final check of the markets dow futures up by 20 points. s&p futures up by 2. the nasdaq up fractionally up by less than one point. a little improvement over where we have seen at different points of the morning but relatively close to the flat line that does it for us today. join us tomorrow right now time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm david faber with jame cramer and we're live from the new york stock exchange carl has the morning off let's give you a look at futures. half hour from now, get started with trading for this week of course, coming off, well, major averages posting weekly losses in two of the past three weeks is where we stand as we see we're going to have perhaps the slightly higher open our road map this morning starts with what's been pressuring stocks, at least in the most recent sessions. that being the global growth threat stocks, as i said, coming off

the second worst day of the year after the yield curve inverted for the first time in more than a decade plus, no collusion the mueller investigation comes to a close, lifting a cloud over the trump presidency and today's show time for apple, the technology giant entering the streaming wars, going to unveil a lot of different potential offerings in a few hours at apple stocks are trying to shake off concerns about a slowdown in global growth, this after a sell-off on friday, where we watched the ten year and three-month yields inverting and that sparked investor worries that a recession could be on the horizon as that typically can be something that presages that as we head into the final trading week of march, the nasdaq and s&p are still in positive territory so far this month. the dow, though, it is being dragged down by the problems at boeing which boeing kind of accelerate

during the week i was gone the indonesian government trying to say -- airlines trying to say, no thank you, we don't want the planes we ordered. overall, not a good day friday as we entered this week. what are your thoughts. >> i think that we began to see the process of when it comes to high growth, those stocks being sold the reason i point that out, typically you get the yield -- you get some sort of inversion, you get this split between companies you know whose stocks do well, the economy slows and say sell the banks and industrials. the group most hard hit was the group that correlates with pinterest and lyft this is the service now splunk work date contingent those will be stocks that will be going higher because they can make the numbers no matter what. i'm starting to see genuine selling of stocks in order to make room for new stocks >> you are >> yes, i am >> you talked about that a number of times, pointed to the size of the offerings, it's lyft

later this week, pinterest soon after, uber not long after that. but i still have a hard time believing that you really sell stocks to make room for ipos. >> i think there is not a lot of new money that came in during this run here. i know that the selling did seem to coincide with the success of the levi deal, which, like, wow if i can get in on these, i can make some money. >> surprisingly strong >> they priced well. >> not like they have enormous top line growth there. >> i agree with you. levi is not a company that is, like, pegasus, one of these cloud -- >> regardless of how much pinterest, uber and lyft raise together, that is not a large sum of money compared to the market caps of -- >> true. i'm saying there is a vertical that people are selling. then there was the banks were so horrible, david, you could -- they burned your retinas

there is a group you need a china deal, a group you need some sign of the economy doing well, and that -- i think most of them do look, we had walmart, was really good, big change costco was really good, that does matter. then people thought that nike on friday, david, on thursday night, wasn't that good in the u.s. i disagree with that look, mr. market as some people like to call it would say that i'm wrong, that nike wasn't that good i thought nike was good. >> what do we make of continued concerns about slowing growth if not lack entirely of growth in europe. >> look, i think it is the growth thesis is here to stay until brexit i know china slowed. numbers from germany are terrible people love to talk about how that they're paying you to take bonds now in germany the countries aren't showing any desire to print money in order to get more expansion.

it really is interesting to see president xi go to italy and say, listen, we will help you out, and the italians embraced that, european martial plan from the chinese, that's something to watch, you know our president can't stand them >> no, well, belton road initiative continues around the world. >> silk highway. >> brings us to china. not like anything has changed in the last week or so. >> not really. >> you said it to joe on your segment there at the end of "squawk box." >> right >> you maybe were hearing more from those who are more -- >> soft camp can't help itself it just has to talk to reporters. and the reporters have to start recognizing, i mean, not that i'm saying, hey, i've been played, but they are -- the soft camp is really getting the word out that everything is going well the hard camp is kind of saying, listen, if anything, things have gotten worse and we're going to insist the tariffs stay on

we don't trust and we don't verify, quite a different twist on president reagan's trust but verify >> wrap it up for me with a little bow here, given all of those different concerns and how they're impacting different parts of the market, is there one at which you're focused either as particularly good short right now or particularly good place to be. >> i was focused on boeing last week i think there is enough to go around for everybody i'm focused on apple apple is going to -- apple stock is up today ahead of the bundle. i think that's a shame that's a setup it is a setup. i think that people will blow out of that stock, nine ways to sunday, unless they announce something that is so compelling that they say, listen, i would like to short it, but i want the bundle we don't know. >> we don't. >> it is more tightly wrapped them that people realize. >> interest to it today, good reporting there. and you and i will spend -- we spent a lot of time reporting on it we'll talk about that as well. it is really important for any number of different reasons. >> geez, i mean, largest cap,

got to do something right. we got a couple of downgrades in the semis today. texas instruments and analog devices. tech moved a great deal. and there are certain techs you have to watch. amazon you start seeing these perspecti of lyft and pinterest, they're paying amazon web services the numbers they're paying are staggering if people want to know a way to play the ipos, you think it is investment bank, it is amazon. >> let's get to another big news story, the last 24 hours, the results of the mueller investigation, the special counsel found no collusion between president trump and russia eamon javers has the latest for us as well as what this could mean for the trump agenda. >> good morning. there is a real feeling of triumph and vindication here at the white house on the part of staffers here this morning kellyanne conway and sarah

sanders out making the rounds of the talk shows this morning claiming total vindication for the president, criticizing in very harsh term democrats, the media and parts of law enforcement. here is what the president had to say on his arrival last night, coming back from florida, back to the white house, here's the president's reaction >> there was no collusion with russia there was no obstruction and none whatsoever. and it was a complete and total exoneration. it is a shame that our country had to go through this to be honest, it is a shame that your president had to go through this for -- before i even got elected it began and it began illegally and hopefully somebody is going to look at the other side >> with the public has seen so far is not the mueller report itself, but a letter from the attorney general william barr

offering his summary of the principle conclusions of the mueller report here's what william barr said in that letter that went to capitol hill late yesterday. he said, on this issue of russian collusion, did anybody in the trump campaign work with any russians he says mueller did not establish collusion. on the issue of obstruction of justice, he said mueller did not come to conclusion on obstruction of justice one way or the other, he laid out evidence for and against, but barr steps in here, legally and in terms of the reasoning and concludes that the obstruction of justice evidence is not sufficient to move forward with charging the president with a crime barrs very he'll release as much of the mueller report as he can but he's constrained by the law and that sets up our next political battle. democrats are calling for all of it to be released publicly the white house is adopting a hands off process on that.

they say that decision is going to be up to the attorney general william barr, guys >> the investigations continue in other places, including right here in new york, don't they >> sure, that's right. southern district of new york will be very active in their questions surrounding the payments to stormy daniels, questions surrounding the president's inauguration, questions surrounding the transition so other elements of this are going to be investigated the folks up on capitol hill, democrats are going to continue to investigate as well but a partisan democratic led investigation of this president will not get as much traction as the results from an independent special counsel's investigation like robert mueller's, who was widely respected on both sides of the aisle so for democrats, their opportunity to prove collusion seems to have come and gone at this point >> great reporting trying to figure out the way that between the southern district, federal, and attorney

general barr if barr calls the southern district chief and says, you know what, we're done with this, you don't have to investigate it any further, is the surround district going to say we're separate from the justice department wi department, we can do whatever we want? >> it is part of the department of justice, often jokingly referred to as the sovereign district of new york because they had such a history of independence there over the years. and they do operate in terms of their own judgment, exercising it and the people who have been the u.s. attorney there have been powerful people it is the department of justice that is in charge there. so i'm not sure whether barr would ever make a call like that or how such a call would be received in new york >> yeah. we're only, what, less than 20 months from an election. >> oh, man i thought today would be the day that's what we talk about. i thought this was, like, okay, that's done, let's see the -- by the way, david, right here, right now, i'm announcing my candidacy, democratic party, running for president.

