it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is your top five at 5:00. breaking news, u.s. clamp down on uranium oil is over today can we really expect exports to go to zero venezuela at a tipping point, more street protests expected today political tensions there are finally boiling over the fed, holding rates steady but one word jay powell used that is raising eyebrows. where's the beef apparently it's on wall street call it the investing edge what u2's guitarist told us

about the future of music that every investor, every wanna-be rock star should here is a beautiful day. and worldwide exchange begins right now. ♪ it's a beautiful day good morning good afternoon, good evening and welcome, from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan glad to be back with you thanks for joining us here wall street pointing to a slightly open right now. as the fed yesterday holds the course before that, we are following a developing story in oil market u.s. waivers to eight nations on uranium oil -- iranian oil sanctions start at midnight. that means they need to find

other means or keep buying on the black market and risk the wrath of trump iran has said they're going to keep exporting our government has said you better not how do you think this ultimately plays out? >> i don't think anybody expects that iran exports will ultimately go to zero. they're expecting about 1.3 million barrels a day right now. i think that some of that oil will continue to flow to market, as you mentioned, through the black market so some oil will be smuggled through iraq some of it will go through in nondollar denominated transactions some of that will still filter through. it's certainly a bullish story for the market because we are talking about the loss of potentially up to 800 or 900,000 barrels of day. >> crude has a big start to the year given iran, venezuela, libya is not higher than 63 bucks traded in the united states. >> i don't think the market has fully priced in the iranian

story yet. we're still lower than where we were a year ago. we're certainly off the lows, well off the lows -- sorry, well off the lows of the high -- of where we were last year, well off those highs when the market was fully pricing in iranian exports. i think the market has room to tighten before petering out the end of the year. >> we're still down year over year. >> thanks for correcting me. >> it's 5:03 in the morning. don't worry about it at all. here is the weird irony. if you do continue to sell, like they have before, they'll probably have to sell it at discount you're not going to take a full-priced tank of super tanker oil because you know you have to do it surrepititously. >> particularly in india where they're really thirsty for barrels, they're going to want iran yan barrels at a discount there will be a market for it. iranian oil is condensate, some

of it is a heavier grade it's not easily replicated by others. >> let's switch gears entirely, because you work at the nasdaq anadarco, chevron deal flow, whatever you want to call it, has gotten the most attention on the street for the beginning of another round of oil m & a what do you think? >> i think we're in very interesting times in the u.s. shale industry we could probably do a whole show on that topic, we talk about exploration and production no one exploring for the oil we know where it is. these companies are moving into manufacturing mode scrappy, independent companies driving innovation is no longer the case in the state of consolidation that we're in or manufacturing mode really companies need to

have scale and efficiency. that suggests they need to be bigger there are over 70 onshore publicly traded emp companies. that number is really large. i think we'll see more consolidation and make the space more investable. >> you made a lot of beleaguered stock owners happy always good to get your views. >> thanks for having me. let's get to the speed of what's happen nth stock market futures showing the dow is likely to rise a little bit at the open up about 28 points right now not a big gain but we are in the green. really interesting, of course, is the bond market stocks have gone up this year. buyers have come into treasuries as well. yield on tent-year note holdin relative at 2.5% stocks did pull back from their all-time highs after the fed

left rates unchanged that nonmove wasn't the story of the entire meeting by any means. here is what have a powell said at the news conference yesterday. >> we have an economy where the expansion is continuing. growth is at a healthy level the labor market is strong we see job creation. we see wages moving up inflation is low, which gives us the ability to be patient and we do expect it to move up and we want it to move up to 2% i see us on a good path for this year. >> now powell, adding that low inflation is, quote, transitory and not persistent that word, transitoy, getting a lot of attention today what do you think he meant by that, transitory >> i think he's trying to paint a relatively benign picture here that's what we got, a push, yesterday. investors like myself were

