philanthropic donation to try to get your kid in that way that's now tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. so this is a bargain for wealthy families trying to get in. what the guy in this story called a side door to get into college. relative to the alternative, it's a lot cheaper. >> robert, thank you very much for that thank you also, contessa, for joining us today that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on the show it is make-or-break moment for the semi stocks and maybe the entire market we'll tell you what wall street is waiting for. plus tesla hits the skids. the stock falling again, now down 15% this year one top analyst says it is about to get a lot worse for shareholders we start off with the big story of the day, the boeing fallout the stock down another 5% today after a number of countries and airlines ground one of its models let's get to phil lebeau in

chicago who's been following every angle as it's been unfolding. >> melissa, the numbers are not good let's take a look at how many airlines or countries and regions have grounded the 737 max airplanes from boeing. 36 airlines have grounded that plane. that amounts to about 64% of the global fleet in terms of countries or regions, we're not going to list them all because it's too long of a list. you've got the european union, china, australia, india, that's just a few of the countries that have said we don't want this plane flying in our country. as you take a look at shares of these companies that are out there still flying it, most notably the three u.s. airlines, american, southwest and united, we're going to talk about this chart in just a little bit because that's 2013. first off, who is flying the max? ten airlines right now still flying it. most notably the ones in north

america. southwest, american, united. the faa calls the plane air worthy i should tell you how much boeing shares have dropped since sunday, 11%. that's when we had the first inclination we could see some groundings when china said we don't want the plane flying. this brings up the question, have we seen this before, melissa? yes, we have seen this before. if you're an investor, you should be encouraged despite what we've seen boeing shares going through the last couple of days now let me show you2013. january of that year there are a couple of battery fires for the 787 dreamliner there were only about 50 of these flying at the time immediately japan said ground it, we don't want it flying. it wasn't long after that that the faa said ground it, we need to find out what's causing these battery fires. it's a huge story. eventually they put the plane back in the air after they figured out what was wrong with the lithium ion at barrtteries.

look what the stock did, up 81%, 81% in 2013 and it started at the beginning of the year with everyone saying the sky is falling. the dreamliner is going to be dead in the water. this is a disaster for boeing shareholders look what ultimately happened there. not saying that's going to happen with the 737 max because this is still unfolding. we don't know what's coming out of these investigations with ethiopia and skbooeindonesia. the shareholders were ultimately rewarded there. >> phil, do you know offhand what the time frame was between the dreamliner and the first battery explosion until the time that it was actually grounded? >> yeah, it was about 90 days. >> 90 days. >> january to the end of april and i remember, you know, all these reports were coming out. we did a lot of the reports where we said, look, we learned that they're going to make these changes with the battery in terms of compartmentalizing it

and little by little the stock started recovering almost every analyst said i know it looks bad right now, but you have to look at the backlog of orders that are here these customers are not going to run away for good, they will be there. >> sure. although in that case we didn't know what the cause was. it was a battery fire and we didn't know what it was here. >> we don't know what it is here we don't know, it could be something related to a part or an engine or some other part that boeing isn't responsible for, or pilot error. >> phil, you just mentioned backlog of orders. 2019 estimates for $110 billion in sales, $124 billion next year what percentage of that is this plane, the 737 max 8. >> it's a huge percentage. you're looking at about 5100 orders you've got about seven years worth of orders. the bulk of their orders where their free cash flow is coming from, it's with the 737 max.

that's why they expect to ramp up production from 52 a month up to 57 by the end of the year they're already looking at the possibility of 62, whether that's in the next year, next couple of years. if they can get past this and obviously move forward and go up to 57 and then look forward from there. >> phil, thank you phil lebeau, very busy at work on boeing this week. boeing is the worst performer in the dow for the second straight day, down 11% in these two days. how much worse can this get for boeing as a trader, if you love boeing stock, last friday, is this your chance, tim? >> i might have said even yesterday somewhere around this morning's levels, and 365 yesterday morning and down to the same level today, this was down 16% from the high of 440, that's a gift. that's a gift again today if day over day you have no other comments from the faa. thursday or friday when we get the results of the black box,

none of this diminishes the tragedy at the heart of all this, but as phil pointed out, there have been times in the history of this company where you've had this period where you've had multiple events over the course of a couple of times. also go back to 1988 when it was first hatched and they had two fatalities within 12 months and on the second one the faa got involved when the faa gives one of these air worthiness directives, it's not necessarily a death knell. they often work with the company to come up with solutions, et cetera this is actually a chance the stock begins to rally. so we do not have new information day over day what we do have is every country in the world except ours grounding this airplane. the trader in me says you break 360, you get out of the way with this stock but until we do and no new information, i wouldn't be selling right now. >> speaking of levels.

