maybe we'll get to it next week. stock up 22% after literally smashing earnings. what a story. >> all right leave us with a final thought? >> emerging market debt. i see some pressuronhe dollar through the end of the year and china stimulus stabilized. >> good having you back. mckesson have a great weekend, everybody. "the exchange" begins now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here is what's ahead vice president pence telling cnbc it may be time to drop the fed's dual mandate with the hot jobs market but cool inflation, is he right? and what would it mean for the markets? we'll take a look. plus, berkshire buying shares of amazon how does that growth stock fit with the rest of the company's portfolio, and why has berkshire been struggling to outperform in recent years plus, price targets are coming in for uber and facebook wants to give its users some crypto rewards it's all ahead in "rapid fire. but we begin with a nice move higher in the markets. dom chu has the numbers. >> so, nice move higher, kelly, and we're just about near the best levels of the day

you can see green across the board, almost at 200 points for the dow, so a nice, solid move higher, but it's not the standout look at the nasdaq composite, up by about 1.33%, so we are seeing a nice, hefty move to the up side after those better-than-expected jobs numbers this morning helping, at least in one factor, to propel that move higher in the markets. one other place we're watching is the general outperformance we've seen as of late in the small cap stocks in particular this particular etf, the iwm, the i-shares russell 2000 up more than the s&p today and has been an outperformer over the last week or so. and remember, this area here was a little area of a bounce. it's the convergence right now, the 50 and 200-day moving averages coming together there for small caps, one to watch then, newell brands, one of your stocks of the day. this is the company, consumer products behind big names like post-it notes and sharpie pens it's up big, 11.5% move higher after it comes out with better-than-expected earnings. but remember, this stock a real laggard, you can see over the course of the past year, but a nice move higher today, and

that's your stock of the day. >> certainly is. dom, thank you very much welcome to "the exchange," everyone i'm kelly evans. jobs growth surging in april the u.s. added 263,000 jobs. the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% that's a 50-year low average hourly earnings were a little bit softer. that growth missed estimates the year-on-year gain is now 3.2%, but corporate earnings, meantime, are now showing some growth of their own. they're just shy of 1% for the first quarter, according to refinitive last month, earnings were expected to drop 2%. bob pisani's been all over that and this rally today let's get more with him down at the new york stock exchange. hi, bob. >> hi, kelly happy friday markets are rebounding today after a couple rocky days that saw traders questioning the direction of the fed, and indeed, the direction of trade talks. traders are trying to convince themselves today that the data in the last week will keep the fed from raising and will not keep them from considering a rate cut in the future the markets have been worried that the strong gdp numbers last week and the potential of a

strong jobs number today might make the fed change its stance and become a little more hawkish, but the personal consumption numbers we saw last week and the wage growth we saw today -- kelly mentioned 3.2% on "year-over-year basis -- still pretty modest, keeping with the low inflation mantra so bond yields and the dollar both dropped today bottom line is we've got good economic numbers with continued low inflation, and market loves that the banks, by the way, have you noticed this, this week, kelly, now at their highest levels since october. big gains, 3% to 4% in all of the regionat banks. >> and coming off a nice month thank you, bob pisani. vice president mike pence voicing concerns about the fed and the direction of interest rates in an interview with eamon javers earlier today he explains why it's time to reconsider the fed's dual mandate. >> back when i was in congress, we had a whole debate about the dual mandate of the federal reserve, and it might be time for us to consider that again,

as -- >> consider what >> the fact that the fed looks at full employment and monetary policy in inflation, and instead, by just looking at inflation, you'd make clear, there's no inflation happening here, the economy is roaring this is exactly the time, not only to not raise interest rates, but we ought to consider cutting them. >> let me bring in joe livorna, chief economist, and craig callahan, president of icahn advisers great to have you here joel, first, this idea of doing away with the dual mandate to purely focus on inflation. the ecb does it. >> yes, and arguably, they have less ability to respond to shocks and inflation doesn't allow you to ease, but i have a better idea, kelly maybe go with a more rules-based approach to monetary policy. >> uh-oh, uh-oh. >> steve liesman is with taylor out in california, and a more rules-based approach where when the fed misses its targets, it reports to congress. that's what humphrey/hawkins was designed for, when first immaterial pleasanted in the

