earnings multiples >> we've got a fed meeting and a number of important earnings nike, for instance, is out on thursday all the early bellwethers. >> and it's preannouncement season at least coming up. >> thank you all for watching. have a lovely weekend. that does it f "closing bell" today. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marked site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast" netflix shares are surging leading the pack of faang stocks and one analyst says this is just the beginning of total domination. plus take a look at this mystery chart. it is a chart wall street cannot stop talking about and could spell big trouble ahead. fist, we start off with docks surging. the dow up 200 points adding to the year's rally the market is now on track for its best start to the year since

1998 it's not just here in the u.s., emerging markets are breaking out too. the eem etf is up 11%. and china doubling down on its fiscal stimulus saying it will cut into its own flesh, those are the words of the premier, to support economic growth this year wefrg looki with everything looking pretty awesome, did investors just get the all clear to buy stocks, guy? >> usually one question i can handle cut into your own flesh to make sure there's economic growth. >> they will do everything they need to do. >> i said to myself if there's about to be a trade deal, why would you need to cut into your own flesh. but i'll answer your question because that's what i do emerging market outbreaks. yes, it's up as measured by the ee -- eem you know where it was?

52.50 so we have a long way to go to get a breakout in this you're talking about eem levels with the vix now sub 13, exactly where it was in october. i've been wrong quite some time thinking the market is going to roll over. my answer is no. >> n-o >> the answer is no. i'll start with the answer and back track china, industrial production, '09 lows retail sales, 2012 sales no the answer is no we're not out of the woods >> but it takes time for stimulus -- fixed asset investment the other night ticked higher. >> $40 trillion in debt. >> that hasn't mattered. >> where's gdp going look at the chart on gdp where's productivity stagnant. >> that hasn't mattered in this bull market whatsoever in both china and here >> this is an overshoot. this is not built on fundamen l

fundamenta fundamentals. >> this market hasn't been built on fundamentals since 2009 i've been fairly cautious the last couple of weeks some people have called me downright bearish and it turns out i've been wrong because the market has rallied in my face. i thought we were going to get a dollar breakout. that would have been very bad for multi nationals. the dollar has come off. it looks like it's come off the boil a little bit. if you get a weak to stable dollar, especially if you get a weaker dollar, that's very good for emerging markets and a tail wind for u.s. stocks. >> if you need someone to be bullish, i'll step up. number one, you've got no more rate hikes by the fed. that was a pressure on emerging markets. number two the dollar isn't going to go ridiculously higher. number three, something inconsequential is going to

hachlt so there's a potential for surprise there if you're not going to fight the fed in the u.s., why are you willing to fight the chinese government who's willing to cut their own flesh. look, it's underperformed the s&p by 3% or 4% this year. >> everything that's been done hasn't worked. >> so they cut rrs five times in the past year. they still have cut -- they're going to cut their social security fees. they are going to cut lending to microand small businesses. these are all stimulus is in the pipe. >> if i asked over or under how many times china has cut their rrr, what would it be? >> not in the last year. it never works. >> it's working this year. that's the thing >> brian, brian, the market has rallied off a potential trade deal once that deal is done or not done, the market gives the all

clear to be sold not to be bought. >> i'm not sure i agree with that anymore i would have agreed two weeks ago. >> one of us will change and be bullish and the market is going to crash >> i'm just reading what i see out there and i'm saying i was bearish. the market is rallying in my face i have to re-evaluate my thesis. >> gdp is cascading -- >> stop yelling out loud so people can hear things. >> i feel like i'm at a dinner table growing up. >> the shanghai composite has rallied this year with the chinese stimulus that is a change in the behavior of chinese investors in that case if you get a weaker dollar, that should be very good for emerging markets in general. when you talk emerging markets, you do have to talk shanghai. >> there was no way at your dinner table there was yelling and screaming. no, there was very polite -- be honest. >> there was a lot of math going on. >> if i got a "b," then there would be a lot of yelling. >> this is a tame dinner for my

family look, i think the idea that we've had a monetary policy end game in china, i don't think that's right yet i think we're over 70 stimulus measures i think it's going to take some time but in the second half of the year you'll get a reacceleration there. >> i look at the mirror image of what steve just said you say they're hopeful because of the stimulus measures i look at it as nothing worked they can't find growth >> can't find 6% growth. >> everyone knows it's not 6%. it's 2.5% to 3%. >> well, that's your own skepticism about the validity of chinese data. >> we trade off of the data we have even steve, the screaming bull, do you think china is growing at 6%

>> it's not 6%. >> but is it 2 like here >> is it 2 going to 0 or 2 staying at 2 going to 2.5. >> tell me when the 70 stimulus measures are taking effect. >> i think you're starting to see it take hold and it will play the rest of the year. now, when you're at a craps table which you were recently. >> you were? oh, in vegas. >> i was in las vegas. with that said, he would even admit that the fact that the s&p continues to trade above the 2800 level for the last couple of weeks is somewhat encouraging. it blows a hole in our thesis. you think that's what b.k. is saying at a certain point you have to respect the price action or get on board maybe my premise is right but the market wants to do something else we might be there. >> i think 2800 is going from the high end of a range that you want to sell hoping for a better entry point. if we can stay above the 28,

