Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 23, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

5:00 pm
as you can see it's down some 15% or so, but the real headline today, is the record all-time close for the s&p and the nasdaq some seven months. >> seven months for the s&p and i think it was august and eight months for the nasdaq. the dow is at .7% away and boeing has held it back. will the gains continue? the earnings certainly are coming in strong and that continued after hours. >> that does it for closing bell thanks for watching. >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york's times square. brian kelly, karen finerman and guy adami. check out shares of snap after the earnings report morning ago and the conference call kicking off right now and we'll bring you the very latest and plus the market closing at record highs and wall street's biggest bear says the gains are in for the year and wells fargo's chris harvey will be here to explain and that's where we start with the market rally that no one can seem to touch, not the fed and not trade wars and not fears of an earnings recession being
5:01 pm
washed away and closing at its highest level since september 20th and the margin has been on what it seemed like an unstoppable run off the december low. so is the party just beginning or can you still buy, guy? >> first of all, i love that song ♪ ♪ >> do you have the mc hammer pants? >> fantastic it's like '90s-ish, right? >> i think it is clearly, you can't go to blockbuster and tower record to buy that album although i did back in the day. what you can buy is health care and, eli lillygoing from 132 t 117 and pfizer from 44 to 39 merck, same way. you've seen a bounce in unh and health care has been thain to the wood shed on rhetoric that will go away they better crush, because this stock is going from basically 90
5:02 pm
to 137 in a straight line. so i would be a little leary there. however, i do think healthcare's been beaten up for the wrong reason >> some would say the market is too legit to quit. >> >> oh! >> you can't touch this. here's the thing you can can't go back to the mega-caps and there's been great rotation and some of the groups that we did not expect to power the stock to the prior highs have done it i have to tell you, though, you have to look at the apple, the google and the amazon and forget the ammo maga because microsoft has made those highs you know, you have these stocks that have come back 40, 45%. and you have to ask yourself after the reversal of the s&p 500, what catapults above those prior highs in a meaningful manner i'm just telling you, when you look at amazon and apple, they still have some room to get back to their prior highs and i just don't see that as the thing and the catalyst to take us further
5:03 pm
and we'll get google on monday and apple on tuesday and i think those will be important dates. >> if you get decent earnings and sentiment in general and you look at something like the city economic surprise index and that's at an all-time low and sentiment, what people are expecting out of this market are very low and i can come up with a bunch of different scenarios and all of these are headwinds and the market just doesn't care it just keeps going on maybe this is a blow-up top and a meltup and whatever term you want to use and i want to initiate a new position here. >> i agree, my long bias is how i will be positioned and some of these names have run up the alphabet and i actually sold upside calls today it's run a lot it actually did touch an all-time high today and fell off a few points and closed a few points below that, and i probably would look to sell some other calls and other things and even something like j.p. morgan and the upside call doesn't have
5:04 pm
a lot of juice in them and i'm not surprised that the first quarter was decent for companies, but i feel like any sort of expectation that earnings would disappoint is kind of out of the market now and as the bar gets higher and even if you report good earnings it's hard to beat. so i'm inclined to sort of be selling some upside calls. >> i have a question when we talk about the run, you know, it's come a long way are we talking about the december lows because some could argue we should have never gone down to the december lows. >> we're up 17% and that's a good year. >> but still, with 23% off of the december lows, i don't know, i just think up 17% for the year is a good year in anybody's book >> that's a good point, when you think about the start of
5:05 pm
