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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 14, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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has traded poorly. that stock gets right in the middle of it all. >> oil prices slipped in today and they have faced a more healthy rebound and the dollar remains remarkably flat. >> the dollar is just kind of calm, right? >> except against the chinese currency that's fallen and a lot of people see that as the leadingenticat leading indicator. china. >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now overlooking times square tim seymour, chris verone, and guy adami and still half of the s&p 500 is sitting in a correction and one top technician said they can't buy me out he'll take us bottom fishes and it's a shipping showdown any walmart firing back at amazon starting to roll out one-day deliveries for all orders over $35. which stock has the edge in traders will weigh in.
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we start with stocks snapping back and the dow soaring 350 after the highs of the day and after yesterday's steep sell-off this after president trump said the trade is little kwaua littl. so can you trust this bounce or is there more pain ahead, guy? >> no and yes. i answered your questions correctly. no, you can't trust a bounce and yes, do i think there's more pain i said it last night, i think the s&p can absolutely trade down to 2650 that's, i don't know, 180 and s&p handles from here and that's 6%, 6.5% and i think that move is in the cards and i think you have a major double top in terms of 2940 and president trump can say whatever he wants in the squabble and easy to fix and he understands that, as well and i understand that he wants the stock market go higher and he had that happen today and i think his tweets are diminishing marginal returns and the market goes lower from here
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>> where are we in terms of levels >> we were in 2900 on friday and we were 2800 and we reversed off that, and the internals were very tepid today and the stocks only beat the declining stocks on 2 to 1, on good rallies, and the it was .7 and you want to see that near .5, and i was underwholeped with the leadership and we're one week into the pullback and after a four-month move we pause here. >> no reason why the response shouldn't be emphatic and that tweets and not even making up for defined and pronounced, it's a week in china that let it be known, that china is weighing in some people on any other day would say, wow, emphatic which we talk about the indicator when
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the markets have it, 19 rsi and the nine-day basis was near where we were on christmas eve. >> guess what? after today's move the rsa is now back at 35 which means it's not oversold so you can get oversold to not so oversold quickly which sets up to oversold again i'm not saying that we have to do that, but i guess this is some echoing of the same sentiment. >> so if the trade deal goes poorly, the fed is on the sidelines now, but if the trade deal goes poorly, the fed might cut, yes or no >> the fed funds futures are 53% in september they're more likely to cut, and if they get better the market is more likely to get higher and you're in the sweet spot after the sell-off that we've seen in the overall market, i am constructive although i do have the levels at twit it
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just think about it, we're not going to hear about new news about trade for the next couple of week, right you're not going to hear any new earnings the next couple of weeks. when did we always grow up in the marketplace? never short a -- >> dull market >> i think we can sell off, but how long will that sell? i think it will be quick it might be deep, it might feel terrible, but i think we snap right back. >> when you look at some of these levels 2750, we'd be gaining back a third of the rally and 2650, we'd be giving back half and those are reasonable corrections after 25% moves. what i didn't like about some of the macro parts of today's move, copper was soft. oil reversed off the highs bond yields were up -- >> the yields were down. >> i wouldn't say they grew narrative change -- you said it, we were oversold and it was a
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whiplash back and i don't think it was resolved on a day like today because you are back off your heels because you have the perfect storm for why the sell-off should hold and there's too much nice talk on trade. there's not enough and take out the tweets from president trump. there's not a lot that makes me say oh, my gosh, this is irreconcilable it's not going to happen. >> in terms of the markets today, taking a look at the areas of weakness, chris, you mentioned, too, and i was definitely noticing the bond markets in the pre-market trade when futures were higher and the bond yields weren't moving too much during the session facebook closed lower and alphabet finished lower by a percent and fedex closed lower and there are certain stocks of the, ma, these stocks should theoretically be higher. >> on a day when the market's up, a couple of dow points, that's a stock that didn't make
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a relief rally i thought the rally was less than insearing, i think today was bearish, the exact did i you wanted >> privacy is going to be a problem and you can lump in google, as well. >> if we lump in names like amat and names like caterpillar and i think that will tell the tale of the tape as we move over the next couple of weeks and i would stop short of calling this market yesterday oversold. we were 4% down over a week and i recognize some of the short-term tactical tstuff and you had 40% moving average and that's not deeply oversold it will come down to what people are say at this point. >> think this is the most relevant debate because interest rates to me, i think we see 220 before we see 280 on the ten-year if anything, we have a lot of