>> all right that's good to hear. >> why not everybody else is. >> i think you've done better than howard schultz with his announcement. >> i'm making -- >> he's running my mayoral campaign when we return, we'll discuss all things apple including what to expect from the company's event today. especially when it comes to streaming and also what tim cook said about china over the weekend. another look at futures, we get started with trading here 18 minutes from now and we're live from post nine at the nyswh wrerne ene tu

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this is beyond wifi, this is xfi. simple. easy. awesome. xfinity, the future of awesome. apple is set to host an event at its california headquarters in just a few hours from now the company is expected to unveil a new video streaming service that would compete with services such as netflix, amazon, hulu and soon to be a lot more shares of apple are up 20% a bit more actually than 20% so far this year. you were talking about it in the last segment, jim, saying don't be a sucker if i could sort of

paraphrase it. >> the stock has gone up, up and up and what short of a mac flying car to take you to mars, i don't know what they can do. look, david, let's say they make a bundle and happens to have a couple of things that you are paying for and put them all together and apple takes a 30% cut. yeah, that would be great for apple. i think about service revenue streams, it is not going to be anything -- >> we spent a lot of time over the last call it year or even more talking about the growth of services revenue, more and more xo important component of overall revenue. the growth rate of services is decelerating, though it is still very strong. s ahi was as high as 33% there are some who follow things like the traffic acquisition cost that google is paying and anniversaried the highs in those and wonder whether it will continue to decelerate.

>> that's why it has to be a little bit blowaway. the problem is that if the stock were at 180, the stock could go up at 192, i'm saying that the temperature is high here and we have seen this time and time again where apple unveils something and it turns out to be retail money that bid it up. and institutions come in and just flatten. >> the wall street journal on its front page, if people still read the front page of the newspaper, plays this as a huge seminole moment for apple, as a turn in the business. >> that was painful. the service revenue stream has been building, building and building it is an incremental -- it is all incremental. and anybody who tries to say that it is, you know, this is it, it is going to take a step function up, it is going to be wrong. it is not going to do that it can continue to go higher to where it is a larger percentage of the mosaic, particularly with hardware not doing that well but there is most of the analysts are waiting for new numbers out of china that show

things are stronger for hardware they just don't -- they do not follow the service stream like they should. i'm interviewing tony -- >> it is a big number. over $40 billion a year. >> i'm completely on board. >> i know you are. >> i've had the kool-aid i had the hawaiian punch i had the crystal -- those are all bad drinks that kraft heinz makes. that thing is falling apart. >> is it still out for seven days. >> the sell date is 20,048. >> for a minute, what fascinates me and i'm going to -- i continue to focus on certainly reporting perspective is just streaming overall. and what we're entering now is a year in which disney, april 11th, big investor day, talk about it, streaming service, which is by far the most important single entrant not yet in the area. and likely to be a success, though expensive and so many questions. warner still coming. our own company is going to have ad supported, free -- and then

you got apple out there with really a billion dollars versus the 15 billion that netflix potentially will spend on content. but still, sort of this bundling with a lot of different things, licensing content from other companies. to the extent it is available. fascinating to watch the competition as it continues to increase and see what customer and consumer responses are >> there are a lot of newspapers that have been jockeying and a lot of news entities to get into the bundle and in order to do that, apple is taking as much as, i think, 30%. >> i know. journal apparently is going to be part of the bundle they're going to have. the new york times and washington post not going to be part of it both of them, in particular, the new york times, has done a good job building its digital business. >> their business is on fire it is failing and at the same time it is on fire, which is incredible i think it is fire/fail. piece of cheese.

>> all right we'll talk a lot more about apple. up next, we got jim's mad dash we'll count you down to the opening bell for a monday. take a look at futures as we get ready to trade here, ten minutes from now we're back right after this. hey mercedes, how about letting your hair down a little? how about a car for people who don't play golf? hey mercedes! mix it up a little. how about something for a guy who doesn't want a corner office? hey mercedes, i don't even own a tie. do you think i need a mahogany dashboard? hey mercedes, can you make it a little cooler in here?

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here it did briefly, going up, when you look at the long-term i've gotten to know it a bit through my friend larry robins. >> that's a great hold. >> they love the management team. >> mark casper on "mad money" tonight. they made a terrific acquisition. this brammer bio, when these guys -- when they said on their conference call they would open to do deals, this will further them in the immunology, personal gene care we're all so involved in this is a $100 billion company that nobody really talks about danaher buying of the ge business was to compete with them not to compete with -- well, like illumina. i can't tell you how important this acquisition is to further their boost rate, to boost their growth rate. marc casper is a quiet guy, not promotional, he's built a powerhouse equivalent of the picks and shovels for the gold

rush and there isn't a better company when it comes to being disciplined and high growth than these guys i want to talk about it. i had them on a bunch of times >> can we get a longer term here if we can, it is worth looking at not five years >> no -- >> returns they managed to get for their shareholders. >> when they do these sell-offs, there is so much panic, this is a good example of why people shouldn't panic. because if you had bought more rather than said growth is over, you could have really killed it. but most people don't have the stomach to own a company where they don't know marc casper and how he's managed to put together an amazing -- i have a bunch of friends who work for them. it is just a very rigorous outfit, it is so lucky to know people who work at these companies. because when you meet them, pre they make it a bit like a lilly can do, and that's a great business >> yeah. we'll keep an eye on --

>> welcome back. >> thank you >> i missed you. >> i'm here. >> okay. i'm not going anywhere now. >> good. >> won't let me out of this place forever. we have an opening bell coming up keeping an eye on shares of thermofisher not a merger monday. >> avaya -- >> reuters reporting on that over the weekend opening bell, five minutes from now. stay with us

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u.s. bank -- the power of possible. you are watching cnbc's "squawk on the street. we're live from the financial capital of the world we're going to get an opening bell, start trading here for the week in about two minutes. and when carl is typically not here, i like to turn to you at this moment and talk about something we call the key to this market. >> right. >> for those who are -- it goes way back to the days of "squawk box," you were a guest host and mark haines and joe and i would sit in our little area and i would throw the same question to you or mark would. what is it today >> i would say oil, but that's not a stock. oil peaked again

david, there is a fantastic piece out by cowan, and saying the broader imapplication eer ie 737 max crash, 2 billion net of insurance, key risk is if they need to cut production and he doesn't think they'll have to. so he's basically saying, opportunity. >> he is. >> because of that, that's why the stock is up because koy is saying, short-term head winds. >> what if you see more carriers follow the lead of indonesia trying to actually get out of their current contracts to acquire -- you talk so often about the earnings being there for years to come in part because of the incredibly powerful pipeline. but -- >> look, if you see the -- the next thing you have to see, he's saying the reputational risk, but you absolutely have to hope that they don't -- if you're a buyer, that they're not going to cut production that's what they'll look for

this pretty much, i say, insinuates they're not going to cut production that's the key right now did not say tesla, tesla is too narrow. >> talking more about tesla at the opening bell here. look at real time exchange back at headquarters. here at the big board, oasis midstream partners doing the honors at the nasdaq, relevant sports group celebrating the international champions cup, annual summer soccer tournament. called football in the rest of the world, but not here. >> nike on the conference call, nike is, again, headed down, but i thought nike made a case, you remember, they mentioned women 30 times on that conference call nike making a big push of apparel, women's, and a bunch of soccer, football bets. i think the stock is way overdone to the downside people expected a blowout and didn't get a blowout

