will point fingers and say, you knew there was going to be 30% to 40% more people >> the greenspan analogy >> why didn't you get in front of it? >> thank you so much great to see you and get your thoughts time to join tyler and melissa for "power lunch." it starts now. i'm melissa lee along with tyler mathisen the market flashing the biggest recession sign since before the financial crisis could the avalanche of ipos be the last great hope for the bulls or signaling a top here. record flooding across the midwest decimating america's farm industry and it may get a lot worse. we're live on the ground with the very latest and the impact on the farmers, as well as the u.s. economy mortgage rates sinking to new lows here as we sit down in the crucial home buying season the spring selling season. how low will rates go? "power lunch" starts right now

and welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." i'm tyler mathisen glad you could join us on this friday afternoon a selloff day on the street. we are now near session lows the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq having their worst drop since the very beginning of the year small cap stocks getting crushed today. the russell 2,000 is down about 3% and also on track for its worst day of 2019. but everyone is watching the big move today in bonds. and it is a significant one. treasury yields plunging a couple of the places on the yield curve inverting. we'll have more on that ahead. kelly. in this hour, with this big selloff on wall street and global growth fears bringing out the bears big time bob is following the action from the floor. bob? >> where did our rally go? yesterday we were all happy and the top of the s&p 500 and 2.4%

from the historic high 2.4%. what happened? we got mugged by slower global growth again this happened several times. remember the whole bull narrative, the fed and the central banks have our back and the tariffs will go away and the chinese will find some way to stimulate their way out of the slow down over there and the europeans are, well, that's a problem. this is going to be the bottom and all those lousy economic numbers we had for the last several months well, what we really have right now is a dubbish fed that's for sure. and that's now priced into the market the president made it clear, no immediate reduction in tariffs that's a problem and the european manufacturing data we got, particularly germany. it was so bad. that ten-year bond over there essentially went to zero here in the u.s. ten-year three-month curve is inverted and triggered vague recession concerns for 2020. the bottom line is this. the bull narrative is running up against reality and economic growth narrative stays with us, it means stocks are pricy at

this level finally, just take a look at today. you can see all the low volatility defensive names verizon, duke, pepsi, coke, all outperforming and names that have higher levels of volatilities are typically tech names and we call them amd and micron and netflix all trading to the down side back to you. >> thank you very much. yield curve concerns are one of the concerns and rick santelli tracks the action rick >> we'll get to the yield curves i put it two day so you can get perspective. we have established what looks like the low yield intraday at 241. we moved up to 246 what is odd is our yields seem to have bottomed at least for today, but stocks are still, as you pointed out, closer to the lows of the session. so, we want to monitor that relationship ever so closely we always talk about etfs like the hyg.

a barometer of anxiety here's one we chart. remember, it has been in a zip code of a six-month high you can see it is deteriorated quite a bit. take countries that have boat loads of issues going on like the uk let's look at the 10-year guiil. it happens to be at the lowest level since september of 2017 as that chart shows yield curve first three month to ten year what is interesting about this, it's barely negative, but the implications still loom large. since that bounce i talked about, it actually has gone from ten basis points to 12 these charts start in '07 because ten basis points or even the zero mark and slightly below in both of these take you back basically a dozen years. kelly, back to you >> we don't like those comparisons, rick. thank you very much. i asked bill miller what he thought about the yield curve inversion and the impact across stocks the probability of a recession

with only daily inversion is under 30%. the real risk, he said, would be if the fed tightened with and after they digest the inversion over the next week or so the path of least resistance for stocks should be higher. guys >> so, what do investors like you do now let's bring in ron and adviser and chief investment officer with oppenheimer funds let me start with you. in light of what we're seeing with respect to the yield curve, the difference between the ten year and the three-month, particularly it's a small dip into negative territory, but it usually signaled trouble ahead or it often has, yet, you say you believe the current economic cycle in the u.s. has five more years to run why? >> indeed. well, i think reading too much into the yield curve is going to be a mistake at this point it's really not the shape of the

