forth, nike closed the day higher after that sharp drop on the avenatti tweet before he was taken into custody. what a weird story. >> that does it for today. thanks for watching. >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square i'm scott wapner in for melissa lee. tim seymour, steve grasso, dan nathan and guy adami ahead on "fast," financials under fire the group sinking deeper into correction as the ten-year yield hits its lowest level since 2017 and the top technician says there's more pain coming and what to buy instead. the dow on track for its first down month of the year more volatility, guy says this stock right here could be about to break out but we start where else, apple. hosting a star-studded event

with a new streaming service, gaming services and credit card. josh lipton has more from cupertino. >> the star of the show had to be that new video streaming service. it's called apple tv plus. >> we partnered with the most thoughtful accomplished and award-winning group of creative visionaries who have ever come together in one place to create a new service unlike anything that's been done before. [ applause ] apple tv plus. >> so this new service, scott, will feature original show, movies and documentaries from hollywood superstars who were here today talking about their new shows, so you saw steven spielberg, reese witherspoon, jennifer an 'tis ston a-- anistd

oprah. what is the price going to be of this service we'll have to wait tore that additionally apple debuted an all new apple tv app where they can scribe to hbo, showtime and starz and news plus, a new subscription service bringing over 300 magazines and leading newspapers for 9.99, an apple card which is a new card built into the apple on the iphone as well as a physical credit card designed to work where apple pay is not accepted and finally apple did tease a new service for gamers as well it's going to be apple car cade. a subscription service that will feature over 100 new and exclusive games that also launching in the fall. apple, of course, does both a huge install base, 1.4 billion apple devices out there so how many fans can now apple convince to buy in to these new services unveiled today scott, back to you

> thanks so much apple shares closing down more than 1%. still up around 20% this year, so will the company's transformation to services pay off for investors? that's the key question. that's what it is about. >> it is the stock is up 33% from january 2nd when the company preannounced pretty disappointing fiscal quarter a lot had to do with hardware and weakness in china. if you can overlook all that and look at the announcements they made today while there wasn't a whole heck of a lot of detail, pricing, that sort of thing, when the products are going to be released can you think about that install base and the fact that the average iphone user spends $44 on -- you know, annually on their -- through their device in this ecosystem and that's a whole host of services that they'll be able to expand that ecosystem. it's not a reason to buy at 188 bucks up 33% from those 52-week lows but something that should give you solace about the future of the company as they try to figure out how to offset unit

declines and what will ultimately declining margins in the hardware business. >> timmy, dan said it. not enough to buy the stock. is that right? >> at 14 1/2 x times cash puts you around 220, 225. i own the stock. i think it's worth owning independent of today's announcement i think i agree with dan. >> do you buy it fresh here? >> yeah, i can put fresh capital work here. >> nothing blue you out of the water. the sell-off is absurd if that's why it sold off, it failed at 200. >> moving down into the event anyway. >> that's the -- >> i mean today, i mean. >> the go to action. you sell it basically on the event and check the box and did enough to make it interesting. but it's not killing netflix price action shows that. it's helping roku. price action shows that. i think they did enough with leaving -- >> sorry what do you mean >> price action in roku.

benefits them, tailwind. price action in netflix, not a netflix killer but apple is not a -- >> it will be included so apple will be included on roku's platform. >> guy, what do you think, credit card, the tv, the credit card -- >> welcome it's great to have you here. >> you're always welcoming >> welcome back. let's get those pleasantries out of the way. >> it's nice. >> listen -- >> back to the matter at hand. >> it was a pretty interesting announcement getting away from the hardware side and think it's interesting. credit card, people will say, not a big deal for a lot of millennials it might be they're working on that install base without question. in terms of the stock, though, all-time high 232 or so in september. traded down to 1 -- what was it 142-ish on december 24th if you look at the 50% retracement puts you exactly where it's trading right now i happen to watch the "squawk

box" with joe kernen he interviewed jim cramer. not that i'm trying to curry favor with jim, jim was dismayed it was higher in the premarket saying it was perfect to sell off. he was right i think it backs offer not to spas aspersions at apple. i justy it's run too far to fast >> i thought that was an interesting thing. service growth in the quarter was in the teens, you know, it's decelerated off of what was a very small base. higher growth rates and 50% -- now that it's become a $20 billion annual business and growing, it's much less so to me i think that pointing to services growth is not the whole thing, you have to point to the higher margins but you had a great discussion, the halftime report on at noon every day. >> professional. >> but tony said he expects units to be down 15% year over year this is the third consecutive

