you can decide for yourself whether it's legal for you to gamble on this particular thing. >> it's fas sncinating, and the other thing people are betting on is how high the ratings will be. >> i'll be the only one watching the s&p futures at 9:00. >> we have that on a separate side screen. >> i'm gunning for arc ria. >> thanks so much for joining. and that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. >> fast money does begin right now. the dragon's going to win. i am brian sullivan in forrel melissa lee. >> your traders are tim seymour, carter worth, steve grasso and guy adami. today we dig into the biggest ipo of the year, beyond meat up 250% since they debuted and the shorts are getting cooked and the analyst is here with the bull case and that's noble and we'll start on what was a wild week for the market and your money. investors buying and selling on

nearly every trade headline in the markets valiantly and futily trying to make a comeback and the conflict with iran adding to the nervousness, as well, so what is the macro market telling us, if anything, guy adami. >> yes, sir, about the trade deal and is all of this volatility, maybe, maybe, a chance to get in or get out? >> first of all, great having you here you do yeoman's work >> the hard way. >> a five and five >> i knew that >> i'll say it again, i thought the markets were low for a while and i've been wrong, but this week in a lot of ways has solidified my view 2940 in the s&p and we have a great technician, carter worth will tell you that's a pretty decent double top, and i'll say this again i think we're further away from a trade deal now than we were 15 months ago when this nonsense started. i think that's negative for the market >> do you think the market has

become callous to all of the negative headlines >> maybe, but i think that actually makes it worse that the fact that the complacency is coming in. >> doesn't it seem like -- sorry to interrupt your answer >> brexit, we had all of these headlines or more, you can make the case, but a lot of times we're selling off on these headlines and it's not grabbing a hold of the market anymore and we've only had a couple of days to digest it and it's too early to tell. is it ten times bigger. >> honestly, the amount of dollars we're talking about and even with the next round is still not that much on a $17 trillion economy >> it's the behavior of the elements and the constituents that make up the market. the market is not important. it's all defense all the time. since the september high, and the plunge in the recovery and what's leading utilities, staples and reits. what's been leading for the past 15 months since the blowoff top? defense. and nothing is changing that and

all of the cyclicality is misplaced and misguided. they're not working. >> rather than trying to look at the market over the next 15 months or where we'll be in three month, i would point to the things that happened this week and it's the second down week in a row this year and we haven't had that. >> it's the first four-week losing streak in the dow in three years. >> there are big macro stats and the things i think you should be worried about, if you look at where the chinese yuan is, and i know you're not looking at that on your chart, folks, if you look at the systemic risk up there, it's there. every time we see the yuan challenge the five-year lows or numerical, nominal terms highs and if you look at currencies, they're blowing out and down 10% in seven days and that's not a good sign. these are factors and yes, u.s. credit is holding in pretty well and the bifurcated market and you canlook at the u.s. and sa everything is okay, but -- if this is in in march and april.

>> i don't disagree with anything tim said, but the fed is on hold money is still easy. you have no sign of inflation. no sniff, no whiff of inflation and there's still a good environment so i get that there will be a headwind and we all know the headwind already. >> it's tina, not turner there is no alternative, guy. >> oh, i was wondering -- >> if we have seen that yield on the 10-year come down the way it has, does that drive people back in the stocks because the s&p yield is basically, basically that and risk seems relatively low. >> that's been true for the last seven or eight years you can't argue with that. >> i understand what steve is saying this is inflation and it's not inflation the way the fed measures it and there's inflation in all of the wrong places and not least of which asset price inflation what tim talked about and i'll take you back to august of 2015 when the chinese devalued by february of

2016, the s&p had cratered down to 1810 if we all recall and i think most of us do so i'm not suggesting we're on the precipice of that, but it is a big deal >> and it pains me to say it, but tim made a very important and cogent point on the show if we can brings on the yuan chart, and as we called it earlier this week on worldwide exchange, the soft tariff war. the devaluation and the market bazooka, if you will, tim, the fact that china doesn't talk about it it's not an express action, slap the tariffs on, but that may be another bigger threat than another 10%. >> you have the dynamic that if you read the chinese press they are saying we don't need to do anything any time soon and this is a different dynamic than what you've seen and you've seen this outspoken hey, let's get to a place where stalemate begins to unfold because that's what we can do best, and i think you have to follow bond yields and that's not a good sign and back to tina. i know guys have a favorite tina and the tina for equities is what's the multiple you want to