>> when you look at charts, the stock has done everything you would want it to do given the backdrop it held the 200-day moving average. it filled a gap from january 30th the stock is still up 25% year to date. so if we forgot about what happened and just said on march 11th would you accept the stock up 30% year-to-date, ike a lot of us would have said yes. i think you take a shot on the long side. >> that's a very simplistic view with all due respect, that didn't come out the right way, but just to say it dropped and if we didn't know why would you accept it, yes, you have to understand why the reason why is not the first plane crash, it is the second plane crash on this airplane model. while this may sound incendiary or whatever, this is what sentiment is, right, jumping to the worst-case scenario. >> when you look at the two biggest suppliers of boeing, both have reacted very well and not reflected the same type of

pain that we've seen here. also boeing the last two days, they tried to close in on the lows and couldn't. >> it actually has acted fairly well technically you look at 365, 367, the market is telling you right now that's where you're pricing this risk we're pricing out the risk here, tons of uncertainty. that being said, i think we do have incrementally more information today. we have 64% of the fleet grounded probably some other percentage of the fleet out there that is still being flown by airlines that haven't grounded it but can't fly into the eu and singapore and all these things so a significant portion of the fleet is grounded, takes a significant risk off the table that there's another incident before this gets fixed so to me at 365, 367, you've got to be nimble i think it's worth taking that risk at some point this is a huge part of their revenue stream they have to fix this problem. so when the problem gets fixed, the stock could recover. >> so they don't know what the problem is and it's going to

take a while to figure that out. i think the next shoe to drop is very likely that the faa will actually have to say we have to ground these planes. when that happens, this talk is going much lower all the airlines will act a lot worse and it's going to be massively disruptive if that happens. here's a stock trading well above a market multiple, expected to grow revenues 10% year over year, earns 26%. it's going to look really expensive if analysts have to start chopping 2019 -- >> i'm a buyer if the faa grounds it i'm a buyer. absolutely, yeah, because we have more information. >> 362 was the gap level from january earnings it stopped there almost to a dime if it goes through there, there's a lot of room below that. >> phil laid out some really important information about the background 2013 lithium battery boeing had not been on this

heroic run going into those two incidents sentiment on the stoc has been so bullish for a company that never has executed better it left a lot of dysfunction of the middle part of this decade frankly and possibly the first decade of this century boeing was not a company that necessarily was bathed in excellence in terms of how they were executing and getting these jets off the assembly line are we going to start thinking this way again >> this is a stock that people a couple of days ago were saying is a noncyclical cyclical at this point oh, that's where i heard it from the backlog is so long and so smooth that we can see -- >> hold on a second. noncyclical cyclical applies to the business it does not take into account when a company has an idiosyncratic disaster which would be related to quality control which is core to what these guys do for a live

i still think it could be that company when it's a duopoly globally. >> do we think the backlogs will go down because of this? if they don't fix it the company has a big problem. >> if the planes are still grounded by international airlines, they're probably going to delay those orders or whatever they haven't done because they're going to buy three next year. >> depends on how long the grounding is. >> that just means airbus is the big winner here. we had 52-week highs on that stock today. >> only if airlines switch if they actually can switch, then yeah. >> these were bad charts going into this. ual basically fresh lows, american basically fresh lows. delta is the only one that showed up. >> which has no max 8s in their fleet. >> that's how you play the airlines. >> i'll throw something else in here thinking about how dicey these trade talks are. we heard over the weekend that beijing is pushing back a little bit. i think this is the worst

possible news for the u.s. trade delegation when you think about it obviously this is a huge export of the u.s we know china is trying to develop a single aisle competitor to this sort of thing. airbus is really focused on boeing throughout europe here. we have picked trade disputes with our enemies and our allies alike here so to me i actually think this is just bad news for the trade group. >> everybody grounded this plane. the chinese were first and it seemed like it was politics, but everybody's in this world ground they had plane. >> except us as long as we stay out, i'm telling you the optics are not great. it's not a political statement -- >> but i don't think this affects a trade deal is boeing going to be the company that takes any leverage the u.s. had of getting a trade settlement, i think that's crazy. >> i think not only does this not affect a trade deal, this is not a market issue, it's a boeing issue so there's a message there as well. coming up, more trouble for

tesla as the company battles the s.e.c. one analyst says the stock is about to suffer for a different reason. plus semi stocks are southeastisoarin but they could come to a screeching halt. chris will step up to the plate to give us a fast pitch. you will not bie wt elvehahe says is heading higher much more "fast money" coming up next the latest innovation from xfinity

