transactions continues and they're number one >> semiconductor >> oil pushing toward 60 bucks devon energy >> "the exchange" with kelly evans begins right now >> thank you, scott. here's what's ahead in a very big hour we just heard the president say he's considering leaving tariffs on china this as we're an hour away from the fed's decision is interest rates and the fed paying close attention to the trade war and its impact sent stocks to their lows of the day. also jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon will join us with his take on the economy, the markets, the fed and the company's big push for workforce development. plus, fedex's flop and oil prices touched above $60 today that's all ahead in "rapid fire." let's begin with today's ch

numbers. dom chu? >> at the lows down to close to around 200, a little over 200 points in the dow jones industrial average off by about 170 points right now. still holding above the 2815 level. maybe support for the time being ahead of the fed decision. nasdaq off by 0.5% transportation stocks very much a focus. you heard kelly just speaking about fedex. that's factor that in to the dow jones transportation etf a real underperformer today. what's the number one weighting in this etf? it's fdx, fedex. big weight on this one one of the worst performers in the s&p 500, and let's take a look at what's going on with our stock of the day it's not all red check out general mills up 3.5%. the best performing stock in the s&p 500 and its highest levels in over, or just around a year at this point. better than expected earnings

driven in large part by some of the success in pet foods and also price hikes we'll see if that plays out with consumer staples >> see you then, dom welcome to "the exchange." as we mentioned, president trump saying in just's past half hour that he may leave tariffs on china for a long period of time. even while saying a deal is coming along all this comes after the ceo of ubs grabbed international headlines by saying that this is one of the worst first quarter environments in history and investment banking conditions are among the toughest they've seen in years. on top of all that, gasoline prices are up 9.5% over the past month for aaa. let's bring in bob pisane from the nyse looks like the china headline dominates for now. >> right now, yes. the president's comment, tariffs may remain for a long period, that highlights the headline risk one of the two main drivers of the rally in 2019. there's two. the primary mover of the 2019 rally, it's been central banks

have been accommodative around the world. from china to japan to the uk to the ecb in particular. and right here to the federal reserve. traders believe that central banks have their backs but the second factor is a belief in a trade deal and that the tariffs will go away you see what happens when one of those two assumptions are questioned now as for the federal reserve, i don't know what they'll say, but i know what the street wants to hear. number one, they want to hear a maximum of only one hike possible, not two as is still in the dot plots. they want a lower inflation forecast and labor market strength and the strong u.s. economy. but they also want to hear more color on how serious the weakness in europe and china is. kelly, back to you >> we spoke about fedex and how much bad news was already priced into the stock why is it that they're still struggling today was it something specific that has investors spooked or just the fact they couldn't clear even that low bar? >> yes the concern was, remember, they

dropped their estimates by a good 8% or so for 2019 back in december and now they've dropped them another 3% or so the hope among the bulls was we heard most of it and any cuts -- further cuts will be modest. 3% or 4%, it was more than the street was expecting see if micron does something similar. both of them down 30% in december the thing i would point out, six companies that have reported february quarter earnings. only fedex has missed. oracle did well. ge general mills had great numbers overall. 5 of the 6 positive. so far i'm not willing to say we'll have some kind of disastrous move in the stock market yet >> and we'll watch for micron this afternoon turning to the fed's imminent decision on interest rates. the decision and statement are due at 2:00 p.m. investors will be laser focused on the details of this decision. steve liesman in washington with more hey, steve >> yeah, i think what we're

waiting to hear is not so much in the statement but in the press conference for jerome powell to put a little detail around this new policy of patience that's out there. specifically, is the patience thick or the fed's patience thin what would move it back into either hiking or even cutting re rates? here's what we expect to happen. announce an end of the balance sheet on maybe q3 or q4. maybe downgrade gdp again, and then the question is, do we get one hike or zero hikes down from the two forecasted and the consensus for 2019 many think it's going to be one. and the fed may also discuss the risks out there. the global slowdown. the trade tensions brexit some of the other things out there on the minds of the fed. we'll wait until those things clear before we can tell you what's ahead next with policy. >> let me tell you about the commentary out there i like this one from nat west which says the fed will only

move beyond their perceived level of neutrality if the data clearly require it the burden of proof has shifted from those who want to stop to those who wish to keep going and at pantheon they say losing one dot, that's a forecast for one rate hike, is a good bet losing two, going down to zero again, would box the fed in unnecessarily. so those are the parameters of the debate we're looking at right now. is it 2, 1, 0? and what moves the fed either way in this new policy of patience >> paul mcculley just saluted you. he's here on set >> paul, my friend >> right back. >> great work, steve we'll let you go and see you soon we get that statement at 2:00 p.m chair powell's press conference at 2:30. "power lunch" will be all over it with instant reaction and analysis let's bring in paul mcculley, a senior fellow at cornell law school and former chief economist at pimco also julia coronado.

