>> what is the catalyst? the downgrade snap of a finger is unlikely, who knows, buybacks >> there's not a great single identifying catalyst what happens is the market gets oversold and we look at bond yields and say maybe on a relative basis, a lot of pain has been in the stock. >> maybe in a tweet. >> maybe that's it for us "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" starts now from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square we start off with the major sell-off on wall street. the dow down more than 700 points at the lows of the day. dow and s&p 500 having their worst day since january 3rd and nasdaq getting hit the worst, down 3%. its worst day of the year. this as the trade war between the u.s. and china seems to be hitting a fever pitch. eamon jabbers has more on that what's the late sneft. >> the president talked to reporters in the oval office seeking to project confidence,

even as we saw the market turmoil on wall street, the president suggesting he likes the position the united states is in with this trade battle with the chinese, saying ultimately the united states can put more tariffs on china than china can put on the united states he also floated a proposal which he talked a little bit last week to protest american farmers by taking some of that tax money 2in effect, tariff coming from importers, and redistributing it to the farmers. >> that of a billion dollars we are taking in, a small portion will be going to our farmers because china will be retaliating probably to a certain extent against our farmers. we will take the highest year, big of the purchase china has ever made with our farmers, about $15 billion, and do something reciprocal to our farmers so our farmers can do well. >> so the president there suggesting he would like to have some economic and perhaps political protection for farmers

ahead of that 2020 election cycle in which the rural areas are expected to be some of the key battle grounds for the president in terms of maintaining his political base that is something to watch the white house not offering any details on exactly what the president has in mind here, simply referring folks to the department of agriculture, which hasn't responded to our questions yet. so that's one question where does this go in terms of protecting farmers here in the united states? the other question is what other action could the chinese take? the treasury secretary today expressing some confidence that the chinese will not stop buying american treasuries. there's the possibility, of course, that they could seek to interfere in the treasury market or seek to stop participating i the treasury market. other possibilities include making it more difficult for american businesses to get licenses in china and a host of other ways to slow down american companies that are going business in china. no indication that the chinese are doing any of that yet. but as the u.s. side says, when the chinese run out of the ability to put new tariffs in

place, they may start looking for some of the other venues with which to continue to wage a trade war. melissa? >> right now eamon in terms of when the new tariffs go in effect, whether the u.s. or chinese side, both sides are allowing for some buffer time for talks to actually move forward. if you wanted to look at the glass half dpufull, you could lk at it that way. >> absolutely. it's clear they put an exemption in friday for that reason. that was the goods in transit exemption that allowed anything on a boat -- or i guess airplane, although that's a shorter trip -- anything on a boat coming to the united states would not face the tariffs that means there's about 20 days of wig many room before price is impacted open the u.s. side. that gives a little extra time for negotiating. the president said he will sit down with is sh-tseng ping and vladimir putin at the end of june we do see another face-to-face set piece between the leaders in

over a month's time. >> you said those talks could be fruitful, eamon, thank you allen javers at the white house. the s&p 5% off highs and dow and nasdaq 6% off high, back in correction territory, down more than 12% is the trade war really to blame for all of the selling, or was the market primed for this pullback >> i would say the latter. i think the market was primed for this pullback. with that said i think it was primed the last 2 1/2, three weeks. but here we are now. a couple things, the technicians and carter practice worth is a tremendous one you have a huge potential for double top in the s&p. in other words traded up there in september 29.40, traded all the way back down in december, we basically went right back and failed for technicians, that's a very bearish signal i think it's room to the downside i think the vix at 21 is still too cheap. if we do the math from december 24th low to recent high, a 50% correction, which is normal,

gets you to about 2650 on the s&p, which about 5 1/2% to the downside. >> this was an excuse to sell? >> i believe --ly say this again, i don't think the chinese are at all incentivized to do a deal with us i think we're getting strung out and will continue to get strung out the refrt of the summer. if it forces us to make a deal, and i think dan would agree with us, i don't think it's advantageous for us if it's done to save the stock market. >> markets were clearly overbought coming in here. you talked about the volatility index, without getting too wonky on volatility, what we do talk about on certain days is when the vix is responding or not responding seeing the vix at 21, when you look at most of the indices at oversold levels we have not seen since the 24th and measures how oversold we were or we are look at the triple qs. the nasdaq, essentially lowest nine-day rsi, 23 since the 24th of december. can you pick every major index

