tv Street Signs CNBC May 14, 2019 4:00am-5:01am EDT
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>> shares sink of the german chemical firms to pay an t a couple $2 million in its third straight legal defeat. early falls after a full year loss and slashes its dividend as it focuses on its 5g network. welcome back to the show on this fine tuesday morning trade tensions between the u.s. and china. they've estimated once more. that's after beijing announced it would impose tariffs of 25% on $60 billion of worth of u.s. goods.
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president g when they meet at the g20 summit in japan, and that's not until june. >> we're in a strong position. our economy has been very powerful theirs has not been -- we've gone up a lot sense our great election in 2016 we're dealing with them and have a good relationship. maybe something will happen. we're going to be meeting, as you know, at the g20 in japan. that will be, i think, probably a very fruitful meeting. >> well, let's talk about the market response to china's response to the tariffs. yesterday we saw a weak session with all of the major says sharply lower by the end of the day. we had the nasdaq close down 3.5% weaker. the s&p dropping around 2.5% as well very weak session for u.s. equities the theme continued into asian
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equities overnight, but yet again, as we just heard from president trump, there's been a little optimism that these talks may actually yield a successful outcome, which is one of the reasons we're seeing a rebound in europe today. you can see there's a lot of green on the heat map and on the european board right behind me we've got stock europe 600 up 6.4% very weak session for u.s. equities weaker session for chinese equities and japanese equities overnight, but we've got stocks euro 600 trading up in the green. this is the average hourly
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earnings at multi-year highs as well 3.4% keep an eye on that. we are above 7,200 and seeing a rebound in basic resources, which helps when you see the mining exposed the dax, german index just shy of 12,000 here up about 40 points higher. cac up .2%. no surprise that we're seeing cyclicals rebound. one being autos up .9% we've also got chemicals right at the top there up one percentage point, even though there's one name in particular that is under a lot of scrutiny today. that is the german chemicals company. we will get into that. telecoms rights up at the top as well news from vodafone
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we had weaker earnings today in the last couple of days if you haven't been watching you auto tilts closely, many have been guiding to the same message. it's not just energy we also had eon and centrica warning of a weaker environment. for the most part we were trading in the red you can see the nikkei is down .6%. koch pi, the only one margin in the grown, but all eyes on the effects of the china tariff retaliation has had on chinese equities you can see the shanghai composite down .7% it's an interesting session
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because things started off very weak and then it looked as though there was some support coming into the market, but overall we've ended the day a little weaker as well. the hang seng index in hong kong also down 1.4% still markets gripped by nervousness ahead of the tit for tat war. we keep saying this over and over again, we need to figure out what the u.s. will do with auto tariffs as well, and there was some -- finally, quick look at u.s. futures. we talked about the weak close yesterday, but, again, because sentiment is more positive this morning with all three of the majors looking to open up in the green, dow seen opening up 45 points higher. s&p about five points higher i should tell you when i looked at these a half hour ago that dow was seen opening up about 150 points hire. we have come off in terms of what the market is pricing in. in terms of data, watch out for small business optimism. that comes out later today
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we're joined by chris, the ceo and chief market strategy jest at longview economics, and we just saw the u.s. futures pointing higher today. we've seen european markets rebound. request do you think that's happened after last night's sell-off >> well, i think there's a lot mo more 24 hours ago we've had the trump tweet from sunday, and then we had retaliation. now there's a sense that there is a plan. it looks like there's a path towards the end ofdown we know the sort of moves they seem to be making. we don't have anything erratic from trurp, if you like, and there seems to be a steady -- a clear sort of path, if you like, towards that meeting.
