tv Squawk Box CNBC May 3, 2019 6:00am-9:00am EDT
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right now. >> welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernan. becky quick is with us live this morning in omaha at berkshire hathaway's annual meeting. getting ready for it, becky. what's coming up >> good morning, guys. it's good to see you what's going on, joe you're on camera >> do you know what the number is. >> i saw that. >> she looked ahead. >> i don't have the number in advance. do you >> no. >> but i did look ahead to the rundown. >> you know what the number is for expected, though it was just on worldwide exchange >> what was he saying?
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>> ask so many questions this time he was just saying that there's -- it's a technicality he was saying it's a technicality it might not match up to the jobs report. obviously, adp blew numbers out of the water he is not sure if that's going to be the case. >> some of the comments i want to hear about what he said about charlie's comments about -- that's coming up.
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lynn moore and -- also investor mahero will be here. don graham of graham holdings. joe from td ameritrade, redit co-founder and berkshire board member sue decker. eclectic group of people because that's what this meeting is all about. it's a gathering of all kinds of young and old investors and technology old value investors. this really runs the gambit. they call it a celebration of capitalism, and that's what we're going to see over the course of the next few days. we're going to get a taste of that this morning. >> i'm reading about this big piece on charl yil in the journal. nutso. >> quote it. i don't have my notebook in front of me, but i read what charlie was saying got his reaction to each of those comments wells fargo is a major holding for berkshire hathaway they're the largest shareholders in them, and charlie kind of -- wait here it is i have it here should i read it >> i'm reading about designing
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architectural dorm rooms and how he doesn't like windows, and he doesn't like wasteful sfas, and being i mean, it's a front page, and it's really amazing. how many books have you read about architecture >> right none >> he has all these great ideas for -- and he gives loofr money. >> i had no idea >> only because -- >> i did >> becky and i spent time with him over the years, and architecture is a good thing that's his hobby people play golf, and he is into architecture >> i have do get more into it. he doesn't like windows, and he wants them to be like cruise ships. curves and buildings and -- >> he has some ideas about what -- there's a charlie munger aesthetic, if you will >> excellent
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3w08 a.m. eastern. the number to watch is 190,000 that's how many jobs that wall street is expecting to see remember, last month's number was way ahead of what the street was forecasting showing a strong bounce back from february's drop-off in hiring we'll see. u.s. equity futures after a couple of triple digit losses in the dow. some weakness. a losing streak in the nasdaq we haven't seen in quite a while. the dow has indicated up 37 points it was up about 60 first thing when i got in, and those gands a little bit nasdaq indicated up about 34, as can you see, and the s&p indicated up six and a half. overnight in asia, exchanges in tokyo and shanghai were closed for public holidays. a stock was higher by half of
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1% stocks in south korea fell by .three-quarters of 1%. take a quick gander at that. mostly green except tore italy, and then treasuries, i looked when i got up 256 go or so. >> we want to get back to becky quick who was in omaha getting ready for the big berkshire hathaway annual meeting. becky. >> and awaiting your arrival too. remember i told you how worried we were and i didn't -- i think we got more questions than we've ever gotten. >> and more thoughtful questions, too >> that too. >> it was good questions you want to ask. guys, you know warren buffett has a lot of investment is in
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plenty of different companies, but this week we learned earlier that he actually made the rare move of stepping into the middle of a competitive takeover battle he has sht made any comments when i caught up with him yesterday, i asked him how that deal came together >> that -- that's been a week ago. last friday i got a call in the middle of the afternoon from ryan moynihan, ceo of bank of america, and he said that they were involved in financing. >> i said fine, and i think later on they said this.
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they were traveling, and he called me the following morning. she and oscar brown came arrived at 10:00 we had a deal by 10:00, and they had us committed unekwifically come hell or high water to $10 trillion if the deal is made with anadarko they had to get their own board approval, but they walked away with whether 911 happened or anything like that, they had $10 billion for the deal >> did you do this because you're betting on the oil industry or on oil prices? >> oil prices are the big determiner over time
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obviously. same thing is true if you are in copper oil prices are enormously important, but i'm familiar with oxydental. if i were there, i wouldn't know what to do it was -- it was a sensible deal for us sensible deal for them that's -- i propose it, and they decided whether it makes sense when we finished it, they went back to the plane, i called, and dfs on the west coast. it was 9:00 his time i said we need to get this done bhu every by tomorrow evening. i said woel be with their lawyers, and i assume they'll get similar instrucks. whatever it takes. within -- >> we mentioned the plane, and there was a story. i'm not sure if you saw that
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about the plane that they took out here it got picked up about i some people who were scouting for it and someone wrote an article about it a guy who has been tracking it saying, hey, maybe this is what's really happening there. >> i read about that i read it about it years ago that fellow turned around and found out to be correct. i think i should point out anybody out there who wants to do business with us that if they take a net jet plane, nobody will be able to track them you cannot track who is going from here to there, and if you use a company play, and it's a big way of running a billboard that i'm into -- >> typical buffett fashion he managed to get a commercial
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in for next jet in the profit of this entire thing. let's get back to it whachs particularly interesting was that brian moynihan placed the call originally who brought him into this deal we talked to buffett about several things yesterday we also learned that berkshire hathaway is investing in am zplon and that will come out in the 13 net filing in a couple of weeks. however, buffett says that he was not behind that decision obviously, he has other people in the office who are making decisions too. >> if you have money, it's sort of easier to make money. that's working so well with buffett. you go back to the goldman and ge i mean, committee get -- it's for his -- his -- gist his credibility. think about where rates are and what pension plans are dealing with in terms of long-term assumptions about guaranteed
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returns per year if you can just do 8%, you just for a large part of your portfolio, if you could do 8% or 10%. >> it's so good to be warren buffett with that deal >> it's not just -- look, it is the good housekeeping seal of approval that comes about that, but it's also having the cash. if you are willing to sit around and have 11 billion dollars in cash on hand -- >> can you do with it in a day and a half where. >> he got criticized all the time >> i think about -- >> it's like here's what we're thinking, warren what would we need he is just apparently 8% if they say yes, i don't think it takes much longer than that, does it? >> think about it. if you had to go to a bank, look, the fact that ryan
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moynihan was the one calling remember what happened >> what's it called? what is that thing you need? what is that called? >> the vig it's like the vig. >> the vig >> confetti. i caught it. >> it's weird when it happens. >> they talked about their deal that was a smaller dollar amount we assumed that that was still the better offer objection gentle will have a hard time coming up with the funding. there's a reason they're paying the premium. it's because they had to >> exactly
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>> what i love about it the next 24 hours actually, because of the new technology that's being put in by the faa net jet has a real advantage >> yes, but -- >> you don't know. >> all you'll see is that it's a next jet plane, and that's historically -- >> you won't know -- >> there is actually a way to actually protect effectively fly delta, if you will you can apply to the faa so that when your plane is in the air, you ant -- it can't be tracked the new technology, everybody will be tracking no matter what. sfwa did you have steak last night? >> i'm busy. i'm working here >> okay. i don't know
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>> i know. i know what you are thinking >> you know, it used to be the other place that closed down, too. >> a lot of -- >> it's here, but -- pick low's was the other favorite place piccolo's closed down. >> until beyond meat -- >> you like those burgers yesterday? >> we didn't have them we didn't eat them >> you didn't? >> some people on our staffer had them, and the comments weren't to positive. i need to try a million. >> go to burger king, you can get that impossible burger >> i guess i'll do theup bell alone. anyway >> get an ice cream at dari queen. dproo bring it back.
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an update on boeing. the company's own test pilots recordly lacked key details of the flight control systems in the 737 max jet. that's according to a story that was just published by the "wall street journal" in which it says that boeing limited the role of its own pilots in the final stages of the development of those systems. people familiar with the matter say that departs from a long-standing practice of seeking detailed enput from pilots the 737 max was involved in, as you know, two recent fatal crashes in the entire fleet remains grounded >> facebook looking to make good on its pledge to crack down on what it calls dangerous individuals and organizations. the social network now bans several personalities who whose views it deems too inflammatory to be shared
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nation of islam leader lewis farrakhan and activist laura loomer the move follows months of criticism that they haven't done enough to prevent abuse and hate speech it says it would remove pages and ktsd set up to represent the people it banned in the past facebook has also stopped other users from supporting or praising the banned individual. even if the plays is inrelate to hate oorn invite u violent conduct. this all likely is to be praised on one side of the ooirlt, but perhaps criticized on the other. now, this project will allow users to -- and use them towards payroll to reward other users. the "wall street journal" reporting that facebook has talked visa, master card, and paying the processor first data
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about that project that's one to keep our eyes on as well. coming up, when we return, a lot more on squawk beyond me shares they are soaring very big. the company performing the best -- we show you the big over move in that stock and where it's headed next right after the break. we're finally back out in our yard, but so are they. scotts turf builder triple action. it kills weeds, prevents crabgrass and feeds so grass can thrive, guaranteed. our backyard is back. this is a scotts yard. plants capture co2. what if other kinds of plants captured it too? if these industrial plants had technology
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>> shares of gee i don't understand meat up this morning. the maker of a plant-based meat alternative made its public debut yesterday. the shares of beyond closed myer yesterday. the company now has a valuation of 3.8 billion >> unbelievable. right? >> really was. it's not a veggie burger not a veggie burger. >> not a veggie burger there's fat in there it's not about a healthy alternative. it's more about climate and all of that. electric cars, and there won't be any more hurricanes >> i'm just telling you. >> when we a couple of years ago when we were trying to -- like, the grades you see on hamburgers, that is actually something that makes it edible
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they had -- they were trying to add something back in. >> it's the equivalent of that >> otherwise, you know, i don't know >> i'm going to take -- >> we'll go to a burger king together >> when you -- if you stop flying and you have an electric car and you don't eat carbonated -- drink carbonated beverages anymore and stop breathing, will that leave room for me to be able to do all -- can i still fly and have a regular meat burger? >> if you walk the walk -- >> you're not walking the walk yet. >> a lot of co2 that comes out you are flying today, aren't you? are you offsetting that? you can. >> i should. right. i should this deal valued at more than $10 billion.
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snoo you might say it's peanuts as opposed to what's going on. that's all fine and good, andrew are they going to remain the question is what is sin layer doing? what are they doing? will they remain sports networks >> the likelihood is that they will remain sports networks. i know there's speculation about a news product that could ultimately -- >> fox alternative news. >> that is possible. >> that way i don't have to hear every guy's liberal political leanings i could watch sports without having to watch it with the mute button on, where. >> or just sports about sports instead of sports about how trump is going to hell
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>> i continue would appeal to you. >> if they -- they didn't need to tell me how to think. >> that $on 10 billion number does not include the yes net bork, and there is a separate conversation going on around which would be the most valuable network of the group. >> coming up, we're ready -- the april jobs report. prediction up next then, later, becky's breaking news on berkshire hathaway, and amazon we'll show you what warren buffett said about the investment as we head to break, here's what will keep yesterday's 500 winners and losers let's build a better world for investing.
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>> good morning. take a look at the u.s. equity markets at this hour we have the big jobs report coming up at 8:30 a.m. eastern time these numbers may likely move in all sorts of directions depending on what number we get. the dow looks like it would open higher at 48 points higher nasdaq up by 41 or 42 points higher s&p 500 looking to open about eight points higher. we have stocks to watch as well to tell you about. shake shack is surging after that chain reported better than expected first quarter revenues. same store sales rising more than 3%. shake shack also boosting its revenue outlook for the year i don't think they sell either impossible burgers or the other ones that also jumped yesterday.