thenyou can also look at the wan, if want to look at the chinese currency, we're in six pips, currency speak, essentially the same as bips, all-time lows against the dollar that was set a couple times in the last year. look at yields, you had a market that i think -- this is what's interesting. bears can say look, we told you this was coming, except people were not talking about the trade war as a catalyst. they were talking about irnineas and the economy. now you have a bunch of ceos out there with no need to do a cap x. >> i think we had a complacent market and were grinding up and investors discounting the potential for all of this stuff to come together, this sort of thing we were talking about. there was a lot of faith a deal would happen because there was a lot of lip service for it. the fact it hasn't happened, i agree with guy, if we were to get a deal to save the stock market before the g20 in late

june, it's not going to be the sort of deal i think the president will feel great about on the campaign trail in 2020. so it's the sosht of deal that might get sold, meaning the market participant might sell it here's another thing, there's so much time spent, and i heard jim cramer this morning saying the president and his people are looking at the dow jones industrial average, they're focused on it and the stock market, i think if you're looking at who's winning or losing the trade war -- and it is a trade war now, make no mistake about it -- if you're looking at it through the lens of the stock market, you're doing it wrong apple loss $50 million today in market cap that was equivalent to what the shanghai lost last night, down 1% if you're just doing simple math if that's the way you're looking at it, we have much greater potential to suffer in stock market terms i just don't think that is the lens you should be looking through. >> is it time to trade or sell. i think a little bit of both

we had one transitory word that had people nervous about the fed. i still think the fed is absolutely gone. that we will not see anything but something dovish from them i think it is trade. the other thing is for me, i like earnings, i like fundamentals we are 90% of the way through earnings season. so unfortunately, i like having earnings we don't have that anymore something tangible to see how companies are doing and so now we just are sort of floating k around waiting for a big mac w row -- macro event clearly this is a giant one. >> intel guided down and specifically mentioned china what did they do last week when they had an analyst meeting in san francisco? dialed it down again i'm nervous you will see preannouncements as we get into -- oot soat some point we cisco wednesday night. don't think they're guidance will be the most important thing that comes out this week. >> and we have retail earnings that should be an interesting

tell on how companies are feeling tariffs. if there's anything that will feel tariffs, it's definitely going to be retailers. how much inventory could they have pulled forward to avoid the tariffs. >> how much could they pull forward? how much could they have begun to source elsewhere? that's been in the works for a while. i look at target, i own target china is actually target's biggest source that's going to be a problem they also have to try to gage how much can we pass through can we pass through all? when do we start passing through? that will be a little bit difficult, however the valuations of retail stocks have come in a lot and i think consumers are in pretty good shape. the consumer employed, right those earnings, it's a lower bar now. >> i think sentiment for the market, dan touched on this, i would just say a little differently, at this point we're still dealing with the trade war. the markets reaction, when i hear let's reimburse farmers based on some metric, let's get john cougar mellencamp and do farm aid again too we're getting into a place where we negotiated off of a basis

that, look, everything we're trying to do with the chinese makes a lot of sense tariffs make no sense. you're getting into a place where you're dug into a negotiation stance that will get worse and worse. we talk about it all the time on the show, can the chinese wait this out if you read the press, they're waiting for $300 billion to hit so they could have a case can -- be peter wrote about this this morning, we listen a lot, they had the first pivot where they could say that's fine, at this point let's go with the stalemate because this is where we wanted to be and we can out-wait them. >> this is what want to know and people at home want to know at this point, if we all think this is going to be a prolonged trade war, prolonged negotiation, do you dare invest in stocks like a boeing, a caterpillar, an apple? any of these poster children of the trade war. the one that would get hit the most. >> the answer is yes, you just have to pick your spots. if you're asking me should you

