>> some people think weekly gains and losses matter a lot. it's sort of steady as she goes. the rally is intact but has flattened out. >> that does it for "closing bell." have a lovely weekend. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast" the tech rally is rolling on as the nasdaq leads the dow and s&p 500 in gains for the year if you missed the run, the chart master said there is one stock to help you play catch-up. plus lyft will have its public debut this month. first, we start kicking off march in the green it has been the best start to the market in nearly 30 years. the nasdaq with a ten-week winning streak and the s&p closing above that key 2800 level. so with spring just around the corner, is an even bigger rally

blooming and what will take this market the next leg higher tim seymour. >> is that why we're getting vivaldi here so what does the market need we can't see rates which went from the low endi of the range, we're now above 2.75 on the 10-year. we got some comments by dudley this morning, something about the dog that doesn't bite in terms of inflation but that the fed could start to hike in the second half of the year. that's what worries me we stay range bound between 2.75 and 3 or 2.60 and don't get too low, i think the market likes that i think we've reset earnings expectations the rest of the world has seen a bottom in terms of their growth. i think we have a bit of a perception change for the market. >> if expectations are set so low at this point when it comes to earnings but also growth expectations on china and europe here, guy. >> yeah, dan nathan will be on options action in a few minutes,

a few months ago the s&p 500 was at 2400 and he said this is the opportunity. the market has rallied 18% so maybe expectations that are low have been somewhat priced in i understand what tim is saying. the fact that the s&p stays at 2800 leads me to believe there's another leg higher i think this is where we roll over from and maybe earnings in the back half of the year will disappoint again and maybe the fed will be in play. oh, by the way, maybe president trump won't get this much-anticipated deal with china done. >> to me it's all about the china deal at this point i really do think the fed is really sidelined for a while so the china deal, is a lot priced in already, though. we've been chugging higher on the trade progress, which i hope there is some because we hear a lot about it but i don't know if there actually is any. so i feel like with the vix here, i mean today, you know, the vix came in a lot, i like what i own if there isn't a china deal, i'm absolutely going to lose money on what i own, but i think you've got to have protection

here grasso has been talking about it, we get a china deal and it sells off. that could happen because we've seen quite a move predeal. >> one thing that's pretty clear, though, since we had the start of 2018 that the volatility regime has changed. despite the fact that you have a vix at 13 or whatever. when we have a couple month period like we've just had where we had this in 2018 in the spring and the summer where vol gets crushed and we have these slow kind of floating up higher, sooner or later we have these sorts of things that come out of nowhere and we have big flushes. that's been something that's been characteristic of the market for 18 months now so here's the risk the way i see it okay, fine, 2600 on the upside, that was a big level 2700, that was a big level 2800, here we are right now. so what's the thing that propels us from 2350 above 2930? to me i don't see how that happens. >> i think it's a challenge to

set new highs here i think if i look at the technical levels and the fundamentals of the market and the fundamentals of the economy for that matter, it's very difficult for me to see a test of 2350. i think that's where most of the market expected we were going to go so i think, look, at 2800 you're all probably right, we've had a very big run i'm not telling you it's straight to the moon i'm telling you i don't think this market will reset significantly lower. i think the market can go sideways we probably need to get that first quarter earnings cycle in. i know we're a few weeks away from that. if we stay range bound on rates, what else are you going to do? look at how equities have responded over the last four years and that's been an environment largely forr iequits to drift higher. >> is this a tina market do we bring her back tim, you brought her pack into the conversation you said what else are we going to do. >> tina all day long. >> in your opinion, who's the

greatest tina of all time? >> tina louise. >> no, turner. >> tina turner >> simply the best, tina turner. >> there you go. nois l nicely done. >> that's jason doing an amazing job with that. that should be the song we play if somebody wins one of the power pitch polls with that said are there stocks that you can buy, for example, we talked about this. exxon, the first time it's above 80 in quite some time. eli lilly moves to the upside as does big cap pharma. despite my reluctance to believe this rally, i believe those areas go higher. >> some growth in tech really well, some of the cloud stocks microsoft trades very well