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he'll talk about those shares have ww are jumping today. companies formerly known as weight watchers -- it's so used to say ww because you wanting to wwe or wwf >> ww ranger >> reporting a narrower than expected first quarter loss. revenue came up just shy of estimates also raising its guidance for the year. then there's adidas. take a look at this stock. leading the gains in germany this morning profit rose 17% in the first quarter. the broader sales declined due to supply chain issues also adidas's ceo will be on squawk on the street today at 10:00. zplu mean. >> he will be on >> yes >> just wondering what the ceo -- >> i just wondered what his name was. it's in the prompter the april jobs report just under -- it's a tough one. you should two hours away. joining us with a preview, chief u.s. economist from matt west.
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>> there are other markers that suggest to me that not much has changed and we are still looking at a pace of employment growth we're probably slightly below 200, but to be at this stage of the cycle and to be even thinking about gains that are north of 150 or 170,000 is really impressive. >> when the 3.2 gdp number was printed as well, and we're going to have jason furman on later, there were a lot of people, and i don't know whether they're conflicted or whether there really is something to their argument, but that was seen as masking a lot of underlying weakness what was it? inventory? >> inventories and trade did make really large contributions. >> they don't count? >> well, again, we care most about the underlying level of demand, and there's no question that business and consumer spending slowed in the first quarter. a lot of it is the math. we had very weak numbers around the turn of the year that sort of sets up for the quarterly averages and the
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growth rates still look lower. the important thing is we had really strong numbers for march. we are set up for even though cat goeshz that look softer underlying in q1 to show much better performance again, you just got to look through a lot of this noise, and the underlying growth of the economy continues to be very solid. labor market trends are very positive there just is not a lot. i know we're all looking for any sign of things cracking, but when you step back, there really -- there just -- you have an economy that continues to perform well >> all right book far work at a place called bleakly, which is perfect for you your view of the world is pretty bleak, most of the time.
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>> with the eased regulatory environment and system particularly in the corporate side like you said yesterday, i hear a but koong. >> not necessarily a but you know, i -- i don't want to cut did back to monetary policy, but when you have rates just low for so long, you have a lot of zombie companies that shouldn't exist, and i think that helps explain why productivity has been helped for so long. luckily in the fiscal side, weave been able to hopefully offset that, and that is sustainable. like i said, it is a missing
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piece, and we're going to have a huge boost to sustainable growth not just cyclical balance. >> did you look at the bdp number in the last couple of jobs numbers with a raised eyebrow as if this is making things look better than they really where >> i like to smooth things out i don't want to take one month or one quarter and say this is it i think if you take the first quarter and the second quarter, it will still be around 2.5. today there could be up side to the jobs number. i think if you look at the last three months, we've averaged 180,000 jobs the last six months, about 200 when up side surprise of 2220.30, it gets us to 190 i think that's important >> after that one -- >> smooth it out >> out liar that we saw that had everyone >> the jobs market is still good the space of firings is still very low we're averaging 180 to 200
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>> there is talk of potential up side supply. the government starts to hire work ez for the census that will be the next thing that people will -- if you get a stronger number, i know you don't like the cavats, but the cavat people will say it's all government, and the hiring for the census it's important to look at the underlying trend, and i think that's going to continue to be very solid >> thank you michelle it's michelle and peter. thank you. >> coming up, a lot more on "squawk box. we're going to get back to gek e becomy quick, who is in omaha getting ready for the big berkshire hathaway annual meeting. making shoouz news last night in an interview with rar ren buffett. he made it clear he is not buying amazon himself that is, but someone at berk hire is. that story right after the break. later, we're going to talk to an uber investor about why he is calling for changes to the company's board right before the expected ipo good story we want to hear about it stay tuned you're watching squawk here on c bs in.
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he tells us every once in a while what he is buying. this time, though, he told us what he is not buying. >> i tell you what, you'll see in the 13 outlook come out in a couple of weeks, which may cause you to ask me that question, but doesn't really -- it's not significant from my standpoint one of the -- to our fellows in the office that manage money -- >> todd and ted. >> todd and ted. one of them bought some amazon, but it will show up on the 13 f. have been a fan of amazon and jeff bezos for a while >> yes it's somebody else's
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buffett says he is not the one behind this. todd and ted are the two managers he brought in in 2011 and 2012 they each manage about $13 billion in their own portfolio, but even though he said it's not him, you can see shares of am zplon are up they're up 2 and 1/3 percent right now. what et cetera interesting when you start looking through and thinking about what this means, i mean, we say that they have much smaller portfolios. it's about $13 billion each. ek kwet port photos is $2120 billion, and then you have to remember there's the cash that buffett and munger are managing that more than 110 billion $10 billion which has been submitted to this oxydental bid for anadarko when we come back, though, the top executive from two berkshire companies. benjamin many moore and brooke's running company dan weber will join us after this break to tell us what they see in business right now.
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owned by berkshire hathaway. and gentlemen, thank you for being here good seeing you both. >> thanks for having us. >> thank you, becky. >> jim, good seeing you again. and dan, welcome >> thank you. >> this is your first time here as ceo of the company. >> my 18th trip, but first time as ceo. >> what is it all about? i know you have these meetings where you get together -- you had dinner last night where everybody met. dan, what can you tell us from your first time through this >> for me, it was exciting to meet the other ceos of the companies. while i've met some occasionally, being able to network, talk about our businesses and what's going on and the economy and such is a benefit. >> any advice you can give dan from these meetings and what you've seen along the way? >> i think the networking is incredible it's the one time of year you get to meet the other ceos and compare notes of what they're seeing in the business and economy. really smart people in the room. so i always get a lot of value out of it. >> have things changed from an operating perspective with greg abel there, who is now kind of in charge of all of these companies, at least on this side of the business? >> for us, it hasn't
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it's business as usual greg visited us last year. we took him through our strategy, much as we did with warren our annual plans are in place and he's supportive. it's been a fabulous transition. he's been a great resource for us >> you two are both in consumer-facing businesses, and that's good for us because it gives us a little bit of a read on what you're seeing in the economy right now. dan, for you, housing's got to be a really big deal what can you tell us about the strength of the housing market in terms of what you're seeing >> yeah, existing home sales is always a big predictor for us for success, and we're seeing good success with that and what we're doing is we're looking further downstream we're talking to actual residential painting contractors. they're booked well into the spring and into the summer we're going into our busy season right now, over 65% of our total revenues in the two quarters in the middle of the year so we're seeing good things with all of the good news out of the economy. things are looking very bright. >> we've got a jobs number coming up today. obviously, jobs ties into the economy and into housing from what you're seeing, you would expect good numbers on these things >> we expect good numbers.
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the one thing about the painting contractor, with the hot economy and job, they're struggling to find workers that's been a struggle for them. but other than that, the good news in the economy's a benefit. >> jim, what are you seeing now in terms of what people are willing to pay >> it's interesting. i think retail is stable, much more so than it was two, three years ago. but i would still describe it as uneven the spring was a little bit soft april was better but i think there are haves and have-nots. people are making choices, and they have so many. we had a record year last year, all-time record of 26% growth and high-water marks, up year to date but you have to earn it. it's all market share, not market growth. >> last time we spoke, you were concerned about the tariffs and what that meant. you said you were looking for ways to exit china and look for manufacturing in other places, maybe vietnam? >> exactly and a lot of our industry is in vietnam. we were watching it through the fall we thought they were going to hit january 1st.
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there was a march 1 date we hope an agreement is nearby, but we had to make a decision. we're making five to ten-year sourcing decisions, so we moved the bulk of our manufacturing out of china we'll be principally in vietnam and will add a third country later, probably next year. but it was a 45% tariff on a running shoe it just wouldn't have worked so, we've already made decisions to move out of china for the most part. >> does that mean you're not watching the trade talks very closely at this point? >> you know, we couldn't wait. and the risk was too significant. and long term, you know, we've got good partners that have capacity in vietnam as well, so we were able to make that move it's not as easy for every brand. some of the factories are now full in vietnam. but we were able to do it. so it's the right long-determine decision for us. >> is there a chance that any of that manufacturing would ever come back to the united states >> you know, we're going to be prototyping in small runs personalized, custom footwear. we think possibly next year. but it's going to be small
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volumes. it's going to be a long time before the infrastructure, the materials, and the automation, frankly, is ready. there's still a lot of labor in the product. >> dan, let's go back to what you were saying, just about having trouble finding people, paying contractors, having trouble finding people to show up for the job, because it is a tight labor market right now. >> yeah, it truly is and the thing is, there's lots of work to be had out there. you have the forces of the baby boomers doing less of their own diy, looking to hire painters, and then the younger folks are dual-income, time-starved, and hiring things as well. so, when we talk to painting contractors, that's the number one concern they have is they have plenty of work, there's work to be done out there, but they can't find people to apply the paint. >> it's not just painting, it's across the home contractor business writ large, right >> it is. >> this is a big issue how do you handle that or deal with that or try to tackle that when you're dealing with an economy so fully employed? >> we have programs in place where we're working with painting contractors now to try to save them time, give them some time in their day back. and some of the initiatives we
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have under way are to do that. we call them keep the painter painting, keep them on the job sites, give them time they need to use their time wisely. >> if there's one issue each of you are concerned with, what is the thing you're keeping an eye on >> i think it's global trade i think for our economy to be really solid and growing long term, there has to be strong, fair, global trade we're hopeful that american goods are demanded around the world, that those doors don't shut we have great business in europe, plan to enter china next year, and we're just hopeful that the energy and motion around trade gets settled. >> we're out of time, but i want to thank you both very much for being with us, jim and dan appreciate it. >> it was great. >> thank you. >> joe, back to you in the studio. >> i believe we -- can we get into this for a second >> i just want to know how much these shoes are going to be worth. are your guests still there? i want to talk to -- >> yeah, they're still here. >> okay, so, this is a brooks special edition berkshire
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hathaway shoe with a picture of warren buffett in the middle can you see that so, i want to know if this is going to become a collector's item and whether we should never wear these and just keep them in the box. >> we've had one a few years ago like this, right, becky? i have a pair from years ago like this. >> yes, yes. >> do you know what stock-x is that's dan's -- >> we've had these -- >> i know, but -- >> do they run big or small? because these are 11s. i asked for 10 1/2. >> they should be true to size and you've got to collect one every year they may be worth more, no guarantees, but you're going to enjoy them running. >> but worth more when you wear them or not wearing them >> i like the way they look. >> they'll feel great when you wear them. >> okay, thank you. >> i'm going to wear them, because i'm going -- >> we like them to wear out, andrew. >> thank you good to see you. i'll see you out there tomorrow. >> light, too. coming up, we're going to bring you much more from omaha, ghafr e eabei,mario gall rit tethbrk. ♪ cha, ch changes
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>> the company isn't even public yet, and there are already investors calling for board changes. we're going to talk to one of them about the demands. berkshire hathaway entering the jungle, picking up some amazon. >> i've been an idiot for not buying. >> this hour, buffett on the fed, inflation, and leadership at wells fargo the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ ♪ why you wanna give me a runaround ♪ ♪ surefire way to speed things up when all it does is slow me down ♪ good morning, everybody! welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. i'm in omaha for the berkshire hathaway shareholders meeting. our guests include mario gabelli, here and ready to go, don graham of graham holdings, td ameritrade chairman jim moglia along with many others. but first joe has a look at the jobs report. we're less than 90 minutes
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away from the release of the april jobs report. economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to grow by 190,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at holding at 3.8%. average hourly wages are expected to tick up by what we've been seeing recently, 3%, which is better than it has been, but not what everyone would hope for at some point let's check the futures at this hour, which had been in positive territory, but just marginally so for the dow after a couple of triple-digit losses on wednesday and thursday dow is rebounding to the tune of 45 points. the nasdaq is strong, up 37. amazon is a story we're talking about, and it's probably helping the nasdaq, up about 40 points there's the ten-year indicated at 2.55%. okay, we have other big headlines as well this hour. it will be a very busy day for commentary on the jobs report and other economic matters, and much of it will be right here on cnbc steve liesman is at the hoover institution monetary conference taking place in california, and
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he's going to be speaking to hoover's john taylor at 8:40 eastern time today after the numbers break and he'll have live interviews with james bullard and loretta mester later along with robert kaplan shares of meat substance maker beyond meat are once again jumping again in the premarket the stock went public at $25 per share, finished the day trading at $65.75, making it the most successful unicorn, decacorn going so far we're looking right now at that stock up another 10% in the premarket. you always have to then wonder, was it a successful ipo or not, given the pricing of it all. looks successful it means the company lost out on a lot of that big gain in terms of the cash that would have gone to their own coffers. >> what they had left and didn't sell is now worth $73 -- >> worth more as well. verizon is seeking buyers for tumblr
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tumblr is among the assets verizon acquired back when it bought yahoo in 2017 the paper says it's unclear how much verizon might get for tumblr and there's no guarantee that a sale will actually happen tumblr was really sort of the big franchise merger or acquisition under marissa mayer's leadership of yahoo at the time i think she paid close to $1 billion for that company. meantime, back to becky, who's in omaha ahead of the big berkshire hathaway annual meeting this morning becks. >> hey, andrew good to see you guys again tens of thousands of investors are gathering here in omaha to hair from warren buffett i spoke with him last night, and we talked about the leadership at one of his biggest holdings, wells fargo. listen in. i don't know if you saw, but charlie gave an interview today to the "wall street journal," and he says that he wishes tim sloan was still running the bank do you >> well, i was 100% behind tim sloan, as i told you the day that it turned out that his resignation was announced. he told me the day before.
