it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc, the new quarter starting like the last one ended with a rally in stocks futures are soaring. is it time to take a profit or go all in on equities? we're going to dig in. thank you, china, strong manufacturing data there the reason for the rally, asian stocks surging this morning as well so is this a turning point for the world's second biggest economy? president trump stepping up his attacks on the federal reserve over the weekend we have the full fallout. and a bizarre story, saudi arabia accused of hacking jeff bezos's phone. it may be april fools' day but this story is no joke. elon musk just dropping a new

rap song about a dead gorilla. it is monday, april 1st, and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ >> good morning, good afternoon, or good evening from wherever in the world that you may be watching welcome, i am brian sullivan thanks for joining us on a very busy monday and happy april 1st. stocks in rally mode green on the screen everywhere dow futures indicates a jump of 200 points at the open the s&p and the nasdaq higher as well this coming off the best first quarter in a decade. we've got more staggering stats coming your way soon asia is the focus of the news this morning following some strong manufacturing data out of china. manufacturing activity expanding at its fastest pace in eight months in march. that sent china and japan higher

the shanghai comp up 2 1/2 percent. the only thing down are u.s. treasury bonds yields are backing up a bit but still at a very low 2.44%. we'll talk more about bonds and the fed coming up. hey, look at the u.s. green back it got lost in all the stock talk, but the dollar index, versus a basket of other world currencies may by down now but it's on pace of -- a strong dollar has been a big theme over the lasti year as well. if you were not paying attention to how strong the first quarter really was, don't worry we've got you covered. look at these gains since the beginning of 2019, the dow up 11%, s&p up 13, and the nasdaq up 16% unless futures turn around, we are going to add to those gains today. inside the markets, every single sector is higher this year among the best of the best,

well, technology takes the top spot up 19%, real estate up 17%, and the industrial group up 17% as well. don't lose sight of energy energy stocks and oil have been on fire as well. crude oil on pace for its best start to a year since 2002 crude oil up 33.5% just this year, so what to make of this run and more importantly, what is in store for the second quarter? let us bring in david nelson, chief strategist at bell point asset management to what do you attribute -- all this talk about a global slowdown, to what do you attribute these amazing gains in the first quarter and a strong start to the second quarter this morning? >> i think you have to point to the federal reserve, certainly the complete reversal that we saw, you know from jay powell and company at the start of the year, and the rollback just in rhetoric but also in policy as well enormous gains from the fed, i

think, this year, and it points to the fact this was likely a policy mistake we saw late last year. >> what's the mistake? >> i think pushing rates when inflation was as tame as it was, slowing global growth. why do that? it basically turned what was a pro-growth agenda into a liability create ago deficit i don't think that's what the administration wanted. i don't even think it's what the fed wanted i think they understand that this is a battleship normally they don't move this fast it's stunning how quickly this reversal took place. >> is it the right move? the president obviously wants a rate cut larry kudlow wants a rate cut. likely steven moore wants a rate cut. >> i think you can point to the politics of this i think jay is smarter than this i think this is about data the data was slowing we don't live in a vacuum. 40% of s&p 500 revenue is offshore nearly every sector had negative revisions and the three most exposed to global growth and the

three most exposed to offshore revenue, energy, technology, materials had the biggest cuts. >> is any of that move in the first quarter and the strong futures this morning, does any of it have anything to do with the idea that it looks like we may get a resolution to this china trade fight? >> i think it's part of that, you know, and i would put some of the positive pmi data coming out of china in context. massive stimulus in their banking sector they've been instructed to loan out money at a record pace i think that points to what steven mnuchin has said that talks have gone well in beijing. it probably weighs it's probably part of the rhetoric at this point it's pretty clear that the math does not work for china. they have to make this deal. they need this deal more than we do >> is china stimulus enough to continue to power their market, enough to continue to help power our market >> i think it's a positive, but i think in the end you're going to have to have a deal if their market's going to continue it's not going to change the rhetoric it's not going to change the dynamic between us and china

they're simply an adversary, in almost every sense. >> six to nine months ago, a year ago the macro discussion was this trade fight with china, they're going to dump treasuries rates are going to spike hurting the u.s. economy the exact opposite has happened. >> i was looking at the numbers coming in today, almost every asset class on the planet was up in the first quarter the only thing that was down the was the euro the only asset class that beat the united states was really oil. >> cruel opioil >> up 33.5% this year. >> that sort of points that maybe what's going on around the world isn't as bad as we think. >> where are you going to put your money, you know, with rate where is they are today, there's just not a lot of places you can put your capital at this point. >> there's a tina trade, there is no al tentative