year >> that's really -- >> you'll need greater growth and really fat margins they're splitting -- >> is it enough? >> it at least gives you the conversation -- it at least gives you the conversation and gets your mind off the hardware business that is sluggish and slowing and think about the $40 billion number >> they spent two hours speaking to the entire world about this huge new opportunity wouldn't you like wall street analysts to come out and say this is going to be an x amount of opportunity >> yeah. >> we'll -- >> they're not doing that. >> if you think of first of all the credit card business, i actually think that is something that ultimately could move the needle the services business, sorry, the apple plus, the tv plus and whatever is in that bundle and realize they have a few high-profile content creator on their platform right now, look, it's going to take time. there was nothing they could have told thaws would have changed the story. this is about a company allocating resources toward high margin businesses and at this point and valuation why

shouldn't we believe app "journal" they've delivered on everything they went to do with an incredibly loyal customer base who -- those guys probably want -- >> for years apple tv was released eight years ago or something and steve jobs called it a hobby it's always been categorized that way roku had a big day >> everything had a big day -- >> it's a very confusing. >> doesn't have to be, does it >> this is the first offering this company has ever put out in the software universe that you can get without their hardware there's some things on android now. itunes on the android device that is a massive shift for the company over the 40-year -- >> they have to. >> i know so the question is, there's so little detail bit who knows. this may not be -- the video streaming business may not -- >> it wasn't enough -- i'll speak -- it wasn't enough for me to say i'm on board. first of all we don't know pricing or what the offering will be. i don't think there's enough there but i do own the stock i own it from lower and if i own

it, it is, in effect, buying it today. putting new money to work because you're still staying long so i think they did enough to preoccupy people until we get all the details. >> does it get you excited about what they're doing from the services standpoint to, again, grow that business to enough scale to offset any slowdown in phones >> look. >> and hardware. >> dan talked about how it's a small base so the early growth numbers of the delta was more impressive a year and a half ago but it's still an absolute in terms of aggregate terms massive. i am excited about the loyalty and about the difference ways they're monetizing people are committed to apple and they're stuck if they're on tv and i can pick up a knicks game, $2.99 won't mean a lot a lot behave that way with apple. >> they're not saying it, they're focusing on services and it's because they see the deceleration in hardware

they're not going to say that but their laser focus -- >> their actions speak louder than words. >> jinks. >> the question, is the service's business, are revenues slowing to the point where tight goi -- it's going to be a hindrance? you can't have service revenue slowing at the same time that handset sales are slowing? >> in order to get the valuation they want the people along the stock watch services revenue has to be around 20% to 22%. what, are we about 15%, 16%? and that is getting slower towards the upside >> one point, it's really important. you don't teed to have hyper growth can you have midteens growth on a business that's, you know, that has much higher margins than the hardware business great for the overall pie. this doesn't need to be a hyper growth story but taking some of the total addressable market that exists and growing it on your user base that may not be using of services of other

providers. >> the negative way to spin it from a person long how much is this goss their eye off the ball about trying to stem or stop the slide in hardware sales? they're putting an awful lot of time into services maybe they just can't handle the slide -- there's nothing to do about the hardware side which then becomes an overwhelming -- >> you have to target your installed base, 1.4 billion devices in the universe out there. >> i know. i'm the install base too and i wasn't overwhelmed by this this is not going to be something that -- at least alt this point. >> timmy will play 3 bucks for a knick game >> they're worth a buck. >> i will pay 3 but that's what people do on their iphones and they have a captive audience 1.4 installed base the ultimate is probably 20 times as opposed to about 11 times on the hardware and something people forget on a $4e billion -- if. >> you mentioned jamie dimon

didn't li - cramer didn't like the stock up. it has run -- >> this stock usually run has an event an sells offer sa sakinocci said on the show -- >> the marketplace told you the valuation and weren't impressed and sold the stock off and all re riverals were bought. >> up 10% in a month. >> it lagged the market too, scott. there's some part that sentiment got so poor and people were looking at valuations and apple underperformed >> more, cupertino, gene, you were in the event, i believe, today. what's your takeaway tonight >> scott, really two takeaways, first, the financial impact. if you put these four services together and think about what it could add in the next five years i think about a billion or 20 billion or so in revenue, that

