deals turn into trade winds for the economy? >> our outlook and my outlook is for -- is a positive one, a healthy one for the u.s. economy, for growth for the rest of this year and i would say that the basis for that really is consumer spending and business investment so if you look at consumer spend, you saw stronger retail sales, stronger motor vehicle sales in march and as i mentioned, the conditions, the broader economic fundamentals are strong in support of consumer spending that's more accommodative of high confidence readings, high levels of employment, wages going up, all those things are going to support consumer spending that's a significant part of the outlook this year. and business investment should also be positive in that sort of direction. in terms of the effect of trade

deals, i think the resolution of the uncertainty around these trade deals would be a positive for business sentiment we've been hearing from our business contacts a lot since the beginning of the trade negotiations that uncertainty is a concern for your product or if you export your product. then it's been a challenge for you. so that would be a positive. and, of course, the most of the gains, though, i would expect, from -- even from a successful trade negotiation, would come in over time. they wouldn't be the thing where you'd immediately feel big effects right away but they can be important over a longer period so that's, i think, that would be my expectation. and haven't seen the details of what's been negotiated >> don

>> don lee with the "l.a. times. getting back to inflation. can you talk about the factors holding down inflation, how significant they are and why you think those factors will pass. >> sure, i would just mention a couple i don't mean to diminish concerns about too low inflation, but i think there's good reason to think these readings are influenced by some transitory factors one that i would mention is portfolio management services which would tend to go down when asset prices go down with a lag. and so when asset prices went back up, probably they'll be a swing around there, positive contribution other ones that get mentioned are things like apparel and apparel prices were very, very low. there was a change in the methodology. and another one is airfares. there are many little things so we don't know until, again, until we see, but there's reason

to think those would be transient and would turn around. there are models that look at inflation different ways, like -- not in miles, but measures like the dallas trim mean it cuts off the big movements on the up side and down side and looks at just the mean movements in inflation of various product categories and service categories and it didn't go down at all it's at 2% it is at 2% now. so there's reason to think that these will be transient. we'll be watching very carefully to see that that is the case i would point to the case of cell phone services. many of you will remember in march of 2017, there was a very low reading of -- for cell phone services mobile phone services. and it was kind of a price war and it dragged down core inflation for a full year. but it did not look like something that would be

repeated and we kind of thought so and said so and then, sure enough, in 2018, we had those months of 2% inflation so again, we'll have to see here we're going to be watching, really, i'd like to say we're going to be watching inflation carefully to see these things are transient. and i'll say -- i'll end by saying we are strongly committed to the 2% inflation objective. >> nancy >> just following up nancy with market place. you are saying if inflation does stay low and these low inflation rates are not transient, you said a couple times you'll take that into account with monetary policy how specifically will you take that into account? >> yeah, it's hard to say because there's so many other variables. i mean, we -- ultimately, there are many variables to be taken into account, but that's part of our mandate. stable prices is half of our

mandate and we would be concerned, and we take it into account. >> so cutting interest rates would be -- >> i can't really be any more specific than what i've said >> jean? >> jean young with market news if the fed funds rate keeps rising, do you see room for another ioer adjustment, and then can you speak to any other strategies or tools that might be useful for keeping a ceiling on short-term interest rates there have been other ideas floated like the standing repo facility and targeting a different benchmark rate >> we'll keep to if we need to, and, as needed, we'll use our tools to keep the federal funds rate somewhere in the target range. we'll do that. don't expect -- we don't know.

the balance sheet is now -- the size of it is going to be driven by demand. and we're right at that point where we're starting to learn more and more about what the real demand for reserves is over the next few months. and so there is no template for this no road map. we just have to do it. that's why we're moving so very gradually. why we tapered the rolloff to only $15 billion in treasuries per month. effective, i guess, today, we're cutting the roll-off rate for treasuries in half just because we want to take our time and move gradually here. so that's that in terms of other tools, we are actually, i'm sure, at an upcoming meeting, we'll be looking at an idea of a repo facility i don't have any presupposition it's anything we'd do, but we'll be taking a look at it as a possible addition to our toolbox. i wouldn't say -- it would just be a way for us to do what we

do, which is to do a deep dive on it, think carefully about it. look at the pros and cons and different possible ways to do it and then go away and think about it and then probably come back and make a decision. but that's something we'll do at an upcoming meet, i would imagine. >> hannah? >> hannah lang, american banker. on the regulatory side, the fed and other bank regulators are said to be weighing all options for proposing a tool to revoke the volcker rule can you give us an idea how close they are to coming to a solution and what that would look like, whether it would be starting from scratch or making changes to the original proposal >> you know, we put out a proposal on volcker some time ago and got a lot of comments, and we're reviewing them carefully. i don't have a lot for you i know they're making great progress i don't have a date, though. in terms of what all it's going to be, it's not something i can say with any certainty yet

>> brian >> hi there. brian chung with yahoo! finance. given what you've said, bouncing back in the next gdp read, i'm wondering if you think that continued growth in economic activity might show some sort of underlying fundamental that could flag another overheating, for example, the median projection in the march meeting for gdp growth was 2.1 i'm curious about what you see going forward, if we continue to see strong gdp numbers >> well, we don't see any evidence of overheating. we see inflation -- close to 2% for most of last year so, really, no signs of overheating. if you look at the labor market, for a long time there have been anecdotal reports of shortages and difficulty in finding skills labor in that kind of thing. nonetheless, you have strong job

creation and wages moving up at a rate that is appropriate given inflation and given productivity, but not at all signaling any overheating at all. it's not higher than that rate that would incorporate both inflation and productivity so really not seeing signs of overheating at the moment. >> are wages ever going to get back above 4% in this cycle? if it's accelerating enough? >> yeah, in terms of wages getting over 4%, wages have moved up pretty steadily over the last five years and are now, as wages and benefits are now between 3% and 3.5%. just for the last couple of years, the biggest part of the

gains have come for people at the lowest end of compensation, which is kind of a welcome thing. you mentioned productivity productivity is really very difficult to predict no one has been able to predict it successfully. so i won't really try but i will say this productivity was very, very low in the wake of the crisis for six or seven years last year, we had 1.9% productivity, which is much higher i don't know if that level can be sustained, but we really -- it's driven to some extent by technological developments and really the defusion of technology through the economy and it's very hard to predict. i think it's positive. in fact, i'll mention, if we're talking about the supply side. labor force participation. really, there's been a significant positive supply side development over the last year and a half between the up tick in labor force participation which goes back, you know, several years but also

productivity and that does suggest more room to grow. it suggests a less tight economy. a less, you know, maybe part of the explanation for lower inflation. >> thank you >> thanks very much. >> fed chairman jay powell finishing up his meeting he did sound very upbeat on the state of the economy did note, though, inflation has slowed or declined welcome to "closing bell." sara eisen, wilfred frost. word of the day is transient i think he said transient more than patient and that's important for the markets because it's a signal the federal reserve thinks this lower inflation is temporary and it's going to rise again if you were looking for the fed to make a move, a cut, for

instance, like the president has been calling on gha ing oing on low inflation, fed chair powell didn't signal that because he said it's transient. >> to the right-hand side of that we did see initially a little up tick for equities because the fed release d at least at this point to inflation being softer a slight dovish interpretation of that. and that was undone by those comments that the inflation. clear to see the same reaction dollar briefly slipping and then recovering intraday again for the same reason, and yields also doing the same slight move lower initially and then as chair powell was talking and making clear that he is really happy to stay where he is no closer to a cut and yields recovered. >> definitely not closer to a