it's still on? >> i think it still plays. in the end it's like discounted cash flow. where are you going to put your money? the multiple has to go higher with rates this low. it's as simple as that. >> is cash a terrible place to be is there any risk out there at all? >> you saw a lot of money going into bonds, corporate bonds back in september, but rates were pushing much higher back then. everybody started to derisk. where rates are right now, i think the biggest risk for me is largely overseas, the kind of thing you see in emerging markets principally in a place like turkey. >> david nelson, first guest on the new quarter. what a day to be here. come back more often good morning, thank you. >> thanks for having me. despite the market rally, the president who perhaps looks at the stock market closer than any other president in modern history. trump tweeting quote, had the fed not mistakenly raised rates, especially since there is very little inflation and having not done the ridiculous -- the stock

market would have been both much higher and world markets would be in a better place end quote the president's comments come just hours after white house economic adviser larry kudlow telling cnbc that the fed should cut rates by 50 basis points >> i am echoing the president's view he's not been bashful about that view he would also like the fed to cease shrinking its balance sheet, and i concur with that view looking at some of the -- i mean, the economy looks fundamentally quite healthy. we just don't want that threat there is no inflation out there, so i think the fed's actions were probably overdone >> now we're going to have much more in this brewing battle between the white house and the fed coming up a bit later on this hour. new this morning, a bizarre story from the middle east saudi arabia accused of hacking the phone of the world's richest man. frank holland is joining us with

more on this story. >> this is certainly a talker, jeff bezos's security chief is claiming saudi arabia is behind the leak of text messages. the amazon ceo sent to his mistress lauren sanchez. gavin becker was investigating how those messages ended up in the hands of the national inquire "enquirer. the saudis were intent on hurting bezos who also owns "the washington post. it's unclear where the publisher of the "enquirer" is aware of those details. he points to a -- the saudi have previously denied having anything to do with the coverage of bezos in the tabloid. he quickly identified michael sanchez as a paid source for the story, but he is suggesting the initial information came from what he's calling other channels in a statement to cnbc, ami maintains that michael sanchez was the lone source who tipped

off the "enquirer" to the affair last year and there was no involvement by any other party he says he has turned over his findings to federal officials. >> certainly is a talker frank holland, thank you very much. new from big technology over the weekend, facebook founder mark zuckerberg calling for more internet regulation. zuck writing in an op-ed in "the washington post" over the weekend saying governments and regulators should play a more active role in overseeing online content. he highlights four areas, in particular harmful content, election integrity, privacy, data portability zuckerberg's comments come as facebook faces increased scrutiny over its data sharing deals. facebook stock up about 1% right now. we are just getting started on a very busy monday here on "worldwide exchange. up next, two big developing stories overseas, high stakes elections in ukraine and turkey. our team of reporters are standing by in both nations with the big money impact. and later, a major commuter

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welcome back and good morning. it's 5:13 on the east coast. if you are just joining us, it could be a banner day if you equities dow futures are soaring on the back of strong chinese

manufacturing data the dow up 188 points. s&p and nasdaq continuing their run out of the first quarter as well like we said, you can call it the pmi, basically it is a manufacturing number it came out of china, and it was much stronger than expected. as you just heard our guest talk about, they are stimulating their economy. it appears at least from that one data point, it does appear to be working and the chinese market jumping 2.5% further cementing its position as the top performing domesticated stock market in the entire world. we're seeing the european market follow our futures and asia as well a lot of green on the screen across the european market as well and again, we are following two high stakes elections overseas both have the power to move markets. voters in both turkey and ukraine heading to the polls our team of reporters are fanned out across the globe had hadley gamble is standing by in istanbul and steve cedric is

live live. >> reporter: basically you have the russian invasion as the backdrop to the last presidential elections back in 2014 the invasion and then the annexation of crimea plus you've got a frozen complex in the southeast of this country. whoever's the president has to be strong on russia issue and previously poroshenko he basically has built up the army again and promised close links with nato. the man who looks like he could be the next president, i kid you not, no april fools is a guy called volodymyr zelensky. he's never been in politics. he's on tv as well when he looked like he was doing really well in the polls, when you're president, how are you going to deal with putin >> we have means process, and we'll do diplomatic meetings during the process