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i think tim sloan, from everything i know about him, is an excellent banker, and i was delighted when he was running the bank, and it just got so he felt he couldn't be helpful under the circumstances that existed. he decided it was time, but i would never ask for his resignation. >> other headlines came out of that charlie said he doesn't want a wall street guy making the damn decisions around there, i think that's what he said, "the damn decisions. >> may have said worst than that. >> you have said similar things, maybe more politic than he did what's wrong with a wall street man or woman why do you want a main street banker >> there are plenty in wall street that would be capable, well, certainly dozens that would be capable of running wells fargo. but they would not be -- they would be pinatas from now until the election time, and they
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would face questions that aren't really questions, but senators and congressmen that are using a hearing to make a statement. and they wouldn't be listening to what they said or anything of the sort they'd be poison in washington, and wells doesn't need poison in washington and frankly, anybody that wants a job and is good enough to take that job shouldn't want it, either i mean, it's a terrible way to spend your time. >> right just in terms of what washington's doing so, it's nothing you have against wall street. it's just -- >> oh, no. we own stock in jpmorgan we own stock in goldman sachs -- >> bank of america, goldman sachs. >> oh, sure. no, no, there's a lot of people that are very capable of running very good banks. i think we've got the very best of them. it's just under these political circumstances, wall street associated with banks associated with one that people can make political speeches about is just going to be poison between now and the election
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>> charlie had a few other things to say. let me quote a few things to you -- >> uh-oh. >> because he really laid into dick kavosich and -- he said "he never stops talking and is full of himself he would not learn anything from anybody. what do you think? >> i like dick kavosovich. dick expresses himself very forcefully, charlie expresses himself very forcefully and maybe the two doesn't mix very well. >> but you like dick kavosovich? >> dick, he was there during the financial panic, and wells -- wells came out of the panic better than i think any major bank and when wachovia needed saving, i think it was great that wells was there, and kavosovich i believe was running things -- i'm not sure when he turned the baton over to john. >> speaking of john stumpf, charlie said "he was almost as bad, but not as loud and
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persistent." >> well, i don't know. i would say he was as good, and you can follow the rest of it. >> you're going to have more things to probably clean up from charlie after he says these things this week >> yeah, this is just a warm-up to next week i'm glad you're sort of getting me in shape here now we turn to an investor who has owned shares of berkshire hathaway for more than 30 years mario gabelli is here, gamco investors chairman and ceo you've been coming here how many years? >> i don't know, let's call it a quarter of a century, not that long probably -- you know, we sponsor a dinner tonight for columbia business school. we pay for it, and so it's a value investing mecca. >> right and this is where you come instead of churchill downs, which you own stock in churchill downs. >> we own churchill downs, but that's because we like live entertainment. we like dealing with beyonce and that sort of thing, like screening music, vending we like companies like that. we're buying sony, even though
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there is an air pocket because of the shutdown in tokyo, a handover so, looking at those areas -- baseball, basketball, atlanta braves everyone watching today, becky, should buy some atlanta braves they can own a piece of a baseball team. stock's $28, 60 million shares, and malone is going to sell it. >> you know, live entertainment is great -- >> that's three or four years. >> -- i understand your thinking, but baseball has struggled. attendance is down another 4% this year, and that's up against a year when they were going up against rough weather last year. everybody thought that was why what's wrong what's happened? that's in the parks. >> you're talking about one-quarter of the season. they're probably telling me that the yankees have a marvelous bench, you know, the atlanta braves are not doing as well but i'm not too concerned about that the answer is, past professional and amateur sports betting will put a little extra juice in it what happens is that, just like in tiger woods -- you were watching the last two holes --
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people were putting bets on that and they can do it in realtime and that's going to keep people watching television longer that's going to be great for advertising. it's going to be great for broadcasters so, it's a terrific opportunity -- like today, sinclair, which didn't buy tribune because of their own self -- some issues that they had -- regional sports network so, sports works, so baseball. watching it, they're going to get a piece of the betting, and we think it will do 30%, 40% up, and then you watch basketball. >> interesting it's not about putting people in these seats here it's about who's watching on television and what you can do with the camera aspect -- >> well, the revenue is important but i like to give product and content. on the other side of the coin, you have players like the phillies hired some chap that makes "x" dollars per year -- >> i'm even going to one of these games because we're so excited about it. >> that's kind of what we're doing in that regard. >> other than that, when you look around, what do you think of the deal environment? i mean, there have been some deals that have been popping up.
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we even see berkshire hathaway getting involved in the occidental side in that bid for anadarko what do you see? because you are the expert in mergers and accusations. >> warren's got a big pool of capital. he puts some bucks in to do as a standby. i don't know if that deal is going to go through, but assuming it does, he makes a nice return on his investment. someone is going to say, wow, you didn't do a green deal but he's going to do green deals. so, what warren -- when you look at berkshire at $310,000 a share, you're talking about 1.6 million shares, and they've got 10% of their holdings in one stock. it's apple that's almost 250 million shares at the price that it's selling at $200, is $50 billion. that is a nice investment. so you know, when they say how about golf, we need a new tiger woods, well, they got tiger woods back again so, where do we put the money in over the next five years we've got 7.5 billion people, 4.5 billion smartphones. what are they going to watch
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who's going to deliver it? 1.4 billion vehicles in the world. how are the chinese going to do? you've got an air pocket right now. what's going to happen when you go to electric what's going to happen to hybrids? infrastructure infrastructure a bridge fell in tennessee a bridge fell in genoa, italy. how do we have this deterioration? we have to come up with it. >> and they've been talking about infrastructure forever, and devil's in the details >> the devil's in politics. >> but what happens? you would think this would be the easiest decision that both sides could get behind, spending money on infrastructure, and yet, for years we've been talking about it and nothing has materialized. >> well, from my point of view, how do you pay for it? it's not a gasoline tax anymore. you also have to have a vehicle tax, because electrics don't use gas. >> right. >> so, as a result of that, some kind of a vehicle tax. and there's ways to do it. if i can figure it out, and i spent five seconds thinking about it, we know the money can come the question is, is there the will to do it? i was at a function yesterday. it took six years to get what
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was an obvious deal done through the city of new york and in other parts of the world, like china, you'd get it done in three days so, we have to eliminate the bureaucracy of not only how do we fund it, but how to get it done quickly so it's efficiently done. >> we just heard warren talking about how he doesn't really want to see a wall street banker brought in to wells fargo because of the political problems that it would create and the firepower that would be coming from washington with all of these people who are running for president and trying to make a name on it you've been pretty outspoken about some of the problems you've seen along the way, too, including with amazon, trying to build a second headquarters in new york city. >> well, about 50 years ago, i was working for lindsey to get him elected in new york, and his policies didn't work because he didn't anticipate the next down cycle. new york was almost bankrupt six years from now, we're going to have that kind of a chill factor so, bringing in a scale like amazon was going to do right next to laguardia in queens
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would have been a new input. so, that's a different issue how do we pay for that infrastructure where do we get the talent how do we remain competitive the things that we're doing in taxes are brilliant. going territorial. the rates are down that allows companies to come into the united states to create new opportunities. instead of thinking about us locating in shanghai, somebody in shanghai's going to say, hey, we've got to locate somewhere in the united states. >> because we changed our corporate tax structure. >> absolutely. but not only -- yes, not only the rate, but the whole approach toward territorial versus global, towards expensing capex. >> have you changed your approach as an investor because of those changes to the tax code >> well, you know, there are companies like techstron which we like, well run. the stock is intriguing, there's 230 million shares the stock's traded at $53 yesterday and we think there's a long runway for their airplanes. but a company buying it can take a 100% write-off today, instead
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of just taking it over an extended period of time. so, that's an element, but still have to come up with manufacturing at the right price, sell at the right price for the right customer and still the free market works with all of the problems. >> what's your outlook on the market these days, just in terms of the prices that we've seen? because bothcharlie munger and warren buffett have made comments to us this year that buying a company outright is more expensive than they'd seen than at just about any other time. >> that's just echoing what they've said before. is today's multiple even -- becky, when i start ad ted the , 40 years ago, 50 years ago when i started with the analyst, 40 years ago you were buying companies at three or four times cash flow. today they're ten, twelve. so, what he's saying is in light of the interest rates 2.5% on the ten-year, will you be able to look ten years out -- can those multiples that you have to pay today sustainable? and that's why he's probably sit
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back and said, i've put a quarter of -- you know, the amount of money that he's done in apple and what he's doing in amazon. >> well, that's what they say, that they can find stocks in the market that they like, but when you're trying to buy a company outright -- that's why they've got like $111 billion in cash sitting around because they can't find things to do with it. >> it's just a number. on the other side of the coin, the green new deal, buy distributed power -- solar, wind, but also have a battery that can maintain it do not allow ourselves to be stuck on the grid with all the cybersecurity issues that are there. so, where would i go look, warren could buy autonation, okay there's 90 million shares of 43.6 billion, but it's tiny. genuine parts is one of my favorite companies, extraordinary well managed, a global replacement parts company that benefits from inflation and maintains margins in an industry that's smart and the stock's selling at $102 with 147 million shares. and they're a great company.