>> you mentioned kraft heinz >> let's talk about that. >> i don't know there was any new news the stock is down 46% over the last 12 months we sometimes make light of the fact -- well, that's not the right term we make fun of the fact that they are a product portfolio is not necessarily one that is particularly healthy for you though it could help you survive the thermonuclear blast. >> what matters to me is that last week, we saw good numbers from general mills and actual organic growth coming and then, david, we have now put together a couple of good conagra had an excellent quarter. we're triangulate kraft heinz that is overinvested, but versus general mills,general mills bought a lot of stock high and they did an equity offering for blue buffalo but, david, it is really looking like the problem is kraft heinz.

not the problem with the center of the aisle, that's where most of these are campbell's increases in value, people feel, wait a second, if you get good numbers from general mills, maybe there could be a merger there. i don't know. >> campbell has a new management team in place. have a reconfigured board of directors at this point and trying to go on their way in what they're calling a reset year, 2019. >> let's just cordon off kraft heinz as being a problem versus some other companies that seem to have figured out how to do the supermarket. and, you know, david, kraft heinz is the classic case of you cut, cut, cut, cut and think it is not going to hurt you, and yet it crushes you. >> i talked about it, right, the myth that we can now sort of explore in terms of the incredible management acumen not that they aren't talented, they are but that they had the answer overall. the answer really was about doing a deal and doing another deal and doing another deal

you're unable to find that next deal as was the case with unilever when they failed, miserably -- >> that was 92 stock went to 92, down by two-thirds pepsico put together a pass teepasstige of businesses. the new products, i sampled them this weekend, you can't just eat one. they're amazing. i had some sort of kale chip or something. >> really? >> not kidding not kale, but it is -- it is so tasty -- >> it makes you think it is healthy even though it probably isn't. >> i felt like superman. >> you look good. >> thank you these things -- >> you went to the bar and drank -- >> i like our fresh chips. but these, the new red hot doritos, wow wow! >> i love doritos. >> david, doritos, can we stipulate that doritos are amazing? how do you think pepsico got to 120? >> i haven't eaten them in a long time, but they're amazing.

>> they have this sample -- >> cool ranch or the classic, doesn't matter what. >> they know your taste buds they're a huge customer of iff that's because some of these flavors need to be, well, natural, need to be -- >> mouth feel and always wanting the next one and, yeah, it is a science. >> remember, what they're trying to do is imitate your first taste for when you got out of the womb, you like those tastes. >> all right, let's move on to tesla, which we mentioned briefly before the bell. you haven't spoken to elon, nor have i i look forward to the day i'm able to sit down with him, though i doubt that day will ever come. it was a negative story, perhaps a negative story in the new york times, talking about orders coming down. and concerns there >> right. >> that was over the weekend >> then a little -- >> the s.e.c >> yeah. the s.e.c. submitted another letter basically saying, come on, judge, you don't need me more time, let's make your decision the decision obviously all

revolves around preclearance of tweets david, there are two people who are erratic tweeters one of them is the president, exonerated this weekend, some say. >> he was exonerated of collusion. >> right >> not of obstruction of justice, but collusion. >> elon musk, very productive fellow he's an early morning tweeter. last one he tweeted me at 3:30 100% commitment. a thousand percent convivial >> was it not convivial? >> within the confines of, let's take, great global wars, it was convivial. >> okay. >> but i don't think -- i don't think he got preapproval for attacking me but he doesn't have to because i did not dispute the greatness of the cars or the production runs. now, a lot of people, david, are focused on the production run and whether it is this big as he says, i have faith, i think the company is amazing hundreds of thousands of cars, what is ford doing >> they are.

>> ford is making a lot of money. the f-150 is killing it. just killing it. but i do think that elon is making cars, but the -- these shorts, david, they're all over him, they don't understand it. it is -- >> everybody gets on them, talking about the fact that he's never really founded one of these companies, he's a promoter of course he is. it is interesting, i don't know if you saw this, theranos documentary on hbo, we read the book a long time ago but what was interesting is at the beginning of it, they have a bit about thomas edison, and what a promoter he was >> my god -- >> how he would use the press. how he would do all these things and it is somewhat reminiscent of this gentleman you have a convivial twitter war with. >> i once met with someone who said, do you know he's named after the town i said, no, the town is named after him. that was revelatory. i think he should be included because, remember, tesla was

rivalling edison edison was a huge promoter >> the point is, you have to be -- you have to be a -- that's what you are. >> can't just be an operator. >> no. that's why -- right now i'm declaring truce. >> it is all -- >> i'm like -- >> always about sales. that's all that matters. always sales every business, really you get down to it got to be able to sell. >> come on stay focused i'm with you. >> i don't know if you sell enough cars, stock down 3% by the way -- >> here comes the judge. >> tesla is down 23% this year >> well, easy come, easy go. >> this year >> okay. >> not a good first quarter. >> a lot of the people who are protesla, they will defend this company to their deaths. the cold dead hands still on the -- >> without a doubt. >> viacom shares having a strong day. this after they and directv agreed to a new carriage

agreement. details not to be share at this point. but there had been the prospect of a shutdown, or a blackout on direct this is not directv now where they're dropping some networks, not just viacom, but others as well, from some of their different tiers of service but this is the bigger though hemorrhaging subscribers directv. and it is seen as a positive without a doubt. >> quite a bad stock. >> there was concern about this. concern about the viability of the net works and the ability to get carriage like this, comes up all the time, did when we had the charter negotiations, they managed to get through it. here they managed to get through it we don't have the details. rarely do we get all of the details in terms of the economics underlying this, but it is seen as a positive no doubt. >> didn't you feel like del rahim was right? we don't need -- the merged at&t doesn't need viacom. we have all this other program that was the fear for heaven's sake that's why the government was --

listen, they come after all the ancillaries and block them. >> government never approved the case and in the court of appeals either. >> i feel bad for antitrust. they were on to something. >> you think they were >> viacom, i don't watch a lot of their programming, but -- >> they didn't get shut out. this goes against that as part of the deal, they were going to go to -- they had all sorts of arrangements to make sure that there was no bias of any kind directv is losing 400,000 subs a quarter. >> that's a negative you talk to randall stephenson what does he tell you? >> not to worry. cash flow giant. cash flow giant. 26 billion cash flow. >> why are we worrying going to make the playoffs. >> don't worry a lot of cash. >> ceos told me not to worry what i've done is systematically say, okay, i'm not worrying anymore. >> there you go. >> i had an interview last week

with larry murlow, no fighting in the war room, by the way. i think we had -- i had an interview with larry murlow about cbs. he told me not to worry about the combination. the stock is down so much, maybe it was reassuring. people feel the aetna -- are you looking at the price and can't believe it >> yeah. >> i think while you were away they lost 15 points. >> wow. >> the whole health care -- nancy pelosi does not favor single payer, the whole health care onslaught is extraordinary. >> another gentleman told you not to worry, polk maybe remember that company? >> mike, yeah. president polk yeah that was -- that didn't come to fruition >> no. no it didn't. >> martin franklin was of the opinion that it wouldn't come to fruition he used -- >> there was an announcement, i believe, last week, that he's going to be -- >> moving on >> yes he will be moving on. >> that was -- yeah, that didn't

