to it now for the last month, month and a half. a stock hitting its highest level of the last year there's clearly something going on i happen to think the move in gold is predicated on the fact that central banks globally have

done more than global banks. >> i think the lack of volatility is pushing people into riskier assets. if you look at bond volatility, between what happened in the last six years effectively, we're at october 4th levels on the vix right now but more importantly, bond vol, we've had the biggest decline since 2013 what that does is allows people to move out the risk curve the bottom line is thisis positioning. funds have been putting more of these trades on in a lower volatility environment and the dollar has been sideways we basically have a green light which says the fed cannot be raising rates any time soon. that's great for commodity rates and the sense is they'll be bullish. >> are you talking about going into material stocks or talking about the commodities or both? >> material stocks that's what people are doing the commodities have been range-bound but crude broke out.

>> material stocks and some of the energy stocks. we're seeing a bid more and more across that entire area. one of the ads i had today was tech resources i got out of freeport mack, i'm probably out way too early but you've still got to look at some of these energy names as well i look at energy and continually see more option paper coming into those various names, all levels the high beta names, the xle, the exxons, the cbe and some of these names that aren't looked at very often and some of these names moving to the upside we're seeing more and more moving to this i'm not sure why whatever it might be, it could be the china play, saying that's the space that's going to react because it hasn't enough yet but we're seeinga lot of paper out there. >> karen. >> i don't have any direct material exposure. i'm very confused by the tea leaves you've got a lot of completely

diametrically opposed pieces of data we have this big commodity rally. that's sort of interesting, right? however, look at where rates are. look at where inflation is look how dovish the fed believes they need to be, not only here but around the world and then we've got stocks that are really anticipating a deal with china, which i actually believe will happen but a lot of those things don't make sense to me they don't go together maybe it's people thinking it will turn. it's terrible now, but it will turn eventually. i don't know what to make of it to be honest. >> if you think stocks should go higher, why should you believe in a rally of gold of all things >> that's the conundrum. there are a lot of diametrically opposed -- a lot of things that don't make sense i think gold is moving higher for a very specific reason i think the gold market is catching on to the fact that our central bank has done an about-face as have central banks around the world and they're finding safety in gold when you see newmont mining go

2.5% to 3% every day, i think it's telling you something i do think exxonmobil has more upside and we've talked about that if you look at it, it's still in a pretty significant downtrend since the end of last year this stock could trade up to 82 and still be in a significant downtrend. i think that's what's going to happen. >> in terms of central banks finding safety gold, they want to diversify away from volatility >> central banks are buying gold at a record pace over the last couple of months there's something to that. >> 24% of the global bond yields out there are negative territory. central banks have to do what they have to do. sneaky haircut by guy adami, by the way. emerging markets are continuing to outperform. we're challenging back up to the 200-day. if i was the chart guy tonight, i would tell you u.s. steel is challenging to push north of the

200-day for the first time to the upside since back in 2017. all these assets traded down they have consolidated and r rebuilt a case which is something we haven't seen in two years. >> to tim's case, the eem hits almost every single day and they have been mostly correct upside bullish activity. >> that makes sense. it's one of the most crowded trades on wall street. >> and yet it still continues to work if you go back just a couple of weeks and look at where it was and look at the options where people have been betting on this and they have been right they just continue to roll, mel. you see guys taking profits but rolling up and rolling out and still looking for that same trade. >> it's odd to me. if all that is so, and it seems to be, right, why do we have a 10-year that's here? something's amiss. i don't know what it is. >> you can't have stocks and bonds doing what they're both doing here bonds are telling you there's something very, very wrong

stocks are telling you there's something skvery, very right this takes you back to times when equities have been the only game in town. >> putting all that together, i like what i own. i've got to own some puts because the vix is relatively low. maybe something is really wrong, i don't know, but i need some protection. >> are you leaning bullish >> i do. >> you raise a good point in terms of volatility. the vix is so low right now. >> it's come down from that area in late december we talked about it in the 30s. i expect it to be above 20 here it is 14, 15, something like that. but we have crossed a lot of different barriers in front of us that we've done okay on the government shutdown, that's no longer here the fed. people are no longer worried about what's going on with the fed. earnings season. when you see some beats and revenue and some of the guidance coming out of some of these very big names, it sort of gets everybody sort of riled up i've got to get myself back in here