hostage to central bank policy it's been that way the last decade, it's certainly like that now. markets did not get the rate cut or talk of a rate cut coming down the road and they sold off on the day so, that's the story we have right now. i could argue for a rate cut you look at an inverted yield curve, the ten-year almost demands a rate cut but he's hostage to the political environment. >> david, forget about the datea. you could make the argument for a rate cut simply because the president of the united states is literally pounding his fist on the table for a 1% cut. >> well, that's, you know, off the reservation. and even more off the reservation is going back to quantitative easing. i hope we don't do that. even that's where i part company with jay powell. even at 3.5 trillion that we're going to get, that's seven times more than we were in the financial crisis. >> powell zigging, trump zagging. that was not a fed chair yesterday that sounded like he was going to cut rates any time

soon. >> no. it looks like we're pushing and they don't plan to do anything at this point. and, look, most of this rally is largely on the heels of a reverse of the federal reserve policy no matter what kind of analysis you do, stocks do not live anyway vacuum. the rate is a politic dynamic. if we get back to 3. 2% like we were in october, that's where risk allocators will derisk like they did then, they'll see an opportunity in the bond market and go there. >> why, looking for a 3% gain? >> they didn't want to be in the stock market in the first place. >> 2.5% yield drives you into the stock market because the dividend yield in the s&p 500 is about the same yield on the bonds and you're not getting any upside necessarily. >> that's why we're so totally dependent on interest rates and 3.2% where we were there, stocks

have to go lower. >> .7% change? >> massive difference for insurance company to match assets. >> .7%. >> i don't care. massive difference you saw that money shift, poured out of equities once we got above 3.2. it will happen again. >> we always tell our equity investor audience you have to watch bond yields. why? they're boring. >> it's important. >> the reason they watch it is because if we hit that 3.2 number >> i don't know if it's 3.2 or higher. >> whatever it is. i'm not going to hold you to that exact number. >> something higher than that. but we're not there. stocks are trading -- >> so flip your logic. if we continue to go lower in yields, do we continue to go higher in stocks >> likely, yeah. >> there's a story on cnbc.com, i think it posted last night, where basically wall street banks are advising clients -- >> i saw that. >> -- we could get a rip up higher in the equity markets.

>> that's frightening. >> larry rock saying we could get a melt up. >> that's pretty frightening everybody is scaling into the market, came in pretty asset light. now everybody is in, fully invested gets pretty complacent it actually concerns me. >> what's the risk that they're hanging on as long as the market hangs on >> usually by the time everybody gets in, you know, i can't tell you if there's a black swan out there. if it's living out there, it's something we haven't seen yet. it's always concerning when everybody is bullish. >> or we have it wrong market doesn't seem to care about that a trade deal that's not done yet. venezuela, which we'll get to in a second, in complete disaster. >> tell me what victory is going to look like in that trade deal and i'll be more confident i don't think we're going to get everything we want. >> isn't a deal itself a form of victory? >> better than nothing wherever we go it's better than where we are. >> where do stocks go from here? >> stocks are still the better asset class if rates stay benign. >> that's why we watch bond

yields thank you very much. facebook reportedly nearing a big deal with federal regulators over privacy issues the big facebook story with frank. >> failures to protect user data politico report says the company would be required to create an independent privacy oversight committee that could include members of its own board and a privacy official approved by the government to its executive ranks. mark zuckerberg would take on the role of designated compliance officer, responsible for facebook's privacy plan and make him accountable for the company's handling of privacy issues last week, facebook set aside $3 billion to cover a settlement with u.s. regulators and said that fine could reach as much as $5 billion ftc has been investigating whether facebook violated a 2011 agreement by allegedly sharing data of millions of users with

cambridge analytica. facebook declined to comment on that report but has committed to become more focused on user privacy. facebook shares are up fractionally, even following this news. back to you. >> frank, see you in a bit thank you very much. another day, another ipo to talk about beyond meat, pricing its initial public offering at $25 a share at the top end of the expected range. the company, as its name would apply, makes meatless alternatives to burgers, is expected to begin trading today under the ticker symbol bymd we are getting started here on "worldwide exchange. break through in u.s./china trade talks? maybe. why a deal could be in the books as soon as next week. plus, more on the prapdly unfolding and deteriorating situation in venezuela political tensions boiling over. are u.s. troops about to go into

venezuela? analysis and insight on that next ♪ you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis.

