european parliamentary elections. >> it is multidimensional chess. developing some sympathy for our negotiators. chief neil ferguson, thank you for joining me appreciate it very much. that does it for "the exchange" today. thank you so much for tuning in. i'll join melissa for "power lunch" which begins right now. i'll see you in a minute, kell melissa melis melissa lee here the best move for your money a year ago since mark zuckerberg appeared on capitol hill a crackdown on tech. one of the lawmakers backing that plan will join us exclusively. and how china could spark a commodity super cycle that could last more than a decade. "power lunch" starts right now let's get a check on the markets at this hour three major averages with the biggest one-day slide since late march. in gentlemen jeopardy of fallin

first time apple a bright spot, doing something it hasn't done in eight years. much more on the apple trade straight ahead in the meantime, straight to bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. hi, bob. >> reporter: hello, melissa. stocks are down today on a combination of first, worries about additional european tariffs and secondly, another downgrade to the world economy this time from the imf bulls again dismissing most of this they insist we're going to see a soft landing in global growth and that china is already bottoming. that's the main paradigm the markets are buying that generally but you see the usual decliebs henes here in boeing au always see this when you have trade headlines that are negati negative in addition, chevron taking a break from a terrific run recently and oil breaking below $64. you see the oil name is a little weaker even tech is taking a little bit of a breather today. so you've got the big names. your apple, cisco, ibm, microsoft, all down. but what a run these four have had this year. these four giants are one of the

main reasons the s&p 500 up 50% this year. look at these gains. together, these four account for nearly 10% of the waiting of the s&p 500. kelly, back to you >> bob, thanks so much bob pisani. now to the catalyst driving today's volatility the imf cutting its outlook for the global economy to the lowest since the financial crisis steve liesman is here to break it down. >> the international monetary fund downgrading global growth, yet again, folks the global growth forecast to hit 3.3% in 2019 and that follows a similar two tenths downgrade from the imf in january. all advanced economies downgraded including the u.s., the uk, the euro area. japan and china with slight upgrades from the january forecast but not enough to keep the world from sliding further escalation of u.s. china trade tensions economic stres s in argentina ad turkey tighter credit policies in china

and alongside the normalization of the monetary policy in the larger advanced economies of all contributed. significantly weakened global expansion. the imf forecasted a decline in world trade and unclear at this point if any trade deal can stave off that slowdown. >> trade tensions were a big factor in the imf's forecast the white house issuing a list of european products that might face tariffs the world trade organization finds the european union subsidies to airbus, adversely impacted the united states and he explains that's why now the tariffs on $11 billion of eu products eu he said is taking advantage on trade for many years and will soon stop but maybe these trad watrade wars are becoming semipermanent. >> a lot of market commentary sees the trade war as a temporary event. so the u.s. china trade make a deal, the thinking goes and that's the all clear for the markets and economy. there are indications we may be in for a more protracted state

of battles it could last the balance of the trump administration >> there has been improvement on the front between the u.s. and china and a possible agreement in the near future, you know, we are worried about trade tensions escalating in other sectors like the auto sector. that's particularly damaging given that it's a highly integrated sector with the global supply chains >> consider this the u.s. skill tariffs in place with mexico and canada even after the trade deal with both countries. u.s. wants the right to put on china even after they sign a trade deal and fooibinally, threatened on aircraft, autos could be next. here's some of the trade front out there. aluminum in place. auto, aircraft threatened. on the other side, steel aluminum washing machines, industrial goods all still in place pivoting from a china trade deal to a trade battle with just one

perpetual market concern with another. so we could really be just going one after another here and never get that trade peace and perpetual trade battles. >> that's how it feels thank you, mr. liesman it's been a year since mark zuckerberg testified before congress on data privacy today, senators mark warner of virginia and deb fisher of nebraska introducing a new bipartisan bill to regulate social media web sites called the deceptive experiences to online users reduction act or detour the aim to prohibit sites from using interfaces that trick or force users to handing over personal data. so let's get over to kayla tausche now in washington sitting down with senator mark warner kayla? >> reporter: thank you, kelly and to senator warner for sitting down with us, especially after a riveting night last night that went into the wee hours. we first want to talk about the bill that you rolled out today with a catalog of issues you could regulate in social media why start with this one?