really come together, that combination didn't there was a big move in the semis while you were away. amd and micron. >> yes >> you want to see if that holds. the software companies, it is tullio that is doing -- that powers a lot of the companies that are becoming public they power uber and lyft you go and don't you love it, you go in and it is the car is coming and stuff. >> little cartoon car? >> the cartoon car i love uber. >> used uber a lot last week, a lot, instead of a rental car in l.a. i would have -- i just don't understand the thesis for the rental car companies when you would have -- this is an automatic, you would have rented a car and now i took -- we took 20 ubers and it was more economically feasible because lack of parking fee, would have had to pay at the hotel. >> do you know hotels -- there

are additional parking spots some are making available to scooters because they have way too much room for -- not enough cars for parking. got this from a hotelier told me that. >> have to build on that land. >> the stock is nutty. >> on friday -- >> apple is down >> apple is down a little bit. on friday, biogen got beat up. they did announce a $5 billion share repurchase and that's in addition to the 1.7 billion that remains under prior authorization. so biogen shares up 1.5% >> yeah, i don't want it i want it -- you want it to come to have something serious on alzheimer's, not a buyback it is not kellogg. >> thankfully there are still plenty of -- there is plenty of development being done by other companies, given the population for potential drug were there ever to be one is enormous. >> a drug ceo who will go -- >> fail, fail, fail.

it is very difficult >> now, david, i want apple down ahead of this announcement. >> okay. >> that's good when josh lippen en tlipton co turns out to be pretty exciting. if the stock is down a head, that's a victory for tim cook. tim cook -- >> and you and i will come back to this -- >> auburn, you know, he's rooting for auburn basketball. >> no kidding? so is charles barkley. >> and duke -- there is a lot of people who are duke. >> yeah. >> apple is not west coast when it comes to sports >> by the way, bristol-myers, is out with another transaction fact sheet you don't have enough of them. i have fact sheets piling up to here. >> they killed more trees. they should stop it. sierra club. >> the important, though many people dispute whether it should be, but the important proxy

advisory service iss also glass lewis out with their recommendations fairly soon. on that, the vote is the 12th of april, we'll follow it closely, that on the celgene deal let's get to bob pisani on the floor. he's got more on what's moving this morning bob in. >> good morning, david happy monday, everybody. either side of positive or negative, look at the secretariersecretary sectors. remember what happened last week banks generally had a horrible week industrials not such a great week either. they're modestly on the up side. semis had a great week as jim noted and modestly on the downside a little sector rotation but modest and early in the trading session. the bulls have a real dilemma, they have a real problem right now. and i can explain it to you very simple weak global growth is capping all of the upside. we are very expensive now. if you were assuming 0% earnings growth, you can't just 17 times forward earnings with flat

global growth and no earnings. even with 5% at the highest end earnings growth, we're over 16 times forward earnings you got a problem here the bulls have a couple of hopes to start getting the earnings estimate better. one is a trade deal as we know second is to demonstrate the growth worries out there are overstated we had a little help today, the german sentiment numbers came in better than expected and that was healthy. the german market came off of that, yields moved up a little, we need a lot more of that, that is not convincing enough to really turn around the story so what do you do in the meantime while waiting for the story to change and low growth, low yield world? you buy technology stocks, that's the first thing, if you look at what's going on, you can see all of the tech and faang names in march are on the upside amd, apple, alphabet, amazon, microsoft, going back to buying the growth leader because growth is very, very difficult to come by this is a story we have seen for many years

it very rarely went away, but it is certainly back. what else do you do while waiting for the global economy to turn around well, in a low yield world, you pay up for yield historic highs on real estate investment trusts, we noted historic highs on utilities as well the whole new high list was littered with nothing but reits and utilities and few consumer names like merck in there. but generally that's where people are going, they're going into anything with growth and anything with yield right now. what they're not doing is the bank stocks, we noted what a terrible month it was overall for the bank names, particularly the regional banks, regions. this is so far this month. you can see what a tough time it had -- people had here slight improvement today but remember something, much of the regional loans out there are variable rate loans that we're seeing so those commercial industrial loans that people have out, on their loan book, those are variable rate. the fixed rate loans, loauto

loans, those are on the shorter end, ten year, tied to the ten year that tends to be smaller part of everybody's look overall, 20%, 30% depending what company you're talking with. you see a modest bounce today in those regional banks, but when you have short-term rates, watch the two-year come down like they came down last week. you're going to get a sell-off in the regional banks. right now, in determinate of trade, either side of positive or negative, david, dow down 60 points now back to you. >> okay, bob, thank you. bob pisani on the floor. down with the dow despite boeing being up to the bond pits, rick santelli joins us from the cme group in chicago. >> good morning, david i look up and see 228, 229 and two-year note yield, let's go through it real quickly. you two-year note yields, april 1st, 2018, lowest level since april of '18 as i go through the curve, let's look at the far end, 30-year

bonds. they have taken out their 290 level. now they hover at the lowest levels since january, joining much of the rest of the marize , april, 18, three years, february of 18, five years, january of 18, seven years win, seven year maturities at the lowest yield since december 2017, should they close at current levels. if we look at ten-year and 30-year bonds, january of 2018 let's look at bunds overseas october 1st, 2016, captures the negative zones, they're currently trading at i know the big stories have been coming out about how the inverted curve three months to tens is more of a function of demand for our positive yielding long end instruments, indeed the enti entire curve it doesn't change the dynamic, as yields move down, if the catalyst is lower yields in europe, that goes hand and hand

with the slower growth story it becomes a story then of trying to discern the spread relationship between slower growth there and slower growth here finally, we talk about foreign exchange, the dollar, china, big story with trade, which is yet to potentially manifest itself, look at a july 1st of last year, dollar versus the chinese yuan it is hovering at the lowest levels, and i think that the steadiness of it all would give many optimism that something positive may come out of trade negotiations and finally just stripping it out and looking at the dollar index itself, here is a year to date chart, not at the highs, but trading firm and in very counterintuitive fashion to a fed that is on hold in global growth that is slowing and rates that continue to move lower mar, making the dollar expensive to procure for financing deals outside the u.s. jim, david, back to you. thank you, rick santelli

bond record. all right, as we head to break, a look at this morning's top performing stocks on the s&p, viacom, which jim and i just spoke about, is on top after an agreement to continue to have its networks carried on

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all right. apple is going to have its big announcement a few hours now streaming service, see what else is in there. a lot of questions perhaps some answers and for now investors say, well, i would rather sell than buy at least enough of them, so the stock is down 3.1% up next we've got "stop trading" with jim plants capture co2.

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it's cleaning out and i've got mark casper. >> one of the feud deals this morning. not a merger monday, but that's a great get. >> much better world where did they get that? looks like a mug shot. >> we'll take the photo from tonight's interview. >> they are doing promo photos. >> i never get asked coming up, a closer look at apple as we do countdown to that company's event, its big announcement and the stock down almost 2%. we're back after this. alpha seems more elusive today.