curve that matters, as much as rates. one proof point in that regard is just look at housing and housing data came out and single family homes are doing pretty well the last time when the curve was inverting and the fed was tightening, you saw that i think a combination of low level of rates and the fed on an easing path to some extent negates what we could have read out of the flattening of the curve. >> ron, let me bring you in and get beyond the idea of the flattening of the yield curve and into some of the other, he's right about the housing numbers that came out today. >> last week's housing numbers >> last week and last month's were not so good let's talk about manufacturing both in the u.s. and europe signaling a significant slow down the european numbers as big a drop in six years or something like that. >> china still weakening and

then the possibility that the uk crashes out of the european by mid-april. a 1997 style event where you have external pressures that forced the fed to alter their plans with respect to interest rates and something of a domestic slow down, which is not nearly as bad as the rest of the world, but you do have risks rising everywhere else and that does create a negative feedback i think the fed is right to pause. the yield curve, a little strange because when powell held his news conference earlier this week and i don't want to get too far into the weeds reinvest the proceeds come is a stealth, quantitative easing and that is bringing rates down because the fed will start buying, again. you have a demand side pull as opposed to the fed pushing short rates up above long rates. >> christian, i suspect you might jump in here ron alludes to 1997 and it was a serious event, certainly but equities continue to run for several years after that >> oh, absolutely. i think 1997 wasn't really an

economic correction. and i think that is the key point. economies globally are slowing down no doubt about that. that had been happening all of fourth quarter and we're just finally seeing those numbers and that's probably the reason why the fed is pausing but at the end of the day, given the level of support that the fed is going to provide and basically every central bank is going to provide before it is all said and done, it's very unlikely for us to see or foresee a significant global recession. i think the pmi numbers reflect the fact that china is slowing down but even there, they are down the easing path in a meaningful way. the bottom line, are there risks out there? absolutely can we scare ourselves silly if we wanted to absolutely at the end of the day, what the markets have done over the last few years or last few months, if not last few years, is basically react to the fact that policy is extraordinarily supported. and that's the primary driver and will remain the primary

driver >> that was a narrative that we had yesterday when markets were higher across the board. right. it was easy money. so, the growth trade is back on. we'll have the playbook of two years ago. you know, so, what has really changed and which narrative should we believe in at this point? >> i think there is an extraordinary fight going on now. this is going to be a large battle between central banks who are trying and have been trying for ten years to reflate the global economy with only limited success. and you're seeing in certain parts of the world outright defrad deflation. you see that and manifesting itself and negative interest rates around the world $20 trillion worth of sovereign debt carries negative yields and that tells you something about the state of the economy we have been outperforming in a meaningful way the question is, do these other spots, these other weak spots catch up to us and bring us down as opposed to the rest of the world moving up? >> i want to get your thought, ron, before we go. yesterday the president took a

shot at the fed chairman, yet again. chairman powell. today he appoints steven moore to the fed he has been a trump supporter. helped architect, if i can use that as a verb, his tax proposal along with larry kudlow and others what to you think? >> you know, a lot of times we worry about the quantity and cost of money when it come ts to the federal reserve and worry about the cost of the board and if they're sufficiently skilled and i know they will get angry with me for saying this. i do not think he should be sitting on the board of the federal reserve. >> because >> i don't think he is a great economist and a point of view that may not blend well with others at the fed. >> is there a value as having somebody more of a rouser there to shake up the consensus? >> that's not the way one would hope yes, if they have, i think, the types of credentials that prove they have been right for the

right reasons over time. i don't think that stephen necessarily meets those criteria >> gentlemen, thank you very much have a good weekend. may all your brackets be number one >> i'm not even playing. apple couldn't hold on to its earlier gains as the dow plunged more than 450 points it's down about 1% right now investors are getting ready for next week's big event. josh lipton is in san francisco with what investors need to know going into this, josh. >> so, kelly, as always, apple is tight lipped about what it will unveil on monday. but here is what we expect a new video streaming service. that will include new big budget original shows and it's funding itself also sell other video streaming subscriptions and take a cut of those transactions also anticipated, a netflix of news service reportedly featuring content from "wall street journal" and not "wall

