sfliencht it is now 5:00 a.m. at cnbc here is your doppler five at 5:00 historic deal news uber is buying its rival for more than $3 billion lawmakers seizing control of the brexit process, but theresa may. we'll take you live in moments sam saung u sung out with a big warning. why the company sees first quarter earnings coming in below expectations despite something jimmy fallon did would you like some fries with that mcdonald's just made one of its biggest acquisitions in two

decades. on this tuesday, march 26th, as worldwide exchange begins right now. good morning good good evening welcome from wherever in the world that you may be watching i'm brian sullivan you are looking live right here over my shoulder at a shot of london where the brexit drama just took another major twist. we are live on the ground with the late-breaking details in moments, but, first, we have some historic breaking deal fuse uber is buying its rival careem for $3.1 billion $1.4 billion in cold hard cash now, this deal will still need regulatory approval, but uber expects it to close in the first quarter of the year. if approved, this would be the biggest technology deal ever in the middle east. truly historic let's get a check of how the global markets are setting up

this tuesday stock futures on the dow should rise at the open yes, fair value done a bit up 85. one of the types of mornings where you look at these two numbers and you think which one do i pay attention to? well, pay attention to it open, and we are seeing green on the screen the bond market, though, that has truly been a remarkable story. the bench mash yield is now moving much this morning 2.43%. by the way, that's going to help mortgage rates something we'll talk about a bit later on in the program. overnight in asia, this time yesterday we talked about a 3% haircut for japan. well, they bounced become a bit. the nikkei gaining in the hang sang 3% down yesterday. 2% up this morning in europe again more green on the screen kind of following our futures as well. the german dax down .3%. they have turned around a bit. green on the screen about an hour ago by the way, mixed trade now in

europe let us stay with yourp because there was a big new twist in the brexit debate. u.k. lawmakers voting to seize control of the entire brexit process from embattled prime minister theresa may the only thing certain by this move is that nothing still remains certain. willem marks is lot of in london with more. willem, i don't want to say it's a confusing situation, but it's certainly a big new turn in this story. >> i think the feeling is pretty fair what happened last night was the government essentially laid down a vote saying here's where we are. this is what we intend to do next, and they allowed lawmakers to make changes to that motion what some lawmakers decided to do was essentially add an amendment to the motion saying what we would like to see tomorrow, wednesday, is a series of votes up or down on a number of different alternatives to theresa may, the prime minister's, own brexit deal. they won that vote they got 30 members of theresa

may's conservative party to vote for it, including three government ministers who then resigned their position as ministers. theresa may has been hemorrhaging ministers because the system here means that if you vote against the government as a member of the government, you are resumptive we'll see a number of options including a reversal of brexit, a potential second referendum, some softer versions of brexit, including long-term custom unions membership, and some other alternatives we don't yet know about those. mps will then face those up or down over the course of the evening. brian. >> well, willem, given this was really spearheaded by some members of theresa may's own party, does this effectively signal the end of her prime ministerhood >> what she actually did yesterday was say i have some huge reservations about this process, and there is little precedent for this kind of voting

there is little precedence for parliament taking control of business in the house of commons, which is typically led you about the government we had a lot of speculation over the weekend here in the u.k. about the prime minister's future some members of her own party saying she should now step down, but there's no guarantee that will help her deal get through or indeed any deal get through willem marks live in london. thank you very much. >> brexit, of course, one of the major touch points for any global investment. the future of the u.k. in the news still one of if not the biggest question mark for equities ahead you are there and living this, sven the longer this goes on. i know you are not an economist, but here's the thing the longer this goes on, how much is that simply a drag on u.k. growth and e.u. growth? >> it's been a tremendous drag simply because the -- there's so much uncertificate, and a lot of

investment decisions are placed on hold. to the extent you're going to get some clarity, hopefully soon, then obviously -- whether it's obviously the issue, you know what you are dealing with versus not doling with >> can you imagine being the ceo of a midsize or large corporation that's based in the u.k. how do you make plans or capital spending plans how do you know where to hire and where to grow when you don't know what your trade partnerships are going to be >> that's exactly it you are on hold. this actually also applies to the china trade deal, right? we're supposed to get something into early march, and it's now being pushed out into april. the longer that's dragging out as well, the longer that impacts global trade there's a lot of pressure to finally get something done keep in mind, one of the key reasons earnings estimates have come down and growth projections keep coming down is because there are two big uncertainties