'70s, for the fed to do. have a simple rule-based approach and that may work better. >> if you said, okay, the inflation target is 2% and they've been missing that for seven years, for example, how would that change anything they're doing today? >> it may not change what they're doing today, but what it would do is it would make the fed effectively more transparent and cause less volatility. there wouldn't be communication snafus like there was last year. so, to the extent the fed would be more clear -- we knew what it was following, it explained when it missed its targets why, there would be more accountability and arguably term premium would be less, rates lower and that would be good. >> one more thing and craig can weigh in if it were simple inflation-based ruling, taking the closest to where they are on that now, 2% on the core -- we've been missing that for years -- that argues, and i think this is why the vice president was arguing for this, for the fed to be stimulating the economy to raise inflation to 2%. so, it's a more sort of

sophisticated way of saying what the president wants. the president wants rate cuts. the vice president said the same thing. is saying that inflation should be the only target just a different way of getting to that outcome? >> possibly, but you could also say, look, we weren't at full employment because we're finding the job market's still generating very strong gains that many economists didn't think were feasible. so, you could argue that one of the reasons inflation hasn't gotten to target is that we're not at full employment so, therefore, that itself means you should try to foster faster growth to give you high inflation. so there's a couple different ways to get at it. but the other thing is that a lot of this inflation is global -- >> it's not inconsistent right now because nobody's out there arguing we're at full employment, even though the rate is so great because they say there's still plenty of slide. let me get craig to weigh in mr. callahan, from an investor's point of view, what's the most important thing about this fed discussion >> first, i agree that the fed went too far last fall i think the fed funds and treasury bills should be at 2%, right in line with inflation so, i agree with vice president

pence on that. i disagree on the dual mandate if it ain't broke, don't fix it. the fed has engineered inflation dropping from 15% in 1981 to 2%, and unemployment from 10% down to 3.6%. so, the fed thinks they've done a great job, and i'd see no reason to change their mandate. >> but you're just saying they made a mistake last year would a single mandate have helped avoid that mistake? because if they didn't have 2% inflation, then they probably wouldn't have raised four times. >> european central bank has a single mandate and look where they are we're in much better shape than they are, and we've handled this last decade much better. >> so, joe, quickly, you were going to say something about how we do have a global problem when it comes to inflation, and maybe that's part of why the fed has struggled to get to its target. >> right also, the ecb, for what it's worth, has a single mandate, and they raised rates in july of '11, which is a big mistake. so again, we think we want policy flexibility

but i would argue, forget worry about the dual mandate inflation's low. inflation break-evens have fallen, forward rates have declined, expectations on the survey side are weak the fed could cut rates just because inflation looks like it could be weakening at some point. you could have a good economy and cut rates and not do anything with the dual mappedate. >> but it's so rare for that to happen and craig, you're such a thoughtful guy it's interesting to hear you arguing for look, the fed made a mistake last year, the interest rate should be lower now than it is so sounds like you would be fine with them cutting rates, even though it would be almost unprecedented, wouldn't it does it risk the chance of overheating these markets, which would be the last thing you'd want >> we don't see risk of overheating. in my view, risk-free investing, which are treasury bills, should equal the inflation rate in other words, if an investor doesn't take any risk, they should not gain on inflation that's my reasoning for a 2% treasury bill, right in line with inflation. >> all right because this is all making my head hurt, give me a quick stock pick, craig, before we go.

>> well, we still like financials, so bank of america looks as good as any. >> then there, we've done it thank you both very, very much craig callahan, joe lavorgna, it's a really good discussion. we really appreciate it. here's what's still ahead on "the exchange" -- >> announcer: coming up, he may be the oracle of omaha, but lately, buffett's berkshire has been underperforming the market. why? and do his latest portfolio moves indicate he's looking to change course? plus, low inflation, a blowout jobs report, and markets near all-time highs. we'll speak with cleveland fed president loretta mester about what it means for the fed's next move >> aouerth i"t exchange" on cnbc. here's one you guys will like.

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show me parks and rec. from netflix to prime video to live tv, xfinity lets you find your favorites with the emmy award-winning x1 voice remote. show me the best of amy poehler, again. this time around... now that's simple, easy, awesome. experience the entertainment you love on x1. access netflix, prime video, youtube and more, all with the sound of your voice. click, call or visit a store today. the berkshire hathaway annual shareholder meeting is taking place in omaha, nebraska, tomorrow, and becky quick is there as shareholders begin shopping the convention floor, just one of the many quirks about this weekend, becky. >> it is, kelly. this is an unusual annual shareholders meeting there's not too many places where you see 40,000 shareholders that will show up, and it's even less usual to see them all come through the course of a weekend, but that's exactly what's happening here in omaha for the berkshire hathaway annual meeting they just opened up the doors for the convention center.