street journal" and note new york post. does that mean we could see the co-branded credit card from the two companies. taking a step back why is ceo tim cook offering these new services now tech analyst ben of creative strategies reminds us that fans do own $1.4 billion of apple's iphones and upother hardware so, has to keep adding more products and services. keeping all those fans happy, loyal and engaged. if he does, there are clear benefits one, he keeps those fans loyal to his platform. discouraging them to move to rivals and he gives consumers, if these services are a hit, another reason to buy iphones in the future melissa? >> thank you very much, josh as we saw there, apple shares are down is%, but check out for the year the performance outpaces the market stock is 22% and also the best performer in the dow and the largest company and wall street remains bullish and apple with over half the analysts giving a buy rating what is at stake for apple heading into the big event on

monday dan ackerman and angela zeeno. he has a buy rating on apple and increased price target from 195 to 210 gentlemen, great to have you both yesterday was a huge day for apple and not just regaining the throne or whatever you want to call it. it was up 4% going into this and a lot of positive analyst notes from those who turned more bullish on the promise of the streaming service which apple has yet to unveil. we don't know many details on this this new content service should drive lower churn and this is going to be a pivotal step in driving the fly wheel of the services revenues. dan, what do we know about this elusive streaming service on which so many bullish analysts are getting even more bullish? >> and clearly something apple really wants to focus on at this event because this week they cleared the decks of a bunch of other projects they introduced new ipads and new airpods all the week before their event which is

unprecedented for them they really want people to focus on this. the question is, is it going to be an apple exclusive thing? do you have to have an apple device to use it is it available to a wider audience, which is a smart idea. how much of it will be a netflix style service or a handful of shows and reselling you netflix and hbo which they do through the app store. >> angela, what are you exp expectations and what do you expect for the streaming service? >> the expectations are rising here likely because of what apple has done this week and that is kind of putting all the hardware to the side here. essentially putting out all this new great stuff via press releases where they would typically have a spring event to unveil these products. so, our view is, you know, going into this event here, expect to hear a lot of commentary at least we hope, on bundling opportunities. what is apple going to unveil

from a content perspective, as well as from a third-party content perspective. i think more importantly, will apple do anything where they combine some of this stuff with let's say an apple music or what have you where we think could add additional stickiness and potentially drive upside to other services out there >> you know, anglo, i'm curious. we're at a point in the stock where you have to look back at the end of november or so and you wonder whether or not the things that brought apple's stock down during the last couple months of the year, if those issues have resolved themselves in terms of the highest cost phone and in terms of softness in china and the concern of the un ability of the company to are customers able to look through because they are unveiling a new streaming service? >> i think a number of things here one, the excitement surrounding the streaming service at the top of the list. when you look at the multiple.

our 2020 estimate, that is pretty much in line where the stock has traded here over the last decade. but that being said, we think, you know, something else investors have to look at is the fact that we probably hit max pain point on the iphone side of things we think you're likely going to see 180 to 190 million unit on the iphone side of things this year that being said, a major catalyst ahead in 2020 and that is, of course, going to be 5g. we think at this point the uncertainty surrounding cell phones and that is in the stock and investors, to your point, already looking ahead to a potential great cycle in 2020. >> you don't sound like you have a buy rating on the stock, angelo if you have to look to 2020 and it is march of 2019 and you have a buy rating. >> i will say this typically when you get towards the lower end, towards the trough in an iphone cycle, you want to see, you'll see some

sort of multiple because the expectation and better times ahead. i will also say the comps get much more favorable as we exit kind of that quarter and kind of lapping next year. lot of reasons to really get excited about the stock right now. >> gentlemen, appreciate it. thank you. thank you. boeing one of the stocks filling those declines the embattled plane maker just lost a $6 billion order for its 737 max jets could other airlines follow and cancel their orders, too. the major averages down across the board and the nasdaq down 2%. financials, materials and back om correction today down 10% fr recent highs. internal energy is down today, as well. we'll have more after this quick break. markets