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uncertainty still. people are willing to spend not just 17 and they're 17 times current estimates or you the market of thing it pay $pen their 19, i think you have's design where they don't have to sell a lot sfo that's a -- apple would have to raise prices by 14% on its iphones in order to maintain gross margins. for retailers they would have to on average go to bank of america and raise prices on apparel by 2.3% the companies are going to deal with this, whether they can absorb those cost which is apple ultimately may be able to do, but can retailers with such thin
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margins. >> i understand what steve is saying sxshg my pu saying and my pushback would be and you're talking about the trade war and trade dispute. if inflation picks up over the the back of this over the next couple of months and we brought that up lasti night i'm no fan of the fed and if we'll have an inflationary environment based on what you just said there will be quite a problem. >> i find that trance fore and we'll sneak back in if we get a whiff or sniff of inflation they'll say it's a transatory event and that's what it was trade wars, the sell-offs that we've had on trade wars, they've been short the sell-offs that we've had on fed, those would be longer in duration >> i think we'll have a nice sdougz walmart and amazon, but the labor costs pressure xs the competitive environment that is cutthroat amongst all of those
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things that we know sit in the same saddle with amazon, excuse me, with walmart which don't include amazon i think you have big problems for retailers in terms of margin pressure and whether they can make money, and i think that's an issue right now because they can't pass it along. when apparel company can be passing along, unless you're nike and you go to the stores to pay them down. >> the staples they've been sending this message for years and it's all discretionary names that are catching up for this. >> you can't trust this bounce and the etf and you've heard the preponderance. >> thank you for having me. >> why are we going to see a summer rally >> the underlying data which we're not talking about is very strong and we just finished up earnings and toward the end of the year and the beginning of the year everyone thought we would have an earnings recession. earnings beat expectations by 5%
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and we're up 2.5% year on year first quarter gdp around the world actually surprised employment is still strong productivity numbers are starting to improve and we have not seen productivity strong in a while and we have a couple of good data points and if that trend continues that will also be good for the economy and we're starting to see a lot of green chutes that the market is not paying attention to with the trade war noise that we're seeing. >> for the earnings in particular, i'm curious because some people say the first quarter that's rear-view mirror at this point. when it comes to the full-year forecast that we have, do you get a sense that companies have factored in the full-blown trade war in those forecasts or is there room for a ratcheting lower of the full-year forecasts? >> the way we measure that, one of the greatest leading indicators is looking at earnings estimate revision ratios what are analysts really doing with their numbers because they're the ones that are really talking to managements and we're starting to see a truf on a
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global basis and this is one of those green shoots that there's potential upside surprises as we move forward of cyclical green chutes, what type of stocks do we need to tell us from the market perspective everything that just got hit is everything that you want to buy. >> we did some interesting analysis because we followed etfs and they were highly sensitive to the china trade war and the majority of them are technology particularly, semiconductors and you have the qqqs in there and tech is getting hit pretty hard and that's a sector that we see secular growth in and that's part of the driver of the secular growth market. we still like consumer discretionary and industrials. so we would stay with the cyclical side. >> your firm just released the fund managers survey and if that fund managers survey it is perceived that technology is the most crowded trade out there so how do you reconcile because
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that implies maybe people are getting it wrong and they're getting too ebullient about that. >> it's a really great point basically, maybe you have overbought conditions and chris knows this a lot better than i do is you can get some overbought conditions and you have to correct out some of these overbought conditions and when you take a much longer term view of the position of technology, particularly the technology here in the united states, we're very, very well positioned, and i think that this is the main driver of the market so clients that have been concerned about actually putting money to work, this is their opportunity and they had it in december and january, if they're still having come in, this is another opportunity for them to add to equity exposure >> what's the case the china, u.s.-china side and what's the bear case and what shoots a hole in this your 2900 price target >> so we highlight three different scenarios and the worst scenario is an outright trade war where we just get a lot of tariffs upon tariffs and
