tv Fast Money CNBC May 3, 2019 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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we are in the market lyft earnings which is interesting, and mike, today resoundingly positive and taking us flat for what was otherwise a challenging week coming back off the highs. >> it goes down as an up week and it's important for some folks up 17.5% for the s&p. >> have a lovely weekend, everyone thanks for watching. that does it for "closing bell". >> "mofast money" begins right now. >> i'm melissa lee tim seymour, phil camp relly of j.p. morgan, steve grasso and guy adami. the market rally is back on. the dow surging after a strong jobs report and there is one chart that could mean record highs are here to stay we've got the details, plus lyft spinning down ahead of its earnings down 13% from the ipo price and is the ipo boom about to go bust but first, it's a jungle out there and berkshire hathaway is going head first with amazon he's making a bet on the tech
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giant. the stock has had a wild ride so far this year. it's up 30% in 2019. their 230 billion in market cap and now within striking distance of all-time highs and do you keep buying amazon here or is this as good as it gets for the stock, guy >> guns' n roses >> i think we have >> of course, you can. flash or duff mckagan? >> flash >> i think you're wrong. duff was the heart and soul of the band, but slash was the pretty boy >> he's going to tie this in. >> i'll tell you welcome to the jungle right now and you were about to leave the jungle until warren buffett said i'm going to get myself a little amazon long, too and that's why the stock is higher in my opinion. if you looked at the quarter when they reported that stock was headed significantly below
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$1900 until one thing happened and the thing was one-day delivery and that gave the stock a little bit of breathing room and yesterday you saw the weakness in the stock with the broader market again, the stock wanted to go lower and you have a lifeline. it's like the show "who wants to be a millionaire," 2025 who was the all-time high last summer and you had a monster double top and it goes down i'm not saying short the stock and i'm saying they've had a tremendous run and take money off the table. >> why are they doing one-day delivery because they feel like target's coming down and walmart is coming down and all of the numbers have peaked quarter over quarter. >> which numbers have peaked >> sales, 46%, aws, versus 49% what numbers are we talking about? this has been a growth company with an exponential growth that is slowing they're losing momentum and what are they doing a massive investment period.
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>> the move to spend $800 million to go from a two day to one day is hardly a cost that bothers me, and look, it's easy to be critical of amazon on a valuation basis. i certainly have been critical, but if we go back to welcome to the jungle, after we say welcome to the jungle then we have fun and games. we've got everything you want. >> is that a lyric to the song? >> yes >> what more do you need for mega-cap tech right now that the fed is absolutely giving you the green light to do whatever you want and you have a company that to me is as bulletproof as there is in the tech world despite the fact that they've warned you they'll spend more >> they've slowed before they're spending though, tim >> it's 37% versus 90. >> i'm serious they continue to grow at a pace than they were aws i think is probably the weaker part of this not on a relative basis and it's
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certainly where the best growth has come, but i do think there is a more competitive dynamic in what's become commoditized >> that used to be their lifeline aws, and if that's slowing there's a real problem with amazon because the actual brick and mortar stores aren't doing anything and no one expected them to do anything and you expected to see exponential growth where they've had it and you're seeing that slow. it's still great growth, but you're seeing that slow. >> i understand your points about amazon and the growth may show signs of slowing, but in terms of the ultimate lifeline, tim hit it on the head and that is the fed the fed plus today's jobs report was a signal to go ahead and buy growth >> we have everything you want and that's what we saw in today's market and doesn't that give amazon a lifeline >> on wednesday they basically said this is a hard bar for us to do anything we're on hold and patient and those future casts are low and let's not underestimate the power of the consumer and make
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the case that the consumer has never looked better in the cycle as they do right now as they do driven by wage inflation and very low interest rates and the stock market net worth, right? things are like that powerful drivers for amazon >> the net worth applies 5% of the population. >> everybody's got debt. >> and i agree with that >> consumer optimism for me, the only thing it is is an overlay of the s&p 500 and not suggesting that people own stocks and people feel better when the stock market goes up and you see how fast consumer spending stops and just go back to october and december and the only reason it did is because in my opinion the stock market went down 20% and yes, the consumer will spend money and i think the fed is on to that game and by the way, just off the subject, but mike pence, it's pretty crazy when you talk about 3.5% unemployment and 3.2 gdp and it's madness, in my opinion.