great to have you both here. paul, what are you looking for the details of this decision matter more because the headline move won't sound that interesting. is it the dots is it -- tell me what are you most interested in? >> it's hard to disagree with steve. i do think that the big picture matters as much as the details and we can get into the details, but i'm hearing what mr. powell did back six weeks ago as a pivot and everyone is into this whole issue, the pivot, the powerful pivot, the whole sort of thing we all know what happened, but rather than looking at it as pivoting away from a mistake he made in december, how i look tat, he's declared victory he's finally reached the promised land of neutral, which is a neighborhood. and it goes from 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 so, therefore, this mission they've been on for three years has been completed they are at neutral so their

reaction function changes fundamentally versus the last three years which was, close your eyes and get to two unless the dow stops you. >> the data since then, the markets have been much more positive remember going into december, they had fallen out of bed markets much more positive payroll number, just ignoring the 20,000 headline, everything else about that was very strong. all the other data is holding decently but maybe mixed? >> we're tracking weak on q1 so the markets have gone one direction on the easiness of central banks globally and the data have kept going the other direction. so both globally and in the u.s., growth is tracking weaker. lots of noise in the data. seasonal issues. government shutdown, et cetera but we need more confirmation that things are okay to sound the all clear. >> it's not so much, okay, this has been a rebound and now they might respond. you're saying this is still going to be a very weak environment? >> still in risk management mode since we are at neutral, we have

the luxury of being extra patient and setting the bar higher to pivot back >> so what's the paul mccully about rate hikes we're about to lap the longest expansion. the ten-year anniversary of the bull market. and we're talking about rate cuts without a recession looming. we're talking about rate cuts even if the expansion keeps going. what's going on here >> i think we harken back to '94 and '95 which is the last time we had a genuine soft landing in our economy. we didn't go into recession, but the fed did ease in 1995 after the big tightening in 1994 so i think you are looking at ease as potential lubricant for a soft landing not there yet and i'm not going to pound the table that the fed's next move has to be an ease but clearly, that is a very viable scenario. not soon but looking further out. and actually when you look back to 1994, it was only about 6 or

8 months between the last hike and the first ease and mr. greenspan, fed chairman at the time, that it would come a time when they would stop tightening, even ease, despite adverse data, if the signs of inflation were moderate. we're setting up the markets for that kind of scenario. >> i wonder about the productivity numbers that was greenspan's big insight. there was a pickup then. maybe we're starting to see a pick up now based on almost 2% for last year. is that sustainable? that would be one commonality again between now and then >> i mean, that is the holy grail. we have seen some better numbers over the last year that went hand in hand with a stronger performance in the goods-producing sectors of the economy. we'll see if that lasts. i think the good sectors are going to be the ones hit by the global slowdown. we may not see the above 1%

performance this year that we saw last but nonetheless, i think the bottom line is inflation pressures are subdued whether that's because productivity has been better or because there are these secular forces but that's another important backdrop to the fed's thinking here inflation will be lucky to touch 2% on core this year >> so just to put a point -- you think one more hike this year or none >> we're in the zero hike camp >> i don't think the fed is going to hike but i think they'll focus one more hike. >> thank you julia, appreciate it here's what else is coming up on "the exchange. >> coming up -- jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon joins us his take on the markets, the economy, workforce development and much more. and an about-face. may be overhauls its ad targeting following accusations of discrimination. will it be the first in a series of big moves by tech giants to

get ahead of any potential regulation and why one analyst says to buy lyft before it's even gone public this is "the exchange" on bccn what will we do now that servicenow