i don't know if -- lee, i don't know if you can turn around, but if you look at the outside, there's still a huge line of shareholders that are lining up waiting to get in. i probably just messed everything up trying to look out the windows sh but there are a huge amount of people still trying to get through security because they just opened up the doors at the top of the hour here's what's inside come back on and look around here as people are beginning to come in, you can see boots for about half of the berkshire -- or a little more than half of the berkshire companies that are here -- there are about 80 berkshire companies, more than half represented here on the floor. you have one booth behind us drawing a crowd, coca-cola booth, and all around, did a walk-through earlier, fruit of the loom is down that direction. there is berkshire gear lined up here, even a voting booth to vote for charlie or warren as chairman of berkshire hathaway so, this is very unusual, a lot of things happening, but this is all under the setting of what could potentially be a lot of news tomorrow, because that's

when charlie munger and warren buffett take the stage and answer questions from shareholders coming in on a variety of topics. we had the chance to catch up with warren buffett earlier and ask him about what he's buying and selling. obviously, the markets are always concerned about that. if he's buying into something, oftentimes the stock price will surge. if he's selling, people have questions about that, too. he did tell us that berkshire hathaway has been buying shares of amazon, but he had some clarifications for that about who was behind the purchase. listen in. >> i'll tell you one thing you'll see in the 13f, which comes out in a couple weeks, which may cause you to ask me that question in two weeks but doesn't really -- is not significant from my standpoint one of the two other fellows in the office that manage money -- >> todd and ted? >> todd and ted. one of them -- some amazon -- but, so, it will show up on the 13f. it is not true to say that i am

buying amazon. it's true to say that berkshire has bought whatever shows up there. >> although you've been a fan of amazon and jeff bezos for a long time. >> yeah, i've been a fan and i've been an idiot for not buying but i just want you to know that it's no personality changes taking place here or anything. somebody else's. >> of course, the todd and the ted he was talking about in that would be todd combs and ted wechsler, the two gentlemen who joined the office in 2011 for ted, 2012 for todd they each have a portfolio of about $13 billion. that is the valuation last we were updated on it they will be here tomorrow along with all the top managers. and kelly, things are really starting to gear up right now. >> becky, i thought it was interesting that warren kind of -- if i heard him correctly, he said, and we know he's admired amazon and jeff bezos for a while. i think i heard him say i've been an idiot for not buying. >> yes. >> which i know he's said before, but while he was taking great pains to say, look it was not me who bought these shares, he also was kind of giving an

endorsement of them. >> yeah, look, i don't think he was trashing the purchase. i think he was making it clear that it wasn't him, but you're right. he said he's been an idiot for not buying to this point i had andrew ask me this morning if i thought that he would be buying additional shares, if buffett himself would be deciding that. i don't have any idea on that front. that is what happened with shares of apple. one of the other guys bought into it earlier and then he followed suit. same thing with some of the airlines that was originally one of todd's or ted's ideas, and buffett went along afterwards. i don't have any indication about what to think with these amazon shares, but at least i noticed earlier today, they were trading higher. >> they were, 3% or so last thing on this i sometimes just wonder -- and again, it's a rnging endorsement for amazon, that one of those managers even sees a lot of value there, given that the company's nearly $1 trillion in size but i do wonder if the berkshire portfolio is starting to resemble that of a more traditional, typical portfolio

manager and becoming a little less unique. they have underperformed for the last couple years, berkshire overall, and i just er, you know, it's starting to feel a little conventional to me. >> that's probably a fair assessment, but when you look at the size of the portfolio, it's $210 billion i think it's hard to find things that aren't mainstream it's hard to find things where you can actually move -- see some of the unconventional things when you're looking at things like the occidental bid earlier this week, where he agreed to put up $10 billion to help finance their bid for anadarko that's completely different. those are the types of things you don't see anywhere else. but you're right, when you've got $210 billion in securities and another $110 billion in cash sitting around, it's really hard to look different or to outperform the s&p 500 that's a point they've been making for years, and it

certainly has been the case in recent years, too. >> yeah, so true by the way, loved when you caught up with him and munger earlier today. that was great we look forward to a lot more moments like that. becky, thanks so much. good to see you. >> thanks, kell. >> becky quick is at the shareholder meeting in omaha coming up, will today's jobs report make the fed more steadfast in its hands-off approach remember, that wage number was kind of eh or will they see the strong overall numbers as a sign of an overheating economy? we'll ask cleveland fed president loretta mester. plus, burgers are big, uber is getting more coverage already, and facebook coin all that on "rapid fire," which is early, so don't miss it we're back itwn o. for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials

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welcome back to "the exchange." we have a rally on our hands on wall street today with the dow sitting near session highs as you can see there, it's up about 205 points right now that's a gain of about 0.75%, and the dow today is underperforming. the s&p is up about 1% to 2,945. and we mentioned how amazon's having a nice day after berkshire hathaway revealed it is investing in those shares but look at arista networks, one of the big movers in the session right now. it's down 12.5%. the cloud computing company beating earnings but issuing weak guidance for the second quarter. that has everybody's attention shares of universal display are

soaring and on pace to their best day since late feb. they handily beat on top and bottom lines and increased its full outlook shares are up 9% today and u.s. steel is also higher on solid earnings, helped by higher prices for some of its products. steel shares are now up 16% on the session. now to sue herera for a cnbc news update. hello, kelly hello, everyone. here's what's happening at this hour extra security, including armed police officers and bag checks will be present around mosques in new zealand as ma'am dan begins the ramped-up effort comes after a deadly terror attack in two mosques which killed 51 people. the coast guard has closed the mississippi river to boat and barge traffic near st. louis, where river levels are nearing historically high levels the flooding comes after 3 1/2 inches of rain fell across the region in the last week. well, the labor market is getting stronger, but one segment of the workforce is not feeling those gains. a report shows older workers or

those between ages of 45 and 64 have experienced almost no wage growth since 2007, while younger workers are earning nearly 5% more. and the cdc wants you to stop washing your chicken. the agency warns rinsing the raw poultry could lead to the spread of juices, which may contain salmonella or other bacteria yuck >> i'd heard that, sue, that you're not supposed to rinse it. >> i have heard it, too, but apparently, so many people do it, and there have been salmonella outbreaks this year that they put out an alert. >> it's like the kitchen is a dangerous place! >> it can be, yes. >> terrible. you know that. i remember you sliced your hand. >> there you go. >> anyhow. sue, thanks very much. >> you got it. let's catch you up on a few stories that should be on your raider today it's an early edition of "rapid fire." here to break down the headlines are contessa brewer, dominic chu, and leslie picker welcome, everybody first up, let's look at the meatless mania that continues

with beyond meat cliping in its second day of trading after finishing higher by more than 160% yesterday, guys i mean, this is just one of the most remarkable ipos we have seen in recent years the shares are up 7% to over $70 as i speak by the way, traditional burgers, shake shack, did pop earlier on comp sales and then shares reversed course and are now lower more than 4% on the meatless trend, ikea is issuing a new meatless meatball. baron says beyond meat is worth more than all the peas in america. and dom's now a flexitarian. >> i was before the ipo, for the record but this is targeting folks like me, who are making conscious decisions to go away from meat, not because we have some crazy aversion to it, but because for health reasons or anything else, we want to eat more plant-based foods. my doctor would love that i'm eating more of this stuff, but -- >> but beyond meat isn't actually that healthy itself they have a lot of saturated fat

and stuff, right >> they do they're supposed to mimic meat, and that's one of the investment thesises of the company. they're trying to tackle folks who like burgers but are looking for a different type of plant-based protein for it. >> but beyond vegetables, if you look at the dairy consumption, that's gone down because people are moving to almond milk, coconut milk if you look at yogurt, yogurt sales are suffering as people move to plant-based yogurts -- >> there's plant-based yogurts >> that's right. same thing, coconut, tofu -- >> oat milk based. >> yes, exactly. >> and then look at who wants to get into it. you mentioned ikea's doing it, but burger king is testing out a vegetarian whopper that lets you know how big a deal it is tyson foods, by the way, one of the biggest meat producers in the world, is up more than 40% year to date so, we're not -- >> and developing its own meatless products. >> because tyson was an investor in beyond meat, right? so, that was the -- >> i kind of left that hanging

there. >> you're just rattling them off, lining them up one by one i guess the last thing, leslie, to say on this is does the success of beyond meat now trigger -- i mean, if every banker isn't out there to every company in this space saying you have an opportunity now to tap the public markets. >> oh, yeah, absolutely. it certainly sets a bar for all of the other companies operating in this space. one of those that comes to mind is impossible burger -- >> making the burger king one. >> valued around $1 billion in the private markets. if they wanted to go public, the comp they would use is beyond burger, which is just soaring. so, they would be able to raise so much more in proceeds and as we talked about, the key here in this game, especially with all the competition, is really on the research and development side of things i mean, just because they're meatless burgers doesn't mean they're coming up from the ground it's all lab-based. >> a name you're going to hear a lot, don thompson, former ceo at mcdonald's, on the board at beyond meat -- >> wow. >> why

because burger king gets impossible the speculation is who goes the beyond meat route? >> absolutely. we asked about that yesterday, too, so we'll see. and that might explain some of the hype around the stock. speaking of ipos, uber is getting its third conference initiation today atlantic equities giving the ride-hailing giant a neutral rating with a price target of $55. there are now two neutrals and one overweight on the street, which would not have happened if lyft hadn't debuted the way it did. >> oh, certainly and this is coming with uber's price expectations even more paired back since lyft went public what i thought was really interesting in this note, though, is it's kind of buried deep within it, is they talk about one of the key risks being autonomous vehicles. >> risks. >> which is interesting, because as we've seen this road show go on and we've talked with investors, everyone sees autonomous vehicles as kind of this binary thing that could actually help propel uber to profitability -- >> look how much lyft talked about it as, hey, invest in us, and once we can get rid of the driver, we'll have a great business model. >> look at this when we don't