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we had new zealand the australians are getting there. we had malaysia and one other as well i think we'll get the world economy deflated assuming we sign a trade deal. >> let's talk about the china currency response. dollars seen appreciated by 1% over the last couple of sessions whether or not it was intentional is the -- the point is the currency is deappreciating it tends to be a high correlation between what the chinese currency does and response sentiment in the past couple of days perhaps again it could be a consequence, but weave seen the currency deappreciate, and all of these markets come off. various other indicators have also done well how closely are you watching the response
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autowe watch the rnb closer to the time i would put that strength in in the dollar down to signs of stress and determine in the chinese financial system it's my concerns about the escalation of the trade war. you know, the chinese economy, i think, is reflating. there's a agree of fragility to it i think money tries to leave that economy. how do you think about equities here do you get out >> no. i mean, china has come off 12%, 13% from its highs it had a strong rally that's significantly above where it was in december. i would be constructing on emerging market equities subject
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to trade deal being agreed as long as it's agreed, then i think the chinese inflation continues. you buy when the fed is reflating and when the dollar is flat, and hopefully soften not in the last couple of days when the economy is picking up, and i think that's probably where we'll be subject to the deal being signed. >> some of the u.s. stocks that really struggled yesterday are those that are the most exposed to the u.s.-china trade. i'm wondering whether you see that now as a buying opportunity for stocks because they look undervalued to you i think tlds a good chance that the market will bounce over the week or two. if you think about how markets position now, there's hedging to the down side. there's fear priced in you can see it in certain volt indicators the vix is a simple one, and there are more complicated because the conserve is sit up with that sort of path towards now being mapped out a little bit reduced certainty, i think the bounce is very probable.
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in bounces when you are deeply oversold, you boy the most -- which will be the stocks you referenced yeah, i mean, i think if i'm a punter, would i trade those stocks on a one to two-week view, and if i'm right and we get this we'll do very well. >> another blow to buyer find out why shares are taking yet another leg lower next what's a target date fund? 529 plan? a 10-k? what's an etf? an ipo? 401(k)? where do i start? empower yourself with the free tools and resources on investor.gov. before you invest, investor.gov.
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welcome back to the show a california jury has awarded more than $2 billion in damages to a couple who said roundup weed killer caused them both to have cancer. it's the largest u.s. verdict against bayer. it marks the third straight trial lost for the firm. the jury found that bayer had failed to warn the herbicide's cancer richks and that it had acted negligently. bayer said it was disappointed with the jury's decision and that it would appeal the verdict. our colleague annette joins us live annetta, how much of a threat
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really is this for bayer's margins and bottom line going forward? >> well, i think it's a huge threat if you are only talking about their margins. i think it could actually be a live threat to bayer, to be honest if you look at this sheer size of potential claims, which, yeah, sort of being there, but in the united states as it stands now, there are 13,400 of those potential lawsuits being prepared in the united states, and if you just think that every of them would get a compensation of only $10 million, that would already be a huge sum -- huge amount of money for bayer to be settled. i think going forward the crucial thing is when do they need to start to build up litigation reserves on their balance sheet, and how big will those be that's up to auditors. clearly, what we are seeing could be a perfect storm to
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bayer. a company which from kind of came from pharmaceutical research, pharmaceutical business moving into the chemical sphere and probably having done the most ill-fated m&a transaction in germany corporate history so far it looks like the monsanto deal which was worth more than $60 billion u.s. might actually be a huge, huge problem for bayer going forward. only last month we have seen an agm at bayer which actually didn't discharge the management board. this is like falling slort of a revolution in corporate germany because normally the management board always gets the trust of the confidence from their shareholders, so going forward we most likely will see a lot of action surrounding the management board and perhaps even a change in management and most likely high on litigation charges for bayer on their balance sheet, and that will eat
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up their profits most likely. back to you. >> thank you i think, annetta, the interesting conversation to be had about what this means for bayer as a stock, but we're going to take a look at how currencies are trading now withwith jumania. >> i think equities markets, and ever since then from president trump last week suggesting that tariffs would be going up and there would be further tariffs china did retaliate, but one currency payer we're watching is dollar r & b it's trading .1% weaker versus the u.s. dollar. we're trading at 6.88. analysts have revised upwards their forecast for dollar r & b on the back of tit for tat tariffs. you can see it's been fairly stable in the run-up into the last couple of weeks, and then