all right. good morning or good evening in hong kong. live look in hong kong at 5:15 about as foggy there as it is here be careful driving, by the way sources telling cnbc it is, quote, possible the u.s. could announce a trade deal with china as early as next friday. the white house has not

confirmed our reporting and says this week's trade talks have pushed both sides closer to a deal chinese advice premier will travel to washington next week for a new round of negotiations and hopefully a deal by the end of the week. from china to caracas, venezuela, we're continuing to follow a major development throughout that country. political tensions finally boiling over the fate of the country may be at stake frances rivera has the latest. good morning, frances. >> good morning, brian tear gas was used to disperse protesters during the second day of dueling demonstrations. opposition leader juan guaido, who has the support of the united states, has called on members of the military to defect so far only a few troops have appeared to have joined him. secretary pompeo says he wants a

peaceful transition but all options are open calling for cuba and russia to back off while russian's minister accused the united states of trying to stage a coup in venezuela. >> thank you, frances. let's talk more about that unfolding situation in venezuela, how it ends up. joining me now, katherine, good morning. good to see you again. it looks like we are coming, perhaps, to some kind of head where we'll get an official government perhaps at the end of this do you believe that or can maduro really hang on? >> i suppose and perhaps are appropriate words, brian, yeah it looks like maduro did hang on yesterday. someone jumped the gun it was supposed to be may 1st. it was april 30th and it was a weak uprising. it was ineffective and mediocre. so what really needs to happen

now is the military has to be turned maduro has painted himself in a corner very difficult now he has very, very limited options at this point. if he arrests guaido, if he harms him in any way, it gives a green light to the u.s. to intervene militarily, which by -- according to tweets, the u.s. is very ready to do. >> that's what i was going to ask, if you believe, katherine, we will ultimately see u.s. men and women, u.s. servicemen in venezuela. >> i think it could happen i wouldn't say it's going to, brian, but i think it could happen if, in fact, maduro moves on guaido. if he does not, which he hasn't heretofor, brian keep in mind the other opposition leader who spearhe spearheaded, and joined by guaido, this uprising and is now in the spanish embassy

approximately 20 military officers are protected by the brazilian embassy. so guaido is out there he hasn't been arrested. he could be, but he hasn't been. and i think that's to avoid u.s. military intervention. i think maduro is scared at the end of the day, the u.s. would love to see guaido take power. it's the tyranny, if the venezuela dictatorship falls, cuba likely falls with it and in the wake the u.s. would look to rid nicaragua of this socialist autocracy as well. >> the fighting even between former members of the military fighting against each other right now. two ways to look at this kathryn. number one, yesterday was the attempt. it failed. maduro hangs on. number two, to your point, maybe too early or proo mature was

just the beginning of more and we'll see it get bigger until maduro is gone which do you believe it was? >> i think his days are absolutely numbered, brian yesterday was a failed attempt and protests in the streets are not going to do it either. the fact is, brian -- you know this as an oil export as well as i do venezuela's oil production has absolutely collapsed, 3.5 million barrels a day to under 1 million. venezuela is now producing with the biggest oil reserves in the world less than colombia, its neighbor, who has a minutes kis fraction of the oil reserves my point is there's very little cash to go around and continue to pay off the military, which is why the military has been so stowart behind maduro. at some point the cash will dry

up. >> doing great work about venezuela, caracas capital according to his sources flight trackers tracked a russian private jet that came from russia, flew direct into venezuela, stayed for about 12 hours. they don't know what it did. it landed in punta cana in the dominican republic what do you think the russians, if that's true, may be doing or getting out of venezuela >> look, we heard congressman mario dias-balart mention something about the nuclear arms from russia going moo venezuela. he is a very credible source, also a congressman from florida. he said that yesterday your audience needs to realize venezuela is a national security threat to the united states. not only are they state sponsors of terrorism, which they've been contemplated by the u.s. to be added to that state sponsor terrorism list, they have hamas, hezbollah, they harbor eln these are things that we already

know have been going on. if there is an escalation and venezuela gets nuclear armed by russia, for example, then it's a whole other level. and i think the u.s. really would need to take action. >> kathryn, always a pleasure to get your views and insight thank you very much. >> thank you, brian. >> on deck, why one of the biggest oil companies is actually trading higher this morning. plus the investing edge. what yu2's lead guitarest told u that you've got to here. unpredictable crohn's symptoms following you?