lingering around they're a big trigger here in the next few weeks >> you always say stuff that sort of catches our ear. if you were a viking, maybe you are, sven, i'll call you sven the sarkassic because you have this wicked sense of humor you said the fed, wall street is quote chasing reality. what do you mean by that >> well, look, let's go back to where we were last year, right the u.s. government was projecting 3% to 4% gdp growth and a shrinking deficit. we got the opposite. we had slowing growth and the fed projecting 2% growth and less than 2% growth next year, and, obviously, we just had the largest deficit in u.s. history last week for february on the side of the fed, that was a complete 1180 this last few months ago balance sheet roll-off on autopilot for rate hikes in 2019 that's not happening

and even wall street, you know, going back to just september-october, there were market upgrades. there were stock upgrades. obviously, none of them projected an earnings recession from q1 in 2019. that's exactly what's happening. that's why i'm saying everybody is chasing reality here. at the same time there's a lot of uncertainty expressed that there will not be a recession, even though the yoeld curve has just -- that track record has an 85% probability that a recession may unfold in the next six months to two years. it's a wide range. >> you know, the signals, i can't recall a time in the last couple of years where the signals seemed so different. on one hand, sven, we just showed it to our audience, you had a ten-year u.s. note yielding 4.3%. on the other hand, you got an s&p 500 that's up 13% this year. somebody, i think, is going to be spectacularly wrong

>> well, look, put it in context. why are we saying that in the late december we were vastly oversold, and so it totally made sense to reconnect to the moving average and all this stuff what happened then, though, we had obviously the fed being the main driver of this rally on the one hand who was completely switching policy then we had massive buy-backs coming in. by the way, those are coming out now for a few weeks during the earnings season. so this rally has actually -- it kind of is zooefing here in the last few weeks, and i say zooefing because we see the s&p and the ndx actually being very hy-vigh visa vi the rest of the market transports and banks have really been selling off quite a bit in march. >> you are worried, sven wrap it up are you worried about the u.s. markets? >> i am concerned. yes, we have these up side

triggers if they play out, we can rally nicely, but there are warning signs underneath the market that says pay attention we're still close to perhaps breaking a major pattern here on the s&p, but it hasn't happened yet. so far so good watch out for the data and watch out for q1 earnings reports and the outlooks and see if there's going to be any revisions to the down side. earnings estimates may still be too high >> a lot of gdp numbers that are going to roll out in europe and the u.s. thank you very much. well, it is not all about uber and breck xit. some of the other big stories this morning frank holland has those. >> samsung is issuing a profit warning. the world estlargest mobile phone maker it is first quarter earnings will come in below expectations on weak demand for its display business and chip products this morning shares are down about half a percent now over to fast food. mcdonald's making a high-tech

upgrade to its drive-through they're buying tech that will allow customers to see their drive-through menus actually change in real-time based on things like the weather and current restaurant traffic mcdobld's says it's already tested the new tech, and it's going to roll it out to more restaurant locations this year mcdonald's shares, they're not really moving in the premarket 1 85 is the price right now. now to the sharing economy wework says revenues doubled in 2018 so did losses. the number of monthly users also more than doubled. the company still remains depend oent private equity as it expands to residential living and even schools no word an ipo >> see you in a bit. we are getting started on worldwide exchange hollywo hollywood's a les. a big bet on future, but did the company do enough detail to make investors comfortable? plus, one key mart part of the oil market doing something it has never done before. dom has more on that, and later on new fall-out this morning

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>> hey, brian. yeah, it was a star-studded event yesterday at apple's unveiling of its new streaming service. we got a lot of stars there, but what we didn't get were some key details like pricing what we know is that apple tv plus will be home to the original content which was touted on stage in celebrity appearances from steven speilberg, oprah winfrey, several others the service will be available in the fall of this year. meanwhile, apple also upgrading its existing tv app to include more channels like hbo, showtime, and cbs all access this move signals the company's shift from hardware towards services, and it will be available on smart tvs like samsung and amazon fire tv and roku another announcement in the event yesterday that's been generating a lot of buzz is apple's new credit card called apple card the card is backed by goldman sachs and uses the master card network. it's made for iphone specifically, but it will be also on a titanium physical card itself

apple also unveiling some new service, another service there this is the one thing we got pricing for at $9.99 a month access to over 300 magazines and in addition to some news subscriptions like the "wall street journal" with some limited access there finally we have apple arcade this is a gaming service more than 300 games exclusive. a bunch of new offerings they were foek they were focused on all the new service offerings. it might not have been enough. it's a shift in the company, but this is already a competitive market shares did close lower after the event. back to you. >> elizabeth, thank you very much now let's bring in cyrus, head of investment research at global data it was a big event, but there was some criticism out there, and there's an article on cnbc.com about this exact point. there maybe wasn't enough hard data around pricing. were you satisfied with what you heard yesterday?