have to pay people to drive our vehicles atlantic equities believes the growth in the vehicles could provide disintermediatation to lyft and uber because it could present new areas of competition they're not currently grappling with and as we know, with ride-hailing, competition is a dirty word. >> you can tap anyone's fleet to get the product you need. >> tesla, look at elon musk. he had an investor day based on autonomous vehicles and the idea of putting leasing vehicles for tesla out there because it could be vehicles coming off lease could end up becoming part of the fleet for some of these autonomous vehicles? that's a big deal. >> you're jumping ahead. so let's just jump right in, because we have a ton of tesla news today shares are jumping once again after the company increased the size of their stock and bond offering announced yesterday they're now selling 3.1 million shares at a price of $243. that's about 400,000 more than they said before elon musk plans to buy $25 million in equity, up from the $10 million figure we saw, and he owes about $500,000 to the

banks helping tesla raise question shares are up 4.5%. >> so what happens if he faces a margin call -- >> right. >> -- and is forced to liquidate those shares what happens to the share price then that would be one thing i would be think being -- >> for sure. >> -- if you're thinking of buying into this big sale. >> that's what robert frank was saying yesterday when you've seen previous companies where the investor gets -- the founder gets a little bit too intertwined with that, you can have -- run into some problems down the road. >> with tesla, this is a situation where the stock is, yes, really down on the year, and you're raising questionable levels of capital that people think could either be your lifeline for the next two years or just another reason why your people are throwing good money after bad. but what this does do is it provides at least a little bit of life support, right >> yeah. >> it gets maybe some of the shorts to rethink a situation right now. >> speaking of shorts, tilson said they couldn't do a secondary above -- $243 is -- relative to the bear case, that's why there's some relief. >> i think this is the perfect story for financial

psychologists, because you look at a situation where if you're an investor in tesla -- >> did you say financial psychologists? >> how do i get into that? >> behavioral finance, you know, people who study the spiritual forces in the market, and you know, the minds behind it. but you know, you look at a situation like tesla where you have all these investors in there, and they're just kind of clinging to their seats hoping they have the balance sheet that can take them into as long as they want to hold the stock for. here's a situation where you have a capital raise, the stock goes up on that, even though the equity holders are getting diluted because it's like, at least i'm going to be okay for a little bit longer. and the collective mind-set of the market is such that enough people believe in tesla that they're willing to pay more to support this business for a little bit longer. >> i agree psychologically, it is a great case study it really is how about facebook jumping into the crypto game under the code name project libra they are planning a digital coin users can send to each other and use to make purchases on facebook and across the internet another idea reportedly on the table is to pay users a fraction

of a coin when they view ads or shop on the platform in other words, the consumer model of, hey, you'll get points for spending time here. >> this is fascinating to me, because facebook has 2 billion active monthly users and so, it has a base here where it could really make this happen it could compete with apple pay. and to me, even more interestingly, you guys know there's all kinds of industries right now tossing around the idea of their own coins -- oil can we bypass sanctions and currency costs if we have our own coin or in casinos in macau, they're trying to do it with dragon coin or whatever, in cryptocurrency, to avoid the costs of moving money from one place into another. if you have facebook doing it, there is a stabilization effect where the price, unlike bitcoin, isn't going up and down. it's not volatile. you know what you're going to be able to pay for -- >> because they're going to back it with $1 billion of their own -- >> it's a situation where that could buy u.s. dollars -- >> am i pushing it forward to much if i say, what if facebook ends up being the treasurer to

the world? they're already the communication network of the world -- >> i think we might be a long way from there you might be overstating it. but the blockchain has lost a lot of steam it was the buzz word of the year last year and the year before that the idea that facebook is getting into it now when a lot of people are cooling off on it is maybe a little bit of a tell. >> or when jpmorgan got involved, that seems like an interesting initiative they're working on, certainly some of the back-office stuff, but the facebook coin, leslie, i wonder if it's a way for them to say i'm cool in doing kind of the gimmicky consumer thing, using points and rewards for using the platform. >> i think that's one of the most interesting aspects of the concept to begin with, this idea that you could effectively receive part of facebook coin for viewing an ad, say so, you could theoretically make a little bit of money just by being on their platform, which you know, at least according to the article, they believe will help kind of rid them of this -- >> scummy sense that they're -- >> scummy reputation that they