i see value -- >> you mean bullish as well. despite what the bond market is telling you and what the gold market may or may not be forecasting. >> i have flipped, though. i sold probably half my stock positions. at one point in time just a week or two ago, i had seven option positions total. now i have 17. what changed for me? volatility, as it has completely fallen out, when you buy stocks and volatility is high, you're giving yourself a great opportunity in front of you and giving yourself protection to the downside now i think because volatility is so much lower, you can either buy protection or position yourself in the options and take the stock off. >> are you basically in the same positions except expressing those positions in options >> i think i've found myself more and more leaning towards energy and tech lately i have a lot more semis than i ever had before. >> where are you in terms of this conundrum. >> i'm the other side. i grew up with a wall street what can go wrong will go wrong. i'm just a half empty person

that's the way i'm wired think about u.s. steel before president trump started talking about tariffs, which was basically march or so of last year, this was a $45 stock in an environment where the steel business arguably had never been in a better place. the steel business hasn't fallen off a cliff. the stock has been cut in half if there's some semblance of a deal, it stands to reason people are trying to get in front of it which is why i think u.s. steel is rallying. >> the energy sector is as short as it's been ever. you have a case where positioning is absolutely your friend the other part is semis have outperformed the s&p semis are up almost 25% this year they have crushed the s&p. they have been outperforming since effectively november 1 what does that tell you about emerging markets, for the most cyclical, for the most resources? they have been catching up and there's more to do. >> our next guest says do not fade this rally. let's bring in marko kolanovic

it's great to have you. >> thank you, melissa. >> we've been debating this puzzle on the desk why are markets going up at this point and are markets going to continue to rally even in the face of what seems to be a global synchronized slowdown >> so markets are going higher for one because basically the end of december position was rock bottom, sort of all-time bottom so people did not own any risk new year comes and people want to put money to work first they want to cover the shorts there was a lot of shorting back in december. so some short covering, gradually putting money to work. i said the fed has turned. november 16, november 28, and they continue to reinforce that message so there is a shift. we are potentially getting closer to a trade deal and declining volatility declining volatility is basically pushing people out on a risk curve some of them more just people

are more comfortable if the market doesn't come up and down 5% every day, people are willing to put on more risk. so that's a confidence of factors. we have been calling for that. obviously we had a very strong rally january and february so far, so we do not think it can continue at that pace. we do not think that it can go up every day but we do think it can go up more because positioning is relatively low. >> how will you know when positioning has reached what it should be? >> so generally, generally it does overshoot as well so we can look at the percentiles. you can look debata of fund performance. you can look at the sort of net or gross balances in prime brokerage. so the simplest one is to look debata of various hedge fund strategies that beta is now somewhere between the 20th and 30th percentile, so call it lowest third. a few weeks back it was pretty

much close to zero, so it's actually ticking up higher so it's picking up the pace. but we would be worried when it reaches 70th and 80th percentile right now we can still say it's below average. so act some external shock, something unexpected, the tendency of market would be to go higher. and again that doesn't mean that it goes up every single day or certainly this pace. we cannot annualize this pace, let's be honest, but we think it can still move higher. >> 24% of sovereign bonds now negative yields. does that mean anything or should we look past that >> well, low equity positioning generally means high bond positioning. if you look at some of the vol sensitive investors, their positioning is very low. generally that means holding bonds is pretty high same thing with trend. the trend in equity is just negative it's just turning positive and on the bond side it's very positive so you have a lot of investors long bonds so we think this rotation will

happen that's one reason why the bonds are not reacting the second is central banks did turn a bit more dovish, so that keeps a little bit on yields. >> marko, for a humble guy who's usually right and shouldn't have to be humble you've been on the show and made some major calls i'm reading your note and you sounding like people thought our level of 3,000 was outlandish and you point to where you were right there. the reason i bring that up because i would read from that that the market is still not positioned in this direction and the pain trade is still higher talk about that. >> i think so. i think so the positioning is the indicator of that. obviously we need to see progress on a trade with china so they're the obvious real catalyst now we do give preference to positioning and liquidity metrics, two fundamentals. we have a lot of historical examples for instance, in 2016, pretty much a whole year's earnings were lower, lower, lower and the

