industrial name and continuing to move higher >> and kevin brady on tomorrow tax cut law. we'll discuss that, the economy, the fed, and everything with mr. brady. that is coming up tomorrow the exchange begins now. thank you. hi, everybody. here is what is ahead. talk about a v shaped rebound. best quarter for the dow since 2013 for the nasdaq since 2012 and for the s&p since 2009 and more good data to kick off the second quarter today we'll look at what worries the market still has if any. plus lyft is falling below its ipo price. we'll go behind the wheel and see what is happening. and apple comes up empty on a new product. walgreen's can't quit cigs and was kellogg sugar

shamed >> and a great start to the year for the s&p. well above the 2815 range everybody watched over the course of the past six moments s&p 500 up about 1%. same for the nasdaq. very healthy gains overall one theme we're seeing play out year to date is the outperformance of growth or ents whied names over value oriented names. two etfs that illustrate that, russell 1,000 growth up 17% and the value etf up 12% you see that little discrepancy getting a little wider still young, but a trend to watch. and you mentioned lyft remember this stock got as high on its ipo day as $88.60 so since then, it was a 23% gain from the ipo price and now we're off roughly around 20% so far since the ipo highs.

lyft search tcertainly the stoce day. >> thank you so much welcome to "the exchange." a key manufacturing gauge in china hit a six month high over the weekend. back here the ism's own manufacturing jumped over 55 and retail sales unexpectedly fell in february, but january was revised higher and krud crude is on the move an glass prices are 50 cents higher than early january let's drill down on the markets with bob pisani. seems like that the reaction was certainly about the ism reading this morning >> yeah, that and the china numbers. that is the most important thing. but overall, good news here is investors are very buoyed by april's terrific track record. since 1950, it is the best month for the dow up an average of 1.9% april has been up for the dow 13

straight years it is the third best month for the s&p 500 after december and november up an average 1.4%. the markets are holding on to their fwans agains and for good. china manufacturing data was better than expected it was risk on right from the outset, semiconductors, all the right stuff leading. defensive names all lagging. better than expected ism manufacturing, construction spending nunls also lifted the markets mid-morning. by the way, bond yields notably spiked banks lifted at exactly the same time as well u.s. february retail sales was indeed a disappointment, but remember january was revised notably higher and it goes to remind you can drive a truck through some of these estimates. >> good point.

and interesting to see the rally in the regional banks. dom, let's talk more about the rally that is happening despite the poor performance of lyft joining me now are neal hennessey and paul meeks and neal -- actually, paulette let me start with you. are interested in lyft and what did you make of the price action >> so i've done some pretty detailed evaluation work on lyft and i actually like the stock even a little bit lower than its last private round i'd like to see the stock at a market capitalization of about $14 billion even with today's nastiness that market cap is still 19 to 2 billion. so if i'm right that stock goes down 30% from here so not surprising that it is

showing some weakness post the uhe fo euphoria >> and neal, what are your thoughts >> lyft and tesla are emotional trades both losing $1 billion a year, so i don't know why you want in that game when you can buy tons of value out there but this is the lyft ipo could put pressure on future ipos coming forward like uber will you get that price or are you not. but bottom line, those are emotional trades and it can go either way >> what about people who say lyft has a seat at the table in autonomous driving, what about those kind of themes in general? >> the interesting thing about lyft and uber and the whole ride sharing paradigm is that there really are no network effects. and for technology companies to be successful in the long term, you need network effects where more users beget more users. this might be a company that

actually has with surge pricing and traffic negative network effects. so overtime as they get larger, you might have cost efficiencies but i don't see the potential for network effects. >> do they have network effects on the driver side though? more people you have using the service, more drivers and lower the cost should be >> takes virtuous loop and awesome for the customers. and i love those services. i use them heavily i don't know if it makes sense short intermediate or long term for the business model >> dom, let me bring you in on this we know the stock popped at the open so if you bought in at $87, doesn't feel too good right now. down 20% >> no, it didn't t as you talk about the opening trades, we've typically seen these things elevate the issue then becomes whether they stay involved in it right now.