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try skechers wide fit shoes. all right. good morning and welcome back. cnbc sitting down with colorado governor at our own net/net event last night here is what the governor said about the booming cannabis marketplace. >> we're always going to be relative small potatoes on the actual sales of cannabis we won't be as big as states like california or new jersey, but where we do have an advantage is that ten years from now point of sale systems, chemistry, genetics, all those pieces are housed here in colorado with successful companies that power multi-billion dollar national industry. >> you want to hear more you can. go to cnbc.com/netnet.

switching gears and strings. i caught up with u2's the edge and i asked him more about the impact of streaming music on the industry here is his take. >> myself and my partner in crime, bono, were quite close to steve jobs and we talked at length with him about how, you know, digital technology was affecting music, musicians and creators and the model that itunes used for so long was the ownloading of the file the thing about technology, technology moves basically where the market will drive it and convenience seems to be the thing everybody wants these days so now we're dealing with streaming. i have to say that my personal

view is it's really going to start working for musicians and creators when it gets to scale it is not working that well right now for creators, if you were to compare it to, you know, what people would earn from a cd sale or file sale. i'm looking to the future and thinking about the next generation of creators and songwriters and i'm confident that as it builds and it gets more prevalent that it's going to be enough income to foster the next generation. >> i know a lot of upcoming bands certainly hopes it does. they feel like they're not getting paid i also asked him what advice do you have if you're a 22-year-old in a band trying to make it like they did decades ago, and he said make good songs the edge and the scientist he is partnering with to fight cancer on cnbc.com. the streets may not have a name but our show does "worldwide exchange. is there a perfect storm brewing in the oil market, iran oil

sanctions, venezuela, trump tweets a lot at play. opec headquarters. and an alert on what you're probably drinking right now. coffee starbucks announcing a major recall the what and the why, straight ahead. okay, i picked out my dream car. now's the really fun part: choosing the color, the wheels, the interior. everything exactly how i want it. here's the thing, just because i configured this car online

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oil alert. crude oil down this morning.

iranian sanctions kicking into full effect tonight. we are live at opex headquarters straight ahead. powell pauses and the record rally takes a breather will the president back off? and giving back, staggering stat about giving, super model, super role model petra nemcova you'll hear from her on "worldwide exchange" as we roll on right now ♪ you can go your own way >> welcome back and good morning. 5:31 on thursday on the east coast. i am brian sullivan. we're keeping an eye on oil prices this doirn a touch right now, $63 barrel trading here that is not the story. the story is two-fold. two major developing stories from two major ope krchlc natio. first, iranian sanctions kicking into full effect today

due to expire tonight at midnight iran says they will buck the sanctions and continue to export and sell their oil we're also following the latest political unrest out of venezuela. more protests are expected today. they turned violent yesterday. we'll take you live to opec headquarters later on in the show to talk more about both of these important stories. meantime, your money and investments, halfway through the 5:00 hour, unlike oil they're a little bit in the green. dow futures a jump of about 47 points at the open, s&p and nasdaq are also higher do you know what else is higher? bonds. their yield holding steady buyers have continued to come into treasuries as well. we're watching that low yield on the market yesterday, stocks did pull back from all-time highs after the fed left rates unchanged that's not the story here is what fed chair jay powell said at the news conference that really got

everybody's attention. >> we have an economy where the expansion is continuing. growth is at a healthy level the labor market is strong we see job creation, wages moving up. inflation is low, which gives us the ability to be patient and we do expect it to move up. we want it to move up to 2%. i see us on a good path for this year. >> joining us now to talkmore about this, the markets and your money is gina sanchez, cnbc contributor. i just saw you in los angeles. we should have done an interview there rather than you get up at 2:00 in the morning. we do appreciate it, gina. thank you very much. >> always happy to be here. >> that's nice say it again what did you take away from the fed press conference the statement itself maybe not that much. the press conference, as always, where the action is. that does not sound like a fed chair who wants to cut rates. >> no, it doesn't, actually. in fact, we are kind of -- he's walking such a tightrope right