market was going higher, higher, higher so you can have this especially with a tail wind from central banks so we think it can go higher. >> how do you think about the slowdown happening around the world and at what point do you say the slowdown we're seeing around the world affects the u.s. economy to the point that it oversides this very conservative positioning. >> we are taking a bit of a bet or a view that recession will not happen in the u.s. the way we look at the world, basically u.s. within the economy still has some momentum. it's slowing down but we think it's way above the stall speed so we think the u.s. can hold the cycle for maybe a few more quarters china has been slowing down, but china is doing a lot of measures, fiscal, monetary, regulatory so we are seeing some signs of inflection in china. again, it's a little bit of a leap of faith that we think china will make this turn in, let's say, one quarter or two

quarter. so u.s. momentum will sustain us until china makes a turn that buffers europe which is disappointed it's slowing down more than we expected now, again, trade war is a big variable here because i think trade war hits u.s., hits china, suddenly you lose this pillar europe, there's a lot of political issues, brexit, elections, and so it boils down really unfortunate to this trade deal if this trade deal for some reason is falling apart, we would probably have to change our view entirely. >> and what about eu trade, is that in there as well? >> you mean eu cars, tariffs, stuff like that? >> yes >> you know, i don't have a very strong view. my view is that we have election year next year and i think we're foolish to kind of provoke serious market turmoil at this point, but you never now so we're kind of watching it a little bit brexit and these car tariffs, we got a little

tired of following it every day so we're taking a leap of faith. between u.s. and china, we can weather the psych sglcycle. >> marko, thanks for coming by. to tim's point, marko has been right so who am i to argue with him technology is a place that's been pretty safe you look at a name like xilinx they raised their price target, so there's still room for growth in a lot of these tech names, particularly some of these semis that we rarely talk about. >> that's where i've got even more exposure. i grabbed some xilinx. i actually like that company a lot. amd as well, intel as well i've added to that position. i think there are different parts of technology that are really interesting and some are very cheap they're still well off highs when you look at a lot of these

various names, they are not near the highs that they have been. so they have had a great run back, they trade cheap and still have room to the upside. >> but you have to lean bullish in terms of how you view the globe and you have to lean bullish in terms of how the u.s./china trade deal will work out. >> no doubt that is fully tied in. >> i'd make an argument that semis are about 2% away from -- tomorrow there are pmis across europe and japan and they're not going to be good so for every two steps forward, you have at least one back watch out for bad numbers tomorrow. coming up, a winning streak warning. stocks on track for nine weeks of gains in a row. if history is in indication, the chart master says there might be trouble ahead. plus, elon musk is still tweeting and executives are heading for the exits. what is really going on? we've got the details. and samsung with a foldable

phone. we're live from times square in new york city. more "fast money" right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. another pothole added to the already rough road for tesla the company's general counsel departing after just two months on the job he's the layest in an executive exodus that was extended into this year including the former cfo who announced his resignation a month ago. elon musk's tweets are in question once again after he tweeted late last night saying the automaker would produce around 500,000 vehicles this year then he clarified the numbers and stated the total deliveries were at 400,000 for this year. remember the s.e.c. ordered the company to monitor and review musk's tweets following the infamous funding secured tweet this past august tesla, by the way, is down 9% this year. so the question here is has anything really changed? does the board seem to have any sort of control over the tweetage of elon musk? >> i hope not, otherwise they would not have allowed him to

tweet that and then tweet a correction so i think the board has no control whatsoever over him. >> does he have control over himself? >> that's a great question also. i don't know i think maybe larry ellison, if you think about who on the board would be in a position to have some sway over elon. to me it would be larry ellison, not the new chairwoman of the board, right i think that ellison would -- he owns a billion dollars worth of stock, he's built a huge company himself, he's been a brash kind of executive all the things that musk would think -- that would appeal to him. but it seems to me the board has no control over him. to me the board's number one most important job is hiring and firing the ceo, and i don't think they should fire the ceo this is what you got when you buy tess larla -- >> here's the question, would the stock go up or down if ceo elon musk were removed. >> it would go down. >> i don't think the stock's