when you see a in% rise 23% ris first couple hours and then the falloff, it didn't insti- doesn lot of confidence. but the opportunities to the down side are what people sought in the broader public markets fo fourth quarter it created opportunities for people to get chipotle amazon up 30 some percent. so there are situations that the market creates as valuations compression, there are opportunities that people will say and go hey maybe that should be in my shopping list. >> a friend of mine bought facebook at 19 several years back because she said i use the product and it just seemed like the price was so crazy low do you know how many professional investors would have killed to buy facebook at 19 is the retail investor smart enough to know that maybe 87 for lyft isn't there entry point, maybe they are waiting more for

what like paul is waiting for? >> i understand exactly what your friend did. but there is plenty of time to buy into lyft or uber or that time facebook. let them get closer break even money. if you look at lyft or uber, once you're who beinged ehooke you're hooked. if i want to take uber around the corner and it is $7, does it make a bit of difference if they double to $15? no, because i want the service the difference is today they are still losing a billion dollars and that is not a good business plan >> so with all this said, explain why you like netflix so much >> with the big event that apple hosted the other day which i really felt they were announcing some "me too" products, there has been some pressure on netflix and i actually think that in streaming, you know, netflix will continue to be the

king apple is talking about spending a billion or two on content. they are way behind. and this year netflix is going to spend about $15 billion on content. and so the worry about a threat to netflix has brought the stock down a little bit, it is clearly not a value, but you don't invest in netflix for value. but it is an opportunity off the back of what i thought was an unimpressive event last week hosted by apple. >> do you have -- some might say that they have a bad sort of type of company as well because in order to keep that content growing especially in a more competitive environment, they have to keep spending and spending and is there any kind of network effect like the type that you described earlier how long would you be holding netflix here >> that is a great question. i do think that they havethe opportunity not necessarily in the united states, but abroad to add kept and add even more to the user's base. so i do think that when they

want to and once they essentially solidify this lead just like amazon did several years ago when they morphed into amazon webster visits, you have a chance to turn off the spig on the of the spending and you have a pot. >> and we've heard your names before, kc general, american eagle, trinity the first two up, trinity down what is your favorite now? >> i think that they are all valued they have a praise of sales ratio of less than onen about earnings are up. there is plenty of room to raise the dividends. trinity industry isn't as known in a family oriented environment assay american eagle on or kc if you live in that area. but if you drive and you see guardrails, that is trinity. so there is a lot of opportunity as i said at the beginning, there is in reason to go in risk when you can go and buy value.

and then wait. >> dom, i think lyft investors were looking for guardrails today. and finally on this, we have uber around the corner, how important is it sentiment-wise for those listings >> it is interesting because the story that we've seen play out is markedly different. levi's had high expectations so uber is a real key because this is a massive one possibly with $120 billion valuation. sentiment is key >> who would have thought levi's would do better than lyft. that's why we love the market. guy, thank you all very much hear is what else is ahead on "the exchange." >> coming up -- zuckerberg makes the first move telling the government they need regulation. what could that look like? and what would it mean for investors? not too hot, not too cold.

conditions for home buyers may be the most favorable since 2012 we'll tell you why and apple cancels plans for its air powered charger. what it could be telling us about innovation at the tech giant.

welcome back to the exchange a nice rally shaping up for the markets here the s&p sitting at session highs. the dow and nasdaq only slightly off that right now caterpillar, united tech, jpmorgan all leading the dow. facebook ceo mark zuckerberg speaking out for more internet regulation zuckerberg wants a more active role for governments and regulators saying by updating the rules that question can preserve what is best about it, the freedom for people to express themselves and entrepreneurs build new things joining me now is an economic policy analyst and cnbc tr contributor. julia, why did he write this p

ode? >> he was adamant that they could find solutions to their problems, but times have changed. it is clear that even if facebook does make its own rules, those rules are not going to be satisfactory to all these different factions and are only going to draw more criticism to facebook so now zuckerberg knows regulation is inevitable and he would rather help form that regulation so he can play by the rules and not draw as much criticism as he has been facing. >> and what he says in the piece is that we need new regulation in harmful content, election integrity, privacy and data portabili portability. why do you think he wants to see active regulation in each of those four bucket cans >>ness wil listen, they have end the various controversies surrounding facebook whether it is russia meddling, kept or live streams or whether it is the various data protection breaches.

