probably with more drama and uncertainty than we thought before, so i think there's still two-way risk and you backed off enough that if you get a deal quickly, it seems like they'll take the issue off the radar screen for a while and it would get a reflex relief rally. >> we will leave it there for today. the markets closed flat for the dow and the other indices slightly lower thanks for watching. that does it for "closing bell "qwest. >>. >> "fast money starts right now ". i'm melissa lee. >> tim seymour and guy adami, check out shares disney. the conference call is going on and we'll hear from bob iger later this hour and we've got the man who wrote the book on disney literally jim stewart of "the new york times" will be here to give us instant reaction and the market attempting to make up some ground today and deal hopes and falling short of the close take a look at some of the trade war casualty across the board

this week and u.s. steel, the biggest loser down 9% and the tech giant alibaba under pressure look with wynn and deere. so as deal talks hang in the balance, could this be your best chance to buy these stocks or is there more pain ahead? >> can i ask you a quick question >> yes >> what was the name of that song >> i have no idea. >> who was the name of the band who created that >> war >> let's keep going. thanks. >> why do you do that to me? can we resume the show we are one minute in and we haven't gotten anywhere. we're starting with u.s. steel trade it or fade it, guy >> a couple of weeks ago it was the nfl draft. >> you're right. >> petey and i were in agreement, we were talking and he said what do you have i said u.s. thiel and i said what do you have john deere we decided we would orchestrate a trait so with the first pick of trade it or fade it, guy adamy is trading u.s. steel to

john deere >> this stock was $45 back in february of 2015 and here it is trading at $15 when it's been at these levels in the past and i love what we see so he's trading it >> you're trading it >> yes >> that means green one. thank you angle at cliffs. are you cleared to answer? >> i traded it to pedro. >> right >> you don't have conviction. >> if anything -- i do have conviction on it, but petey seemed to have more, but i'll say this again. >> i'll say this, if you go back this stock last year into march was going from 35 to 45, all of the fundamentals lined up and then president trump correctly or incorrectly, that's not a political show, said you know what i'm tariffs and i'm tariff man and here you go. the stock went from basically $45 to current levels in a straight line and the fundamental story that's all deteriorated has not deteriorated to that extent and

i'm in the pete najarian spot. >> from this moment forward there should not be allowed any signs of trade it or fade it that was the first and last trade of a assigned. >> i'll tell you what, because it's actually a different game >> no, it was a double trade >> u.s. steel, tim >> u.s. steel. i'll trade it, too, at the risk of being born so i'm long the stock. >> guy talked about the dynamic that the trade took the stock down think about the busch trade tariffs and these have actually exceeded that, hot new coil almost near all-time prices and they are legally bound to hold back on supply which is pushing up iron/ore prices and at a 3% economy with industrial companies, you know, not falling apart, you want to own steel companies here and you want to wait through this because it's got to be sloppy >> a lot of this weakness was

ubs. they cut from 22 to 10. >> right >> that's where you see a of us on top of the tradewinds i would say trade the stock. not the worst is over, but you are due for a bounce >> you're selling it >> i'm sorry trade it who said trade it or fade it. >> come on, tim! >> yeah! next stock is deere. pete najarian, trade it or fade it >> i traded it to guy adami. >> i banned trade so pete shall answer >> all right at this point in the game when i look at deere, actually, look at where it just came from. look at what the stock has done over the last period and call it the net last year and i don't think it's fallen back enough andy think you have to fade this stock because there's plenty of downside >> this was going to be, and he traded to me >> fade it

fade it! fade it! deteriorating, and last quarter was not particularly good and i think you'll see analysts cut numbers impeach i think this trade is 150 before it trades significantly. >> you know that you said major double top and i think it's due for a bounce, i would trade it >> wow >> i'm glad we have one because i'm a fader here, too. if you look at it with multiple times and this is not an indictment of the global economy and you can not like steel and deere in the same sentence, so i am fading john deere >> micron down 8%, grasso, trade it or fade it? >> i'm going to start off with trade it, but i'm looking at this and we're fast money traders and we have a very slim time horizon, so i lot of this is just overreactions. so i could feel that a lot of these are fades, but for this week, for the game, not the double trade game, but for the game i think that these are all buy, right