probably equates to about 10% in "sn annual services growth that's the financial impact. then i think there's a higher level order that apple is shooting for that gets lost in these announcements. they've been largely anticipated and whether or not the consumers want this remains to be seen but effectively what apple is saying, they'll take things we interact with every day whether a screaming servic-- streaming e or credit card and it's enriching people's lives and i recognize when i use that language it makes me feel like i'm just repeating what their message but i think it is an important distinction trying to create content not about the typical content we've seen, this enriched content, gaming more healthy gaming and first time a credit card can actually add transparency and that gets lost in the conversation today.

these subtle little approaches that apple does to make our lives just a little bit better and i think that ultimately will yield a higher share price i'm encouraged by the announcement. >> it takes the services business to the next level, so to speak >> yeah, definitely on the video side, on the credit card what they're doing is something that i think other credit card companies must be scrambling to try to add that layer of transparency really shifting the focus from making money as an issuer to try to -- apple is not going to make a ton of money off the credit card i want to be clear about that. this in five years can be call it a billion and a half dollar business, much smaller than the $15 billion but the interesting part just to go one more level deeper on the credit card, the exciting part, if you look at the other announcements there are variations to a better degree than we've seen before but the credit card, that actually was a malaysmeasurable

i think that is a good example of what an advantage that apple has of tying together the hardware, software and services. >> gene, when you look at the investment they're putting in and trying to become a competitor of netflix, were you underwhelmed by the amount of investments, should that be 10x or the fact to your point it's four services so they're trying to focus on all of them and not just one of them and then more of an aggregator versus a direct competitor to so many services they're offering >> i think they wanted to try to bundle all these service announcements together a logical time of the year to do that when you do that, you have to preannounce things and don't have a lot of detail so let's talk about the video real quickly. it's unclear how many shows and movies they have most likely probably around 40 which is a far cry from netflix at a thousand original series. but i think the quality of this is what is going to ultimately

stand out and i suspect the way apple will measure their success is the number of industry awards i don't know enough about entertainment and the awards they'll gun for but at the end of the day this content, this different approach is going to have an impact and think that could be a similar size business as netflix calls it, $15 billion a year i am in the camp it will have a negative impact over the next year. >> how do you judge the stock today given the fact it had such a big run into the announcements? >> i think it's a great example of how these apple events set up we generally know what's happening going into it but the significance of what's announced really doesn't become more clear to us until quarters and years ahead and i think i judge the significance as apple is making a statement and going after services but they're also taking a different approach to service. that different approach is enriching lives and more healthy game content so i view this as a positive in

line with apple's brand and mentioned security if you're interested and playing buzzword bingo seven times they are heavy on that theme as well which i think is something unique apple can add to these service. >> this must take a deal for a content company off the table. >> what would -- what would it take to -- i missed that. >> i'm saying these kind of announcements would take a deal for any kind of content company by apple off the table >> i think largely you're right because i think what it shows they want to do something different. >> do it themselves. >> i don't think they'll acquire net flishgs. cbs, they'll acquire some type of content they would have to kill a lot of the content so i think it largely does take that off the table. >> gene, thanks. good to talk to you as always. guy. >> begin, gene, he nails it. 50% retracement off the all-time

high the 50 day moving average coming in around 175. i think it's reasonable to think before earnings on april 30th apple retests that 175 level. >> i think they miss the market as far as video content. that's not why people have knelt application and netflix and chill. netflix's original content is less than 8% of their viewable hours. apple is so far away oprah tv on apple tv won't be the reason why the ecosystem uses their service so this is going to be a dud for a bid. bank stocks getting crushed. now a top technician says could get a lot worse for one key group. he'll be here to tell you which one. plus, tesla is sinking after rbc slashes its price target on the electric carmaker. the stock just did something that could signal a u-turn ahead and later guy is stepping up to the plate with one stock he says is going to be a home run for

investors. we'll find out if that name has him at a fever pitch we're live in new york city's times square and much more "fast money" right after this.