so those are the key areas that certainly legislators and congress have been looking at. and to be the one that really pops out is the embrace of the europe data protection rules, something that lot of companies have not wanted do and the way that you can look at this, to prevent even stronger regulation down the line from happening. a lot of companies are worried about held more liable for contents and big companies prefer not to have them, but as we have seen in europe, these regulations have sort of hurt investment in smaller companies. they have allowed the and market share for google and facebook and amazon to expand facebook prefers to help mold the regulations. >> and so people saying if you go through this on the issues that jimmy mentions, more regulation of the business model in general probably is better for facebook they have the resources. smaller competitors don't. election protection and harmful

content, they want to be able to point to the law and say we followed the law, you guys figure out what that is, we don't want to be held accountable. and en dven data possibility, ty don't want to undermine their model. >> i think data portability is the most interesting one this is the first time zuckerberg has said that we want to make it easy for people to take their data and content off facebook and switch to somewhere else i don't think this is a coincidence with the timing here because we also have a couple things going on. on the one hand you have zuckerberg integrating all of facebook's platforms what's app i sap whatsapp, messenger, trying to bring them all together. so breaking up facebook would be damaging to its business model and you also have the likes of senator elizabeth warren calling to break up facebook data portability will be mark zuckerberg's defense he will say we are not a

monopoly if we let people take their data off on facebook >> a great point and where does it leave google for example who also has the youtube criticisms about a lot of their business model practices, ability to please kept and privacy issues. they have not been nearly as vocal. why do you think that is >> they have not been at the center of these controversies. it wasn't long ago when people had very little bad to say about these companies. they were our national champions. and really since the election, there has been a lot more focus particularly on facebook facebook has been the vanguard of the criticism so they should be the van guard oig of trying to figure out a way to get congress off its back and begin to address these issues. which they have done i think it is easy to be skeptical, but between the supposed shift in the business model which they announced a month ago and this, i think that really sets the path forward for where the companies are going

and i think there will be more pressure on congress to mimic what europe has been doing >> guys, thank you both. appreciate it. coming up, if are you in the market for a home, your timing could be excellent we'll tell you why plus are we finally seeing a slowdown in auto sales why auto executives aren't that worried. when you look at the critical issues facing our world, what do you see? we see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. we see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of clean energy. we see engineers simulating the future to improve today. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved.

welcome back here are some of the movers this hour pg&e is seeing a bit of a comeback a federal judge in california threatened to restrict dividends if the uhe timt can't get a handle on its wildfire risk. shares have now turned positive. regional banks we saw on pace for their best day since mid-january. 2.5% for the kre today pnc, bb&t and sun trust up more than 2%. and blizzard are also up about 2% after web bush added the advise i don't game maker to its best ideas list. now to sue herera for a news update here is what is happening. former minneapolis police officer mohammad noor arriving at the courthouse for the start of jury selection in his trial he is charged with the fatal 2017 shooting of an unarmed australian woman who had called 911 to report a possible sexual

harassment -- sexual assault in the alley behind her home. xwl at least 20 were killed when a fire broke out on a bus in peru people were reportedly trapped on the second deck of the bus. three american astronauts aboard the international space station appearing live on "today." there was supposed to be the first ever all-female spacewalk, but mcclain could not complete the walk because of a spacesuit sizing issue >> so we kind of just shuffled the crews around no spacewalks were canceled. they went out the door last friday i'm going out the door again next week and we're certainly looking forward to that. we've been focused on this mission so it is a great time to be up on space station >> you are up-to-date. kelly, back to you just about 30 minutes until