so trade this one. they really are correlated to dram pricing i don't know if the worst is over for dram, but the chart sure as heck doesn't look like it can go much further. >> i don't know if the worse is over either, but because of that the reason i'd fade it and at the start of the year it was their 28 and running up toward their 48 a share and it's had a great run and if there's any weakness to the downside i think there might be pressure and we heard today from intel so there's a lot going on on chip space you're still long intel. >> and you're at the pressen tagdz. i am. >> absolutely concerneded and that happened at the end of the day. >> what was that >> i'm in the fade camp -- >> oh, my god, weigh they didn't trade aly roey

picture and it traded from 42.5 and this is in the wake of tk tech instruments and this is in the way of intel i think micron can trade down to 35 bucksesly to me, they have some cyclical headwins why would i jump into it >> good game. >> when you play according to the rules, it's a good became. >> you don't trade it, you just say trade it alibaba is a company that's been the ument mat victim of a trade war and it's an asian trade story and i think if you look at the stock before a week and a half ago it was starting to break out on the concept that actually these guys have slowed down some of their spending and it trades at a multiple that puts it at a peg ratio of around one. of the mega-cap tech names in

the absence of a trade war. >> and it's got revenue growth i own calls on this one. i do not own the stock, but i own calls and i think we see a recovery out of banna because of what tim's saying and this is rely apartment on china itself, and i think that's been priced, is friday going to be worse or better >> better in what way? >> think we priced in a lot of positive news going to the trade war or a trade resolution and now we priced in a heck of a lot of negativity. >> what do you think we've seen so far we've priced in a hike of 10%. how we priced no new tariffs >> that's my baseline on it. i think you could get a little bit of headwind, but for me this week, i think that all of these stocks are trade its based on that premise >> let's get to our bonus round.

>>. >> you've done something well and who's going to get this one. >> they report earnings -- no >> no trade allowed! >> trade it! trade it >> and we've been pretty steadfast on this, and i was surprised it would trade below $100 without question and the sell-off is overdone and valuations are reasonable and it seems like things are straightening out on the gaming side in china, and i would say into earnings tomorrow although this terrifies me and the fact that we're going to 139 i say trade it >> the catalyst was the upside for the stock and it's been their idiosyncratic stuff and it's been a trade war and this is a macau trade for sure and even with lvs and other casinos they're more in lockstep and it trades probably 2.5 turns to las vegas sands. so on a relative value play.

i would rather own wynn. i would trade this one >> collectively, the best we've ever done. have you seen in your opinion. >> i got angry, combie, our next guest says investors are in store, worldwide and let's break in savita subramanian. welcome. >> the existing tariffs go up and no new expansion of tariffs and no new deal. >> just the continued impasse would be a negative for the market, and i mean, it's interesting because if you look at what's actually priced into the market so we looked at the multiples of the most exposed segments of the s&p 500 since last february when trump really started talking about this and every segment of the market that would be impacted by tariffs has

seen pretty significant compression except for one area which i think is my favorite short is small caps. small caps, everyone's hiding out in small caps because they're domestic and they're not going to see any friction from global trade issues, but the truth is smaller cap companieses are each more tekterred to global growth where one reaction >> in the event of more tarrives put into place, the market could suffer the 10% the risk is if we see the u.s. economy thrown into a recessionary territory that 10% can turn to 20% sorry very easily and the decline is on average about a 20% decline and that's the number we want to

tether our expectations to. >> no deal, a decline of 10% and on friday what are you expecting? >> so i think we either get a deal quickly or we see a protracted period of brinkmannship, and i think that is when weave sort of lived through for the last year and a half we kind of forgot about trade after the fourth quarter and everything was okay. i think what this spells is continued multiple overhang so the p-e of the sip hasn't contracted that much since the beginning of last month. we can see another turn in multiples, and i also think that the real risk for the economy is that corporations are probably stalling request plan, right if you look at capex, it turns pretty negative over the last six months, and part of that might be because we just don't know what's going to happen. the longer this takes the worst

it is from an chick. the market will actually like it and the sense that i got from the fed last week, and the fed doesn't like a fed that isn't rut uting rates. >> it must be most terrifying thing. >> if you listen to our economists they think that the fed's next move is a rate hike and not a cut and that's in the face of a better second half our house view is that we do see reconciliation on trade because if you think about it, china exports declined pretty significantly last year and they're feeling it have some kind of, you know of a stalemate where both sides are hurt and some rs losing and a friendlier resolution than what's priced into the market is to be expected and in that scenario we