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all of a sudden last week or so we've had this big move. we've moved about 1% in the last couple of trading sessions this chart has really captured what has happened to dollar r & b in the last couple of sessions as we were just discussing with our strategist, also there will be a correlation between what happens to this currency and risk-on assets you may want to keep an eye on that one let's move on, though, and talk about some of the safe haven assets the u.s. treasuries, you can see today we are trading on a bit of ae bounce. it's trading slightly in the green at 220 there, but we also had a big bounce into treasuries yesterday. the five-year note, all of them are trading softer overnight, but the ten-year note is back at 240. it's not that long ago that we're talking about 3, 3%, 3.25% and the impact it would have on u.s. equities. what a difference a couple of months makes it tons to be very vrks he well support. 240 is the lowest of the
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ten-year note, and then the 30-year bond we have trading at around 285 and that's at that 3% level as well. >> a bit more. one thing as the ceo, chief market strategist, and i'm just looking at some comments that neil if made to cnbc yesterday he talked about how because the u.s. is not nearly so exposed to trade as china is and because the u.s. which he is larger than china, in any kind of tit for tat strategy in the last three or four days, ultimately the situation liens towards the united states. yet, who holds the u.s. treasuries china. in that sense how important is that holding of treasuries by beijing to the strategies you think between these two countries? >> well, i think it's often overexaggerated. you have it -- they hold them. they had to create to keep their currency down in the past. if you are -- you have to avert.
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it's not as simple as it seems. there are bubbles left, right, and center, and they manage to go for an awful long time. the more stress you come under, the more risk you take >> i wonder in this context now when we have many, many weeks now before the president of trump meet face-to-face, which may or may not end up in some kind of lez e resolution
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investors have a lot of time, although you think it's now reduced. will they be looking for safe haich assets, whether that's the yen, whether that's gold or the swiss franc? >> i think the safe haven trade has been in the short-term to be priced in in the last ten days i suspect a reversal of flows into safe havens for a couple of weeks, and then i think the market will assess where are we in terms of this trade deal, how does it look like in two or three weeks time >> there's been inflows into u.s. stocks from the -- but retail, moms and pops, have been pulling money out of the u.s. market.
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where the market goes they tend to follow. what you have to remember is we've just come off the back of a big sell-off into december last year. there's psychological damage done to retail investors and others really once you come off the back, 18 to 24 months to fully rally and fully reengage all the flows. lyft's stock is down 40% just a month ago. how do you think about that given these are -- they just simply haven't been able to perform in secondary trading where. >> it's a mixed bag. you pull up two of the most high profile, and that's one of the biggest if not the biggest it matters a lot
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i think it's the most loss wave had in history you look at companies like zoom, video communications, it opened up on day one just at 62% premium. he is the ceo and chief market strategist vodafone has cut its full-year dividend to nine a share it works to roll out its 5 g network and reduce its debt load they said their body will keep a progressive dividend policy in the future vodafone also announced that 5g will go live in europe starting this summer. don't forget the mobiles are looking to close its $22 billion acquisition of liberty global assets we're now joined by -- thanks so
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much for being with us we saw investors kel off against vodafone shares at the start of the morning's trade. it seems to reverse slightly since then what was behind that initial sell-off, do you think was it entirely focused on the cut to the dividend? >> i think so. i think the initial expectation was for a dividend cut, and certainly it's more out of necessity than choice with the combination of rating agency pressure, spectrum costs, plus also unknown potential for 5g spectrum costs to come out in the next 12 months or so it does help reduce the leverage rather than dwroe to the lower end of the target. 2.5 to 3 teams leverage. then i think that the fact that it was slightly less than many investors expected we're seeing a proactive or positive decision to focus on deleveraging the balance sheet. then the operating results of the q4 i was were in line with
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expectations so they did manage to meet their original target for the year in terms of free cash flow and ebida. there's a sense of relief on the headline results this morning. >> sense of relief because the dividend cut wasn't perhaps as large as some people had said. the stock was up 2.5% now. i just want to does you about the longer term ambitions because they did say today that they will be looking to roll out 5g this summer we're going to go live this summer, and they have plans about fiberoptic and big uptick in terms of households using fiberoptics by the mid 20s how achievable in your view are these ambitions, particularly in light of the fact that they are intent on deleveraging >> how will they reach their