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eu regulators fining google for the third time since 2017, plus the house homeland security chair calling on tech leaders to explain the spread of violent content on their platforms they are trying to prevent illegal discrimination following complaints casey newton is here to explain. mark douglas ceo of steelhouse, a facebook ad partner. and julia boorstin joins me on set. julia, first of all, on the google -- on issue in the eu, the fct it's the third time in the last couple of years $9 billion in fines in total and the president just said he cited this as an example of why he's saying the eu has been as tough on the u.s. as china has what is the issue for google is this behind them or still more to come >> the eu is taking a very close look not just at google but also at facebook we have gdpr we have all these different ways they're considering these companies either being too big,

either not protecting data privacy or another issue they are increasingly looking at is one that came to light with this new zealand shooter, this idea that they're not adequately protecting their users from violent content. so this is just the beginning in the way the eu as well as other nations around the world are going to take a close eye, a critical eye at these companies. >> i'm curious what this means for you after mark zuckerberg has said there will be a shift to private encrypted messaging what does that mean for its ad placements >> i think in terms of the messaging, that's no change. that should have been done already. but in terms of the tightening or essentially actually loosening of the targeting, these markets are not big for facebook they're not doing a lot of advertising for apartment hunting and job hunting and things like that what's curious is they are getting sued to serve ads to more people. last year was to serve less. now it's to serve more kind of in a no-win situation.

>> what i'm saying is, especially as we saw with the new zealand shooter, if the news feed has become such a problem for facebook and they can't have enough moderators to police all of that content, if they're pushipush ing people to shift to private messaging, what does that mean for ad placements going forward? >> the ad placements are against the content and the -- i don't think the private messaging. that's outside of the facebook newsfeed, right? that's just messaging on whatsapp that's messenger and facebook which is not that widely used. so i don't think one affects the other. they're just two really different things the core newsfeed in facebook and instagram, those are remaining unchanged right now. >> casey, you agree? >> well, i think it's going to be a real big problem for advertisers once private encrypting messaging becomes the future of facebook zuckerberg has said this is where he thinks the company is

going. it's possible we've already hit peak instagram advertisers might find facebook is a lot less effective than it used to be >> if you're right, we're just hitting peak crackdown on facebook does this suggest once again it was the case with microsoft? we'll be chasing an old story or not? >> i think that one reason why mark zuckerberg wants to push into private messaging is so he can turn the page on this story and avoid some of these hard questions that he's facing but even if they are able to move into this world, i don't think the questions about competition are going to go away and it's going to introduce a whole new set of subjects that i think regulators will be very interested in. >> it's worth noting that facebook has been experimenting with different ways to put ads or sponsored content or sponsored messages they've been experimenting trying to make it a platform for customer service to make that the way you interact with companies when you put in orders online

instead of communicating via e-mail you do it via messenger there are opportunities for sponsored communications in that world but the reality is people are not going to want to see a lot of ads in their private messaging. and that's one reason facebook has at the same time been moving into this area of more professional content they have facebook watch touting the numbers of how many people are watching more professional read ad safe video on their platform. we'll see more bifurcation into this and then professional content. they need to find opportunities for advertisers. >> where is everyone going >> i don't think they'll leave instagram. i think that facebook's ability to narrowly target will be more limited and they may be doing more private messaging on instagram or sharing with smaller groups rather than the broad newsfeed sharing we became so familiar with >> what would you say about that, casey? where are they going >> i think groups are the place where advertisers are probably going to continue to see the most opportunity there are some great targeting

possibilities there. and i do think that at the scale of the newsfeed and of instagram, these platforms are not going to go away tomorrow. but i do think that if you rely on these businesses to sell ads to find customers you should start thinking about what are the next platforms going to be they may not be the ones you're using today. >> any examples, casey, come to mind >> well, we sort of are waiting on new platforms to be built if you look at the decline of the newsfeed in north america, it's clear that people are seeking their entertainment elsewhere. tick tock is a platform that's on the rise and would see advertising opportunities. my own hobby horse is i think e-mail is coming back. i think people love getting their news in their inbox. i think there are a lot of things that are going to start bubbling >> the newsletter. i'm part of that mark, the last word. how do you think the advertising is going to shift as a result? >> well, i don't think facebook and instagram, insta gram in

particular is, by far, the highest performing ad platform although i think there is competition in the future, there's nothing that comes close right now. so for the near future, facebook is safe. >> appreciate it great conversation julia, mark and casey. coming up -- jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon joins us live along with american university president, silvia matthews burwell. there's a lot to talk about. you don't want to miss it. first, fedex's global warning. lyft picks up its first buy, and pet food profits it's all in "rapid fire" which is early, next "the exchange" is back in two. -it's all about the big picture. with miguel, our certified financial planner™ professional, we looked at business insurance, our mortgage, even our plans to adopt. -it's not about this fund or that fund --