think the economy can improvement in second half and we can see a rate hike i agree. a rate cut is not what we should want as equity investors >> savita, we shouldn't want that, but the market wants that so other toet everything else. we've been wrong or that the market wants the rid cut do you think trump is playing this where he says if i don't get the trade deal done i get the rate cut that's my backstop >> so the markets would throw a tantrum. >> you don't get your 10%. >> that's an interesting way to get what you want. yeah i mean, maybe. never say never. i think the real driver of the economy is less about tweets and it's more about corporations and the one encouraging signal is that this quarter and ever remember when we were calling for an earnings recession and they're grow at 2% year over year so things are still okay

and those levels where we really of the to panic and if we see a 10% correction in order for policymakers to start panicking and maybe that's how the year plays out, but that earnings growth took place in an environment where everybody believed there would be a deal now there are no points. >> a protracted ney gesh situation. that its. >> that's's good earnings. part of the reasons why they were a lower hurdle is some artist started penceling tariffs into 2019 earnings that haven't even been decided yet and there was upside risk for the first quarter. look, i think you're right this is a do or die situation and china, europe, u.s., these are the three players that will be most affected and three global leaders the earnings front, we're

expecting a bit of an acceleration next year from 3% to 7% next year, but in the event of a long, drawn out ugly trade battle where neither side agrees and in those situations we would definitely revise down our earnings expectations and you're right part of why things have been okay is that we haven't been panicking yet. >> savita, thank you >> bank of america, merrill lynch. >> i love everything she said. the most interesting of the many things was the fact that i agree. a fed rate cut and i hate using the word would be deleterious because i thought -- you know it's haiku to the market >> think if the fed were to raise rates and maybe the knee-jerk and maybe we're on more stable ground than we thought, and i think that would be bullish for the market. >> i just think the chinese have been interesting in the last 24

hours if not having a gun to their head and something some sense that maybe they're willing to make some concessions because i think any deal that they do, barring something that we clearly have not heard about is a great deal for china they are not going to let up on one belt, one road made in china twee2025 and i thk they're getting what they want. >> is the russell a short? >> well, obviously she thinks so i'm not so positive about that i understand -- it is intertwined. >> i was referencing it, but i do think it's interesting it's an interesting concept because it always wants to find out where do you hide. i want fundamentals on my side i feel much better about my selection. >> i'll ask grasso >> look at a name like mcdonald's and a name like match. these companies are not affected right now with trade and look at the stock charts these are constructive charts. >> disney and roku both reporting moments ago and we'll

hear what the ceos of these two companies at the forefront of the rush are telling wall street tech is soaring and the best performing sector of the bunch and one top technician is warning this is peak tech. he'll explain why and one of the traders calling it the greatest comeback of all time ge up 60% off its lows and can the former dow darling keep the momentum going we've got all of the details and we're live fm merotis square in new york city. much more "fast money" right after this your brain and improves memory. - dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the number-one-selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. - she outsmarts me every single time. - checkmate! you wanna play again? - anncr: prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

welcome back to "fast money. ge soaring 40% so far this year and larry said at the annual shareholders meeting today that after he called a quote, unquote good start things can slow down. >> cash flow going to be negative this year what we said in march is it's going to be break even to possibly awe negative $2 billion. it's still tough for me to say that out loud, but that is our reality. >>. >> he also said a callback on compensation for ceo jeff immelt could be in order if serious misconduct is found, but the pages was pretty high and the stock momentarily jumped higher on the comments and does this ge

rally still have legs? tim, you're a shareholder. >> i'm a shareholder this is the ultimate cleanup story and free cash flow is what i care most about even though i'll talk about some of the parts and when you look at the free cash flow people thought this would be minus 4.5 billion and it was significantly better than and i believe that larry culp is turning this ship a lot faster than people thought this they could and the fact that they've had asset divestitures are great, but it's more about the power business starting to stop being a drag. >> do you think it's priced in >> no. i think people are giving him the benefit of the doubt he's an outsider and he doesn't come along with all those legacy headwinds that all of the old guys that spent their career at ge did, and he's done a number of things already and you heard him talk he's believable and for him, he's just telling you like it is at this point. they had an amazing call and the stock traded down 80%. the stock bounced 80% off the

