it really depends. also, software and i.t. is picking up this month. >> a bright spot caroline, thank you so much. >> thank you, kelly. appreciate all the details the managing news editor of linkedin that does it for "the exchange." i'll join tyler on "power lunch" which begins right now. >> we'll see you in a moment welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen new at 2:00 today, bets on a fed rate cut are rising. we'll tell you what that could mean for investors like you. plus, 24 hours later is apple's much hyped tv service leaving more questions than answers? and passwords, bank accounts, wills, investments, essential strategies when life throws you a curveball. stocks in the green right now but well off the highs up about 62 on the industrials, 28 on the nasdaq dow up 280 points earlier today. we'll explore the whys and

wherefores as "power lunch" begins right now we do begin this hour with the fading rally bob pisani tracks the action from the new york stock exchange floor. hi, bob. >> hello, old friend stocks up, well off the high not a lot of clear catalysts today. most important development early on was a pause in the recent treasury rally yields mostly up today after dropping 3 of the last 4 days. strong demand for two year paper at the auction this afternoon. stocks lower since then and bank stocks here outperforming all throughout the day economic data today, kind of crummy, consumer confidence missed and way below expectations dr hor mon and all those stocks trading to the downside. oil near $60 close to the high of the year and energy stocks are a bright spot big outperformer this year

overall and the ipo break continues. lyft reportedly seek price shares above the targeted range of 62 to 68. wait a minute, that implies a valuation north of $23 billion look here at this list way above the last funding these ipo people starting to get a little greedy. back to you. >> the ipoetf having best quarter ever, bob. thanks the stunning reversal on rate hikes. now a rate cut could come sooner than you think a closer look at that. steve? >> the idea of the fed cutting, the market has changed dramatically december of 2019 the fed funds up 50% chance of a quarter cut in september and those rise to 64% by december.

folks, it wasn't a number over 50% until january of 2020 last week so what happened first, the fed on wednesday came out with a more dovish set of moves than the markets had expected key economic data overasseseas came in weaker two fed officials just said rate cuts could be a possibility along with the curve inversion as well. a rate cut could be a sharper version that hiked rates in december increasingly criticized as a mistake. is it worth remembering here at the last meeting the fed emphasized the policy into neutral leaning towards a hike nor a cut. markets taking that a step further. minority cut a few days ago and making it the odds on bet. >> steve, stay with us for a moment chief economic adviser, mohammed on squawk box earlier today. doesn't see a recession ahead.

>> we could get a policy mistake and talk about the dramatic u-turn but it's hard to see a recession this year and next year. >> when it comes to stocks versus bonds, which is sending the right signal to investors? with janny montgomery. is the fall in yields telling us more about the absence in inflation or growth and why. >> i think probably more of the former rather than the ladder. we've been traipsing along without seeing inflation, if ever, exceeding the expected target of inflation of 2% established by the federal reserve. committed to now more of a

symmetrical outcome to hope they can hold above a 2% level to allow to tow above the 2% level. >> the bond yield is not saying it's going into arrest, right? >> i think it's reflecting what it typically does to say at or around the neutral rate, the curve tends to flatten out that's what we see now >> what do you see as we interpret bond yields today? >> there is some concern about long-term growth right, and sustainability of that growth. take a look at the ten year yield. it's on top of the funds rate and that's telling us, the market is telling us short-term rates should be lower. so i think it's a function of the lack of inflation but also is a concern about long-term growth and the market thinking this is not sustainable at the rates here today >> at the risk of overstating this, steve and i want to get your thought on this too, at the

risk of overstating this, the fed was pretty attuned to what the market was telling it back in october, november, december and it acted is the fed, as nisha just said, react to the market that seems to be saying short-term rates are too high and need to come down so the end of my question, is a rate cut coming? >> i think the fed likely to react the other way. powell might believe that we gave them an inch and tai took a mile to use a cliche that works quite well right there and the story you might see is i think where powell wants to be in the middle there's a gear that's called neutral on your dashboard. i think if the market will persist in the idea of pricing