pay for the s&p because we've got a pretty good assessment for now where eps is going to be and let's call it between 165 and 170 if you want to drive a wide berth, and you can put a 17 multiple on that and be in trouble and put a 19 multiple on that which we have done during times like this and they're fine. >> there is no analog to the 15, 16 stimulus, and that was something that was a multiples bigger than what they're doing now and china is faltering and they're not getting that tailwind >> if the chinese yuan continues to fall and it breaks 7 to 1, is there any way u.s. stocks with move higher? >> yes, i do think they can move higher. >> still the -- i don't want to stay collapsing, but falling. >> i think the biggest scare for markets of trade and it segwayed into such a large gap between what we sell to them and what they sell to us and treasurys and that is no longer a scare

because all we've seen is yields collapse and we're creating these things and they're not existing for the market as a hurdle >> we talked about the vix a lot and they weren't what they might have been during a move like this and this is a great time to be buying protection and i was rolling down some puts that expired and frankly, very happy that the environment by the end of the week had calmed down substantially. >> let's go around the horn, and are you buying, tim, other protection for the market then >> yeah. it's overall protection and things that are highly correlated to growth or lack thereof. i'm basically short small caps and short some cyclicals for names that i would frankly like to own >> it paid off because the s&p small cap 600 down 3% and the worst by far of the index. >> guy adami >> tim, we power pitched this this on the show >> they showed you wearing the

booger shirt gummy bear green >> i was going to wear the shirt, and i wanted their full participation on monday, thursday, wednesday, thursday. i wanted full participation. health care, and to answer tim's question, my favorite tina, as you know, is louise. >> tina louise >> i bought west rock this week. i wound up -- it's been beaten down a lot and it's a duopoly with them, and i do think the stock is so expected to move higher and you get a nice yield while you wait and owen corp, as well i bought that as well. >> diversified chemicals >> that's one of the biggest makers for ammunition for guns in america. >> you would know that. >> big-time player >> it's been under pressure and it's been better than west rock has performed, but i'm buying not the leaders, the laggards in

the market like this >> my week was watching decay -- and i started the week with 2880 and naked both sides both ways. >> speak english >> you sold the calls and it can kill you on the upside and you sold the puts and you're hoping that the market closes in those things. >> options actions -- >> it's coming up. >> that's the preamble >> pream beble. >> stocks get the love and bonds is where the money plays and that beg money made plays and despite china might sell our debt to punish trump maybe the opposite happened. bonds got bought and yields tumbled and look at that, the ten-year and what's the next move for treasurys as always, carter worth heading over to the plasma to look at bonds that we don't look at a lot. >> it's a big sur ject and i'm want sure if i have the answer, but i do have ideas on the subject. we'll talk insurance stocks and

i think there's more to come and let's first look at interest rate-sensitive areas of the market here over the past year plus is the bkx index and the bulls would argue that this is some sort of -- let's get rid of that and do it this way, some sort of head and shoulders bottom this right shoulder is sort of broken and the wing is busted here and now we add all financials because banks are struggling and you've got things like american express and insurance stock and how about insurance only look at this this is -- and this big, as much are much as utilities and reits. insurance is one of my favorite areas of the market and i want to talk about that now, impervious, and they're supposed to do poorly when rates are going down and yet they're bucking the trend. just to make that point. we peaked on september 21st and we plunged on the christmas low

and the market recovered back to the high and has basically put in a double top, and the property casual tee, life health brokers up almost 4% versus the market, versus financials and versus banks that's not random. there's something going on, and now a few charts one more stat, actually and how about stocks that were positive in the insurance on the one-week basis and how many stocks were positive in the bkx index? >> one, zero, three versus 12, 14 something's going on now the charts how do you draw them this head and shoulders, bottom did stick. it did stick it is making new highs and impressive relative strength and the market does this and group straight up. three stocks in particular, metlife, so many ways to draw the line and you have the head and shoulders bottom and you have the big old cup and handle