lows i think there is a tremendous amount of upside and i will continue to be a shareholder 20 in 2020. >> and he continues to press his bets, right? most recently, he dropped it down on a $5 price target from a $6 price target and in any case, he's not a believer and i'm not necessarily a believer either and cash flow is a concern to me and debt load is an incredible concern for me as well do i think that larry is doing a great job? i think he is and is it somewhat already priced in i think so some of that is definitely priced in. he said flat to 2 billion cash flow and you can drive a truck and he's got a huge upside to that where does that go if he comes in even slightly lower >> there is a reason why we see so many puts constantly being right. potentially, this could be very

interesting and i don't think we test the lows, but i think $8 is an area we can get >> quick, do we see five below 20 >> five or 20? >> i think seven before 20 >> five is a stretch, but i do think the 45% that is up this year is reflected in the fact that things have gotten less bad and it doesn't mean that things aren't still bad >> like that >> for more on general electric and what's next for the stock head over to trading nation.cnbc.com. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. >> the great thing about traveling is you appreciate coming home. >> that's right, but the travel stocks are getting crushed and there's a troubling trend that could mean more pain ahead for the group. plus, tech stocks are on the fast track this year >> you can do it just don't look down >> one top technician says we could be speeding right into peak tech. he'll explain why 'she so worried. much more "fast money" right after this

welcome back to "fast money. disney shares are higher after reporting earnings the conference call is under way. julia boorstin joins us with details. >> bob iger giving insight into how the media giant plans to level the box office success to drive adoption of its new streaming subscription business, disney plus. avengers endgame will stream exclusively on disney plus just a month after its launch take a listen. >> while the immediate results have been gratifying we're snot taking anything for granted and we continue to to leverage

across the company to deliver a strong proposition to consumers. we have tremendous excitement and optimism >> as they invest in content for this new streaming business, iger is stressing the importance of the unusual strategy of putting marvel's movie stars on shows like movies plus and they're in the process of pulling back from the likes of netflix. as for the parks division there was surprise on the top and bottom line. iger saying they're looking forward to the opening of the star wars galaxy edge and this quarter's number reflects pricing increases. we have been very strategic in our approach to pricing over the last number of years and it's really paying off. the results this quarter certainly are evidence of that and what we're trying to do is two things is the price according to demand and in managing demand, try to basically spread out attendance so that we can preserve or

improve the guest experience >> iger talking a little bit about disney's two-thirds ownership of hulu saying they're bullish on the service and confirming there has been dialogue with cnbc universal and c numbers's company about them possibly divesting their one-third stake and having an ongoing relationship about keeping that nothing universal programming at hulu. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin joining us from los angeles. you would think the setup for the stock was a tricky one getting a massive run. think about where the stock was when they announced there would be legal aed gambling and that was the lifeline for e is spn ay problem with disney and it is my favorite ride followed closely by mr. toad. >> i'll say this, it's a problem they have with disney is valuation. 21-time next year's number is just too expensive, in my

opinion. this quarter was fine, but it wasn't outstanding i think you have to sell the stock here. >> but you're okay with netflix's valuation? >> different company different company. >> at some point you have to see some convergence and i realize netflix and disney are in different places and here's our valuation dynamic and disney deserves a higher multiple and want because it's the cream of the crop and the sector and you might be valuing on the subscribers and if you start to look at 2021 which they talked about which the market's rewarded and you have to give them at least a blended multiple >> it never happens. somewhere in here people are starting to assess whether netflix is too high and disney is too low >> i like parks in there 25 billion in parks and that's huge when you look at lower royalties and lower licensing and spending a boat load of money to pay off in some year i think it was a positioning pop that you saw here and you'll see disney settle back in if it settles back in, see, i thought you were talking about

netflix. >> i thought that he was -- honestly what impresses me right now about disney is the direct consumer growth just continues and we talk about different parts always having to move, right? in the parks department they have pricing power and you have these four different businesses and the direct to consumer is what they're focused on and they're looking for growth and they've got growth there i think they're doing everything right. to the valuation point, i don't disagree with you and going forward if they continue to grow their earnings the way they have, then i think they can grow into their earnings and i think this run has been great, and i've been saying all for the last couple of weeks and the 170 price target that i've seen out there, that seems too high that seems way too high for me in terms of where they are rid n right now, no way. >> we need to bring in the man who wrote the book on disney literally, "new york times"