january, remember we were talking about in the third week of january up 7%, 8%, can this continue to go here and we had a 12% correction and a 20% correction and now we're back at those levels here and you say to yourself is this where you're supposed to be with those tax cuts and the pro-growth sort of stuff and are we set for another leg of this bull market and that's your question if that is your belief, then you do want to rotate into things like bank stocks and i think you've been all over that. some of them did pretty well after the q-1 results and some are stuck in the mud and if you think like larry said, we'll have a meltup then these banks will start to participate and obviously the yield curve will start to participate and it will move from the mid, 15 basis point sort of level and that would become a headwind and i would say if you're in that camp that's where you go. if you take a look at what brought us to the december lows there are a lot of concerns that seem to have been resolved, right? we had the fed pivot and
5:06 pm
evidence in china and around the world and we thought everything would grind to a halt. it has not so if we're back to those levels and we're just above those levelses, where are we now >> europe is less bad and it's still miserable. chinese have thrown a ridiculous amount of money into the economy and they're up 34% or so from the low they made. january 2 rnd, we did a two-hour show and he's not always bearish. on that day he said if you'll recall, this sets up well for the bulls because of the earnings and he's been exactly right and he talks about the bar being raised now i think you should listen to him, number one. number two, you're right we are back to where we were basically in september the move from march to september in the s&p was 2600 to 2900 in a straight line. we're right back there now and
5:07 pm
effectively where we were in the fallings aren't great. earnings are fine. that's really the -- people are looking for a reason to get long this market and they think the fed has their back i'm not confident of that, but what i will say in termses of what you can still buy defense stocks and look at lockheed martin have i missed it no, you haven't missed it and there's probably still another 10% to 15% to get us back to where we were and before we mentioned the fall >> why don't we want to buy technology, the market leader. at this point, don't you want to buy? >> what do you mean? >> i mean, s&p 500 -- technology stocks, and start with that because there are a lot of people out there that are exposed through etf or anywhere else you want to go, anywhere that has this notion of idiosyncratic growth >> those are names that i would stay away from because if we're starting to see growth come back you don't need the idiosyncratic growth you need companies that are
5:08 pm
exposed to the cyclical upturn so you might see a rotation. that's what we're seeing a lot of even near the lows and when we thought the economy was going into recession, you saw a bid in apple and some of these names because they have that idiosyncratic. here, you sell those and if you want to be long, maybe you do buy some of the banks and something like that. >> this goes back to the january 2nd, what happened that day? apple told us their earnings were to be down and this was the first year that their earnings and sales would be flat. it's down year over year and we know that's it's a third consecutive unit and my point thenwas that coming into the year after the sell-off that we've had with expectations in november and december coming down and that was for 2019 that sets up really well and relative to expectations and it's also really important to remember as we're focused now on earnings guidance going forward that apple told us that china -- this was in the recessionary
5:09 pm
period and maybe we were way too negative back then and way too positive right now >> let's talk about the earnings we have right now and granted it's early, and what are we learning about the companies we're learning that companies are able to raise prices, right? procter & gamble raising price e coca-cola, raising prices and csx raising prices aren't they good things? >> growth may be challenged and you may perceive growth to be challenged, but companies are better equipped to handle this >> yeah, i like to say those were broad beats and it's g getting to that point where it's priced in and they're probably not initiating new positions and taking money off the table those were priced expensively with the huge stories and something like a zoom, you know, i just could never get my arms around that kind of valuation.