hike the economy does not look to be overheating, and, in fact, coming back to the fact that inflation is moving below target something he said is a surprise but again, transient or transitory such fed speak >> exactly right let's bring in our panel to react. tom kennedy from jpmorgan private bank meghan chu and rick santelli rick, what was your take on the news conference there? >> i really think jay powell is doing a great job. and i think transient is a good word to use when you don't have preconceived notions about what you're going to do in future meetings you have to have an opinion. you have to be able to answer questions. you are the head of the biggest central bank in the world. indeed, the idea that he doesn't have a game plan he's not on auto pilot i thought he definitely handled most of the questions. and when it comes to inflation, it really is a confusing dynamic. transient may fit. maybe it doesn't i'd always point to the notion

that whether it's japan with 2%, europe with 2%, the u.s. with 2%, there's really nothing magic about 2% and in many countries that are well below 2%, they're still very stable in the price activity today was all about the yield curve, wilf. at the lows of this session, 220 at the two-year intraday right after the fed announcement 2.45 then everything reversed now that is sitting at 20 basis points we've had a heck of a range on the yield curve. and it makes sense the inflation questions excited the very short end and the notion about growth and some of the other issues more exciting in the long end. suffice it to say, i don't see anything looking at the yield curve that gives me any clues regarding the fed but certainly gives me clues regarding the notion the market seems to be pretty happy, close to unchanged. all maturities but 30-year bonds are up in yields slightly on the

session. >> did the fed, did the chairman say anything that would meaningfully knock the market off these record highs >> i don't think he said anything that would scare markets, which is good, considering how battle scarred people are from december but i may have misheard, but i felt he made some sort of positive comments about the labor market and i thought they were bullish, actually >> saying that -- >> well, just saying that there's conditions and things they are now starting to realize are not causing wage inflation and one of the things was participation rates picking up and it's a point we've been running about that if you norlize participation rates it's more like 7%. there should be a lot of slack in the labor markets >> tom kennedy, any direct market impact? >> i don't think so. it's clear the fomc really wanted to do as little as possible in this meeting in the statement, you have only mark to mark changes in growth and inflation outlook and in the

press conference, powell had no appetite to talk through an insurance cut or any real financial stability concerns he wanted to move past this quickly. what we're seeing in market pricing is a recalibration of how likely that insurance cut is offer the coming months. >> we'll delve into that if you are just joining us, we want to catch you up on highlights from jay powell's news conference. have a listen. >> we reviewed economic and financial developments in the united states and around the world and decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged overall, the economy continues on a healthy path, and the committee believes the current stance of policy is appropriate. our base line view remains that with the strong job market and continued growth, inflation will return to 2% over time recent data from china and europe shows some improvement. and the prospect of a disorderly brexit has been pushed off for now. some asset prices are somewhat elevated but not extremely so. we don't think about short-term

political considerations we don't discuss them. and we don't consider them in making our decisions >> is it time to address low inflation through policy >> if we did see a persistent inflation running persistently below, then that's something the committee would be concerned about and something we'd take into account in setting policy >> let's get reaction from steve liesman who was in that room and asked the key question, steve, that everyone else tried to go for as well. what do you do about the low inflation? >> you know, sara, there was something that was a little amiss in he whole sequence of things i don't know if any other panelist picked up on this, but the statement which came out at 2:00 for the first time noted that core inflation was down below 2% and that kind of gets everybody excited and moves you to the side that expected a cut then we ask the question, mr. chairman, in inflation is below your target, what are you going to do about it and he said, the core inflation

thing is a transient issue why wasn't that in the statement is the first question i had. i don't understand it because the fed has done that before when you've had a transient issue come in. the fed has put that in the statement. i looked up the two areas he talked about which was financial services they were down 3.7%. and there was, as we reported the last couple weeks, a change in the methodology so i think that's significant. but the idea that the fed is not as concerned about the decline in core inflation as perhaps we thought from the statement or perhaps other officials have made it seem, i think that's a significant development for a market that has been on the side of the vote that's been tilting towards a cut. and that's really why you have this kind of violent reaction back the other way well, wait a second now. maybe they're not so close to a cut. and that's the right way to think about it in that i think the fed is far from cutting rates right now. >> so, steve, you are saying you

are not expecting that extra cut. what's your take on all of this today and does it lead you to alter your bullishness on the equity market or not >> yeah, i think what we learned from chair powell was basically reassurance that what we heard from the median dot moving down to zero hikes for 2019 was more about giving the fed optionality than about signaling the next move was going to be a cut and we actually think that they'll probably remain on hold for now. i thought one of the key things that powell said was that there is no risk of inflation and the economy overheating at this point which, to me, signals they're going to be patient for longer, but our base case is still the next move is more likely to be a hike than a cut, though i think the bar is high on either end for any type of a move in the near term. as we look at markets, what we are hoping for is actually good data, good economic data, not great.

that keeps us in this slower but stable rate of growth allows the economic expansion to continue without the fed having to come in and slam the brakes on the recovery >> just went to the cambridge dictionary for wilfred looking up the meaning of transient. lasting for only a short time, temporary. so, steve, how long can inflation be below target and keep missing forecasts to be transient to keep the fed on hold >> now it's good i was an english major as part of my training to be an economics reporter there's a lot of semantics in that the fed never really hit its target of 2% except for 2012 but it has been close. this year was bumping up against. the fed is okay as long as it's not persistently dropping. and i just want to get back to

what a guest said earlier. i think there may be an adjustment coming for the market if you look at the way the fed funds market has been priced it's had that priced in. and maybe that cut ain't coming, then there is perhaps some volatility i don't know if it goes lower on that it may be -- a next move is a hike 58% of our respondents think the next move will be a hike in 2020 >> tom, if we get that adjustment in the market and fails to price in a cut, do you think equity markets cease to keep hitting new highs >> i think the real question to ask is with all these hedge funds sitting on dry powder, hedge funds, brokerage cash near record levels and retail has sold money, are they going to turn more bearish if the fed is neutral and doesn't cut? i think it's cyclical momentum picks up, i think this dry

powder gets put to work in year end. you still have a bullish setup in the second half for equities. >> tom kennedy, how much of this record rally is just based on fundamentals, an improving economy that looks better than we thought, better earnings, and how much is this new posture from the patient fed >> i think it's mostly the latter >> the fed >> i think it is mostly the fed. the market overexuberance, you've been paid to fade that. volatility is very low it's been predicated on a fed doing an insurance cut which it could argue they did in the '90s but regularly doesn't do and powell today really had no appetite to feed that discussion anymore with volatility this low, it seems it's a one-way street to me and i think likely volatility will pick up and i think risk is predicated on a world where the fed is -- >> you're shaking your head. >> let's take a step back. if someone said, oh, markets are

hitting new highs because the fed paused and had a 20% rally, i think most of us would say that doesn't make any sense, especially given hedge funds are sitting on high cash they've been shorting this rally i think what we're seeing is maybe a market sort of coming back to trend line because returns are still below like 10%. so the market is essentially coming back to trend and i think of economic momentum if it picks up, that's where new highs can be >> megan, does this alter your preference between u.s. and overseas equities at all >> well, actually, this most -- the chair powell's comments and the fomc meeting not necessarily, but we have grown, i would say, less pessimistic about non-u.s. equities, specifically within the developed international space. one of the things that chair powell has commented on in the past is those crosscurrents. those international cross currents, whether it be trade or brexit or slowing growth and