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>> it is if we go back to the broader market and you had transports and everything that was cyclical and emerging markets are back on the beam and two days after we were concerned about the dollar breaking out again and you can make the argument that the dollar is trapped and i think it's ludicrous and i agree with you, guy. >> that puts a lid on things >> it certainly puts a lid on the dollar, but it gets back to -- i'm not saying that i like this holistically and i'm not tell young that markets aren't expensive and in an environment where rates are actually going lower and we have a supportive fed and we have gdp north of 2% even if we're going into lower ism and the leading indicators and you pick them and i realize this isn't a blank global investment environment and this is the best bet. >> you've been bearish, but here, i mean, can you see the argument for a market that goes higher even if it's adrift higher >> you have to stick with the
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overall growth players so it's going to be tech tech is the outstanding, that's the buy if the market continues to go higher, but it cuts both ways six names plus the fang and plus the apple and the microsoft will go down the hardest when the market fails and it cuts both ways >> i think that it shouldn't be misconstrued as a flight to quality trade and everybody knows those names and it's last year like in october because everybody thought let me go buy tech because that is not going to go down and that is not the right answer >> i'll give you a trade there, young lady and you weren't here in the beginning of the week and you look tan, by the way great job by you getting tan. >> always use sunscreen. >> beautiful this time of year >> very close. >> when google orring alphabet reported, the stock was trading at 12:10 or so and one of the things we said, no, there's probably further room to the down side and it should trade down to 1150 and it's the
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december low and the recent high makes perfect sense and why don't you go back and look where we're basically stuck on it. >> 1158 or so? $8 away. >> so what does that mean? now you have something to trade for googen. >> intel and google after this earnings period we're overly beaten up especially when you're looking at valuation if you are concerned with the market near its all-time top and the warren buffett connection to amazon which a lot of people wanted to on eye think we tend to overdue this stuff with all due respect to mr. buffett and i don't know when he bought this stock and it's the same thing as looking as the filing and berkshire has finally embraced amazon and we don't know when they decided to do that. >> it's years, and they missed the move, ted, tom, tim and on. >> i don't want to do any disrespect. >> todd and ted. >> todd and ted, they came out in when?
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2011 and 2012. they missed amazon if they'd just bought it now they missed amazon to the tune of 832%. >> it's from the moment they bought it to whenever. it could still be a great return i'm not trying to defend them at all. >> tom and ted, the venture. >> the lieutenants who managed the small portfolios >> you have to pick up a paper. >> is that what we do here we're in the media and -- >> i'm supposed to know. they bought it not him >> what does tim do? >> so we -- you don't follow warren buffett warren buffett has stayed away from technology. the tech that he bought was apple which is good and ebb which was terrible. >> not tim, talking about tom and ted. >> tom, tim. >> warren buffett is on mount rushmore, right? all those things mickey mantel. >> and even -- >> the other conversation, but i'll mention this, when he --
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when they announced they'd bought j.p. morgan that was so not a warren buffett-berkshire hathaway buy why because it was trading 32 times book and i'm sure mr. buffett is overseeing this, but there are clearly other people now making decisions, so i don't think this is a berkshire hathaway purchase of ten years ago or so. >> i also think warren buffett does an excellent job at making investments for a horizon that a lot of investors aren't ready to do >> they're not our horizon >> you made it a point to say it wasn't his purchase. >> he made it a point to say it wasn't his purchase which makes me think it has zero to do with any of his history about being the top investor of our life >> i just want to say from a perspective of what berkshire hathaway typically invests and
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they are looking to buy some stuff that was bombed out. in the crisis, warren buffett made calls on a person that people weren't stepping by and it is very different buying amazon at this stage of the cycle and seef's right what have you been waiting for if it took you this long and am one is figuring out ways to decide -- >> right now it is way long on the tooth and they're telling you they're making an investment they're telling you they're making an investment in the face of slowing growth no matter how good that growth still is. >> this could be an acknowledgement that we are at a point in the cycle where you have to be in large-cap technology and value is harder to find these days >> that goes become to the tech story of what folks believe that
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future value of cash flows mean and if interest rates are staying low, listen, it will be really hard for the ten-year treasury to get past this year and in that environment with that bar so high for the fed to do anything, the tech looks good in this environment. >> i also think, and sorry i keep jumping back in amazon. amazon made logistics with housing and erp things people didn't understand for a long time and they woke up one day and amazon has been able to control infrastructure and when they told me they can have invest i have to listen and i think they probably know what they're doing and that doesn't scare me >> we have a market flash on occidental petroleum and let's go to eric chemey. >> occidental petroleum moving after carl i kacahn has developa new position and it's 2% or more just a couple of seconds ago and
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that is a bloomberg report saying carl icahn is building a position in the stock and in the friday after hours >> eric in the newsroom with news on occidental petroleum this is an interesting twist in this whole deal situation. >> carl getting involved in the game we talked about anadarko petroleum is a name we talked about for a long time and now on everybody's radar screen, carl getting into the action makes you wonder some of the other names that seemed to make sense just on flat valuation i'll say it again. the stock hasn't performed, dan nathan fricka sees me almost every night on this desk rightly so >> what he's fricaseeing >> he carves me up, right? throws some high heat and a nasty slider and it's just nasty. >> will people follow carl in