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a get your questions answered by awesome experts store. it's a now there's one store that connects your life like never before store. the xfinity store is here. and it's simple, easy, awesome. to eamon javers. the information we're getting is that the federal government posted a $234 billion budget deficit in february. that's worst than expectations the treasury is saying that federal spending in february was $401 billion, that was up 8% from the same month in 2018. while receipts and this is why there is a deficit, receipts were just $167 billion, up 7% compared to february of 2018 the previous monthly high for

the federal deficit was in february of 2012 $232 billion so, an all-time high monthly federal budget deficit of $234 billion in february of this year as compared to the previous all-time high which was in 2012. $232 billion at that time. >> back over to you. thanks, eamon javers. new development s overnight on boeing and news on a new 737 max software upgrade let's get to phil labeau with details. >> the cancellation for the 737 max. the first order cancellation this comes to us from indonesia, the national airline of indonesia canceling an order with a book value of $4.9 billion for almost 50 737 maxes. meanwhile, boeing this weekend

will host customer meetings. meeting with those airlines that have 737 maxes as they prepare for a rollout of new software to fix some of the problems identified with the 737 max. by the way, american airlines pilots will test out that software in a simulator. still blow back against boeing for what happened with regard to these reports over the last couple of days about the fact that this is a company that you had to essentially get an upgrade or pay for an upgrade for certain alerts in the cockpit. the company out with a statement saying airlines are delivered with a baseline configuration which includes training materials that meet industry safety norms and most customer requirements customers then may choose additional options such as alerts, indications to customize their airliplanes to support thi individual operations or requirements one last note, guys. if you look at shares of boeing, remember on wednesday there is a hearing, a senate hearing that

will be looking at the faa certification process. guys, back to you. >> phil, thanks. phil lebeau bringing you up to speed. still ahead, stocks posting their biggest one-day drop in two months the key levels you need to watch from here. and a different story for the home builders. a lot of these names are rallying as mortgage rates drop big time following the ten-year yield. pulte, dr horton and toll brothers all in the green. the future of technology investing

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hello, everybody i'm sue herera here is your cnbc news upicate at this hour the treasury department will further relax penalties on people who did not pay enough income taxes in 2018 they can avoid penalties if they paid 80% of their income taxes that is down from the 90% requirement that applies and the 80% threshold that the irs announced in january american astronauts nick hague and ann mcclain working outside the international space station replacing nickel hydrogen batteries on a pair of the station's solar arrays

everything went right according to plan. the u.n. world food program has started airlifting food to stranded people in mozambique after that country was hit by severe flooding. the agency says as many as 1.7 million people will need food aid over the next three months >> continue distributing food and also in isolated areas around the city. we have deployed helicopters and a cargo plane and has about 1700 tons of food on the trucks moving towards mozambique. >> you are up to date. that is the news update. ty, back to you. we'll go now to mike santate stock exchange >> the financial stocks as the-year-old curve between the three-month and treasury note inverted for the first time since 2007 this seen as a worrying sign as a looming recession and putting

the squeeze on profit margeps. here to size up the financials for us at the moment craig, obviously, the underperformance of this group has been profound. is it at the point yet where it's so bad it's good that we could be looking for some kind of relief? >> mike, i don't think so. we're still underweight financials at this time. if you look at the chart of the xlf we brought in today, you can see we're making lower lows and higher highs in here the recent price action since the summer has been nothing more than a relief rally. from our perspective, no, we're not interested in the banks and look at the individual company charts again, they also look like relief rallies and they're about to roll over in the yield curve. still very concerning and head wind for the banks at this point. >> michael, certainly a head wind on a fundamental basis on a sentiment basis. but did the stocks look like any value is starting to emerge here would you be looking to pick any up

>> i would not no the underperformance of the banking sector is really starting to accelerate since the fed went dubbish earlier this week when you think about it, it makes perfect sense. banks make money by making loans if the fed is seeing a weaker economy, loan growth is going to be tough and the spread that they're going to make on the loans they can give out or will give out is going to be compressed so, banks are going to struggle and be quite challenged for growth so, from our perspective, we will stay underweight at the classic banking sector we'll be very selective in the stocks we pick and we would much rather play in the thintech area paypal, visa and mastercard. >> so, some of those stocks are perhaps disrupting the traditional banking sector michael, craig, thanks for your time today more trading nation, head to our website or follow us on twitter at trading nation. melissa, back to you. >> thanks, mike. oil sliding in the selloff