be worried, to a certain extent yes because the rhetoric is driven up and neither side wants to back down which is fine. worried is one thing, panicked is another i will say this, you will know that a bottom for the short term is in and you will see it, because we've seen it before, on a day the market flushes to the downside, has a bit of recovery in the volatility index tim spoke about, which is should be up is actually down. if you see a day where the market plummets, comes back and lawyer volatility index, that's the day in the short-term release put in the buy. >> two names you talked about, i always thought apple would be the last battle fought in this trade war, meaning because it's so important to both sides they employ a million people to put together our iphones and obviously our macs and that sort of thing it's important to the chien eesz a and very important to us, one of the largest mark caps in the world. and the other one is boeing. it shockingly was starting to be talked about in early 2018 and then kind of went by the wayside

and kept going up every other day until necessity had their issues but it was very interesting the paper specifically cited boeing. that's one they know they can delay major purchases. with apple, it's a little different. if you were loving apple at 200 just a few weeks ago and think most of the china stuff they started the year out have been allayed, you're probably hitting equilibrium somewhere in the 175 area. >> two things that are interesting about boeing and apple are these unintended consequences boeing's safety issues really, they didn't need them in the context of everyone pushing boeing around anyway with the trade war stock. and china is absolutely competing with airbus and boeing guess who else the chinese are kpieting with? they're competing with apple guess what else is going on? huawei we have major issues with this country based upon how we're looking to extradite the daughter of steve jobs equivalent think about all of this. these are not part of the trade

war plot but now they're even thrown on top of that. >> we have full team coverage of the chaotic market day carter worth is ready to break it down. we have tony dwyer waiting in the wings. let's get first to carter and the charts carter >> a lot of things to look at, of course. lots going on. first, when things are in chaos, correlations often go to one, to make the point not only today but the past year, look at the relationship between the nasdaq and s&p 500. in fact, it's a correlation of about 95%. what we know is one has more data so the nasdaq overshoots, the nasdaq undershoots, and overshoots but the trajectory is the same straight down and straight up. and guy is talking about the prospect of an important double top, back to a difficult level let's look at a few things gapping, it's very rare to gap, meaning an index has so much news overnight, a tweet or war

or it could be anything, swine flu, gaps down and up. there have been a total of 79 times in the past year it gapped up or gapped down. let's look at the levels it's a good reference point. march 12th gap is still in play at 27.84 march is heth, 2744 and now february 12th, 2718. from the peak of 2954 to we're going to fill that final gap, we would have sell-off of about 8%. we know we're down to five now really shows that's not a whole lot. that would just be the beginning and then we will get to the levels guy said. in any event, here are those levels what we know is the odds -- again, there were lines all along through here, all of these gaps, they've all been filled. these are the only three unremaining gaps that are filled

and by all accounts think think we will swing down and catch those. look on the nasdaq, three unfilled gaps again. the betting is we will come down and swing and catch those and ultimately that would be a decline of minimum 8%. i think that's important now apple, what do we know about apple? it peaked the same time the margaret peaked in september it market the same time the market bottomed, christmas but what it could not do, it could never make it back to its high also dropped 40% before the peak, twice as much as the market of the not only could it not make it back to its high, it's fairly textbook break in trend. gap, speaking of gap, you see apple is a place i would not want to be. >> carter, thank you forbe t the charts as i mentioned, tony dwyer is with us as well. market insanity is an opportunity. hard one to put in place for the dow jones 700. >> the popular definition of insanity is doing the same thing

over and over again and expecting a different result that's not insanity, that has hope in it doing the same thing over and over again knowing the exact result you're going to get and doing it anyway. trying to predict what the market is going to do off unpredictability with tweets and trade is insane. like you had a bounceback that was extraordinary on friday. now we had a tank that was extraordinary today. it just makes no sense to me i think karen really hit it with the fed comment about transitory inflation. i think the fed -- that was almost like a reversal of the dovish pivot where even though the two year and five year, the fed has never been right once in predicting a recession the two and five-year treasury yield is below the fed fund's range. that's screaming at the fed that they need to cut rates regardless of what donald trump is saying, president trump is saying, it doesn't matter to me. i go with data and the data in the treasury market is telling you they need