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target the key thing here is we've only seen 5g launch in one market in the world so far that's sourkt. decision by one of the operators there to undercut the others in terms of pricing led to a change of strategy from the other operators. what we need to see really is in europe we need to see a different approach whereby they do price 5g services for higher prices than a traditional 4g existing services, and that is an unknown at this point in time that's going to be critical to getting to higher pricing, higher returns, and leading back to higher growth for your --
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that obviously is an unknown at this juncture. >> you come on to talk to us about vodafone it would be remiss to be while you're here not to ask you about trade dispute and the impact that's having on the tech sector we saw the tech sector sell off very heavily in the suts yesterday. in particular stocks like apple. i want to ask you, do you think they're going to continue to be the most exposed when it comes to these ongoing negotiations between the u.s. and china >> i think so. i think partly it's a function of valuations because many areas of technology are trading on all-time high valuations and very, very extreme multiples part of the reason for that is the tech complex is considered to have long-term better visibility, significant operating leveraging in their models, and when you see these kind of actions take place with the trade issues, it actually leads to issues around whether that -- if that long-term operating leverage is still possible there are obviously concerns
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that tech in terms of hardware and that can be in laptops and components can get hit aggressively in terms of impact for market dough manned and component costs and those lead to marketing pressures going forward. yes, the tech complex is probably as highly exposed, and not just from the actual headline tariffs, but also from the rhetoric around what's happening in terms of the trade bodies, for example, or even in terms of what the implications could be to where lots of these compointsents are being built currently. you see the u.s. tech has been the leader if you like of the globalization movement over the last 15 years, and that is something that's going to have to take time to unwind going forward. >> neil, thanks for sharing. grateful for your time this morning. that was neil, the head of tnt refrp at mirabow securities. >> stay with us, because also coming up in the show nissan
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>> we've got fresh u.k. employment and unemployment numbers out. it looks like the main rate staying at 3.8%. that's against an expectation of 3.9% in terms of the average weekly earnings well, try to look at those that are excludeing bonuses. they're up 3.3% for the year-on-year in the last three months that's to march. march is a month low, and they were up 2.9% year-on-year. what is really driving this index performance is actually a bit of a rebound we're seeing in basic resources. some of the minors and that particular index the dax also slightly termer
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today. approximateth 2% crucially we are pairing back some of the gains that we had early on in the session. things are beginning to slip just on germany, i want to point out where the german fed index comes up in half hour time very good news for how businesses and consumers are thinking about the economic environment. keep an eye on that one from the market perspective it's an indicative vote or meaningful vote, and the parliament this week all eyes on that and whether or not these cross-party talks will actually yield something not a lot of optimism there. the pound is trading on the back
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foot u.s. futures are pointed in the green as well. we are seeing a safe haven bid as well. there you can see the picture for u.s. markets is pretty much all over the green i just want to point out, though, that the dow futures has started dropping about an hour ago they were pointed to open up in the triple digit positive territory we're now looking to open up 40 points higher. the tariffs between china and the u.s. the result of these talks should be positive, but investors, no doubt, waiting to see what happens there. >> well, let's look now. russian aluminum giant is trading lower after reports of
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44% fall in first quarter net profit they lifted in january rusal said it was focused on the market position amid all the uncertainty of the u.s. china trade war. and thyssenkrupp -- the german conglomerate reported a net loss of 99 million euros per squaurt and its view that it will post a loss for the full year now plans to lift the elevator unit where operating profits drop more than 10% due to higher costs. we're now joined by paul, the senior gee olgts and mining analyst. thanks for being with us >> i think he has quite a bit of pressure, particularly since the
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overall macroenvironment and german economic environment both are against him at this point in time whatever he can do in order to improve the margins of the business actually get the revenue and earnings before tax moving in the right direction rather than the wrong one. >> which area in particular ow dow think they need to focus on? earlier today just looking at the earnings they're elevated business, which is supposed to be one of the more profitable areas actually show the decline in margins. it's spin-outs to public markets, and that's the thipg. whatever you can do.