the oil market is closing for the day. let's get to the cumoddy desk. >> not just hitting the market, wti crude down 1.6%. trading currently at $59 also pushing oil prices to the down side, the stronger dollar trading just under 97. that is a key psychological level that investors watch off its december low of $42, but still sending energy stocks to the down side and today's losses the s&p energy sector is trading back in correction territory and epicoo in mind the oil and gas exploration stocks on pace for the worst week since late december and you can see some of the major oil players there closed down by 2% to 3%. tyler, back to you >> seema, appreciate it. thank you very much. joining us now is jim, tgm institutional services managing

director and cnbc contributor. so, should we be surprised in light of the economic data that came out today that oil after a 34% rally since late december pulls back by a percent or two >> i'm not sure we can blame it on the economic data today, but i can say, i believe for sure. you know, december 24th was the low in the stock market and the low in crude oil and both of them had these huculian runs that topped out yesterday. to think we can pull back seems reasonable to me make no mistake about it crude and stocks can trade together now, if you want to throw in the fact that the fed pivoted to weigh easy two days ago and even because of that, the dollar can't break. the dollar is actually rallied 1% since the low we put in two days ago crude has to look at that and go, wow, the dollar is going higher and that's because the euro is still cratering, so crude really, it is time to take some profit, i think

goes back down to around 57sh. >> so, it's a direct response to signals that are out there indicating that the global economy is slowing, including the fed, including the fed basically saying, we're not going to raise interest rates at all this year. >> i think it's somewhat of an indirect response. but, yeah, let's call it a direct response, too sometimes the story that moves it all it's really doing is uncovering the lot of longs that have built up in the last three months and sometimes the story is compelling. and the story certainly is compelling a stronger dollar and a global slow down and absolutely a compelling story but the move today in crude and probably the move that will continue it is going to be some position squaring coupled with that story >> jim, thanks very much jim, we appreciate it. good to see you. all right. we are watching the selloff. the dow is down more than 300 points it's 14 points off of the session lows hit earlier today

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we have a selloff on wall street at this hour. small caps worth noting getting battered falling below the 50-day moving average. let's find out the key averages to watch joining us is bill and partner of market strategist with bell curve trading. great to have you with us on a day like today let's take a look to where we can find some support. >> okay. first of all, let's talk a little bit about the storylines here i think this rally off the late december lows is still in tact this is the bigger picture chart

right here so, there's two kind of things here we want to think about. that ral ea oly off the late der lows that show go retesting the old highs. and those old highs come in right around the march 2009 targets. two themes here. the short term move off the december lows which is still overall bullish and then when that converges with the objective of these march 2009 targets. and here is the rally off the 2009 lows here you can see the low. now, the s&p has the most juice in it. i think the s&p could go to 3,300, 3,400 if there's a silver lining here, it's going to be the s&p so, that one still to me is the most bullish of all the markets out there. but this is that big picture view there you can still see a decent upside there that's not the case with the dow and the nasdaq >> let's look at some of those charts there

we could forward the chart there we go. >> okay. this is basically the shorter term this is the dow off the december lows here. you can see, this is december lows and anywhere in here around 2505, 2506 is where we should see decent support and i wouldn't be surprised if we go back to the old highs. 2961 this is kind of the shorter term view here where you're looking at the rally off the late december lows. dow, s&p, nasdaq those are all in good shape. the real drama here are fog goio be when the short-term december moves run into the targets that are still out there. here's a good example in the dow. you have the 2009 lows here. fair value right in here you tend to be symmetric around that you can see the 2009 target right up here. you basically hit 2705 i expect the market to go back and retest those highs, but you're going to run into a brick

wall there, which is the march 2009 target. a lot of people think, hey, we dodged a bullet in december. market had a big dow move and those march 2009 targets are still all out there. so, when we get back here around this 27000 area, that's when you see how this whole thing plays out for the next six months to a year or so >> let's also look at the nasdaq, if we can. >> okay. here's the naz 100 off the late december lows here you know, you've got good, well, actually, this is composite. we have good support here. around 7500. and i expect we go back and retest those highs around 8133 so, again, the rallies off the late december lows all still look good even with a day like today. but the point is, once you go back and retest those highs. you're going back to the march 2009 targets and those are still out there. okay what we saw in october, november, december, that, you know, potentially is just a