to cut rates that's been our call as you know since january. this correction, last time i was on the show we talked about 3% to 5% correction i'm not going to be the guy who tells the people on air i expect a 3% to 5% correction and then you get 5 and now it's 7 to 10 what's the difference between 5% and 15% is interest rates. last september is 15% to 20%, the fed was raising rates and you were 3% on the ten-year. earlier in march we had a minor correction and today rates are going down and fed is likely to have an even further dovish pivot. >> i understand you don't want to predict what's going to happen in the trade war, because that's a losing game for everybody, but when it comes to trying to gain out the risks in the market, do you say that now today versus last week the risk seems higher >> for sure. >> a week ago, so therefore -- >> i think that's an excuse for

the market. >> that's an excuse for the market therefore the market volatility will continue throughout this period or there's more risk to the downside here? >> no, i think if you look at the ten-day rate of change on the vix, you've already seen an extraordinary move the ten-day rate of change on the vix is up close over 60 today. when you get that high, it doesn't spike again. if it does, it's very, very temporary. so i think a lot of the fear is kind of in the tape on this move because of the direction of interest rates but let me also throw this one by you, offsetting to some degree, i wish i had the intelligence to know what the trade situation was. i don't have the intelligence or resources -- >> intelligence is what gets you there. >> i will tell you what i do know, a lot of people are refinancing debt because you have the 100 points basis drop in interest rates. i know a lot of millenniums that can buy the starter house and majority activity is picking up pretty big because rates have

come down. there's an offset to the trade war but -- >> that's a good thing but there's also probably concern, particularly among small caps, that even though rates are low, they've got a lot of debt and there is concern that a slowing economy will impair their ability to pay the leverage that they already have. >> think of the governor on an engine the governor on an engine, it gives it extra power or less carr where i'm from, kanellous -- >> federal, brother. >> i was close bottom line you can turn down an engine by changing the amount of fuel that's going into it. it's the governor of an engine the amount of debt is not good you cannot fix debt with exponentially more debt. it's the governor or the engine. you go up to 3%, it slows it down down to 2%, it picks it up

we're in a weirdo zone of economic activity because of the amount of debt every time we get to 2 1/2, it's going to tank and every time we get to 3% it's going to rip. you look for a correction when everybody is on the wrong side of the boat. they were april 30th now everybody's getting on the right side of the boat. >> tony dwyer, thank you what do you think of tony's ideas. >> >> with the movers in the back, i didn't have that but i know people who did. if you listen to tony, he's been spot on. i'm not going to disagree with him here but i will say this, we talk about the unintended consequences of these tariffs or costs of goods in this country at some point will go up which means inflation almost by definition should go up. if the feds mandate inflation with something they have been saying for a long time, they think they're in a bad position now, think about three months if this thing continues to drone on and price of goods go up and inflation ticks higher, then what will they do? they painted themselves into an

extraordinarily difficult corner i think the trade pain is still lower. coming up -- we will have more and the traders will tell you where they're finding the best opportunities and uber getting crushed, down nearly 20% from its ipo price. what went wrong and how bad can it get for theto sck we're live in times square, new york city. much more on "fast money."

welcome back to "fast money. uber crashing on the second day of trade, down a whopping 18% from its ipo price leslie has more on the tech unicorn's rough start, like a tech donkey though. >> tech donkey, that's a good term for it. uber shaved $2 million off its cap in the first two days of trading, half the $120 billion level it had been projected to go public at the level is also what many of the executives need to obtain in order to receive their full compensation benefits. so what went wrong here? for one, the stock was mispriced relative to what the expectations were. even though bankers tempered the valuations for months leading up to the deal, the $45 per share value was still far higher than many investors were willing to pay. that's especially through against a turbulent market backdrop and continue trouble for its ride sharing rifle lyft.