>> well, last fall i laid out a white paper with 20 different ideas. some good, some maybe not so good and i'm going to have a series of legislative proposals this is one of the first ones. this is a little more technical than some of the later proposals around privacy or around identity validation and transparency, other areas that need exploratioexploration. this one takes a look at the abuse, particularly for large platform companies, people with more than 100 million users, where you see manipulative tactics on their site or application. i think we've all seen sites that have flashing arrows to say, press i agree press i submit but could never find the unsubscribe button on the same site. this would set up an advisory group that would set up rules and regulations able to win force this effort against what we call "dark patterns," against

manipulative behavior and we think it's a good first step >> if it's a first step, what are the odds that this book becomes law or a bigger package maybe years down the road? >> i think there's such interest from the public and industry and increasingly hearing mark zuckerberg put in the paper, call for more regulation i think the platform companies now have an opportunity to put their money where their mouth is to see whether they support this legislation and other approaches my thought is there may be a privacy vehicle that may move because the platform companies said they want national privacy regulations and my hope is that if the privacy vehicle comes out of the commerce committee, this legislation and other legislative ideas that i'll be submitting may be able to be rolled into this. >> the op-ed "washington post. there's been some concern that

the companies themselves would be calling the shots or informing how lawmakers are actually regulating these companies. if these are best practices, why aren't these companies already doing this >> because i think what we've seen in the days of an unregulated internet and the days of a wild, wild west, the ability for these companies to self-police just don't have the right to become incentives >> even in the last year with the threat of regulation >> and we see they have gotten better in certain areas but still, there's hearings today, for example, for google and facebook, about the volume of hate speech that appears on the internet where we see domestically and international forces trying to come and split apart democracy. so i think we are going to need rules. the more technical area that i think we try to defer manipulative practices, we've started saying, let's see if we can create an industry-driven standards body

the security field is finra that could set standards and then enforce these standards but have the federal trade commission being the backstop if this industry regulation. >> senator warner, i'm glad you mentioned industry standard like finra but thinking more like the fda and warning labels on cigarettes could you see legislation going so far to federally standardize the opt-in box so that users will know exactly what they're opting in for in terms of sharing their information with the platform or could there be, for instance, warning labels on platforms on social media or platforms that warn that, you know, the product that a child is about to use could potentially be addictive >> i think all of these things are very much in the realm of the possible and what we wanted to try to start with is to see if the industry standard-setting body because you need this body to be agile. you need it to be able to move with technology. we think this would be the first

cut approach and i think, again, we've seen being a former business guy longer than a politician, duzoes a good job around the security issues i think we like to try that model first but some level of standardization because what we have right now is candidly, a whole series of tools that have been intellectually and scientifically proven to be extraordinarily manipulative so trying to make sure people are a little more informed about what they're signing up for and make sure people don't allow beyond first party consent to some of these platforms, trying to make sure that if you're youtube, you've got some standards in terms of kind of the videos being exposed to children all in this bucket. >> senator warner, it's interesting too. this was not my top of mind issue with the issue with social media and web sites. not to say it's not one, and may be easier to tackle. today we had something that really shows how much of a problem there is with a lot of

these new platforms. in the very hearing that the house judiciary committee was having about crimes of white nationalism, the youtube kaerg it had to shut down the comments because they were full of racism and offensive language so i think standards are important, of course, especially for this area that you're tackling but how do we come up with standards that can address that sort of issue a lot of these platforms are successful for the very reasons that they're very flawed >> i think there's really, as we move into hate speech and content, there's really two different ways to look at it all of these platform companies got granted an exemption back in the '90s that they had a birthing of the internet and these platforms where they had no requirements at any kind of control over their content >> right >> when two-thirds of americans get their news from facebook and google, maybe they ought to have the same requirements of cnbc. >> can you imagine what that

would mean for these platforms >> that is the section 230 and i'm not saying i want to go there but that ought to be part of the debate but there's a whole series of things, short of that for example, if somebody says, they're mark warner and posting a message from alexandria, virginia, maybe if we're communicated with the google live stream this morning how many content were generated by human beings or bots? maybe ought to go short of the full content editorial content maybe ought to be and this would be a very challenging issue, maybe there ought to be questions around identity validation particularly around hate speech, if you actually had to put your real name next to that, i think you might have some people backing off but this is the kind of debate we ought to have the good news is i don't think there's any democrat or republican position on this.

