tv Power Lunch CNBC March 29, 2019 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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understand something the immunization rate of under 18 is 72% and the infection, 85% under 18 so we're targeting that audience basically, so we are able to effectively slow down this disease >> dr. john torres, thank you both for joining me to explain this issue appreciate it. thank you, that's it for "the exchange" today. "power lunch" starts now >> i'm melissa lee with tyler mathisen president trump's top economic adviser larry kudlow with us here live. he just said he wants the fed to cut rates now by 50 basis points and we'll ask him more about that and out of the gate, lyft, will it limp into the close in a bull market, in like a bear, out like a bull. stocks with best quarter in more than a decade. last trending day of the quarter said to duoogo out on a high no. triple digit rally for the dow right now. "power lunch" starts right now
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>> hi, everybody and welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen let's get to the big stock story this hour and that is and continues to be lyft the shares losing steam with two hours left in the debut day of trading for that company seema mody tracks the action from nasdaq. deirdre bosa in san francisco taking a look at the next battle front between lyft and uber and dominic chu at the new york stock exchange looking at what today means for the next round of ipos and the next catalyst for this incredible bull run seema, kick it off. >> tyler, an active day here at the nasdaq with lyft shares opening for trade at 11:45 a.m. eastern above $87, currently holding on to the $80 handle it is the biggest ipo of the year and sets the tone as a number of silicon valley unicorns prep their offerings. strong volumes, over 60 million shares exchanged hands and it is already with a market cap of $23 billion which makes it larger
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than hershey, discover, and motorola. >> seema, thanks deirdre bosa now in san francisco at the airport for more on lyft's road to becoming a $20 billion company and a look at what's next, deirdre? >> reporter: kelly, we are a long way from the company's first iteration of the time called zim rights back in 25 market cap of $23 billion, larger than some established companies like united continental and american airlines lyft not profitable but cofounders john zimer, logan green this morning telling us they're going after a $1.2 trillion transportation as a service market along with uber, of course. how lyft got there, in large part thanks to the drivers picking up and dropping off passengers behind me we spoke to one that's actually able to participate in today's ipo. >> oh, yeah, very much and i'm happy lyft is giving us
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drivers some priorities to buy the stocks, but i got only 13. that's what i got, offered being offered only 13 to 14 shares >> reporter: now, drivers will continue to play a critical part in lyft and uber's path to profitability and whether they even get there this is what investors will have to be focused ongoing forward, along with a host of risk factors. the question is, will the public markets be as patient as private market investors back over to you. >> big question there, d thanks san francisco airport, deirdre bosa lyft trading up from $72 a share. let's look at what investors need to know about lyft moving forward. joining us now is pierre heirgu. great to have you with us. here's the main question with investors at this moment is lyft a buy at $80
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>> i think with expensive, it's $80, like a $25 million market cap. it's 12 time revenues but three times booking. if you look at lyft slowing down next year, the trades on, you know, five or six times revenues for 2020, so, you know, not to make that price make sense, you have to do two things. first one, some good growth, multiple year or high double digit growth for lyft ahead of us and the second thing, of course, you have to believe like lyft gets to that 20% of the margin target and how do they get there? the road there is very straightforward. if you look at a lyft driver, the contribution margin of his business to lyft is in excess of
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10% of total booking 50% of revenues. each driver, very profitable in order to become profitable, lyft needs to maintain their market share keep growing revenue and lower marketing expenses invest into hiring additional driver and encouraging usage and offering discounts to gain market share against uber. >> they spent 37% of revenues in 2018 on marketing specifically, pierre, and presumably, you know, after the ipo, they could lift the gas off the pedal in terms of that marketing spend but on the driver front, with such competition with uber wanting to keep his drivers, et cetera, can they continue to press the drivers to contribute, quote unquote, as much as they do to the company? or do they have to start paying up that's a major cost for any sort of asset like transportation cost it's a driver cost and a labor cost. >> absolutely. so two things. if you look at it like in the
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near term,couple of years, the key you mentioned, how is the competitive balance stabilizes with uber my big conviction on that market is natural due growing revenues very fast and that makes room for a second player who can be successful with drivers upset with the market leader and who comes up like drivers and riders are happy to have two applications on their phone and then there is no room for anybody else that becomes a duopoly at that point, some players feel the market share split is a right one and then when that happens, you don't have to spend that much money on trying to hire additional drivers. you don't have to spend that much money on discounts to increase the number of rides
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you're doing lyft pushed market share to almost 40% in recent months. is that sustainable and in that case, lyft continues to growth and expand margins will market share actually go down and stabilize at the lower level? today, 50% uber, 40% lift. and that means uber is 50% larger than lyft is that the right competitive balance and is the market going more like a 70/30, or 66% kind of balance that case, lyft has to lose market share when they stop spending but the fact they're going to stop spending in marketing at some point, to me, is a given only two players in the market >> let me ask you a question, pierre and that is, how many drivers drive for both of those services >> so that's a data point i
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don't have from the top of my mind, but it's a significant portion. >> that's my sense is that a lot of them drive for both, which suggests to me that, you know, in a way, uber and lyft are really payment systems >> not really because you don't have full transparency with what the next drive is going to be the best one for you okay, so as a driver, which they prefer and depending on the time of the day, won't have like the lyft and uber, with artificial intelligence, have to rely on the common sense and intuition of the situation and that's how the competitive balance between two is going to come out the guys on the payment system, providers of business.