in a cut, i would expect one of the big three, i'd say, powell, williams, or clairta to push back and move it towards the center. >> if we compare now to the '06 or '07 example, is the bigger difference that the fed stopped raising rates and kept hiking after that inversion if inverted in january of 2006, i believe they kept hiking as that was playing out this time around, already saying we're stepping back. >> we're stepping back and i also think the issue now that they have to deal with is that they're now less dovish than the central banks overassess thseas matter to them in terms of pulling it down. it does limit the possibilities. >> it's important to mention that sovereign debt-wise

dollars trading at negative yields investors in those countries >> get us inside the mind of a person buying the bond with a negative 0.17 where are they going to look to invest that makes u.s. yields look attractive maybe today's rates. that's gravity keeping the yields down and a different story than the stock market. >> jump in here, what should i do with my money >> tyler, i think we're ripe for a period after the gains we've had that have come so quickly here ultimately, the second half is going to be rewarding for equity investors, particularly, global equities china's stimulus efforts start subtraction and we see better non-u.s. growth that should put pressure down on the dollar and help improve corporate earnings and equity prices to continue to

advance. i'd stay long through here and look the position over the second half of 2019. >> give steve the final thoughts. >> quick thought i wonder when the fed goes to neutral. if people on the sidelines who were thinking yields were going to move higher, but now say, all right, i need to buy because i do need to buy for reasons of matching maturities, things. and maybe this thing is a bit of an overreaction and that you do get some stability back where yields would pop up a bit. >> final thought is yours. >> i think we're seeing that today. a little bit of that correction in the bond market today and maybe what the market needed to see after a knee jerk reaction, digest the information and take in, okay, if the fed is on the sidelines, this is enough. we are still seeing some bright spots in, i would argue, the labor market consumer confidence comes in below expectations but let's see what the long-term trend is. gdp growth figures very important and i see that on

track closely 2% for the year. i think if economic data continues to model along and not drastically weaken, we could see an increase in yields but again, you're going to have to see a ceiling there because there's a lot of cash on sidelines and again, with a lot of sovereign debt is, you're going to see continued demand for treasury yields >> nisha, mark, steve liesman, thank you. president trump meeting with senate republicans on capitol hill and coming back to the white house with members of congress on trade. eamon javers is tracking all the news and action from the white house. >> reporter: that's right. looks like we move into a post-mueller political washington here. the democrats on capitol hill are demanding to see the full mueller report by april 2nd. they want doj to turn over an unredacted version of that that certain hill leaders are entitled to see. that fight continues to play out.

meanwhile, both parties turn to other fights in washington, particularly health care and this issue of the border wall, where the pentagon reprogrammed a billion dollars expected to go elsewhere towards some border fence construction on the southern border. also, on health care, we're seeing trump department of justice weighing in now and arguing that the obamacare law itself is unconstitutional and should be struck down now that the individual mandate has been removed. that raises a big question about what happens to all the people who depend on certain aspects of obamacare, that remain as of right now. that is a political fight that republicans seem to be relishing. the president, as you say, up on capitol hill right now, talking with senate republicans about that post-mueller political future in many ways what the legislative agenda is going forward. here's what he said on the way in to the lunch. gives you a sense of what's on his mind >> let me just tell you exactly what my message is

the republican party will soon be known as the party of health care you watch. >> the party of health care. the president very much wants to move on to that topic and meanwhile, it's not clear when the rest of us in the public will be able to read that mueller report it's not clear what the white house will be able to read it. the president said the mueller report was great it said no obstruction, no collusion according to the president. but the president hasn't read it yet either, not clear that the white house will ever see it necessarily before the public does, presumably, at some point, the doj would have to show a version of it to the white house if it's going to have anything to exert executive privilege over that. back to you. >> thank you the house trying to override president trump's first veto ylan mui is tracking that for us y elan >> reporter: they do not have the votes to override the first veto and his declaration of an emergency at the border wall

will continue. three lawmakers not voting, 14 republicans voted with democrats but that's not enough to get them to the two-thirds majority they need in order to overturn that veto. what remains to be seen is if democrats pursue some sort of legal challenge to the emergency declaration. already, the administration is facing a lawsuit from 20 states including california but at least for now, the legislative effort to end the national emergency declaration is over with the house failing to secure enough support to overturn the veto back to you guys >> ylan, thank you very much the president's veto is upheld in the meantime, coming up, oprah, aniston, aqua man apple scoring major style points for it big announcement. did it stick the lackinding? the maker of oxycontin and

rdpuue pharma over opioids all that and more coming up on "power lunch."