this is really a question of these are not going away and how do we maintain innovation but still give some level of protection to folks receiving this information >> the price though to pay for regulating this industry in the way that you want to regulate it is stifling the tech industry, stifling a new generation of facebooks and googles from coming up, is it worth that price? and i ask this because there's some thinking it's the deep pocket of large cap publicly traded social media platforms out there that can afford to enforce any regulation that's put upon them and it is the crop of younger, you know, perhaps uninformed tech companies still to come that won't be able to become the next googles out there. >> i think there's some validity in what you say. as a former tech venture capitalist, if i was in the apps business right now, your only exit is to a big company like facebook or google the whole other area i'm looking at in terms of rules would be more transparency.

i think a lot of people feel like these platforms are free. there's nothing free about them. if we knew how many information points facebook or google has about us, i think that would be really relevant to us as consumers. if we knew how much your data was worth on a monthly basis to facebook or my data was worth on a monthly basis to google, that transparency might allow new entrants into the market and in fact, disintermediate between the platform company and the consumer i want to try an approach to get rid of some of the manipulation. i do think we're going to need to get into the identity/content discussion and obviously, we haven't even touched on privacy how do we set rules of the road that will continue to foster innovation but not allow the kind of abuse that takes place and it's going to, the notion that the status quo will continue but see individual

states act and the europeans act on privacy and the brits start to act on the content rules around hate. so this is coming and my argument to these companies is work with us to maintain american innovation and frankly, i'd rather have our government set the rules of the road than other countries. >> one problem you haven't identified is anti-trust some of your colleagues raised that as an issue do you believe after studying the likes of facebook and google on a senate intelligence committee, these companies are too big to fail or police themselves >> these companies have enormous, enormous power and we do need to introduce more competition. >> does that mean breaking them up >> here's my concern these are now companies that don't exist in an american only vacuum these are all global companies and i have some concern as somebody who's very concerned about the rise of china that if we were to kind of chop off the legs of facebook and google,

they might be replaced by alibaba, 10 cent, companies totally enmeshed with the chinese government in their global economic plan before we get to the break-up proposition, are there other rules of the road to introduce more competition than transparency and prohibit some of the manipulative behavior in the rules i'm laying out or the legislation i'm laying out today. can we add some more privacy issues and look at the question around identity/content, particularly in the areas around hate speech? this is going to be a debate not solved right away but i can't think beyond the ramifications we've seen to interference in our political process or for that matter, if you're, i don't know, any young mom that's not afraid of what their kids may be seeing on youtube. this is going to be an issue not going to go away it's going to only get potentially worse and we've got to roll up our sleeves and solve

it >> we'll look forward to continuing to have this debate and on to join us, as well as your republican colleagues thank you, senator warner. >> go uva. >> back to you senator warner and kayla tausche in washington. coming up, pinterest continuing the ipo road show pinning its hopes on being able to convince investors it's not facebook we'll explain. apple up more than 25% so far this year. the stock doing something it has not done in more than eight years. years. stay with us on "power lunch."vr in an etf? don't just track an index, help me meet a client's need. is the fund built to sell or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.

go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. tthis is where i trades. and manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets. and gold markets. ok. i'm plugged into equities. trade confirmed. and i have global access 24/7. meaning, i can do what i need to do. then i can focus on what i want to do. visit your online broker today, to learn more.

pinterest taking the next step towards going public. ipo and explained why it is not similar to social media companies like facebook. leslie picker on the road with pinterest. leslie >> reporter: uahey, melissa it ended an hour ago with the second floor space behind me media are not allowed in to the presentation but caught up with six investors on the way out to get a sense of what went on and overall, we heard some pretty positive feedback from the investors we spoke with. they touted pinterest's one of a kind business model. they said it was coming out at a

fair valuation according to the terms disclosed yesterday and overall, most were pretty impressed with ceo ben silver man and his presentation only three questions were asked during the q and a portion of the event today. those investors said they were asked, the management's vision to grow their user base as well as how they plan to close the monetization gap with twitter and facebook and then there was a technical question surrounding working capital and we're told that the executives answered those questions by really honing in on the fact their mon at t monetization this was the first big meeting with investors here in new york city the executives will continue to hold more like it over the course of this week and much of next week as they really try to assess demand for this ipo before setting a final price next wednesday night guys. >> leslie, thank you