when things did turn south for the stock, the leading underwriter morgan stanley was not able to adequately stabilize it the volumes were extremely high in the first two days, which could limit stabilizing even if they attempted it at all i'm told uber allocated 15% to retail investors, slightly higher than other retail tech deals. they tried to underwrite them as much as possible as they tend to be more fickle into the constitutional counterparts and sell in decline. usually if they agree to higher allocation, it signals less demand from institutions so the question now becomes whether uber's ipo scuttles other deals in the pipeline or whether the unicorns in the wings are taking notes not to repeat some of the recent mistakes, melissa. >> leslie picker, thank you. it seems like there's a tale of haves and have nots when it comes to ipos recently there's the like of the zooms and the lyfts, beyond meat

>> and size is what we're getting at this was such a massive deal i know uber's ceo sent a letter to employees and he mentioned something, you have to remember, look how facebook did when it came down in 2012. one of the things i think is interesting, a lot of people are comparing this to facebook but when facebook went public in 2012, it was profitable on the gap basis, it was gray itself 55% year over year and guided to accelerate when you think about uber, they will be alosing $3 billion to $4 billion for three years, revenue growth is decelerating it's real dlifrly different i don't think that's a comparison obviously facebook has done very well and people got that wrong back then. >> i agree, those metrics are totally different. in addition you didn't have facebook lite coming out three weeks before facebook and offering the exact same thing. i don't see those as similar

uber, i don't see see why you buy it here even, right? just because it happens to be down a lot doesn't mean the metrics are good here. it went from widely valued to undervalued. i still don't get it as david likes to say, trade it silly, trade three times silly, they're trying to price it three times silly, it can come into one time's silly i don't see a need to chase it could it rally up a little dead cat bounce? sure but i don't think there's a good value here. >> is this the underwriter's fault? morgan stanley's fault >> you can look at alibaba, who also did not do well out of the gates and hyped mott moon. dan pointed out the size, the biggest thing. i will go back to who needed to own uber who didn't already own it everybody was trying to sell uber every major institution that owned uber for years meanwhile you build a book

saying we're kicking out hedge funds, trying to go with the big institutional base bottom line is they didn't have that and i think that's critical. >> for more on what the uber's ceo is saying about the rocky ipo, head over to nbr.com. > cnbc.com. coming up -- a number of stocks traders are buying now and we will tell you the names you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide much more after this quick break. in these turbulent times, do you focus on today's headwinds? or plan for tomorrow? at kpmg, we believe success requires both. with our broad range of services and industry expertise, kpmg can help you anticipate tomorrow and deliver today. kpmg

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excuse me, where is gate 87? you should be mad at non-seasoned travelers. and they took my toothpaste away. and you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks. how dare you, he's my emotional support snake. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, whose tech helps you understand the risk and reward potential on an options trade it's a paste. it's not liquid or a gel. and even explore what-if scenarios. where's gate 87? don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. welcome back to "fast money. we've got breaking news on the trade deal let's head back to eamon javers in washington for the details. >> a new filing from the u.s. trade representative's office in the past 15 minutes. this filing setting forward the process now for a potential round of new tariffs on that additional $300 plus billion in chinese goods. the president has said as recently as today he's not sure if he's going to move forward with this or not but the new

filing from the usdr in the past couple of minutes ticks forward the process that will allow him to impose those tariffs if he so chooses. what they are saying is they will hold a public hearing on june 17th on the next round of tariffs and then say they're post hearing rebuttal comments will be due june 24th. that means that the next round of tariffs until the president decides to go forward can't happen before june 24th. so that gives you a sense of the timing here pushing it back into late next month before the president could impose the next round of tariffs again, he said today he hasn't made that decision yet this is just the usdr tick ig forward the process that will allow him to do it if he wants to. >> so the 24th is the earliest date on which new tariffs can be put in place that's nice leverage going to the g20 meeting for president trump. >> you noticed the timing, it's june 28th, i believe off the top of my head that gives him a couple days to come out with an announcement saying we're not going forward with the tariffs and talks are going really well.

or we will not go forward with the tariffs as we wait and see what happens it gives him a lot of flexibility. we will see if he decides to stay anything between now and then this is a fast-moving ball. >> eamon, thank you. >> the dow is sinking more than 700 below the session, down more than 1,000 points in the past week so even though things can get worse before they get better, what can you buy now i know we ask that a lot but i think people at home are wondering what kind of levels are you looking at what are you throg buy where do you see value in the market, karen? >> a terrible few weeks, much self-inflicted and the rest macros but i still think that's an extraordinary business and people are disappointed with the revenue growth but revenue is still extraordinary. if you were to back out the cash, which every time i say do something with your cash pile, it's ridiculous. i think it's gorge at a very reasonable price p. google.