recessionary risks in europe and japan. and i would say we certainly not calling or signaling for the all clear at this point when it comes to those, but we are seeing some improvement there. and one important transmission mechanism to be paying attention to is the dollar so to the extent the market is pricing in less of a chance of a fed cut and more of a chance that they would be hiking rates, while you have improving global growth dynamics outside of the u.s., those are important things to be thinking about the dollar reacted kind of whipsawed back to strengthening after powell's comments about the inflation outlook being more transitory and we think there's a risk the dollar could strengthen, but improving growth dynamic outside of the u.s. does help mitigate that and would improve the outlook. >> sara -- >> hold on one second. rick's got the next comment. >> you know, what i find important is that there's

probably going to be a couple central banks that are going to be easing. and even though everybody has gotten all happy about europe and other parts of the world that have been slowing, i think we shouldn't lose sight of the relative value aspects of stimulus all stimulus is fungible even though our central bank isn't moving, others may continue to hold pat with a lot of stimulus and maybe even more stimulus moving ahead into the u.s. markets and capital that moves with the touch of a button that as a stimulative effect here as well >> what were you going to say, steve? >> i want to make two points there was not a direct question about the president's comments in this press conference i wonder if powell now has all the journalists trained to know that he's not answering that question i think that's -- the second thing is totally irrelevant to monetary policy, but for the first time that i know of under powell in the statement, he is listed there as chair, as is john williams vice chair and not

chairman so that's something to note. >> you mean they're trying to be more egalitarian >> we didn't ask about it. but previously he had been chairman in the statement. >> and janet yellin was chair? >> that's orrect >> interesting >> thanks, steve, for that tidbit >> a little trivia >> megan, rick santelli and steve liesman at the fed we've got a little less than 40 minutes -- 34 minutes to go before the closing bell. look at the major averages we did get a mini sell-off on the fed ultimately we'll see where we land in about a half an hour the dow is down 65 points. s&p 500 down 0.3%. we're still near record highs on the s&p 500. nasdaq is flat today after the break, much more on jay powell's testimony reaction from frederic michkin

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take control of your wifi with xfinity xfi. let's roll! now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity xfi gives you the speed, coverage and control you need. manage your wifi network from anywhere when you download the xfi app today. welcome back to the "closing bell." we're on record close watch once again for the s&p. here's where we stand now, down 0.3% so it doesn't look likely. the nasdaq flat. dow down 0.2%. things would look worse if not for apple as well which puts the tech sector up 0.4%. other than that, almost all the sectors in the red here are other stocks to watch today. estee lauder reported a beat on earnings powered by high demand for luxury skin care brands. that stock touched an all-time high today and is now trading

lower throughout the session steadily losing that initial positive momentum. fiat chrysler posted a repo report it has slipped 2% today. the federal reserve finishing its two-day meeting this afternoon with federal reserve chairman jay powell just wrapping up his news conference moments ago. joining us with their fresh takes, jim grant and freder frederic michkin rick, the headline appears to be the federal reserve is still patient. is watching that lower inflation but thinks it's transitory do you agree with that take? >> i think it's a reasonable ta take i think the key issue is the fed wants to look at the data and people were very worried that the fed might want to cut rates

because the economy is weakening. we had movements in data i think the we point from the federal reserve's viewpoint is they want to wait and see and they don't want to be whipsawed. they don't want to rush to judgment, lower interest rates and then realize they have to raise them again and the way i think about this right now is the inflation threat is not completely gone. it's true we have low inflation numbers. but i've done a lot of research on the phillips curve. it's not dead at all it's hibernating it could come back and they also have to watch out for situations with the tightness in labor markets. it may be something that could cause inflationary pressures in the future, even though it doesn't look like that's happening. >> the inflation threat has not gone away. the deflation threat, how are you thinking about that? which is more likely >> i think that we're basically evenly balanced right now and that's what the fed statement is reflecting that we've had some

numbers which are actually on the low side in terms of inflation but the economy keeps growing very steadily and that it's very -- they are basically sort of where they want to be in terms of where we are in terms of output and unemployment and where we'd like to be in terms of inflation we're not far away, and that's a good time to be saying we should wait and see let's see how the data evolves >> jim grant, market implications for stocks, bonds or both on the back of today's announcement and news conference >> none. >> none? >> they said they'd do nothing what i hear -- >> a green light to keep buying stock? >> more to do with the individual merits. i think that buying stocks has more to do with the individual merits of a security than with the proannouncement of the federal reserve chair. >> look what happened since the fed -- the market took off. >> correct few of us would know the name of

the federal reserve chairman, let alone follow his utterance listening to this what i thought is how much the world needs steven moore someone to ask, are you sure about this everyone seems to agree we need inflation. to me it would be no stranger if the national institutes of health came and said we're in favor of measles why do we need 2% inflation? >> we don't need it. we want stable inflation at a lower rate >> why >> you want deflation and stagnant -- >> i would like stable prices but that's stable has nothing to do with a persistent rate of inflation. i'm just asking why -- >> but i think ultimately, the guide is to have low and stable inflation which they have to settle on a number so expectations are set which happens to be 2% >> you are exactly describing the state of being of play today. but you have to go back very far before you come across federal reserve people and economists who said inflation is something we must stamp out in all its

manifestations we have come around today collectively to the view we need 2% inflation because janet yellen said we need 2% 2% is a recipe for the evisceration of capital over time >> we have a veteran here. frederic is going to disagree. >> i couldn't disagree more with jim. >> well, try, ric. >> i think there are two issues. we talk about 2% inflation number there are some upward biases to the measured inflation rate. and one of the reasons that we think 2 is not a terrible number is because we think the actual inflation rate is somewhat lower than that. that's one important point second important point is that deflations are very costly to the economy and, particularly, we have a situation which we just experienced which is when you have a low inflation number, that you actually are more likely to hit what we call the effective lower bound where

nominal interest rates can't go below zero when you get a shock in the economy you want some kind of cushion. now my view is that greenspan had it exactly right when he said price stability isn't something -- you know it when you see it it's when the inflation numbers are stable they're low enough so that people are not particularly concerned or spending a lot of time trying to figure out what inflation is in terms of making decisions about production and that 2% number is quite reasonable along those lines there are people who actually think we should have a higher inflation goal because the issue of -- is quite dangerous i think that's going too far but this idea that a zero number on inflation is exactly what we should always shoot for, i think it's just a horrendous idea. it's something that i think central bankers have rejected. i also actually think that there's the case for higher inflation target is inappropriate, but this is a reasonable number. it's consistent with the greenspan definition, and you have to recognize that having

very low inflation rates or zero inflation rates means we're sometimes going to have deflation. that can be costly and the zero lower ban will happen much more often and that's the problem we've seen this in europe. negative interest rates. negative interest rates have very serious problems for banking institutions it's not the best solution to the problem. so having some cushion here actually makes some sense both because a cushion makes sense and also some biases to the inflation numbers anyhow >> your response >> why do we have interest rates as low as -- it might be because of 20 years of central bank manipulation to get us out of the dotcom bust we pressed the funds rate down to 1%. now the mortgage bubble. boom to get us out of the aftermath of the mortgage bubble we have a 0% funds rate and the clarity, the experts of the fed talk about the zero bound as if they had nothing to do with it.