>> that's right. i agree with those commentators. there was a big marketing push from apple yesterday that they were moving into delk tal services and they have to do that wrashapple needs to move from a hardware company to a services company, and it can do that tv is one component. >> the stock price may be telling the story, is it not >> yeah. if you look -- if you sit back and look at the big picture, i mean, never in history has a hardware company maintained super normal profits forever they know they need to move to services to put that into perspective, it's only 15% of apple's

revenues, but $40 billion and apple services compares to $55 billion in facebook, and facebook is one of the largest companies in the world again, even if it gets as many subscribers as apple music, 56 million, that is only about 3% of revenues. last year revenues were about $265 billion even if all 900 million iphone users across the world, the active user base, if they subscribe, then it will be $1 is00 billion business, and that will take it to over $50 billion of services revenue in proportion it could be successful that's highly unlikely the most successful video streaming service in the world is netflix, and that's got 150 million, and it's highly unlikely that apple can super impose netflix because it lacks the content.

>> lots of if's and could's. we'll see how it plays out cyrus, global data, thank you. right on deck, a tug-of-war perhaps america's most important economy. housing. the two major factors in play as we head into the busiest time of year for real estate the bulls are out in force when it comes to nintendo the house of mario when we return

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zwrienchts welcome back. keep an eye on shares of nintendo they are surging the stock nearly up 5% on reports they are set to row lease not one, but two new versions of their popular switch console as early as this summer. switch is anyone tend yoes ae best-selling console in its history. get ready for your kids to ask for it today we get numbers on housing starts and the kay shiller home index at 10:00 a.m. thursday you get pending home sales and friday new home sales. all of this as bond yields continue to fall joining us now is mark flem, chief economist at first american mortgage. mark, what will we know when you look into your crystal ball? when this week is over, what's it going to tell us about housing? >> i think, well, the biggest one obviously is the price data related to today

that's -- this would be january numbers. it's not even going to reflect some of the stuff that's gone on in the housing market last couple of years. >> you mentioned bond rates are down mortgage rates are barely 4% again, and that's driving a lot of affordability and demand side growth it's likely to put a lot of price pressure up. we'll see in the next couple of months rising prices yet again >> that's the amazing thing about what's happened. this time last year i was asking you about the trouble with housing because bond yields were going up, and affordability was going down wow, what a switch we've seen. >> it's a total turnaround it's really being driven by that decline in rates i was really surprised >> you're not the only one don't be hard on yourself. >> my crystal ball is pretty cloudy, i guess. we all thought, yeah, rates have to go up, and they did in 2018 the sensitivity of the market to go up on public demand side was a bit of a shock we'll really getting lucky yet

again. >> you know, every time we've seen mortgage rates slow, the problem with housing has been there is not much to buy inventory. the number of people selling their homes has been down. that's recovering? >> you have a huge supply problem. it's not just around -- that's why we're looking at housing starts we've underbuilt for the last decade there are so many new households that have formed like shelter, and we're just really -- we really had a housing shortage at play today all of this is why we continue to see house prices going up >> now, you live in outside of d.c., correct? high tax area. >> right >> maryland, virginia, parts of virginia, new jersey you know, those if -- the removal, the cap on that deduction. i know in my town we see more for sale signs have we seen that trickling through in a negative way now? >> yes, in a way everything that i just talked about is in the low and middle he wanted of the

housing market, and that's not the high end of the housing market particularly the ultra high, where that sort of tax refugee is looking for somewhere else to live because of the -- >> if you have a high property tax number in a high tax state, it's harder to sell your home right now. >> it's much harder. people won't want to buy into that if they're not in that already, and you want to get out of that. migration from new york to florida and then in california, california was out migrating to arizona and nevada you can see that, you you know, if you can move when you are wealthy, have an expensive home, they are >> yeah. i think we'll title this segment on-line "taxes matter. art flem, first american always a pleasure to see you let's get a look at the other top headlines. frances riviera with those >> we start with an investigation into election meddling a growing chorus of lawmakers