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the xfinity store is here. and it's simple, easy, awesome. welcome back to "fast money. shares of tesla falling today after two analysts cut their price target adam jonas said tess lala is hin an air pocket before expected. the stock is down 15% this year. is there a clear path ahead? ha ha, for tesla >> well, clear path ahead for investors in this. you just hit mute on all this noise. for the last several years, for the last three years, we've had unbelievably great news and then unbelievably horrible news we've had had an s.e.c. investigation. we've had they're not going to raise money. we've had that they're selling more cars than they thought they were going to sell and the stock just traded between 250 and 380

or so. and the 200-day average has served as the base of this channel. so i think bouncing off 275, which is the 200-day moving average right now, i think you can take a shot and buy this year what's going to happen with elon musk they're going to fine him, maybe. if there is a downturn, i don't think the stock reacts to that i think the holders of the stock are much longer term they're talking about changing a bunch of things out there. >> what if this gets political elon musk said on "60 minutes" i have no respect for the s.e.c. something to that effect short sellers enrichment what if the s.e.c. says a slap on the wrist isn't good anymore. you are no longer going to be ceo, you will be chief creative officer, whatever the hell you want to call your title. what does the stock to >> this to me, you talk about noise, i think elon musk wants the s.e.c. as a scapegoat. i think this is a classic case of let's create a distraction -- >> scapegoat for what, for the

stock going down does the stock go down if elon musk becomes cheief whatever >> more importantly, i think the issues are around the balance sheet of the company, the ability to generate free cash flow, the inability to get to free market. is it noise that the company has cut cap ex, cut guidance, cut stores -- >> it's always been horrible things with tesla and actually -- >> the stock has been up >> you traded from 275 to 380. if you traded in that range and hold on to it for five years, who scarcares. >> the problem i have here is the only people who have made money on this stock are those who haven't played. >> or traded the range. >> this has been dead money. you look at how it's performed this year. in a risk-on year you've underperformed meaningfully. >> people have lost money. the ceo tells you funding

secured. lures people in. you can't tell me this has been -- >> and you know who's had it right with the bondholders the bonds tell you a very different story than what the equity has. >> but the bonds have doppler radared down before and they get their financing. until this game is over, you can still play it. this is a trading show we're not talking about investing. >> why would you >> because you've got a trading range with massive volatility. i have a very good risk/reward i have a very low stop-out point at let's call it 270 why wouldn't i >> very low risk/reward for trade right near i'll take those odds all day lo long it's a trading show, that's what i do for a living. you buy it low and sell it higher. >> is that how it goes >> ten days to cover to two and a half days to cover right now the short interest has come out of the stock there's risk there there is not the shorts to come

to the rescue and squeeze this thing higher particularly if you break 260, you're looking at a stock that goes much lower. you've underperformed the s&p and underperformed the autos why not take a shot at ge. >> i'll be no place in this at all at260. at 270 b.k. is gone. he'll go and drive a volt. head over to cnbc.com for more i'm melissa lee. here's what else is coming up on the show there's one fast food stock that's hitting a fresh high today and leaving its biggest rivals in the dust and this hot stock could be about to heat up we've got the details. plus, it's history in the making top technician chris verrone is stepping up to the plate for a fast pitch he said there's one beaten-down stock that's about to eabrk out. he'll tell us the name when we return there's much more "fast money" after this