apple making a star studded announcement about new television service but left a lot of questions on the table. julia boorstin joins usnow hi, julia. >> reporter: hey, tyler. that's right

we still don't have some of the key details that will determine whether apple's streaming service called apple tv plus will be a game changer or just a blip on the radar. no idea how much it will cost and compare to netflix's fee and second, apple hasn't announced how many shows it included with the launch with dozens of projects reported, i expect to launch about a dozen shows but unclear how consumers will respond to such a narrow service. what kind of free trial to get them hooked? or the three months it offered free for apple's music another unknown is whether apple will bundle services analysts speculate that apple could drive adoption by bundling new streaming tv service with a channel like hbo or with the likes of apple music to drive adoption but no word on packages from tim cook. i am hearing from some hollywood

sources today that one reason we don't have answers to so many questions is the fact that apple just hasn't decided because it hasn't finished some of the shows so it doesn't know how many is launching the service with in the fall back to you. >> julia, stay with us dig deeper into apple's new tv service. joining us now is tom forte, senior consumer analyst. just reiterated with a $245 price target one of the highest on the street welcome. >> thanks, kelly thanks for having me on. >> does apple tv, we don't have the details yet. could that provide a path to 245 or what would the economics look like >> apple got to wean itself off the dependence off the smartphone, 60% of the sales in the last fiscal year and if you think about their announcements yesterday, content, advertising, payments, this is the path to moving away from that dependence on the iphone. i do think this is the big

opportunity for apple. as it pertains to apple tv plus, i think there are still a lot of questions to be answered and yesterday's event was akin to going to an iphone rollout and leaving without knowing what the price is of the iphone highly unusual. >> a lot of wall street reaction was a little bit of a yawn, tom. you said it's a path to 245? a bridge to nowhere. the iphone and the device market around that, now this is kind of spreading a little bit of money into a lot of different categories would steve jobs, you think, say this is the way to compete in this day and age or are they thinking too hard about how to try to stay relevant >> steve jobs clearly, his strategy was to focus on fewer items in general being very selective about what they were going to pursue. when i think about their content, their proprietary content offering, this shows you the structural challenges of the

times for video content. first, you have to sign the talent and in that regard, incredibly well. oprah winfrey and steven spielberg and then make the product and then market the product. i think they had this date on the calendar for huge announcements and content is not there yet. >> julia, one thing they do seem ready to market and stood out to me is an emphasis on privacy and what they're not going to do with respect to consumer behavior with advertisers. >> we heard tim cook take a couple of subtle digs at facebook didn't mention facebook by name but he did say when he was talking about the apple l news plus product that they would not be tracking what you're reading and ads would not follow you around the web because this is going to be a different kind of product when it came to consumer data and consumer privacy. he also, they referenced privacy

when talking about the apple card, the credit card they're working on in partnership with goldman sachs and mastercard their point here is that apple takes privacy seriously and going to be very careful to protect consumer data, trying to put apple in contrast with what facebook has gone through in the last year or so. >> does apple have a choice? what would it look like if they didn't pursue this whole services aspect and just settled for being the world's, one of the best smartphone makers >> sure. i think apple in that scenario, when you look at the stagnation in growth for mature premium smartphone market, look like a very slow growing firm but wildly profitable, generating a lot of free cash flow. i think it's important, but the points just made on privacy are incredibly important we went to the event thinking pressure on netflix. i think still to come. left the event expecting there to be pressure on facebook and google because clearly not pursuing the same path on advertising and privacy that apple is doing which i think is

playing to their strengths >> thank you both. tom forte and our own julia boorstin shares of chipotle, stock at highest levels in 3.5 years. get ready for this, folks. the "trading nation" team has a lot to taco about. kb home up reporting after the bell can that upswing continue or is there trouble ahd?ea loose roof tiles for housing "power lunch" will be right back they have the investment expertise to unlock opportunities other advisers might not see. learn what a cfa charterholder can do for you, at therightquestion.org