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they're going to give you access to a ride of opportunity and that's where it makes a significant difference >> pierre, the only thing i want to ask you about, which i've heard a lot of people talk about is this duopoly idea other services that do something more targeted. >> it might be long winded >> three words duopoloy no, that's one word. be a small player. 4% or 5%, you need to find your
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niche. skatable systems and you don't have room for a third one. you have a lot of room for very small niche player, but not a third one. >> pierre, thank you very much for joining us today lyft trading around $81. best start to the year since 1998 dom chu at the nyse with more. >> calmly working our way towards, kelly, as you said, the banner quarter as things stapd right now, got gains in the dow, the s&p 500 and nasdaq those gains were seen so far and on pace for the best quarter since the third quarter of '09
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and if you look at the small cap stocks, more impressive. the russell 2000 on pace for the best start to the year since 1991 to put that in perspective. on a sector basis, the focus is on technology. it's up 19% so far year-to-date for that sector. it's the best performing one in the s&p 500. the worst performing sector is health care. it's only up around 6% and i say up because every sector is higher health care, remember, the best performing sector last year after all that dust settled from the fourth quarter market melees it is the topic du jour. it's the precursor to uber the new york stock exchange debut, one of the big slate of ipos, maybe airksbnb, pinterestt
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name a few but levi's and uber righr but when you have the size of uber coming to market, it's going to be a real tell about whether uber can sustain that kindt levi's and for right now lyft shows back to you. >> thank you very much, dom chu. trade talks in beijing wrap up today. more talks will be held in washington next weekend. we've got also new comments from the president on mexico. kayla tausche joins us now hi, kayla. >> hey, tyler. the white house called talks with china candid and constructive the treasurysecretary called them constructive as well. there was a closing photo op of the two sides that appeared congenial and an interesting dynamic between the two sides. trump's top trade official robert lighthizer shaking hands with vice premier with steven mnuchin stepping up to do the same it might be a small detail to those of us here in the u.s. but per chinese protocol, it conveys
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that those two negotiators, dove and the hawk on, the administration, those watching for the outcome of any potential china trade deal larry kudlow yesterday, it could be weeks or months for this deal to come, and then if the china deal takes months, the deal with mexico and canada. the u.s. mca trying to chart the path with congress going forward. in lake okeechobee in florida where the president was touring infrastructure projects there, he was asking about the infrastructure and the comment that could have trade implications as well >> would you close the border to trade? >> all trade, mexico is making absolutely a fortune with the united states. they have a trade surplus of over $100 billion which is far bigger than anybody understands. they've had it for many years and either they're going to stop, they're the strongest
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immigration laws anywhere in the world and we have the weakest, the most pathetic laws >> immigration and trade have been running on separate tracks. the president likes to conflate some of these issues with trade. but certainly, it will be interesting for mexico to digest that news that the president could close the border even as he's trying to get them to ratify signature trade deal. guys >> thank you, kayla tausche in washington for us. coming up, white house economic adviser larry kudlow saying he wants the fed to cut rates now. he will join us live to explain. there's less than two hours and what has been the best quota for stocks in ten years. can we expect more gains the rest of the year should u llyose in march and go away "power lunch" will be right back see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman?