5:10 pm
we're literally on the heels or on the cusp of a $100 billion market cap of uber coming to market you just mentioned zoom and pinterest. we have all of these deals coming at a time we are back to these prior highs where valuation will become a concern. so some of those names we just talked about and those old mega-caps on a relative basis, i think they look attractive you know what i mean i think the uber deal when this thing comes it will be a very important test of this market especially when you consider how many tens of billions of new issues have come and how many are expected to come after uber at a time when investors are all of a sudden really complacent to me >> a test in what way? >> a test of how what sort of hands are holding these things, right? we saw apple go from 230 in three months if you don't think that uber can lose 50% of it's market value at some point in 2019
5:11 pm
if uber traded like lyft what does it tell you >> it will be a real problem i just do, and those are losses that people have to digest here and now. >> all right despite what has been an epic rally for stocks, let's bring in chris harvey head of securities. what do you do you sell and go away and say thank you, see you next year >> no, you don't do that we don't think the gains are in for the year and we came in too cautious we think fair value is 2900. we could go a little bit higher from here, but you do have to -- what you were saying before you're right, there has to be a rotation you want to shift back tovalue to things that went worked we just upgraded the financials a couple of days ago and if you look at germany, rates have gone from negative to positive and that's something they haven't done for a while trading will happen shortly and you want that cyclical exposure and you want those industrials
5:12 pm
and the cap good names and as far as technology, we were positive on semis and now we're saying, hey, they're up 15% since they upgraded and it's time to take a breather and time to shift around and move the portfolio and we still think there's opportunity in the marketplace. >> if you think things aren't as bad in china turning around and would you allocate the countries an opposed to the u.s. we've been positive on the cap good space and we want exposure to the international trade we're in china a couple of weeks ago and what clients and investors are saying to us is the economy is much stronger than you think and if we get trade and tariff done? another couple of months i'm standing in b.k.'s lane here, but u.s. dollar, every time i turn around, that it doesn't seem to be a headwind now? where does that come from? >> getting back to earnings season, what are we seeing
5:13 pm
costs are now being mitigated and we are getting priced and the economy is okay. as we get priced demand is not going away and so we're able to mitigate a lot of these things and i can't tell you when the dollar will start to come back in, if it starts to firm up you should see the dollar at some point. >> this is a topic for the year, do you include the feds being back in the picture at all do you know -- >> i don't think the fed gets back in the picture. i think the next move for the fed -- i don't think the fed does anything for the rest of the year they've done enough. it's time for them to move the lines and i think they're okay being there and the economy is in good shape. monetary policy while i'm not happy the way we got here is okay we've reset things and as we go forward there's not that much speculation and what we heard from earnings season is we haven't re-ricked sked at this t in time. >> people are com placent and what worries you what can derail this thing
5:14 pm
are we in a melt up type of thing. >> i won't say people are complacent and people are very concerned and people haven't rerisked they don't have enough risk in their portfolio. what has worried me and what continues to worry me is the front end of the yield curve the yield curve has flattened and we know that this yield curve continues to flatten and we have a problem and perception can become reality and that's the thing that worries me more than anything else. do you think equity allocation and risk in the portfolio and leverage we're not seeing a whole lot of leverage in the system at this point in time and so really right across the board we have not seen this. >> you sound like the highs or near highs and we're 2933 right now. >> our other risk as b.k. said before, you could see a meltup, right? so rates are low and credit spreads are tight and people
5:15 pm
haven't re-risked and china is back online and i'm not trying to play both sides of the fence and we see issue and you can see some upside, things aren't bad out there. you sound more bullish than neutral. it sounds like you're on the cusp of raising your price target [ laughter ] all right. your number one sector that you think people should be in. >> financials. we just upgraded diversified financials and some of the credit card companies. >> chris, great to have you. thank you. chris harvey all right. where do we go from here, dan? >> i think it's important to remember the whole laundry list of concerns in q4. other than the fed, not many of them have abated and we still have an 8, 9 $10 trillion of
5:16 pm
sovereign debt and what does that tell you about the health of the global economy. we've had organizations and global growth expectations for 2019, so to me, i feel like we're back at these highs, have a party, people, it's amazing. we've done this now three times in 18 months and it's a great thing, but just remember the last two times that were here and people make bad decisions and buying high and selling low and it doesn't 19 you have what karen does and take upside calls and take off some of the names that have actually gone up 15, 20, 30% like the semis there's nothing wrong with taking a little off the table and maybe rotating health care and maybe that's the better move here and to me what everybody is saying is this is a tricker market than where we were at the low and it's the deep end of the pool. >> check out shares of snap
5:17 pm
after giving up most of its gains and the ceo speaking on the conference call right now and we'll bring you the very latest amazon making a deal with kohl's, sending the retail soaring and could it turn into a lifeline for department stores and we will explain. later it's the 5g phenomenon oz they race through to get up to speed. the top analysts will tell you who. much more "fast money" right after this it's about quality. no trendy stuff. i want etfs backed by research. is it built for the long-term? my reputation depends on it. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.