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but somebody's got to make love. so somebody's got to go and warren have to go and say, come on, join us. that's not -- so, there are two parts. one is the economic structure. the other one is saying -- >> let's get things started. >> yeah, let's get started so, going back to occi, you know, that was pretty typical. you asked about financial engineering. on monday of this week, gardner denver, which has 200 shares located in milwaukee, and i was going to visit them, next week on tuesday or wednesday -- the stock was going to have, you know, drift along at 27.8. they bought a system from ingersoll-rand and the stock popped 30% so it goes to show there are pluses in the financial engineering, not only takeovers, but who's spinning off, who's doing it and ed reed and ed dupont is doing the same thing so -- >> there's always stuff out there. >> there's always a lot to do, and even though the market's discounted some of the chinese
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deal that will come -- it will be okay -- >> mario, it is always a pleasure to see you. thank you for joining us this morning. >> always a privilege to talk about baseball and basketball and beyonce. >> of course, the three bs andrew, you have news? we do have some news i'll see mario -- tell mario i say hello. love is always in the air with mario. in the meantime, we want to talk tesla real quick because we have another s.e.c. filing that's just breaking right now. this one an update to yesterday's filing, which detailed a common stock offering today's filing boosting the number of shares to be sold by tesla to nearly 3.1 million, up from about 2.7 million it goes on to say that ceo elon musk is interested in purchasing now up to 102 880,000 of those shares for $25 million remember yesterday it was $10 million. that filing said musk was interested in buying up to $10 million. now we're up to $25 million. the new filing also increases
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the size of the proposed convertible bond offering to $1.48 billion, up from $1.55 billion. of course, this would give the company, giving greater cushion -- there were questions even yesterday the stock did move yesterday because there was a view this was going to, of course, give him a little bit more runway this will give him even more runway into the view that some people thought maybe there wasn't enough money on the table. maybe this will satiate those with those questions >> tesla and beyond meat it's all coming together, kind of, isn't it electric cars. no more cow farts. it's weird that that happened the same day, is it not? >> you could use a battery-powered solar system and the cows could -- to cook the burger. >> have you seen the calculations of how much the carbon footprint of an electric car really is? it's not a slam dunk that it's better than internal combustion, the way the grid has to be >> that's fair currently currently. currently. you get the wind and solar changes. >> all right
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coming up, becky's going to have much more coming up from omaha. plus, we're going to hear from a shareholder group that's already calling for changes ahead of the ipo. and a programming note -- our eamon javers will sit down with vice president mike pence at 9:30 a.m. eastern time, following the jobs report. should be some venezuela, jobs, should be wide-ranging st ted you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc we're finally back out in our yard, but so are they.
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some news just out from marriott the company says ceo arne sorenson has been diagnosed with stage two pancreatic cancer. sorenson says the cancer was found early, it has not appeared to spread. he will continue in his job while undergoing treatment, which will begin with chemotherapy and then surgery is anticipated near the end of 2019 he says the cancer was discovered early it doesn't appear to have spread, and "i and my medical team are confident we can realistically aim for a complete cure in the meantime, i intend to continue working with the company i love let me make one request -- look ahead with me. we have great work ahead." he is a long friend of the show -- >> 68 years old, a fantastic manager and he's done remarkable
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things with that company, and we do wish him very well, arne. so, sorry to hear this, but we're all rooting for him. in the meantime, want to get back to omaha, where our -- oh, we're actually going to get back to omaha right after the break, where becky quick is, of course. don graham of graham holdings is going to be with her also a former facebook board member we're going to ask him about the challenges facing mark zuckerberg "squawk" returns from omaha in just a moment. but i didn't know how. i was working the same job for a few years. i had a degree and some experience but no career. i opened the careerbuilder app and found an awesome job at a company i love. it even built a resume for me with skills i didn't know i had. i applied with a tap. and i start on monday. careerbuilder. work can work.
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a $100 billion ipo may be in the works. the "wall street journal" now reporting that softbank is considering an ipo of that size for its vision fund. it's also said to be mulling the launch of a second fund of a similar size or longer softbank wants to take advantage of an accelerating start-up landscape. people always asked how they may exit these things. this may be a different type of exit for softbank and its investors. meantime, we want to get over to becky quick, who is, of course, in omaha, ahead of the berkshire hathaway annual meeting. becks. >> hey, thanks, andrew
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our next guest will catch us up on all things media. let's welcome don graham, graham holdings' chairman and also the former chairman and publisher of the "washington post" and a former facebook board member and don, thanks so much for being here today. >> becky, i'm thrilled this is a tradition. when did you start coming to omaha? when did you start interviewing warren the monday after this meeting? >> my first time for the annual meeting, we were just talking about it, it was 14 years ago. then i took a couple years off and then started coming back, and i think i started interviewing him the monday after back in 2008. >> and the report came out about the same time. >> yeah, about the same time. >> so, i'll tell you a story you may not know in 1973, i got a call from my mother, katherine graham, who was the ceo of the company and publisher of the "post." she said, "come up to my office, i want to show you something." she showed me a letter that started dear mrs. graham, i just bought 17% of your company, and
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here's about me and i like you so much as a ceo and this is why i bought the shares. this company's quite undervalued. she said, "have you ever heard of this guy" and it was signed warren e. buffett. i said, no, i've never heard of him. we both read three newspapers a day, and she hadn't heard of him. i hadn't heard of him. i'm pretty confident his name had never been in the "washington post" in business. he told me later it had been in the "post" when he was on the wilson high school golf team in 1946 but that letter could have come from anybody it could have come from the worst person in the united states, and it came from the best and she had the brains -- one of the best days she ever had in her life -- to go meet him and charlie, fly -- she'd been told, stay away from these wall street people, they're charming when they meet you and then they'll try to take you over she flew out, met him and charlie, came back and said to me, "don, these are the smartest people i've ever met." >> was she concerned were you concerned at that point
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of the idea of a hostile takeover because you heard of fed fund managers buying things up. >> she was -- that was -- she wasn't concerned about a hostile takeover she was concerned about a hostile investor, and she found she had wise, very friendly investor, wise enough to -- warren went on the board at the same meeting i did, september 1974, and stayed there until he turned 80. i think we were the last public board that he went off of before the kraft heinz board, which was a different matter, but he stayed on our board after coca-cola but then got off when he turned 80. >> wow so, a long, long history that you've had with him. >> i know, and we -- >> and you've been coming here for decades and decades. >> i don't know, about 20 years. not much longer than you, but a bit longer i'm not one of those people back in the national indemnity cafeteria like mario >> right you know, don, you are somebody
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who has been on a lot of boards and who has kind of watched many people come up one of them was the facebook board. and i realize you've been off that board for four or five years now. but you know mark zuckerberg very well. you knew him when he was a college student. you met him early on and you have been a huge defender of his. he has kind of been on this apology tour of some sort, where he's meeting with washington and kind of saying, here's how we're going to do things differently from here on out do you think it's effective at this point when do you think he has to do, as somebody who not only knows zuckerberg very well, but knows washington very well, too? >> well, i think facebook's in a tough situation. i think they've -- people will just say anything about him and believe anything about him, and the europeans are running around from google to facebook to amazon just fining companies any amount they want -- >> millions, usually. >> -- not because they're breaking laws, but because they're american and in washington, you know, it's easy right now to say a lot of things about facebook
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facebook is a corporation. it's run by mark zuckerberg and sheryl sandberg. they're trying to fix a bunch of things that were wrong and a bunch of things that moe lev lent actors sought that would go wrong, but we'll see you're right, i met mark when had a was 20, by a wild series of accidents and i would give this guy a chance to fix what's right i think he is a person of it integrity. i think sheryl's a person of integrity. they have a lot to work on as to their reputation they've been working in the software that is not the area of my expertise. i think their character is in each case really good. but they're in a tough spot and they both know it. >> it doesn't surprise me to see the european union throwing fines at these big tech companies. it does surprise me to hear politicians on both sides of the aisle in washington saying they want to start breaking up some of these big companies or heavily regulate them. have you been caught by surprise by this? >> they are saying that, and i think even regulating them to
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the extent that everybody's now talking about, i think it would be very bad for the country. i think it's very likely to happen i think the best thing that google and facebook have going for them is that not much actually gets done in washington but those companies have competitors. those competitors are chinese. and if facebook and google are hobbled by regulations, the rest of the -- the world leadership in tech is going to be handed to chinese companies, and i don't think that will be very good for your privacy. >> i want to talk to you about daca and the dreamers, which is an area that's near and dear to your heart you have a scholarship fund that has put a lot of these kids through college, and i think some are graduating now. what's the impact on the business community that you see if there's not something done about this program >> the impact on the business community of educating these young people would be wonderful. our little scholarship fund has
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3,400 students in college. there's a whole lot more who have scholarships from the individual -- people with daca working in that company. microsoft had 150. i met somebody at deloitte who said they had 40 and if daca isn't codified by congress, there's a pretty good chance that through court actions, it's going to go away, and those people all will be in some danger of losing their jobs at the moment, they're under psychological pressure that you just -- it is totally unfair it is cruel. it is wrong. and for these young people who have never committed a crime, or they wouldn't have daca -- if they commit a crime, they lose daca -- who have been in school
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here, many of them since they were babies -- we are being unintentionally very, very cruel to them, and i pray we fix this in time. >> don, i want to thank you for joining us it's always a pleasure to see you. and i really appreciate you coming and taking the time while we're here. >> a joy to see you, becky >> thank you, don. again, don graham. also, a quick note for you you can sign up for cnbc's new weekly "buffett watch" newsletter every friday you'll be all the week's news about warren buffett and berkshire hathaway, along with highlights from our buffett archive and updated list of the buffett top ten stock holdings you can get this in your inbox by going to buffettnewsletter.com. >> got to sign up for the newsletter. >> i know you'll get the same here, too. >> meantime, say hello to don for us, of course, as well. coming up when we return, uber's road show now headed to san francisco, but there's
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already a move afoot to make board changes, and the company hasn't even gone public. we're going to talk to one of the people behind that push for that change, next. as we head to a break, take a quick look at equity futures ahead of the big jobs number coming up, literally in an hour from now dow jones up about 58 points p 40aq up s&500 up eight points all could change when we hear the big number
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box," a potential speed bump for uber we're going to talk to an activist that's calling for a board shake-up ahead of the ipo. plus, becky's going to return with td ameritrade chairman joe moglia, as we are counting down to the april jobs report at 8:30 a.m. eastern time "squawk box"omg ghba cinrit ck at carvana, no matter what car you buy from us,
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has been excellent. they really appreciate the military family and it really shows. with all that usaa offers why go with anybody else? we know their rates are good, we know that they're always going to take care of us. it was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. it was funny because when we would call another insurance company, hey would say "oh we can't beat usaa" we're the webber family. we're the tenney's we're the hayles, and we're usaa members for life. ♪ get your usaa auto insurance quote today. welcome back to "squawk box. one investment group that's planning to become substantial uber shareholders is demanding that the company make changes to its board, this all happening
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before the company's ipo joining us is dieter weitz weitzenhager with ctw investment group, who wrote that letter with the demands to uber's chairman robert sugar. good morning. >> good morning, how are you >> good to see you, dieter explain to us what your problem is with the board of uber. >> yes, so, the company made some good first moves towards shareholder democracy -- one share, one vote, independent share. however, when we looked at registration statement that came out a couple days ago, we noticed that there are substantial conflicts with one board member we also think that chairman ron sugar is overboarded he sits on five boards, including uber that's really a lot to take on when you're just getting started with the newly public listed company. and thirdly, we really -- by the end of the summer, we really
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want to see a plan, how the board is moving, from private board to a board that represents more of its public shareholders. >> so, dieter, explain specifically, because you have a problem with john thain. john thain, of course, ran the stock exchange, former goldman sachs. what's your problem with mr. thain? >> right, right. so, we feel like he has a relationship with the chief financial officer of uber that goes back more than a decade so, you mentioned just john thain used to run the new york exchange it was one of his first big jobs he gave jay a big job there as well, also the cfo role. he moved over to merrill lynch a couple years later to fix the mortgage crisis there. again, he brought chae along then he was let go from merrill lynch or bank of america that took over the company, moved over to another financial company. along came chai as well. and now, soon after john thain