are calling on attorney general william barr to release all of the special counsel's findings instead of just his four-page summary. top democrats have demanded the attorney general release the full report to congress no later than next tuesday. the attorney who once represented stormy daniels in her legal battle with president trump is due in court next week for a legal battle of his own. michael avenatti has been accused of trying to extort millions of dollars from nike and in los angeles he is accused of embezzling money from a client and bank fraud. after posting a $300,000 bond last night, he told reporters he will be fully exonerated a historic moment this week for nasa will be delayed due to a lack of the right sized space suits on the iss nasa had to cancel friday's first all female space walk replacing one of the women with a man. those are your headlines we seventh send it back to you >> you think that could be

something they would have figured out hfd tiahead of time. >> with all the math, you have a tape measure, could have been fixed. >> thank you very much when we come back, more on uber's big bet an historic deal in the middle east later, more on the recent surge in oil why your next guest says there may be more room to run, and we have a really interesting sectornomics with our friend, dom. stick around and help you make those tough decisions, that's morgan stanley. they're industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. i'm really excited to be part of the morgan stanley team. i'm justin rose. we are morgan stanley. your but as you get older,hing. it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain

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uber is buying careem for

$3.1 billion the full details ahead crude reality. one key part of the oil market that has done something that it has never ever done before we'll tell you what it is. holy moly. a major food recall to tell you about. if you like avocados, listen up. worldwide exchange rolls on right now. welcome back thank you for being with us on cnbc on this tuesday morning i'm brian sullivan let's kick off the second half of the show with your executive recap. all the news you need to know in about 60 seconds frank holland, are you up for it >> here's what's leading cnbc.com right now uber reaching a deal to acquire dubai-based competitor careem for $3.1 billion now, this news comes as uber edges closer to its highly anticipated ipo. some reports say that uber could be valued at as much as $120 million.

this is uber's biggest acquisition ever uber is not alone. mcdonald's inking its biggest deal in 20 years the fast food giant is buying israeli-based tech firm dynamic yield for $300 million this new tech will allow mcdonald's digital drive-through menus to change based on factors like the weather and even the traffic being inside of the restaurant now mobile phone news. samsung is issuing its second profit warning of the year the smartphone giant says q1 earnings will likely fall short of expectations due to falling chip prices and weak demand. samsung shares are down about a half a percent right now brian, back to you >> frank, see you in a bit here's how your money and investments look right now halfway through the 5:00 a.m. -- it's 5:31 if you are counting. stock futures indicating what could be a nice pop at the opener remember, yesterday the futures were down. the markets came back a bit, of course all after the 450 point drop that we had on friday. dow futures with an implied open of 114 points right now.

>> your previous guest outlined how we got such a supply problem in the housing market. i think maybe the market is anticipating that we're going to get some pretty good housing numbers today and now in terms of that. >> you're still bullish on small cap equities a lot of talk about a u.s. economic slowdown. it sounds like you're not that concerned. >> well, brian, it's kind of --

it's kind of a two-edge twoswor type situation i'm concerned about all the global concerns, the trade war with kmooin, and hopefully that gets resolved. we still don't know. you talked about brexit earlier in your show the problems there those fears, as we go forward, if they are unresolved, they're going to buffett big cap multi-nationals. i'm looking more towards small cap growth stocks as a safe haven, i guess, because they tend to be more domestic they're not a lot of multi-nationals in that space. it's not necessarily that i'm seeing rapid u.s. growth in fact, i agree with the fed that we're starting to see some kind of slowdown of course, the inverted yield curve is maybe telling us that as well. that's the reason i like small cap growth stocks. >> okay. let's talk about both those things together then you mentioned the inverted yoeld curve. the three-month, ten-year spread two and tens haven't done it yet. sounds like you don't believe that we're going to be in a recession 12 months from now