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that protects what's important. it handles everything, and reaches everywhere. this is beyond wifi, this is xfi. simple. easy. awesome. xfinity, the future of awesome. well, it has been a rally to remember check out these incredible stats as we close out the last trading day of the first quarter it's been the best quarter for the s&p in about ten years up close to 13%. technology having its best quarter since 2012, up about 19% and small caps, the best start to the year since 1991 take money and run or more gains ahead? let's bring in the fast money trader steve graso and then liz
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with bmy melon you seem cautious, liz with the earnings growth and the economy. does that suggest i ought to get cautious with my portfolio >> i think q2 is more challenging than q1. we have earnings growth expectation at negative 3.7% and it one of the sectors expected to post double digit declines. the market will have to digest that and not going to continue at this clip unless we have a positive catalyst come along >> steve, how about you? what do you see? going forward. sort of said the same thing, right? >> i believe liz to be correct here when you're talking about the cliff that we have increase from the december lows, it's a pretty aggressive pace to maintain, tyler. but most people in the same campus liz and i have been where you're looking at eps, going negative you're looking at guidance not being great, so where do we go
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from there in the market has the market digested it enough to move forward maybe, but i'm a little hesitant to say put new money to work where we're at right now. >> how does what you said, liz, translate to what you do with your portfolio in that, are you staying basically fully invested in rotating the defense sectors and pairing back on your equity allocation >> it's a good question, we get it every day what's important, we're not telling people to come out of the market i don't think it's time to dive us but make sure that the portfolio is more effective than maybe it was a year ago. and a lot of investors had that search for yield they're overloaded in high yield bonds and the leverage loan market to have equity like risk and doesn't provide a enough of a balance. we look at taking more duration risk with traditional bonds and do that in sovereigns because now central banks on hold indefinitely and making sure that you have some of that offsetting piece >> steve, what does lyft tell you about the appetite the risk appetite in this market
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and what that might mean for megacap tech >> i mean, it's a tremendous appetite for growth. and less likely to take the deal to get the allocation and immediately dump it on the first day of trading and dump it in the first couple of days they want the ooubers. >> in order to get the next allocation. >> exactly they're forced to hold on to it but look at some of these companies and they don't have profits, and then tell you about the appetite, where are they reaching for growth and i'm not sure that's a great healthy sign for the overall market >> steve, have a great weekend liz young, thank you as well
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>> it's report card time for the big airlines up next, tell you who's on time and who's been late and who has the most customer complaints plus, we continue to watch shares of lyft, priced at $72 a share open above 87 and right now, back above 82 a big interview coming up, white house economic adviser larry kudlow says he wants the fed to cut rates now. he joins us live "power lunch" will be right back ♪ so, recently my son's band was signed by a record label. a record deal? unbelievable. whenever we're about to get on a stage for a huge audience, i always give my dad, like, a facetime kinda moment. you see the crowd, you see the emotion. you know, he has that experience for the first time with me, and that's really important to me. i created a rockstar. (both laughing) (announcer) the best network is even better when you share it. buy the latest iphone for you,
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which airlines on time which late and which lost passengers bags? d.o.t. with the march report card philip lebeau with who made the grade. phil >> what we look at is the january data a bit of a lag effect here, melissa but when you look at the on-time ratings in january, what we're looking at is an industry that generally, it's up in that 78, 79% and the industry leader seems to be every month. partially because of the weather they encounter hawaii, number one spirit, again, tip your hat to them they've improved their performance dramatically over the last year and year and a half and delta over 82%. who were the least on time in january? the bottom three, alee jalegian, united and jetblue we enter into this period of airline preannouncements
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guidance in terms of the first quarter in what they're expecting and so far, the focus is going to be on whether or not things are softening up a bit in the first quarter. two airlines that will get a lot of attention in particular over the next couple of weeks, southwest and american i say that they're going to get attention because remember, along with the 737 max airplanes that have been grounded we'll be watching to see how much of an impact thf hurting t not really hurting but limiting the revenue potential that they were expecting for the first quarter. so that is what the airlines did in january and also what we're focused on over the next couple of weeks, guys. >> thank you very much philip lebeau. to the bond market now rick santelli tracking the action i won't call it quiet at the cme. >> it's not quiet. we continue to do the same thing as yesterday the foundation to potentially build higher rates on. look at a two day of 10s we come off the best levels. on the week, we're now down 4
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basis points on 10s, although on change for the day year-to-date on 10s. look at this once we broke down on the spike on the right-hand side of the screen, january 3rd, wow, sail lower. what we need to do to get above in the bigger picture to really look like there's an upside to rates, that would be on a closing basis. look at the hyg, loftiest since september of last year why important? when rates go down, calm or nervous and that reflects much more calmness, finally one week at the dollar index. dollar index having a great week it is up on the week, up on the day, and holding to 97 handle. back to you. >> all right that's it. good joining mr. kudlow here the sponsorship from pimco there it is, larry kudlow. the director of the national economic council and why he wants the fed to cut rates right now. mr. kudlow in the house. it's great to have you here, larry.