>> talking about united health for a long time. look at the stock today, every opportunity to get bludgeoned and down about half a percent. basically went from 218 to 240 i think the bull's-eye on the back of these stocks will be off forbe quite some time. i think the cream will rise to the top. if you're looking for an opportunity, unh is as good as it gets. >> i have a simple way to do this, i don't want to be too early. i avoid a google who i say is a self-inflicted thing that may take a quarter to work itself out. look at two names with stellar numbers and gaps, microsoft and disney i look to the breakout levels they just were for microsoft 115 and disney 120. if you get weakness in the week or two or whatever, that's where i wasn't to go into those. apple has a level down at 170. you want to catch some of these breakout sets where they should have prior support >> i would go to apple, and i would say because they're such an obvious trade war victim here, it's one of the reasons why you have to assume people

shop before asking the proper questions. what we know about apple is they will capital wise support you as a shareholder. no turning back from that. i think service revenue is meaningful it doesn't need to be but on a blended multiple at this point apple, i did like it two weeks ago. i like it more now, even though i don't like these headlines at&t, you get into a domestic story. not worried about a trade war victim a story that -- don't think it will be an avalanche of debt and finally 7% dividend yield at a time rates are going lower not the reason to buy it but interesting. >> carter works said there's a number of high-paying stocks that could make for perfect payoff trades. carter is back to tell us what they are what are you looking at? >> sure, monday's report is about low paying stocks, typically .6, with high-dividend

yields i singled out two that i think are quite good and an etf. think about the circumstance that is the general equity market we know we have the top and bottom and we have this plunge we know we had the reciprocal recovery but what we also know is that the the s&p after getting back to this prior level has backed away that is not the factor, of course, looking at all things momentum but relative strength is number one. a stock that can hold sideways like this and unchange in a period where equities are being murdered, that's very, very impressive costco is one reacting well to its high i think ultimately even if equities get worse, it will hold up better than most or if equities bounce, it will indeed breakout consider that picture and notice the next, it's identical this happens to be salt and pepper, right, oregano mccormick and company. and also costco is a grocery

store. in the same circumstances, a peak with the of market, bottom with the market christmas eve. and then unlike the market, the market, of course, backs away. and this stock didn't do that. this stock holds tough at the high impressive strength. this is another one you want to be in. now the whole group is an obvious one. no real insight here but the principles are the same, utilities peaked in september. have they come down? no utilities have held their ground they were up today that's impressive. all of these would suggest generally if you hold they will get better or in turn break out. and to put it in context, you want to know what the s&p did, it has its high, it has its low and it gets right back to the former high but instead of holding, the s&p has broken. those are three utilities, costco, mccormick did not break. that's a very important day-to-day point. >> carter, come on over.

>> sure. >> evan will bring the chair over as he does. >> look how graceful evan is >> very talented page on our hands. thank you, evan. is anybody buying of what carter is selling here >> quickly costco, april cuts 5 1/2% -- the stream was looking for 4 and a half percent costco is firing on all cylinders and it's interesting carter mentions it look at the charge double top, we have been at this 245 level for quite some time. that's a good sign good for cbw for pointing that out. >> that was the hope not that i would point it out but if year going to be in a stock, if it hangs in well, it's like noanything, athlete, any endeavor, if it stays firm, it's an important tell. >> in retail, the opposite is true we were talking about xrt and how bad it's acting.