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welcome back to "power lunch. i'm michael santoli at the new york stock exchange. chipotle red hot up nearly 60% this year and sitting at highest levels since 2015 after a hot streak, should investors think twice about getting in right here? frank and erin gibbs are your "trading nation" team today. it's not every day you see a big stock that's up 60% year-to-date, 80% since december and three or four months double over the last year but still below where it was 3.5 years ago. where does it leave you on a

tactical basis on the chart? >> i think it's safe to say the stock is extended right now. we could have said that early as january. breaking up at this point. 40% from the lose and then now 80% from the december lows that stock is performing the head and shoulders pattern i think at that point, at this pace, the stock likely there and 86, second highest level we've seen in entire history going back to 2009 stocks nothing wrong pauses, take advantage of that and weakness >> all right relative strength. basically showing momentum against its own history. erin, i guess you have to squint to find it, be very attractive here but what do you think >> fundamentally, it is also red hot. we look at double digits, profit

growth the next three years. opening, planning to open 150 this year. mobile ordering is helping accelerate revenue growth and profit growth. the but comes much with frank's argument is that it's a little pricey at this point its valuations very extended and any type of head wind, if they don't beat these high expectations and every number and we know from last year, data breach, anything could have the stock plummeting 116, that would make me feel more comfortable but solid expectations, very positive outlook. >> the market is made up with chipotle after tough years thank you very much and for more "trading nation," head to our web site or follow on twitter @tradingnation back to you.

>> good stuff. ahead on "power lunch," a major moment in the legal battle over america's opioid crisis. we'll talk about it. soaring today, higher prices helping big oil stocks looks like it but dig more into it preparing your finances when life takes unexpected detour all this when "power lunch" returns. >> the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> wedge patterns often signal inflection points for stocks a bullish wedge occurs within an uptrend and consists of two converging trend lines slanted downwards. conversely, a bearish wedge occurs in a down trend and consists of two converging lines going up i'm lee bohl and schwab is the better place for traders from the start, the c-class was ahead of its time.

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i'm sue herera here's your cnbc update. charges against actor jussie smollett have been dropped just weeks after he was indicted on 16 felony counts related to making a false report that he was attacked by two men. his attorney said his record has been wiped clean >> i want you to know not for a

moment was it in vain. i've been truthful and consistent on every single level since day one. i would not be my mother's son if i was capable of one drop of what i was accused of. this is one of the worst times of my entire life. >> dramatic footage shows a traffic bridge washed away as a heavy storm hits new zealand's west coast the bridge slowly breaking apart, spilling concrete and asphalt into the river the new york mets signed sy young award winner jacob degrom to a new contract. $37.5 million contract extension. that new deal contains a no trade clause you are up to date that's the news update this hour back to you. >> everybody here is happy degrom signed. he signed a good deal because he gets an out after five and the team an out after five that's the way to do a deal.

>> and nice round figures too. >> sue, thank you. >> you got it. oklahoma attorney general holding a press conference settling a lawsuit against purdue pharma for $270 million over the role in the opioid crisis we will have more on this coming up shortly i'm not sure why we see the oklahoma state university logo there, but that must be the background for where the press conference will be held. >> 90 minutes until the closing bell a check on the markets right now. dow up only about 30 points. well off the highs of the session. up over 200. staying in positive territory just slightly for the dow and the nasdaq also up 12. s&p a quarter of a percent oil closing for the day. a big story today as well. wti crude was back above $65 today and up about a buck to $59.88 brent on the rise. the oil and production parts of the stock market today seeing