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economic data starts getting impacted and that starts implicating earnings to the downside and that particular scenario, then we see a potential 20% to 30% downside, but here's an interesting statistic, and we look at the different secular bull markets and since we had a bear market last year we wanted to know if we've ever had consecutive bear markets in the bull market and the answer is no we've never seen back-to-back bear markets. >> unless you're in a bear market >> unless you're in a bear market absolutely this is in a secular bull market so we already had the bear market many haven't noticed that the bear market happened because between brexit and trade wars it's taken away from the underlying data and given everything that's happened the data really has a positive tone to it. >> so when you say summer rally, what kind of rally are we talking about? >> see, now this gets exciting if we can get good quiet and a new rally we can break out to
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new highs and we can get to a range of 3,000 to 3200. >> by the summer >> by the summer >> 3200? >> yeah. because the market is not positioned for that, but our year-end target remains 2900 and we don't see that actually sustaining throughout the year, but we do think that we can get a very, very strong summer rally. >> does that rally start here or does it start at 2550 or 2600? that's the tricky start where 4% down, is that enough in this tactical -- >> if we can get three or five corrections in one year and one could argue you have a 5% correction and the question is can we get down to 2650 and get the full 10% correction. really nobody knows the answer to that and it will be here or 2650 that we think the market settles out and starts the summer rally. >> maryanne, bank of america
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merrill lynch. >> it's your newfound bullishness. think about how many headlines on brexit sent the market into a tailspin, right? >> now you see brexit and everyone totally ignores it. i'm not saying that china trade will be the same way, but to the same degree? y no, but by the same extent it is sort of getting numb to it overall. >> great to have bank of america on our desk and i would just say the pushback that i would have is that first of all, mega-cap tech are the place where people have growth. the epicenter of the storm is technology and think of the american companies that say china is not their friend right now and they're running into it and think about what intel told us twice and think about what texan told us. in the environment where this would feel different and plus regulatory overhang and as much as i love google and facebook and apple, these companies may have a slightly different cycle to ride through right now than they have at other times when we questioned global macro. that's just a thought.
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>> coming up, pot stocks on the move that stock is higher by 5% we are awaiting earnings from aurora which we are expecting any moment the bank behind some of the largest cannabis deals in the space. he'll explain why his company is banking on bud plus, more than 50% of s&p 500 stocks still in correction or worse for one top technician says it's time to go bottom fishing and we'll tell you if it's worth a buy we're live in times sqreneua, w york city. much more "fast money" right after this who says our bank isn't tech enough?
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everyone, look at your phones. the design thinking, the digital engineering, security, blockchain, and we will be first to market! yes. when we do we launch? unfortunately, in 2 or 3, hours. why the delay? cognizant is helping banks use digital technologies at scale to advance speed to market.
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listen to your mom, knuckleheads. hand em over. hand what over? video games, whatever you got. let's go. you can watch videos of people playing video games in the morning. is that everything? i can see who's online. i'm gonna sweep the sofa fort.
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well, look what i found. take control of your wifi with xfinity xfi. let's roll! now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity xfi gives you the speed, coverage and control you need. manage your wifi network from anywhere when you download the xfi app today. welcome back to "fast money. the shipping wars are warming up it will launch next-day delivery in phoenix, las vegas and southern california this week and this comes after amazon announced an $ 800 million project to subscribers in the near future and walmart and target shares playing catch-up so far this year and can these brick and mortars battle amazon on its own it you ever >> no, they can't. this puts fresh pressure which they've been doing and they're losing the price advantage here. their competitive advantage is
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narrowing a bit and the cost is a major deal and their pharma business could be at risk and we talk about that every day. if we talk about the pressure is to compete with prime and i don't think so and i think people have been diluted by things like flip cart and walmart's attempts to appear tech savvy and global, it's a domestic story maybe that helps them now, but this is not a name i would run to cover >> and you put the trade war on top of all of this and that's another thing. all of this -- >> it's all coming from china. >> price pressure and margin pressure >> wal namart, if anyone can compete with walmart and supplier, if they can squeeze them out a little bit in the tariff landscape in an environmental landscape like that, but it's something where you've got to remember walmart is 50% groceries groceries as tim said this is a u.s. story they're not coming from beijing. their heads of lettuce are not coming from there. >> they're also not making