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>> there's a context for why this is moving in your words in the wrong direction. is it the perfect storm of external factors trade uncertainty, brexit uncertainty, troubled auto industry in countries like germany >> it is a perfect storm there doesn't seem to be management severe failing, i guess, if you will, if you put it that way, making a wrong decision at a particular point and points this time they haven't moved fast enough to alleviate some of the pressures against their overall market >> i want to broaden this out and talk about your asx expertise insofar as the tariffs are impacting, and just look at
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some of the metals, copper was down 2% ever since the initial tariff tweets came out >> it is having a significant thing because it's taking the interest or the sentiment away from being bullish on the base metal commodities in particular, and towards being rather blah or, in fact, negative against them in a shorter term as long as this uncertainty around trade and, therefore, trade orders is remains there. >> steel has been at the center of all the trade disputes almost since the beginning, and i wonder, do you think that efforts by the united states and to some extent with the barriers at the e.u. has put up that they've done anything to curb dumping by chinese producers, which was often the stated aim tleld like to do more, but the
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intransigence about the chinese government in particular, because it impacts this statement that they've made this week that they would have to actually make changes in chinese law in order to comply with the trade complaints, and that is a more difficult thing than i think lots of people realize >> yesterday china announced $60 billion worth of retaliatory tariffs where, we look through the list one thing that was excluded was these goods, and i just wonder from your perspective how significant is it the fact that they left that out and oversee that has big implications, i would presume, for the technology sector. they don't want to cause any additional hardship on japan
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when it coming to rare earth it's the elect fiction of the overall economy for the next several decades with things like magnets for motors and power trains for vehicles. >> it's very interesting that they were then excluded from the lursz because they're part of china 2025 very important for them. the elect fiction process. worry going to leave it there. thank you for taking the time to chat to us today that was paul rankin, mining analyst vsa capital. i want to bring you numbers that we've had out of nissan. the japanese car make sure just to break it down for you here they have it slashed their forecast for the year. let me just bring it down to you. they have slashed their 2022, 2023 pretty target to around 6% from 8%. they have also slashed their revenue targets for 2022, 2023
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to 4.5 trillion yen in their midterm business plan. you can see that that actually the stocks are turning south here down 3%, and, again, this is after they flagged their weakest profits and more than a decade just to bring you what those profit numbers are, here i'm looking at the operating profit that came in at 546 billion yen. that is down 27% year-on-year.
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it looks like the weakest is persisting just to recap, we have the lowest profits in a decade, weak disappointing sales in north america, and they have revised down wards their business targets in both margin perspective and a revenue perspective for nissan the stock down 3%. let's bring in an analyst janet lewis, the head industrials and transportation analyst from mcquarie just looking through the numbers, not very encouraging, are they?
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to march 17 they had a stretch target for volumes which took 1% off of their operating margins now as they go about the back off from things like -- they have -- they will take a hit in terms of the volumes the second point that they highlight is the product age it's an incredibly high product age, and it's very hard to compete against companies like toyota and honda who have much newer products on the market, particularly in the light truck range. >> we're yet to hear from the united states and looking at nissan earnings today, clearly one of their weak segments is in
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north american markets if the u.s. do indeed go ahead with the section 232 tariffs, what type of knock-on effects would it have for the likes of japanese carmakers and nissan in this situation nissan and honda in particular are relatively well insulated because most of the cars that they sell into those markets are produced within north america. there would be some impact on parts, but overall they're not nearly as impacted as even toyota, although toyota is mainly impacted on the lexus range, and some of the smaller japanese automakers, such as subaru or mazda or mitsubishi are much more dependent on imported vehicles and, therefore, would be impacted that more >> how do they go about revitalizing their sales and weaker markets, rebuilding their brand essentially?