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>> thank you, tyler. >> we'll be right back i consulted with your grandmother's doctor. we can do the screening at her house. hi. this is the man that's going to check your eyes grandma. cognizant ai solutions are helping healthcare companies advance diagnostics and prevent blindness in patients with diabetes. everything looks good. you have beautiful eyes. ♪ yeah, i thought doing some hibachi grilling would help take my mind off it all. maybe you could relieve some stress by calling geico for help with our homeowners insurance.
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this hour. linda mcmahon planning to announce she's stepping down as the head of the small business administration this to rejoin the private sector president trump will hold an event with her at mar-a-lago at 4:00 p.m. today. a fuel order in the cabin of a plane forced a united airlines flight from baltimore to san francisco to make an unscheduled landing at dulles airport in west virginia. several people taken to the hospital no word yet on what caused that odor new york lawmakers will vote sunday on the deal to ban single use plastic bags statewide the ban would take effect march 1st of 2020. it would apply to any store at new york, and if passed, the second state after california to do so. for more than 30 years, orange plastic phones bearing the image of the popular comic strip character garfield have been washing up on beach in western france well, the mystery has now been solved a french environmental group said they come from a shipping
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container lost at sea off of a cargo ship so phones are. that is the news update. melissa, back to you. >> i was wondering why i never got mine, sue. now the mystery issue. sue herera got about 90 minutes left before we wrap up the final trading day of the first quarter and on track for the best first quarter in about ten years got the dow up 161 points or 0.6% and s&p up by 14 and nasdaq higher by 52 ty >> other stocks making big moves today. rh, formerly known as restoration hardware cutting earnings target blaming negative trends at the beginning of the year in the high end housing market it says though negative trends caused by late december stock market decline car max on the other hand rising on better than expected earnings the average selling price for a used car rose to just under 20 grand and galapagos on pace for
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the best day in seven years. positive results for its rheumatoid arthritis it partners with gilead on that medicine and the stock higher you see here the oil market closing for the day. let's go to eric chemi at the cnbc commodity desk. >> that's right. oil prices rising again today. you see a lot of green behind me poised to pose a fourth straight week of gains. on track since early 2009. close to 25% signs of opec led supply cuts with u.s. sanctions against iran and venezuela help crude prices and energy stocks with the final months of last year. the energy sector as a whole has been the third best performing group since the start of this year said to post the best quarter in more than eight years. back to you guys >> eric, thanks. white house economic adviser larry kudlow saying just in the last hour that he wants the fed
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to immediately cut interest rates and cut them by 50 basis points or half a percentage point. l of this week's development on trade and so much more is trump's national economic adviser kudlow you couldn't have waited an hour and come out and told us >> somebody stole it from us pretape that's not going to play for a while, but you know the game as well as i. >> that is exciquite a statemen. first of all, when did you change or decide that a 50 basis point rate cut is appropriate here >> i am echoing the president's view he's not been bashful about that view he would also like the fed to cease shrinking its balance sheet and i concur with that view looking at some, the economy looks fundamentally quite healthy. we just don't want that threat there is no inflation out there, so i think the fed's actions were probably overdone let me make a point here
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this is our view this is his view, this is my view federal reserve, independent central bank they'll do what they're going to do, but somebody asked me and i responded to it. >> what has changed on the ground then that warrants, you said the economy is fundamentally healthy. this would be a pretty big move. interest rates aren't that high to begin with. only at 2.25, 2.5% just raised four times last year are you saying the fed made a huge policy mistake last year or did something dramatically change where it's almost an emergency we cut rates by that much >> there's no emergency. it's just a point of view, okay. i mean, i watch yield curves i have for a long time, bills are actually negative slightly inverted commodity prices, commodity index took a big whack in the fourth quarter and earlier this year this is not an emergency this is not anything, this is just our point of view frankly, i think they went too
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far. but the fed sis independent they'll do what they're going to do it's just that, look, globally, there's a lot of weakness out there. euro zone, virtually in a recession. china, very, very soft as we negotiate our trade. troubles in latin america. we don't want to threaten this great recovery basically, the president has, in effect, redesigned and redeveloped and reengineered this economy with lower tax rates, and a bill rollback in regulations, and opening the door to energy again and also, trade deals that i think will be very pro-growth. we don't want to jeopardize that we've got more people working than ever. we've got remarkably low unemployment across the board, including kelly, i might say, the biggest contributor to the labor force last year was women. and all the minor categories this is a terrific story blue collar workers. we haven't seen this kind of