5:18 pm
plants capture co2. what if other kinds of plants captured it too? if these industrial plants had technology that captured carbon like trees we could help lower emissions. carbon capture is important technology - and experts agree. that's why we're working on ways to improve it. so plants... can be a little more... like plants. ♪
5:19 pm
5:20 pm
welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings a loelert o ebay and global active users are 4% to $180 million during the first quarter. dan? >> listen, this is actually a growth story earnings per share expected to grow 15% year over year and trading at less than 14 times, good balance sheet we know there are a couple of activists there. to me, as amazon flexes its muscles in e-commerce, the whole marketplace thing is being left for dead and that's something that ebay is well tuned to deal with >> yeah. i like ebay. i should follow the activists in
5:21 pm
and it was really elliott and that was there on the board now. i think that's great that things are, you know, earnings are good and it's really about where are we going to see asset or sales and i'm still in it here hanging on. >> real quick, quickly, operating margins and almost 30%. the street was being looking at 28 1/2 to 29% and that's a good number to dan's point it's a valuation play and the stock is cheap and it's had a huge sell-off and a nice bounce back and i think there's further room to the upside and despite the move in the after market it's a good move here. check out shares of kohl's soaring almost 20% after they'll be returning items purchased on amazon they started testing this in chicago stores since then sales growth in chicago doubled in the rest of the country while new customers blew the rest of the country's stores out of the water. jeffrey weighed in on the news
5:22 pm
writing growth in the partnership illustrates to us that stores are needed even as online shopping becomes increasingly pervasive which begs the question if online giants like amazon need traditional bricks and mortar for their business, does that mean that retailers could be more valuable in the marketplace? >> bricks and mortar retailer, if amazon's converging to walmart, does the valuation of walmart come up? >> i mean, we talked about the whole foods deal a couple of years ago and it seems like what are they doing here? it starts to make a lot of sense. you look at kohl's and 12 1/2 times, and that's probably right in the middle and 20% shortage and everybody's been betting and it's up 11% today, to your point. this probably has room to the upside as well and you will retest levels that you last saw last summer which is north of 80 bucks and from october 2017 to july 2017 at kohl's and traffic at those experimental stores where they're taking amazon
5:23 pm
returns are up 13.5% 13.5%. >> absolutely. it's a brilliant idea and incredibly creative idea for kohl's to do this and it's a great idea for amazon and they go to a bricks and mortar store without having to buy it part of it was to have a distribution center and now they've got to return something that they didn't have to buy, so i think it helps amazon. to your point about the earnings and it's hard to compare amazon's rating or p-e ratio with anything else >> if you backed up all of the other pieces i would imagine an even core amazon retail, its valuation would be higher than the other bricks and mortar retails no matter what it is >> yeah, i don't know what >> right >> is this a way for bricks and mortar retail that it's a retail play they didn't have to build out a new area they are further leveraging what
5:24 pm
they have to increase sales. >> you brought up walmart and target is doing it, as well and having its stores be want junota store and a distribution center, as well. i like target of the bunch of them and it also makes me wonder, god, jwm, nordstrom is trading terribly i know it's a different shopper. >> maybe they can have a partnership. >> that's a really good point and the problem is and we've been saying this for a long time and too many department stores are overstored here. it made sense for amazon targeting the certain customer who wants to buy online and return things to partner with a kohl's it may not make sense to partner with anybody like macy's and walmart bought jack for $3.2 million to build on the outside sales channel and we see it do with kasper and they're putting in beds in stock and all
5:25 pm
of these things will happen. all of these models and you will see a lot of mrshgs and a for the consumer brands over the next few years because i think you needed an omni channel strategy and that's why they spent years trying to do it and hopefully they're doing it well and they may be left holding the bag because they think they have the proper omni channel partnership. >> for more on what it could mean for the rest of the space head over to cnbc.com. still ahead, check out shares of snap and we'll tell you what the ceo said on the call that sent shareholders running i'm lia messlee, you're watching cnbc first in money worldwide. much more coming up next for your heart...