"power lunch" and i'm joined by tyler mathisen >> we call this the "power lunch" tease, but it is also what is see ma mody having for love >> olives. >> snack versus luchblnch. >> suze walsh will join us and we're marking the beginning of financial literacy month i don't know how you are marking it >> if i could get my corporate card paid off, i'll feel like i started off april on the right foot >> so a deep dive into why we seem to be saving insufficient amounts. and also look at how we could do better and so forth. we'll also spend a lot of time talking about the rally, what is driving it, how much longer can it question, what tgo, what leg. >> and she has interesting thoughts >> it is surprising to me that most manage their own money without any outside adviser. that may be because they can't afford it, but that is the fact

of the matter. and sometimes you need an adviser to push you to do the right thing. and also to help you do -- avoid the things that you shouldn't do sometimes you may make too many moves and an adviser can sometimes tell you calm down, ty and they have. >> so to speak tyler, thanks. here is what is ahead on t"the exchang exchange" -- >> coming up you, lyft hits the brakes the bezos blame game walgreen's isn't quitting tobacco. andwas kellogg sugar shamed? that is all ahead in rapid fire. from fidelity. d a visual snapshot of your investments. key portfolio events. all in one place. because when it's decision time... you need decision tech. only from fidelity.

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blelet's catch you up on a stories. here to break down today's stories are leslie picker, roger pick and kate rogers we begin with lyft the stock trading below the ipo price. only public for two days the shares did jump 23% on the debut. but today we went below 70 briefly. >> that is the key first tick in the price was the highest price we saw and as the day went on friday, it slowly traded lower which to

many people indicates that institutions were selling out to retail, selling their shares that they got in the retail and retail was largely momentum driven can which which is why ye declines today mom and pop investors are more likely to sell out of fear >> so i have to get in and chase it >> another interesting thing over twitter is the idea that the ipo took place on the last trading day of the quarter which is important for a few reasons. number one if you are an institution, you report 23 1313f filings. that is the key date so it will show that you actually held on to that stock >> even if you sell it today >> and they won't know it for at least another quarter. additionally if you are a hedge fund that is under water, you post q1 numbers as of march 31st if you got this to this ipo and was able to ride it to the up

side, that could help your performance for the first quarter and make you look better for investors. >> so a couple reasons why friday's initial move might have been so exaggerated to the up side but again it goes back to what happens with lyft now that it is in public hands to decide. >> also interesting the founders when asked are you going to sell after the lockup is over, most say absolutely not, i'm a long term holder. their answer was gee, i haven't thought about it but i bet you have and it was notable that they didn't say no we're not going to sell in the lockup in september. so september is that next threshold where technically we're going to see how many people sell and how much they sell >> and also we have so many other big tech ipos coming down the line this spring and this is of course the first big one. what does it mean for ub beer, pinterest, slack, all of those companies. >> and levy's -- when i say better, could you argue it went

off perfectly for lyft because if they need the capital, which i assume to continue to compete with uber, they really do, i don't know if levy's needs the capital so much but if you need the capital, you just got the most you possibly could. so we're just talking about the difference between their interests and the interests of someone who couldn't have access until it was 87. >> for the issuer, this is near receipt particularti theoretically a win. you didn't really leave that much money on the table that you otherwise could have gotten if you maybe priced it a little lower and gotten a bigger pop. today's price is oneday. what will be interesting is to see how it really trades over the course of a few weeks after stroll i'm really comes back a little bit >> and what is the deal with the short interest is there just a couple day period where it all has to get available for borrow something. >> my understanding is if you are a huge fund, you could theoretically short the stock on friday and cover it on friday.

you would have to do it that day though you can't hold it overnight. in terms of actually borrowing stock to sell short, you need to wait for the transaction to close which takes two or three days so to actually borrow from a prime brokerage, you need to probably wait until tomorrow >> so just another day or two of figuring out if that is significant. we'll see. let's talk about what is going on with apple. it scrapped plans to release the air powered wireless charger saying it would not achieve apple's high standards samsung has had aer wouldless charger for years now. >> if you are apple, you don't want it on the market if it is not up to standards. and what is better, releasing something when a competitor already has one out that is working and then apple supposed to be the best in the game puts theirs out and it is not up to the company standards. i think that they could have really dodged a bullet with the move that they have made in holding back until they are