colu columnist. does it have to show that subscribers can come and that they can pull it off >> at some point they have to deliver and that point is some point in the future and what we're seeing here is a multiple expansion and getting the mail owe of the netflix phenomena bob iger to my view has done a brilliant job of changing the whole conversation from this being a legacy media company saddled with potential losses of espn to being a high-tech netflix kind of company and that, you know, investor said a couple of weeks ago talk about show me. that dazzled people. that got a big run on the stock after that i think at that point a lot of people became believers in the direct to consumer thing every surprise for me was positive that the cable networks were up, that they're stable and that espn is not collapsing and the losses in direct consumer were really modest they increased espn plus quite a

bit. it's still only 2 million and not a huge number and they're getting a nice cash cushion there and you know, the parks doing very well and i think a reflection of consumer confidence and then we know they've got the avengers cash coming down the pipeline so that didn't show up and they've got a lot of cash here to work with. >> they'll need a lot of cash, though, and to be in the likes of netflix, you have to be prepared for that money and especially for the disney shareholder base currently they're not used to those enormous tabs that disney will have to spend in order to compete on content >> think the big question is not just for disney, but for everybody heres is streaming model ever going really deliver the kind of profits that the legacy businesses did, and i think the jury is out on that. >> i think the theory is

amazon-like that some day you will get a world where there are very few players that dominate streaming and then they'll have pricing power and they can really start raising prices and all of the profit rolling in amazon is starting to make money, but it's been 20 or more years, and they're still trying to conquer the market and how long will this battle for the streaming market go on i think disney will be a survivor and some day will have some pricing power there, but it's going to be a long battle >> so one of the concerns for disney over the last couple of years is what's the succession plan >> is bob iger now, does he have to say now given everything that you just said? >> well, when i wrote it was eisner and eisner would pick a successor and you knew the end was near i don't want to say that bob iger is repeating the pattern and we've seen promising people come up and tom being the

most recent example and i'm sure he's grilling people now and i do think at some point he wants to step aside when he gets over some of these big challenges and he can go out now as a hero. a lot of people including the disney family have been criticizing his pay, and i will say i think bob iger has earned that pay lately. i mean, look at the stock price and a lot of that has been his ability to change the conversation and to inflate that multiple, and i give him a huge amounts of credit for that if i was bob iger i don't want to stay forever and i don't want to stay if things gl bad so he can leave now as a hero. >> james, does disney get too much credit for being a content machine? and tom rogers was on our show a bunch of times and knows a lot about the story to point out that abc and disney channel are in shambles. they crank out new movies and they make great content across the board. >> they're not going to hit it out of the park with every single thing

they've been very strategic where they've put their big investments and the franchise products and i think avengers and people say the marvel karics and they've put it together in a uniquely create of way and that got kafry and got carey and they're they've had kofrn cystently a very, very high level and i would like to see them take, frapgly, more chances and some people say dumbo wasn't so great and it was a remake >> i loved it. i thought michael keaton was fantastic. >> it's great for hollywood. these studios have to have misses to have great hits. >> right >> it's like oil drilling and you're not going to hit a gusher with every one and they need to take risks. >> i would like to see disney take a few risks they've got the money to do it >> james stewart of the new york times. grasso >> the only direct streaming play that we have here is

netflix. it's up 36% year to date so disney's up 23%. is that an unbelievable run. how do you play all of it? roku, up 7%, 8%. it will stand to benefit from all of these you almost have to miss the first 5% to break through resistance before you put new money to work in roku. >> still ahead, tech stocks taking on the trade and the group may have reached his peak and he'll tell us which part of tech can get hit the hardest and plus this retail stock has doubled and it is sinking after hours and 'lte ywel llou what it is and why investors are litting the panic button more fast money after this incomparable design makes it beautiful.