gains of about 3%. all in all, a decent session for energy a few days ago, oil was down and we were fretting up more than 30% this year so far. that's helping oil stocks, of course, but especially the two big u.s. players exxon and chevron have some sector nommics >> energy being a key sector in the rally so far in stocks this year energy one of the top two to three best performing sectors in the s&p depending how today pans out. if you look at exxon and chevron, those specifically, because oil having a banner year to start so far, but take a look at exxon and chevron over the course of the last year, volatility, but you can see here on the right-hand side of the chart, the move higher just in the first part of the year means that chevron is on pace for its best start to a year since 2011 and exxonmobil is on pace right now for its best start to a year or best q1 since 1987

big moves. look at the average analyst consensus for these shares exxonmobil, about 4% away from target price on average according to fact set. 37 buy ratings, 55 holds and 8 sells. chevron a different story. we could see 10% implied upside if targets are right from the analysts and 72% have a buy rating or 28% sold, no sells as of right now kelly issue kelly, as we talk about oil majors, exxonmobil and chevron, a couple of places where investors may have been nibbling if they want energy exposure but not some of the volatility around smaller and mid cap exploration and production companies like you mentioned or some of the oil field services name as well, kell back to you. >> thank you, check on other stocks moving today. nvidia started coverage with an overweight at a $200 price

target the firm seeing further growth in the video game industry and just under $175 in trade today next up, mccormick, the spice company beating on first quarter earnings expectations. shares are fractionally higher bed, bath and beyond three activist investors teaming up to replace the company's entire board the activists feel the brand fallen too far behind online competition. those shares hanging on to a huge gain in the session just about a half hour, president trump will meet with members of congress on trade amid a new push to get the usmca, the new nafta passed. kayla tausche has that story. >> reporter: tyler, about two dozen republicans will be here at the white house to learn how the white house plans to sell the deal and air some of their concerns both house and senate republicans told administration officials the tariffs on mexico and canada have to go if they're going to support it. the sales pitch for the deal

will kick into high gear in the next month the white house will officially set the deal that will start the 90 day clock and hearings, a report on the economic impact of the new deal compared to nafta you'll also see an outside marketing blitz get under way by gop operative phil cox call trade works for america and plans to flood lawmakers with calls to buy tv ads in battle ground states and survey voters on the deal. four sample swing districts, for instance, 72% supported the deal once they heard the group's positive messages about it that is up from 47% previously and cox thinks he can replicate that >> what folks respond to in the polling is not the technical aspects of the deal but the fact that this is good for farmers, it's good for auto workers it's good for the folks working in the oil and gas fields in texas and income that's what the american people need to learn about.

and that's what trade works for america is going to do >> all of this quiet consensus building happening behind the scenes so far. in the four months since the deal was signed but expect this to spill out into the public in a big way in the coming weeks, guys >> kayla, thank you very much. we all think about planning for retirement, but what about planning for everything else including the the uunexpected what matters most, tips on how to pparere for when life throws you a serious curveball. -so much of our future is ahead of us.

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call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪ welcome back, everyone what happens when life goes sideways when you experience say, a family trangedy or unexpected event that turns day-to-day existence completely upside down invest in you, ready set grow, if we do in partnership with acorns, the investing app, chanel reynolds. dealt with that harsh reality when her husband was killed in a biking accident. what matters most is her book. welcome.

>> thank you. >> you're living your life it seems good. and a day comes that changes your life forever. what happened? >> well, i got the phone call that many people talk about, actually, it was a long list of voice mails on the phone from numbers i didn't recognize when i was at a summer evening barbecue with my son and i grabbed my phone out of my purse to take a picture of him doing a silly break dance. from then, i knew my late husband was in an accident it was bad i didn't know where he went. from that moment forward to the hospital and the hours and days and weeks afterwards, i realized, everything from not having the password to his phone to call some of his family members to not knowing where half of our documentation was that i wasn't prepared at all. >> how long did you have with him before he passed >> the accident happened on a friday and then the following friday, after all of the tests basically said the same thing, that his injuries were