totally ready. but this is a rare move for apple. >> the news came out late friday so they didn't want anyone to be dwelling on this, but you're right that if it didn't work and tech crunch washington reporting that they might have run too hot because of the 3d charging coils in close proximity to one another, fine. but samsung figured it out >> and this is apple apple is not a compakocompany especially post steve jobs that announces a product and that they sven ha then have to pull. this is a well funded company and it is just shocking to me not that this is a big product, not that it mattered too much, but that they would release something and announce it and then say we didn't get it right and pull it back that is kind of amateurish for apple. >> i was looking forward to the pad. it is always behind the thing with the cord and -- >> so many cords >> on the road, i know we haven't seen this happen with a product that was announced and promised and not delivered

so something to make note of how about this, jeff bezos plift security adviser accusing the saudi arabiian government of hacking his phone. he claims it was part of the investigation into text messages and pictures linked to the "national enquirer." this story had kind of died down and now this >> yeah, we thought we were done with the selfies and texts and we thought that we had discovered that michael sanchez, laura sanchez's brother was the one who gave the tip to the national inquirer oig now comes this word from gavin de becker, he finds that he believes that the saudis accessed the texts and private information from jeff bezos' cellpho cellphone. he doesn't have any direct evidence for how they got this but -- >> the response from the national nation"national enquirer" was t

that did not happen, it came from the woman's brother >> and what was astounding about that, ami the parent company outed their source journalistically we never do that unless required by court and even then we don't but here they are voluntarily saying michael was the guy, he gave us everything we had and he was the only one >> so the unusual nature of that move either suggests that ami is lying, that maybe it knows there was saudi involvement. people will say look at the funding involved or that, b, jeff baezos doesn't want to accept that the brother is lying. >> you either believe that this was just michael sanchez and for whatever reason the $200,000 or not he gave them all the information. or that jeff bezos is the victim of a vast political global conspiracy by his haters and that is the narrative that they want to create and we still don't have clarity on which is true >> stock doesn't move in the meantime all right. we're moving on.

walgreen's is beginning to test some tobacco free stores, but it won't stop selling tobacco entirely cvs remember stopped tobacco sales back in 2014 but walgreen's is apparently saying they take a hit when they stop selling these products. they are not ready do it yet >> and not only that, when people ask for tobacco products, their employees are encouraged to point them in another direction which is to the products that are supposed to help you quit. but what is interesting about cvs, in states where cvs has a large market share, people did wind up not buying sglets anymore at all when they couldn't get access to them. so when they had more than 15% market share in the state and they stop selling, a dropoff in people buying themoverall because there is less access >> and the share of the market is very small, about 1.7%.

so it is enough i guess to move the needle for walgreen's, but even if they stop selling, it seems like gas stations is still the way -- but maybe it is about the positioning too. vchlt scvs. saying we're a health destination. >> and walgreen's is testing these tobacco-free stores. so they will have to see how customers react. >> and certain markets do have a higher rate of smoking than other markets do it is also wofrt pointing worthg trend where investors are really putting the pressure on these companies to do things that are better for society that said, wall green's is making the case that their financials take a hit when they

do these things. so it is a balance >> and there was a group of nuns who pushed for this move as well finally, sugar shaming kellogg announcing that it is selling some products to new nutella. >> yeah, a lot of companies have had success in offering healthier that cans, b snacks, not giving them all up >> and also what is amazing, the parent company is exploding. they have grown nutella into a multibillion-dollar global empire there is a store near my house -- >> and we're neighbors actually.

>> if you've had it, you get it. >> but that is a brand where yes, it is not healthy, but they figured out ways to innovate with packaging, with creating stores that are experiences. so it is not just about sugar, it is about what you do with the product. >> what you're saying is there are sugar synergies. >> sugargies >> i was going to say if you could put it in oatmeal, people are less concerned about it. you don't put a cookie in your oatmeal. but you put nutella in oatmeal, it is not that bad >> i'll have to try that >> thank you all very much april is financial literacy month and there are some surprising stats about how americans handle their finances. that is next and now a look at some of the names hitting all-time highs today including paypal and many more check it out, our unlimited plan on the brand new samsung galaxy s10. oooh.