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welcome back to "fast money. semi stocks making a comeback soaring off the december lows, retracing nearly all of its los. josh lipton is in san francisco to break it down for us. hey, josh. >> melissa, let's take a look at the semis using the smh since the closing low on december 24th it's now up nearly 30% it's still up about 20% year to date some of the names making the biggest moves since that low, xilinx, amd, micron, nvidia and intel. the team at merrill lynch out with a new research note just today saying that fund managers cut back their allocations to semis leaving them less exposed than their prior peak so they're betting managers won't flock

back in. i also checked in with rbc's mitch steves now, he bets that the semis, excluding analog, do move higher from here. so that's memory, semi cap equipment makers as well as nvidia and amd in part because demand could be stronger than expected in certain key end markets in the back half of the year like the data center and smartphones, he says the biggest risk to the group is that a trade deal does not get done between the u.s. and china but steves bets that it does. >> josh lipton in san francisco for us let's trade the semis. dan nathan, what do you say? especially in a week where we've got a major semi conductor deal. >> deals are important when you think about from 2014 up to early 2017 it powered a lot of the outperformance we saw in this group. as you think about 2018 and we talked about it a lot, this group was one of the first

cyclical groups to really roll over and it never made a new high with the broad market a big part of it had to do there was a lot of ordering ahead of an expected trade war. here's the issue, we have inventories that are a little high like josh just said, the back half of the year could be better i would look at names like applied materials that are beaten down, sentiment is really poor, expectations are really low. that might be a name into the back half of the year that should see a pickup in orders. >> for me it's a no touch for a while here these are the leading edge of any type of weakness in the market it doesn't mean they have to retest their lows, but i don't think we priced in enough of the economic weakness. we haven't priced in a hiccup at the trade talks whatsoever after these levels, it doesn't make a lot of sense for me to get long semis. >> chris, why don't you head over to the plasma and break down the semis for us. >> we're going to talk about this group a couple of ways. i think what's ironic is as we

celebrate the tenth anniversary of the bull market for the broader market, semis had a bear market last year when you look at what they did from march of 2018 -- dan is right, these things peaked early. they were down 27% from the highs down to the lows it leaves you right back at the old highs. we've come in about 2% from the high so it's been a very modest pullback the last few weeks. if we look at the longer term chart here, i think the big question is we are right back into those resistance levels from march of 2018 but i think the difference this time around is they have re-emerged as a leader so in what has been a sideways or challenging tape over the last several days, we've actually seen some really good outperformance in this group now, this is cap weighted. if we look at the equally weighted semi conductor index,

this has already taken out those 2018 highs so in equally weighted terms, semis actually act a lot better here i'll give you two that we like in particular. the first is the biggest in the group, this is intel broke out of this big base last year, started to turn back up here over the last several weeks. you think you get this above 55, 60, you're looking at maybe a 70 or $75 long-term chart this is a very, very good picture. and then nvidia, a name that was certainly beaten down here they took 60% out of this one over the last number of months it is now basing we think it's turning. you start to get this above that 165 level, we think you give a run back to that 200-day trading average. in individu nvidia looks good long term. >> why don't you come back over to the desk, chris

it would be weird if we left him over there. >> that would be a little odd. >> would you rather, intel or nvidia >> and remember, chris drawing with his middle finger does not mean he's being impolite. >> i think he changed it up today. >> look, it's okay it's very effective. it gets people's attention so intel or, sorry. >> nvidia. >> intel intel. and to me this is a combination of a couple of things, first of all, i would be leaning more towards the value. i think some of the momentum in nvidia certainly still needs to be proven. i think the company has come way down in valuation. but i like the opportunities in 5g i think data center is a safe haven for these guys and a place they continue to show they can execute and outperform the competition. >> chris, you said equal weight semis look good which implies smaller cap semis have done well but you are recommending larger cap semis. is there thinking that they're going to catch up? >> actually when you look, for example, at the russell 2000

semi index, it has decisively made new highs so the real strength or the real alpha has come from the smaller ones we like intel longer term. i also like the yield on that one as well. i think nvidia gives you the most bang for your buck short term sky works might be one more that's washed out here starting to turn up. >> okay. >> i'm bullishly positioned in intel for a lot of the reasons that tim just said i thought expectations got pretty low there i think nvidia sets up for an interesting trade. we know how positive it was last year and how quickly it turned i think this base and that gap from january, november, up to the 200 level on the slightest bit of good news it just looks that way i'd be very surprised with expectations where they are right now that there is a considerable gap to the downside -- >> there's no skepticism in your view surrounding the mellinox deal >> the street likes it