what we have now is a diplomatic week we don't want more we want to stop the war in donbass. >> reporter: as well as the annexation, which ukraine calls the illegal annexation of crimea, you have a frozen -- this is the foreign ministry i've been talking to the foreign minister he said we can't allow the southeast of our country and what's going on in crimea to be a trojan horse for more russian issues here. ukraine is very much a testing point for the west's involvement, how the west wants to respond to a lot of the russian aggression another major issue is corruptio corruption >> you stole my question, i was going to ask you what is the time line here is april 23rd the date to mark

on our viewers' cal cendarcalens >> where it's petro poroshenko who ran basically on the army, the faith, and language, they've broken from the russian orthodox that was a really big deal i basically made ukrainian a big language again they've built up the army which was gutted it's been built up with u.s. and canadian advice on how to rebuild the army they feel they're a lot stronger to face down the russians. can they reclaim those territories? almost certainly not, the russian ordinance is absolutely enormous i spoke to zelensky and you're not getting answers on a whole host of policies on what he's going to do about the economy and how he's going to face down putin. these are massive issues considering this man could be the president in charge of the foreign army litterally by apri

23rd. >> just to give one more bit of context it was about a mile up the road from here, i was talking to john mccain here in 2014 as well he came as well to basically stand with the ukrainian people. a lot o's happened in that perid >> a truly remarkable story, steve sedgwick thank you very much. let's turn to turkey the turkish president appears to have been dealt a major blow in local election hadley gamble with more on this store. >> reporter: the winds of change seem to be sweeping the major metropolitans of turkey, we have ankara, and now it looks likely istanbul as well going to the country's mainly opposition party. president erdogan weighed in yesterday. let's listen in. >> every victory and every loss is the will of our nation, and we have to accept this fact as a

necessity of democracy we will admit that we won people's hearts in cities. we were not successful enough in cities we lost and we will act acco accordingly. we will be focusing on the economy, politics, and investment in turkey and take our steps accordingly. >> reporter: and just to break it down for you, what this actually means for presidentered wa -- erdogan, these major metropolitan areas make up 40 to 45% of the electorate ask he's lost out majorly, not just this ankara but also here in istanbul as well. we're four years away from another election here, but at the same time this is all about economic reforms it's something that he's continued to promise again and again. you have to remember that he's put his son-in-law in charge of both the finance and the economy portfolios there are so many questions about what's going to happen next here. we've had major pressure on the lira major pressure on the stock exchange as well

a lot of questions about the independence of the central bank there's still major unemployment, rising unemployment and the question about current account deficits and whether people are even able to save at this point. lots of pressures on the economic front you've seen that weighing on this electorate. we heard president erdogan over the last 24 hours say something quite interesting. maybe we lost out on the heart of the cities. we are still winning the suburbs. this is a man who has major support but at the same time he is having problems in these cities this is a major reflection of what's happening with the economy. >> what does this mean for u.s./turkish political relationships going forward in. >> reporter: what we've seen over the last year or so is a real volatility when it comes to istanbul's relationship with washington we've seen a lot of bupushback from this government we saw rumson sent back from

istanbul to washington at the same time there are questions about defense, the nato relationship as well, the fact that they bought this s 400 missile defense system from russia lots of questions about whether or not president trump is going to continue to be able to work with president erdogan, two people who seemingly when they have conversations seem to have a great rapport, according to both sides, but then they go away back to their respective capitals and have problems a lot of questions about that relationship between the united states and turkey but also frankly about whether or not president erdogan given the results of this election is going to have the political capital over the next four years to push these economic reforms because they are going to be painful. >> there's a big air base with hundreds of u.s. servicemen and women in turkey as well. there is a lot at stake. also new this morning, the world's biggest oil company launching a road show as it prepares to tap credit markets for the first time ever. saudi aramco has hired bankers to manage its $10 billion bond