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welcome back to "the exchange." want to get you a check on oil it is up more than 2%. but wti crude now over $61 a barrel brent also crossing 69 barrel. and gasoline prices at the pump are up 50 cents since january. we'll continue to watch it meantime it is the beginning of financial literacy month and cnbc in partnership with acorns has surveyed americans and 75% of people do manage their own funds. sharon epperson has a look at whether that is a good idea. >> a lot of people say i want to do it myself and it doesn't matter how old they are. 75% of people are think madie mi own money, only 17% using a financial adviser. and whether or not they are

doing that because they don't think that they can afford a financial adviser or because they really have the tools that they need to do it themselves, that is the big question >> i have a theory about this. and i think that it is the in x indexing effect. if there is one thing everyone kind of knows about the market, it is i just put my money in index funds, that is what warren buffett says and i never touch it again that might work okay if you are 30, but there is so much more to financial literacy >> so much more. and people forget, yes, you can have a terrific robo adviser, set it on autopilot. but what if something happens in your life that you didn't expect who is that person that will give you the emotional gut check so that you don't pull all that money out, invest in something that is too aggressive, too conservative there are not those types of questions to really prompt you to make sure that you don't do something that your gut tells you want to do but a human adviser may say look at the big

picture. >> and my dad, this is like -- but even just knowing the insurance levels that are appropriate for you, the types of products, there is a whole lot that goes into that. but i wanted to ask about a separate thing that came up which is asking people what they would do if they came upon an extra $5,000 as kind of a read into the consumer. and what did that say? >> a lot of people said that they would pay down debt a third of people said they would use to pay down debt and a significant portion said that they would put it toward short term savings are on long term it savings. the fact that anyone would put $5,000 to something that is not a say vavacation is good news t. this unexpected amount of money is a large percentage of it goes in to savings or to pay down debt, then that is great news. >> you're right, it is the right thing to do, but from a 30,000 foot point of view, you go that is why it is hard to stimulate

the economy. shair sharon, thanks last week marked the biggest drop in mortgage rates in decades creating opportunities for millions should you do it, that is next want to get social email us at at exchange@cnbc.com or find us on twitter @cnbc the exchange

a sharp drop in interest rates last week suddenly made millions more borrowers interested in a mortgage refinance. diana olick has that story >> hopefully you locked in last week because things are already bouncing in just the last couple of hours but it was one of the biggest drops in a decade. the average rate on the 30 year fix fell to nearly 4% which meant 4.9 million could likely qualify for a refinance and reduce their interest rate that was a nearly 50% increase in the size of the refi population in a single week. so on a $300,000 mortgage for example, refinancing from 4.8%

to 4.06% would save the hope other than about $133 per month. so on a $600,000 loan of course twice that or $267 per month of course it is important to factor in closing i think you are seeing a new lower nfrl they were stagnant at the higher pace but not raising rates again this year, you started to see that pullback, so perhaps sort of new lower normal where we're going to bounce around this, but definitely not where the expectations were which is heading up more towards 5% originally if you asked anyone last fall, they said that's where rates would have been. not so much. >> i wonder too if a lot of reaction in autos and housing was to that 5% raise and said,

we're not ready for it diana, thanks. diana olick. speaking of auto sales, they are expected to slow down in the first quarter. and while that may raise concerns about the health of the consumer, it's n aotll bad news for auto makers. we'll explain after this her 150. ♪ her 150. to inspire confidence through style. ♪ i'm working to make connections of a different kind. ♪ i'm working for beauty that begins with nature. ♪ to treat every car like i treat mine. ♪ at adp we're designing a better way to work, so you can achieve what you're working for. ♪ did you know that americans who bought gold in the year 2005 quadrupled their money by 2012? even now, experts all across america predict the real gold rush is just beginning. don't wait another day. physical gold coins are easy to buy and sell and one of the best ways to protect

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welcome back the auto makers rallied in the first quarter, despite an expected drop in sales when we get the full reports philip lebeau joins us now with new data that shows, it's not all gloom and doom but there's a slowdown afoot, phil. >> we are seeing it, kelly this is new data coming to us from j.d. power. the first quarter, the sales rate, the pace of sales at lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2014. now, just to refresh your memory here, coming off the best four years ever for u.s. auto sales with each of the last four years topping $17 million. there is some good news, however, in this slowdown. actually more of a shift people are going away from the cars, the sedans and increasingly moving towards trucks and suvs. when you look at pickup trucks, the auto makers are profiting from this. pick-up revenue per vehicle. look at this it's at a record high, more than