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welcome back to "the exchange." a few stories that should be on your radar time for our "rapid fire." dominic chu, seema modi and bill griffeth fedex saying it suffered from slowing international macro economic conditions and weaker global trade growth and tough exchange rates the stock is on pace for its worst day in three months. >> and ubs and bmw and samsung and that's just this week. >> it's an onslaught at this point. it's a trend, clearly. look no further than the ten-year yield which is below

2.6% the stock market is sort of ignoring that, and the bond market is embracing that we have a global slowdown under way. >> i got into an interesting twitter conversation, if you can even call them those, about why fedex is doing this. it feels like they threw the kitchen sink at this and my response was, this is the time that you do it. there's been commentary abounding about a global slowdown concerns there are companies left, right and center are starting to say, hey, it's going to take a toll here's the time that you manage expectations lower >> you are talking like you're in strategic coms. it may have been some of your own fault. if you cite these factors, it may be plausible >> if they're at play for everyone involved then this the time you'll have relative latitude for investors >> there are global impacts. amazon tries to develop its own supply chain and limit its reliance on fedex and u.p.s. there's certainly that issue as

well >> granted the tnt acquisition with that exposure to europe may have been poorly timed so it's a couple of tough issues for fedex. the stock has been terrible. it's barely higher on a three-year basis >> third of its value. >> u.p.s. didn't experience the highs but they've both been running in place >> i'd buy the kitchen sink argument but this is their second full year warning in the last six months. so, you know, there's only so much left in the kitchen sink at this point >> and jim cramer has spoken about it in the past this is one of his bellwether stocks the ones you look at as an indicator. so if fedex is out early with this now, what is that -- is that the beginning of a trend for not just transportation companies but -- >> if it's not, we can look back and say they've got some particular -- >> execution issues specific to the company. >> let's talk about lyft lyft has picked up its first wall street buy recommendation before even putting out financials

you didn't miss the ipo. da davidson isn't waiting to jump in on the stock, initiating coverage with a buy rating and a $75 price target lyft is expected to price between $62 and $68 a share. >> go ahead. >> this is a watershed moment. a number of big tech unicorns going public of course the sell side community is very excited to get their hands on new research and they are getting it out before the company goes public. quite rare >> i was talking to some old timers in the newsroom back 25 years ago there was a bank in southwest, southwest bank of st. louis, that used to love to be the first one out of the gate to either raise or lower their prime rates. so they would do that. so now d.a. davidson is becoming the southwest bank of st. louis by, you know how this works. >> i remember, yes >> how do you tell -- issue a buy recommendation on a stock you can't even buy yet and put a price target on a stock that doesn't have a price >> you do know some of the

fundamentals and their prospect prospectus, filing documents, they have to disclose certain financials and try to derive a value. we know what the pricing range is going to be and what the anticipated initial market value at midpoint is these guys are saying based on the numbers and their projections, it's worth x% more on evaluation basis. what i find curious, is this -- some cynics say this is a way to pump the ipo if you're telling everybody it's worth way more than -- >> do they have a piece -- >> no. >> you think they're trying to get a little -- >> or investment banking business or -- >> the attention we're all talking about it and it's -- this is just the exercise everyone else is going to go through but there's some currency in being the first one out of the gate. >> especially if you want to develop a good relationship with management and say we're already giving you a positive valuation ahead of your company even going public >> and we've seen the same with uber >> what is it, x many times oversubscribed >> just when you thought cereal

was dead, general mills pouring out a big bowl of better than expected earnings. an 8% jump in sales in the third quarter driven by the recently acquired blue buffalo pet food we bring you all pet food news here >> we do we've spoken so much about this. this is general mills' first entree into pet food their only major unit. so incrementally, this is not a comparable they've just added to a pet unit i focus more on the haagen-dazs over at general mills but -- >> this is from your preferences or -- >> my preferences. i'm a consumer i probably add to the bottom line a consumer staples company is breaking out to the up side -- >> 25% up this year. that's crazy >> best levels in about a year at this point for general mills. >> it's outperformed consumer-driven peers. it's not considered too expensive at this point. >> also helping their business but they raised prices on a number of goods.