now. if you look at sort of the question about inflation and the idea of inflation being transitory, right? well, that basically says i am still going to be watching for, you know -- i'm still going to remain slightly hawkish. that's not necessarily great however, the opposite story of that really is that you are seeing some softness the fact that we have no inflation is not necessarily a great story. we don't have much consumption consumption is low and i think, you know, powell also mentioned that some of the kind of pause or slowness in consumption and investment really had to do with china trade talks, and as soon as those wrapped up, then that could lift and, in fact, we could see some sentiment, some positive sentiment come back into the market. so, yeah, you're right, that definitely is not a fed that is about to cut. >> and we've got a market that is pretty much at or near record

high, depending on the major index that you could pick out. is this a market that deserves to be at a record high >> no. you know, brian, how i feel. i don't think that this market deserves to be at a record high. i think there's tremendous amount of overvaluation in pockets of the market. interestingly, there are pockets of the market that are not necessarily overvalued one of the things powell mentioned that i think is worth paying attention to is the idea that the fed might actually change the maturity profile of the fed's balance sheet. so rather than mirroring the market, the fed might actually choose to buy more shorter term or shorter dated bonds rather than the exact mirror of the market now that would be interesting, because you're seeing, actually, some really good price movement out of the financials. and if he does that, he's going to steepen the curve even further. and that would be great for financials, who are already getting a kick from the ipo market and the fact that the curve is finally steepened

if you push that short end down, that's going to be an even bigger boost to the financials. >> i can't remember the move but there's some line like, deserve ain't got nothing to do with it! if we see financials start to move higher, the banks finally taking off, can they pull this market, maybe even kicking and screaming, higher? >> you know, i think they could. we're seeing some really unloved parts of the market performing not just financials but energy you've been talking all morning about all the news around oil supply the energy markets are actually finally starting to come out of the doldrums as well those are two sectors that have largely been unloved, that are coming back out. and that could actually be positive now, do i think the market deserves to be here? no but that doesn't mean that that's going to stop it. i mean, we're at 2/3 of the way, 3/4 of the way through the earnings season and you're looking at we're going to dodge an earnings recession. given how strong earnings were a

year ago, it's shocking that we're going to manage, sort of eke out 1.5% growth. that's actually heroic there's also some fundamental story behind this as well. >> we don't deserve your insight but we're happy to have it as always, as well. gina sanchez, have a great day thank you very much. microchips, micropayments and big oil. focus of other big stocks to watch. qualcomm revenue outlook fell, blaming weak smart phone sales in china, saying they're holding out for 5g phones. qualcomm announced it will get $4.5 billion from its settlement with apple square, lower earnings there, missed payment volumes second quarter outlook disappointing as well. that stock down 6% right now completing the hat trick, shell first quarter profits

falling 7% profits year over year are down. shell did benefit from higher sales of liquefied natural gas and shell stock moving the other way, up 2.5% right now time for this morning's top trending stories frank collins, what are we going to be talking on this thursday morning? >> believe it or not, we're talking about coffee we'll get right to it. starbucks is recalling it's bodum coffee press, breaks calling cuts and puncture wounds, recalling 260,000 of these presses. if every one of those presses is returned, the chain could lose as much as $5.3 million. cruise ship with nearly 300 passengers and crew on board has been quarantined in the caribbean after a case of measles was confirmed on board the ship is owned and operated by the church of scientology the measles patient has been isolated on board but st. lucian officials will not let anyone

get off board. it is expected to leave st. lucia tonight. >> that's scary because it moves very quickly scratched from the race due to breathing problems, not life threatening and could be corrected through a minor surgery. the new front-runner is fittingly named game winner. it starts 2:30 p.m. eastern i think it combines three of your favorite things, gambling, fancy hats and. >> and horses. improbable has raced in the rain this year. i think his father was a mudder. his mother was a mudder. >> his mother was a mudder >> know this you have to be good in the rain and those hats may have to come

in handy for more than just looks because the big brim may need to keep the rain off. under armour about to kick off a wave of retail earnings. is lulu lemon going to turn into a gem? stacey abrams is here with that. plus, iran oil sanctions kicking in tonight at midnight tonight. will iran really defy the u.s. and around the world, take you liveo topec's hq, when we roll on.