you picked a standout in costco but the fact they gave up, down 20% from a 52-weak high, do you want to press those names? >> sure. those are blizs that won't be around like urban outfitter or gnc or fosl. these are businesses that we ultimately see just kwloez up. but costco sits well and groceries are seen on the chart. >> i want to ask you about some of the other sko called so-called safety trades breaking out today. gold 1400 from the first time since april 11th ten-year yield lowest since march 28th do any of these charts look good to you >> think about that message, you can throw bitcoin in there who knows where it is, but it's acting well. gold is acting well. the fact we did hit 239, what about this is constructive and then there's this, if you consider where we are relative to september, we're below where they were in september so that's

almost ten months with no progress but with a lot of volatility in fact, we're below where we were on january 26th, 2018, the peak for global equities and what does that say about the reason we're here? load the boat? i think we're going 2% into the ten-year and momentum can fill those gaps. >> carter, thank you we will have much more, the dow closing down 600 points. cnbc's jim cramer will be here to tell us when we can relief from the selling and alibaba seeking nearly 10% this month as the stock is front and center in the trade war. some traders are betting it could see an even bigger move this week. we will explain.

welcome back to "fast money. take a look at alibaba getting hammered in today's sell-off front and center among trade war tensions as it gears up for war on wednesday dan is here with the action. >> wednesday is the opening and action is implying 5% move in either direction that is basically risk rich to 4% on average move the stock moved over the last four quarters. it's interesting when you see stocks down as much as they were, three time out of puts, but interestingly it looked like there was a lot of closing selling of calls in may and june most accurate strikes were may 180 and june 190 those were possibly people set up for some kind of china trade deal in this period, owning call

and call spreads and closing out with the stock now below those levels and earnings coming up. the stock traded pretty well, up 30% from its 52-week lows in december when you look at that though it's right there on some pretty key support, the one-year chart. pretty big air pocket back to the january lows if you look at it on a five-year basis, that just kind of heightens what we would say is that massive, massive support at the double bottom from late last year, but they better put up some good numbers to keep it there. >> is this really a trade war stock? >> i don't think so. >> domestic chien snees. >> domestic chinese. what we want to hear on these numbers are t-maland guidance get in 2020 and they l give you north of 30% guidance. i think it's certainly attractive to own this karen talked about google risk rewards at the price i think baba at this trade ratio is very attractive. >> for more options action,

check out the full show friday at 5:30 eastern time the dow and s&p foualling 2. are there any signs it could stop cnbc's jim cramer will be here to weigh in. and it's a bird, it's a plane -- no, it's just bitcoin, breaking you up 8,000. we'll tell you what is behind this move. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

be. welcome back to "fast money. we have a cramer alert for you jim cramer is live from san francisco. it's so great to have you with the markets in sell-off mode america wants to know one thing, how do you know when it's safe to buy again >> melissa, what i like to do is look at the companies with no china exposure i know people want to go immediately towards soft goods, campbell's, hershey. forget that. just watch facebook, watch amazon, watch netflix, watch alphabet, which is google, because they have no china expose ur. if they can actually just hold, i think buyers will come into this market. >> how are you feeling like a stock like apple we heard, for instance, intel talk about china the longer this goes, the longer into the current quarter these tensions can last. are we worried about maybe another round, preannouncement happening? >> look, i think fortunately we just got through a lot of the

earning seasons but apple is at the epicenter. i always say don't trade it, own it but i know apple's decline today is not a good sign bought a lot of stock back at 167, averaging $12 billion in the previous quarter but apple will be the hard eest one to fan up, we keep thinking china will do something against apple. starbucks went down and nike but those are not really the same thing as apple apple has the power to be able to hurt so many different stocks and they were all on display today. >> jim, are you concerned now that both the united states and chinese were sort of digging their heels in, both sides seem to be -- both sides seem to want to save face can that prolong these trade tensions >> i think the tensions are going to go on for a long time because i think the president wants to give many companies the chance to be able to weave one of the problems with that, i mean china, fred smith, the ceo

of fedex said to me, listen, a lot of these companies are engrained in china you can't just flip a switch and move a lot of the retailers, companies that make thing there's as parts, they're trying to get out but it's not that easy so i think it's going to take a long time but the president wants it to drag on because he wants companies to move out of china and do u.s. business here. >> jim, we will let you go i know you have a big, big show to prepare for tonight thank you very much, jim cramer. >> thank you, guys. >> don't miss a special "mad money" from san francisco tonight with workday ceo twitter cfo and william sonoma ceo a lot at the top of the hour on "mad money." make sure you catch that what do you think? >> i think going to places where you have some predictability in people talked about united health care, and j & j, companies that can be very defensive here i would be a little more concerned about mega cap check but i think a handful of these valuations are defensive and i agree google is one of them.