do you >> well, you know, this is all about risk management. you know, as one of your previous guests mentioned an inverted yield curve is not always right it's right 85% of the time not always right there have been -- it has incorrectly predicted recessions in the past when we had slowdowns. the other thing, too, is we -- your other guests are getting some really great information on this it doesn't happen for six months to two years we still have some time for recovery here. the fed has come out and said they think the chance of recession is only 25%. i'm not willing to completely just jump into the recession boat >> 85% somebody said, hey, the steelers are going to win 85% of the time, that's a pretty good bet, right? i mean, why own any stocks at all then >> well, i think something else that needs to be explored a little bit more here is what has all the qe around the globe

really done globally to yoeield curves that's something i am looking into, and i suspect that we're seeing some distortions right now as well. maybe that 85% probability isn't really 85% i'm still doing some work on that, and imauto not -- i'll essential come out with a note on it. i'm not really ready to -- the fed, as i said -- the fed thinks there's only a 25% chance of a recession. they've been wrong before. i'm still on their side at this point. >> all right, rob. when you come out with that, we're going to get you back on, and we're going to dive in you make us that promise >> i promise, brian. absolutely >> i love promises >> thank you very much.

>> the ticker oih was inseptembered back in 2001, and since then, we have not had a q1 as strong as we've had so far this year. as you can see here on a year-to-date basis, that vektor oil services etf about 20% to the up side. best q1 on pace for it since the inception of the fund back in 2001 meanwhile, the energy sector spider not doing that bad. up about 15% the spider overall for the s&p 500 up 12. energy outperforming oilfields services specifically doing really well. if you want to take a look at where that driving action was

coming from with regard to oil build services, it is maybe like rob morgan just mentioned in the previous segment, more on the small to mid-cap side of things. some names well known. some not as much halliburton and slumberge. the two biggest names in oil field services, up around 6% to 18%. so far year-to-date. not bad. take a look at trans-ocean midcap stock, $5 billion market cap up 27% already this year then neighbors industries also a rig company -- a rig operator of 73%, and u.s. silica, a small to mid-cap silicon company that's used in fracturing they're up huge, too about 61%. a big move for oil field services stock back to you. >> you know, dom, you have often said know what you own when it comes to etfs. don't just buy an etf and hope that, oh, i like the sector. the oih, okay, not thinly traded, but not the most liquid and 25% of it is just two of

those names you mentioned. slumberge and halliburton. >> as we talk about oil field services, it is important to know that these are cap weighted those are big parts of it. for those people who have been looking towards some of that outperformance, this has been a part of the oil services -- the oil services sector has been a part of the energy sector that has been an underperforminger for the past few years now even as energy process rose. it's certainly something to watch. >> did the market is saying a different story. a bearish indicator. the commodity in equity markets are a lot stronger i think to don's point, a good part of this is short covering in both the equity side and the commodity side if you look at the number of long vets that have been placed

in both energy stocks as well as in the commodity, they are first smaller than the number of short bets that have been covered. i think that we have some mean reversion. i don't know if there's a lot of conviction around prices sustaining around $60 a barrel i think that that's a problem. >> one of the parts that we speak about often with regard to energy is this whied that we could see people getting more into it. i guess -- >> they've been going for a decade >> a decade of just investors leaving, wiped out, haven't made -- >> i guess if you start to look at fund flows, that's where you kind of start to see a little bit more of that subtly. >> a big part of this is mean reversion. if you see the oil fugts curve,

it is now backward data so that means that the current prices are trading at a premium to the futures prices it really speaks to the shortages in supply. particularly led by the opec production cuts, which have been turbo charged by a little help from their friends -- iran, canada, venezuela have been cutting back some of that that's involuntary. prices are really shorted, but we don't link to that shortage, but we don't have a lot of conviction about demand, where it's not really a price rally that's driven by fundamentals being driven by a strong economy. >> the one sector that you talked about, you talk about trans-ocean. rig is the -- is there a deep water services company remember, we went on the helicopter a few months ago. we're out on that rig, and it was like -- those were trans-ocean. the reason we do this kind of stuff is to show people, look, these are all trans-ocean ships that are busy again because billions of capital spending for the first time in years has gone back in to the deep water.