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the same way if you look at the chart and this is around where this stock bounced? is it around where it's bounced before emp definitely garner and suck up a lot of the oxygen in the room when you're looking at energy to buy, so yes, they would chase him and i would not let this spike higher and i would let him settle in after the carl icahn effect is up. >> disney has been unstoppable and will the magic fade after the earnings report next week. >> plus, don't call it a comeback and adidas is neck and neck with its rival nike and the traders will weigh in and tech ipo mania could be a $100 billion splash, but could that euphoria be a bubble is brewing in we veheha t details we are at times square with fast money. much more after this
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>> welcome back to "fast money." check out shares of lyft the stock higher, but down 13% since the ride sharing company went publics it gears up for its earnings report next week and as uber gets ready to make its debut and softbank considers its ipo for the $100 billion fund which includes uber, slack,
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doordash, wag, and the hottest companies before they go public, but doesn't an ipo of ipos signal some sort of top to all of this euphoria >> it sounds a little top thome, but when you think about it, lyft versus uber, people were making room in their books for uber so they move in lyft. uber is the 800-pound gorilla in the room everyonements awe piece of that ipo. the market is higher and the ipos come out more and it doesn't necessarily mean it's a top. weren't they making room for uber wasn't lyft down day three >> lyft was down day one from its high >> so i think, first of all, i am concerned and yes, softbank, you know, ipo fund and ipoing is the second derivative, oh, my goodness, but i do think i have a dynamic if amazon is rallying and you're seeing mega tech
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rallying and there are people investing in innovation and growth and there's much of the market that aren't rallying and people are willing to pay for those companies and leaving aside beyond meat, almost meat >> beyond meat beyond meat is the case where people are looking at disruption in meat. i don't want to bring this up and they're looking at companies where you actually have a dynamic that i think is still one of innovation, and i think people are paying for that. >> i mean, it's idiosyncratic growth that they're looking for these particular companies and that's not where we are in the market >> think when ipos do well, that's not a lynchpin for this market in my opinion the lynchpin in the market has to do with really easy, financial conditions causing the groind higher. so it would be nice to have if these ipos go out and people start to feel good about uber and lyft and from our perspective, that will go for the fundamental growth story.
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>> so the vision fund is thinking of raising money for another vision fund. imagine all of this money and follow my logic here >> they've got it. >> all of this money to be deployed into private companies right now. what does that do to the pipeline in terms of the characteristics of the companies that do eventually public in the private market so easily and will there be more mature companies with less upside >> wow >> like a pinterest, for example, which is a rather mature company >> that is -- that was, like, a crazy in-depth question. >> really? >> oh, yeah. >> no, i was able to follow it you would never expect that from her? >> on a friday >> to me >> the companies are more mature >> it certainly rhymes and uber said in their 345-page outline, there is a chance that they're never profitable think about that, when was the
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last time we heard that in 1999? >> every roprospectus has that. >> never from fitablprofitable >> that's a risk it's want a bad stock to trade >> for more on the ipo mania and what is coming up next, head over to cnbc.com i'm melissa lee. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide in the meantime, here's what cells coming up on fast. never! >> never ♪ ♪ [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.
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earnings giant beat earnings results. the companies had been working on its supply chain issues and that business is booming in china. >> we are still a very, very hot brand in china and that's why we have not seen a substantial slowdown of our business in china. we have doubled our business in china within the last four years which is the biggest country in the world for us, so we're very, very optimistic for china and for the future >> the move in adidas today putting it now neck to neck with nike with both stocks up 28% in the past year. so here's a friday would you rather -- >> oh, boy. >> adidas or nike, tim >> i would rather nike nike is the standard to be set in let's go back to innovation in footwear. this is truly why north america is caught back up for being a headwind for the company and dtc in china is accelerating and look, i get the rivalry that's
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existed between nike and adidas and if you played this would you rather two years ago and the last 12 months have been calling it even. in the meantime, nike caught up and nike is moving ahead of adidas >> you like the consumer in general? >> yes this is the only thing that james harden can beat kevin durant >> you lost mel. >> lost melissa? >> i don't know sport things it is a consumer discretionary play my son loves both adidas and nike, right? this is a consumer discretionary? >> did you like the way you played the would you rather? >> dan nathan is not fair. he can't do either >> well, he just did the problem is valuation times 28 times next year's numbers and you go back to the next quarter and you see the inventories in check and we have 7% sales growth and the inventory is up 1% year over year and the margins will hang in there >> did you pick nike
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>> adidas. and the online sales are up 40% and china's killing it and europe is going to come back on. they are stealing market share from nike and adidas is the play >> it is time for the final trade. tim seymour. >> speaking of killing it in china. alibaba you're buying on a breakout and trade deal or not, alibaba is the stock to own. >> it's hard not to like the s&p 500 here and a trade for me as financials remain really, really accommodative here and it makes sense that the path of least resistance. >> thank you for joining us. >> steve wrk and another stock that's been under pressure olin corp and it is going to perform very, very soon. >> what do you have on tonight >> it's always special, guy. >> yes, he's in the wings. >> someone said that carter braxton was a founding -- like the declaration of independence.
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hi there we're live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square on this cloudy friday evening the guys are getting ready behind me, but in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on the show ♪ ♪ >> oil is surging this year and the chart master says it's about to bubble even higher. he'll break it down. plus -- >> are you ready dance! ♪ ♪ are you ready for more video game earnings? mike ko is, and he's about to
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