have -- >> data -- >> there's all the engagement, too. >> it's just interesting for facebook that they're going in this direction guys, thank you all. appreciate it very much. that does it for "rapid fire," contessa brewer, dom chu and leslie picker. here's what's still ahead on "the exchange." >> announcer: the push for a rate cut intensifying today as the vice president joins the growing choice is the fed listening or tuning out the noise? we'll ask cleveland fed president loretta mester. and they're off! the 145th run for the roses is tomorrow we'll head live to churchill downs for a look at the big money behind the big race with mike tirico. what's a target date fund? what's a hedge fund? a mutual fund? an index fund? what should i ask my investment professional? how do i know if they're even legit? edgar? who's edgar? how do i read a 10-k? what about fees? what's an etf? 529 plan? 401(k)? how do we plan for retirement?

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welcome back to "the exchange." the fed squarely in focus today as the jobs report comes in better than expected, and the administration's calls for rate cuts continue. how do members of the fed feel about all that scrutiny? let's ask one. steve liesman joins me now in a first on cnbc interview with cleveland fed president loretta mester steve? >> kelly, thanks very much here at the hoover institution annual monetary policy conference it's become quite a deal, right? practically the whole committee,

you could take a vote in there on interest rates now if you wanted to. >> a lot of people listening, exactly. >> loretta, thank you for joining us let's talk about the jobs report this morning 260,000-plus jobs created. are you ready to go raise rates because the economy's running so hot? >> no. you know, i fully support our patient approach to looking at what the data is telling us as it comes in. the job market is strong and today's report just reinforces that we have a strong labor market, which is great we have inflation a little bit below our target, but stable prices we have productivity growth growing, which is a good positive for the economy and growth came in in the first quarter a little bit stronger than people had anticipated. now, grant you, some of that was inventory-building, so we'll have to look to see what it implies for the second quarter, but growth is good so, i think we're in a really good place our interest rate policy i think is exactly appropriate for now and we'll just see how the economy evolves. >> 3.6% unemployment do you worry that the employment

market's too tight >> no. i think we have to take on the ground, you know we don't see inflationary pressures building we do see people getting back to work labor force participation is growing over time, although it was down a little bit in this last report. people are working wages are not accelerating, but they're growing, so that's a good thing they're growing in line with productivity growth, so this is a strong economy these are good numbers. >> can you put more detail on that when you say growing in line because the vice chairman said that today as well 3.2% is in line, more or less, with recent productivity numbers or whatever. as long as it's not above what the combined productivity and inflation, you don't worry that that pushes inflation up higher? >> yeah, because usually you'd see in the longer run that wages are going to be going with productivity growth and inflation. as long as it doesn't go above that, then there's no real feed through to price inflation. >> so i can factor in the future, if it's 4%, that's still okay, as long as it's below those two numbers -- >> well, productivity growth rising is a good thing for the

economy, right >> did you see the recent decline, president mester, of the core inflation numbers as being transitory or something to worry about? >> there's good reason to think some of that weakness is transitory so again, you don't want to overreact to one report. i do think that we have to take seriously our 2% inflation goal and work to try to get inflation back to our goal over time, but i also agree that we need to be patient about it and we need to look at the data and underlying data to understand what's going on i would be concerned if inflation and expectations were falling, if aggregate demand was falling, if the signal of low inflation was that growth was going down, but there's no evidence of that the economy's in a really strong place, so i'm willing to be patient, right, on the inflation on the down side as well as inflation on the up side >> does patient mean you want to do something eventually? do you have an idea of where you'd like policy to go? would you be -- >> no, i honestly think we're

well calibrated right now. and of course, we always have to be forward-looking, but it's got to be based on where we think the economy is going. >> but you would not prefer, for example, there were some people who had a neutral rate of 3% -- you would not prefer to get there, but you're just patient in getting there >> no, because as you know, what clarita talked about today is that those numbers are measured with a lot of confidence bands around them. so, they're estimates. and so, you always have to be taking the signals from the market, signals from the real economy, signals from the price data, to capitol berate where your policy is we're about at a neutral rate because we can see that in the economy. we don't have building pressures, inflation, we have growth above trend, which is a good place to be. >> growth above trend is interesting. we did 3% last year. we did a surprise 3% in first quarter, but there's some stuff in there. >> right. >> what's your best guess for what we do this year >> i'm between 2% and 2.5% the first quarter came in a