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got on the board of uber, he named chai as ceo of uber. so, chai seems to be thain's sidekick so, thain is the chair of the audit committee overseeing chai's work -- >> you're not questioning chai's work he's considered a remarkably talented guy from what i understand. >> no, we don't have any problems with chai it's basically the problem of someone who's been friends with him for more than ten years overseeing his work, that's the problem. >> so, is it an issue of him being on the board or him being on the audit committee >> i mean, definitely -- not necessarily on the board but on the audit committee, but you know, i think it's critical that the company sends all the right signals as it goes public that it really shows that it's moving on from its very toxic governance culture to one that really meets the highest standards that investors want to see. >> but you don't think john
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thain has led to some of the toxic culture issues that, for the most part, i think over the last year they've spent a lot of time and energy trying to change >> no, no, but look, john thain, he is overseeing the financial accounts of the company, making sure that investors have confidence in it. >> right. >> he is overseeing the guy who is really in charge of setting this all up. he has worked -- john thain is working with the external auditors so that's the problem. >> do you have a problem with travis kalanick being on the board? >> well, you know, that's up for debate, right? i think it's -- he brought in the guy -- i think that's important. we want to see a plan, how this company moves on, really representing more of the public shareholders that are coming on by the end of next week. >> okay. dieter, we appreciate your time and your perspective, but we will see where this debate goes and how it plays out, but i imagine, hopefully, hopefully we'll be talking to you again
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soon. >> thank you for having me. >> in the meantime, we want to get back out to omaha where becky's getting ready ahead of the berkshire annual meeting becky? ♪ it's friday, i'm in love andrew, when we come back, we have warren buffett on the fed, inflation, and whether chairman powell is the right person for the job also, we're joined by td ameritrade chairman joe moglia we're talking about the investment environment and what he's seeing from his clients and are the markets partying like it's 1999 that's next right here on "squawk box. ♪ [knocking] ♪
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this week, fed chairman jay powell said low inflation is transit entry, and that the low inflation we've seen won't last. i asked warren buffett about his thoughts. >> i agree with him. i don't know anything about what's going to happen or what the fed's going to do or anything else, but i think that -- i don't think our present conditions can exist in terms of fiscal and monetary policy and various other elements of the political landscape -- i don't think they can coexist with really low inflation rates over time, but i've been wrong on that for some time and i may be wrong for a long time in the future. i would say this -- there's nobody better to run the federal reserve or be the chairman of it than jay powell. i've had so much experience with him in the past, and he is -- he would be my choice
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>> with stocks hovering at all-time highs and the ipo landscape sizzling, we start to wonder, should investors be wary that we're in the midst of a dotcom bubble 2.0? joining us to talk about that and more is joe moglia he's the chairman of td ameritrade and the chair of athletics at coastal carolina university joe, always great to see you. >> great to see you. >> we're in your hometown right now, though. >> yes, you are. >> so we can actually drag you up here with us and spend some time this is a good time to talk about what your customers are thinking $1.3 trillion in assets under management, and what you see is what's reflective of what's coming. >> the idea is, are we really 1999 again, looking at a dotcom bubble these are two worlds in the '90s, we went up like this and then there was a significant recession for three years. after having gotten beat up as badly as our clients did last quarter, they're very wary of that that was just yesterday for them
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so, you can see them, like month to month, starting to get back into the markets they are net buyers today. and the sentiment that we've received from them is that when they look at the marketplace, they feel pretty good about the u.s. economy, they feel pretty good about where interest rates are, but they're a little bit nervous about the fact that we have a president who can tweet a problem almost any time he wants to, worried a little bit about a global slowdown from an economic perspective. so, the clients are cautious but optimistic. >> what does that mean in terms of cash that may be sitting on the sidelines? is there a pile of cash still out there? >> there is, but it's coming into the marketplace so, they've been net buyers now for the last couple months from a net buyer's perspective, a couple of the stocks they buy -- tesla, which wouldn't be a surprise, but aurora cannabis is also one of them, which i was surprised at, a little surprised at and then you look at some of the things they've sold, and they've actually recently been net sellers of apple and amazon. but over time, they are certainly net buyers of apple
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and amazon. >> what do they think of the ipos out there what's their tendency? >> the typical retail investor when they think about that, normally they want to get involved because there's an awful lot of attention being brought to it by the media but the reality is that -- and it's our job to protect our retail investors -- but when a retail -- when an ipo comes to market, if it's a really, really good ipo, the retail investors, the elite may, but the average retail investor doesn't really get much stock when they're able to get much stock, it's usually not that good an ipo, so it's something we've got to be a little bit careful of. >> just the number of ipos coming out and kind of the craze that's been around it. we had a guest earlier this week who said, uh-oh, that makes you start to worry that all of these companies are coming out because they're worried that the doors are going to shut, and if they don't get out to market now, it's going to be a few years before that comes again. do you worry about that? >> well, i don't worry about that i think pragmatically, if i were coming to market, we are at all-time highs -- >> right, but that's what they worry about.
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they're coming out now because they're worried that a downturn is coming. >> and i can appreciate that and we might well have a downturn, but we don't know that just the fact that we're at highs, it would make sense for me that the people want to raise money now. but i feel pretty good in terms of where the markets are now, in order to buy some of those ipos, the individual clients across the country will do that in the secondary market, they may have to do some selling to be able to do some of that. but i think they're reasonably thoughtful but more in the secondary market than the ipo market. >> where would you gauge they are versus five years ago versus a year ago >> a year ago, we still had -- we were still on a great run so, the retail investor tends to be a little bit of a lagging indicator in terms of what's going on so when things are getting better and better, they tend to get more and more involved but then based on last quarter, because they did get banged around pretty well, they're far more cautionary. that was only a few months ago relative to where they were very optimistic a year ago, they are
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optimistic but much more cautious today >> what can you tell me about millennial investors because i hear time and time again that they lived through the great recession. they don't trust the markets they don't want to invest in as much is that true or do you see millennials who are coming in at this point >> i think sometimes when we talk about that particular sector, we kind of lump everybody together and the reality is, within that sector, there are plenty of them that get involved with the markets. but right now, most of them do not. i would think that changes over time i think we see a very, very different change of behavior over the next decade with regard to that. >> just because they're getting older, they have responsibilities, they have kids -- >> yeah, exactly they're going to be more thoughtful they're getting older. they have more responsibility. i think that would all be part of it. >> what do you worry about, specifically is there anything that kind of comes onto your radar screen that you can think of? >> the only thing i really -- we recognize the markets can go up and down the thing that's always in the back of my mind, something i've talked to my team about, is terrorism.
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you could see something from a chemical perspective, a cyber perspective, a biological perspective. and i worry a little bit about that, are we really as prepared as we should be? and i know our country is, but in the back of my mind, something like that could happen at any time. and that's the only thing that i really, really worry about everything else are going to be ups and downs in the market and they're going to happen and we've seen them before. >> well, joe, we always love seeing you we appreciate you taking the time, what i know is a busy week for you, as is a busy weekend for everybody here we hope to have you in studio soon. >> i look forward to that. thanks, becky. >> joe moglia. and joe, back to you at the nasdaq. >> thanks, becky. coming up, the countdown is on we're closing in on the jobs report we have our panel ready to go as the market waits for the numbers. "squawk box" will return in just a moment
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it's jobs day in america 30 minutes and counting to the number wall street is waiting for. it's been a wild week for the fed. first, fed chair powell held rates steady and signaled that a rate cut was not in the cards. then, the president's pick for the fed board, stephen moore, drops out. we're live with economist john taylor at the end of a wild week for the central bank. and it's your ticket to omaha. berkshire hathaway's annual meeting ready for kickoff. this hour we'll show you more of our interview with warren buffett and talk to red yid co-founder alexis ohanian and
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berkshire board member sue decker the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ i tell you what what's wrong before i get off the floor ♪ >> announcer: live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box. ♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin. becky quick, as you know by now, is in omaha, nebraska, ahead of the berkshire hathaway annual meeting this weekend she will be joined by andrew ross sorkin. when's your flight >> this afternoon, about 2:00 p.m. >> and lands >> about 4:00 or 5:00. >> and then dinner tonight >> dinner tonight. >> yeah? >> then we've got warren and charlie tomorrow, all day. >> yes, you do. >> questions from the shareholders, sending us questions by email >> all right >> got some good ones. >> becky's out there on a scouting expedition. you got everything all set for andrew's arrival now, becky?
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i mean, you feel like it's -- >> almost. almost >> have you looked into his, like, accommodations are they -- >> his lodgings? no >> you haven't -- are you going to do that after the show? >> i'm sure it's the same as everybody here um, sure andrew, where would you like your room, facing out towards -- >> it's being swept like they do for the vice president or something. anyway, the futures right now are indicated up 63. those are some of the best levels we've seen for the session. gets back some of yesterday, which was a triple-digit loss on the dow, and the day before. nasdaq has been weak on a relative basis, but it's up today. amazon is helping, and that factors into what we're going to talk to becky about. treasury yields 2.558% this morning. >> we want to get back to becky in omaha, because she spoke with warren buffett last night about berkshire hathaway's role in an oil merger mega deal >> it was a big week for berkshire. we learned earlier this week that the company made the rare
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move of stepping into the middle of a competitive takeover battle, helping occidental finance its deal to buy anadarko in competition with chevron. i asked buffett how that deal came together. >> well, it happened right here. on last friday, less than a week ago, last friday, i got a call in the middle of the afternoon from brian moynihan, ceo of bank of america, and he said that they were involved in financing the occidental deal and that the occidental people would like to talk to me and i said, fine, i'll talk to them any time. and i think even later on said this, that the ceo was traveling and that she'd call me the following morning. so, she called me about 9:00 on saturday and i said i'd meet with her any time on saturday or sunday
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so, we scheduled a meeting for 10:00 on sunday morning, and she and oscar brown came they arrived at 10:00. and by 11:00, we had a deal. and they had us committed unequivocally, come hell or high water, for $10 billion, if the deal is made with anadarko so, they had to get their own board approval, but they walked away with -- 9/11 happened or anything like that, they had $10 billion to the deal. >> did you do this because you're betting on the oil industry or the permian basin or on oil prices, or is this just the terms of the deal itself >> well, oil prices are the big determinant over time, obviously. if you're in oil, same thing's true if you're in copper, copper prices so, oil prices are enormously important, but i was familiar with occidental, and i'm generally familiar with the
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permian basin, although i've never been there if i were there, i wouldn't know what to do but, no, it was a sensible deal for us, a sensible deal for them and that's -- i proposed it and they decided whether it made sense. and then when we finished at 11:00, they went back to the plane, i called ron olson -- he's on the west coast, so it was 9:00 his time -- and i said, we need to get this done by tomorrow evening and i said, we'll be their lawyers and i assume they'll get similar instructions so, just, whatever it takes, get it done. and in ten minutes, ron had a couple people working on it. >> it was a sensible deal for occidental because they needed the money. they needed the funding to prove that their deal was worth what they said it was it was a sensible deal for berkshire hathaway, because, of course, they're getting 8% paid annually in dividends on that preferred stock, not to mention
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the 80,000 warrants they also picked up along the way -- or 80 million warrants so, both sides making out on this deal. joe, back to you. >> becky, thank you. we are awaiting -- in addition to what we've been talking about out in omaha -- the jobs number for april. it's going to be released at 8:30 eastern time, as always on the first friday of the month. economists are expecting 190,000 new nonfarm positions were added last month, although it's a bit of a horse race when it comes to guesses from the big banks morgan stanley coming in on the high side with a prediction of 233,000. while deutsche bank is taking the under at 160,000 let's get right to our jobs panel about what we can expect joining us now, harvard kennedy school professor and former cea chairman jason furman is with us in studio. and club for growth president and former congressman dave mcintosh is here cnbc's mike santoli is here, our senior markets commentator jason, we were talking before we started about the economy. and i think you think overall it's in pretty good shape.