leslie picker in manhattan in april, growing trade tensions and fears of the slowing global economy and kicks off this week. a lot for investors to chew on michael, president and portfolio manager with permanent portfolio family and cnbc contributor, president and ceo of farr, miller and washington. great to have you both with us, gentlemen. michael, i'll kick it off to you. when you take a look at some of the valuations out there, we are pretty much on the s&p 500 at the same valuation at just before the selloff last fall on technology, it's the same case here we are with fresh highs pretty much. how should we think about it mike, how do we think about the markets as we go into earnings season >> those are at good poill goods the impact of fairly weak global growth on the u.s. economy and

the growing impact of the presidential elections coming up in 2020. and the fed and whether they're going to be staying on the sidelines and whether we do, in fact, with strong growth have another rate or increase or two and whether we slow down and begin to talk about rate cuts. they're stocks into q1 earnings season not expected to be great but it is still going to be a growth quarter and probably a softer one with expectations of better growth throughout the rest of the year >> what are you expecting, michael farr >> i think michael said it pretty much right there at the end. not great, but growth. and we're seeing that from around the world we're seeing that as the constant theme around the world. we're getting some growth. but you know, i keep hearing, melissa, all of the cassandras are saying, we're going into recession and the whole world is coming to an end it's like we try to plan a funeral but don't have a body specifically anywhere yet. i find it a little frustrating

i think people and investors should be a bit cautious coming into this earnings season. we're up about 6% on the s&p in the past 30 days that's pretty strong so there's probably a risk for a little bit of a pullback but underlying all of this, we have very high employment, we have low interest rates, we've got no inflation. we've got a fed that's moved to the sidelines which is a really good place to keep any central bank i mean, it's just not awful and people keep trying to make it awful. i think you're going to have a buying opportunity here and ought to have your list out and ought to make sure they're good balance sheets in there because the waters are probably going to get a bit bumpier. >> you see earnings expansion and so therefore, also price appreciation so the multiples may not be much higher but see advances in the indices? >> i think so. i mean, so where we are right now is on the higher end of average for price to earnings multiples. we're at a discount to where we were a year ago. well below

market's not cheap market's not expensive if price to earnings ratios stay level, yes, i think certainly, earnings drive prices higher i think with the wage inflation we're seeing, maybe the fed got this right maybe they actually architected this soft landing and with wage inflation, we'll see organic consumer demand start real organic growth again remains to be seen but i don't think all the negativity is called for yet especially with the fourth quarter. >> global growth and the primary reasons, the u.s. and china and some of the uncertainties with brexit and european growth in general. to me, it was not news

and michael mentioned a lot of factors. i don't see those changing or any of those, the types of things that would cause a recession at the moment. i don't see this happening immediately. the interest rates, for example, fed funds roughly at the fends inflation target at the moment staying neutral but probably the right approach and dropping six months from now but we don't know enough data they're right at the moment. corporate earnings still growing weaker but still growing, the rate of growth is still slowing but still, that's good and that provides a foundation for stocks going forward. i would agree with michael there's a buying opportunity here and potential for better movement in stocks going

forward. >> thank you sto the michaels. >> thank you tech on a tear the s&p 500 tech sector up 23% so far this year, the best start ever apple is a big reason with the 26% gain can it keep going? "the exchangsho "trading nation" asks that and then congressional testimony after a big drop, the stock now up 13% since then. what's ahead for facebook and the rest of the fangs coming up on "power lunch.

we got no free pass. everything we have, we've earned. the unmistakable lexus is. lease the 2019 is 300 for $329 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

feel that? that's the beat of global markets, the rhythm of the world. but to us, it's the pace of tomorrow. with ingenuity, technologies, and markets expertise we create the possible. and when you do that, you don't chase the pace of tomorrow. you set it. nasdaq. rewrite tomorrow.

welcome back to "power lunch. all eyes on apple right now. if closes today, the longest winning streak since 2010. shares up 30% this year of the tech giant can it keep climbing matt maley, the trading nation team matt, let's talk about the charts and what do the technicals tell you about apple here >> long-term, it looks fabulous. the fourth quarter, it was still able to hold its long-term multiyear trend line that was very bullish.