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welcome back to fast money let's get to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. hey, bob. >> hello, melissa. the markets haveec woen up to two facts. first, the odds of a tariff increase are much higher than the market expected and secondly, stocks are dramatically overvalued if this happens and sentiment is positive around four factors, first the fed pivot, and second,a i trade deal getting done and third, china's stimulus program and that is creating the perception for the moment that china's economy is bottoming and finally, a strong u.s. economy no trade deal with higher tariffs will force investors go to lower global gdp estimates and that will force them to

lower global earnings growth and force them to lower the earnings multiple associated with higher growth that's a problem lower global growth drops the value of all companies and you don't need to have revenue exposure and have import products from china to get hurt in this gain a lower multiple is a big problem and it will assign the higher multiple and the global growth and earnings situation is expanding and it will sign's lower multiple if growth and earnings are contracting up until a few days ago. the s&p was trading at a 17 and above multiple and that is well above the historic average of 15 to 16 on hopes the economy was stabilizing. if there's no trade deal and higher tariffs on a broad array of products, global growth will clearly be lower and the markets will sign a lower multiple, but how much still isn't clear, if the s&p gets assigned a more reasonable multiple, say 15 and a half and the s&p can very quickly drop to the 2600 range

and that is with no reductions in earnings estimates and it's a different game remember december when fears of a global meltdown dropped the s&p 500 multiple to 14.5 the s&p dropped all of the way to 23.50 because analysts were not only dropping the multiple they were cutting estimates at the same time and there's more risk to the down side than there is to the upside right now back to you, melissa. >> all right, bob, thanks. bob pisani at the nyse tech getting hit hard by worries this week and it is one of the worst performing sectors and it comes after a big run for the tech-heavy hitters like apple, microsoft and cisco and our next guest says the group may have hit its peak and let's go off the chart with mark newton of newton advisers. what are you looking at? >> i want to look at technology and it is utsch 24% yet in the last two weeks we've lost 2% and it's interesting when you look at things like the equal waited

technology etf by invesco and i plot this over the s&p to get a look at how technology is as a group. we've broken this entire uptrend since december and that's a concern that this stage in the rally suggesting that tech is starting to show signs of withering and then it's going to really be important to be more selective in the sector. you see stocks like google and this peaked at the latter part of april and a couple of things to note and you have the potential formation of lead and shoulders form eggs and earlier you have to get down under 980 and you see big stocks like google starting to show increasing signs of peaking out and you moved down under 1250 in the last couple of weeks and that broke and i think it will have a tough road getting the momentum pressure starting to definitely lead lower in key stocks like alphabet, google the third is semiconductors and the huge leading sector. what's this telling us similar to what happened in technology, this has shown

evidence of peaking out. smh getting down under prior lows and this puts pressure semiconductors and my thinking is we'll need to get back up over this and it doesn't mean it can't happen, but near-term the sector is under a tremendous amount of pressure and that means that potentially one might want to take a look at areas like financials, health care and a definite rotation out of tech and after being up 4% in literally four months it makes sense to consider potentially shifting out of this sector. >> when you say financials, mark, i'm curious because it seemed like they had lift in the beginning of the year and petered out in terms of that momentum so which sub sectors of financials are you looking at there? >> we saw breakouts in stocks like bank of america and citigroup in the last couple of weeks and with yields having turned down there has been downward pressure with the yield curve and that has affected the group over the last week and we've seen a decent amount of health care that makes me think

it's a sector to consider in the weeks and month ahead. near-term, the s&p has been down three out of the last four days and my thinking is maximum down side for s&p has been around 27.75 and 2800 that should be the chance to get in thinking the markets can push higher and we need to see groups like technology participate and that's not happening and we're seeing movement out of tech at 20% of the s&p that would be a big deal mark, thank you. >> what do you think of this idea of peak technology. we've seen rotation in this thing and as people have gotten more and more concerned about the trade wars thing and you're seeing a rotation out of the technology names i think, quite honestly, we get anec tensi extension and if it't something the market completely overreacts to, and absolutely we'll see the tech names fall much faster than the other names right now because they're so

tethered to the china market >> i'm sorry go ahead go >> ui was talking about the multiple and people keep talking about stocks have a contracting multiple we're not in a fed cycle in fact, equity multiples should be trading at 17, 18, 19 in an environment where people are concerned about the global growth story so i would not be freaked out by an s&p that would do 170 and be at 17 times. you get peak tech and peak markets and watch the 2858 level on the s&p cash and that's your 50 day and we haven't been below it in mid-january. if tech peters out the market peters out >> check out this retail stock has more than doubled in the last year, but it is sinking right now. we will break it down plus trip adviser turning into a travel nightmare after the company's earnings report and it could spell outrble for another stock reporting this week. the details when "fast money" returns. really?