price is indicative of anything here. >> really? >> let's be clear. two big shareholders have cut their shares in half the saudis have hedged out of it last night's tweet panic was no different from anything we've ever seen and it's a ceo that seems like he's unhinged. >> why is that a tweet panic >> why is he out there at all doing that. >> the stock wouldn't collapse if he left >> we saw during the indictment period, or whatever, the charges period, that he has a major impact on the stock. my point is tesla's stock price does not reflect reality in the last two weeks we had the 10k come out we had them extend and a technical default on a term loan you can think what you want but i'm surprised a lot more people aren't responding to this because in fact nobody has downgraded the stock at all. >> i think katherine wood, who sat right here was talking about that, one of the shareholders. now, she has trimmed back some but i think it's interesting because she talked about two

things that really stand out forget the tweets. >> why forget it, though >> what did the stock do today it didn't do anything. >> but should the ceo be out there changing his tune and putting out false data. >> 100% he shouldn't be doing that let's forget that because the impact is getting less and less and less from the tweets, very much like the president. however, she talked about the battery cells, and how unique they are to tesla. that's one thing so that is something different everybody says, well, everybody makes electric vehicles and the rest of that the other thing you brought up, this autonomous billions of miles of data that they have got, that has a value. a $52 billion company, at some point in time you always wonder is this company anything that's ever for sale. is this something that somebody else would want to buy all of a sudden you have to get rid of elon musk, and i think that's something that could happen in the uture. for more on tesltesla, headr to cnbc.com. here's what else is coming up on

"fast. >> sound the alarm. >> the chart master says this market is flashing a warning sign if history is any indication he'll explain what has him so worried. ♪ you've got to know when to hold 'em ♪ ♪ know when to fold 'em >> and samsung is doing just that, unveiling the first-ever foldable phone we'll tell you why you could be holding one soon too much more "fast money" after this this is not a bed.

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carter worth is over at the plasma to break it all down. >> you're right. any instance of great weakness is punctuated by a rally any instance of great strength is punctuated by a setback, a dip, call it what you will this is an unusually symmetrical v. is this the point that it likely presses higher or some sort of giveback let's put this in a statistical context and see what we can see. eight weeks in a row, we're now in the ninth week. we shall see what happens this week if you would go and find all instances where the dow is up eight weeks in a row and gains more than 10%, that's only happened 13 times going back to the 1920s. that's a probability of an owe ku -- occurrence of 0.2% let's look at what's happened in those 13 instances what's happened is as follows.

one week later, down a little bit. two weeks later, down a little bit. three weeks later, down a little more, 1.5% let's keep going one month later, two months later. but the point is that you're likely to have a give-back and it's likely, asever, right about now. we've seen two or three 2% corrections, pull-backs, dips, sell-offs since the lows in december we're set up for that sort of thing now. in terms of really the most important thing is what to buy i'm still very much in the safety camp. i want to talk about utilities now, this is a near perfect uptrend. the entire bull market, which you can see here, from the '09 low. watch if i put in some drawings here what this is is literally perfect. it has bounced off this line repeatedly like clockwork over and over and over and over we have made a new high each

time and it's my bet that we are going to make a new high again before actually the s&p does, if at all now, let's talk about utility as an investment. here going back to the prior bull market peak in '07, utilities relative to the s&p. everyone can say, see, that's the problem, utilities don't keep up because they're low beta, they're a bond proxy but here's the reality if i make these both total return, this is just absolute. now i'm going to switch it to total return and what you have are the really good facts that actually on a total return basis, utilities have paced the s&p with less volatility and less risk i think utilities are as good a place here and now as anything you know where the 10-year yield is it's not signaling good things. >> carter, why don't you come on over to the desk shelby will bring the chair in thank you, shelby. >> you hungry? >> got a snake and a couple of