little bit stronger than i thought it was going to, so i'm probably in the upper part of that range now -- >> so 2.5% >> yeah, probably, i would say. >> is the risk to the up side or the down side? >> i think it's balanced right now. i think there's good reason to think that some of the up side, if you know, some of the uncertainty on trade, that will come off so i'm seeing balanced risks out there. >> how about the global risks out there? chairman powell talked on wednesday that some of that has subsided do you have less concern now about what's happening in europe >> i think some of it has subsided we do have more positive numbers out of china brexit was postponed, so that was an uncertainty there, postponed. but again, i think we had to watch the data we have to see how it's going in europe there are weaker numbers coming in on certain parts of europe and stronger in other. we're in this sort of monitoring the economy now. >> president mester, thank you for joining me today. >> thank you. >> kelly, back to you, where things are remarkably cool here in san francisco >> okay, steve, they're here,

too. >> it's just a mellow time nobody's worried about anything. >> feels like davos last year. we know how that ended but anyhow -- >> it always worries me, exactly, when people are that calm about things. >> steve, thanks very much appreciate it, and our thanks to cleveland fed president loretta mester for a great interview as well. well, grab a mint julep and your best hat. the 145th kentucky derby is tomorrow we'll adivtohuhihe le crcll downs for a look at the big business for the run for the roses, next. rowing business. from using feedback to innovate... to introducing products faster... to managing website inventory... and network bandwidth. giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence.

welcome back we've been picking up steam and markets are at session highs right now with the dow up 212 points 217 was the high so far today. just under a 1% gain for the blue chips we are now equal to that for the s&p 500, up 29 points. the nasdaq is now up 1.5%, paced by amazon, but a lot of other contributors to that 120-point gain. the kentucky derby airs tomorrow on nbc. for this year's run for the

roses, it's expected to bring in more than $350 million to the louisville area, plus a whole lot of mint juleps and big hats. joining me live from churchill downs to talk all things derby and more is nbc sports host mike tirico welcome. it's great to have you >> reporter: without a mint julep or a nice hat, but good could be with you, kelly. >> save it for tomorrow. >> reporter: exactly. >> i saw that the purse is 3 million bucks. it's the biggest and the first increase in 14 years, and this is all because of a new gambling facility >> reporter: yeah, there is -- you know, as many of your viewers might know, churchill downs, the track, is one thing, but there's also a company that goes with churchill downs, and they've been publicly traded for a while. they're on the nasdaq. and the gambling business in general, the wagering business in america continues to grow and that's a little part of this also, the revenue that comes in around the derby is significant. you'll have 100,000 people here today for the kentucky oaks, which is later on nbcsn. that's the biggest race of the

year for phillys, 3-year-old fillies. and then the race is tomorrow. you mentioned the economic impact on the city of louisville obviously with folks coming in and spending their money, there's enough to bump up the purse a little bit. >> i can imagine it's interesting mike, so in the last four years, we've had two triple crown winners, including last year. >> reporter: yes. >> that is a tough act to follow who are people looking at? where would you tell our viewers to put their money this weekend? >> reporter: well, i can't give financial advice here on cnbc, can i? but here's what i will say, the triple crown is very rare. it didn't happen for 36 years, and then we've had two in the last 4 years last year it was justified so, extremely rare but it does happen in clusters historically over a century of horse racing there is no superhorse coming in this year. it doesn't mean a horse can't do it what needs to happen is the horse needs to win here, then two weeks from now in the preakness, three weeks after that, the belmont. horses never run three races that close together. so it's a little bit of luck, a

little good health and a lot of it's a terrific horse. omaha beats was the horse favored coming in but was scratched on wednesday there is no blemish on whoever wins because it wasn't considered this unbeatable horse. there are three horses trained by bob baffert, who's the best trainer in the country right now, and those three horses are for right now the favorites. but any one of a half dozen horses could win come tomorrow afternoon. >> those are roadster, gamewinner and improbable. i have time to ask you one more, so i have to decide whether it will be about the japanese business model angle here, which is fascinating with this new horse, master fencer, and a whole new line of betting coming in asia because of that, but frankly, i'm going to ask you about what the giants think about taking daniel jones? what do you think? >> reporter: that's a good pivot. nobody's done that pivot on me in the history of television daniel jones we had him against notre dame when duke played notre dame. good quarterback, similar to eli manning, taught by david cutcliffe, his college coach at duke, who's a terrific coach and was the offensive coordinator

for peyton manning at tennessee in college 21 years ago and then the head coach for eli manning at ole miss. daniel jones is a good quart quarterback. six is probably steeper than a lot of people thought he would go in the draft, maybe more in the middle of the first round. but dave gettleman and the giants -- we're talking betting, right? they've gone all in on this is going to be the guy to replace eli manning. in a couple years, we'll find out if it was the right move or not. good thing for them, they don't have to throw jones into play in week one he can learn from eli this year and maybe next year. the question is, could you have used the pick for a more immediate impact, because that's where draft picks have been coming out on the field a little quicker. >> although he gave a really nice interview and sounds like a really nice guy. >> reporter: thank you have a great weekend. >> best of luck. have a great weekend mike tirico with nbc sports. don't miss nbc's live coverage of the 2019 kentucky derby that starts tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. eastern time. now, 5g is coming, and telecom companies need workers to help build out the

technology we'll head live to a training facility in texas for a look at erthjo a, xt whe e bsrene alright boys, time for bed.