of course, the rally since then taken back the 200 moving average. again, quite bullish the near term basis, could be getting ready for a pullback the rsi chart, getting its overbought, extended, kind of the same level where it's seen pullbacks over the last two years and also, you look at the 40% rally. just three months, over 3 months and going back to the late 1990s, you didn't see a rally of more than that, unless it pulled back 7 or 8% it could pull back a little bit here and i think people will like the stock might want to look to buy it on this next dip rather than chasing at these levels >> so a near term pullback, but like it longer term because of the trends mark, what about you what are you looking at or see ahead for apple? >> we like the stock we were bearish on it last year when they continued to hike prices and offering financing on their iphones, offset thedesel

-- decelerating but now they're transitioning to wearables and what we're seeing is analysts are finally beginning to apply different multiples to their different business lines which is good. and investors now have an opportunity to getting close to the ground floor on that transition and that's how you make money >> okay. >> sentiment on the street has never been more negative on apple. it's typically a consensus buy, right now it's 50/50 and as soon as the street flips, that stock is going to soar we do like it. >> you like it here, you like it in the future, you like it period >> i do. i mean, over the last few years, this has really just been the value play now it should appeal to value investors or that sand box is twice as big. >> growth at a reasonable a price. thank you both mark and matt. for more "trading nation," follow at the web site or twitter at @tradingnation. >> with steven mnuchin. >> reporter: he's testifying

this morning started off with tough questioning by committee chairwoman maxine waters asked mnuchin whether he'd release president trump's tax returns even it meant getting fired. >> i'm not afraid of being fired at all >> very good >> having said that, i want to be clear i've said we will follow the law and we are >> you're not afraid of being fired. >> reporter: the deadline to come p comply to release the tax returns is tomorrow and there have been speculations swirling for a while that president trump s is unhappy with the secretary particularly over the role of getting jay powell to serve as federal reserve chair but not afraid of being fired. back over to you guys. >> ylan mui in washington. ahead on "power lunch," why china could fuel a super cycle that could last more than a decade plus, google kicking off the

annual cloud computing conference bring you the latest headlines and if you think your tax streak is smaller than usual, probably is we will be explaining. all this when "power lunch" returns. >> and now, the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> volatility spikes are notoriously difficult to forecast but when they do occur, tend to be short-lived so rather than try to predict the next fight, instead consider positioning your portfolio when volatility comes back down i'm joanna payne and schwab is the better place for traders

your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

hello, everyone. i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. 16 parents including actress lori loughlin and her husband mossimo giannulli were hit with a new charge of money laundering conspiracy for their roles in the college admissions scandal all arrested last month to commit mail and wire fraud uganda police arrested some people that they believe may be connected to the kidnapping last week of an american tourist who has since been freed they did not specify how many people were arrested but said the hunt for the kidnappers is

taking place in southwestern uganda >> we are progressing. extensive in the district in the neighboring areas, able to come up with the arrests. >> new york firefighters remembering one of their own it was lowered to half staff, one of three americans killed monday in afghanistan by a road side bomb. he was a 15 year fire fighter, a husband and a father of three. that is the news update this hour melissa, back to you >> thank you, sue herera eric chemi at the cnbc commodity desk. >> you can see the red oil dropping behind me from the five month high yesterday following comments from the energy minister who indicated the country could end its supply cutting agreements with opec at the next meeting

russia wants to increase output if the market appears on track to balance in the second half of 2019 those statements helping bring prices lower as you can see despite violent conflict in libya that had threatened production of exports. wti and brent both finishing the session as 0.7% lower. >> stay with the commodity world. china's growing appetite for food could fuel a commodity supercycle lasting more than a decade johnny with wells fargo investment institute welcome. >> thanks, kelly good to see you. >> i was in a way surprised to see this because it reminded me of a decade ago with so much talk about commodity supercycles. lately, the talk much more to trade wars and tariffs and how much china is growing. why bring back this argument now? >> yeah, chinese demand is at the crux of all of the commodity stuff that you see if you go back to 1980 as an

example, china consumed about 5% of the world's metals. now it's north of 50%. they really consume more than 50% of copper, tin, lead, zinc and so on. the same is not the case with food they consume about 20 roughly percent of the food consumption in the world the difference between the two 20 years ago was more or less metals and energy from a command economy perspective. they can do what they want they can say, go build another road, another bridge they can't necessarily say, go consume 400 more calories a day. >> it's not that they're saying that but i take your point as they develop and get wealthier, they'll demand more of that and driven some deals we've seen for pork in the u.s. we've got soybeans kind of at the heart of the trade talk with u.s. and china as well tell us, specifically, which food commodities you think are poised to outperform and by how