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thing since the late 1980s wages are rising we want to keep it that way and in the absence of inflation, with some of these global threats, our view is at some point, i don't know about immediately, that may be a misquote but at some point, i wouldn't mind seeing the fed drop their target rate. >> let me, you and i have known each other long enough with the occasional politic question. if you and the president and nominee to the fed mr. moore think that interest rates ought to be a half rate lower, it sounds like you're saying you want that protectively, not because you see the economy in a current stall. >> i think that's very fair. in fact, i think that's exactly right. protective measure >> it's protective, not because you're worried the economy is slowing. is the economy slowing >> i don't think it is undert the underlying economy. >> what does that mean,
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underlying >> c plus i. that's the fundamental economy it looks very good even for example, in the fourth quarter, a small arkdown all kinds of glitches here with the winter season and government shutdown, but business capital spending very solid. consumer spending was solid. here's one point i think a lot of people are surprised not only how low inflation, but in fact, that inflation has been coming down in the last year and you see it in the, you know, the fed's measure of the pcd, and i think that's a surprise and therefore, the increases in rates and, by the way, i'm not, i'm not here to jump at the fed or criticize the fed this is just our view. >> there will be cynics out there who say, what they're doing protectively if the economy does fall, setting up a blame a fed scenario
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>> i'm worried about protecting the best economic growth in several decades. i really, as president trump rebuilds the economy, we don't want to endanger that. and we are, as everyone else in the world, aware of some of these external threats from around the world everybody's coming to the usa. direct investment, portfolio investment the hottest game in town we don't want to jeopardize that >> let me ask you in a different way then, larry. if we do not get a 50 point basis point at some time, do you believe global economic weakness will in fact cause a slowdown here in the united states? >> i don't think that the rest of the world can overwhelm the u.s. in fact, usually, my view is, continues to be, we are the driver, we are the engine. okay we're doing well that's going to help the rest of the world, right but i will say, no question, when you look at europe, particularly, big trading partners and canada, and parts
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of latin america, and asia and china, we are, you know, wary of that we're concerned about that so i see this more as actions to protect the great economic reemergence that we've had we haven't had job numbers, employment numbers, wage numbers. here's another one coming out of the woodwork is what i'm calling it. you've got, if i get these numbers right, 7.3 million job 6.5 million people to the bls employed how do you move that people from unemployment, discouragement back into the labor force. it's quite remarkable. seldom seen. most of the experts miss that. i don't want to jeopardize that. and they're coming back as wages are rising, which is important, and also, our administration, i want to give my colleague ivanka
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trump some credit here, we emphasize reskilling and retraining workers not by the government but private businesses because they need the help, so i don't want tight money to interfere with that >> you say the fundamental economy is not slowing right now, not what you see. a lot of others see it slowing a little bit i'm sure you know that you've said in a sort of full throated way, you see this as a 3% year. you still? >> yes >> we won't get it in q1 because we never get the seasonal adjustments right. the shutdown i wish the commerce department would get the seasonal adjustments right, otherwise i might have to turn them all into condominiums it's beautiful as you know but sure, every year for the last seven or eight years, but we get into the spring quarter i think, yes, we will resume the growth >> if you're not worried about slowing growth, then you're not worried by extension that that
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slowing growth is going to turn into a situation where the tax cuts that you helped architect are not going to be able to pay for themselves over time in other words, if the economy, that thought, that it's going to pay for itself, is predicated on the idea they're going to spur growth and the economy is going to grow at 3% or above. >> i know you never heard me say this before but growth solves a lot of problems. growth solves employment problems growth solves corporate/business problems growth solves budget deficit and debt problems. growth is absolutely essential if you listen to the president talk, he says this all the time. growth, growth, growth i'm delighted he has that. >> we had good growth last year but tax revenues inbound did not grow reflect. >> actually, overall, i think overall. >> you'd expect them to grow. >> tax revenues, i believe they were positive. i may be wrong about that.