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while anticipating unforeseen risk, has powered our rise to a top ten global asset manager. partner with pgim. the global investment management businesses of prudential financial, inc. ♪ good morning and welcome back toes on the street. i'm sara eisen here with david faber live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. good to have you back. carpal quintanilla has the morning off. let take a look at the markets the gloomy mood continues that we've been lower, higher and then lower this morning rngsz and nothing compared to the sharp declines we saw on friday. dow down 96 points apple under pressure ahead of its event this afternoon still an incredible run-up so

far this year. tech, biggest weight, down half a percent. >> that's where our road map begins with the major averages falling. investors digesting concerns about global growth and, of course, the outcome of the mueller investigation. >> plus, it's show time. apple getting ready to unveil its streaming service. we'll break down what it means for the company and the content wars. >> boeing preparing a brief on the 737 max updates since the ceo of ethiopian airlines expresses confidence in the plane maker. we've got the latest on this developing story. >> we'll begin though with the conclusion of the mueller investigation. our eamon javers outside the white house with the latest, and on any implications, eamon, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, sara. the conclusion is no collusion, at least according to the attorney general that's what's in the mueller report also he says that mueller doesn'tcome down one way or th other on the question of on trucks of justice so the mood here at the white house this morning is frankly triumphant. aides have been making the

rounds of cable talk shows there's a real sense of momentum politically in this white house. a setback for democrats on capitol hill, some of whom had hoped to move forward with impeachment. that seems to be politically deflated right now sarah huckabee sanders was here in the white house driveway a short time ago and was asked by nbc's kristen welker whether or not the president now is going to move on and pardon some of thighs aides who have been caught up and indicted in the course of this investigation here's how that played out >> reporter: does this open the door for pardons for paul manafort. >> no discussion of that taking supplies no discussion of pardoning paul manafort? >> no suggestion on any pardon at this point. >> reporter: the white house now saying no discussion that she's aware of anyway, sarah huckabee sanders, in terms of pardons for some of the president's aides. we'll wait and see if we can hear from the president himself. he's meeting with bebe netanyahu of israel later this morning we might be able to get some questions to him on cameras, and we'll wait for that response as well as any information on when

we might see the actual mueller report itself. attorney general william barr said simply yesterday that he's going to move as quickly as he can to figure out what parts of that report can be released to the public and are not subject to grand jury secrecy rules or contain classified information, so not clear at all when the public will see the actual report itself, but the conclusions have been put out there by the attorney general, guys. >> you know. one question investors have, eamon, does the result now impact the president's agenda. does tim pact the democrats agenda in the house? >> well, i think it does i mean, it does clear a cloud out of the way of this white house. the question is what the legislative agenda with democrats in control of the house of representatives there wasn't a whole lot that these two parties agreed on that was going to be able to move through a democratic house and a republican white house anyway, so the question is does that mean something maybe for infrastructure or some of the other areas where there did seem

to be some bipartisan agreement. it feels very much in washington these days as the well is fairly poisoned in terms of cooperation, and both sides are ready now to move on to the 2020 election cycle >> eamon, thank you. >> you bet. >> for a closer look at the market impact defending, let's bring in brian belski and barry bannister. good morning, gentlemen. brian, it is this a market event at all >> no, i don't think so. i think the market still is very poised here in the last week of the quarter in terms of repositioning. we had a little bit of window dressing last week i think the market is still very, very concerned with respect to what's going to happen with earnings in the first quarter. i think investors have learned that politics are events on a short-term basis but fundamentals drive stocks, and, you know, people are a little bit near term worried about what the bond market is saying. we think those worries are overblown, by the way. >> why >> well, first off, from a

fundamental perspective, david, earnings have gone down too much, and we have a model that we've used for over 20 years at seas fy $2 earnings went down to historic lows in january and february meaning all the lemmings, analysts dropped their numbers at the same time, and now we've seen numbers start to tick up a little bit on a relative and absolute basis compared to the last couple of months we think that the earnings recession is not going to happen and most investors have become way too negative and the reason they have become negative is because they miss the move they miss the move in january especially, and now they are piling on to the negativity. i've never seen in my 30 years in the business, never seen so many people be negative with stock market numbers being within an eyelash of new highs, never seen it, so that tells me that people are not fully invested, tells me that the outflows that we saw in 2017 and 2018 are causing people to underperform in their asset allocation, and we're going to have some bumpy roads no, doubt about it in terms of 2019

trading, but i do believe the political news over the weekend has nothing to do with it. >> that doesn't really answer the question as to why the warning signs that are flashing red in the bond market are not worrisome for investors. >> here's why they are not worrisome, okay. united states of america has the strongest gdp in the world we can go it alone without the rest of the world. we have built strategies in our investment portfolios that have so relied on international investing we already know that china is in trouble. we already know that europe and japan, emerging markets have had issues we think investment in american equities has been way underinvested, and we think money is coming back to the home of stability which will be u.s. stocks. >> brian, curious to get your take on that do you agree -- barry, do you agree with what brian just said? >> no, no, i disagree. there's no way the u.s. will remain an oasis of prosperity in a very troubled world. the fed made a mistake with the december rate hike we've been saying they would cut rates by this summer the middle quarter's earnings

are not going to have a liftoff for this year, and we calculated a 50-basis point real rate using core sep and the real rate is 17 times this year's numbers. the problem is i use an s&p data feed for earnings, and i've got $161 this year the street is at 166 and has been coming down since last summer, so at my numbers the market is fairly valued around 2750, and that's why it's in stasis right now >> well, we're going to have a real debate here i think you just disagreed with everything you said, brian, including the, expectations versus where they are in the market. >> yeah. i think with all due respect, pe ratios are the world's worst predictor of markets earnings are, and -- and the path of what's happening fundamentally we've learned in the last 20 to 25 years that a dividend discount model is a better model of the market and more predictive. we also know that macro regression models have actually started to tick up because economic data in the united states is a little bit better.

with the u.s. using or making 70% of everything that we do here in our country, i think we can go it alone. it's not a pie in the sky lollipops and rainbows we're going to have issues, but i do think that once and if we get this positive china accord, i don't believe that the china accord is priced into stocks because we're still dealing with accessibly reactive portfolio managers that won't do anything until they absolutely positively see it. >> you don't believe it's priced in >> i do not. >> really? >> i have the opportunity of speaking to portfolio managers around the world and market all the time whether hedge funds and portfolio managers and they remain excessively negative. they don't believe anything is going to happen and because we're so afraid to be right we don't want to be wrong we're not positioned accordingly we're positioned short term and not thinking about where the puck is going but thinking where it is right now to use a hockey term. >> brian says we're insulated to concerns in the rest of the world. you clearly disagree do you think though that there is upside in this market if we

do get a trade accord with china? >> on the china trade, the political environment argues for that to be put on the back burner, at least until after the 2020 elections that's not really the biggest issue right now. the biggest issue is the fed and what they do with rates. the market is like a hungry ogre the pause was not enough and then the taper of the quantitative tightening was not enough they had to signal a quick taper. now the markets will demand a rate hike, and it's doing that partly through the yield curve inversion. you see it in the difference between the ten to two and the ten to one-year. they are expecting rate hikes -- rate cuts, pardon me as for the comment about price-to-earnings ratio, pe times earnings is the price so i think it does matter, and then when i look at the end flows to which brian refers, that actually strengthens the dollars which weakens s&p earnings, so i'm not as optimistic. i think that we're in a holding pattern here, and that's because there are a lot of cross-currents that don't argue

for a rapid takeoff in the market beyond what we've already seen since december. >> i mean, we could argue about pes but also on the chin trade deal and what's priced in. there's also a question about whether tariffs will go away even if they do reach a deal and whether that could still be an overhang for global growth and earnings. >> i think it's really difficult to judge exactly with respect to what's going to happen in terms of not only the steel tariffs but the aluminum tariffs it's clearly had a look, steel and aluminum very small and the fed clearly per mr. bannister's comment really drove a lot of volatility in the fourth quarter so that's why we put out a piece last week saying this generation's 1995 is this year fed misstepped in 1994, a huge move at end of '94 into 1995 i'm not saying the fed is going to cup i think that remains to be seen. however, the fed clearly misstepped, and it's already