much >> it's going to be beef and grains i know a lot of you viewers look at that and say, how do i play that but fertilizer is one way. the individual commodities are another way. and the reason is because china is increasingly turning to importing those food products. the middle class is massive at this point about 75% of the middle class on top of that is going to be considered middle to upper class in the next three or four years. they're consuming, based on the history too, what happens is you tend to consume more proteins, sugars and so on that's higher income type of stuff. tends to push up beef prices and push up just generally, the food prices soy, corn, that kind of thing goes into feed for the beef itself. >> when it comes to the metals, john, i get your point in terms of chinese consumers need to consume. the population is growing, et cetera but when it comes to the point on the command economy, we are at a point in time where china

looks to throw a lot of stimulus behind the economy with oil, which do you see benefitting the most from the super cycle? >> the metals. the metals were by far the most impacted area that's out there that connection faded though because about ten years ago in 2010, the five year plan that the chinese put out, we want to focus more on the consumer now we want to be more like the west as an example today, you hear on this program quite a bit the u.s. about 70% of our gdp is the consumer that's not the case in china it's about 40% ten years ago, 30% for china they're starting to move to be more like the west more food oriented energy plays both sides. energy plays the consumer and it plays cap x at the same time so china today is an example,

they consume about 13 million barrels of oil today it was 4 or 5 million barrels, just 15 years ago. they're second only to the u.s the most impacted area is probably energy, probably oil, versus metals moving forward >> all right oil, beef and grains thanks so much >> thanks, kelly >> from wells fargo investment institute. tech has been on fire so far this year. so what's behind that rally and can the run continue that's coming up on "power lunch.

when you look at the critical issues facing our world, what do you see? we see a billion more people breathing free. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. we see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. it's a revolution in sleep. the sleep number 360 smart bed, from $999... senses your movement and automatically adjusts on each side to keep you both comfortable. and snoring? how smart is that? smarter sleep. so you can come out swinging, maintain your inner focus, and wake up rested and ready for anything. sleep number is ranked #1 in customer satisfaction with mattresses by j. d. power. save $400 on select sleep number 360 smart beds.

only for a limited time.

markets may be down today but overall, much of it fueled by technology which is having the best ever start to a year soaring 22% in 2019 versus 15% for the s&p 500. one of the individual names driving tech higher, apple which will post its tenth straight day of gains if the

shares end in the positive today. not achieved in eight years and not just apple but rallying this year too and today facebook, amazon, netflix and alphabet all soaring double digits managing partner, great to have you with us. >> hi, melissa. >> hi. i start off with apple because the streak that it's on is pretty amazing what has happened in ten days, gene i mean, yes, they rolled out the subscription services so they have a new stream of services out there and morgan stanley got more bullish thinking there's going to be a part of the app store that is going to deal specifically with health but has apple changed the narrative at allin the last te days >> what's changed, i think, is this apprehension about iphone units that has been somewhat addressed by lack of news out of the supply chain so if we remind three months ago at this time, we had been hearing lots of reports about apple cutting demand, cutting orders for future iphone builds

and i think that the absence of those negative data points has left investors with a sense that we're not in front of some negative news. now, that doesn't change the overall theme about where the iphone is relative to the others but i think that's the sole reason or one of the biggest reasons why the stock is moving higher more recently. >> do you think that in between now and the launch of a 5g phone, gene, what do you think demand is for that iphone? if you're a consumer out there and do i upgrade or not in time frame before the 5g phone, probably wouldn't upgrade for $5,000 or more for a phone. >> 5g is going to be bigger than anyone thinks it's going to actually our our lives it's hard to put our heads around the significance of it but going to take longer i think this idea that if apple doesn't have the 5g phone out this year or next year, they're going to somehow miss the window that's a misguided view.