we're not going to know all that stuff for months and months and months if this company feels that confident to make that size of a deal that stock is going to 180, 185, maybe 190. >> i think the big turn here was when apple came out and warned earlier this year, apple was telling you what the semis were telling you 12 months prior. all these stocks peaked in march, april of 2018 a lot of bad news has already been discounted in these nvidia, intel, sky works, i think they're all long here. >> i think the presumption is there are few catalysts to get us through this well documented resistance on semis because of the world we live in and the trade war. but i do agree i think people have zero expectations that semis could pick up the boat think about how these companies are tethered to internet spend, whatever companies should have been cautious on that and i think they could change their tune not overnight but i don't see that kamd. >> intel i'm a buyer at 50 bucks

or so if it comes back, but nvidia to me has the potential for just a bigger pop. to dan's point, sentiment is terrible on it it's traded sideways you could have a big breakout. there's a gap. there's multiple different things that would pull in multiple different types of traders. that's how you play the game, right? rather >> thank you for getting back to that. still ahead, chipotle sales sizzling now up 100% in the last 12 months the company just did something that could keep the stock on fire. plus check out this chart of a key market indicator that could be pointing to a major breakdown for one lagging sector that's like a riddle in a conundr conundrum. >> sound bedy a mystery. >> i'll tell you what it is when "fast" returns

welcome back to "fast money. chipotle rallying and hitting its highest level after they launched its own loyalty program. kate rogers is back at headquarters with the details. >> that's right. chipotle launched its loyalty program nationwide users can register online or via the company's app.

they're teaming up with venmo depositing surprise amounts directly into venmo accounts for people who sign up at chipotlerewardme.com digital is growing quickly for the brand, up 66% in q4 and accounting for 13% of sales. the ceo told cnbc exclusively that lyoyalty will further engae customers with its digital platform. >> i think this will be a multiplier effect on our digital business and what we've seen in the markets is people just get more engaged and more committed in our digital system with the loyaltyprogram. >> under niccol's leadership chipotle has been moving to make it more seamless, installing pickup shelves for and drive-throughs for digital orders they have second lanes for digital to speed up the process. >> chipotle has a significant advantage in that we've built

dedicated kitchens to serve digital orders we've integrated those kitchens both with our app and with delivery drivers so that the orders come in in a way that's seamless they don't interrupt the flow of the line in the restaurant. >> analysts say that's what chipotle is getting right, creating a digital experience that is seamless from screen to store, with loyalty being the next step in building out that ecosystem. melissa. >> thank you very much, kate rogers at headquarters that could cement its upper hand against one fast food rival, mcdonald's mcdonald's has rallied 15% but chipotle has almost doubled its share price in the same time period does this mean that chipotle has become the new fast food king? dan. i don't know why i went to dan, but dan. >> i love myself a chipotle burrito. here's the thing, car nitas, obviously. one of the things you said is interesting. they're building out separate kitchens not to avoid the flow

of the line in the kitchen what did we see at starbucks, all these pain points. i think a steady rollout, the combination with the rewards program, it all makes sense to me this is where it's all going here's the thing, this is going to be really nice upside for a company trying to get back to peak earnings, which we've all been kind of saying that's how you're going to value this thing going forward. >> are we going to look back at this chart and say this was domino's, you know, 2014 through 2017 >> i think so. what strikes me is people missed this from 200 to 400 they missed it from 400 to 600 and i think they'll miss it from sin 600 to 800 >> at what price, chris? i don't mean to interrupt you but i do think brian niccol has done an amazing job. i'm one of those people. but i look at the valuation. look, a digital rollout, yeah, that's great on loyalty. by the way, that was great for

mcdonald's stock and domino's stock. how many bites can we take out of this one? we've rallied on a digital rollout for chipotle i feel like the last three months. i feel at some point at a pe of over 60 right now, i have trouble with this stock. >> domino's rallied on three years for technology. >> but do we expect that that's what chipotle's foundation for -- >> i don't see why it couldn't the momentum is very strong. i wouldn't stand in front of this this has gone from a company that had all kinds of pr problems to now they're firing every cylinder you go to any chipotle and they're busy now that doesn't mean mcdonald's will get hurt by this. it looks like a coiled spring. if they can fire on a couple cylinders, and i know they're doing quite well but they too could break out like this. i think you can stay long chipotle, maybe take a third off and start buying mcdonald's. >> i think what's so unique

about this sector is how bifurcated it's been wendy's is rolling over, domino's is rolling over i think you can own mcdonald's and chipotle but this is not a growth call. some of its peers have rolled over. >> what people want to eat or don't want to eat these days. >> you could still probably bifurcate mcdonald's and chipotle being in different places on that spectrum. i do think that fast food, fast casual are destroyed by minimum wage i'm not making a statement on should people earn more, but their labor costs are coming out higher. we'll tell you which stock is reaching a new level. plus chris is getting ready to pitch one dow stock near its highest lel. nd out the name and what has him so bullish when "fast money" returns. but right now you've got your hands full with your global supply chain. okay, france wants 50,000 front fenders by friday. plan