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that's kind of a cool shot you have the capitol building encased in fog when you have moisture in the air and warm weather, i'm told, fog happens. welcome back another big batch of earnings to go through today all from retailers. under armour reporting before the opening bell tomorrow, adidas joining us now to talk about all of this and how retail is shaping up, and we promise not to spill water on her. move that cup. >> it's way far away. >> under armour, up 20% this year does it deserve to, based on what you're seeing >> probably not. under armour has gone through a phase where they overexpanded, went into kohl's, downstreamed now they're right sizing the

inventory. margins should improve they distributed as much as they possibly can i would argue their top line needs to shrink further, particularly in an offspace channel. >> do they want to keep going down market? >> no. they failed to segment nike has the premium, mid market they haven't done that effectively. where are they now basically you're seeing vendors shrink their space in the stores because not only is there so much competition that's created by themselves but also, you know, the shelf space is shrinking for them. >> the numbers maybe don't belie the stock? let's switch gears now adidas has benefited, sneakers, sort of the look is that dying? is retro finally becoming in the past >> i think retro has been here, what, five years, particularly in europe and now in the states about three years, is finally starting to slow down here so, adidas was the first one,

original retro, retro brand. that has slowed down of course, the stock is up big because beyonce, 133 million instagram followers, she's going to do a collaboration. nike is still the one to beat. >> you don't think beyonce can drag adidas back into the future, however you want to put it >> i don't think beyonce will be uh-oh, uh-oh, terrible joke. >> crazy in love. >> we should do a duet. >> no. >> with the edge. >> that would not be a duet. that would be three. >> sorry. >> let's talk about lulu lemon they may put mini gyms into their stores is this a good strategy? >> what you're hearing in retail it's all about experience, how can we drive the customer? lulu lemon talked about doing a test store with a meditation

room, gym, kohl's recently talked about throwing planet fitness into some stores is it going to become a gym? lulu lemon are starting to do deodorant, dry hair shampoo. >> they want to keep you there what's wrong with that >> absolutely nothing but look at the ecosystem and you say what are these retailers going to look like >> urban outfitters bought the peeizzeria chain. >> it didn't change the game. >> it didn't help? >> what changes the game is looking at bigger sizes. nike, lulu lemon, they've looked at women's sizing and starting to speak to the consumer differently. by the way the average american woman is a size 14 or above, 70% of them are. >> 70% >> 70% of u.s. women are size 14

or above most of these brands don't even have a size 14. >> not just women. as a consumer, i would like to consider myself husky. >> big boned as my mother would say. >> that's it, big boned. >> you go into certain stores, nothing fits nothing fits i leave. are other retailers going to have to adjust i understand you want to be cool and slim but they'll have to adjust to the changing face and changing body of the america and, by the way, global consumer. >> and also, remember hollister? they used to be the original skinny skinny make teenagers feel bad about themselves. they evolved. >> 17-year-old models strutting outside the stores. >> they evolved, are more inclusive. nike, their messaging is so different now when you go into the store. they see women on the wall in running gear. >> that look like us. >> that look human what i would like to see from lulu lemon is to roll that out in store. >> roll it out in store. >> roll it out.

>> stacey, you're dry, you're safe there appreciate you as always. >> thank you venezuelan unrest. president trump targeting opec is there a perfect storm brewing? joining us from headquarters, lena coming up. petra neovmca talks about disaster recovery and one stat about giving away will blow your mind

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but is that enough? i need tech that understands my business. i need tech that works at scale. dear tech... dear tech... dear tech... we're exploring quantum to develop next generation energy. we're using blockchain to help make sure food stays fresh. we're using ai to help create more accessible health care. we're using iot to create new kinds of digital wallets. let's see some more headlines about that. let's expect more from technology. let's put smart to work. welcome back and good morning. 5:50 following two major stories from two opec nations iranian sanctions kick in full effect today exemptions to buy iranian oil expire today iran's president says it will buck the sanctions and continue to produce and sell oil. more protests expected across

venezuela. live from opec's headquarters, lena krchcroft. i'm surprised we're not seeing a bigger move in oil prices this morning. are you? >> reporter: there was a big u.s. inventory build yesterday i think everybody is waiting to see what the impact of these sanctions are going to be. i mean, we fully expect iran to lose about 700,000 to 800,000 additional exports so this will be meaningful. the question is, can president trump get the countries in opec to put more barrels on the market last week he called opec, spoke to the saudis. people here question whether that call took place but people are waiting to see, will opec step up and put the barrels on the market to make up for the iranian losses >> and will they will the saudis react?