this is the fruit of 20 years of ill-advised manipulations. >> where would you put interest rates today? >> wilfred, i would let them be discovered in the market like soybeans >> okay. so -- we could go down this rabbit hole, but -- >> we are. >> let's go back to stephen moore. you keep bringing him up diversity of views on the fed is good it will be -- it could be great to have an outsider with a different perspective, potentially a critical one two issues with that he said very disparaging things about women in the name of economics. he doesn't approve of the fact that they earn -- that their earnings have gone up and male earnings have gone down. it's a big problem for our economy. says there's potentially issues with familial stability as a result of women joining the workforce. these aren't mainstream economic views and they're deeply offensive. someone like that you want on the fed? >> i want someone who will ask

why. we need people who are not a part of the system and the fed is all in favor of diversity as long as it doesn't have anything to do with intellectual diversity they all say the same things >> rick in terms of -- >> go ahead. >> again, i think -- i don't want to focus on the issue of what he said about women from my viewpoint -- >> it's relevant >> no, it may be relevant but it's not the issue i would want to focus on. i think the issue is, do you feel somebody who has thought through carefully what monetary policy is all about? and i have my doubts on this this is a person who very strongly advocated for the fed to raise interest rates during a period when, in fact, the economy was very weak. there were people actually who had the same view who were fomc participants they were wrong and they were

continually wrong. one of the achievements of ben bernanke was let them dissent because they'll say something wrong and let them say something that we can basically ignore this viewpoint the fed has gotten things wrong for 20 years is just plain crazy. the fed has done a very good job in monetary policy but with one big problem which was that they did not worry about financial stability issues and that's a problem of not just the fed but the entire profession. but we had a situation of very low, stable inflation rate business cycle that was very moderate and then the one thing that we missed out on was thinking harder about financial stability. and that's actually not just a monetary policy issue. i would think very little of this is monetary policy issue. it's just that we got some things very wrong and we need to think very hard about how we improve the way we do policy to prevent a financial crisis from occurring. that's one thing that's a problem with some of the views that steve moore has a second issue is that this view

of the gold standard is a great thing. and jim has been somebody that's pushed on this we've been in debates about this but if you think about a commodity standard or gold standard, during the episode going through the crisis that inflation, this commodity price was going up through june to july of 2008 that's when they peaked. the fed should have been raising rates to move more toward the commodity standard that would have been not only the wrong policy but potentially disastrous we could have had a great depression so my view here is that i do want diversity i wished that marvin who has very different views on things and we fought all the time about them, would have added diversity to the fed i want somebody who understands monetary policy, has thought hard about it, written about it in a sensible way and is not polemic about it i don't think that, on this issue alone, that stephen moore

has a great record in terms of his policy positions on this >> the political again is another issue, but from my viewpoint, as a technocrat, i really want people who will be -- provide diversity but want to think things through. so if you say things that people think are crazy, as a member of the board you have zero impact and there are a lot of people who -- >> so jim, we'll give you the last word. looking at session lows as we wrap up this debate. take your pick more gold standard you got criticized there a few times. >> i'm not talking about an individual i'm talking about a fresh point of view which will begin and end with a question and a question mark at the end of the question. i think that the fed is a closed

system, and it shouldn't be. >> we'll leave it there, guys. thank you, jim and frederic. we should point out the markets have fallen over the course of the last half hour session lows for all three indices, down 0.3% for the dow 100 points or so s&p down 0.5%. nasdaq down 0.2% no record all-time highs in sight for today's session. up next, it's tapped out we'll tell you why a beer company is dropping sharply today. and we're expected to get pricing for beyond meat's ipo. we've got the details coming up on "closing bell." i like to make my life easy.

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welcome back to "closing bell." i made my way over to post 5 watching allergan. the stock is a percent or so lower. the news on the day is the company shareholders actually voted down a nonbinding proposal to split the roles of chairman and ceo. this is considered a victory for

ceo and chairman the proposal was from apaloosa management trying to split the roles. 61.3% of shareholders backed saunders and, of course, that wasn't exactly seen as a broad victory. the stock is down 40% over the last two years and there have been questions over the strategy. raising the fact that this company has made a lot of deals but raising some questions about what is in the pipeline. overall, though, shareholders completely voting that down. saunders will remain chairman and ceo. wilfred? >> molson coors. it's down a healthy 7% reported numbers earlier missed on eps. missed on revenue. there were some adverse impacts on that. the volumes were very disappointing. relative to expectations it was soft pretty much everywhere. behind expectations, down in

canada down in the u.s. compare that to heineken that's reported a week ago. it's at record highs back to 4.3% year on year growth to volumes and volumes compared to caps 4.7% decline and plays out in the shares as well. not just today over the last 12 months molson coors is down 16% heineken up. so some serious stock specific issues there near session lows. down 0.6% for the s&p. over 100 points on the dow lots of earnings though still to come after the close can th cngathae the sentiment ahead of tomorrow? our reporters will preview what to watch in those earnings reports coming up.

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welcome back to the "closing bell." just nine minutes left of trade. we're at session lows. or just about session lows the dow down 132, or 0.5%. s&p down 0.6%. this would mark its worst day since around april 9 nasdaq down. russell down 0.8%. any expectations of dovishness coming out of the fed meeting have evaporated, and we have the tech sector propped up by apple outside of that declines for almost all of the sectors.

>> time for an update to our "closing bell" earnings scorecard. 305 s&p 500 companies have reported 76% of them have beat earnings per share estimates while 17% missed and only 7% have matched. earnings per share tracking for about a half a percent increase over q1 last year while revenues are tracking for a 5% bump will today's earnings change the picture? let's drill down on the reports. jon fortt has the one key thing to watch from qualcomm diedre has square. jon? >> the thing to watch from qualcomm isn't even about this quarter. it's the guide for next quarter when the first revenues from this apple settlement will start rolling in this quarter they expect eps and revenues to come in at the midpoint of the range qualcomm gave 71 cents on $4.8 billion in revenue. that said, the stock has

rocketed just over 50% since the settlement was announced two weeks ago. some investors might be hunting for a reason to take profits so watch that qtc line with the company. guys >> jon, thanks diedre bosa, what to watch in square's report? >> square is still among the hot payment stocks up 30% year to date it had a rough few months at the end of 2018. investors will be dissecting the amount of payments processed on its platform they want to see if the pace of growth can continue and if square is still getting larger sellers onto its platform. subscription and services has been driving growth. can that continue? and as usual, guidance will be critical the street is expecting adjusted eps of 8 cents on revenue of $478 million guys >> thank you josh lipton watching fitbit this afternoon. josh >> here's what we expect from fitbit, a loss of 22 cents on

revenue of $259.7 million. d.a. davidson's tom forte will make a beeline for unit growth sees them selling 2.3 million wearable devices should apple's strength in wearable spook fitbit bulls? forte says, no, they sell very different price points he argues they are playing in very different markets wilf, back to you. we will be coming back with the closing countdown. just under six minutes left of trade. the fed deciding to leave rates unchanged saying economic activity is rising at a solid rate coming up, reaction from doubleline's jeffrey sherman in a cnbc exclusive interview on what to do with this market. 'lbe55wn 1 wel back. kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin

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but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. three minutes until the close. take a look at what happened to the dow. it really is falling here into the close. session lows down 140 points you can see it was positive most of the day even got a little bit of a bump when we got that statement from the fed saying they have sort of noted lower inflation. but it was the news conference for chairman jay powell said he saw the inflation downward pressure as transitory or temporary. that's really what sent stocks falling a little bit and really

have continued to tumble post press conference why? the market likes rate cuts and the market has been betting on rate cuts, as soon as the end of this year a transitory inflation picture suggests they're not in any hurry to do anything about it, i.e., cut rates. disappointing for some in the market let's see how the nasdaq is reacting let's go to courtney reagan. >> the action similar here at the nasdaq positive most of the session and a couple minutes ago right before the close, really losing the steam for the nasdaq dipping into negative territory. extending yesterday's losses also in danger here to break a five-week winning streak and the first back-to-back losses since march 22nd and 25th. the one big support here is still shares of apple, responsible for about 42 points on the nasdaq 100. that has pared back. shares of apple up about 5%. we have seen strength from names like facebook, too, and netflix, but that has pulled back here

into the close shares of alphabet, google, still weak after the earnings. among the weakest names at the bottom of the nasdaq 100, some earn,s pressure from willis towers watson and adp. back to you at the new york stock exchange >> let's have a look at the s&p 500 intraday chart which paints that same picture. down 0.7%. the dollar intraday chart better paints what happened in the minutia of the reaction from the fed decision and press conference because initially we did, in fact, have a dovish interpretation that led to selling of the dollar briefly, and then that move higher when we got a more hawkish interpretation which pulled stocks lower. let's have a look at the sectors and really only tech and real estate >> the problem the market has it's overbought. we sold off on how because the risk is to the down side stocks are very expensive.