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>> the key will be the new product they come out with wruft areas they have suffered competitively in the north american markets has been less positive reviews from things like jd power consumer reports, edmun edmunds.com. skurnlz consult these publ kegs when they're looking at what vehicles to buy next >> what nissan needs with the new products it's planning to launch is to really start to turn the dial in terms of percent sepgs of product to quality, and leverage that to an enhanced brand image, and that, in turn, should lead to better sales and help them minimize incentives >> let's just turn our attention to europe. i see that they've announced european sales of 600 thousand vehicles for this year versus 643,000 vehicles last year a bit of a drop in europe as
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well >> there's a ten-year program reducing taxes to zero how much of an upside opportunity does it present to nissan and carmakers in this instance if they can sell their cars in europe with zero tariffs? >> one of the biggest impacts will be more focus from nissan to produce the cars that it ships to europe out of japan it has been using some of renault's facilities in korea. it has been been using some of this irfacilities in france. it is actually more efficient for them to produce in japan and, therefore, ship the shortfall in sales came really bad they were not very well prepared for the new
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emissions protocol that had been approved >> thank you for taking the time to chat to us about all things nissan and the auto sector janet lewis, ahead of industrials and transportation for mcquarie there are plans for the ipo called trade-on in march it had previously banned 25% of the business to raise up to 6 billion euros. at the time it blamed difficult market editions. >> there's an ipo pipeline in germany to watch out for wrrn. >> who will fill the top jobs at the jurp even commission and the
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>> welcome back to street siebz. the move continues a lot of red on the screen you can see the picture for europe is quite positive we've got all four of the majors trading up in the green here the outperformer, ftse 100 up .7 in terms of the sector, we have telecoms leading the charge up 1.5 percentage points. the tech sector that got beaten down price action. as well as i members of the juried mostly in the red with the exception of the koch by ending the session up .1% firmer the japanese index is down .6 percentage points. hang seng down 1.5 percentage point, and all eye on the
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shanghai composite it was a volatile session, but at some point it appeared as though some stabilization going on pointing to ep on up first lady. dow about 50, and nasdaq up about 34 as well remember, this after a session that saw the nasdaq close down 3.5 percentage points yesterday. >> jay my hunt has an unintend the consequence in the gulf region he told reporters in brussels the u.k. is worried about an escalati escalation mike pompeo held talks with his european counter parts in brussels he reaffirmed the support from 2015 noourk deal and said it's in europe's security interest to hold on to it. sticking with brussels, several top e.u. jobs will become vacant after the european election,
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including the presidencies of the european commission and the yourp even council our colleague can give us a few more details >> that's right. up for grabs look forward to the yen e end of the year. woel see the european commission, european parliament, european council as well as the european central bank. the way that the year was going to decide who gets which job is by getting together by putting together the 28 heads of state, and they will try to strike a balance between nationality, political affiliation, and gender let's look at european commission in more detail because there's a lot of talk about who might become the next president of the commission context of the upcoming europea
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election be can't forget she's a female, and none of four top jobs have female at the helm when we are talking about who is going to be the next president of the commission, we cannot forget that the process is not very straight forward. there are other names floating around including michelle, the brexit negotiator, christine lagarde, imf managing director, and, of course, the dutch prime minister >> for today's show, really appreciate it. >> thank you for wuching worldwide exchange coming up next
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1.1 trillion dollars in market cap gone. that's how much has been wiped out of the market since president trump turned up the heat on the trade war with china. we'll run you through more of the staggering stats around the sell-offed straight ahead. the pregds setting a new timeline for china trade talks we will go live to beijing the market turmoil driving investors back into bitcoin, the crypto that just continues to go higher this morning.
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