>> reporter: i mean, the saudis have signaled that they will increase production but stay within the opec quota. you're basically looking at probably an additional 500,000 barrels out of saudi arabia, not the million last summer. interestingly enough, russians have signaled they will stay in the opec agreement only man that matters, vladimir putin, signaling they will stay within the opec agreement. how do you get the additional barrels if opec will not give them to you? we have to watch closely your second story, what happens in venezuela. it has been falling rapidly with the protests taking place. is the united states going to put more sanctions on venezuela, will we see more barrels out of that country >> i'll give you the bear case for the price of oil, helima is this right or wrong we ramp up production. saudis ramp up production because we're trying, as you just noted, to compensate for

iran and venezuela, but iran does what they say they continue tosell oil they turn off the transponders on the ships and sell it on the black market to china, india and others and suddenly there's too much oil floating around. >> reporter: i think the saudis are very concerned about not row peting the mistake they made last summer where they surged production going into the iran sanctions decision and oversupplied the market. saudi summer surge would be a bear case for oil. i think they're going toadopt wait and see approach. and in terms of will iran cheat? of course there will be some cheating, but countries that are exposed to the u.s. capital markets, south korea, japan, those refineries will go to zero companies like reliance, they need to raise money in the united states. i think reliance will basically cut iranian imports. i think this will be very meaningful for president trump, the real question is, will you release a

strategic petrol reserve >> 1.4 million barrels a day, twice as big as our biggest refine refinery do you believe trump will ultimately release barrels from the spr? >> reporter: i mean, i think if we get to a $4 a gallon situation, the u.s. consumer is complaining, i think president trump is very sensitive to this issue, so i would expect him to release the spr. that could tamper prices, but the question is, are you signaling a market is too tight? so how is very important as well that will be his main option if opec and if the saudis do not deliver a large output increase this summer and we continue to see these problems in producer nations. >> if the conflict with iran ramps up and they close the strait of hormuz and we have to take action, what happens to the price of a barrel of oil >> reporter: that is your ultimate bull case for oil brian, not that the iranians

could close the strait of hormuz if they start to do more aggressive exercises around the strait, that could put risk premium back into the price of oil. also what you should watch very closely, do the iranians break the seals on their nuclear facilities and row start their nuclear program? do they potentially withdraw from the nonproliferation treaty they're making noise of doing that those are the type of aggressive iranian actions that could rise prices, so watch the iranian response very closely. >> important stories we'll let you get into opec's headquarters in that building right behind you in austria. helima croft, thank you. random but important we sat down with petra nemcova

this week. co-founder of the disaster charity all hands and hearts we asked nemcova about the recovery efforts still under way in puerto rico, following hurricane maria, that need we remind you hit nearly two years ago. here is what she told us. >> the funding is not there. it's been so heartbreaking the government of puerto rico estimated the damage to be 24 to 32 billion on housing only and the u.s. government committed to 1 billion so the gap is so tremendous. >> whoa also asked about the best ways to help t wasn't what she said about giving that caught our attention it's what she said about throwing away. >> we have to think about the whole arc of a natural disaster and on average it takes four to five years for families to go back on their legs we cannot forget them two months later. and the same happens with goods. 60% of goods end up in a

landfill. >> think about that. 60%. thank you very much. you're watching "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" will pick up the coverage next.

good morning fed holding rates steady the one word that fed chair jay powell said that made wall street sit up and take notice. facebook is reportedly negotiating new privacy changes with the ftc that would hold mark zuckerberg personally accountable for any privacy issues details straight ahead. plus, uber's road to the ipo. different ratings. we have them both. tom white and dan nuys will tell us what they expect individually from the ride-hailing company. thursday, may 2nd, 2019, and

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