dlz maybe nothing longer term, dom, than spending on off shore. >> no, no. >> these are ten-year commitments. >> there's no doubt. the off shore side of things, which is probably the reason why you are seeing trans-ocean do well, also neighbors a small smaller competitor ai rig operator on and off shore. the idea that companies are now spending more on that kuch thing is going to be big i would be curious, mega cap oil names have often been criticized for some of the capital spending they've done how much money they're going to sink into these. whether it makes them more nimble or not. the point there is whether or not some of these stocks are going to be able to navigate some of those types of oil flunk wags that we'll see perhaps in the coming months. >> well, i think that the interesting thing is that we talk about what does it mean fort oil price that companies have been cutting back on their level of spending. some of them have been cutting back because their shareholders are demanding it, but i think the level of spending is coming down because costs around the world are coming down. tax structures are coming down

the operational costs are coming down oil services companies have felt the brint of that even as emp's and upstream companies have been able to capture the up side from higher oil prices where. >> they're the ones who get pressured. the ceos who hire the slumberges of the world say cut your costs. at some point you cut meat, it not necessarily bone >> it gets tougher they've gotten smarter they have. >> the key now will be whether the pricing dynamics in the oil market, specific lit to geography, will play out, radio it we talk about u.s. shale often, and the economy or the economics and numbers that go around there, and how that kind of plays in with some of the other big oil producing areas around the world. whether or not those oil majors can be a part of that and navigate that low will probably -- >> do you think that the oil prices can stick around where they are venezuela, they could be producing zero barrels of oil. zero >> i think oil prices -- >> they could be at zero right now. we don't know. >> certainly to the u.s., the exports are not zero

i think exports go higher before they go lower. i don't think it's sustainable at this level. i think you can see a similar situp to last year where in the back half of the year we started to fall. especially if u.s. production continues to outpace expectations that's an area where the oil services companies are really in focus right now because as these wells are being drilled closer and closer together, it's eye roading the productive capacity of those wells you really need the ingenuity of the engineers to help them navigate that problem. >> great discussion tomorrow by the way, have you seen what's happening in houston there was a petro-chemical spill in the ship channel of houston all these ships can't get into the port by the way, take a look at this from marine traffic.m kol. that's the fire that led to the spill. those red dots are all oil tankers. trust me, you know, this is one of my second hobbies i like looking at marine traffic.com and eating hot dogs. that is not normally what you see. those are 50, 60 super tankers that are stuck >> stuck

>> at anchor not able to deliver oil. just keep an eye on this we show you this not because there's a lot of cool red dots, but you never know what could happen with gasoline availability if that continues great discussion, gouys. >> coming up, imagine taking off from miami for new york, but landing in chicago that's basically what happened on a british airways flight on a story you got to hear. later on, a staggering stack about your money can you guess the average return for an s&p 500 stock this year 44n e rnss 5: ithmoing. back after this.

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welcome back time for the top trending stories. frank, what are we going to be talking about in the office today besides the market moves >> we're going to talk about this late night tv can be a revolution for one night it was on the tonight show with jimmy fallon it was a little different than usual. they did something out of the box. take a check >> i asked nbc if we could possibly do a whole show shot on a phone, and they said yes >> the show was shot entirely with a samsung galaxy s10 galaxy phone. no sitdowns. instead it was from sites and sat down at a pub with ufc champion conor mcgregor.

very different >> yeah. very different how did the -- they didn't get in a fight or anything >> after they did this interview, connormcgregor announced he retires i don't know if this -- >> he just made it up just then with jimmy fallon or it was after? >> after the camera phone -- >> i thought he had a few pints and said i retire. terrible access by me. >> avocados are being recalled in six states over listeria concerns >> i wanted to use the banner holy moly guacamole. >> you'll like this one. british airways passengers on a flight from london to germany got a little bift a surprise their flight landed in scotland. a wee bit of a surprise. not germany. no mechanic issue or medical

emergency. just a good old-fashioned paperwork mix-up with the wrong flight plan. the plane landed, and the flight attendant asked for a show of hands who is headed to -- then the pilot apologized to the passengers and took off again. this time to the correct -- >> wow it wasn't a pilot error necessarily. it wasn't like let's go to scotland it was paperwork, but, still, you're in london you are headed to germany for the -- concerts. >> your accented are terrible. >> i flew back from san francisco yesterday morning. twou actually, our flight map said dulles i finally asked the cabin and said where are we going? we went to newark. the thing was wrong. i'm glad the pilot didn't look at -- >> you know what's funny, in europe it must be different. every flight i get on the pilot -- like, when did he not go to the loudspeaker and say we're headed eddinburg >> i think they travel so much

sometimes you probably get caught up in where you are going. thank you very much. >> not good. >> on deck, a double reason maybe to double down not one, but two staggering ulats about your money pa hicke is with us. he brings us next.