unrecoverable. we had a week to spend time with him and visit with him, although he never gained consciousness. >> was he in your household, let's put it that way? was your household where one partner takes care of all the financial stuff for the most part and the other is blissfully unaware? >> well, if anyone was blissfully unaware, it might have been him. like many households, we split responsibilities and the 50% of things that i could find or had answers to were very helpful there were a number of things from whether he had bitcoin to what the password was to the photo storage on the cloud to get all the baby photos and wedding photos from very big high consequence financial implications to where are all the baby photos? so the stuff i didn't know, and the things that could have taken

maybe 5 seconds to write down, took me hours or dozens of hours or days or maybe some things were never found >> what happened and what led you to go to that experience to writing this book? and you have a web site as well. >> i had been in the hospital, just a day or two and after getting questions about if our affairs in order and what type of disability insurance if you have, if any, i realized, you know, walking through the halls that people were sleeping in the lobbies and these kind of accidents impact so many of us if it hasn't yet, it might or you work with someone or know someone where life goes sideways and you're not ready at all. so i said to myself, oh my god i don't have amy stuff together and i didn't from that moment forward, yeah >> what are three things families or individuals can do preparatory to this as a protective measure what's number one? >> preparing is important. to even just, what is your

emergency plan same as a fire drill or an earthquake preparedness. have some passwords written down download an ice app on your phone or use the fingerprint. >> what's an ice app >> in case of emergency. some phones have it built-in where you can type in case of emergency, but if the phone isn't around or available, get a list of phone numbers to people. have an emergency key set outside. get a back-up plan >> each partner, if you're living in a household with two individuals, you need to know where the documents are held, right? where is the will, if you have a will, where are the account statements if you have account statements, what are the passwords on those accounts? obviously, money is a big part of this and i suppose one always needs an emergency fund, but these kinds of emergencies can come out of nowhere and you may end up having to travel across the country and stay in a hotel for two weeks.

>> exactly being able to have your life, hit the pause button or someone available to take care of kids or pets or a family member, the legal issues, probate court and having your living will and a power of attorney document, important to have for non-life-threatening situations but if you need to take care of decisions for your parents as they're aging, insurance, insurance is a great way to cover your weak spots. kind of the yin and yang of money and insurance. i found that the legal and the insurance and the money savings, if we had an emergency fund, how well was i prepared for the future on my own they all added up to a few things, or a few categories of things and money was a big impact and a big consequence of all of them. >> very quick aside, my late aunt had done all the document work and the one document, basically a living will, when do i want a treatment withheld,

under what circumstances very specific about it and said, here it is, tyler. you take it. i had it in new jersey and when she needed it, on the floor in her apartment, she didn't have it the emt said, does she have this document right here that doesn't do us any good because we can't see that it is, so you've got to have it right there. thank you so much for your time. we appreciate it and good luck with the book. what matters most, we should note nbcuniversal comcast ventures are investors in acorns, involved in these helpful segments we hold >> kb home is soaring 23% this year we'll talk about what to expect ow lchba inis.ny's earng "perun" ckn two. [leaf blower]

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welcome back i'm aditi roy and we've been monitoring this press conference ongoing between purdue pharma and oklahoma officials we do know major headlines is that purdue pharma has agreed to pay $270 million to settle a suit by the oklahoma attorney general over its participation in the opioid crisis most of this money, $200

million, is going toward a national addiction center. oklahoma state university's serc center for wellness and recovery the founding family behind the company will not be called to testify. in a statement, members of the family say we are pleased to participate in this unique landmark agreement announced today, adding that the family has voluntarily pledged an additional $75 million donation to further advance the life-saving work of the innovative national center we'll monitor the headlines further and get back to you with any highlights. several important reads on the housing market today let's get them from diana olick. >> yeah, home builders pulled back in february which was a surprise given the strong demand for housing. building permits were down as well this is the average rate on the 30-year fixed rose at much of