5:26 pm
your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory.
5:27 pm
prevagen. healthier brain. better life. so, every day, we put our latest technology and unrivaled network to work. the united states postal service makes more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country.
5:28 pm
welcome back to "fast money," snap and after-hours rally and let's go to julia boorstin they're talking about snap changes including more content lenses and the service ad platform saying these changes not only helped this quarter and also lay the groundwork for more growth >> while these early results are promising, improvements and performance in the user attention will take time to compound and the impact are top-line metrics there are billions of android devices in the world that now have access to an improved snap chat experience and we look forward to being able to grow the snap chat community in new markets. >> spiegel stressing snap's unusual reach among valuable demographics think snap ads can now reach more 13 to 34-year-olds than instagram can in the u.s with the growing engagement across content in discover and
5:29 pm
also its augmented reality filters saying that that translates into ad dollars >> we have also seen that our growing reach and engagement among millenians and gen z is an important different yaiator and they're still in the process of developing the brand loyalties and are difficult to engage on other platforms or with traditional advertising formats. >> spiegel also mentioning the potential opportunities to use augmented reality in new ways including for shopping that sounds like it could be valuable for advertisers of course, there is another social stock soaring today on better-than-expected results, twitter shares gaining over 15%, 15.5% after this morning's earnings which beat expectations also reporting stronger than expected daily user growth like snap, twitter showing that changes to its platform are working including making twitter more user friendly and all of
5:30 pm
that paying off. it was a busy day for twitter ceo jack dorsy aey and he met wh the president of the united states jack had a constructive meeting with the president at his invitation and they discussed twitter's commitment to protecting the health of the public conversation ahead of the 2020 u.s. elections and an effort's under way to respond to the opioid crisis. so certainly a busy day for twitter. >> thank you, julia. julia boorstin in los angeles. snap up 120% or so so far this year alone versus a twitter. >> think you go twitter. i don't think you have to buy it tomorrow, but if you look at what they're doing, what they're doing is working and we're seeing the daily average users increase and that's what the entire things are valued off of. given the two i would sell my snap and buysome twitter >> dan >> i think it's what julia said that's very important and what evan spiegel said about the demographic. snap is only expected to have
5:31 pm
$1.5 billion in sales and it's a rounding error on facebook and 70 billion which is largely advertising. so to me, i still think snap was down from the ipo price and this was a unique, social property and it will be valued at much more and up 120% and the stock is lucky to be unchanged this year because there was a lot of high expectations in the print >> the android reboot was very important and a whole new. >> you've been all over twitter and we have to give you credit >> i appreciate that that's nice. one of the things we said was when twitter took their medicine a couple of quarters ago and said this daily active user stuff is not for us anymore and they finally bit bullet and we said the move to 30, 30 1/2 that will be it and you'll regret not buying it here and that proved to be correct. in terms of snap it's a north america story without question just look at the numbers
5:32 pm
>> average per revenue per user. >> crushed $2.75 and it was 2.50 arpu, is not good. and the rest of world would say breakout this thing is a monster because quite frankly this was a really good quarter so i think you can stay with snap it will be key in terms of the international growth >> that's why i brought it up. i was going to ask dan that, actually it was up a tiny bit in the after market and do you think in the comments regarding instagram -- listen, i think facebook is totally fine and we had roger on and we were discussing this and i think earnings expectations in 2019 are supposed to be flat, okay? flat, while sales are supposed to be up 24% i think you will probably see a re-rating in their etf for 2019 and the stock probably moves higher.