we've gone up 50 points in the s&p in eight trading sessions. that's 500 dow points. historic highs right now i'm not surprised a bit of a sell-off because they didn't get the expected rate hike coming from the fed >> we're closing at session lows down 0.6% or 160 points on the dow. the russell down even more 0.9% that does it for "closing bell." sara, back to you. turned out to be the worst day for stocks in almost a month. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen wilfred frost rejoining me along with mike santoli. take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street. things were looking just dandy earlier in the day a new intraday session high for the s&p. and then fed chair jay powell, late-day sell-off on wall street ended up lower 0.75% lower for the s&p 500.

broad based. all sectors ended in the red except for real estate technology even popped into the red just late in the session nasdaq down about 0.5% the dow jones industrial average closing down 164 points. apeple the notable winner almost everybody else a loser. nike, microsoft, home depot. investors didn't get a clue one way or the other whether powell is leaning toward a hike or a cut. and there was a big sell-off at least into the close investors gearing up for another day of big earnings. qualcomm, square, fitbit and more set to report any minute. we'll bring you the numbers. full team coverage of all of those results, and we are here to analyze it. first, though, let's talk about what just happened to the market jeff sherman from doubleline and paul hickey from the spoke mike, what was it about jay powell that led to the sell-off?

>> first of all, a little dissonance between his statement. looking a little stretched but sentiment already getting comfortable. the fact he was not willing to kind of sound an alarm on low inflation and say the fed is prepared to try and do something about it that was it. the market is in this point of wondering how long this sweet spot can extend where you have good growth and also a patient and dovish fed they didn't get the dovish nod today. also a pattern of sell-offs in jay powell fed days. not every single one of them but on balance, it seems to be the way. >> one thing that i wonder, and this is not near the kind of reaction we saw last year, really, but will the market push the fed to cut interest rates like they pushed the fed to pause on interest rates? you could argue a lot of it was the market pressure and then we saw a complete u-turn. the fed said we're patient

>> not if we pull back just 0.75% from a record all-time high what's your take in terms of whether we need a rate cut in order to keep pushing to new highs or the market needs to expect a rate cut. >> the market has to make a mountain out of every mole hill. but coming into today, the market was pricing in up to two rate cuts by the january meeting. and the fed is on pause. so which way are we going to do? powell said he's not going the market's direction right now we're staying on the sidelines they upped their economic guidance that creates short-term noise but i think it wasn't necessarily the market that pushed the fed to pause. it was the economy that pushed the economy to pause data slowed down the ism was weak today still seeing solid growth. i don't necessarily think the market needs the fed to cut rates to keep going higher here. >> i guess the, jeff, the move in both the dollar and the bond

market today less pronounced than that final ghe20 minutes oo we saw in equities what was your take on those two asset classes' reaction to the fed today? >> yeah, well, the bond market was really reactive to mr. powell you had this really big rally in the front of the curve early on when they released the statement. but as mr. powell started answering questions, and it was really the question about inflation and the fact that they weren't really concerned about inflation right now, and it wasn't going to necessitate a rate cut, the bond market spiked back up. all moved between 8 and 12 basis points off their lows of the day. there was a really big move in that intrapress conference swing and that's what did the repricing. the market was asking for a rate cut. a lot of publicity about inflation being quite low. but i think what you see in powell this year is he's dusting off the playbook from mr.

bernanke as well as miss yellen where they're using this phrase of transitory when inflation misses to the down side. this is just patience from the fed. the market was looking for a cut, looking for more ways to contain the stimulus behavior. but given the economic data, it doesn't warrant at this point and so the front of the curve repriced during that speech. >> we've been hitting record after record, jeff do you guys at doubleline still think we're in a bear market >> well, it's hard to say you're in a bear market when you set an all-time high. that's usually the definition -- >> that's what i'm getting at. >> exactly so the answer is no from a standpoint of the technical definition you need something here for a catalyst for stocks to move higher either earnings need to kick up. we get a multiple expansion which some argued was the reason for the rate cut the fed would pander to that or acquiesce to that. at this stage, you'll need something stronger or some catalyst to get the equity

market strong at this level. we've rebounded as you quite have observed here and so from these levels, it's really hard to argue, too, with the economic data, asset prices which mr. powell himself did refer to in the press conference today, being quite high or at least not worrisome that ultimately the fed probably doesn't have a bias to tighten that's what he iterated is there's no bias. >> maybe it's earnings here. qualcomm numbers out let's get to jon fortt with that >> qualcomm has a beat on the top and bottom lines for q2. when it comes to revenue, the street was expecting $4.8 billion. qualcomm comes in at $4.98 billion. and looking for 71 cents they turn in 77 cents. on the guide, we don't quite have all the information that investors are going to want. on the guide, the range puts the revenue for q3 at $5.1 billion

at the midpoint. the street looking for closer to 5.2. eps at 75 cents nongap versus 97 cents the street is looking for. however, because this payment from apple that qualcomm is expecting would probably come in as a gap payment as opposed to nongap, it might take some commentary from management to clarify exactly what that part of the guide will look like. we'll see if we'll get that on the call or perhaps before when i expect to talk to steve mollikov in a few minutes. >> when it comes -- any comments on the deal with apple are going to be much bigger mover than the eps for one quarter. >> this massive repricing in response to that news already. it seems to me, however, it's accounted for and how that filters through the outlook, the market has already rushed to a point where that is largely baked in

>> when is that apple/qualcomm 5g phone coming? >> i think it's a matter of the market rushed to that moment and then we don't know i think that there's not an answer that we can get to. >> want to come back to the broader markets. felt you were going to weigh in on that, where you see the levels >> the best thing the market can look forward to historically is the fed doing nothing. if you look at the market performance, the best time for market returns after a fed meeting. it's when the fed has to come in and fix something by either raising or cutting rates, that indicates there's an issue that could troublg the markets. right now it's patient as can go they are in no rush to hike or cut rates. >> didn't the markets -- the market is pricing in now a fed cut for december >> it's pricing in by the end of the year there's a discrepancy there. you could see short-term noise

there as the narcet hmarket hase around to the view it isn't going to be a major drag on equities >> the bond market's implicit forecast is not really a prediction it's just a leaning in one direction. >> fitbit earnings are out josh lipton with those numbers >> sara, fitbit looking for a loss reports a loss of 15 cents versus an estimate of a loss of 22 cents revenue $272 million the street at $259.7 million q2, they are looking for a loss between 17 and 20 cents. loss of 16 cents there calling for revenue in q2 of 305 to $320 million versus expectations of $313 million for the year, they are guiding 1.52 to $1.58 billion street was at $1.56 billion. devices sold increased 36% year over year, 2.9 million the average selling price