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on etsy >> seema modi is in the newsroom. >> growth of 40% and revenue wasn't enough to satisfy investors. etsy shares are down in after hours more than 6% one concerning comment made by etsy's cfo rachel glazer who said during the first quarter of 2019 we temporarily paused our marketing investments in order to closely test the less mature channels and we have the attribution models in the past analysts have said that in order to gain market

share etsy needs to get its products in front of more users. the timing is also notable and it comes as competition has ramped up and etsy bringing on more vendors and instagram attracting more shoppers with the in-app checkout and the losses still up 34% this year. melissa? >> seema modi back in the newsroom guy adami. >> you have a sock puppet? >> i often shop at the etsy. the one down the street on sixth avenue i'll say this. the quarter was fine user growth and active buyers are up and active sellers are there, and the problem is valuation and apparently they care now i think they're running in the competition and the market cares about valuation and i think there's more room to the downside despite the fact it's lower on the after market. >> the stock has been on a heroic run and it's up 25% over

the last year and the valuation is difficult, but they are giving you 30 to 33% top line growth and the margins have been accretive. this is not a stock that i would want to own here, but i understand where people are chasing growth and multiple indiscriminate and here we go. >> does that something about where we are in this market facing growth? >> everyone said it was abindividual and amazon couldn't compete with it and that's coming to an end >> that's the problem. i think people are looking at this now saying okay, we've allowed etsy to get to this level and they are growing at a great rate, but let's start looking at the valuation and when they start looking at that i think they get concerned especially in the backdrop of the market that we're in rid now and that adds to why we're seeing the selling today >> talk about a bad trip travel stocks getting hit on the back of trip adviser earnings. e adontrer thought the pain could continue more "fast money" right after this oh, don't worry.

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>> welcome back to "fast money." take a look at trip adviser getting crushed on its worst day after a big earnings miss. the company sees non-hotel revenue growth slowing in the future the move taking rivals booking holdings and expedia down with it and options traders are expecting more pain when one of those stocks reports tomorrow and mike ko is in san francisco with the action. >> hi there, so booking holdings has moved 7% off earnings over the last eight quarters on average and that includes a decline of about 11% when they reported last quarter and the

options markets implying a slightly smaller move of 6% when they report tomorrow and the flow was fairly bearish and one of the trades we noted was the purchase of the 16, 1635 put spread and about 2 hun of those and ultimately 400 of them traded for $5.80 the buy of the put spread will break even down 5% and makes their highest profits down 7%. so it looks like they would get a 3 to 1 payoff if the move was to the down side and i think this makes a decent way to make a bearish bet and the valuation on booking holdings is trading right now near historical lows as you take a look over the past decade or so >> thanks for that, mike mike ko in san francisco what do you think of the space >> it's at roughly 15.5 times and the near trough valuation for a company that i think is largely executing. if you think of their guide in the first quarter and they guided about 8% growth and fx

neutral 7% and they have a better mix than possibly expedia especially when you consider they have less exposure i would say to europe. i like bookings here and i think the stock is a steady performary even if it's not exciting. >> are you going to go cruise lines? no i'm going to go marriott marriott came out with a news headline april 29th and they're going to rent out homes. so not only hotels and you'll be able to pay with points. so either vacation club international or marriott international. both of them have performed well and i go m-a-r. >> holmes. >> no, they are renting out homes. >> options action at 5:30 p.m. eastern time final trade up next. n? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that.

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final trade time, pete >> keep an eye on the airlines go with delta. giddy up. >> u.s. steel so i stayed line iron ore prices are pushing steel prices higher again. >> grasso? >> mcdonald's, they couldn't beat this one up it was in the low 190s and this thing is going

to 210 buy mcdonald's. >> a fun show tonight. a little tom foolery, but good information and i'm setting myself up for a huge fall, but wynn resorts ended their earnings release post close. >> that does it for us see you pack here tomorrow at 5:00 for my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome into "mad money. welcome to cramerica do you want to make friends? i'm trying to make money my job is not just to entertain, but to teach, call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer your probably wondering why i'm wearing these noise-canceling headphones we had a stron