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the two numbers that we recently had, that you had commented on, was that surprise gdp number above 3%, and you had some concerns about how that was generated or some of the underlying -- >> mm-hmm. >> -- if you looked underneath the numbers. and then the big job number from last week. and i got you to at least admit that the economy's in pretty good shape, but in your view, some of the juice that we're adding to it is more appropriate for when we're in a slow period, like midrecession period in terms of where fed funds are and in terms of the stimulus to me, it sounds like you're attributing it once again to kind of a sugar high that we're still benefiting from in the economy. whereas dave, the congressman mcintosh, thinks it's purely deregulation and tax reform to take the yoke off of business after the obama administration so, you guys have got to argue with each other, because i have no feeling one way or another.
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>> you were doing a good enough job on my position i don't feel like i need to make -- >> did i do it pretty good >> you did it well, joe. thank you. >> i read your stuff and i follow you on twitter, and that's a rare thing. >> you look at the stance of policy we did a 1.2% of gdp fiscal stimulus last year, this year it's 1.6% gdp fiscal stimulus, fed funds rate in the mid-2s this is normal for an economy in a midsized recession this is like a counterrecession policy package it's a policy package that works. i think the monetary policy right now is completely appropriate, so i'm not complaining about it the question is, you know, where do we go once the fiscal stimulus wears off >> right mike, i said to jason, if there really is -- inflation is pretty under control, why not keep -- if you can do 3% this way, keeping -- if there's not a day of reckoning, why not do it? >> right, which i think -- but that means fed patience, right it doesn't mean cutting from
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here necessarily in anticipation of something -- >> let's get congressman and club for growth. we want growth your view is that this is not necessarily transient. i don't mean inflation, but the 3%, and that it's just what to expect when you cut taxes and deregulation, or regulation. >> that's right. we view it as a reset in the trump era from the normal that jason was used to in the obama era of a sluggish economy. the tax cuts, the deregulation have reset the base line, and that means we can expect 3%, 3.5% gdp growth, and the federal reserve can keep the interest rates at a very steady level that is good for the markets and good for the economy we're very pleased with the private-sector productivity rate and the employment rate. that's what's driving, we think will be driving this jobs report. >> congressman, i held this up earlier, and i mentioned this to jason already. and mike, i don't know, did you get to read this
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so, one of the two legs for 3% that people said we just can't grow above these numbers because we don't have the population growth and we don't have the productivity >> by people, you mean me? >> people that say that we're -- a lot of economists would say that 2.2% is max for what we can do >> which is the most optimistic of anyone on the fomc. >> right, okay i understand that. but does this -- if this were to stay like this, in terms of productivity gains that we weren't expecting, would that cause you to be more optimistic about what our average growth rate could be, or this still doesn't do it for you? >> oh, of course if it could stay like that, we're going to have superb growth -- >> but it can't. >> i'm not saying it can't i'm just saying we have this problem. the single most important variable to know is the rate of productivity growth. nothing is more important than that and the single hardest to measure, most volatile, most noisy of the major data we look at is productivity, because you have gdp in the denominator,
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jobs in the numerator -- the denominator. both are noisy it adds a lot of noise to the whole thing. this looks good over the last four quarters it looks good. i would just as a rule of thumb take about a quarter of the good news and carry it forward, and the rest of the good news and assume it's noise and is going to go away. >> dave, do you attribute those productivity gains -- about 50% higher than it was the previous ten years -- do you attribute that to trumponomics >> i absolutely do you look at when that kicked in, it was right as the tax bill passed and then the four, now five quarters after that. and even before that, you saw the lifting of the heavy hand of regulation both of those contribute to that productivity number, particularly the lighter regulation allows companies to deploy their workers in a much more efficient and an effective way so they can produce more we're very pleased with the reset of the economy the next step we'd like to see them do is secure liberal free
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trade, and then we think you'd get another boost in that efficiency that leads to productivity if we can see that and get congress to stop fighting with each other and actually pass the new trade agreement with canada and mexico so we've got security in that, i think you'd see this productivity gain continue for another four or five quarters. >> jason, today's number, do you expect to -- do you like reversion or regression to the mean which is your -- is it interchangeable? >> reversion. >> reversion is there going to be a reversion to the mean? >> i think there's a bit of optimism, animal spirits continuing to bounce back from that weak february number. so, i'm above trend for this month. >> are you at -- >> but i don't -- >> are you at -- so you haven't tweeted about -- >> i haven't tweeted i thought i was saving my number until later. no >> do not! we're going to play the game. >> are we back to that i write down pi, 3.14 -- >> i remember when you used to do that. >> dave, don't tell us then.
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but can i get an over-under on gdp this year for you, full year >> 2.2%. >> 2.2%. so, we could do a dinner based on 2.2%, and we could include austan, and then we could all go. >> that would be great. >> because he's still -- you know, he doesn't want me to pay off because -- >> he could win -- >> he keeps complaining that i haven't paid. >> you could get two meals -- >> where burger king and impossible burger >> that's where you eat, you told me. >> or taco bell. >> i told austan anywhere. he said no taco bell. >> how about per se? >> anywhere. >> per se's going to cost you 300 bucks a head. >> i'm not afraid. i've done so well in the trump economy, i've got the money. we'll have more from our jobs -- we'll have more from our jobs panel coming up and a programming note our eamon javers will sit with -- mike, you got anything else thanks for being here. >> i'll be around for it. >> we'll sit down with the vice president. he's going to sit down with mike pence at 9:30 eastern time, after the jobs report.
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coming up when we return, more from berkshire hathaway's big gathering in omaha want to get back to becky and find out what's coming up. becky. >> hey, guys up next, we have alexis ohanian. he's a regular for us. we get to talk to him all the time of course, he's founder of reddit we're going to talk to him about what a new technology guy is hanging out with all of these old-value investors. lots going on. much more to come when we return on be "squawk box. internet that puts you in charge.
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welcome back to "squawk box. we are now just minutes, about 15 minutes away from government's latest jobs report. that number due out at the bottom of the hour the futures right now, dow looks like it would open up 72 points higher, nasdaq up about 49 points, s&p 500 up about 9 points of course, all that will likely change once we get that number we'll have complete coverage and lots of analysis following the april jobs report, but first, want to step away for a moment, get back to becky quick in
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omaha. she is there ahead of berkshire hathaway's annual meeting. she joins us now with a very special guest. becky. >> andrew, thank you very much our next guest, of course, is a tech luminary, and on the tech front, we've got big developments from facebook in the news today the social network is banning several personalities whose views it deemed too inflammatory to be shared, including talk show host alex judge and nation of islam leader lieu farrakhan joining us to talk about this and much more is alexis ohanian. he's initialized capital's co-founder and reddit's co-founder as well, also an advisory board member of the cnbc technology executive council. before that stuff, though, alexis, you in omaha for this value investing thing. people think of this as kind of being a stodgier, sort of people who have been coming for decades and decades and people who have been longtime shareholders what are you doing here? because i see you at royal weddings and i know you're, like, on the scene why do you want to come here >> where else would i want to
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be omaha is the place to be this is special. this is a pilgrimage that i as a businessman, as a venture capitalist, still feel this need to come to, in part because, you know, my partner, gary and i, we came for the first time just last year. and we said, all right, this is something we need to participate in, because in a lot of ways, we are thinking for building for the longest term, because we meet founders from the very beginning. we're not value investors by any means, but we are thinking along similar lines. we heard warren and charlie talking about here in omaha are the exact same values we look for in founders. the same way they look for managers that they really believe in, we look for in entrepreneurs. and we want -- we would love for our firm to one day have the kind of reach and impact and legacy that berkshire hathaway has had. >> were you surprised by the meeting last year? was it what you anticipated or -- >> it was actually not what i anticipated. i'm very lucky
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my chief of staff is from omaha, and she had talked about this as an event that i really needed to not miss it was something that growing up i remember hearing about in business school, it was something that you kind of hear of as a kind of mythical thing, and then you show up here and you find -- i mean, you find long-lost business contacts. the c suites is milling about, even before it gets started, and it's just a great place to be because everyone's just, frankly, we're all just business nerds here talking about where the world is headed. and so, it's some great conversation for the weekend. >> all right let's talk about what is happening in social media. we mentioned at the top of this that facebook made some changes recently, just this week it decided to go ahead and ban some of the views that it thought were more extremist on its platform as an expert in social media, as somebody who is constantly watching what's happening there, what's your take on the evolution? >> i think this is a natural course of things i think a lot of folks will wonder why it took so long
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i think -- i was on here probably six, eight months ago talking about peak social and how communities like reddit, but other platforms, are starting to thrive because we're all pretty tired of this follower model, where we follow individuals. and so, it's also not surprising to me that facebook just rolled out a redesign that looks awfully familiar, where they're pushing forward this idea of following a facebook group and being part of a facebook community, instead of following individuals -- >> like reddit >> like reddit, like girl boss a lot of community-based platforms that we're excited about are thriving now, and i think this is a signal from facebook that they see this shift. they're acknowledging to a certain extent this notion of peak social and are realizing that people are retreating back to communities as opposed to just following individuals. >> because of the bad things that can happen. >> yes, and because when, at the end of the day, what is more sustaining for us as people is the notion of community. in a lot of ways, traditional
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social media's pretty antisocial we don't all wander around the world with a cadre of followers behind us listening to every word we do, however, operate this world through communities, whether there are small text messaging groups with college friends or larger communities of fellow girl bosses with whom we share financial advice that's how humans operate. and i think we're seeing this shift now with facebook. >> let's talk about the ipo market >> sure. >> it's pretty hot right now. >> yes, it is. >> for most of the ipos that have come out, not all of them what do you think as somebody who looks at this and thinks, okay, capital markets, great time, bad time are we late in the cycle what does all this say to you and to people who are investors? >> yeah. you know, we've been pleased by this broadly in the valley you can see a lot more ceos feeling more excited about the notion of going public this year, given the success that these early ipos have had. firms that we very much admire,
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like horowitz have done phenomenally well in this market and they're also long-term investors. so, on the one hand, we know many of the companies in the initialized portfolio are still many, many years away from an ipo. we have some others, you know, like instacart, that could conceivably be doing this soon i think the powerful opportunity, though, is how do we get into an environment where potentially more retail investors, more of the value can be captured in the public markets at a time when there's just so much money privately, especially at the later stage? and i think that's where you're seeing in some of these companies that are going public, you're seeing opportunities that maybe a decade earlier would have been enjoyed by the public markets that aren't as available because privates are gobbling it up. >> there's also a sense amongst some people -- and i don't know if this is a theme that you've picked up on in silicon valley or not -- but look, we could be nearing the end of a great