decreased 19% year over year to $91 per device back to you. >> up 1.5% up 8% or 9% year to date still a long way from those levels they ipo'd at >> the stock has been flattened. people have walked away from this story, largely, and apple has a lot to do with that. even if you account for the net cash fitbit has, it's under a billion-dollar market value. also we've mentioned the forth quarter still matters more than others it's seasonal sales site >> fitbit up 1.7%. more on qualcomm jon fortt, what do you got >> a closer look at this release. it turns out the amount for q3 that qualcomm expects to receive from apple is recorded in here it says expect to record revenues resulting from the settlement of 4.5 to $4.7

billion in the third fiscal quart quarter. and that will be excluded from the nongap results so that's going to be a gap payment 4.5 to $5.7 billion in the third fiscal quarter that qualcomm will record from the apple settlement >> so the shares slipping off the back, down some 5% interesting in terms of whether this kind of comes -- to what level this comes through at. and that's weighing on the shares >> obviously, it's analysts and traders shoring up their forecast for what the guidancane implies based on how this payment is accounted for you almost never see a large cap stock, you have to reiterate this, have the move that qualcomm had on the apple deal there's a lot of back and forth within that that still doesn't change the overall story >> how about the move apple had today up 5%, even as the market

sold off into the close. kind of maintained that gain >> yeah, if you just look at apple, it was a great report hard to argue with what the report was last night. stock selling at a below market multiple to put a market multiple on it a $230 stock $260 if you rated it like a steck tock and like a consumer staples stock, it would be $245. so, i mean, there's a lot of arguments to be made that apple could be higher than it is right now. and they have cut down one-third of their float in the last six years. so -- and they are continuing to buy back stock it's really hard to argue with what they're doing >> square results are out. deidre bosa has those for us >> jack dorsey's payment processor getting slammed in the afterhours down as much as 8%. this mostly on weak guidance, but the company beat on the top and bottom lines adjusted eps coming in at 11 cents. that's 3 cents higher than

expected revenue exceeding forecasts. $489 million versus $478 million expected here are the soft spots. gross payments volume. this is a critical metric for investors. it shows the amount of payments processed on the platform coming in slightly lower than expected. $22.6 billion versus $22.8 billion expected so a small miss here very important metric. q2 guidance also a sore spot eps and revenue looking light. the company forecasting adjusted eps between 14 and 16 cents. and revenue between 545 and $555 million. these are both lower than the street was anticipated for the first time, though, square is breaking out cash app volume growth. this is its p2p venmo competitor they are not giving us an absolute number but cash app gpv payments processed grew nearly 150% year over year. the losses are narrowing in the

after hours down 6% after being down more than that. more than 8% previously. investors clearly digesting through some of the good and bad of this mixed earnings report. >> did they break out some of the other businesses like my favorite overpriced restaurant delivery service caviar? >> they have subskriptsion and services revenue so that is actually above expectations coming in at $219 million. that's what the restaurant revenue is from and this has been a strong point for the company. remember, the company started out doing the dongles, which is hardware that makes up a very small part of revenue as they grow the subscription and services transaction. this is the biggest portion of revenue that came in light this quarter. >> dee, thanks for that. mike, after an incredible run in 2017 and 2018, the fear when you have a miss like this is that the increasing competition, not just from paypal and some of its acquisitions but from the big banks who are pushing into this

space and a miss there does worry people >> it's not the first miss last year there were a couple of stumbles the crowding into this area is probably top of mind right now everybody sees the huge opportunity. and that's why everybody is throwing money that this sector. >> it always raises the question about market leadership. still up 50% but that's not the recent phenomenon it lost its leadership position. how do you think about some of those hot stocks that fueled the rally for so long to record highs. now we're reaching record highs without them >> i do think that it's become a much more selective market what you've seen is people have gone with the complete, you know, consensus winners that have already been established a long time. if you are looking at the true faangs, the adobes, the salesforces, it's not that much this emerging class that carried the market for a while >> the broader markets and final thoughts

jeff, what's your take as to how much is left in this rally before we might see something turn south again >> as i mentioned, you'll need some form of catalyst at this stage. we've already had a market up over 17%, 18% at this point. and so in order to get that next leg, we need to see something different. it reminds me of what's going on across the other markets a slow grind higher in risk assets the one market is the u.s. rates market the rates market has been in for the year, whether that's in front of the curve or back end and at this stage, the one disconnect from everything else going to in risk assets is the u.s. rates market and perhaps it's affected by global rates going throw low right now, the rates market is having a disconnect from the rest of the world. so if you believe in improving

economic story that we're seeing some of the data, yes, ism, manufacturing missed on the pmi today, but it still looks expansionary at this level you have to watch and see if the rates market reprices to go with the rest of these which means rates higher, does that impose a headwind on some of these assets >> paul, how do you think historically about what we've seen so far this year? we just wrapped up april best four month start to a year since 1987 which sounds great, but also 1987 saw one of the biggest crashes in history how do we think about that >> historically, 1987 and 19, i think it w 33, you had strong starts and the market dropped significantly. but the other top ten years were the first four months, you continued to see gains throughout the year. the focus is, look at the leadership if you want to look for one fly in the ointment is that's as the s&p hit new highs this week, we

were talking about leadership and lack thereof semi, homebuilders none of those hit new highs this week they led us out of the market on a relative basis in december it's only a few days but that's one thing you can continue to watch here as far as a catalyst is concerned, it's hard to anticipate what the catalyst is going to be. usually we look back and say that was what got things going but it's just -- focus on what the market is showing us and leadership among key groups. >> we'll leave it there, guys. jeff sherman and paul hickey up next, we'll speak to a top payments analyst on how you should be trading shares of square after the stock was sent down after hours and wu-tang clan explains why he's a fan of the

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welcome back markets closed lower the big question coming into the fed meeting today was, was the fed concerned about slightly soft inflation the statement suggested they were a little bit, but jerome powell's press conference suggested otherwise. relaxed and not likely to cut rates any time soon. certainly not likely to hike them the net effect was selling of equities off the back of that, particularly in the final half an hour of trade the dow closing down 0.6%. session lows, 162 points lower and the s&p down more markedly, about 0.8%, 0.75% at the close shares of square falling after just reporting earnings

moments ago. >> joining us to break down the numbers, lisa ellis. thanks for joining us. quite a big move lower in the share prices talk us through why. >> fircst and foremost, the gvb number it's the fourth or fifth quarter the number has been light which raises the question about competition. there's been a lot of new entrants into square's space recently shopify just last week launched a new point of sale system paypal got regulatory approval and so investors are concerned around potential slowdown in square who has had a strong leadership position for a long time >> and the big banks, i guess, as well, fighting back on this area which not only questions the volumes that they'll be able to take but the profitability also >> yes yeah, absolutely that's probably another soft spot i'm looking through the numbers. the company raised their revenue

outlook for the year they kept ebitda guidance intact and widened the net income loss expectations for the year. >> what about the other services that had been a source of, and still continue to be a source of growth >> absolutely. subscription services has been the real strong point over the last year. a lot of that is things like caviar, instant deposit, cash app. but digging into that one a little bit while the overall number is definitely strong, it's up over 120% year on year within that square capital which is their loans to small businesses 50% year on year which means some of the other services decelerated. and so investors are probably a little bit more worried about that deceleration in the other services that's implied in there. >> how should investors be viewing this group, if it seems if it's developing into very crowded sort of a zero-sum game. >> the way we look at it is the single biggest trend in payments

is related to e-commerce as an investor, we -- very simple reason that virtually all e-commerce payments are made with a card. we look for the payments means that are most tied to e-commerce it's an easy way for an investor to make a bet. they are 100% e-commerce even visa and mastercard that's another area where square is behind. very in-store cent riric. >> what do we do with the stock here >> we're neutral on this one wewould still be in a holding pattern. we're really looking for the number to reaccelerate square's launched a ton of great new products in the last year but we're looking for them to up their sales and marketing spend behind that to really get out there. they've enjoyed, in many ways, almost not having to sell. they have a phenomenal product, a phenomenal brand a lot of sellers find them online

but nowadays they have a lot more competition we're looking for them to roll up their sleeves and get out there and be selling more aggressively and see that gdv number accelerate. >> thank you very much for that lisa ellis square down 7% after hours coming up -- the s&p 500 having its best four-month start to a year since 1987 and we know that didn't end up very well for the bulls. we'll break down the charts and see if history can repeat itself >> and beyond meat expected to finalize its ipo pricing in just a few minutes. the latest on the next big ipo when we come back.