gummies. >> put those on your pillow. >> you know, we were chatting with bob pisani yesterday and he was just going off a list of all these reasons why this rally looks very strong. the breadth is good, the new highs are great. why does this override -- >> can you keep going without some sort of dip, correction, pullback and this is about where it happens the telling thing is this. if you think about where we are now. today is a wednesday we return to the most critical wednesday of the last six months it was wednesday, october 10th as you know the dow dropped that day 832 points the s&p 100 points it was the worst one-day sell-off since 2011 for tech we've finally gotten back to that level, right? and the reality is that the scare on that day was that rates hit an all-time high for this cycle of 3.26% here we are and rates are much lower and yet the market is still struggling really, the market should be

much higher if you believe in the fed model or your cap m or whatever you want to play around with why aren't stocks? the truth is the damage that was done is substantial. while the ricochet is substantial, it's a little too steep, a little too clever, a little too much of a good thing. >> so you talk about an average returning, i think it was, a month -- >> one week, two weeks -- >> when you're getting into the down 2.25 from where we are now, that's the average. >> right. >> on the wider ends of those -- >> there were one or two that were up of the 13 and the rest were down. so the odds of being up which i didn't include were consistently 30% to 35% odds of being up i think you sell calls there's an options show on friday, you can do that. but the thing is it's hot. a lot of people are quite bullish. >> what does the chart of the 10-year yield look like? >> it's a disaster i think bonds and utilities -- i

think t lchlt is a great buy. there's gold this is the tough part tech had that day, down almost 5% amazon, again, underperforming google underperform. they're just not working maybe they'll come to life but it's got to happen quickly. >> when you look at the qqqs, eight of the last sessions are at the 200-day is that bullish or negative or neither? >> if you have the sell-off and then the recovery, are you sort of not back to where we were in october? it wasn't a particularly good situation in october we had our worst october in a decade and the recovery is -- it makes me think of this, when you're hoping, it's hopeless. >> wow i think he was listening to you. >> he wasn't looking at me. >> when you're hoping, it's hope -- >> when you're hoping, it's hopeless. >> what about when you're hopeless

>> there's hope? >> maybe you sell calls. >> he's fill of great philosophy >> xlu went from 57 before december down to 52. where is it now? 57 that's a pretty significant move for that index in a short period of time. i'm not certain what it says i think to carter's point it says yields continue to go lower. i'll mention this. there was a great "i love lucy" episode -- >> which one i love "i love lucy. >> the friends of the friendless you don't remember that one? >> no. i like the one where she's eating the chocolate off the conveyor belt. >> the burlap dress one. coming up, boston beer buzzing on the back of its earnings report. it's been on a tear this yore but will the cannabis deal a

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check out shares of tilray soaring. earlier today in "power lunch" the ceo told me how the deal will put it ahead in the race to get cbd products on the shelves. >> you think about their supply chain. they have relationships with 30,000 acres of hemp grown by farmers. they have a state-of-the-art processing facility where they make these products and they have a distribution channel through 13,000 of the largest retailers in the u.s and our intent is to use that supply chain to help accelerate the cbd products that we will introduce by this summer through that same supply chain all of the retailers are facing demand to supply and sell cbd products, and so this helps us speed up that process. >> we need to turn to our cannabis king, tim seymour, about this cbd rush and whether there will be a lot more deals now with the passing of the farm

bill. >> you have to give tilray and brendan kennedy a lot of credit for not only taking a strategic plan going at all the different verticals in the cannabis sector these guys have built brands or want to build brands or are in the middle of the building brands so c bchbd mean they can take tm and start using them they partnered with big beer, partnered with big pharma, so good for them. this is a cbg story. hemp has rushed ahead on some level. it's not a bigger market but on the wellness market is clearly is and that's something that people -- that perception needs no change. that's happening right now and it needs some slight adjustment on the legal side. >> and there are hemp products he brought many of them. hemp hearts and hemp granola but there's also cbd food products which are to come still. pete, you're familiar with that. >> which could be an absolutely huge business, i think, going

forward. there's a lot of approval still. you guys had a great conversation about that whole thing today. i think when you're talking about this whole topic, he was looking for distribution that was a big part of what today's deal was. >> you can finding these products in whole foods and trader joe's. >> a couple thousand different places across the united states and canada there's a lot to be said for what this move really was. >> i find it curious, they do a $300 million deal, their stock goes up by $300 million. i don't know, it seems a little like funny money to me in some way. i don't know it is that valuable that they could do that. >> i was actually surprised that they used cash a lot of people said they should just be using their shares as currency so good for the -- that which was acquired, but also the fact that the company is putting cash to work when everyone thinks that they just have shares to work with. >> quickly tangentially -- >> that's abig word for you. >> tangentially.