2815, you get a fomo type of market. >> if it does hold key levels, at what point do you say the market is going in my face. >> i thought it was an overreaction in december i thought we had an equal overreaction that we're experiencing right now i saw a 10% rally, said that this is an overshoot you can be bullish, bearish or wrongish i've been wrongish on the last 10%. i don't want to be buying the market until it holds that level 2800 then you can nibble or stay long your longs, but i do think we're do for a little reversion. >> here's a plot twist and this is going to be like a rorschach test. >> was that the guy in can the welcome back, kotter >> brian kelly actually brought up this chart during our midday conference call. this is the implied probability of a rate cut.

it surged this month. just a few months ago investors were fearful of several fed chair hikes and chairman powell calmed those fears but the chance of a rate cut has jumped from 2% to 30%. a rate cut could suggest an economic downturn is coming, which the market is not pricing in here's the rorschach test part of it. is this supportive or is this a negative for the markets. >> i brought this up because this was my thesis on why we were due for a pause it doesn't mean we won't still have one but the thesis was the stock market had not priced in the weak economy yet what's happened is the bond market has priced it in. the chances of a rate cut by december are actually 30%, up from 2% at the beginning of the month. there's been a massive repricing the bond market. the stock market said wait a second, the playbook has been

buy stocks to me i've got to say there's something not right with the stock market in my thesis. >> grasso, how do you view this chart? this is telling you it's bad for the market. >> it's bad for the market historically the fed has 5% to play around with in places of recession. that's what they cut in '95, 2005 and 2008. if they start cutting now, they don't have the ammo. they have 250 basis points they don't have enough ammo. >> the flip side is that the fed will remain very supportive of the markets in whatever economic climate. >> it's a good thing for you that we took the horshak test in college. what i learned is your answer is based on your preconceived notions, your dogma.

you look at that and pc is bullish, i see bearish i'm sort of in steve's camp. this fed, this is just the president talking, not me, i'm echoing his words. greatest economy in the history of the republic. maybe it is, i don't know. i'm not an economist why are we about to cut rates if things are so great? i'd say wait a second, what's going on with the underlying economy. at a certain point the market doesn't have that fed put in place. everybody seems to think the fed's got our back maybe they don't anymore. >> i think the fed does have our back so i'm 100% on board with you that i would not like to see them do this whatsoever. but as long as they're going to be supportive. as long as they have the stock market president in there pressuring them to be that way, i think you say, listen, stocks go up when rates go down. >> i don't think this chart is as big of a deal as we're making it out to be yeah, it's 30%

but there's a 70% chance they're not going to hike. it is appropriate to price in ray higher rate but we're not headed for a recession, we're not going to cut this year and 70% odds say we're not so pack to mr. kotter, up your nose with a rubber hoez. >> did you ever see that epis e episode? that was a trick question because they did it in every episode. big tech, big problems a regulatory attack could be coming to the sector the traders will tell you which company can weather the storm. check on the sbi etf the chart master sees more gains ahead. and later, liyft off gearin up for its road show next week uber is not behind we'll tell you why both debuts have major implications for this chorrk mu me "fast money" after this looking for pork chops.

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welcome back to "fast money. big tech under fire. states attorney general warn that the industry is about to face a reckoning as they believe the companies have become too powerful

a regulatory storm has been brewing around big tech and seemingly picking up steam facebook a prime example with a "new york times" report saying they are investigating data deals. netflix is streaming higher today as bmo put the stock as its top tech pick believing it's the most insulated from plans like senator elizabeth warren. has netflix really become the safe tech bet, grasso? >> i don't know if it's the safe tech bet i've been a bull on netflix. you know my feel obviously these names if the market rolls over, these names will roll over pretty hard as well i watch a lot of netflix and a lot of amazon prime. i only look for originals. but i was very shocked to see the small amount of originals that are really taking up the viewing time that's what made me a little less bullish about netflix if you're comparing to amazon and talking about getting broken

up, it's a safer plan. >> we're talking about this regulatory side and the tragic shooting in new zealand. the alleged shooter announcing the plan to do the shooting over twitter and using -- live streaming it that brings up a whole other thorny -- >> absolutely netflix is probably the most insulated. to steve's point, we're at levels that topped out in october so it would stand to reason we're getting a little long in the tooth. i've done a decent job with netflix for the last 30 i've been wrong i think there's a huge move to the upside off of that last earning release, but the headlines -- seemingly every head line is negative. if the market would roll over, facebook goes down hard. >> no, tech has entered the notorious b.i.g. club.