welcome back to "fast money. tesla hitting another speed bump after rbc had a bearish note out. >> let's talk about this note and some of the concerns about tesla as it prepares to report q1 deliveries will happen next week rbc's note cut the piece target down to 210 from 245 they also cut their estimate in terms of q1 and they cut their estimate in terms of deliveries down by 10%. look, everybody has been talking about this for some time, tesla has a number of issues with regard to q1 deliveries. you had issues in terms of shipments to china, whether or not europe would be spooling up as quickly as possible so the tough first quarter for tesla includes those issues with regard to china deliveries, there's the s.e.c. contempt complaint. that case keeps dragging on and there's no indication when that is going to end.

and then the model y unveil last week, that was considered lackluster by most of the people who had a chance to take it in when you look at shares of tesla the first quarter deliveries are expected next week and most people have dialed back their expectations, scott. the question is, has the bloom come off the rose in terms of their shares for investors i know we talk about the 260 level holding. the question is does it hold here this stock, when it's gotten down here it has moved higher. does that happen with shares today? >> yeah, that is the question, phil, thanks so much phil lebeau in chicago >> let's start off with saying it it doesn't hold you have sort of a gap in the chart down to 180. so, you know, maybe 240. but if it does hold look at all the negatives you have s.e.c. as a negative and deliveries a negative. musk as a negligent. i don't believe it'll hold this time but it has shown extreme resilience.

>> why will this time be different? >> you could have said however long ago you could have down a list of negatives. >> you could have. >> that's why the chart is so volume tiff but you either support a resistance or support level the more it bangs offer it or weaken it at a certain point it will be weakened in my opinion. >> a whole list of why this time is different first of all i think the balance sheet is different they really don't have a real announcement behind them so i think the s.e.c. could possibly be a pop for the stock if you get some kind of a 7 -- deliveries which don't matter because they aren't a sign of demand to me i think it's interesting that the street is now saying it is a car company so let's judge it on demand and deliveries for a long time it wasn't a car company. we were buying technology. we were buying pie in the sky so i absolutely think that this is a dynamic -- first quarter will show there isn't even a demand for the model 3 that everybody

has made an assumption. >> a short here. >> i'm shore the stock >> you are short the stock >> tim has been right. in a vacuum let's just broaden it out. >> thank you so much >> i know at 5:00 you are not watching and preparing for other things i wanted to let you know what's going on on cnbc's "fast money" each night for the last few months getting back to tesla the stock, an interesting level where we bottomed out this time last year. that's where we basically traded down to in october and that's where we seem to be headed now so you could say there are no triple bottoms, probably true but to tim's point it probably is headed down towards that 245. >> three people think it's going below 260 then it won't recover. >> this is to the going to be off -- i think there is a lot of bad news in the stock. deliveries that come out next week -- and you can easily get a pop off the support level. i'm not making a bullish call. i think all of these negatives

that these guys have mentioned i think are serious negatives and the bigger issue we're seeing a demand issue right here, i think, and the further this global economy continues to get weakened, you know, this is going to be a huge problem for the company. talk about that balance sheet. >> never been a demand issue but a supply -- >> i think there's no shortage of issues but near term i would be hesitant to press the stock at 260, 250. >> i also say, i mean my bigger picture view and guy would probably agree this stock doesn't have the same following, doesn't exist in the same way. this valuation doesn't happen without the fed, without free money, without people throwing money at things because capital is free. that's my snarky response too. i think there is a lot of companies out there that get the benefit of the doubt because investors basically don't have the same cost of capital. >> all right for more on tesla head to tradingnation.cnbc.com here's what else is coming up on "fast. >> there is no place like home

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and say hello to the new way... at carvana. welcome back to f.a.s.t. fashionist "fast money. growth fears way on investors. the financials the worst performing sector down nearly 5% falling deeper into correction territory. so is there more pain ahead for the group? what do you think? >> i suspect so, the way they

fell awart jpmorgan, we hear best of breed. look at that chart it dropped 10% in a straight line over the last week. trading at two-month lows. up 1.5%. same thing with bankamerica filled in that entire earnings gap when people were feeling a little bit turned around and thought that the banks could be one of those groups that could lead us out trading at really important support and just lastly, morgan stanley, talk about the tech ipos. this thing can't get out of its own way, rejected at 45. bank earnings the earliest ones we get in april. i wouldn't be optimistic. >> and you're not wrong. but you act like banks are going out of business every time you talk about the banks. >> did i sound hysterical? >> you sound very calm, cool and collected and it was a very cogent thoughtful piece.