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and help him get tickets to the mozart festival. excuse me, grant likes beethoven! uh, the beethoven festival. pure. love your insurance. zbloinchts welcome back. good morning 5:52 it is a pretty good morning if you own u.s. stocks because despite friday's big slide, 450 points, yesterday is back and forth. a little bit of a premarket rally on our hands right now the dow is open 137 points right now nasdaq and s&p also looking very strong today. here's a rather staggering stat about your stock money according to the despoke investment group, the average stock of the s&p 500 is up 12.5% this year. joining us now is paul hicke, co-founder of that firm, bespoke investment group you know, all this talk, all

about global economic slowdowns and the possibility of u.s. recession, but yet, the average stock is -- what due think >> it's pretty amaze, and i think when you have to take the sell-off last week, you have -- there's still an average of 12ers approximate, and the average stock -- it's even more surprising despite the fact that with all this worry about global -- the global economy, stocks were the most international exposure and the ones doing the best this year. 50 stocks in the s&p 500 have the highest international exposure and they are up close to 20% this year on average. you've seen some real strength in these stocks, and it suggests that maybe as bad as the headlines are in europe and the rest of the world, maybe things are going to get a little better >> i think that's important. repeat that. companies that have higher global exposure have done better >> the largest in the multi-nationals have done the best they've averaged an average gain of just under 20%. >> hardly screaming global

slowdown >> i think when you look at other periods, when you see negative economic headlines, we saw negative -- in japan two weeks ago. you look back at prior periods where we saw the real weakness in the headlines longer term proof. >> you think that can continue >> i think a lot of this does have to do with yield curve in your prior segment you were talking about recession risk of a yield curve. the importance of a yield curve is how long are we inverted for? when you first invert, marke performance has been positive. >> hugely important point you are making right now i want everybody to listen up to what you just said it's not if the yield curve inverts that causing doom. it's if it stays inverted. >> the longer you have this situation, the more -- the higher the risk goes >> where do we stand right now what's the risk level right now? >> i think if we can go a few days inverted and then start speaking again, i don't think

the concerns are as worrisome. i think when you focus on the market, you want our big area of focus is semiconductors. they've been a great leadership for the market overall for the last six years every major sell-off to the stock market has been preceded by other performers. >> what are semis telling us right now? >> as of monday -- or as of friday, the relative strength was that at a new high for this current rally? >> green on the screen >> they haven't rolled over yet. >> thank you, but stick around we're going to do something we've never done before. time for your morning rbi. the most random but interesting thing you're going to hear all day, and today it comes from this guy named paul hicke from bespoke investment group who just happens to be sitting beside us because i thought this was a good enough stat that it wab so random and so interesting, and this is something you guys do better than anybody else. going back, what, 70e years or whatever the tracking data you have done. when the s&p has a down more

than 10% quarter, as we just did in the fourth quarter of 2018, what happens >> you have seen strong responses for the quarter after, next two quarters, and the following year you've seen the average gain over the last quarter is about 6% or 7% the next two quarters is over 10% and over the next year is about 15%. longer term. you tend to get overexaggeration, and then as things settle down, investors dw back >> and they have come back, and i think it's spectacularly interesting. it's random. it is definitely interesting and very important paul, bespoke. there you go if you missed it, toelgs whenever the s&p falls more than 10% in a quarter, the average gain the next two quarters is

11.28% thank you for watching worldwide exchange we are seeing stock futures up 140 points "squawk box" will pick up the coverage i'll see you in the 5:00 p.m. show tonight take care. sometimes a cough gets in the way of a good night's sleep. that's when he needs vicks vaporub. proven cough medicine. with 8 hours of vapors, so he can sleep. vicks vaporub. goodnight coughs.

good morning uber buying middle east rival careem for $3.1 billion. we're going to get a live report from dubai straight ahead. mcdonacdonald's making its biggest acquisition in two decades. the ten-year yield dropping to 2019 lows as stocks push higher we'll tell you what it could be signaling and what it means for your investments tuesday, march 26, 2019. "squawk box" begins right now.

life from new york this is "squawk box. good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and mike san tolltolli. u.s. equities futures are doing better after a lackluster day. the dow up by 14 points. the s&p and the nasdaq were both down just slightly are dow still down by 1.5% needs to make that up in the next few trading days. the dow future