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>> 0.4% or something like that >> they fell because of the corporate tax, immediate impact but we'll see those picking up alcs a consequence of the better growth you have to take a cash hit initially, but the incentive effect is growing the economy. this is a supply side driven economy. this is not aggregate demand or one time tax rebates people say it's a sugar high and that's it. nonsense we lower marginal tax rate the other is both large and small companies. now, that process reincentivized the economy is going to go on for many years remember, think of it this way the big companies, take a while to turn around their long-term invest lt plans. we had a good start in 2018.
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a lot of people anticipated it in late 2017 i don't think that process is finished. >> the expense provisions don't disappear. >> that's correct. corporate tax rate doesn't disappear and we're also seeing a phenomenal increase in repate rated overseas revenues and profits. that's one of the -- >> not $4 trillion >> hang on a second. i was looking at some of those numbers. >> it's a lot. >> cash basis, i think the joint tax committee estimated year one, we might get $100 billion or so. $750 billion and still rolling so that's another sleeper factor all's i'm saying is we want open that throttle. there's no inflation going on here >> let me just close the loop, larry. on the fed >> one last point, i just, this is coming from the supply side all right. more people working at higher wages with higher productivity one of the benefits here, one of
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the knock-on benefits is productivity close to 2% more people working, more efficiently at higher wages is a terrific thing >> let me close the loop >> the federal reserve should not tighten. >> so how unhappy is the president with chair powell at this rate? >> he's had his views on chair powell they've had dinner together. i couldn't make the dinner he's our chairman. we're not going to displace him. i don't want to get into any of the personality. >> is he unhappy with the treasury secretary as a result of this? >> steve mnuchin has been a terrific treasury secretary. one of the president's closest advisers and friends, so the answer to that, i believe, no. >> larry, i want to ask you about that 50 basis point cut again because the market, as you mentioned yourself, still if i
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can fixated. >> immediately, this and that, i'm not here to talk, that's the fed's job. >> the 10 year will hold on to the yield and move at the short end? >> i think so and i might be wrong on this, okay, but globally, bond rates are so low. big countries like germany, what are they, zero, negative bond rates and i think that's had a big impact on our market so again, there's no panic here. there's no emergency, but when you have seen an inversion, that's an old model. you have to start worrying about a downturn we're not there yet. we're not a year ahead but it's something you have to watch. i believe in watching market price indicators, and that's one of them. and again, the big surprise, i guess to many people, not so much myself, but the supply side tax cut and the supply side economy. you're producing more
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investment, more capital formation, more goods and more jobs that is not inflationary so therefore, you have to kind of recalibrate your thinking about interest rates but it is up to the fed. i am not here to criticize the fed. i'm just saying this is our point of view. >> all right larry, going to stay with us glad you're here but up next, we're going to be talking trade with larry kudlow right here on set. "power lunch" back in two. -so much of our future is ahead of us.