>> i wasn't shaking. >> he wasn't i back off i feel like we talk about the banks like they're going out of business when they're not and if i look at citi bank since the december 24th sellout, outperformed the s&p and a handful have outperformed. >> which makes you think they have more to the downside. >> maybe. >> when you look at inverted yield curve -- >> they're not trading like death. >> but good businesses don't necessarily mean -- >> inverted and lack of growth >> what curve are you looking at >> the one the banks look at three-month, ten-year the one -- >> now we're talking about that. what do you think caused the sell-off >> hang on a second. the three-month, ten-year, what caused the sell-off. >> that's the one -- >> the way -- >> did you hear about the three-month ten-year --

>> what is the yield curve >> if we're talking about the short end of the yield curve which is the two-year note where people price in the expectations which has fallen 50 basis points faster than the ten-year has fallen 50 basis points, the yield curve is steeper >> no, first of all, the basis points for the whole year. they both moved down and had the -- >> the short end rallied more than the long end. >> what does that short end tell you about potential for growth it's not bullish >> of course, it is. i agree with that. >> the fed maybe cut -- it's being priced in, yes >> now i'm hysterical. >> go ahead, guy >> it's entertaining show. it's more entertaining when you watch and are a participant and a viewer >> i look at the banks this way. in this environment what is the

level to buy them at and i would say when citibank gets around 85% of tangible book which for citi is 63, gets about 54 that's where you buy it if you look over the last two years if it gets down to trough valuations, a screaming buy, that's where i think it's going. >> our next guest says despite the fallout in financials there is still one name in the space that's worth a buy let's go off the charts with oppenheimer over at the plasma with ari wald. >> before getting into the effect, let's try to identify the cause and for us what we see is going on, more about what's going on overseas than what is going on in the u.s. here's the chart of the ten-year u.s. treasury yield and german bund yield inflation and they're still positive so not fears of disinflation but this german bund yield is into negative territory dragging the u.s. rate

lower and have the u.s. rate below 2.5% these two lines are retracement levels of 38.2 and 58 and now below that there's risk to 2.3%. that's what's going on if you're worried about these lower rates, first thing you want to do is sell what's causing it that's your european shares. i think that's where the greater downside risk is now, let's talk about the implications in the u.s. now, i think as the long end of the curve continues to fall, you're going to have continued flattening in the yield curve, speaking in terms of the 210 the 210 hasn't interverted yet but continues to flatten and that will signal these -- this lower growth world we're in and puts the premium on higher growth stocks. i think you'll have continued outperformance by growth and underperformance by value. that's the blue line you see the very tight correlation between the two ten-year yield curve in orange and growth value relationship --

underperforming when it falls in blue so let's speak in terms of probably the biggest value area. that's financials and the area that's really been hit within financials has been the regional banks. even much more than the large cap money centers. here's the eft kicker kre, inflecking lower from its falling 250-day moving average really never pushed through resistance i think as an equity investor you're rooting for this and want to see it high or low. very weak and versus the s&p 500, that signals to us if the s&p sours, group right here is really got risk to get hammered is where you want to stay away from here's what you want to bet on you want to bet on the growth year stocks, thin tech side. visa, new coming off a new cycle high in this questionable market that's a sign of relative strength here's a stock that held up better during the q4 volatility. it brought the market out. it broke out that breakout level is at about

$150 that's your new support level. that's relative strength i think in general large -- high growth, large cap, quality, names like visa is how -- where you want to be invested. >> good stuff, thank you so much ari wald who else likes them. >> money printing machine. the health of the consumer is good, then you stick with the credit card companies. they perform in the past, up 15% year to date on visa i would think that's probably a pretty safe place in a not so safe environment. >> we forget the regional bank has a bid two months ago from consolidation. sun trust bb&t there is more to do. if people are investing this that space, they expect major consolidation to continue. that should be underpinning the banks. coming up, semis getting smoked after a big run from the lows what is going on with the chip space. guy adami is warming up, pitched one stock he says will mark the