and that's always a risky bet for a consumer-driven company, raising prices always that risk the consumer will shy away and move to a competitor >> we'll jump to bill's favorite story. aaa reported gas prices have exploded to a national average of $2.58 per gallon. and listen to these numbers from the midwest. in wisconsin, gas is up 54 cents per gallon since january in indiana, up 64 cents a gallon in michigan, it's up 75 cents a gallon over the last two months. >> my view is the only good gasoline price is a low gasoline price. but i would say, let's remember, we've had a period now where we've had very stable gasoline prices >> even low, i would argue >> they've been relatively low >> i can't believe i consider $2.20 low, but it is historically speaking. my question now, well, we're converting to the summer blend which is more expensive and all that blah, blah, blah

we always hear those excuses >> where are the u.s. producers? aren't they supposed to be the ones that supply the amount that can bring the prices down? >> springtime is when they go through maintenance. there's always that distortion >> such an interesting point the higher the price goes, the more economically viable u.s. shale prices are and a higher break even cost than other compa countries around the world we'll not get into this idea that president trump wants low prices but where does that conflict -- >> this is where gas prices are really highest i wonder if there's a bottleneck issue in terms of getting it from the refiners out into those parts of the country >> not just that but from the oil -- the supply areas themselves out to where the refiners are to make this stuff and the transportation >> we have a fly-in news story hang on. stay right there some breaking news on the levi's ipo. let's bring in leslie picker >> hearing from three sources that levi's is expected to price

above the range they are likely to price above the range when the final decision is made after the close of market today. that would be greater than $16 a share at the high end of the range they've been marketing to investors. so $17 a share that would indicate $623 million ipo size valuation of about $6.6 billion. now i've heard that demand has been significant, that this deal is greater than ten times oversubscribed at the range. so that's what gives its underwriters more confidence that pricing above the range is a likely scenario. anything can happen with the market if it does fall off a cliff or if something that is unexpected that happens. now this could completely change things but as of right now, that's the target. pricing above the range for levi's >> leslie, thanks very much. quick reaction >> the timing could not be better in trying to cash out at this point, bringing this ipo. >> it looks like investors don't

care as much about a dual-share class structure as some others would argue. >> on top of all the innovation from silicon valley. this is a classic institution of america. >> meat and potatoes >> but the consumer exposure this is not the category we talk about as being so hot and the place to be. this is my tell for the day that they're doing quite well with this one dom chu, seema mody and bill griff eths jamie dimon will be right here live on "the exchange." we'll get his take on the fed, the economy, so much more. don't go anywhere.

welcome back to "the exchange." here are some of the movers this hour viacom is warning of at&t's directv that they may lose their channels if the two sides can't agree to a new contract by friday viacom shares are struggling down more than 5% today and on pace for their worst pace this year jeffreys is citing concerns about peak game profit and sony's bility to enter the smartphone business. the company received fda

approval for its first drug specifically designed to treat women with post-partum depression ceo jeff jonas will join jim cramer on "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. tonight. time for a cnbc news update. hi, sue. >> hello here's what's happening at this hour relatives of those killed in last week's shooting at two mosques in new zealand have begun to bury their dead hundreds of mourners gathered at a grave dessing i name t idesigs as the ceremonies got under way. beto o'rourke campaigning in new hampshire. this as he continues his tour of all of that state's counties >> i leave this meeting a better candidate, and i leave with a better hope of being able to effectively serve and deliver for this community that's why i show up everywhere, regardless of who you voted for last time. you are my fellow american before you are a republican or a democrat, you are someone with

whom i can work to make things better for everyone. >> and major league baseball opening its 2019 season in tokyo. between the seattle mariners and the oakland athletics. the crowd giving the outfielder ichiro suzuki a big, big ovation, but it was a grand slam home run by the mariners domingo santana that helped win the game for seattle. final score 9-7. you're up to date. that's the news update kelly, back to you >> sue, thanks very much up next, jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon joins us live along with american university president and former obama health and budget official silvia matthews burwell. they'll talk about everything from workforce development to the markets and the state of the enomy "the exchange" is back in two.