apple, google, amazon do not trade that well. if you look at cisco, oracle, we mentioned microsoft. so those that have good balance sheets that would benefit from a kind of reflation in global growth and are priced pretty cheaply, they seem to be on the way breaking out i know i sound like a broken record, jpmorgan was trading near 106 and it closed a percent below that the banks need to start to participate if you're going to get back to 2900. >> how far is jpmorgan off of its all-time highs and still with record profitability? you act like they're going out of business. >> if you're telling me we have expectations low, there's valuation support in some of these groups the globe is coming back online, europe, the sentiment is way too bad. we're seeing em start to move. wouldn't that be a great environment for banks, especially when we have a very

stable rate situation. the 2-10 spread is the widest it's been in a while we're talking about all this ipo activity shouldn't this be great for the investment banks >> i don't know because it's the same environment we've had the last couple of years and banks have been sideways banks aren't falling apart i look at the environment where banks are trading on a price to book multiple that's basically near a trough. i don't know, are we going through a secular change i thought we priced in banks five years ago and we see some of these banks have cleaned up their balance sheets and become efficient players in their respective sector. so i don't have a problem with jpmorgan here, i own it. >> i agree i just want to yell at dan also. you're talking about valuations and looking at jpmorgan at 11 1/2 times earnings, right their return at 17%, right so they're making a lot of money. i understand the market hasn't really cared

but i think at this price, the risk/reward is so compelling for me with jpmorgan, you don't need an explosion in the economy. the economy is doing fine, their loan growth is fine. i think they talked about trading revenue being down for january. that's such a little blip. yet it seems to be weighing on it i'm happy to own jpmorgan. i think you're going to make money from here. >> my put is a little different. the thing that made new highs are cloud stocks that are trading at 80 times earnings we have boeing that's literally gone 140 points parabolic trading at 25 times. so you would like to see broadening out to this value stuff. what's wrong with those horses that got us to the highs in the early 2018 >> isn't it all right we have other things taking us to high >> but the stuff that got us here aren't going to help a heck of a whole lot from here on out.

if we dop not have a rotation into some of this mega cap stuff, we're not getting above 2930 unless we have them start to participate. >> well, i don't know that we won't get some of that participation, by the way. it may be the wrong time to talk about an apple when we talk about mega cap tech and expectations that have been reset, no one has any expectations some of these big boys -- >> i agree i would like to see them trading better same thing with jpmorgan on a day like today that's all i'm saying. >> quickly, here's a bank that i would watch. citibank, which has rallied significantly off the lows we saw december 24th, is now at levels that it sort of went down from in the middle of november citi does not trade particularly well you talk about valuation, that's the reason to own it but the stock hasn't traded well if citi rolls over here, which i happen to think it will, wonder if that takes the rest of the banks with it and in fact does that take the rest of the market with it. something to watch. coming up, lyft in full gear

unveiling its plan to go public and its advantage could be its early start. we've got the details. plus tesla shares skidding into a pair market as one trader thinks the selling is going to get worse. later, martha stewart, snoop dogg and pot is it a good thing the bud buddies are working on a new line of cbd-based line of canopy groh.wt what does this mean? much more "fast money" right much more "fast money" right after this ...red-blooded. right this way. you thirst for adrenaline, you hunger for raw power. well, you've come to the right place. the road is yours, dig in.

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welcome back to "fast money. lyft filing for its ipo today. it is expected to be one of the tech unicorns which could give them a jumpstart let's get to leslie picker. >> being first before uber could be best. there could be a first mover advantage. for one, lyft will be the first one to tell its story. it will be the company that sells the market on how a ride-sharing business should be valued and its post ipo performance could alter or deter the plans of other ipos coming