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money. >> groceries are not business. >> their e-commerce was up 43% last year and they're guiding towards it being up 30% and 43% this whole year quarter by quarter. i think they have the growth and ability in e-commerce where many of the brick and mortar don't have do they have the luckry of having a spending story with the growth that they have, like a tech company can sell that message and even tech companies now are, you know, investors may not be too receptive to the message either in this environment. >> i think ultimately the pictures and the charts and the prices will tell us the answers of who the winner of the story is and you look at walmart, it's quietly getting better and it bottomed at 80 and you break that through 110 and that is a major structural breakout on the walmart chart and conversely, you look at amazon and 97% of the analysts have a buy on it and the number is 40% on walmart and if you are looking at the contrarian and an improving chart, walmart is there for us
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>> the chart might look great than it does and you look at walmart and where are the earnings growth and they don't have any trades and at 21 times forward numbers and they better crush thursday morning or the stock goes down. and given the pressures that you just cited and i'm more inclined to sell it and that stock after they reported was going lower and what saved them the day of earnings was the fact it came out with the one-day thing and that threw them the lifeline and the next day they had mr. buffett and company announced that they put a stake in the stock. the stock, here they are and this is where the stock should have been post earnings and amazon still has room to the down side. >> for more on walmart versus amazon and which stock will go out on top and go to tradingnation.cnbc.com i'm melissa lee, on cnbc, first in trading worldwide here's what's coming up on fast. >> it's just bitcoin, but the
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cryptocurrency is soaring right past $8,000, and we'll tell you what's really fueling the superhero rally. plus -- >> take the boat >> check >> we're going fishing >> that's right. as the trade wars sink stocks this month, one cop technician is taking us bottom fishing for ine names that could be hittg back to the surface. there's much more fast money right after this n lean on peopl, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. you can't do everything yourself. you need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, that's morgan stanley. they're industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. i'm really excited to be part of the morgan stanley team. i'm justin rose. we are morgan stanley.
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right now would be the best time to do bottom fishing and let's go off the charts with chris verone >> let's first start with the index and put in context where we are and what comes next we had this 25% rally off the lows over about a period of four months we've come in 4.5% or 5% from the highs and a modest correction and it's early to say that we're deeply oversold and yet we still have 40% of stocks above the 50-day moving, and it's not washed out to the extent that you would expect for the decline of that, and i think there's a little bit more work to go on the downside and maybe 2650 and 2700 i think is an area where there's better opportunity. so we want to focus names and we want to focus on stocks that are washed out, and it's still down about 30% from the 52-week high and we've been impressed with the leadership that is offered over the last number of weeks, and it's quietly come out of
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oversold territory and this is a stock that can be bought ask you get it above the 1050 level and we're looking at $13 as the target and we look at a name like a lowe's. this has corrected 12% off the high and nearly double of what we've seen from the s&p and what we like about it here is the series of higher lows that we have bottomed right here near the 70 and it trades near a hundred today and in relative strength terms it's outperformed along the way. so back at support near the 200 and we think that's a timely buy and one more on the long side here, it's coming about 18% from the highs. this is microchip part of the semis and clearly a very important group and important name and it is very oversold here and the rsi is in the low 30s. we're back to the 200-day moving average right here a good area, a timely area to add some exposure and i would also note for the first time in about six months you have the 50
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actually break above the 200 and we're oversold in an up trend. i think conversely, we want to be skeptical of the names that have rallied in weak trends and there's a handful of them and this is equipment and bdx and this looks like a top us to and failed to make a new high here and closed on the lows today and didn't rally and making new relative lows here and one of the more vulnerable names and i think you have to be careful with the names rallying in weak trends and instead by leaders back at support that are oversold >> chris, why don't you come back on over to the desk >> bring him back. >> it would be awkward if we kept him over there with the chair empty and all. guy? >> microchip is an interesting stock. valuation is reasonable and they just reported earnings and however, melissa, we liked this double top and you talked about the s&p and guess what you have the same thing in microchip around the 103 level and traded up in the fall and had a huge sell-off and it seemingly fell and at this point