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hopes for a china parade deal are on the rise if a deal does get done, guy adami says there's one name that could see a big boost. at the plasma with the fast pitch. >> thanks for that toss, scott i appreciate it and my pitch for you folks at home, u.s. steel. letter x and you'll say why, why the stock has been grim death for the last year. you'd be correct this was a $37 stock before president trump started talking about china trade tariffs this time last year, seemingly on its way to 45. it got stopped in its place and gone straight down ever since. but the stock is cheap and been cheap for awhile but it's particularly cheap now number two, well, if you read barron's, something i like to do, still prices are rising. it's something that tim has talked about over the last couple of weeks, as well and the last one, i think there is an

asymmetrical rick to the up side if a china trade deal gets done you will see this stock explode to the upside and when i say explode, you can reasonably see a 15% to 20% move and it would probably still be cheap, so there's a chance that if you throw it to the chart here, folks, slide it, earl, that we trade down to the levels we saw around christmas eve which is 17 1/2, 18 but i think we're at a bottom and hope of a trade deal gets the stock probably back to the mid to upper 20s scott. >> all right tim has a question. >> so i agree with you the utilization rate, the prices in steel are impressive and the stock has been nowhere in fact, you could almost mark the first headline to where the stock began to fall out of bed to where are it is so my question to you is ultimately, steel stocks tend to rally when you actually have this dynamic that people understand what the trade environment is what is your catalyst here because i'm not sure we're going to get that in the next --

>> honestly, i think you're right. i'm not a big believer in a trade deal as well but maybe the president feels the mueller investigation behind him, the next thing to do is get a deal with the chinese done. i'm not certain it's going to happen but if things are already in the stock and jpmorgan recently cut their price target in the stock, i think they lo r lowered their rating as well but cut it from i think $34 a share to $33 a share what does that tell me although, listen, it's been bad on a number of different levels to me the risk to the upside in my opinion far outweighs the risk to the downside. >> tells me they cut it by a buck. >> where do you stop it to the downside to tim's point what if we don't have a deal for months seeing manufacturing activities slow dramatically of late. while the tariffs are great they're the only ones that seem to be benefiting less global growth is not a good setup. >> to answer your question, whatever that low is i believe

17 1/2 on or half on christmas eve that's the line of demarcation. dan, xvenlth marks the spot. you see what i did there. >> all right let's vote are you buying guy's pitch or u.s. steel timmy? >> yeah, by the way, i appreciate you pitching with a mets uniform on so let's go mets i'm a buyer and think u.s. steel is a company that's cheap. i've been long it from different levels and long it right now and think it's going higher. >> impressive artwork, right >> grasso? >> it's not the first thing i'd buy but close to oversold so on a technical basis i will say buy it i'll keep it on a shorter leash. instead of that 17 level if it breaks 18 1/2 i say bail you could buy it now i said buy >> danny boy >> i'm not a buyer that's not a surprise. i think guy did a nice job i'll bring up good points. i don't think we'll have a substantive trade deal any time

soon and you'll get to buy it lower. >> you mean people aren't expecting you to buy anything these days >> i don't know. i just -- >> okay. >> just throwing it out. the desk has spoken. now it's time -- it's your turn. at home, are you buying guy's pitch on u.s. steel. vote now in our twitter poll we'll reveal the results later in the show and coming up watch out below because the semis are sinking and fast should you buy the dip or stay ay 'll debate it next [leaf blower] you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad,

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we're back on "fast money. the semis sinking. nvidia, applied materials, micron getting hit in the last week after that big rally to start the year so what do you do now with the semis a couple of downgrades analog devices -- >> look, if we are questioning growth who is going to underperform it's a two-day move in semis off the inthat day high thursday and 5.5% and basically two sessions in semis which arguably had significantly outperformed basically outperformed the s&p by almost ten -- a thousand basis points since the market's rebound so what do you do? i don't think you have to do a whole lot. the chart doesn't look great in

the next couple of days but, you know, we talk about -- i think fortunately people are breaking it down into people like micron and people in more commodity advertis - commoditized businesses. intel is right up the middle. >> you got a problem, right. semis have been a big leader on the way up just like they were a leader late last year on the way down. >> 100%. i mean, some of the moves, cy xilinx -- >> you're just -- say it again. >> 100%. you like the way i say it, a hundred percent. micron, let's quickly talk about micron because steve brought this up. he's right, i was shocked that it rallied off that earnings report because i thought it was a pretty lousy report and now it's trading like it should have last week. i do think given the run that stock has had it's reasonable to see 35 and the bull run won't be over but it's much like apple,

it's gotten ahead of itself. >> you have what bernstein said expectations for the second half egg separated and valuations elevated you have supplies elevated but to micron, to that point just look at the chart on d-ram it follows d-ram almost to a tee. whenever it overextends it evens out. i'd be a seller of semis >> timmy. >> yeah, a hundred percent what he said. >> coming up, i thought i started the conversation. >> i was going to have you button it up i'll do a tease. there are two events that could signal a curve we'll explain. let's get a check on our cramer cam. there it is. jimmy is chatting with thermo fisher's ceo catch him at the top of the hour 300 miles an hour,