sale we are getting our first look into aramco's financials after fitch gave an a plus credit rating they generated earnings before taxes of $224 billion last year. that surpasses exxon mobil joining us now on the cnbc line, a former saudi aramco executive. he is the founder and president of hue say knee energy thank you very much for joining us here on cnbc. with earnings of that size, why does aramco need to tap the credit markets should they issue a bond >> good morning, brian, aramco is obviously responding to the directives of the saudi government, and the saudi government has a very long-term strategic restructuring program for the economy, and this involves a lot more than aramco. it involves the public

investment fund growing by $200 billi $200 billion over the next ten years, the saudi industrial development fund, the logistics program promoting 65 major private sector developments so forth, so yes, it's a lot of cash, but it's going to be put to good use and growing the domestic economy of saudi arabia and also diversifying the economy away from being entirely dependent on oil and gas >> you know a big global, i guess, debate over the true value of aramco should it ever go public with that long awaited ipo, 224 billion in pretax earnings do you think that should solidify aramco's argument that it should have a public valuation of more than a trillion dollars should it go public >> i have no doubt about that.

in the long-term aramco and the kingdom will be in the oil business for a long time all the studies have been conducted by the international energy administration and the u.s. and others show us that the oil demand is going to be there systematically for many years to come so that cash flow will be there, and yes, anybody who's invested in aramco will drive benefits from that very affluent and important industry >> is $60 oil here and $68 overseas a fair price, or do you think it should be valued higher or lower >> no, i think it's very fair. in fact, the concerns many oil people have both in the u.s. and abroad is that for many operators, aramco and saudi arabia, for many of the other operators that is not enough to guarantee long-term investments. if they don't do the proper preinvesting today, you'll see shortages in supply within a

couple of years. so it's a fair price, but you also need a stable price, and this is what opec is trying very hard to do is to maintain stability in the long-term outlook. >> crude oil up 33% this year so far. it was a real pleasure to have you on cnbc. thank you, sir. a big story surrounding california utility giant pg&e. what a federal judge just did that should be a wake-up call for all ceos. plus, time for today's mystery chart. can you name this stock? not only surging lately but get this now at its highest level in more than 100 years. grab a coffee. get the treadmill going, and take your guesses. we're back after this.

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out like a lion in like a lion the second quarter kicking off with a bang. stocks in rally mode, china sows b shows big signs of a turn around president trump stepping up his attacks on the federal reserve. he wants a rate cut, and he wants it now. and this stock at its highest level since ben swjamin harrison was president can you name it? can you name him we'll show you the stock coming up ♪ welcome back and good morning, 5:31 here on the east coast. thanks for being with us here on "worldwide exchange. i'm brian sullivan everything you need to know in about 50 seconds >> here's what's leading cnbc.com right now, china

rallying manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in march at its fastest pace in eight months that's according to private pmi survey asia is in the green across the screen this morning. now to that drama involving the "national enquirer." jeff bezos's security chief is claiming saudi arabia is behind at leak of text messages the amazon ceo sent to his mistress lauren sanchez bezos security chief says the saudis were intent on damaging bezos in response to the washington post coverage of the murder of its journalist jamal khashoggi. saudi arabia denies any involvement. kellogg a nearing a deal to sell keibler to ferraro. the deal is reportedly world $1 billion and 1.5 billion the announcement of that deal could come as soon as today. thank you very much. let's get a check on this morning's other top stories outside of the world of money and business, nbc's frances

rivera in new york with those. >> good morning to you we start with a shooting in los angeles that's sending shock waves throughout the music industry and beyond as police search for the killer. law enforcement confirm that the rapper known as nitzy hustle was shot multiple times. two other men were shot but survived a suspect is still at large. a law enforcement source tells the l.a. times that the shooting is probably gang-related but they have not confirmed the moti moti motive the grammy nominated rapper was known for giving back to the community. the hip-hop artist invested in a los angeles center. now to d.c president trump is claiming exoneration in the mueller report, but the picture isn't quite so clear for americans, according to a new nbc news wall street journal poll, only 29% of americans believe he has been cleared of wrongdoing. 40% beliedon't believe he has b

cleared and 31% say they are not sure time to check those bookshelves a rare copy of harry potter has sold. it is a first edition and only one of 500 copies. it was published in 1997 and includes a few typos even the word philosopher is misspelled on the cover. those are your headlines for this april fools day. >> you've got people checking their kids bookshelves from 20 years ago. welcome to the first day of the second quarter, and after what has been a huge first quarter for investors around the world things are looking pretty good right now futures are soaring. the dow implied open is up 186 points right now the s&p and nasdaq are higher as well as frank mentioned, asia is your big focus of the stock drive this morning we have some very strong manufacturing data coming out of china overnight manufacturing there expanded at