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with no catalyst in my purview with the market seemingly vulnerable here and the microchip goes down from here. >> one of those names, macy's is a name that's not found a whole lot of love here and it's a name that the same-store sales trends and we're not going to tell you that macy's is going back to the glory days and they're starting to grow top line and i think they've lacked some very difficult comps and if you look at the company that's reaffirmed and they're looking around 3 and three-quarter with a major dividend and not the reason to buy a stock and sometimes people question whether the balance sheet allows them to pay that. >> i like macy's and i like ge i'm still long ge and it turned the corner on a perception basis and they're given a lot more leeway and flexibility and i see that more in the chart and you don't see these fall off the cliff anymore and the stock is going down on headlines that would have otherwise taken it down >> i think it's an important stock for the market this is a stock that would lead
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you lower on the downside and the fact that it acts better here i think is encouraging that after this corrective phase, this is not a market that goes to zero here i think there's some value being created and look at names like ge and even lowe's homebuilders have acted well during this home period and i think these are decent signs for the broad market. >> my view on ge which is my number one pick on the cnbc draft. >> doing very well and some of it not so much. >> macy's, we just talked about that and electronic arts has been the dog, and with general electric, there's no one left to sell the stock in my view. >> i realize there are people speculating on the short side and they went on this stock as a funk of t function of the dividend and the function of issues and it may still be the balance sheet and if we're in an environment where people are starting to look at massive debt stories that begin -- fallen angels and ge is the definition if you look in any type of an investment
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portfolio. >> what is the downgrade away from being junk. if the global economy is you know what, ge will have trouble? ge does have trouble can i bring something up although i appear on the show i'm also a viewer of the show and you see something, you said we have a top technician coming on we can have carter braxton worth or somebody. chris verone is top and he's on the desk tonight and that was sort of -- that was disingenuous >> this is what i promised >> i promised the viewers a top technician would bring us bottom fishing through the charts what did we get? a top technician going bottom fishing for the charts. >> they're wasting good time on the show >> wasting time. our audience wants to know people at home want to know. >> still ahead, two reefr repor reefer reports and we'll bring you the latest on those stocks from cannabis to crypto, what
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more could you want? it's soaring up rehamo tn 40% this year. we'll explain when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert on
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tilray aditi roy has the details. >> tilray shares soaring after hours upper inially 4.5% after their earnings we're still waiting on the numbers from aurora, but in the meantime, tilray providing color on its investments in a competitive market which weighed on the bottom line on the call, ceo, brendan kennedy said the company is seeing high demand in the canadian market and is spending more than $32 million to expand canadian production cast and tilray is investing in international markets and it opened up a medical cannabis operation in portugal. it also just closed its acquisition of harvest and tilray is looking for new partnerships and it has deals with inbev and tilray is eyeing a number of industries for future partnerships. >> we've mentioned pharmaceuticals. we've mentioned alcohol. we're starting to see tobacco companies enter the industry i think retail is the next year
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where lots of retailers throughout the united states are looking to have cannabis products or products derived from cannabis, primarily cbd on their shelves and we hope to have our products on their shelves in the second half of this year. >> another key metric from their earnings, total telegraph soared twofold to more than 3,000, but the average selling net price per gram decreased to $5.50 compared to 5.94 a year ago and melissa, we are still waiting on those aurora numbers. >> aditi, thank you. aditi roy in san francisco let's talk about tilray, you and i were discussing about the net selling price which went down precipitously quarter on quarter and year on year >> you still have shortages on canada and these are the bottlenecks in the system that are moving through and it's moving than the recreational market and this is part of the dynamic. when you talk about tilray the company has been beaten on the back of their own success in the
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capital markets and so therefore the valuation has been difficult to justify and the stock's down 60% since late november and i think at some point you have to look at the management team that has worked out very strong and j.d. with some of the biggest multinationals in the world and they'll probably put 65 million in the revenues alone for 2019 and i think they're doing some of the right things and i think people look at the canadian lps and say these valuations still don't make sense >> we should note that aurora's earnings should be out any minute and we have the conference call tomorrow and we'll have aurora executive chairman michael singer on the show tomorrow night so you won't want to miss that. >> i sold them and the charts have been under pressure and tim just said there was a cannabis shortage and you still have regulatory headwinds and you have three issues that have been in the marketplace that are somewhat known or have been prevalent throughout the whole