and specifically, as we're probably looking at kind of this adoption of 5g at 70% in the u.s., 2021 or 2022 but can't emphasize enough with the best play around 5g is the height is inevitable to come, the best play around that is in fact, apple because they have the iphone cycle that will benefit from that and then augment reality and some of the health care initiatives so i think that the company is exceptional well positioned for investors to play 5g but i strongly advised to have some patience around when that lyft is going to take off >> one more on this because i actually am really surprised to me, 5g talks about it disintermediates apple, something on the smartphones to ubiquitous so our cars and devices and homes and so much of the right now dormant things around us and as we saw, verizon just launched its network with a motorola 5g phone and not an apple one and has had setbacks

with the air power issues and other things aren't there better ways to play 5g than through apple? >> no, i don't there is. and part of the reason, yes, you can place some component suppliers but at the end of th play components. one is this is a product cycle company. you own it in anticipation of -- when numbers are negative around the iphone, in anticipation of the numbers turning positive i think the 5g example will drive that the second is the idea of apple as a service, factoring in they're coming out with more products around what they've announced more recently. the beautiful thing is both of those narratives should get a lift, both the services narrative around 5g and for those who apple with a historic product cycle company.

that's why i think it's the best i feel strongly the stock will be positive. hard to predict the quarter when that happens over the next two years we should get the lift. >> gene, thank you >> thank you next on "power lunch," why your tax refund is a little smaller than usual or why you might not be getting a refund at all. the details on what's going on levi strauss reports its first earnings as a public company "squawk aly" hleas an exclusive "squawk aly" hleas an exclusive tomorrow cfa institute.

let's stop talking and actually be more diverse. as investment management professionals, let's measure up. cfa institute.

welcome back one week until tax day, and many americans have been finding out they aren't getting a refund this year. robert frank is here to explain why. >> tax refund season is looking leaner for most americans after that new tax law now total refunds issued through the end of march were down by $6 billion compared to last year. the average refund is down only slightly falling $20 but the number of americans who received refunds is down dramatically 1.6 million fewer americans received refunds the filers who expect the biggest refunds, they're the

ones who file first so the totals aren't likely to change much from here on in more than two-thirds of americans received a tax cut under the new tax law but received the bulk of those cuts in their paychecks throughout the year they may not have noticed as much and since many use tax refunds as a savings plan, this weaker refund season could impact consumer spending a new "wall street journal"/nbc poll showed only 17% of respondents said they got a tax cut this year while 28% said they are paying more the real numbers are that two-thirds of americans got a tax cut, but only 18% think they did. and that's a lot is because they got it during the year in small numbers in their paychecks rather than the refund >> i wonder how things will change next year when people are more familiar with the tax laws and how to get around them "the profit" is back tonight. an emotional journey back to lebanon visiting the beirut

orphanage he was adopted from when he was 9 months old that's tonight at 9:00 p.m. and that'duncan just prot0 p.m. and s family with a $500,000 life insurance policy. how much do you think it cost him? $100 a month? $75? $50? actually, duncan got his $500,000 for under $28 a month. less than a dollar a day. his secret? selectquote. in just minutes, a selectquote agent will comparison shop nearly a dozen highly-rated life insurance companies, and give you a choice of your five best rates. duncan's wife cassie got a $750,000 policy for under $23 a month. give your family the security it needs at a price you can afford.

check please >> welcome back, it's time fob "check please. the measles outbreak is getting worse in new york and new jersey new york city is ordering mandatory vaccinations where there's been a really bad outbreak they're going to require unvaccinated individuals to receive the measles vaccine or

face $1,000 fines. this comes after rockland county, where i used to be to costco, we spoke to the administrator there last month who had issued a ruling saying no unvaccinated children could be in public places 30 days. a judge overturned that. it's raised awareness on the issue. they have done a spate of vaccinations but not enough. >> the result of all that anti-vaccinating sentiment >> it is a problem for business. i am not setting foot in that county for maybe a year. i used to be to costco and restaurants. >> you're vaccinated >> the 9-month-old is not. >> not yet i'm watching shares of the steel companies. take a look at the slide in the stock. it's down by, what, 10%. down grade over credit suisse because of a sheet storm sheet tsunami. hot rolled coil steel sheets the ramp-up in pro-decks will

having and the analyst concern about the glut that's going to happen with this sheet storm that's about to occur. so down grading stock -- >> i wasn't sure if you were misspeaking -- congratulations to tyler how about a round of applause for uva last night there he is with his son taking in the game. >> he was at the game. >> good for him. see him back tomorrow. >> "closing bell" starts right now. it is the final hour of trade, barclay shares up 11% this year. the ceo will join us exclusively coming up. and a no wynn deal we have details on why the casino giant called off its potential crown resorts takeover just hours after confirming they were in talks. and levi's is going to report its first earnings since going public we'll break down the numbers as soon as they are released just after the closing bell which starts right now