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country, demand is for workers as well. kate rogers is live in louisville louis-ville, or loo-eville >> reporter: we are at one of the 5g training facilities for workers. five of these across the country as they roll out the 5g network, nationwide, partnering with a major wireless ericson has about 1700 to install the networks, training here 35,000 towers nationwide and they will get to 1 million in the next four years. >> tower climbers are really the backbone behind the network. you know, they climb infrastructure, whether it's rooftops or major towers and they actually assemble they construct the equipment on top of these cell towers that we all use every day.

>> reporter: now, entry level climbers can make about $40,000 a year, benefitting includes a 401(k) plan and tuition reimbursement for those looking to advance their careers the training process takes about three weeks. workers climb these polls that average about 120 feet out in the field and learning the antenna radios used for 5g the days are long but they have travel and learning new technologies, kelly. as the system rolls out, the company looking to hire at least 1,000 more climbers in the next two years. back to you. >> thank you so much, kate i know guys who do this by the way, and they're tough this is no joke. kate rogers, appreciate i have the. 42% of top business school graduates are women. yet they only represent 4% of the top jobs in investing. why women aren't applying for those positions, that's next coming up monday, live from the 24th annual glennview. my ma,

but i didn't know how. i was working the same job for a few years. i had a degree and some experience but no career. i opened the careerbuilder app and found an awesome job at a company i love. it even built a resume for me with skills i didn't know i had. i applied with a tap. and i start on monday. careerbuilder. work can work.

you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that mes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. welcome back job growth soaring with unemployment falling across the board. the jobless rate for women dropped to a 66 year low

we just told you where the jobs were but where they aren't women are making gains but still face obstacles in finance. let's bring in karen firestone, a cnbc contributor welcome. >> thank you >> these are tiny numbers. 4% of the top jobs in the investment business are women. they control 2% of mutual fund assets, 1% of hedge fund assets. these numbers are tiny why so small >> it has taken decades to even get to these numbers so we're talking about 42% of mbas are women 25% to 33% who enter investment banks and large asset managers are women and then the numbers scale down so is it because the reputation for these firms is tough it seems that social media has exacerbated that you can look on all types of platforms, job forums, and young women can read about how tough it is to move to the top

>> w >> bias or the hours >> it's a combination. it's a boys' club culture, even if the firms try to do something about that, that's the reputation they have to overcome we find that because women, when they get to a certain level, don't get promoted perhaps to the extent that men do, there may be some bias that's inherent, but i think the companies are trying to change that, but there are no role models there are so few role models. >> but here you are. >> i'm here with you we're talking about it it's good. it's good. >> so talk about your own experience into this field was it pure interest and so you kind of had to fight through or was there a female role model for you? >> there really wasn't i was interested in the investment business from an early age. worked at merrill lynch in high school i knew i wanted to go to the business i took fidelity for 22 years

fund for years there were no women ahead of me saying we just sort of had to make that way. >> and you said when you started your own fund, you experienced the same kind of issue where it was very tough that early fund raising, right because people just aren't as comfortable. >> it's interesting. we started i had a male partner and he and i, you know, we bent ogged our families, give us money and then it was his contacts, not mine. i think mine waited until we had the numbers. so women need to prove themselves in a way that i think men don't. it's just harder, and i'm just looking for an equal playing field because the numbers are as good performance numbers for women are as good as for men they just don't get funded at the same rate and institutions don't look to find these women they're out there. the supply isn't as small. >> we need that female warren buffett on all the magazine covers something like that so that th young girls think about this as a field and not just, you know, the obvious alternative.

>> so more awareness is great. >> you're trying, good to see you. karen firestone. that does it for "the exchange." i'll join tyler and melissa for "power lunch" which begins right now. thank you, kelly we'll see you in just a moment i'm melissa lee with tyler mathisen new at 2:00. the american economy firing on all cylinders. job growth blowing out expectations is the economy at risk though of overheating and could rate hikes be back on amazon shares are rallying warren buffett says he's been buying the stock, so why now we'll head live to berkshire hathaway move over uber what could the next ipo be and mean for investors start-ups staying private for longer "power lunch" starts right now >> thank you, melissa. welcome everybody to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen glad you could join