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economic outlook survey. executives are less bullish than a year ago kayla tausche is in washington and joined by jpmorgan chairman and ceo jamie dimon along with american university president sylvia mathews burwell for more. >> thanks so much for having us and thanks to our esteemed guests today in addition to that survey, they are also announcing a partnership, efforts under way between 15 companies, 13 universities to try to develop the 21st century curriculum for students and eventual workers for companies. so our thanks to both of you for being here to discuss that and many other issues. jamie, first the backdrop economically we've heard from lots of ceos, whether fedex, ubs, about jitters. potentially a global slowdown. and the business roundtable survey showed declining optimism is there a slowdown afoot? >> there are always jitters. i've never been in business where there weren't jitters. it's a bit of a slowdown

the business roundtable is optimistic about the future. america had less of a slowdown than the rest of the world how do you make things better? this initiative is a great example how business, government and this town can get together, create jobs for kids earning $50,000, $80,000 a year and these guys did an unbelievable thing in washington building this >> silvia, 93% of american graduates are in a job six months after graduation. so what needs to change about the degree if it's working so well already >> at american university we're very fortunate 93% of our graduates are within six months in jobs or graduate school for many, making sure we're staying connected to the needs of the business community. making sure we know what those needs are from our students. we're giving them the curriculum and tools they need. the way the partnership works is once our students complete the curriculum and have the credential, then they receive preferential treatment in terms

of internships and jobs. so they have preference when they do these credentials. it's keeping that tie healthy and good so we know what's needed in the economy and we're working to provide it. >> the first step is getting into college, which now, i know, some applicants might worry with recent news that college admissions slots are for sale. how do you put those worries to rest >> the incidents of the last weeks are very disturbing to any of us in higher education. what they've done to the image trust, we have to all realize it is an important thing, but for the vast majority of universities and the vast majority of applicants, i think they know that that is not what is happening all of us, i'm sure, are taking steps to make sure we look at our processes, make sure if there are any things we can do to prevent that. there are so many great students out there. we're in the middle of the process. our letters are going out today at american university and it is a great thing to see all these young people interested in coming >> jamie, as a parent, did it shock you? you raised three kids in

hypercompetitive new york city any pressure to tip the scales >> what i read about was shocking obviously, people want to help their kids and people get benefits just from having tutors and things like that but that kind of stuff was shocking and we have enough problems, i'll leave it to higher education to deal with >> you gave $100,000 to duke where two of your daughters went $50,000 to barnard is that a slippery slope >> i don't know if that was before or after. we tend to support anything we've ever been associated with and so i think they got in on their own rights >> i want to ask you about the fed, too we are the pregame for jay powell's decision in just a little bit the fed said it will be patient. how long do you believe the fed will be patient? >> the fed should -- i find it amazing people are shocked when the fed says they're data dependent. can you imagine them saying they're not? they're looking at current events it looks like it may be awhile

before they have to make a decision about changing interest rates. i have faith they'll do the right thing based on the data they have at the time. >> do you believe the fed is between a rock and a hard place. you raise rates too quickly. >> i think that's always been true i don't think they're between a rock and a hard place. they're trying to navigate what goes on today. what's going on in the u.s. economy is strong. this isn't like a bad thing. remind people rate goes up, it's because the economy is strong. that's not necessarily a bad thing. a strong economy is far more important than a 25 basis point effect on the economy and jobs >> the trade war could tip the u.s. into a recession. the president just said a few minutes ago that even if we get a deal with china where he says talks are going well that tariffs could stay in place for a substantial period of time how much of an overhang is that? >> i didn't hear that. i don't respond to minute-by-minute news like you guys do because i don't think it matters to tell you the truth.

we've heard from the administration they're working on very serious issues and made serious progress with china. we'd all like to see a deal done to the extent it's not done, it's not good for the global economy. i'm not sure i'd say tip into a recession but it's certainly not good and you see that reflect in the market every time trade is going well, it goes up every time it's going badly it goes down. and i have faith it's going to get an intelligent deal done, and it may take time >> are you worried the president is saber rattle with europe? >> i have been told they're making progress in europe. the president has his methods and i wouldn't go about them but it's hard to say some of these methods didn't get people to the table. both are true. we like to see to the table to conclusion and we think that's the best thing for the american economy, the global economy and the whole -- the rest of the world >> silvia, we'd like to ask you to put on your hat as a former budget and health official the u.s. cannot spend as if deficits do not matter, but the conversation in the democratic field right now is that college