its fastest pace in eight months in march remember, they are doing a lot to try to stimulate their economy. based on at least that one data point, it does appear to be working now. back here in the states, bonds actually selling a bit off this morning. the yield still very low, 2.44%. by the way, don't you forget about the green back, may be lost in all the stock talk recently is that the dollar index just wrapped up its first four-quarter winning streak in a decade. we are kicking off the second quarter on the back of a strong first quarter just how strong? the dow ending the quarter up 11%. that was pa inside the markets every single sector higher this year. the best of the best, technology that group up 19%. real estate and industrials coming in tied at second at a 17% gain for investors this year

the energy sector has been on fire in fact, oil had its best start to a year since 2002, crude oil up more than 33% so far this year that includes the 1% gain. crude ill $0.61 a barrel in a few minutes we're going to bring you more of these kinds of staggering stats around the global markets and how well they have done as well. despite the strong stock market we just showedyou, president trump is not happy with the federal reserve. he renewed his attacks on the central bank ahead of the weekend, trump says the fed made a mistake by raising rates and he blamed the central barng fnk for hurting te economy and stock market trump tweeting, quote, had they not done the clousridiculously d quantitative market, the president's comments coming after larry kudlow telling cnbc that he would like the fed to

reverse course on rates. >> i am echoing the president's view he has not been bashful about that view. he would like the fed to cease shrinking its balance sheet. i concur with that view. i mean, the economy looks fundamentally quite healthy. we just don't want that threat there is no inflation out there so i think the fed's actions were probably overdone let's bring in chris ripkey. welcome, we showed the stock gains. strong manufacturing data. things in the u.s. economy seem to be going okay is this a market, an economy that needs a half a percent rate cut right now? >> i used to work for kudlow at payne weber years ago, so whatever he says goes certainly. it would be unprecedented to cut

ra rate the rate. >> they think we're going into a recession. we're right next to the cliff about to go over no, we're not. we just got unemployment claims. they did their benchmark revisions and claims are at the lowest levels since 1969 >> but there's an odd logic to that if you are to your point saying we need a rate cut, is there a -- maybe a downward spiral of americans, cnbc viewers saying wow, if they're that worried shouldn't i pull back my spending >> yeah, that's the danger the fed's communication is kind of flawed in terms of they warn us about the downside risks, and the reason they warn us about that is they say that's the sill, the dog whistle for we're going to cut rates or we're going to ride to the rescue. they're telling people there's downside risk. what corporate executive is going to go out and buy a new piece of equipment for the future what consumer is going to go out

and buy a new house. >> or borrow money if you believe the president will get his way and the fed cuts rates, we could see bonds move. people may decide, you know what i'm just going to put that off i could get cheaper money in the future. >> yeah, it's interesting. i mean, they always used to say that what we really want to effect is long-teaffect is longe and mortgage rates they were almost 5% last november, now they're 4.05% it's too low now at 2.5% it just doesn't feel like policy is restrictive on the part -- >> larry is your former colleague, he's my former colleague. he is our former colleague here, he is a friend, but should the head of the national economic council be going on tv and saying we need to cut rates? >> it's a different presidency, isn't it so anything goes ordinarily that would be something that would be off the table and national economic council head would never do such

a thing, but these are unprecedented times. >> is the u.s. economy going to go into recession in the next 12 months >> i don't think so, and in fact, the yield curve might -- it inverted, maybe yields come back up a little on ten-year treasury note. they're about 2.44 right now they come up to 2.46, 47, then the curve is no longer inverted. no recession. >> it was a real pleasure to get your views thank you very much. all right, this story should get the attention of every ceo across america a federal judge in california ordering california utility pg&e stop starting wildfires. we're going to make sure you cannot pay your investors any more dividends the move comes after california investigators linked pg&e's equipment to a series of fires that devastated the state over the last couple of years legal experts say the requirements set by the judge don't set fires or you kaecan'ta dividends are mostly