coming attraction for what happens when this whole march 2009 rally rolls and the key to me is really the s&p. can that hold everything together and give us one more good push before we end? nasdaq 100 here. again, this is the long term 2009 you have fair value right in here and you can see, basically, came right back to the 2009 target i talked about this months before it happened i talked about the whole 2009 rally rolling over and being led by large cap tech. that is exactly what happened. i expect the nas 100 to go back to to 7700 we'll see where the december rally performs >> bottom line s&p 500, 3400 or so >> that to me would be the stretch objective, melissa still has big ups, but the dow and the nasdaq are done off the 2009 lows. so, it's going to be a case where either the s&p drags the

dow or not higher or the dow and nas drag the s&p lower >> real test in the next six months or so >> yes, absolutely >> bill of bell curve. the price of wheat is falling 11% over the last six months why? trade tensions with china are persisting and this combined with historic flooding in the midwest. how low could ag prices go that's next. does your wealth manager measure up? a cfa charterholder does. they have the investment expertise to unlock opportunities other advisers might not see. learn what a cfa charterholder can do for you,

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officials are estimating nearly $1.5 billion in total losses and farmers are being hit the hardest. more than $800 million in crop and cattle losses. with us to discuss the economic impact of all this devastation is john hanson, president of the nebraska farmers union john, welcome. >> welcome to you and thanks for your interest in this story. >> for sure. this comes on a day, john, i just read this article that says america's farmers are living through the worst economic crisis in 30 years driven by low commodity prices, trade war pressures and record flooding. would you, is that about right you guys are a hardy bunch, you put up with years like this all the time is this really now one of the worst times you have lived through? >> i have been at this a long time and this is the worst economic downturn that we've had since the mid-1980s. so, we have just gotten through five years of at or below the cost of production commodity prices and next year doesn't look to be any better. so we have a lot of farmers and

ranchers in trouble. we suspect fi5% to 10% of our farmers will not get their loans renewed. net farm income this year is half of what it was in 2013. >> john, the president has really made a point of how much he loves farmers, but have his policies been a detriment? do you support the president >> well, it really depends when you really get down to which particular policy. is there a need to revisit our policies relative to china yes. is there a need to update and take a look at our trade policies yes. that doesn't mean that we're necessarily always in agreement with how he goes at it or the particulars of what he thinks the fix is >> now we have this flooding and what is the bigger impact? you know, obviously, the flooding is, these are issues you guys deal with time and again. this one is pretty severe, isn't it and as i understand it, this

comes, there is actually a lot of stockpiled agricultural goods because of the tariff and trying to get ahead it all came to a head here, didn't it? >> it really did this is a 500-year flood so, we just scoured and cleaned out and ran water through the 500-year flood plain nobody even knew what that looked like. it's substantially larger than the 100-year flood planin so there is destruction where it has never been before. five rivers that set new, all-time levels for the flood stage height so, this is the worst natural disaster in our state's history. this is going to be a very difficult and long recovery period and our ag economy was struggling already so, the $400 million of losses to livestock, $440 million to

crop are estimates at this point, as the process goes forward. those numbers may well grow. >> let me ask you a real quick question, if i might quick answer how did we get in this situation where prices are upside down as you mentioned a moment ago and that situation predated the flooding and the tariffs how did we get in that situation? quick answer, please >> our foreign policy and our trade policy creates a situation where we have a permanent surplus and that surplus, which should be a blessing, has been a curse. because it's been used to help price our domestic prices both in the united states and around the world. and, so, we're seeing prices that are habitually depressed. last year the price of my corn at my local was $3.30. that's what i sold all of my corn for when i started farming in 1973. >> all right john, thank you very much. john hanson, we appreciate it. home builders one of the few