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home builders are on a tear. yields sinking and the options market is expecting a bigger move for the group as two key names get set to report earnings going over to the plasma and show us? >> i will.

two home builders reporting. kbh and implied move and lennar implied move 7% in either direction. those two names got me looking at the itb that tracks the shares etf that thing saw car activity three times that of puts today kind of hot and there was one strike in particular in the april 12th weeklies when the etf was trading at 34.60 a buyer 5,000 of the 35 strike calls paying 63 cents to open for those. those break even at 35.63 on april 12th expiration. looks to me like a defined risk play maybe into the group breaking out a little on better than expected earnings we have a couple of charts here, the itb worth taking a look. one reason you may say why would someone trade two weekly -- weekly strike options into an event like this. look at this it's obviously had this big rebound in january and february but since consolidated in march.

if you want to draw a line which i can do sometimes this is banging up a little against some resistance of that downtrend that's been in place over the last year. i want to go to the five-year chart. this is interesting. this is that massive downtrend from the early 2018 highs. look at this consolidation, above that it looks healthy there but if we have a miss and this thing goes back down you dot an air pocket down to 30 bucks and, again, if you're looking at april 12th 35 at the money calls that trade the at about -- closed at 90 cents break even is up about 3%. a way to play it there isson event and know it's interest rate sensitive. >> danny, what you got >> in the home builders the existing home sales crushed estimates and rates that are not going higher so that's been a headwind people have been trading it off rates oddly enough lumber prices have come in there's a lot of tailwinds and i think the bear these sis is

drying up in the home builders i'm still long lennar. >> home builders didn't do well when we were at record low interest rates i agree they certainly get headwinds when interest rates start to move higher i look across the space and think they are arranged bound trades and think they were oversold and interest rate association is wrong and think the biggest issue for a housing market there is a lack of affordability and lack of supply and that's been the issue. >> which will catch up to the home builders i think in the quarters to come but i think for this quarter and good for steve i think they continue to rally into the quarter and people will look at interest rate, number one so i do think there is upside number two, the defiant ones was a great movie, 1958. you mentioned being defiant. >> no, i was defiant >> sidney poitier. >> i thought you were talking about dr. dre and jimmy iovine -- >> we should get back to --

>> sorry about that. >> dating yourself for more check out the full show friday 5:30 p.m. eastern te.im up next we'll do final trades. i don't know what's going on. >> announcer: options action is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade you're still not sureu want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪ that we're playing "four on four" with a barbershop quartet? [quartet singing] bum bum bum bum... pass the ball... pass the rock.. ...we're open just pass the ball! no, i can't believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on my car insurance with geico.

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up 30% could thermo-fisher's ceo have some info and a long and fast

look "mad money" is next. welcome back it was a close call but unfortunately x did not mark the spot america is not buying guy a pitch. ♪ unbreak my heart >> it's a shame. wasn't even close. >> the dance moves. >> i have no idea. it wasn't even close. >> it's never close. >> in fact, you didn't dance, guy. >> this is an awful song before the awful mix. >> i thought you had a shot. >> i don't know. you did -- >> on the desk, right? >> we're indicative of -- >> the power you have to sway america. >> yeah, we do a good job. >> let's do final trades tim. >> we talked about apple the way i look at the apple announcement if being an aggregator and number two to netflix is what they're shooting for, good for them i want to be long apple. >> grasso. >> jim cramer has a great interview, thermo-fisher and going on that tomorrow morning >> danny. >> the cramer effect don't buy the banks.

you'll get an opportunity lower and buy them into q1 earnings. >> guy. >> great to have you here. >> it's been a pleasure. >> see you wednesday >> yes, you will >> yes, you will. >> u.s. steel in your face. >> does it for us. more "fast." my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends i'm just trying to make you some money, my job is not just to entertain, but teach and put in context call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. what more did we want from apple for heaven's sake? th