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and so we're able to balance shareholder distributions with growth in a way that is really underpinned by our very strong and attractive portfolio. >> that was chevron's ceo michael worth on "squawk alley" earlier today on boosting the company's cap ex for the year which could be good news for our in-house technician chris verrone who is giving us a very special fast pitch tonight chris, why don't you take it away. >> we're going to make a contrarian call on energy. crude is acting really well. this is brent up through 65. despite all the concerns about global growth, oil acts well these are the energy stocks relative to the s&p. we think they can playsome catch-up given how well crude is acting when you look at the long term on a secular basis, i also think it's worth noting that the energy weight in the s&p is back to its historic '98, '99 low, about 5% so you're at the lowest ever, crude is acting okay, i think

you can buy cvx here you've seen some relative improvement. this is a five-month relative high you've started to break out of this little base cvx one way to play it. >> all right does anybody have questions for chris. b.k., yes. >> yes, in fact i do chris, looking at all these, are you looking more for the breakouts in the space or smt laggards ch chevron looks like it's about the breakout but there are plenty of laggards out there. >> what interests us given how bad the sector has been, i think if you look for flows into the group it's probably going to be the more defensive names, the chevrons, the exxons conversely, the service names, the e & p names are still quite weak one thing i would note, you have started to see the pipelines act a little better. the mrps, but this is about starting to dip your toe into what is a very out of consensus

call. >> chris, how do you see chevron trading relative to its peer group? so the other big integrated players, not so much exxon, or bp, your thoughts. >> when you look at royal dutches, the bps, those were actually your leaders last year. i think there's a reversal going on right now just given how hard the sector is, we have to own leadership. i think cvx gives you the best chance of finding that here. >> all right, time to vote are you buying or selling chris's pitch for cvx? dan nathan. >> i'm a seller. >> come on, man. >> it's his first fast pitch ever >> don't you watch the o.a. on friday i just think the dollar where it is right now, the expectations for global growth any time soon isn't great. i'm a seller here. it's come a long ways in a short period of time. >> brian kelly. >> i'm the exact opposite. i'm a contrarian to risk

reversal i'm a buyer for all the reasons that he just said. oil is behaving unbelievably well with a strong dollar, weak global growth. every time it wants to go down, it pops back up like a cork in the ocean, you buy that one. >> by the way, i tivo o.a. religiously. i think the combination of the ceo talked about free cash flow, discipline and spending, that's why this company stands above their peers in the integrated space. >> do you at home think chris's pitch has good energy? go to our twitter poll and we'll reveal the results later in the show. financials lagging the market and one just made a big bet. we are live in times sarque, much more "fast money" still ahead.

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this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. we've got a market flash on kraft heinz. the stock jumping after hours. let's get to leslie picker for all the details. >> kraft heinz hiringrbc to analyze -- lauren hersh --

breakstone has cottage cheese, butter and it could fetch $400 million in a sale. rbc didn't respond to the request for comment. kraft heinz declined to comment. >> leslie picker back at headquarters $400 million seems like a drop in the bucket. >> even if you didn't have all these issues, the reality is the reason why it may be some of this stuff went on, whatever we're going to call this, the top line hasn't been growing for a long time. selling off pieces, $400 million doesn't change the calculus. >> it takes more than this for us to change our tune. let's get to our chart of the day. check out the 10-year yield.

nearing a two-month low and coming dangerously close to a two-year low just how low could it go and what does it mean for the markets? the first thing you think about, dan, the financials obviously. >> we spend a lot of time talking about net interest margins for these big money center banks and they have underperformed over the last year and a half, much like we've talked about groups like the semis here a lot has to do with the fact we've seen this 2-10 year spread grinding down to levels close to inversion. we what happens when that inverts. every economist says we have a recession. what are the most sensitive group of stocks? banks. they're the ones that feel it first. so it all makes sense to me. >> there's going to be a time in the next 60 to 90 days that you're going to be able to buy the banks. they have to reprice in this flat yield curve but there is no way the fed will let the yield curve go negative just by their actions.