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u.s. china trade talks wrapped up in beijing and in dc. steve mnuchin tweeting today that negotiations were constructive but former white house strategist steve bannon on squawk box this morning saying don't expect a deal anytime soon. >> i think we're aways away from that if you look at the back and forth on this, i think the chinese are digging in and i think some of the hawks in china are starting to dig in and say, hey, it would be nice if we had a deal but a no deal is better for us than a bad deal i think we've got a long way to go before a trade deal. >> back with us is larry kudlow, national economic counsel director you've been deeply involved in the trade talks with china
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you were very optimistic a couple of weeks ago. are you as optimistic today? >> look, we are still making great headway including these talks. those two, mnuchin and lighthizer are just on the airplane coming home but the last message we got is they made more headway they've been making been making through teleconferencing and whatnot. this is the kind of thing you have to take a day at a time, a week at a time the chinese team will be here next week. we'll continue those discussions. >> there are some market participants who wonder if the reason why you're calling for a half percentage point rate cut is because the administration needs more time on the china deal would you be calling for that if you thought, hey, this thing is happening and it's imminent or because we're hearing now june or later until it happens? >> no linkage, frankly no linkage the timetable thing is a bad exit off the highway any way what we want is a really great
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deal for the united states that's been the president's view from day one we've made terrific headway. this is the largest scale deepest discussion of trade between the two countries ever and if an agreement is there, it will be an historic agreement. that will be pro growth for both countries and the rest of the world. but it has to be done right. that includes, you know, bob lighthizer is a brilliant trade guy. the enforcement issues have to be done properly the ip theft forced transfer of technology. cyberhacking, commodities, tariffs. it's got to be right for the usa. and whatever the timetable is -- i think frankly if you look at it, little patience is not a bad thing. it's been less than a year in this round, and we went there, they're coming here. that's a good sign
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these are all very positive signs. it's not related to the interest rate discussion, at least in my mind >> do tariffs come off if a deal is reached how should we look at tariffs in terms of being a punitive measure perhaps if enforcement is not on the deal >> those issues will be part of the enforcement mechanism. as bob lighthizer has testified, there's a multi tiered mechanism, complaints dealt with on the ground, at a deputy's level, and then at a principal's level. the pic trick here is if the un states is not satisfied, we will use tariffs. tariffs are very important in these negotiations on the other hand, if you have a complaint, let's fix the complaint on the chinese side. regarding tariffs themselves in general, i don't want to go through that there will be discussions and
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decisions made the president has said publicly -- i think that's the key point, we are not going to withdraw our tariffs we are not would some be withdrawn? i don't want to get into that. these things are done as a matter of negotiations >> could we see at some point, let's say after the deal is done, a point where the tariffs would be higher at that point than they are currently? in other words, if they don't -- >> in a deal -- in a deal we sign >> exactly if they don't stick to it, enforcement mechanism is such that tariffs will be higher than what they are now. >> if they don't stick to it, there will be significant risks there. if they do stick to it, those risks will be e-maameliorated. >> what have you learned in the past year, not just generally, but about tariffs and their utility? >> well, i will tell you, as a free trader, confirmed free trader, i think the president has taught me and a lot of other people that tariffs have an important use in trade
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negotiations you can get through the intransigence -- if your goal is free, fair, reciprocal trade, if you believe, as he does, that in a pure world we should have zero tariffs and nontariff barriers and subsidies, you have to get there. a lot of the world trading system is broken down. the wgo has not done its job we believe again china has been, you know, in noncompliance in many different areas others believe that, too europe and japan joins us. so tariffs play a role and i think i've learned that. and i watched t. and particularly in the chinese negotiations that's probably the best example, all right the president was tough on china with tariffs we hurt china economically, they're already on the downslope. here we are deep into negotiations that may turn out very well. that's one of the things i've
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learned. because you -- >> i know where you're going >> you were an unrepentant free trader >> i'm involved in it hands on, real world i'm not the purist i once was. the president is a good negotiator >> the mexican canada agreement is at risk of stalling in congress because of grassley who wants to lift steel and aluminum tariffs on those two countries, and says trump will have to give in on those two things to get this passed. >> bob lighthizer is heavy into that let me say one thing, the usmca deal is an important deal. it sort of gets overshadowed by the china thing. if you go into that deal, in terms of domestic content and wages, if you look at that deal in terms of the new economy,
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breakthroughs, ip protections we've never had, financial services inroads, buy log biolo inroads, dairy stuff for the farmers, it's a pro growth deal. this is as lighthizer says, it is a template for a lot of deals. to your point, kelly, he is negotiating with and quotas the outce determined he's aware of the issues, he's aware of the pressures we would like to do that deal. again, like any other deal, it's got to be right. usmca is an important thing. we ask for help from everybody to get that thing passed it would be good for growth. terrific thing >> larry, pleasure good to see you again. >> thank you, folks. nice to visit with you we're at session highs
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i wonder if there's a connection there. you brought us good luck take it. >> all right >> we'll be back after this. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. for just $39.00 ?
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in about ten years >> what a happy quarter it's been, who would have thunk after the fourth quarter we had. >> they just got the timing right. if it was christmas eve at the bottoms, january 1st almost gets you all the way back up. >> 50 basis cut says larry kudlow, markets got to love that >> thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. >> it's the final hour of trade, larry kudlow making big news on cnbc calling for the fed to cut rates by 50 basis points is that the right move lyft getting a pop on its first day as a public company. we'll see whether it can hold its gains into the close casper could be the next ipo. its ceo will join us exclusively.
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