those three letters, b-i-g, big. it's big tobacco, big pharma, big tech that tells you you've got a bull's-eye people are okay from a data perspective. i don't mind if netflix knows what i'm watching but when you start taking my data i don't know that you're taking, using it for something i haven't dpraed to or sell it to somebody else, that's a different story when you look at the business models here, companies that guard your privacy or use it internally are better positioned than those using externally. let's not forget disney is ready to knock on their door. >> what happened with facebook yesterday, i know you guys surrounded the trade last night, but to me what was different about it is they're going for a privacy platform they're going to a privacy

messaging platform they are actually taking the bull by the horns and saying we are going to change our ways so i don't think wall street has priced that in to me that's why facebook is the most interesting. >> i was talking to ed lee at "the new york times" about that story about the states' attorneys general going after them regulators couldn't force them to break up because there were no legal grounds to force them to break up so how could states' attorneys general do that? well, this forces them to a place where they say let's do federal regulation because state-by-state regulation would be a nightmare for big companies. so could this be the foregone conclusion, there will be federal regulation >> probably yes is the short answer to that would you want -- facebook gets broken up. do you want 50 facebooks and each state to have their own it's madness if ooyou think abo

it what works for facebook is basically advertisers have no place else to go but if some of these platforms can get their act together, twitter, for example, maybe facebook is not as seamless and as protected as we want to think. >> i think the issue is how do you break them up even if you want to. what grounds do you use? it's so tough to untangle. >> for more netflix and what is next for the streaming giant, head over to trading nation.cnbc.com. lyft and uber gearing up for their public debuts. we'll tell you what wall street is watching. later, fedex reports earnings next week we'll tell you why one tderar thinks the company will fail to deliver. there's much more "fast money" right after this you've worked hard to grow your wealth. make sure you're working with a wealth manager who can grow with you. cfa charterholders have the investment expertise to unlock opportunities other advisors might not see.

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welcome back to "fast money. two ride-sharing unicorns are entering the final leg of their road cases let's go to deidre bosa in san francisco with more on the story. >> hey, melissa. in the early days these companies fielded questions like what's your addressable market and who are you disrupting ten years later they are facing wall street to pitch their stories to public market investors. i spoke to a few analysts who cover companies like grubhub who they're using as the closest compares comparison here are the top five things they say wall street will be looking for. one is capital allocation strategy two, their long-term pricing power. three, what do margins look like at maturity. investors will want guidance

about how to think about competition and how they find, pay and keep drivers in the long term they told me that a key metric will be customer and driver acquisition costs. these are all critical companies for all companies expected to go public at valuations far above their last market rounds uber is expected to go as high as $120 billion. uber would be worth more than established names, amgen, honeywell, costco, just a few of them that uber would be valued higher than. wall street will want to know how a ride-sharing company with no profits and a yet-to-be proven business model justifies that amount. >> so here's the question. how is the market going to receive these two unicorns, and will that be the barometer of risk appetite? >> i think the market will receive them quite well. when you look at these businesses, they're asset light

businesses they could get a good valuation particularly in this marketplace where we're talking about google and facebook those companies are generally asset light, at least more asset light than something like united technology i think the ability to pull some levers and get those profitable numbers will help both uber and lyft. >> they have already shown their growth is slowing in the fourth quarter in their filings that's because they're subsidizing rides. if the business is so great, why is their growth slowing already before they even go public if you're picking between lyft and uber, uber has a lot more levers to pull i think they'll both be successful but ultimately i'm worried about the growth. >> at this stage shouldn't it be growth at all costs? acquiring customers, shouldn't that cost something? in this instance it is subsidizing rides. >> netflix has done it to land grab until you get to that point so the answer to the question is

yes. how do you trade these plays, though steve would probably agree, intercontinental has backed off as do the nasdaq but i think these have a lot of value. time for the final trade here steve grasso. >> if you don't believe that rates are going up, and they aren't going up and the 10-year seems to be under pressure, then you go with the home builders again. lennar, stay with it. >> b.k. >> steve is correct and rates aren't going up so the dollar should be weak by ewz, that's brazil. steve chevron, thank you for joining us tonight. >> pleasure. thank you for being gentle em, which is what we started this conversation about. rates aren't going anywhere, dollar isn't either. stimulus, don't fight china. >> it's that time again, mel it happens every 12, 13 weeks. another one of our great pages or interns. >> they're pages. >> i knew that

shelby is unbelievable from san francisco. she's going to work on ari melber's show, probably called the ari melber's show, i don't know, because that's on msnbc. manal trade, gw phar. >> "options action" is up next

hey there, we're live at the nasdaq market site at times square the guys are getting ready for a big show behind me here's what's coming up. >> special delivery. >> fedex is on deck for earnings next week, and dan nathan says investors should return this stock. he'll tell you how he's trading a failed delivery. plus, it's been a rough week for boeing the stock is down 10% this week, and if you think there's more pain ahead, mike khouw has a way to profit for almost nothing at all. and, biotech stocks are