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we reviewed economic and financial developments in the united states and around the world and decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged overall, the economy continues on a healthy path, and the committee believes in current stance of policy is appropriate. our baseline view remains that with a strong job market and continued growth, inflation will return to 2% over time recent data from china and europe shows some improvement. and the prospect of a disorderly brexit has been pushed off for now. some asset prices are somewhat elivated but not extremely so. we don't think about short-term political considerations we don't discuss them. and we don't consider them in making our decisions >> is it time to address low inflation through policy >> if we did see a persistent -- inflation running persistently below, then that's something the

committee would be concerned about and something we'd take into account in setting policy >> instead he said it's transient. that was jay powell in the last hour what we saw, jay powell taking the stage starting to explain their inflation ideas and the market took a dip lower. higher going into that news conference off the statement lower on the powell comments and tumbled into the close, mike santoli. the fed making it clear they are firmly patient they're not giving any clues as to the next move whether it's going to be a hike or a cut. and maybe the market wanted to lean more into the cut side of things see that core inflation is more problematic for the fed. he kind of dismissed it by saying it's temporary. >> a little bit of a concern about persistently low inflation and then given a couple of opportunities in the q&a, powell didn't really buy into that. it's not necessarily automatically a bad thing for the market that the fed chair says the dip in inflation may be

transitory janet yellen was using that phrase in 2017 the stock market moved higher. we kind of felt like there was an acceleration going on in the economy. not as much sensitivity. >> it's interesting how much sold off in the final half hour of trade down 0.75 on the s&p. what you guys said, he didn't rule out the next move could be a cut. he is being patient. and the equity market reaction, much bigger than the bond market reaction or the dollar the dollar was briefly down 0.1% then up 0.2% >> similar but most of the -- then settled, whereas the equity market continues steadily climbing >> and the context is key. how many record highs have we hit in the last week we've run up it's a strong and persistent climb. we're essentially holding near the highs. didn't even fall 1%. still that move was enough to be the worst for the s&p since early april.

let's move on and talk about beyond meat which is set to release its final ipo pricing any moment leslie picker joins us with more >> beyond meat will likely price beyond the company's initial expectations since it already hiked the range it had been marketing to visitors. the company makes plant-based alternatives in three categories beef, pork and poultry but their flagship product is the beyond burger which the company says it designed to look, cook and taste like traditional ground beef. beyond meat's products are sold in 30,000 points of distribution, primarily grocery store chains like kroger and whole foods and tgi fridays and carl's jr. they employ 63 scientists, engineers and chefs to create and test the food. and they started monetizing about three years ago. in 2018, sold about $88 million worth of meat alternatives thanks largely to r&d, expenses

and costs, beyond meat remains unprofitable, but losses have been relatively stable throughout the last three years. top line growth has more than doubled each year. yet, investors still seem ready to assign this deal a market cap around $1.5 billion when it begins trading tomorrow. here's an interesting nugget no pun intended from the risk factor section their main ingredient is actually pea protein which is sourced from canada and france price fluctuations of peas due to bad harvest or trade wars could impact their costs >> leslie, i love it, and i love the -- >> they also use beets to make it look like it's got blood and it's bleeding. >> the burgers look realistic. i have tried these i'm excited to watch "fast money" tonight because i know they'll be doing some blind testing on this. but either way, this growth and

with it very stable losses not kind of growing losses, the growth in revenue does set it apart from some of the other ipos we've had recently. >> it shows what their money is going forwatoward is largely administrative it can remain stable if they continue to reinvest in their business they also lead out very clearly what they plan to do with the proceeds from this ipo put more money into the r&d expenses in which case we could see those cost goes down as they use the proceeds to supplement, as well as for working capital and other forms of use cases for them so it will be interesting to see this one, especially as growth really takes off as they assign more partnerships. i was talking to an investor looking at the potential restaurants they could penetrate in 2019 as well as a bold case for this company >> the question investors have to ask, the consumer, whether this is a fad. the alternative proteins,

plant-based meat it's hot right now is it here to stay >> the value of this company, it's very sensitive to your estimates of the end market. how big it is and how fast it's growing. also what's proprietary about what they have >> they cite a quote from a global animal protein strategist at rava bank i didn't even know banks employed those >> tells you where like -- >> justin, global animal protein strategist >> that could be someone who tells you where cattle futures are. >> that's a good title >> leslie, thank you for that. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> hello, everyone here's what's happening at this hour attorney general william barr today saying he didn't exonerate president trump saying that's not the role of the justice department barr says the doj's job is to identify crimes and prosecute them, and he didn't think the evidence from the mueller report

was sufficient to prove obstruction of justice theresa may firing her defense minister gavin williamson today after a leak from a top level national security meeting involving a plan to allow china's huawei to help build the uk's 5g network williamson denied any role in the leak and a two-time olympic champion runner will be forced to suppress her natural testosterone if she wants to continue competing she lost her appeal with track and field's governing body the iaaf says her high test oft roen levels give her an unfair advantage. two of basketball's biggest stars got hurt in last night's game between the rockets and warriors james harden got poked in the eye and steph curry discloecloc his finger, but both of them returned to the game game three isn't until saturday. you are up to date that's the news update back downtown to you >> can't believe they came back

after those injuries >> they're tough >> sure thing. the big gains to start this year, not since 1987 we'll explain how that may not be such a great thing, coming up and it's been a very busy after-hours earning session. square in particular, falling on weak gross payment volume. fitbit qualcomm under pressure. we'll dive into all of those to a single defining moment... ...when a plan stops being a plan and gets set into motion. today's merrill can help you get there with the people, tools, and personalized advice to help turn your ambitions into action. what would you like the power to do?