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space and it's probably time to walk into the space. >> when we do the thing called the power pitch. >> the fast pitch. >> almost got you there. power pitch is one of my favorite things and i'll tell you something, we power pitched a -- a cannabis stock a while back trading at $97. >> pharma. >> and all of these analysts putting $225 on the back of it post-earnings. >> what have you got for us, guy? >> i have tony dwyer's boss. [ laughter ] >> it has reigned supreme as one of the financiers of the budding industry, the firm raising $4 billion from cannabis companies and is behind the largest m and a deals in the space including acreage holdings and the most recent purchase and for more on the cannabis space, let's bring in dan davio and the president
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and ceo of canaccord securities. it's great to have you with us and i would start off with asking you of a review of tony's appearance, but our show is not long enough for that you are holding a conference -- i'm just wondering as a place setter, how it's changed in tone even from last year or the year before this is our third year holding a conference in new york, and i won't talk about year one because it was painful to get people to come, but since last year, we've got 1500 investors there today, and 1500 investors, that's up double from the year before we've got a hundred companies there today and that's up over double than the year before. so the investable universe is expanding and the number of investors is expanding and that's just our new york conference we hold conferences in london, toronto, vancouver, everywhere, trying to populate the world and educate them on the cannabis investing space. >> let's talk about deals in this space and obviously the acreage, canopy one. you're involved on the acreage
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side, correct? of course, it's a commitment to buy age raj and one of a couple of triggers happen and either federal legalization or the treatment of cannabis companies on stock exchanges >> do you think this deal has to go through and there has been some resistance and the 2.7% stake in acreage >> i think it's a relatively small holding in term was resistance and certainly all of the shareholders i speak to, i've been very, very supportive of the transaction and they understand the scales are important to this business and you can say whatever you want about the transaction and canopy is a large company that's been spending billionsof dollars on technology and on systems and on delivery mechanisms and most important part of this deal is not so much the exchange ratio, the fixed price exchange ratio it's the i.p. license and canopy has given acreage a 90-month complete royalty-free i.p. license for all of the i.p what acreage will obviously do is not only use the i.p. and use
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the brands and at the end of the day that transaction will happen if it's allowed to happen. they'll want to buy that there is one part of the marketo letter to acreage valued acreage at $27.48 and the analyst that had coverage to the deal had a price target of $35 and there's a no go shop on this deal. >> i mean, is that, in your view going to be it is standard in this industry? why is there want enough of a competitive bidding process for this asset which is acreage? right. >> especially when you're an analyst and there's more upside to it. >> the problem is analyst estimates are a year out that's what they are the price will be so and so in a year it's snot talking about the cost today. if you'll be investing in this industry and taking the risk you'll want a substantially
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higher price number one, number two, there's an incredible amount of volatility in this industry. you just spoke to it so what an analyst publishes two months ago may not, in fact, be reflective of the cost of capital today in that business and there's walls and organizations and analysts are allowed to do whatever they want to do relative to what corporate financing does >> we have bruce and kevin on set and bruce seemed to be convinced that this could be some sort of a template for this industry do you think this sort of deal would be replicated and will this be a runoff especially with the constraints on cannabis companies that are listed here on the stock exchange? >> i won't speak to who will do what, but clearly the canadian companies and guy mentioned it and other people have mentioned it that they have some very lofty valuations relative to the u.s. peers those valuations eventually will collapse a little bit. so what they're doing now is they're figuring out ways to get into the u.s. market and make sense. it's the biggest consumer market
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in the world and it's probably the biggest medical market in the world so they have to figure out a way to get in and there are a number of different ways to come into the market and whether it's a brand deal or other option deals and they've explored on exchangeable shares and all kind of structures that can happen and rest assured the four largest canadian companies are all looking at ways coming here >> and they will be here and they will be present in the u.s. in some way. >> or they'll have to buy in later. if you're tilray, brandon kennedy has a big market cap and he can afford to buy his way in later, too >> and tony, one to ten? >> tony who? >> 9.9. >> okay. >> dan, thank you. good to see you. >> thank you >> tim, what do you think? >> first of all, congrats to canaccord to have poll position in this industry i'd love to see when canaccord might list in the u.s. people are looking to exposure to the banking side of this.