should potentially be free and health care should potentially be free. do you think those two things should happen? >> i think when we talk about the issues of deficits, i'm still of the school that deficits do matter and they matter for the markets. they matter for the economy, and they matter for policy investments that we make as a nation and we have to consider you were just discussing the issue of the question of a potential recession. when we have the kind of debt to gdp ratios continuing to increase, is that a problem for our own resiliency as a nation if we go into those things so i'm of that school. do i think there are issues in health care? i think in health care, the most pressing issue we can work on, or what everyone agrees on across party lines and that is access, affordability and quality. >> do you support the six candidates who say that medicare for all is the direction the country should go in >> what i think we should do on all of these issues is focus on the substance of those three issues and that's what i've said when i was secretary and what i say now. focus on access, affordability and quality and i believe there

are steps we can take right now to make progress actually on all three of those and whether that's in the pharmaceutical space nor in the way of changing the way we pay for health care, but pay for the outcomes and those are the kinds of steps we as a nation can work on right now. >> jamie, you said that america can afford anything. can we afford $22 trillion in debt, a deficit that's nearing a trillion dollars this year, the proposals the democratic field is putting forward and potential a -- >> a couple of points. slogans are not policy and we all agree we need a lot to do on health care, on infrastructure, on skills and education. thoughtful, proper policy that needs to be executed by thoughtful, bright politicians who have to lead the population. the debt to gdp for the world is 80% of gdp in america. so it's like net debt is like $17 billion or $18 billion. it's 250% in japan so it's not what i call -- i totally agree with her it's important to have fiscal

discipline it's not an immediate issue. it's not going to put the economy into a recession tomorrow but mostly because of burgeoning health care costs we should fix the problem before it becomes a problem. it will fix itself at one point. i also think policymakers should separate we need proper business taxation and proper infrastructure and proper skills we should not spend all our time to do this but not that because you'll slow down growth. there should be both democrats, republicans need a growth agenda that we can afford to pay for if we're intelligent. >> is it a growth agenda to regulate the big technology giants do you think that should happen? >> that's a very -- people say that we made binary arguments. it's not binary. if someone has a reason where competition is unfair, maybe you need regulation. that's true for all of our businesses to me if people have legitimate complaints, people should look at where should there be fair competition? we all have to deal with

antitrust and competition and things like that i'm not an expert in tech policy, but to the extent they should do the same thing, they should look at it. >> you are an expert in managing a company under fire and the approach an expert in managing a company under fire and frankly, the atroech feels a lot like banks xa multibillion dollar fines and proposals to break up these massive companies. do you sympathize with them? >> they vpat had the benefit of the full monote. >> what advice would you offer to mark zuckerberg >> get prepared. seems like tair doihey're doingt of work in privacy, but it's a lot of work. my experience has been when you get attacked by someone, get one group, it could be every country, every ag, every regulator all at the same time so any company that's under attack or threat, they should gear up and look at it as a broad-based, extensive type of deal they have to deal with.

there are sometimes legitimate complaints you should be very, very reactive to. >> how long are you telling them to be prepare d onslaught u and are you putting forth models that show what the sum of the parts would be if you break them sunup. >> that's a whole different issue. we woul offould offer to help ao ours h that asked for help. >> one big tech giant that's getting a pat on the back is amazon for the investment it's making when you talk to students, what's the an site to go work in national landing and do you think they will be able to deliver 25,000 good paying jobs? >> i think the effort we're talking about today with the greater washington partnership is b about bringing together the needs of our community, our economy in this greater washington area with what universities provide and i thin.

91% of our students are are doing internships. they're excited about that the numbers you stated in our we know success website where we tell people after you finish your degree, in grad school or have a job, those are 90%. amazon is a great place and they're excited about it and they're excite ed about having innovation sense to the community they might be staying in >> one thing that's really important, one of the reasons people come here is they have great universities when you have a company, they need people to prepare meals an clean floors to marketing people to accountants to service that whole ecosystem. you can lift up the whole community and affordable housing. you don't overenterprise stuff like that. these are huge benefits.

it's because the place is hospitable to business and wants to create jobs for kids and the health of the university system. university systems are often, the ecosystem is a huge success. you could look at boston, silicon valley, parts of new york look at washington, d.c. >> did new york make a mistake in pushing amazon away and how much more are you investing here because of the expectation they'll grow more here >> of course it would have been 100,000 jobs. which would have been jobs across the whole speck strum the mistake people make about new york, the tax benefit, new york has the highest corporate rate, individual rates those are a reduction of the rates per time period. i think it would have been b hugely beneficial for new york if they don't want it, so be it. they could go elsewhere. >> jamie, your dexterous in your political speak.