happened, and we think this generation's 1995 is happening right now. >> so barry doesn't think we're going higher in this 2700 region what's your end target >> 3,000. >> bullish. >> barry, final word to you. >> yeah. the only thing would i say about the mueller investigation is the market is fabulous discounting mechanism. it never really put much stock in that whole story. ten years ago republicans pushed a kennard about weapons of mass destruction in iraq, and it cost them at the ballot box now if the democrats persist on the russian collusion hoax it will cost them i think you'll see a shift to more -- hopefully more bipartisanship, and we've really got to keep an eye on this raising the budget, the debt ceiling for the budget if we don't get that done on a smooth basis, we'll be pack in the kind of soup we were in a 2011 and 2012 when washington kept us on edge about treasuries >> that's something you would probably both agree on

barry bannister and brian belski, thank you. >> thank you. shares of apple are down this morning about 1.6%. this as the company gets ready for a big event at headquarters this afternoon we're expecting, of course, apple to unveil a new video streaming service. both julia boorstin and josh lipton are at the event. we'll start with josh, and what apple services business might mean for investors certainly become an important component of their revenues, hasn't it, josh? >> reporter: that's right, david. so as -- at this event today, we're expecting new services, new video and news products specifically so why does it matter, david, to our audience, traders and investors and business people because as its core iphone franchise has come under pressure apple has highlighted the services business as a reason for optimism is thes jumped 19% to nearly $11 billion in the holiday quarter though some analysts do expect that to decrease this year licensing revenue, remember

what, google pays apple to be the default search engine on its default browser, they think that could slow and app store growth could also moderate. what is the financial impact to the new video streaming streaming service? not much in the near term. goldman's rod hall says by his math it adds about 1% to 2020 eps assuming, he says, they sign up 20 million subscribers, but other tech analysts i talked to say there is a much broader important strategic impact of such new services, and what that means is fans own 1.4 billion of the company's iphones and other hardware so tim cook, he needs to keep offering the fans new products and services to keep them happy, loyal and engaged. we know these are metrix he tracks closely that keeps him on his platform rather than jumping to a rival and if the services are really compelling and if he really offers must-see content, that gives consumers another reason to buy the iphones in the future. >> josh, thank you.

>> let's bring in julia boorstin who has a look, of course, at the streaming service and where it would fit in in what is this growing war, if you want to call it that, between all these content providers, julia >> well, david, that's right we expected to hear a lot today about how apple plans to profit from the premium content it has in the works in terms of video and the premium content in terms of magazines and news that is looking to charge a subscription for as well. now, in terms of the video service, we expect to see on stage today some of the big hollywood stars who have already announced shows with apple, including reece witherspoon, steve carell apple focus on the highest end of premium content spending $1 billion so far on the shows from the likes of steven spielberg and oprah winfrey and others now, in addition to its own premium shows we expect apple to offer subscription to services

such as starz and showtime and hbo and aggregate access to all of these video services. the usual arrangement here is apple would charge a 30% cut of subscriptions for the first year and 15% in subsequent years, but big question here really is not only how the content and the feel of this service will be different from everything else that's out there, how also how the cost will compare especially tone flicks, its service for its most popular option is $13 a month. now in addition to the video service we also expect details on its new subscription service. this is expected to be a premium tier on top of apple news which grew to 90 million active monthly users in three and a half months since its launch "the wall street journal" is reportedly joining the 200 magazines that are part of texture. texture is the magazine news app that apple bought last year including the likes of "vanity fair," rolling stone and another example of how a s&l going

premium and the question is how many of its users it can get to pay for the premium news content. guys, back over to you. >> julia, i know we don't have the answers here, and i know you may not know so hbo, starz, potentially part of this, some of their content, not all of it, right, because given the price point that you're talking about it would betypically below to what you pay for a subscription to either one of those services? >> reporter: what we're expecting is a separate service with original new exclusive content from apple and then also offering access to the likes of show time and starz so instead of subscribing separately like through your roku box to a netflix -- not netflix, but in a situation like hbo or starz, you could pay for it through your apple service and access it all in one place and that's why netflix would not be part of it. do you see what i'm saying

>> right it's all the same way comcast does. >> reporter: you're creating your own bundle and something that we over talked about here is apple wants to be the base of your bundle and where you go to access all of these different services instead of just offering its own thing it seize value and also, you know, gaining that 30% subscription fee from you if you're going to be paying for showtime's app over the course of the year. >> understood. thank you for clarifying julia boorstin and thanks to josh lipton as well and, of course, a lot more from them when this event gets going a few hours from now. when we come back, what the end of the mueller investigation signals for president's agenda pulitzer prize winning columnist jim stewart is with us. plus, the ceo of ethiopian airlines speaking out after that tragic crash just two weeks ago, a little over two weeks ago. what he's saying about boeing and the future of the 737 max jet at his airline "squawk on the street" will be right back dow is down 100 points right now. want more from your entertainment experience?

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that may seem obvious. number one, it's a relief frankly that there wasn't any collusion with russia. i don't care what your feelings are about president trump. did we really want a situation where there were allegations that our president was essentially some kind of russian asset, that we were living in some kind of real life manchurian candidate environment where we would have more years of impeachment proceedings and lawsuits and, you know, clouds over the white house i think it's great that that's all resolved secondly, i think it's really significant that, again, whatever you think about trump per se, the process has worked the fbi did its job. the justice department did its job. the special counsel was appointed. he did his job i think he deserves huge credit for the way he handled this, especially given the attacks he was under. reached a credible conclusion. i haven't heard anyone attacking him as being partisan or biased or not thorough, god know, and i think that's a tremendous credit. >> we've yet to see the actual report it's unclear whether we will in

its entirety though attorney general barr indicated we'll see more of it, but the obstruction charge. >> yes. >> and the decision by the attorney general not to pursue it. >> well, that is still -- there's some big questions about that i think, first of all, the mueller report itself didn't reach any conclusion about that, and the book i'm working on really does explore the dynamics of the relationship between law enforcement and the president, and, you know, bear in mind the president is the chief law enforcement officer in this country, whether you like it or not, and that relationship, there's some very difficult issues there about what would constitute obstruction now that said, for barr to say you can't have obstruction unless there's an underlying crime really makes no sense at all. i mean, throughout history there have been many cases of obstruction where people lied or obstructed, covered up evidence, not because there was a crime but because there was something embarrassing, there was something damaging, there was potential civil liability, you

know, situations, need i mention it, of illicit sexual relationships has been frequently a topic where there's been obstruction of justice and many, many people have been charged with perjury and with obstruction of justice where there was no actual crime. just to take one example martha stewart was convicted of making false statements even though she was not charged with insider trading, the crime underlying, it so i don't think that really holds up for analysis but for the time being barr is the attorney general he's the chief under trump he's the chief law enforcement officer. there won't be any charge from the justice department that to me takes that off the table, at least through 2020, and i don't see any impeachment without action from the justice department. >> john harwood, what do the democrats do next? >> reporter: well, first of all, guys, i agree with jim on both the issue of special counsel mueller deserving praise and secondly that it's a relief for the country that he did not find

evidence of collusion, and i agree with him not only because he used to decide whether my stories went on the front page of "the wall street journal," but what i would say is that democrats now have a choice of whether they act on their belief they are complaining about bill barr having made the judgment that jim just alluded to that there's not an obstruction crime that can be prosecuted i respective of whether you believe the justice department can or cannot prosecute the president, but we all knew that the justice department -- that robert mueller was inclined not to believe that he could indict the president. there's every reason -- every reason to think that bill barr would not do that either, so the same remedy for democrats that existed before this report came out exists for them now, and that is through the impeachment process. it is harder and the very likely absence of any republican support makes it riskier, but if they believe -- if democrats believe that the president