so they have a lot of levers that they can pull if you want to play this, you can buy two years -- >> b.k., last year they were doing a lot of things that are inadvertently making it get flatter. this year they were thinking about different ways to make it get steeper and it just goes lower. >> they have their balance sheet. >> mario draghi is working -- >> europe is not helping i do think that's a weight down on u.s. yields and the differentials are getting to extremes to where we've seen them here's the other side of this, though i think people underestimate the amount of supply coming in the u.s. with the treasury market. think about a trade deficit we just got last month. think about the fact of the matter is the economy is slowing and, dan, i'm surprised you're not on this. the lack of support for this administration, to the extent we've seen central banks diversifying out of treasuries, but more important treasury supply is an issue for yields. it is. >> tim, i'm going to answer that when you look at the way bank of

america has actually acted the last couple of days, it held 28. it held 28 copper reacted really well too copper can be a leading indicator for rates. i think the lower rate story is well known maybe the story is is the market up because rates or down or are rates down and therefore that's a risk to the market i might take the former. i think the market is up because rates are down. >> i take the latter because i think at this stage of this recovery, i think the reason rates are down is not a good setup after this -- after the extraordinary measures the world central banks have gone just to get us right here. >> chris had mentioned bank of america. it is one top performer in the sector this year one trader thinks the rally is about to end dan, why don't you break down the action. >> i think it's really important. chris just said it this is a very constructive looking stock. it's bounced off 28 a couple of times. there was one trade that caught my eye in bank of america. it was the april 26th weekly 28 strike puts.

there was a buyer opening 15,000 of the 28 puts paying 47 cents those break open at 27.53 on april 26 obviously this is going to catch not only bank of america's earnings but all of u.s. money center banks will have reported by april 26th. so to me i think it's really interesting. we have a one-year chart here of bank of america. like chris just said, it bounced off of 28 this year. you do see that gap from their q4 earnings from 26 to 28. when i see a trade like this, i kind of think protection for a long holder looking to kind of have some room to the downside in case it goes back to fill that gap on a miss real quickly, we're talking about that 2-10 spread we have a chart right here i'm hard pressed to think that doesn't invert i understand the fact that when it inverts it doesn't exactly mean we're going to have a recession and everything goes to hell in a hand basket but it's important to keep an eye on. >> tim, you're in citi

>> i'm in citi and bank of america. i can't argue that banks have traded well. i can't argue that the net interest margin dynamic is something. but if the u.s. economy and lending environment continues to be sideways, these banks are too cheap. >> going back to the chart of the 10-year yield, chris, santelli all day was talking about 2.55 being a key level an if it breaks 2.55 that's disaster but if it stays above, that paves the way for higher rates at this point. >> i think what's interesting is right now when you look at flows into the tlt which is the long bond etf, they're in the 95th percentile every observation going back the last ten years so there's a lot of money betting lower yields. i might be careful pressing that bet right now, particularly with copper up, banks maybe acting a little better. even some of the european not taken this last leg lower with german yields. they're something to watch. >> for more options action, check out the full show friday at 5:30 eastern time.

coming up next, the results from our poll on chris' first fast pitch ever, and final trades 3w4r57 see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade

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here's the question, do you know what chris verrone loves to listen to when practicing his walk over to the plasma and drawing on the chart with his middle finger to get ready for "fast money" it is toni braxton, of course. sorry, chris, on your very first fast pitch it is a loss. our fans aren't buying the margin of loss is so small, it's the narrowest it's been in a long time. 41% said yes, 59% said no, which is way better than what you've polled recently. >> i thought the dance version of "unbreak my heart" was really awful. final trade time, tim. >> so mcdonald's i don't think is awful either. in fact u.s. comps growing 2.5% is good enough for me right now. >> chris. >> cvx we think it's getting better play the pounce in crude that's how you do it. >> brian kelly. >> look at schulberger >> i'm look at them and chevron

and i'm a seller of that one >> nice to be against everybody, dan. that does it for us here on "fast. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 don't go anywhere, "mad my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica my job isn't just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. every now and then you get a conference call that captures the panply of what is going on right now and what is going wrong in the business world. that's