$41,000, $41,500 to be exact over the last several months but why is gm closing plants and getting out of car production? the market is moving towards pick-ups and suvs, where general motors is concentrating its efforts and its production final numbers from the first quarter as well as march numbers from other auto makers that happens starting tomorrow morning. >> stick around. bring in dave habeger, great to have you here. welcome. >> thank you >> you can correct phil if you think he got anything wrong there. >> i think he got it mostly right. >> we know he got it mostly right. so dave, what do you think is going on in the market and can you talk a little bit about the slowdown and new sales while at the same time, we're seeing strengthened used car sales? >> i think that's the big story. you do see units down, slightly. and when you look at new cars,

but sales up on newsed car a dealer who's selling new cars, probably sees a little dip in new sales, but it's offset by higher margin used car sales. >> we report on that because that's what's relevant to the publicly traded companies and all that, but, you know, used sales are benefitting from how strong the market has been the last couple of years and at some point, only so many cars you can take out there, right? >> theoretically, we see for used sales this year, probably around $40 million or $41 million, close to a record high. still plenty of demand out there, kelly but the concern that we've heard expressed for some time has been the age of the vehicles that are out on the road they have been at a record high and they're going to start to come down a little bit at some point, people who have a newer used vehicle, 3 or 4 or 5

years old. hold on to that a little bit longer, especially because the quality of these vehicles has improved dramatically. don't be surprised if at some point, we start to see a slowdown in used sales as well. >> dave, i wonder, when we talk about the trade-offs, the car makers might be selling fewer sedans but selling more trucks and suvs, what are we talking about generally in terms of profit so is one pickup equivalent to two or three cars or is that overstating it >> slightly overstating it but certainly the margins are better on that suv and pickup truck generally speaking you do have fleet sales which sometimes will skew the numbers back down a bit. fleet sales will tend to be lower margin but in general, the pickup trucks and suvs are going to be higher margin. >> are you seeing any trends amongst the auto makers? who's showing strength this year and whose sales are most likely to slow? >> you know, overall, i think there's no big winners or losers

as far as sales. i think the big change we'll see in the next year or two is new features, new systems, whether it's autonomous, or it's generally, that's going to drive the innovation in the auto space drives, turnover in volume less valuable. a very good used car market. the cars being built are fantastic nowadays they last longer however, if in the year or two, i can buy a level four autonomous vehicle, then that used car depreciates very quickly. new technology and we're right at the cusp of new technology. it will cause that depreciation to kick in at a little bit faster than you might have seen in the past. >> going back to the auto makers themselves, up 18% and gm, fiat, chrysler, negative, tesla more so what accounts for that differentiation? >> the different performance tesla is its own beast that's going to be trading for a

variety of reasons separate from where the overall auto market is and in terms of ford and general motors, fiat chrysler, the discussion out of europe about a potential hook-up, merger, tie-up, whatever term you want to use with pujo and with ford and gm, remember, these guys were really, really beaten down at the end of last year. so while they have been up, what, 12% or 13% in the first quarter, they were bouncing off low levels i think what people want to see, do we see a sustained growth from here? we have yet to see that with auto makers over an extended period of time. >> dave, we've got gasoline prices up 50% so far this year i guess that's not hurting the truck sales. >> no, they aren't at the moment i didn't realize they were up that much. but i don't, that gets factored into our analysis for our predictions and our market research so i assume our data guys did a great job in factors that in at the moment, it certainly doesn't seem to be slowing truck or pickup sales. >> thank you so much

dave habeger and our own philip lebeau, thank you very much. that does it must for "the exch" today. join melissa and tyler on "power lunch" which begins right now. >> i'm melissa lee with ty matheson beginning with a bang. should you keep with the rally is it a savvy move to get ahead of the heavy hand? and america's retirement crisis about a third of households have less than a thousand dollars in savings. the alarming stats and sound solution to secure your financial future "power lunch" starts right now >> hey, everybody. good afternoon, welcome to "power lunch." i'm tyler mathisen it is a rally on wall street this is no april fool's joke, as you see right there. 276 points higher right now. stocks