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this is, you know, a very interesting play the bottom line here is you have enormous m & a and you can make an argument at this event the m and a that there was a couple of deals announced and we'll make the next 12 months look like people were sleeping and that's a function really of where i do think that you're seeing cross-border deals in a way that could happen. >> have you taken a look at any of these chart, chris? because we saw tilray go up over the summer >> this was a $200 stock in the fall of last year and it's a $50 stock where it will open tomorrow i think it's a trade at the best, but it's not something that we own here. >> from cannabis to crypto, it could be a safe haven. plus this dow stock falling 7% as it's caught in the trade war crosshairs and some traders are betting cetitan g worse this week we'll break it down when "fast money" returns
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welcome back shares of "fast money," check out shares of cisco. some traders see rain in the forecast and cisco reports earn little tomorrow. mike ko is in san francisco with the options action hey, mike. >> the options market is
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implyinga% for cisco, and that's about in line with the 4.5% that it's averaged over the last eight quarters in the post-earnings move and although call volume did outpace put volume on the volume, it is bearish bets outpaced bullish ones and that will be when we have put buyers and call sellers and the trade we were looking at was a purchase of the may 51 push and that included a block of 785 of those and it traded at 75 cents and the baer of those is making a bet that the post-earnings move will be to the downside and for those viewers who want to learn about why they would want to make that trade i encourage them to go to the options website and using options on cisco last friday on options action. >> first of all, when does that ever -- you've got to be kidding me. >> what? what >> he's pushing the website on a fast money hit >> why not i thought that was magic >> by the way, i will say that dan nathan, last week, i don't know when it was, but he
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mentioned that you have to be worried about cisco going with earnings and cisco went from 40 to basically 58 in a straight line and maybe it's over at ski, so i'm inclined to believe mike to the downside despite the fact that he's promoting a website. >> it happens all of the time. you should really check it out >> you can also sign up for the newsletter on the website. >> you won't miss that >> mike, thanks. mike ko in san francisco full show options action friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. bitcoin soaring to its highest level and if you're feeling a bit of fomo, one crypto bull says it's still safe to buy and get a check on the cramer cam and he's in san francisco all week and there he is talking to the adobe ceo. at the top of the hour we're live in the nasdaq overlooki overlooking times square much more fast money straight ahead.
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jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade what do advisors look for don't just track an index, help me meet a client's need. is the fund built to sell or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence.
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times have changed and the end of 2018 was rough in capital
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markets and now we're seeing volatility in tech stocks and so bitcoin is starting to look maybe not so crazy to investors. second big theme, privacy, privacy, privacy it's everywhere, big efforts on the hill especially with the new privacy regulation coming and the breakup of facebook potentially and people talking about apple and anti-trust suit and the last one is what's happening in private markets and a lot of tech ipos and the idea of the new asset class and the idea of bitcoin connecting with legacy finance is appealing to a class of investors looking for innovation and high growth >> last question because we've seen this rise in bitcoin just very recently. we know we were in this crypto winter for quite a long period of time and during that winter, was there a lot going on in the bitcoin network in terms of institutions choosing in over other networks i'm curious, does the price of bitcoin, will it still go higher or not because it seems to move independently of what is actually being built on the
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block chain. >> i think a lot of it has to do with the price of bitcoin has to correspond with the inflows into bitcoin and the more people buy it and choose to hold it the better it is for the price square, which is the primary way that investors have accessed bitcoin. let's be honest, it is friendly to investors and not so friendly to institutions, that's changing they've seen a doubling quarter over quarter, 65 million this last quarter we've seen it in the products through the crypto winter, even though the price didn't down we didn't have mostly customers and we had mostly holders. >> melton, thanks so much. >> what do you make of the bitcoin chart? >> we have to remember where we came from down 85% and up 160 and it's perfectly reasonable to take a pause and i looked at the 6500 level as a good area of support and this is about speculation and risk assets and it's probably a pretty good signal for the broader market when it's up
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>> up next, final trades
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time for the final trade tim? >> i think earnings cisco is the name that's also been beaten up, and i think they will survive this one love it. >> chris verone. >> ge. we think it goes to 15 foo consistency, oln, one more time. >> ufrp whatting the draft
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lottery tonight? >> absolutely not. >> i'll be locked in, sister. >> good for you. >> constellation brands. i'll have a drink during it, as well. >> i'm sure. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 and "ma . my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now ♪ hey, i'm cramer. welcome into "mad money. welcome to cramerica coming to you from san francisco. at the epicenter of innovation this is invest in america, defining the future.

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