5:33 pm
>> are you worried about instagram based on what snap said >> not that the pie is shifting. i am long. a little nervous about tomorrow. always am. >> let's get a check on another earnings, texas instruments seeing a reversal after hours and we'll tell you what is behind that move and plus the s&p 500 back at record highs and despite the rally a handful of stocks are seeing the bear market moves the traders will weigh in when "fast money" returns. internet that puts you in charge.
5:34 pm
alright boys, time to eat. that handles anything. [ crowd cheering ] that protects what's important.
5:35 pm
and reaches everywhere. this is beyond wifi. this is xfi.
5:36 pm
welcome back to "fast money," stocks closing are at a rally and down more than 20% from their highs bob pisani is at the nyse to break this all down. hi, bob. >> hello, melissa. you can't have all winners and about 10 name, 50 names are still down and even with a rally and surprisingly large number are significantly off their 52-week highs. take a look here activision and blizzard have seen sharp declines in the key games while call of duty has seen flatter sales that's a big problem though it is expanding across mobile platforms and china. biogen down 40% from its old highs and the stock plunged late
5:37 pm
last month following the decision to end the late-stage stud evan alzheimer's treatment that did not produce the desired result and they report tomorrow. general electric gave weaker than expected 2019 guidance and that was back in march and they mentioned a challenging year ahead and americanairlines hav extended cancellations of flights involving 737 max jet and american express they got killed on concerns of global groekts slowdowns and they proceeded to miss earnings when they reported last month. there are a lot of fundamental reasons these stocks are weak and individual stock stories and elsewhere, other names down 30% for their 52-week highs and halliburton and schlumberger they still haven't recovered and big retail nameses like macy's and nordstrom and l brands there's definitely damage out there. melissa, back to you >> thank you bob pisani at the nyse are any of these names a buy at
5:38 pm
this point bob gave you a plethora of names. >> i have to go from bob's list and i had to be paying attention to bob and i was biogen, is biogen just a non-entity no biogen is more than an alzheimer's project. i get it alzheimer's, the holy grail. nobody has figured it out out there and biogen hasn't either and they report tomorrow after the bell and whatever forwar forward-looking guidance is critical and i think at $230 the valuation is too cheap now that being said, not only did they do it to themselves with the alzheimer's project and obviously health care in general has been getting bludgeoned and biogen out of all of the games he bik sipick side most interesg they announced disappointing earnings and the stock is mituc higher from there and if they were to fix tnt express which
5:39 pm
was a disastrous acquisition for them and this goes back to a prior multiple and fedex is to me the most attractive >> karen, on the valuation of all names it's the most attractive and it's an example of a company that's not just the tee, they're facing headwinds here and the dollar situation is an issue, too. the fact that the stock is up 15% since it reported in march disappointing earnings tells you that there's a risk to the down side here because there's probably one more guide down in my opinion when you think about it yes, it's cheap and they're try tock deal with some of these internal things and the external headwinds and i don't know why you would buy it. >> oh! i think it's a trade it's a value trap sort of gain >> was that when the duck flies? >> it's also a matter -- >> the market is much higher it's not just about -- my point
5:40 pm
is it's a matter of time and i do believe that and it will come back before the next report upon >> which is a sal you here >> i don't know if you would call it a value and atvi and that one i liked the best because you look at what's going on in this industry, and we know that it is like a movie studio, right? you are only as good as your last product and your last movie that you put out there, and the last game that you put out i think that's all in for the stock and i don't think the ceo will take this laying down and that's the one i like. >> coming up, texas instruments seeing a huge reversal after hours and look for the chip space. we've got the details next it was a year afterertr po earnings this week and we're about to plunge more than 50%. feel bearish when "fast money" returns. cfa charterholders have the investment expertise
5:41 pm
to unlock opportunities other advisors might not see. learn what a cfa charterholdr can do for you at therightquestion.org
5:42 pm
the lexus es. every curve, every innovation, every feeling. a product of mastery. lease the 2019 es 350 for $389 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.