unprecedented. it would not resume dividend payments until it is emerged from bankruptcy production the judge taking it one step further. time for this morning's top trending stories what are we going to be talking about today? i think a lot of people are talking about this one, especially here in the new york city area. manhattan drivers might be feeling a little bitsqueezed the borough will be the first city in the u.s. to implement what's called congestion pricing charging drivers a toll to travel below 60th street, that's below midtown. the budget will implement a mansion tax on properties worth more than $25 million and a ban on single use shopping bags. >> basically a grocery tax as well if you want to use a paper bag. >> right >> byob, bring your own bag. >> a lot of people are advocating for those bags. there's controversy about whether paper bags are better for the environment. they do have some impact as well merchants say those plastic bags

cost them more money people don't want to pay the extra for the paper bags it's supposed to be a more green impact thing. >> it's april fools' day, elon musk has a notoriously twisted sense of humor in a good way you insist this next story is not a joke. >> i'm insisting it's not a joke it's the hottest release in the hip-hop community since jay-z's album. elon musk dropped a rap song over the weekend on the music sharing site sound cloud called rip harambe. it eulogizes the -- i don't even know what to say. >> real story. song's out there. >> he did say he's making onion stories true on his twitter site. >> the onion, nice >> he has a sense of humor about himself. in the sports world, the final four is now set following

michigan's last second victory over duke last night michigan state will face texas tech and virginia will play auburn on saturday the winners of those games will face off for the national championship, just one week from today. >> i tell you what, i'm happy for our friend and colleague tyler mathisen he's a virginia cavalier he's been waiting since 1984 for this tyler, you should be booking a flight to minneapolis right now if uptown already. >> i know you were really concerned about virginia tech. >> i'm more concerned about our coach leaving. >> frank, thank you very much. one part of the u.s. market is doing something it has not done since clarice starling got up close and personal with hannibal lecter in silence of the lambs. a new quarter, a new strategy, what you should be doing with your money as we kick off quarter two with a strong start. futures up 187 points and we are back right after this.

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welcome to the second quarter, welcome to april and welcome to the continuation of a stock market rally that has been going on all year. dow futures up 184 points right now on the back of some very strong manufacturing data that came out of china. their manufacturing sector the strongest number in eight months. 2019 is off to a hot start globally that you know, but do you know where some of these global markets have marked their place in history look at this for the main indexes in each of

these nations, this is the best start to a year since, well, for germany and japan, it's 2015 not that impressive, but 2019 the shanghai composite, the best performing market this year it's been a decade since we've seen these kind of numbers, for the united states, s&p 500 best start to a year since 1998 got to go all the way back to 1993 to see this kind of a start to the year for the hang seng index and not to be outdone and the mighty mites, they're powering it higher, the russell 2000 has not started a year off this strong since 199 1. the domestic u.s. small stocks some of the hottest in the world. what is fueling this seema mody knows >> one primary reason stocks in asia did pretty well overnight in the manufacturing activity in china jumped unexpectedly in the

month of marchrising for the first time in four months. experts say, though, one data point certainly does not make a trend and it's too premature to call this a china recovery it is enough to get the market excited. china stocks rallying. the data point in other parts of the world show manufacturing is still on the decline. manufactuy contracted at its slowest pace since march. due to weakening economic conditions in china and europe and within europe germany and france pmis worsened that's a warning sign for broader europe that nation dealing with a number of acute situations including political stresses incoming the yellow vest protests and the ongoing brexit concern. overall the key question is whether the u.s./china trade dispute will be resolved given the negative effect of tariffs on other parts of the world. that's why investor attention will turn to.

>> all the markets that we just highlighted are sophisticated developed markets. what about the emerging markets, the ones you follow so closely, how have they done this year >> up about 10%, brian, in 2019 two big factors that are helping that trade one is a weaker dollar, and the other being the central bank's stimulus story, not just china but also the federal reserve keeping rates lower for longer at this point that of course has helped the emerging market stocks outperform the question is can it continue. a lot of it will have to do with the economic data. >> seema mody thank you very much great stuff. on deck, it is a huge week ahead. we're going to tell you what is key for your money this week. >> plus what did the 23rd president of the united states

are to do with this mystery chart? it's your morning rbi, it is next do not go anywhere. ♪ memories. what we deliver by delivering.