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let's get to a couple more reports here earnings after hours seema mody tracking those. >> caesars higher hotel revenue in las vegas. net revenues increasing to $2.12 billion. that was higher than what the street was looking for the increase in las vegas gaming and lodging driven by two things higher slot volumes and just higher hotel occupancies. it was 95% in the quarter up from 92.5% in 2018 bottom line, more people are going to vegas stock up about 3%. let's pivotto eventbrooite.

that stock falling a bigger than expected loss on its bottom line, plus weaker revenue guidance there were some analysts ahead of today's earnings report mentioning the competitive environment and ticketing as more consumers look for activities that go beyond sporting events, experiences the stock trading at its lowest level since going public on september 20th of 2018 ironically, eventbrite, one of the best performing, gaining 60% on its first day of trade. now down 26% today back to you. >> seema, thanks for that. mike, coming back to the caesars number slight difference to what came out of the mgm numbers >> it seems like incrementally, unless it's a relative market share thing, caesars, the stock still way below its high the group has labored under the

skepticism that vegas can come back strong. cnbc just wrapping up an interview with the company's ceo fresh off the earnings report. a check on the big s&p winners. stick with us here on "closing bell." we're back in a few minutes.

here's a recap of the big earnings we've seen so far since the close. beats for qualcomm, square and fitbit which all topped on eps and revenue.

qualcomm also falling after third quarter guidance missed estimates. the reaction there you can see down 4% or 5% for qualcomm and square fitbit higher 2% jon fortt wrapping up an interview with the ceo he's back at headquarters with some qualcomm's ceo and a couple of the other top executives there primary takeaway here is weakness in china. they are saying that weakness in china really affected the guidance it could be what they called the lull before the 5g storm unlike apple which last night said they are seeing an improving trend in china, qualcomm executives telling me that on the android side, because 5g icoming sooner there, china, unicom starting to launch it, they are seeing customers perhaps waiting and delaying their purchases, particularly on the premium end for 5g also some overall weakness, not

just in premium but also in the low to midrange. we heard a bit about that from samsung when they reported earnings as well now the eps guide, the non-gap eps guide of 75 cents, that reflects the china weakness. i asked about the apple royalty payments of course the 4.5 to $4.7 billion payment that's coming from apple in the gap numbers they'll give in q3 but they also said the go forward royalty payments from apple that are now going to be flowing through into the licensing business will be showing up but that investors, until they hear this explanation on the call should not assume that the relatively low number on nongap eps means that apple is paying a lot less in licensing. actually, they said that reflects the weakness they talked about in china and the overall market they'll break down some of those numbers on the call. before you assume that the lower licensing number is because apple is not paying too much, you have to hear what the

qualcomm executive are going to say about the china market on the call which is kicking off right now, guys. >> jon, we'll definitely want to hear about that. how confident did he sound and certain did he sound that that aforementioned 5g storm was going to come and was going to come big >> a lot of executives sound confident about things that haven't happened yet i wouldn't want people to bank too much on that i'm not sure they know exactly what's happening in the market but they are very confident in 5g china unicom is launching it it's expected to be a big deal right now look at the numbers we have right? >> absolutely right. jon, thank you we look forward to any further comments from that call. qualcomm down 4% after hours trading like it's 1987 the market seeing a trend it hasn't seen since this song was topping the charts mike santoli heads to the telestrator.

>> he remembers. >> with pain >> so good the '80s >> breaking down >> and coming up on "fast money," stock continue their climb but one strategist says there's something investors are missing as they get lost in the excitement he's here to explain what's a target date fund? 529 plan? a 10-k? what's an etf? an ipo? 401(k)? where do i start? empower yourself with the free tools and resources on investor.gov. before you invest, investor.gov.

the s&p 500 off to its best start to the year since 1987, however, that was also the year of black monday when the index saw its biggest one-day percentage crash ever. mike san tolly with a closer look at the comparison over at the telestrator. >> interesting you can actually play this both ways because 1987 was great

before it got very ugly, as you can see here this is the blue line and the s&p 500's path in 1987 and of course, the orange line is year to date and the s&p 500 and we're up more than 17% as of today and right here it's 19% back in 1987 and in may, that's not the dramatic part. the real telling thing and a couple, actually, we were up in 198740% year to date by august i don't know if anyone's calling for that, that would be extraordinary if that would happen and the market ignored lots of things going on in the bond market and the fed was tightening most of this time and of course, this is black monday and this is your 22% one-day loss that's never happened before or since. so it's basically this one-off extraordinary event, but it does show you that markets that have started strong often can carry higher for a while i would offer the one other distinction which is what preceded each year 1986 was a good year for the

markets. s&p was up 17% and made an all-time high in december and we are reversing a massive sell-off and the strength had a lot to do and it was a bit less of a meltup than it was in 1987. >> i don't know what level of the vix was in 1987, but from the two lines, the orange line looks remarkably up. >> the vix had to be retrofitted because it didn't actually exist and by the way, it hit triple digits right here. >> right, but no, it was much higher you had a much jumpier market and it was a higher octane rally and the market was getting on five years old without that much of a pullback. >> very different scenarios for the economy and central bank. >> you talk about an overheating economy and a lot of global tensions and dollar, stress and things like that >> 1987. >> all rate. >> a long time ago

>> bad album. >> we will bring you the big names making big moves after hours. >> for beyond meets ipo and ethan brown will be on squawk box ahead of trading at 7:20 a.m. eastern we're back in a couple of minutes. your brain is an amazing thing.

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let's take a look at how it ended across board a late-day sell-off triggered by jay powell's testimony that sort of sent stocks lower and they tumbled into the close s&p 500 closing down three-quarters of one percent and were staying almost a month. the dow jones industrial average down 162 at the close. apple a notable exception kept the nasdaq from falling further down about half a percent and the russell 2000 index of small caps down double about 1%. square plunging on earnings and our deidre bossa just spoke with the company's new cfo it's down 5% d, what did you learn? >> this is her second quarter as cfo and rita, i spoke to her and i asked about the week guidance that's hitting the stock in the after hours and she said that the company is focusing on

re-investing back into the business i also asked her about larger sellers and she didn't really address my question and it's proportion of total gross pages volume, about 50% of the total that was flat on a sequential basis and there's some concern that as square moves up market and targets begger businesses and they fall into well-capitalized competitors and we'll be on the call for more comments from her and i wouldn't be surprised to hear new questions regarding this important gpv number and the guidance >> okay, deidre, thanks very much for that. down 5%. its had a fantastic 2016 and '17 and '18 and less so the last six months or so and let's check in on the other headlines moving higher and thanks to better than expected sales of wearable devices. led light maker cree falling after a revenue miss and that stock down 7%.

>> zynga spiking after the social gamemaker beat wall street sales estimates and issued strong bookings guidance. mike, we look ahead to, i guess, the jobs report on friday, potential catalyst after mixed data adp and the private sector is very strong today, but ism manufacturing, the disappointing and weakest since 2016 >> it was obscured after we did get the fed meeting and i didn't think we would get a verdict with the jobs number and one thing about the 3.2% gdp number we got is that the entire upside beat was because of the inflation shortfall. in other words, nominal gdp growth last quarter was the lowest since 2016, and it was just the fact that we were just out for inflation when we got the real gdp number, maybe that's why the bond market never really priced it as if it was an economy that was accelerating again and that's why the jobs number would fare to see what kind of momentum we have coming through april and i guess also

what it means for the fed. >> we should point out lisa su sitting down with cnbc's jim cramer moments ago discussing growing market share and its core businesses. >> it's been a great year and it's been a great few years. so for us it's all about products and we have large markets. we're in the pc business, the gaming business and the data center business and these are great markets and we have a story and we are all about our products and gaining market share. >> you don't want to miss all of that interview coming up on "mad money," lisa su on amd, 6:00 p.m. eastern time and lots to discuss there. back to the broader markets. i guess earlier apple made it clear they moved on its own and google did that, as well i guess you can point it as a negative today and a positive. >> very interesting with those two especially apple it doesn't really tend to drag the market one way or the other. the context to today's pullback

does matter in the sense that we were out on the highs and kind of this low volume trudging higher it wasn't necessarily a forceful momentum move. also, post-fed reactions don't follow through to the next day you saw it in march. >> we will be watching that and that does it for "closing bell" today. >> "fast money" begins right now and mike santolli's favorite song to take us out. "fast money" overlooking new york city's times square tim seymour, dan nathan and guy adami. healthcare is flat lining this year and one top technician is in for the beaten down stocks and we'll tell you which names to buy and zee after-hours action and qualcomm, and those conference calls both under way and we start off with the late-day market sell-off check out the dow down more than 150 points closing nea