5:43 pm
welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert on texas instruments seeing a big reversal after hours josh lipton has details. >> on that call, executives talked about the weakness in demand across almost all markets and analog revenue declined 2% and embedded processing revenue that was under pressure, as well the company's cfo offering history as a potential guide take a listen. >> we believe that after ten quarters of year on year growth, the weakness we are seeing is primarily due to the semiconductor cycle. we have just completed our
5:44 pm
second quarter on year on year decline for t.i. if you look at history, cycles are always different, but typically the industry would have four to five quarters of year on year declines before year on year growth resumes. we're not trying to forecast the cycle, but simply offer some historical perspective >> so the cfo there melissa trying to offer a potential timetable for when the turn comes and we should mention equipment grew 30% benefitting from 5g, so is t.i. a smart way to play a 5g rollout and i caught up with hans from rosenblat and he caught a reasonable way and there is an opportunity there for the company, he says, but remember the focus for t.i. is autos and industrials and net 5g under the communication that's equipment umbrella and the strategic area of focus for the company melissa, bah being melissa back to you. demand weakness will start in the second half of last year and continued into the first quarter
5:45 pm
of this year, and did you comment on how that's progressed since then >> they did say the weakness continued and as you heard the cfo there and obviously trying to get some gauge about when the turn comes and you heard the cfo use maybe history as a potential timetable there saying two quarters and we'll see how that works out. >> josh, thanks. josh lipton in san francisco >> yeah. so the cfo said four to five is the typical revenue decline, consecutive quarter is down and i think street estimates if you look at q4 is up 1% year over year so the street has to come down a little bit and here is a stock trading 23 times this year and it's probably expensive relative to some of its peers in the s&p. here you go. >> operating profits and analog down 7% year over year and that's their big one, right? and he mentioned josh embedded processing down 24% year over year and that's pretty significant numbers and at 21 times forward earnings it's not cheap and when you do this for a
5:46 pm
long time and i looked at dan and said do you see what i see and the double pop from last june spot on. you armchair technicians out there, take a look at that sucker, as well. >> you look across the desk and he thought -- that's not what i said i didn't say anything about it, do you see what i see? >> dan knows a lot >> anyway, speaking of the 5g rollout, josh mentioned that as being one area of strength and the chip stocks may be the best way of the phenomenon and mitch great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> as josh mentioned some companies have exposure to 5g like a texas instruments, but may not be concentrated and strong in those areas and how should we think about the space in terms of chip company exposure to 5g >> i would break down the 5g
5:47 pm
exposure and the first time would be the broad-based 5g and the most well known and they have 20% of the revenue getting exposed to 5g and the second one is the least well known and analog devices, but 12 to 12.5% of their business will be 5g and effectively have a near monopoly on it and it will be the top five players and huawei, samsung, nokia and erickson. secondly in the could group i would buy the smart foern side and you qualcomm, skyworks and are kwefsh on it will be ziel ifr xilinx and adi and that is a test and instrumentation company for 5g, and that's not focused on the data center side and the data center side and the
5:48 pm
smartphone would be broadcom and the key. >> i know you don't cover xilinx right now, mitch, and i don't want to put you in the bad spot and it's up 60% so far this year and how much of that is anticipation that it's exposed to 5g and that would be the next big play and we want to be in xilinx >> i think a lot of it is there and i think the better play is the 5g items that people are not aware of so i think that within my co universe and the cadence that are rarely talked about you cannot make a 5g chip without them and those are going up 40%, 50% this year and there's more is up side for both of them and the second one would be adi and what t.i. said they're seeing better growth and who has the most exposure in 5g and it's adi by a wide margin and those are two or three interesting stocks and xilinx is the best pure play and it's hard to mention how
5:49 pm