down the pike. there are several recent examples of this years ago box and dropbox were both quietly preparing their respective offerings box went public first. the stock soared on day one but a year later the stock traded around $10 and it was another three years before dropbox was able to debut. another example is fitbit and jawbone. beach company had a multi billion valuation in 2014 but fitbit went public first a few years later jawbone liquidated just like lyft, box and fitbit were the smaller company they had smaller private valuations than dropbox and jawbone before their ipos. that said, uber has already confidentially filed its s-1 the company is going public, but it's hard to ignore the impact that lyft's deal could have on its rival. if lyft's shares plummet, some investors may not be willing to

try their luck on another ride-sharing ipo despite the differences between the two businesses if it does well, that could cause investors to pull money toward lyft and reallocate to uber, which could cause lyft's shares to decline. >> leslie, thank you leslie mentioned the differences between the two businesses one is the operational geography which is primarily the u.s. and can do for lyft. lyft is much more pure play. uber has uber eats and freight and all sorts of other things. >> if you look at that slate of expected ipos, this is a good one to come first. it's going to get investors focused on a company that's been tramp transformative a lot of the data looked pretty good they made pretty good improvements over the last year and now they're butting up against 40% market share i think it's going to be a really popular hedge fund trade. long live short uber when uber

gets out. >> is that on a valuation thing or uber is seen as the evil empire >> as the far off number to taking market share in the u.s., it's very focused on the ride-sharing market as a pure play >> i think the size of the money they're raising is not a lot of money. what i'm seeing here is they're starting out -- >> they just file that >> in terms of size, though, i do think coming first, and this will be, i believe, a significantly smaller deal than uber and that's very bullish ultimately it's still that pure play i think it's going to set a proper tone and i think people have been waiting so long for these deals, nobody is rushing into these there's an argument lyft is bleeding money and lost 1.5 times what they did last year. those are the numbers. they also doubled revenue. these are growth companies at a time people have been paying up for these deals. we've been talking about that second wave of growth dotcoms

that have coming through in the last 15 months that have outperformed everything else in the market and i expect you see the same thing. >> even if the growth areas like the faang stocks are not performing well relative to the broader markets and it's the value trade in favor right now, these particular growth stocks should do well >> well, i don't know how to answer that question, but i will tell you if the ipo market is opening up with lyft, uber and some of these companies, where would be the first place i would go back to the exchanges. the nasdaq has traded from 95 down to 80, bounced back to 91 now. they report in the middle of april, 16.5 times forward earnings understanding i have no idea where they're going to list, i'd rather be in an exchange right now. by the way, i was a lyft driver. >> that is right. >> and what i read in the prospectus is apparently these lyft people are giving stock to drivers. >> you can take stock or, i believe, cash. >> nice hat.

>> the gloves. >> is that uniform >> no, that was my uniform i wanted to look good. it's sizzle issue. >> are those blue blockers >> for more on the lyft ipo head over to cnbc.com i'm melissa lee, you're watch the "fast money. here's what else is coming up on "fast. today on martha bakes, we're going show you one recipe for a delicious cake. >> well, believe it or not, thanks to snoop dogg, martha's next recipe might have a different kind of flour in it. we'll tell you what it means for the cannabis craze plus -- >> run, forest, run! >> if you're trying to catch the tech trade, don't worry. there's one stock the chart master says will have your portfolio running higher in no time there's much more "fast money" right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. " martha stewart and rapper snoop dogg have been bffs for years. in what you might think was an unlikely friendship. now the two have grown even closer they have become bud buddies the lifestyle guru entering a partnership with canopy growth to help develop animal health products based to connections with snoop dogg. check out shares of canopy growth a whole group of pot stocks have caught fire. our next guest says these are all signs the cbd boom could become a $16 billion industry. vivian, great to have you with us how do you come up with $16 billion when there's so much regulatory uncertainty surrounding the cbd space in particular i mean the fda head scott gottlieb said it could take a couple of years for regulations