bright spots today climbing as mortgage rates continue to fall that's usually a tonic for home builders we'll talk to a mortgage broker about his best strategies for home buyers during this home buying and selling season. as we head to break, check out the s&p sector performance today. three in the green led by utilities, which had an intraday high earlier real estate and consumer staples coming along for the ride. this is your invitation to a higher standard of luxury. this is the invitation to lexus sales event. lease the 2019 es 350 for $379 a month for 36 months. now thru march 31st. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

welcome back to "power lunch. "selloff with one hour until the closing bell the dow is down by just under 1% at the hour and off the session lows this is pushing many investors, selloff that is, toward treasuries is this good news for those trying to buy a home let's look at the smart ways to buy a house in the busy spring home buying season joining now, diana olick and matt weaver, cross country mortgage loan officer and vp of sales. diana, lower rates are great and doesn't that tell us that the economy is slowing and spook

buyers >> exactly we did see that sharp drop in rates in january and a big boost of home sales today reported in february but looking forward and rates to drop further the reason they drop is because of trouble in the economy here and abroad so you have to weigh that, will consumers still feel good about a huge investment if they're concerned about the broader economy. >> matt, in the market to buy a home, you are very excited seeing rates fall before our eyes and so when you're taking a look at the ten-year yield, all trained that mortgages are tied to the 10-year most closely and watching that drop, how long -- what is a rule of thumb seeing that yield drop and when you see that result in a lower mortgage rate >> well, it's very difficult to actually time that what i think home buyers have to focus is rates tumbled half a percent from where they were just a few months ago which creates such a wonderful opportunity for them to take advantage of that and step into

the marketplace. >> matt, i'm wondering can you can talk about strategies for existing home buyers we have been debating of refinancing or recassiting what are the best ways to take advantage of how low rates are here >> absolutely. i mean, the first thing that they should be doing is really talking with a professional. whether it be by phone or sitting down with them and going through their own strategy every personal situation is permized so whether it's a refinance or catch out, there's different variables and scenarios that homeowners take advantage of the tumbling rates. >> is there any rule of thumb, diana, though? if you just bought a house and have a 15-year fixed mortgage -- >> for example. >> within the past couple of years. >> are we talking about kelly? >> rate in the $4.25%. >> 3, 3. >> is there a rule of thumb to look at maybe refinancing could

be right for you just even in terms of drop in north rate. >> just have to sit down and do the math, the extension of the loan term, the type you get into and what the monthly payments are going to be. if it doesn't offset the cost to refinance, don't bother but a different type of loan seeing real big savings that you could invest in something higher yield than throwing it into the house then that's a good idea and also note that you can get even lower rates on adjustable rate mortgages. it's a very bad name in the housing crash but you can get them fixed for ten years and depending on how long you stay in the home, if you're planning to be there for five years, you could readjust to an a.r.m. >> a fixed a.r.m. >> ten years they stay fixed. >> five, seven - >> by that point - >> whatever you need. >> might be moving. >> at some point in that ten years, refinance. >> new cycle. >> i think i'm getting strategies right here. >> all right

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welcome back take a look at markets seeing the dow down more than 1%

today and 200 points off the lows now nasdaq still worst performer. >> the market seems to be stabilizing a bit here at 264. been one of the worst days in several weeks but maybe understandably we have come a long, long way. we have a couple of nasty numbers today. yield curve stuff which i hate to talk about it wonky. >> it sounds very wonky. >> when the yield curve -- it has been a fairly reliable signal of a recession. >> of course, the financials feeling the most paint here. worth taking a look at the performance over the past week not just today regionals are down 10% this week and basically gleaning here from the message from the fed chairman as well as the inversion of the yield curve is that banks will not have the economic growth and the loan growth might not come in and making the loans not making much money off them real pain there for financials. >> i like the point of still making money in strong parts of

the country and you have to be in those parts of country. >> you will be rooting for virginia, won't you? i'm wearing my orange and blue tie. >> just for you. >> thank you. >> thank you for watching "power lunch. . >> "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ it is the final hour of trade. welcome. a move in bonds, shake in stocks, global slowdown fears spooking investors where to find buying opportunities. "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ welcome to the "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost alongside sara eisen. just under one hour left of trade. red across the screens over 1% of