much is in there for someone trading at 25 times earnings >> it does make the parts that go into the chips needed for 5g, in terms of the other players where they say we don't know who's going to win yet cisco, qualcomm, when is it time to say we're on the cusp of knowing and it's time to get in. >> you'll know when the phones start coming out, right? those are the hand set exposed ones and sky works are heavily exposed to apple, for example. so once you start to get the i fix buildout of the apple iphone or the samsung phones you'll know which tools they're using and you'll see one of the stocks move dramatically is you're really making a bet today on who's going to win. >> right versus if you go to adi and cadence and synopsis you're buying part of it no matter what happens. >> mitch, great to have you. thank you. >> guy, you've been a fan of
5:50 pm
xilinx for a long time mitch says it's in the stock what do you say? >> mitch might be right. it's a very expensive stock. it's been an expensive stock where will we be on thursday, by the way? we'll be at the cnbc stock drop. why did you mention that >> a year ago, i sat next to you and jim cramer and said someone should take zixilinx and nobody liss tones listens to me and we gotten t t braxton. >> you're not discovering anything new here and i'm a searle of all of them. >> coming up, look out below tesla shares down 20% this year and one better is betting the stock could plunge another 50% in the next few months and
5:51 pm
there's jim talking to the hasbro ceo catch that at the top of the hour much more "fast money" still ahead.
5:52 pm
5:53 pm
welcome back to "fast money," tesla shares barrels toward its earnings report tomorrow and traders are betting it could have some slamming the brakes dan has it at the plasma >> the stock has been atrocious over the past couple of months and it was one and a half that of calls today
5:54 pm
the options market is implying about an 8.5% move in either direction or about 22, 23 bucks here on average over the last four quarters and the stock has moved about 8% last quarter actually did not have much of a big move, but there was one trade in this name that doesn't see usually large spot trades that caught my eye today looking at the august expiration when the stock was trading at 263.60 and there was a bare of 2200 of the august 220/110 put spread and the trader can make up to $97 between 207 and 110 and that was a $2 million bet and the stock is down at 110 and down almost 60% on august expiration and let's go to the charts and we've been talking about this one a lot and it's been bouncing a lot of this support a couple of times over the last year and a half or so and the thing is
5:55 pm
obviously getting a lot of tension here at the 260 level. so obviously a very important support level. here's the chart since its ipo in 2010 here we know that that's the support here and we also know this was long term support down in the 150 area for years and years obviously, this trader making a bet that there is an air pocket down to those prior support levels >> in breaking the previous low. and i guess that would clear the way, and 170 and i'm not suggesting it goes there tomorrow and the next real level of support through the 249 level is about 175 and carter was confident in his assessment that this time it will not hold so kudos to cbw and kudos to dan nathan from the risk reversal. >> i don't know. it traded pretty well if you ask me >> it traded pretty well
5:56 pm
what do you mean by that it's benchmarked and the nasdaq composite was up 1 1/3% and this is up .4%. >> it's been down all year now all of a sudden and i wouldn't compare this to the market and the market's down 17% and bounced off those levels and it closed near the high of the day and it doesn't look that bearish to me and it seems like it will hold >> in fact, i'm not, but i think it's probably not a bad risk right here, right? you know where your stop out point is and i guess you have a gap at the 249 level and the risk reward basis, we know this was traded between 250 and 300 and for the last several years and i don't know if ittic br breaks this time ans a good risk to buy it here and friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time and up next, final trade well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman?
5:57 pm
hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
>> final tread time dan. >> snap, i didn't want to chase it, but if it's down too much i would buy it tomorrow. >> take a little bit off of the semi, fmh, sell that one >> karen >> fedex, i like it here, but one thing, when earnings come out don't feel a need to buy them before the call
6:00 pm
there are often interesting and worthwhile information to wait for. >> that's the more you know. >> a rainbow >> ebay is higher and it has room to go even ghhier >> that does it for us see you back here tomorrow "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me

81 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on