to pan out he said higher concentrations of cbd should go pharma and lower should go to food and supplements. >> the current fda enforcement has been focused on companies that make aggressive claims that are more appropriate for a new pharmaceutical product so those are the products getting pulled off the market for the operators treading more cautiously, this makes you calm, this helps with sleep and they call it hemp, not cbd, those have been commercially viable. the current market in 2018 is estimated to have done between $600 million and $2 billion. when we did the sizing analysis, we took two approaches we did a top down analysis and a bottoms up on the top down we were surprised to see that 7% of consumers in the u.s. today already consume cbd. >> that's a lot. >> already >> already. >> admit to it. >> in our proprietary survey, yeah, we surveyed 2500 consumers

every month. >> so in terms of where the opportunity is for martha stewart and canopy or tilray along with authentic brands, there are a number of companies who have a partnership with brand-creating companies how do they go about tackling this big percentage of americans who are already consuming in some way >> well, you can go asset heavy or asset light canopy true to form is going to go a little asset heavy. they have announced they're going to invest $100 million to $150 million to cbd extraction and production they said they'd spend as much as $500 million in the u.s tilray going asset light they're going to have a partnership with authentic brands. >> vivian, congrats being way out in front of this trade it seems that hemp has jumped ahead of cannabis on some level to give all the big players deep into cannabis this opportunity to build out infrastructure right now in a legal framework so they're ready with brands and distribution what's the most exciting part of

this >> yeah, so i think it continues to lend legitimacy to the cannabis plant as a family, continues to destigmatize it for consumers and offers a new solution for consumers that they haven't seen in the marketplace before. >> that's amazing administrat. >> so does this help with -- in terms of the banking, money is fungible so does this help with the banking aspect before the passage of the save for the states act on the tc side of the business >> no, i don't think so. we really need congress to act we think there's a pretty good chance the safe act passes it's a $10 billion cash industry which really creates problems around money laundering and criminal activity. >> top pick, vivian. >> canopy growth. >> great to see you as always. vivian azar of cowen >> listen, the regulation here in the u.s., that's the really hardest part about this thing. so canopy seems like a really

interesting situation here but these stocks have run. i know that you, congratulations to you, tim, you were on the story early, but i think you're much more cautious about them right now, especially after this very short data -- >> it's hard to get excited about a 75% run. when you look at canopy or acreage or cure leaf, guys that are multistate operator, these are guys that are positioned so they can take advantage of hemp that is legal, even when the fda gets around to telling us what products and how they can function you have to find a way to get around the valuations. i think the guys that own assets and own a global footprint, they're developing brands and they're developing those now that i think will be part of this valuation story >> what is the biggest obstacle right now for institutions to get into some of these multistate operators i've heard the argument that multistate operators in the u.s. are the bigger opportunity than the guys in canada at this point in terms of valuations. >> i think that's right. vivian talked about how quickly the hemp cbd market is growing and the potential size of this

what we're also seeing is this is allowing institutional players, especially in the private equity market, are going big into these deals we always talk about this with new asset classes. when are they coming they're coming they can own the ones lessed on the nasdaq and stock exchange and they should because this is a diversified play. >> it is time for the final trade on this friday. >> we talked about global cyc c cyclic cyclicality. i like fedex >> karen. >> i have a very, very similar trade. everything that he said i agree with so u.p.s., valuation play as well >> dan. >> big shoutout to a big fan of the show, my dad happy birthday today and then stick around, o.a., we're going to say define risk long trade western digital. >> guy. >> apparently martha stewart and this snoop dogg person, they watch this show. they may be watching right now. >> big fans i hear. >> they have an open invite, is that correct >> oh, absolutely.

>> oh, final trade i'm just looking at the camera i'm not going to be here for a while people, so get used to it. but the nasdaq going higher from here. >> that does it for us here on "fast money. we'll see you back here monday at 5:00. "options action" starts right after this

hey there, we're live at the nasdaq in times square the guys are getting ready for the show behind me while they're doing that, here's what's coming up next. it's looking just downright bad for tesla shareholders the stock falling into a bear market if you think this trade is going to get even uglier, mike khouw will tell you how to profit from the wild ride. plus, there's one semi conductor stock that's surging this year, and dan nathan says if history is any indication, this stock is about to go pa parabolic. he'll tell you how to get in on the run for less.