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business cycle and the end of a great market cycle, and if you don't get out there and get public, the markets could dry up and you could be left waiting for years to get back in. >> there is that sense it's so hard to time markets, of course and we do, because we invest so early, we do have a pretty long-term horizon for us but when we think about this, i think the big alignment i would like to see made, and i think the biggest thing holding back a lot of founders, whether it's a good time or a bad time to go public marketwise, is finding an opportunity where they can get long-term focus, even in a world of quarterly earnings reports. and i've seen more and more discussion, which has been interesting to me, about finding ways to give different voting rights to shareholders based on how long they've held the stock. >> what? >> and we're starting to see this as a conversation more and more. >> like you get two votes if you've been in five years or longer >> this idea -- there's actually a firm that we back that's still in its infancy, long-term stock
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exchange, which wants to build an entire market based on this, still in its infancy, but i do think that one of the big issues -- and we talked about elon the last time i was on here -- one reason this generation of ceos doesn't want to deal with is the idea of activist investors or basically people who are not as aligned as they and their companies are -- >> short-timers. >> -- about building for the long term. and i can see the argument there. i think as a former ceo, as a former operator of a start-up, you would much rather the people who are holders of equity in your company be as long-term-oriented as all the people within the building who are themselves also holders. and i think the better we can get alignment on that, the better off we'll all be. no immediate solutions in sight, though and for the time being, yeah, i think more ceos are going to take advantage of the hot markets while they can. >> that's really interesting perspective. alexis, we'd love to have you back soon to talk more about all
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this. >> my pleasure, becky. >> great to see you here. >> likewise. >> alexis ohanian. and joe, back to you. >> becks, quickly, i have an amazon question for you, and i don't know if alexis wants to get in on this, which is we saw that the amazon stock was being purchased by ted -- either -- well, we don't know, either ted or tod but do we think that is a precursor to warren? i know you asked him about this -- for him to buy, given that's what happened with apple many years ago in 2016 ted or tod bought some of apple. it wasn't a warren purchase, but then later, of course, he went all in >> mm. >> does anyone have a take >> you know, i don't know. i don't know do you have any thoughts on that, alexis >> i'm not enough of a berkshire hathaway expert to say anything other than i think the rise of amazon continues to be unimpeded. and really, the -- it's a company whose name has come up recently in terms of regulation to try to perhaps stop that. but short of that, this is a
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company that just continues to grow and continues to dominate markets. >> right, so throw in the towel at some point? >> i can see where that's coming from. >> right all right, guys, we'll send it back over to you. >> i was looking up real quickly. there's one company left in the robocop movies there's only one company, and everybody -- i mean, aws what is it it was books, wasn't it? now it's movies. it's aws it's delivery. is there anything that -- i mean, maybe eventually health care they thought about that, too, right? it's going to be maybe one company, one company in the dow, amazon maybe it's not too late. coming up, the countdown's on to the april jobs number, just minutes away. then later on, "squawk on the street," don't miss the big interview with vice president mike pence he's going to talk jobs, markets, and more with cnbc's eamon javers
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welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we are now just minutes away from the april jobs report want to get some predictions from our jobs panel. jason furman, david mcintosh, mike santoli, steve liesman and rick santelli. let's play the game. i think we've got to do it quick and we've got to do "price is right" rules so -- >> without going over. >> can't go over >> you want to go first? >> oh, "price is right" rules ruin my strategy, but i'll stick with 230. >> okay, mr. santoli >> no guess, but i think the whisper's higher than the consensus. i think leaning for a stronger number. >> david >> 225,000 225,000 -- >> that's rick >> 225 okay >> and club for growth, we're bullish. we're in the 220,000, 230,000
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range. >> you've got to pick a number, my friend. >> 230. >> 230, okay mr. liesman? >> 195,000 195,000. 185,000 private sector and making up the government is everybody else. >> is this just a low-balling situation, so you win if everyone else is over? is that what the strategy is >> no, i've got 185,000 on my private-sector model i can pick it up and show you. you can look at the information there, if you want. >> the model. >> it's the model. >> one day you should make that model public we should just post it online somewhere. >> it could be public, but it's sort of an embarrassing set of excel equations that some guy will look at and say, you know, come on, steve. >> excel, that's pretty sophisticated. >> mr. santoli >> he doesn't want to -- >> don't want to play? >> no, i'm not going to pretend i have a process. >> wage gains 3%, you think? >> 3.2%. 0.3% this month. >> participation rate continues to -- >> flat. >> oh, that will be flat okay all right, i'm going to get --
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i'm afraid i might be late, so i'm going to read slowly, but i'm going to get to elon with plenty of time let's get down to ylan mui in washington and we've got about ten seconds, ylan you already know what it is, so i'm going to look at your face and see if i can tell whether it's good or bad anyway, what is the number, ylan >> 263,000 nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000 jobs in april, beating expectations the unemployment rate also dropped by two percentage points to 3.6%, and that is the lowest rate since december 1969 average hourly earnings were up by 6 cents to $27.77, a 0.2% increase month over month and 3.2% increase for the year the labor force participation rate, that declined by 0.2 percentage points to 62.8% in april but was unchanged from a year earlier now, we got a mixed bag for
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revisions. february's bad number was revised upward from 33,000 to 56,000 jobs. march's number was brought down from 196,000 to 189,000 jobs in total, that's 16,000 jobs more than previously reported. the three-month moving average is now 169,000 jobs. now, there was big job growth in april in the professional and business services sector that gave 76,000 jobs. construction was up by 33,000, and health care was up by 27,000 jobs however, there were some sectors that did shed jobs, including retail, which lost 12,000. mining was down by 3,000 and motor vehicle and parts, that was down by 1,500 guys, i want to end with one more record stat for you hispanic unemployment, that was 4.2% in april. again, the lowest on record. back over to you. >> lowest on record. thanks, ylan great job. let's get more reaction from our panel. first, liesman, i want to ask
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you about -- an adp of 275 would indicate -- >> you know. >> what should this number have been, above or below that? and was that a good number did that predict 263 or should it have been actually above 275? >> joe, i think that's interesting. that was the first thing that ran through my mind was that sort of strange interview we had with zandi on wednesday -- >> me, too. >> -- where the number came out ridiculously strong and he backed off and said, no, that's not the right number well, guess what -- and by the way, i'd like to say, to my somewhat credit, was that when adp ends up being above consensus, it seems to have pretty good predictive power of an above-consensus number, for whatever that's worth. it doesn't get it exactly right, but it does sort of lean you in the right direction of the way the number comes out i can tell you -- >> it was pretty good, that -- >> it was pretty good, yeah. so, my model, by the way, treats the adp number with a bit of a depression on it so, if i plug 275 into my model, it gives me back 259 for the private sector.
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>> god, it's exactly what it was -- wow. >> that's what it would indicate. >> well, i didn't understand that interview like you, but it's so bizarre. >> yeah. we were both -- hopefully, people were watching and they understand what we're talking about, but it was strange. >> right. >> my question is, if you're on the board of the fed this morning and you're looking at this number, you're thinking what >> steady as a goat. >> you're thinking wages were 0.2%, 3% over the last 12 months inflation remains low, even if you think a bunch of that is transitory i don't think you're seeing a lot in this report to worry about. plus, even on the household side, the employment population ratio didn't improve the unemployment rate down, participation down, overall employment rate flat so, it was a good report i don't think there's any reason a bond market should be scared about a report like this. >> the good news is, andrew, we're not going to have to wait long, because there are so many fed speakers today that are going to be basically running these numbers through their kind of rhetorical filter and the bond market thinks, though, that on a net basis,
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this makes the fed slightly less likely to ease, more likely to look for an opportunity later on to hike. but it's interesting, because the linkages between this number and what the fed's going to do have loosened up, right? where maybe we're going to tolerate higher wage growth and such. >> let's get to everybody else rick, david? who wants to go, rick? >> sure. i think it's a great number. i would have liked to have seen the workweek a little higher i definitely wasn't impressed with the participation rate, losing a couple of tenths. but all in all, not a bad number and you know, interest rates are ticking up we are now looking at the dollar index once again overtaking a level we haven't spent a lot of time at since may of 2017. you know, i don't know what goldilocks is, and i know everything gets benchmarked against the fed. but you know, all those static comparisons, if we freeze right now, here's what's going to happen three meetings down the road -- that's a useless mug's game we don't know, because those couple of months in the middle,
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that's the whole game. and i think everything's acting quite well as a matter of fact, i think, you know, if we get a trade deal, that most likely could be a deflationary event that most likely is going to excite stocks even more, thinking, oh, fed's going to see this and really think inflation's going down so, i think there's a lot of bright spots and one thing i do want to address -- this is kind of strange -- but we did have some march inventory numbers nobody's paying attention to. i noticed retail inventories were down 0.3%, postsale inventories unchanged, downward revisions. why am i mentioning that because 3.2% gdp, first quarter, first look, will get affected a little bit by these numbers. and trust me, if that revision continues to hold with a 3 handle, i continue to say that our starting point was so much better at the beginning of the year, i think it enhances the possibilities of where we can end up >> so, david, i guess -- >> yeah? >> i mean, do you -- >> i see this as very good news.
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i think both of the federal reserve mandates -- unemployment, keeping that low, and low inflation -- are on or even better than target. i think it actually does give them room to continue to normalize, but they'll have to be careful on the timing and do it steady as they go >> so, where are these jobs coming from, if no one's around to fill -- i'm still wondering, the late-great alan krueger or -- i mean, thinking about zandi. we talked about him. for a couple of years, he's saying 200 is not sustainable because it's just, the workers aren't there to satisfy the demand where are they coming from, liesman? >> joe -- >> you're seeing them. >> i would ask alan krueger this question almost every month as these numbers came in, and i'm pretty sure what alan would say was, if you have a large increase in employment and a large increase in unemployment -- a large decrease in unemployment -- that's along with his theory. so, what you're doing is you're
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taking people who are unemployed -- in other words, part of the workforce. because remember, to be unemployed, you have to say you're available to work and he would say look, that's exactly what you're expecting to happen, you're driving down the unemployment rate. i want to make one quick note, which is not to focus on the negative, but something's going on in retail i think we know what's going on in retail, but here's the series of numbers -- minus 14, minus 15, and minus 12,000 for the last three months of retail. now, it's very interesting this could be an internet story. by the way, the jobs being classified someplace else -- or maybe there's this massive adjustment that's going on in the retail business that it's worth watching as to what's going on in that space because it's been pretty consistently negative right there >> and joe, as you see consumers move to the amazon platform, retailers are going to have to adjust their cost. it makes perfect sense with what we see elsewhere in the market >> jason, what could we do as an average per month?