>> in terms of going into companies that have very little exposure to china, one would think small caps. >> moving to russell, iwm, which is small cap etf, if you look, it didn't make it nearly to the levels it will over the summer s&p made a brand-new high, russell didn't even come close that tells you something >> it's a growth call. if you're worried about kbroej in this company or globally, small caps will perform. that's your hedge. >> i like bank of america. the most u.s. concentrated, under ten times earnings here. also dividend but as kim said, that's not reason to buy it. i like it. >> karen's got fang. what do i have >> >> maggot >> we know they have a lot of exposure in china but don't think for a second google, who obviously is not in china, they get 90% of their sales from advertising. if we have a gloej slowdown because of this trade war, companies like that will be affected and the second a in

maga, mel -- amazon. don't think you try to push through the cost and where they source all of this stuff from. all of these guys will get exposed if this thing drags out. still ahead, as stocks are struggling, bitcoin is soaring up 100% and crossing over 8,000 today. what's behind the big-point boom traders will weigh in. live on times square, more "fast money" after this. them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪ beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond.

be. welcome back to "fast money. we've got a bitcoin alert. check out the move in cryptocurrency up near 4ri8%, putting its gains for the year at more than 110%. the rally is so big, so big that we decided to bring back the big point bug that is at the corner of your screen now. >> end of the rally once you put that up there. >> don't go on twitter those people are trolls. what's behind the monster move >> i don't know. i'm unclear. but one of the theories out there is china -- people in china are looking to find a way, get the money out and maybe bitcoin is the way to do it. if there's -- we talked to b.k. about it he thinks there's not that many sellers around looking to

aggressively sell. so if you have big demand and not a lot of sellers, obviously you get a big move here. i have not seen a better explanation than that. >> also a big bitcoin conference going on. >> big bitcoiners are running around and whipping up some froth. i'm not saying it's warrantsed or not warranted i'm telling you there's no question there's a fresh spotlight, and i don't think there's a lot of volume going through making this move but if you're going to bet on one name in crypto, you're going to bet on bitcoin and that's what's going on also when you start to see global -- just call it market dislocation. that's not a surprise. we've seen this before. >> i like what carter said about bitcoin, i'm not sure what it is, but it acts well. >> so we play the game from time to time. >> you know where i'm going. >> if you landed from another planet -- >> if you flew in from like mars, and a lot of people think i have done that and you look at the chart and say you didn't put

bitcoin -- >> what does it look like? >> the 6,000 level now it's blown through it resistance becomes support again, i'm not a bitcoin trader. i wouldn't know the first thing about it but i will tell you that chart looks extraordinarily good. >> you should talk more about if you don't know much about it. >> i am trying to learn. >> the consensus is there's no ammos lining up. one of the things that was interesting when the bull case was emerging in '16, '17, it was related to uncorrelate the risk assets we that that wasn't the case and when it went down like 3,000 straight points in december, that was against the fact it's acting opposite of the stock market now i think is bullish.

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. final trade time >> 30% revenue growth in alibaba in an environment you're paying about that, looks good to me oversold here. >> also in the oversold list, i think google right here. i like valuation. >> disney not oversold, overbought but if it starts to fill in the gap, that's where you want to buy that one. >> haven't chased it in california but he's got a coat on cold there, chilly here.

and dan didn't make fun of me once. >> you mean on air during the breaks, well -- >> a lot during the breaks sarepta had a great quarter but getting caught up in the maelstrom of the market. srpt. >> that does it for us for a specia my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always work somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money," coming to you from san francisco, the center of the hardest hit portion of the s