last year peaking at 5% last november that caused sales of new and existing homes to drop dramatically rates began falling in december and have plummeted to the lowest level in more than a year. part of the reason builders may have pulled back is they did a lot of spec building in the second half of last year, that is building homes without buyers the strategy there is as rates are rising, you want to have something ready for buyers to jump on fast as they fear higher rates, but sales were quite weak in q4. back to you. kb home is lower ahead of earnings after the bell today. the builders are on pace to have their best quarter since 2012. are low rates going to keep fueling housing stocks joining us is an analyst with a buy rating on kb home and a price target of 30 jack, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> what are you watching for tonight? >> the big thing we're looking for is on the order commentary what kind of sales pace we saw in the first quarter their fiscal first quarter which

is december, january and february and more importantly what the outlook is for the remainder of the year. what kind of traffic trends have they seen in the back half of february into march. >> we heard last hour but this has been a theme a lot of people wanting exposure to home builders on the lower end as opposed to the higher end. what does kb offer >> about half of kb's sales are to the first-time home buyer and even more to the first trade-up buyer. so kb is positioned at the right segment of the market. they also lead with a build to order model so you can get a pretty inexpensive house or you can add to that home if you choose to as well so it does allow first-time buyers more options around what they can afford. >> jack, if i invested today after a 24% rally this year, would i be late to the party >> i don't think so. you look at the december lows and the s&p is up about the same as the home builders

historically the builder stocks tend to work between november and april the following year as people anticipate the spring selling season the builders tend to outperform the s&p by 8 to 10 percentage points we're also at a lower valuation starting point so we still think there's a turn or two of multiple, another 10% to the group overall, we think. >> how helpful is falling interest rates >> look, it doesn't hurt we think there's a big demographic story going on in the u.s. but falling interest rates helps. it helps builders push through some pricing, offset labor costs, materials cost, that sort of thing it's a short-term impact the way the stock sold as well it's part of the formula but i think demographics are as much of it as rates. >> how about location, you mentioned that they have markets like denver, phoenix and jacksonville, which have held up pretty well. what is your regional read on

what's happening to the housing market >> so my team and i have been in about 10 or 12 cities this spring so far, visited about 120 communities. what's clear is you're seeing migration to markets like las vegas from california. you're seeing people moving from chicago to denver, from the northeast to jacksonville. and that's not a new phenomenon, but i think it's a continuation of what we continue to see is people moving out of high cost, slow growth states to lower cost high growth states. >> chicago to where? >> denver. >> okay. so california to vegas, chicago to denver and the northeast to jacksonville. >> correct. >> that sounds like a pretty good picture of what's happening across the economy finally, jack, anyone else you mentioned in the space that's well positioned? >> we like lennar too. they're going to report tomorrow in the morning and we like the mortgage insurance space they help first-time buyers buy homes and are not as exposed to the volatility that a home builder is, so we like those four names as well.

>> jack, we'll see how kb does after the bell thank you for joining us. >> thanks. check please is next don't go anywhere.

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friday $23 billion in market cap is what we're talking about the performance of the ipo etf is fantastic lately. it's having its best quarter ever thanks to companies like stone co, roku, garden health, even snap. the company tracks the -- i think it's like a basket of 60 or so recent ipos. in any case, that's quite a tailwind going into lyft and the others which are still to come this year. >> the interesting segment on powers of attorney and what to do in advance of, heaven forbid, something bad happening to you, and woe talked afterwards about the digital power of attorney, which i hadn't heard anything about. >> our guest was saying much like the power of attorney we're familiar with, do the paperwork and make sure someone can sign for you in those kinds of event. you can have a digital power of attorney because it allows the tech companies, if you say i need access -- >> to my husband's or wife's

cloud account, you can get in. and i find also from my own experience that one's own power of attorney may not be sufficient at certain financial service companies that require their very own specifically written ones. >> is that true? >> yes check with your bank and brokerage house to make sure yours complies with their rules. >> thanks for watching "power lunch. it is the final hour of trade. president trump about to hold a key trade meeting with house republicans in just a few moments. we will bring you all the details. carnival shares getting crushed after earnings the ceo joins us. and we're about to get a key reading on housing kb homes reporting after the bell "closing bell" starts right now. good afternoon and welcome to "the closing bell." i'm wilfred fros