as we do every monday, we're going to set you up for the week we're going to filter out the key things, the big things for you and your money to figure out what to focus on in the midst of all this data. today you got retail sales and ism manufacturing out a bit later on tomorrow the monthly auto sales numbers cross as well as the monthly crude oil data oil up 33% this year on wednesday the adp monthly jobs number comes out. that's the services side of the economy. thursday three different fed speakers and the ecb minutes, and on friday the chinese markets are closed but we get the u.s. monthly jobs numbers and of course the resumation likely to kick off on wednesday, that perhaps the single biggest

event of the week. wow, stock futures are up. the dow futures indicating an open of 178 points to the up side, obviously coming off what was a red hot first quarter for stocks the question is this, what does the fed do joining us now is ellen zetner chief u.s. economist at morgan stanley, and despite everything we've just talked about ellen, good morning, by the way, the president tweeting late friday he wants a 50 basis point, 1/2 percent rate hut larry kudlow saying he wants a rate cut, steven moore saying we should get a rate cut. do we need a rate cut? >> no, we don't. you mentioned all the data we're going to get this week, and on balance it's going to confirm that the economy is fine i don't think the fed went too far with rate hikes. yes, we can argue all day about the december rate hike, but certainly they didn't make a mistake in september and december what we have, though, is that markets, of course, are ahead of

the data they're looking to the future. we've already gotten some forward looking data that suggests we're going to pull out of this weak quarter right now we're getting data on january and february retail sales out this morning, that was delayed from the government shutdown, and that covers the month of february, so markets are looking ahead as they should to some of these more positive data that are suggesting that we're going to be on firmer footing going into the second quarter we're just having to digest a very noisy quarter right now. >> kudo you think larry kudlow n the president know something we don't? >> no, they don't. if you are chair powell looking at how much financial conditions have eased,mostly because they took themselves out of the equation moving to the sidelines, stopping rate hikes, stopping the balance sheet runoff later this year, you know, there is nothing in that that tells you they need to cut rates. they don't need to raise rates but they don't need to ut. >> what's the goal here? >> the goal is to keep the economy more even keeled

if you're a monetary policymaker your job is to keep the economy growing around trend from their perch it looks like they've achieved that dpogoal this is what we do when we say the fed is at neutral. neutral is like being in purgato purgato purgatory, you don't know whether your next move is up or down the probability is ability the same of each of those occurring. they're walking a fine line here the economy is strengthening as we move into the second quarter. look at financial conditions there is nothing that says the next move should be down. >> steven moore may be nominated for the fed. should he be >> lets say that if he were to join the fed adds more diversity of thought he's definitely out there on the fringes. it adds another element of diversity. it might not be the best start as a fed governor when you've called for the resignation of the chair earlier last -- or late last year, that's not a

good recipe, but hey, he could be nominated this is the best backdrop he's going to get in terms of testimony, i can imagine, i've been with him when he's called for 50 year, 100 year bond, wouldn't you issue those when rates are this low >> ellen zentner of morgan stanley. time for your morning rbi. by now you have heard the remarkable statistics around this rather remarkable global run. can you name this stock? this hot chart it has not only been soaring lately, the stock's at its highest level ever since benjamin harrison was president. that was 1889 to 1893. so the answer is procter & gamble the consumer giant based in one joe kernen's hometown is trading at its highest level since it was first listed on the new york

stock exchange back in 1891, dare you say the tide has turned in a big way for p and g investors, thanks for watching "squawk box" is next w?w?uhi?só'ó

good morning, stocks are surging to kick off the second quarter. we'll show you what happened in china that's helping fuel today's global market rally. speaking of which, a big market call from btig, the firm's chief strategist is here to reveal his expectations for the fed and the u.s. economy plus, an investigator working for jeff bezos says that saudi arabia was responsible for leaking those racy text messages and pictures to the national enqui "enquire "enquirer. it's monday april 1st, 2019.

"squawk box" begins right now ♪ your love lifted me higher than i've ever been lifted before ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market on times squares, our guest host for the next two hours is elian's chief economic adviser. welcome back it's been a while. >> thank you i feel like i'm like mohammad, i'm the guest host here. >> you both fly private, so you do feel like it. >> or neither. >> delta was great. >> and united was great too. >> you're a little late though. >> when were you on? >> two weeks ago. >> it was last week. >> two weeks ago. >> it was last week no >> it was two weeks ago. >> it's weird, isn't