consolati constellation brands, pretty bad day. i mention it because i think the cannabis industry will dig into what's going on in the spirits and beer space and despite the fact that constellation has a big investment, these stocks are in trouble. i think it's manifesting itself in stz. retail in the spotlight as investors await a flood of earnings reports the next couple of weeks. plus samsung unveiling its new foldable phone at an event in california today. with the nearly $2,000 price tag, will the phone live up to nde hype fi out when "fast money" returns. pork chops. you're searching for something more... ...red-blooded. right this way. you thirst for adrenaline, you hunger for raw power. well, you've come to the right place. the road is yours, dig in.

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risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. welcome back to "fast money. samsung unveiling its new smartphones today hoping to recharge sales, including a glimpse of the highly anticipated foldable smartphone. let's get straight to josh lipton who's at the samsung event in san francisco hi, josh >> so, melissa, i can tell you we're here in the samsung demo room after that keynote ended. everybody flooded down here to check out the new hardware of course a lot of buzz being generated about what you just mentioned there, the foldable phone and what the company refers to as the galaxy fold

here's how this device works when it's folded, 4.ach6 inches unfolded, 7.3 inches two batteries, six cameras, available on april 26. you can understand why there would be a lot of excitement about this device. it's a radical new design against the backdrop of this smartphone market where overall growth as ground to a halt i did catch up with bob o'donnell who was here today he had some questions about the device, questions about the software ask it really work seamlessly with that new hardware as advertised if it didn't, it wouldn't matter how innovative and creative the hardware was then there's the price point it's going to cost you $1,980. i asked o'donnell about that he said listen, it's obviously a luxury product we does think there's going to be a fair number of people who want it.

it's not just samsung pursuing this technology, others are too. you can think of the chinese vendors like huawei also aggressively pursuing this foldable smartphone tech. >> josh, have you actually tried this foldable device and is it such where the screen, there are no visible hinges? it's not like a laptop that's mini that you open, is it more like an actual screen that's continuous and you fold that in half like a piece of paper >> yeah, so they made a lot of -- they emphasized onstage a lot about that hinge and why it was so critical and why it was critical to create this seamless device, this seamless experience unfortunately, they did not make that device available today in the demo room, so we didn't get a chance to take that for a test drive just yet. >> and you can only fold it in half right now >> that's what i saw you're going from 4.6 in your hand when unfolded to 7.3.

>> is it heavy >> again, mel, i didn't get the chance to give it a test drive so tough for me to have too much insight about that just yet. hopefully i'll come back and maybe i'll be able to give you that info. >> i hope so josh, thank you. josh lipton at the samsung event in california. i do want it to fold more than once for $1900? i want to fold it into fourths. >> mel is looking for folds. >> i think the real question for me, i know josh brings up a luxury phone, right? $1,980 now, what is the reasoning behind why somebody would think they need that luxury, and what is the market for that i have questions right away. >> here's a use case if you live on your phone and don't have a computer, you may want a larger screen to view documents or a spread -- that might make that phone a little more functional but still have the small size you can stick it in your pocket. >> when you talk about price point and apple and everybody was so angry at apple on that

most recent release of the different models they talk about a $900 phone, $1,000 phone samsung just released -- i know they have more technology right now, $900 hones, $1,000 phones $1,890 phone you talk about this all the time, but you have really limited yourself when you talk about certain price points, i think, when it comes to all these various devices. >> to be clear, apple gave their downgraded guidance. samsung was down 32% so samsung was significantly worse and they're a more diversified company but they also had the semis exposure. >> didn't i. >> that's why i have i handy dandy ipad here. i don't have to fold anything. >> that folds. >> the ipad is separate from the keyboard the keyboard is an accessory. >> is this all about having a samsung product that's an

aspirational product to have an unbrel umbrella effect on the brand >> mel wants folds she wants folds. >> i want to be able to make a crane out of it. still ahead, walmart seeing a big reversal after the stock ripped on earnings is the turn-around a warning sign for the retail space? we will explain. much more "fast money" still ead. plan plan no matter where you are in life or what your dreams entail, a cfp professional is trained, knowledgeable,