despite the fact that robert mueller couldn't establish collusion for various other reasons, if they believe he should be impeached, they still have that option it's just more dangerous, and so their beliefs are going to be put to the test. >> jim, has there been damage done overall to, a, rule of law and, b, justice department in terms of its place in our government given the repeated attacks from the trump administration >> well, obviously we're going have to wait and see, but i do feel -- we have been in virtually unprecedented situation where the white house has been at war with the two principal law enforcement agencies that the white house oversees, the department of justice and fbi. certainly in my lifetime i can't remember something like this even, i mean in, watergate probably is what came the closest where there was direct white house interference with the justice department, but even then, not the fbi, the fbi has been stood apart, and i've never in my lifetime seen the kind of

attacks leveled there. that is going to make -- the danger is that's going to make the heads of the justice department and the fbi very wary about crossing the white house which is not a healthy state of affairs. they do need to be independent they need to be free of political interference, and the public has have to trust in them and the white house has been hammering at that day in and day out. by the way, that's not going stop now in fact, i think it may only intensify. i'm already hearing the drum beats that we've got to look more into -- by the way, i agree we ought to the get to the bottom of all these things a lot of this should be made public that's what i'm trying to do in my book that the constant drum beat that there was a sinister conspiracy inside the u.s. government, that is being pounded even harder, and until these issues are resolved it's going to sow mistrust r.i don't think it's healthy for law enforcement in this country. >> i mean, finally, john, just to bring it back to some of our focus. investors are fixated on the relationship between president xi and president trump

does this change the calculus at all? does it give the president more leverage in these high stakes negotiations that are actually going on at a high level this week in beijing? >> i don't think so. it was always unlikely that the president was going to be removed from office before the end of his term, although it was a possibility and remains a slimmer possibility now, but i think both leaders want to get a trade deal and will get a trade deal for the reason that each of them is under economic pressure. the chinese economy is weakening. we've seen that. the u.s. economy is slowing down we had the yield curve invert on friday there are mounting fears of potential recession say by 2020. that gives very good reason for these two sides to come together and at least calm the trade tensions even if they don't resolve any of the structural changes that the united states is demanding >> john, thank you johnharwood and, of course, ji stewart, thank you >> sure. the head of ethiopian airlines making some comments on

boeing as teams from the three u.s. airlines that own those 737 max jets traveled to boeing's factory to review a software upgrade over the weekend phil lebeau has the latest good morning, phil. >> reporter: good morning, sara. let's start first with the comments from ethiopian airlines ceo who gave an interview today, sort of an update of where the airline stands as it looks into this crash he says it's very difficult for boeing to restore faith in the 737 max. the mcas, which is software system basically working in the background and pushing the nose of the plane down in certain situations, he said it was likely that it was activated in the crash of the 737 max flight. we should point out, however, there's no official determination in terms of what happened with this crash, two, two and a half weeks ago meanwhile as boeing looks to a solution for the 737 max, here's where things stand pilots from the three u.s. airlines that fly the plane. they were in washington over the weekend reviewing the soft wear update either today or tomorrow the faa will begin its review of the

software update that could ultimately lead to certification and the planes getting back on air. on wednesday 200 pilots and regulators will be believe in renton regarding the software solution boeing calls these down days as buffer days, days built into the schedule they will take all three and boeing has not changed its production schedule of 52 per money. take a look at shares of american airlines. american airlines out today saying it cannot put an estimates in terms of how much this grounding will cost airline. they are still trying to put that together. by the way, american doesn't expect this to end any time soon, guys they do not have the 737 max on the schedule at least until april 24th so that's some indication that those who fly the plane, well, they are hoping for the grounding to be lifted they are not expecting it any time soon. guys, back for you. >> phil, thank you. as we head to a quick break, getting a check on where the

major averages stand at this hour boeing is helping the dow but overall it's lower united health and apple are the biggest drags offset by boeing, caterpillar and home depot we'll be right back.

welcome back, everyone i'm sue herera here's what's happening at this hour as russian president putin went about business as usual, russian officials reacted to the mueller report spokesman dmitry peskov says russia has never interfered in elections in other countries and does not intend to interfere a political analyst says the relationship between trump and putin is unlikely to change. british prime minister theresa may meeting with her cabinet to map out a strategy for delivering brexit as she fights to stay in power. the session came after a weekend of speculation that she might be forced to resign to win approval of her twice rejected deal. flash floods in southern iran have killed at least 11 people and injured 15more. the government warning residents about the heavy rains in various areas across iran. at least 30 people were killed last year by the floods.

and pope francis traveling to the hilltop town loreto they tried to catch a glimpse of the pope as he gave mass at the town's cathedral now back to you. >> the dow is cutting its losses in half, now down 4/545. time for our etf spotlight mike santoli on the floor taking a look at yield curve and its impact on financial and real estate sectors, mike. >> yes, a starkly different situation here when you look at real estate versus particularly commercial banks, regional banks. rkes, regional banks and the krq, basically a mirror image. the low flat curve hurt regional banks but they genuinely benefit reits. real estate used to be in

financials three years ago they split off and here very really diverging fortunes the big questions of course, has this gone too far and is it too overstretched? have yields become too compressed and will they come back if so the two lines will go back together both pausing today one quick note, too, the read index is not all office buildings and malls. biggest group by far is wireless towers and digital server farms and things like that, so obviously it's not just about all rent-seeking companies >> i always like to know. >> i know. >> good for you. >> thank you i always like to know. >> that's the thing. you don't really know, but mike santoli tells you. >> thank good for the etf spotlight. >> when we come back high level trade talks picking back up this week in beijing is a deal tonhe horizon we'll give you the detrails next

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high-level trade talks between china and the u.s. are picking back up again this week in beijing our kayla tausche in washington with the latest. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, sara. president trump might just be boldened by the mueller report and his attorney general clearing him of obstruction of justice and other federal investigations still loom, and the timeline for those decisions is still unclear the timeline is more clear the u.s. hopes for a deal in principle within the next two weeks. the top u.s. trade official is headed to beijing for a one-day negotiation overnight on thursday and then china's vice premier will return to washington on april 3rd. there will be hopefully be an mar-a-lago summit later in the month. there's the question of can the substance of a deal and its enforcened be agreed upon and will the emboldened president trump push for an even harder deal number two, is the u.s. willing to remove all tariffs to get

beijing on board chinese officials is that what they want and they are willing to remove some pre-existing tariffs as a sign of good faith. how much more urgency does a global slowdown create in this situation and number four how will cyber security be treated in a potential deal in the mueller report lays bare that russia wanted to interfere with the election and tried and china could join that effort in 2020. >> any more clarity on whether tariffs stay or go when something gets done? >> still unclear the u.s. side is holding its cards very close to the vest here ambassador lighthizer, the top u.s. trade official says that's what china wants there has been some signaling that perhaps that tranche of tariffs on $200 billion in chinese imports, the 10% level oftariffs, could go if that $5 billion tranche stays in place and that stays in place where the room where it happens and

that's behind closed doors. >> stocks are lower on some of the global growth and slowdown fears. how this could shape the fed narrative and the trade talks, the economy. let's bring in the head of asia's deutsche bank strategist and mark zandi you always have a good sense of how the politics feed through to the politics and economics do you think the mueller conclusion will have any impact on any economic policy from the trump administration for the rest of his term >> no, i don't think so. i mean, washington was dysfunctional before the mueller report it's going to be dysfunctional after the mueller report i don't see any substantive economic policy getting done between now and the end of president trump's term, so i think investors know that and that's why they are not reacting to the news today, so i -- i don't think anything has substantively changed here. >> samir, what about the