you had a dinner with your reporters night. >> way off the record. >> the fact of the dinner was reported, but funny blog on deal breaker on monday said that your workforce announcement was one flag lapel pin short of a campaign event is this you test iing the waters >> no, i am a patriot at heart the it's far more important than jpmorgan and we are making a full effort to help anywhere we can help our country we announce e ed the 350 millio program around the world it's got to work locally we're going out with rps to local university, community schools, mayors and so we can create the same kind of ecosystem that's working here to lift up those communities. >> what do you hope president trump tells the business round table tomorrow >> my experience with president trump is this that he says whatever he wants to say >> we appreciate your time today. thank you so much. >> thank you >> kelly, back to you. >> great stuff appreciate hearing views from both of them

that's it for the exchange today. but do not go anywhere the fed decision on rates is moments away followed by the live press conference from jerome powell. i'll join tyler and melissa for that it begins right now. >> thanks, we'll see you shortly. stocks are down ahead of the fed's latest decision. will powell give investors a boost with his news conference let's bring in david kelly, rebecca patterson. also a cnbc contributor p and paul, senior fellow at cornell law school former chief economist at pimco. welcome to you all rebecca, i'll start with you how much more dovish can powell get and at what point does that turn into bearishness for the markets? >> the debate today is do we go down for a median dot or hike this year or zero. i think that's, slice the

baloney thin here. it's going to be the tone of the press conference how patient are we on inflation and the details around the balance sheet. it's not clear exactly how much detail we're going to get in today's meeting versus a meeting in may or june people are going to be looking at thin bbloaloney today the details will be determine how market reacts today. bigger picture though, a lot of dovishness is getting price d in when you look at credit market >> "power lunch" serves thin bologna. you said something interesting on kelly's show. that is that from where you sit, chairman powell has declared victory. >> yes, he is. >> what do you mean? >> when they went to zero and stayed there for a year after year after year and once we

emerged from that dark period, they wanted to get off of zero i look at the last three years in many respects is close your eyes and get to two. and they did it. now they had a higher neutral number than two when they started, but now they brought down neutral they've taken up rates and merged, so they're declaring victory they've gotten back to neutral. >> it's this two and a half to three and a half >> they're there >> he said in september, we don't think we're that close >> that's, well actually, if you parse his words carefully. he didn't actually change his what he was saying very much between september and early december but what i think is fed is, i agree with paul. they basically say they have, you know, if you step on the brake, you do it because you see a crash or because you've reached your destination

they're saying this is where we want to be i think what they're going to try and do is set up a situation where people aren't watching the fed you know, every other meeting this year. they want to get to you know, the rough neutral. i think they'd like to not to raise rates at all for the rest of the year, just try and coast a while. hopefully we're cyclical plateau. what they're trying to achieve we are at a plateau, we want stable interest rates. >> do you think we'll get guidance as to when normalization is reached they indicated they would announce that sometime this year. later. >> i think in the press conference, he's going to get asked about it so he's going to have to say something. the question is do we get the minute details in other words, what's the composition of their reinvestments, if they stop reducing the balance sheet, now they have to invest positions. what are they buying that's going to matter a lot to the markets. i would be surprised if we get

that today i think today is going to be about the timing and where they're trying to stop either by a date or by a number or maybe both. maybe we get that today. >> you said rebecca, very dovish feeling to it. so if they say anything that leans to the aukish side, those dots don't come down >> we're used to the fed put tig in more hikes than we've received that's kind of been with what we've gotten for the i know, eight years or so. it's been a while. so if we had one dot, i don't think this would be horribly disruptive to the market because i think the same sentiment is still there and we haven't even gotten to this transition to the new fed ree iwo jima probably until the end of this year, it's something the market's pricing in now we're not only pricing in a fid pause today. i think investors are pricing in a transformation of the policy that could suggest they're going to be low with long with lots of os in the middle >> they're going to have to downgrade their language about

the economy. can they say the market is really strong? >> going into this decision, s&p down 13. nasdaq down 20 let's get to steve liesman for the fed's decision on interest rates. steve. >> four big headlines from the federal reserve. one, no change in rates. remains two and a a quarter, two and a half two, they downgraded three, they said the run off will end in september. four, the fed went to zero rate hikes in 2019 from a forecast of two. let me go through them the fed now, medium hikes for this career, 2.4%. no hikes this year that's down from 2.9%. a single hike is built in for '20 and '21 and rates will remain below neutral of 2.8% through 2021 nine fed officials