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. welcome back to "fast money. check out the reversal in walmart. today's downturn could spell trouble for the retail trade dan nathan is over at the plasma to break down the options action hey, dan. >> owe xrt, the etf that tracks the retail sector, saw a ton of put activity today it was four times average daily volume there was one large trade that caught my eye. large in contract terms, not exactly in premium terms, but it was a bearish roll when the xrt was trading 45.63, a trader sold to close 15,000 of the march 44 puts at 39 cents and pobuying t open 15,000, the same quantity

of the march 41 puts paying only 7cents for that. what's interesting though is as the xrt found some resistance today, this trader is possibly rolling down for some pro teteco as we head into the bulk of retail earnings the next few weeks. so this looks like a trade to cover that a little bit. i just wantifst want to make on. you guys don't think i watch the show when i'm not on last night i was watching you talk about walmart nobody seemed enthusiastic about what went on there when you think about that stock and the big gap that it had and the reversal closing on the low. and today look at this two-day spau chart. look at the one-year chart of this thing a little bit. it shows this gap. it got within 2% of the all-time high that it made back in november so today closing really on the lows here. this is a kind of nasty head-and-shoulders setup in my opinion. it should have rallied on good news or it didn't or didn't for

very long. that takes me back to this xrt look at all of these earnings that are coming up in the next two weeks. when you think about what walmart just printed here, the best comp store sales in a decade and it couldn't get going. when you look at some of these other names, are they going materially outperform what wa walmart just put up? here's one last point. here's the one-year chart of the xrt. look at this downdraft and this reversal most of it is gains. it's been up in step with the s&p 500, but most of those gains came in the week after christmas and the first week of january. since then, it just kind of consolidated here. it just broke out. so if you don't think that all of those names that are reporting in the next two weeks are going to be good, then you want some protection in the xrt. >> dan, why don't you come on over. >> is there even a chair for me? >> shelby will bring the chair in she always has the chair. >> how exciting. >> you're the man.

>> nice job. >> did that really catch you by surprise saying to come over to the desk >> usually it's see you rater. >> is this another case of positioning for the retail trade? will we see possibly good earnings or decent earnings and bad price action because the xrt is up 11% so far this year >> i think so. i'm shocked -- first of all, i'm happy dan was watching the show last night he's right i think we were all somewhat weren't impressed with the price action the stock opened on highs, walmart closed toward the lows we said valuation is a bit of a concern. i think that's the reason what happened today pete will say that it's a target against walmart. i think the fact that we didn't take out 2018 highs to me is alarming >> do you expect -- >> let me just tell you what i think. i think the most important thing in this whole trade right here, and i think it's kid of a positive thing for the market overall, is that the xrt had that bounce. it was just a two-week bounce.

it's consolidated. it actually waited for some earnings right? it didn't get ahead of itself here so to me i think walmart could be as good as it gets the next few weeks or the next few months for retail if home depot, if target, if these guys can't outperform, where is retail going to go from here. >> karen, where do you stand >> i'm long some retail, so foot locker tonight announced good news i'm long macy's. i think expectations are so low there, i think they were a lot higher for walmart i don't know what to make of it. long target, long foot locker. >> dan, thanks for coming by for more options action check out the full show friday 5:30 eastern time up next, final trades. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman?

hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade

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[brakes squealing] accidents can happen anytime that's why geico is here 24 hours a day everyday. geico, fifteen minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. time for the final trade pete. >> i love the earnings momentum. canada goose, baby this thing is going up, up, up, up, up. >> tim. >> so brent crude traded seven straight days high oil services, i think you stay there.

schlumberger. >> karen. >> i want to stay long but it's a run so buy some s&p puts to protect portfolio. >> i like that goose thing, by the way. wynn, roll them bones. we'll see you with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me. @ jimcramer. in the withhold days