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i mean, can we do 200 as an average for this whole year? is that still possible because i just -- everybody said we're going to go down to 100 in a tight labor market. >> yeah, look, last year we were at 223 this year we're averaging i think about 205,000 jobs a month so far you know, i would take the under on 200,000 for the year. but we're at a pace way higher than what i thought. and you know, the participation rate over the last year is flat. that's amazing in an economy where a lot of people are getting older, a lot of people are retiring it's those people continuing to come in. you know, how much longer we have of it, i don't know is it six months is it two years? is it over this month. i think it could be any of those. >> but jason, jason, is it time to change the framework? that's really the question i think, you know, i give joe a lot of credit for kind of questioning the framework by which each economist comes on and says, you know what -- and the fed says this all the time -- 80,000, 100,000 workers
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per month is what we should be doing. and after six months, you know, we're going to go back to it, after a year, we're going to go back to it it seems to me maybe the framework of thinking about the population of labor out there is perhaps wrong here. >> right i mean, the question is how much weight do you want to put on what we've learned over the last 40 years versus what we've observed over the last four years. i don't think you want to overweight the recent past too much, but you probably don't want to ignore it either so, yeah, i'm starting to think steady state job growth is above that 77,000 a month -- >> there you go. >> -- that would be the demographically constant unemployment rate, but it's not 200,000 a month. that's just not steady state. >> this productivity piece in the "journal" -- >> you love that piece, joe. you love that. >> i do. because that's the missing link for how we could maybe -- >> it's a huge deal, joe here at this monetary policy conference last night -- >> he wants capital investment to back it up, or business investment to back it up
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he says we're not seeing that. >> there is business investment. and look, among the things the government does badly, counting capital spending probably is up in the top three or four i will say that at the hoover institution dinner last night before this conference, a lot of buzz about that productivity a lot of caution because it's a volatile number quarter to quarter, but you've had a couple good quarters of it. if you put up a chart, you can do a rising trend line over the past year. if that turns, it changes everything it's very hard to know if it really is turning, but it's -- >> it's already turning. >> -- a big deal you've had the -- well, it may be look, i think just, the economists are going to be a little more cautious than the political side of things, who want to say it's already there. >> of course that's why -- >> what, rick? rick's -- >> that's why they miss all the trades by timing, economists are convinced, it's adios! you know, the signal is way in the rearview mirror. that's the whole point economists are brilliant they're always brilliant they didn't anticipate -- >> and every trader makes
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money -- >> didn't say -- listen, stick with the topic -- i'm trying to make viewers some money. if you wait until economists and most fed officials are convinced, that's when you ought to be cashing out at the window. >> every trader's always right >> yeah, i didn't say that, but if you want to go down that road, that's fine. >> all right, okay thank you to our jobs panel. jason, david, mike, and rick did i get everyone and liesman. >> and liesman is there. and what we want to do, though, is get back to mr. liesman to break down some of these numbers. he's got a very special guest. he's at stanford right now and he's going to be speaking with some very special guests throughout the day as well steve. >> thank you, andrew yeah, we've got a bunch of guests, but none better than john taylor, eminent professor of finance monetary policy at stanford university. john, i almost want to skip the jobs number and get to the broader discussion about
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productivity, because at the end of the day, monthly jobs don't matter for wit if you have strong productivity, because that changes things. when you look at these numbers, how do you judge what yesterday was 3.6% for the first quarter and you had a 1.8% for the fourth quarter, higher than trend? >> i think productivity is key right now. it's what we've been hoping. that's why we were hoping growth would be higher. it's not a sugar high, it's the good productivity numbers coming in it's significant and i'm glad people are talking about that. we're talking about it out here all the time. >> if these numbers are higher, the productivity numbers are higher, and we're not really necessarily going to change the demographic because we're not going to let what happened 30 years ago determine the populations now. what happened to potential growth is it potentially higher >> absolutely. we've been arguing you'll go from a lousy 2% to above 3%, and that's what's been happening the last few years it's been going up and up and up and now 3.2% for the most recent numbers, that consistent with the productivity numbers the demographics are important,
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but remember, bls was forecasting declines it's flat. that's a positive thing. >> a victory to have a flat participation rate. >> i think so, yeah. >> because you do have the retirements. >> absolutely. >> so, the idea that it's -- john, a 3.6% unemployment rate you're doing 200,000-plus jobs a month. is the fed in the right place? >> i think they made some good changes since they've started to normalize. i think that's a good thing. i think that's actually one of the positives. people forget that to get a normalized fed is good for the economy, good for the world -- >> rates up at this point, you're saying? >> i think that's good they're in a better place at this point, in case something happens. i think they'll continue to adjust, but we'll see what happens to the rest of the data. >> it's hard not to get too wonky about this, but we had an interesting conversation last night about the relationship of productivity to interest rates if productivity is higher, economics would suggest interest rates should be higher can you explain that to the audience >> well, i think in terms of the fed, it's the other way around they want to see the potential, the economy grow we all do, of course
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>> right. >> and once that happens, the need for rate increases is diminished because you've got productivity you've got the potential of the economy growing rapidly -- >> so they don't have to raise rates in light of higher productivity or lower unemployment >> well, there are other things, but certainly the productivity number the real question you're raising is what's this normal interest rate >> right. >> and a lot of people, we're going to be talking about this at this conference a lot, and has it come down, is it going back up again? i think it's probably too early to say that. i've been a little skeptical that it's come down as far as people think, so maybe we'll get some better estimates. >> fed chairman jay powell says the fed is in a good place with this current policy rate do you think it's in a good place? >> i think as long as it keeps adjusting, i think, again, what's going to be on the table here today is these policies, strategies, rules. and as long as they are doing that, i think a big change in the last couple years, really, has been as more rules-based policy, more strategies being considered. >> where's the inflation, john everybody thought we were going to have rising inflation instead, we have inflation, the
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core pce is down three, four months in a row. >> i think to some extent, it's because the supply side of the economy is picking up. remember, these are -- productivity and labor forces -- >> deregulation and tax cuts or supply side -- >> both of those -- deregulation and the tax reform are both -- i think bring the financial side in, bring the fed in as well to that. >> okay. john, we have to leave it there because we have some other imminent guests and warren buffett, et cetera, from that conference there john taylor, thanks for joining us this morning. andrew, back to you. >> thank you, steve. great to see you, john appreciate it. when we return, we'll head back to omaha for a special interview with berkshire hathaway board member and former yahoo president sue decker then at 9:30 eastern time, vice president mike pence is going to be on "squawk on the street" to talk about today's jobs number, the markets, and more. you do not want to miss it stay tuned "squawk box" returns in a moment your stuff is in ok hands. just ok? they don't give two and a half stars to just anybody. here you go. what's this? it's your piano. hold this for a sec.
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welcome back to "squawk box. the government's latest employment report showing an addition of 250,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls last month. the unemployment rate 3.6%, the lowest since 1969. that's a while ago that's like the manson family. that is so long ago. i mean, i remember it. that's the moon landing, sorkin, that supposedly happened the futures right now -- >> supposedly. >> there are people that say that that was tongue in cheek you know that, right i mean, whoopi said the flag was moving, so there was some kind of wind in the studio.
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anyway, dow jones up 104 points, nasdaq indicated up 53 points, and the s&p indicated up 12. take a quick look at the dollar, which is the index as you can see, it fell on that number and then take a quick look at the ten-year i don't think there's been a whole lot of movement. it's now 2.55%, right about where with it t was. this meeting's berkshire hathaway's annual meeting, sometimes known as woodstock for capitalists. or important issues for the board to discuss we take you back to omaha, where becky is standing by with one of those board members themselves becky. >> andrew, thank you very much i am joined right now by one of berkshire hathaway's directors, sue decker sue is the former president of yahoo! she's a board member of costco and survey monkey, and she's also co-founder of a news aggravating platform called rafter thanks for being here. >> it's great to be here. >> always great to talk to you about these things i thought we could start with social media, because we were
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just speaking with alexis ohanian, who talked a lot about peak social, where he sees people kind of stepping away from the broad social media and wanting to get back to communities. we talked a little bit about what facebook is doing to weed off some of the more extreme voices on platform he thinks that's a signal of that, too. you are in the middle with this with raptor. what do you see happening in social right now >> raptor is a trusted college network communications platform and we verify the edu so everybody has the address on it to identify it and produce content that may lead to toxicity i think broadly when think of the world of media, these are issues that traditional media
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company has, managing church and state, meaning how much advertisement is influenced by the editorial or freedom of speech olicies the difference is those are closed network there is a fixed supply where as on the internet users create the supply and much more open so there is an incentive to drive usage. that can lead to some of the problems we have >> how do we cut it off? >> eventually, one, if the company do not tradition itself, the company has the issues all the time of freedom of speech and controlling church verses state. online is an open network and it is harder. you have much more incentive to drive the financials that way. so facebook i think by making this move initially they were removing content that was
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objectable to their terms of service. now, they're removing the user account which they are taking a step further which i think is as good move. >> you said on the board of costco and hathaway. strong jobs recording on the comes of the hills of a lot of strong what do you see when it comes to the economy and business and consumers? >> i think overall the economy is doing very well it is slower than last year but not the fears that would significantly deteriorate have proven unfounded my guess is we are near the peak and cycle and next year is slower than this year, there is nothing showing access right now that would suggest would be materials. >> what make you think we are potentially near the end of these cycle that it has been going so long or you see other things concern you >> there is a lot of wind in the back with interest rates low
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potentially staying low or slightly rising so there is a little bit of a drag potentially from that. the consumer and a little bit of fatigue out there. you can see it in the numbers. there is just a modest slow down there is a slow down >> what sort of numbers in terms of what consumers are doing or business investment? >> more of what we see overall and when we look at the number on the board of what i am on, not talking about any one company but it just shifted a little bit than it has been. >> what do company do in response to things loo i cike tt >> what's the typical way to nimble through those things. >> the company should focus on driving the competitive advantage of their businesses and not trying to manage the economy or anyone part of consumer one of the things like costco business has been terrific and they continue to gain market share. regardless of whether the overall pool of water is a
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little lower there their consumers are doing great because of amazing deals they offer consumers. >> costco is phenomenonal. it gets forgotten and left behind and it is doing it quietly. >> yeah, it is interesting because i think amazon of course is an amazing company. costco is complementary and different how they do it amazon competes on broad selections, they have hundreds of thousands or millions of skus and costco goes long costco will always belower price. people go into costco and find things they did not expect to find and amazon is random access and you have to know what you are looking for. costco is fresh food >> costco, the last two standing
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will be costco and amazon. >> sue, as somebody running a company like raptor where you are going out, you have to look at the markets closely, what's been happening the ipos that we have seen recently, there has been so many of them and what's the rush to get there? >> the size of the offering and the market values of the company when they are coming you see companies going to the public market earlier in their development. i think what's driving the timing is after five or ten years of capitol, their original investors are looking for liq d liquidity. it is not always they need more money. lyft and uber are big consumer of capitol many company have gone public.
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>> sue, i want to thank you por jo joining me it is great to see you >> great to see you becky. >> sue decker, also, a quick note for you, folks. you can sign up for our buffett watch newsletter you will get all the news about warren buffett and bershire hathaway that comes with highlights of our archives you can get it all by going to buffetnewsletter.com guys, i will send it back to you. >> did you rent a car? >> i rented a minivan. i could pick him up. >> oh wow. >> you have not planned this out yet? >> no. we'll see each other a lot i am going to send you his flight info. >> will you be at the baggage claim? >> i will be there >> wait for me there >> i want you standing there when he walks out.
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>> i have a card sorkin >> comingup, we'll get to the trading day ahead coming off this morning a very special interview we'll sit down with mike pence talking jobs and mksar and steven moore stay tuned [leaf blower] you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out.
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make sure you join us next week huge show with warren buffett on monday in omaha. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i am carl quintanilla with faber and jim cramer the new york stocks exchange, vice president pence is going to join us this hour talking about the number and the fed and the economy at large futures added to their gain since the print and a lot else to watch including buffett and soft bank and tesla. europe is
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