expectations of a trade sgheel where >> the risk culture creato much noise about how we're getting to that point that indeed if we don't see some of that rollback it would be a lot more damaging for market sentment >> what is your view of the state of the chinese economy right now? mean, when we say it is weakening, how weak is it? >> a large downside is coming from exports facing a cliff here. part half we're facing has been front loading a lot of the orders because of the new status coming and now there's an expectation that they are going to suspension and hopefully a reversal fanned that doesn't happen i think you could see more i would also argue that this is about policy policy will wrest it downside if that's to come through and the policy is not able to or willing

to actually go in with as much stimulus as people expect. that's where the real sharp downside comes from. >> broader that be china, mark, is the global slowdown getting worse or getting better? we all thought it was stabilizing and then got that 44 on german pmi and there was another freakout about global growth, and you certainly saw that in the bond market. so which way is it going >> you know, sara, feels a lot softer than i had expected or thought. the slowdown has been more pronounced than i thought a few months ago i expected some slowing because the u.s. had all this stimulus, financial tax cuts that juiced things up last year and that went away so we would see some slowing no matter what, but this is much more pronounced and it's not bouncing back, you know. we run a survey -- sentiment survey, global survey off one of our websites, and that fell sharply beginning last fall into this year and then i thought, well, you know, the stock market has improved the government shutdown is over. china is implementing fiscal

policies to restimulate their economy and we would see the sentiment index bounce back. it has not, and it's very consistent with a global economy that is very close to stalling out, so at least through the end of march i don't see a sign yet that the global economy has bottomed out it's making me more nervous. i fully anticipate the global economy coming back to life. the chinese are fully engaged and want to get their economy going again, and, you know, i do think we're seeing the fed pivot and all those kinds of things but i'm growing more nervous here about what's going on >> the movement of the currencies is also very important here. >> absolutely. >> what is your sense in terms of the dollar and the a & d? >> well, i guess, look the near term is also very dependant on what is the shape and form deal that we get there's clearly more narrative towns that any sort of an arrangement will include the currency and especially the dollar being kept into a bit of a -- bit of a ranges, and if that happens i think the most

critical part is that that would mean the currency can no longer be used as a policy stimulus tool which means you've got to do a lot more on the other sides which is either higher interest rates or a much more active fiscal policy. >> the great yield curve debate going on right now so it's a pretty reliable recession indicator but that could be, you know, in 18 months it could be less than that and could be in five years i mean, how do we actually interpret the signals from the bond market? >> you know, whether we're signaling recession and whether the yield curve is strongly signaling is the economy's growth rates is going to be much, much slower over the next year or two than clearly it has been over the past year or two so whether we get a recession or not, you know, i'm not sure. i mean, there's a lot of things that are affecting the yield curve that haven't been here historically like global kwooezing, butkwooe kwooezing, but the message in

the yield curve is it's going to be a bit of a slog. >> sameer and mark, thank you very much. >> thermo fisher to buy brammer. jim kreamer will speak with ceo marc casper exclusively on "d money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern. as for us, well, we're coming right back tech sector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens to identify long-term winners. from energy... to real estate... to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in that pursuit. pgim: the global investment management businesses of prudential.

is the flood of tech ipos hitting the market in the next few months a sign of a market top? find out on tradingnation.cnbc.com more "squawk on the street" coming up.

dow down 48. let's go over to the cme exchange with rick santelli with the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> reporter: good morning, sara. all this talk about inverted yield curves and whether the distortions of quantitative global easing have made a difference we go to our source

joining us is former economist of the australian fed, one of larry kudlow's favorite analysts and kind of the father of this line of thinking arturo, let's get right into it. today we have an inverted three-month to ten year even though tens to twos have steepened a little bit t.certainly looks like the dynamic to may attention to is more t-mobiles to two and three-year notes how much credit do you put in this signal understanding that inflation has been sticky and quantitative easing has distorted some of the issues on the yield curve. >> right i think it's definitely time to be concerned about this, although as you mention there had there's a lot of factors that need to be taken into consideration. i would say that one of the things to look at is whether this persists or not, and the research we've done we use not a one-day rate or a one-day spread but a spread -- an average spread over a month or a quarter to predict recessions, and that

average is the one that's a predicted recessions accurately in the past so the fact that it turns negative one or two days is not by itself a signal of a recession even though as i said it's a signal to be concerned about it. concerned about it >> now, if we move under the notion that whether this is an accurate signal or not, it's going to be a signal that investors will take to heart at a time the business cycle has certainly stretched out the runway a bit, if you were an investor watching this yield curve debating as to what the positive or negative impact in the near term would be on the equity markets, what would you say to the investor? >> the equity markets, i looked at this in the past and the equity market seemed to react after the bond markets bond markets seemed to be the early signal for the stock market, judging by past experience, doesn't necessarily mean something negative right now, although if

the signal persists and we eventually get a recession, we would expect the stock market to react to that at some point, maybe six months later >> when you were working many years ago on trying to develop the predictive powers off studying them of the yield curve, what notions did you have about inflation because that's really the special sauce here. you have a business cycle, fed inflation growth become addressed, the fed raises its rates, investors demand more or less based on inflation rates. is the issue of global inflation being so tricky the last ten years also a distortion? your final thought. >> yes inflation is very important. no doubt about it. it builds into the expectations that go into the interest rates. one thing to bear in mind is that inflation is very much related to real activity so the biggest declines

inflation happen when we have recessions basically, so the fact that the rate may be lower because of inflation, that could be a recessionary signal in and of itself. >> arturo, thank you very much as this continues to develop, we'll monitor the curve, and hopefully have you back for more explanations on what play lie ahead. thank you. >> thank you time to send it to jon fortt with a look at what's coming up on "squawk alley." >> david, we're looking forward to the big apple announcement coming in a couple of hours, tomorrow rogeto rogers is with us. former ceo of tivo, he knows the cable business and digital gaming what does apple need to do to score with this announcement qufi o cinupn o "sawk alley. does your wealth manager measure up? a cfa charterholder does. they have the investment expertise to unlock opportunities

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i am dominic chu the s&p was down 15 at the lows, off the worst levels of the day, slightly positive. one of the notable outperformers, the industrial sector in the s&p, marginally higher on the day, fractionally

at this point. you have nor folk southern and others boeing is up fractionally on the day, looking to snap a two day losing street with the broader markets. boeing stock is 19% below a record high of march 1t. keep an eye on boeing. i will send it back downtown to you, david, at the stock exchange >> thank you very much, dom chu. now time to turn to sara who will be here the next hour of "squawk alley" but also of course for the most important two hours at the end of the day. what's coming up >> i missed your excitement around this question every day while you were out apple is going to unveil its streaming service. we'll bring instant reaction and analysis one last thing perhaps, goes to 3:00 p.m. eastern time or so and apple share price reaction, a little under pressure after a strong run up. >> coming off the lows of the session, down 72 cents

it will be interesting to hear if there's anything we're not aware of in terms of reporting that's been done on what they'll introduce, what price points will be. of course, this crowded streaming area that's only going to get more so when disney comes with its product and time warner with its, universal, so many different things for consumers to choose from but services are really important part of the revenue stream >> 15% and growing about 40% or so 1.4 billion active users gives apple an edge for sure we'll hear more about that i want to see who is there from hollywood. "squawk alley" is next we're all over the apple story don't go away. obvious.

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good morning, it is 8:00 a.m. at apple headquarters in cupertino, 11:00 a.m. here on wall street. "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