and any way you splice it this breaks out and goes to the new high and that's life health and chubb. they'll give you insurance on your antique clocks and that kind of thing. either way, look at that beautiful. finally, a broker, marsh & mclennan look at the tension here and well-defined tops. again, up on the week and i love this area of the market and they're all very low beta. >> cbw, tremendous work as always do you think the stocks are saying the bond market's wrong or are the stocks getting ahead of themselves because as you pointed out correctly these insurance stocks should not be doing very well in an environment where they're down. >> that's inexmrekable because the bond market is likely right and these stocks would be wrong. i think they're in a rare moment where they're going to prosper regardless of the fact that rates are going lower. >> carter, great stuff, why don't you work your way back or mosey as we say, back to the

desk >> steve, tim, guy, do you like the insurance stocks >> the insurance stocks do well in a lower fund environment. that could also then equate to lower rates in terms of treasurys and also are a lower growth environment which leads certainly to more credit risk out there, but the insurance companies have covered some great charts there and this has been dead money for two years and the question is if you think this is their moment to shine, i'm not so sure. the chubb chart looks luke there's been resistance around 148 and 150 for the last couple of years and i've also been someone that things that the banks would be with the valuation and they've done nothing and they're not going to lead you and i feel comfortable doing the balance sheets they're saying notice how well american, press and i'll hide in aflac, but either way, the performance is the performance and it's hard to fight >> that is off 15% with the

yield over 3% sounds like not a bad place to hide. i think people are hiding there and they have to be allocated on that sector. >> speaking of amex and we did a segment a couple of days ago that interest rates are at all-time highs and funding costs are lower. that would seem to be money in the bank for the visas and amex. >> look at visa and mastercard and different companies from american express and the transaction companies have done very well and auto delinquencies are at a nine-year high and people want to see what great shape they're in, i don't think the it's great that the consumer is in great shape at all >> coming up, beyond meat has been beyond amazing and shares up 250% since the ipo, the only major analyst on beyond meat is here today just for you, and speaking of ipos, uber trying to gain back some of the ground it lost since going public. we'll hop a ride on that stock

and then talk about how you can make a little extra cash when you trade it as always, we are live from times square in merck city and there is so much more "fast money" right after this. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. beyond meat did something today that may be beyond belief. the stock actually fell, but shares up about 250-odd percent since the ipo and they made investors on the stock just this week let's welcome alexia howard. she joins us on the fast line. she has been right she has an $81 target. alexia, you were bullish on the name you were right and a lot of people doubted the call and are each you surprised by the aimmon of interest in the stock >> i think it's a unicorn situation where you have a lot going on in the food space and the established big food companies have been struggling for some time and here you have a pure play company that's in a very fast-growing category that's plant-based and alternative meats and the market

is growing very, very nicely and when we look at other explosive food categories like this, think about what happened with the nut-based milks when almond milk hit the market it really propelled that category interest a very fast pace for several years in a row, and i think we've got a similar situation here so it's not surprising to me that there's a lot of interest in the name because the potential over the last five, ten years. >> thank you for joining us. >> i guess my question is i don't doubt the future of alternative meats. i guess my question is why aren't kraft and some of the biggest food companies in the world going to eat their lunch and why do we pay a multiple for the company? i realize they're out first and it's a matter of time before people are essentially re-creating everything that they're doing. >> if you look at the plant-based milk market that did suffer that problem because i

can throw a few almonds into my vita mix and here i've got almond milk and so what happened in that category, what you did have a lot of private label products and a lot of smaller label brands immediately entered the market and it did cause problem, but in this situation you've got a category that's really taken the leap forward. if you think about the veggie burgers that were in the frozen part of the store or parts of the store that was shopped by vegetarians and vegans and the products are targeting meat eaters with fresh burgers and sausages and other products in the fresh meat section of the store so they're going to the omnivore and the meat-eating public with these products and they're also very difficult to make so it's not something that's easy to make like a plant-based milk it's something that these companies ha companies have spent the last few years to get taste and texture just right

we have tyson jumping into the ring later this year, but i think these pioneering products like impossible meat and there will be a lot of different categories that they can play in before the ipo from beyond meat was really the breakfast sausage which is being tested in tim horton's so if you think about the overall market there are a lot of different places that people can play >> alexia howard, bernstein, getting the call right i know you can't address it, but i'm sure the price target is under review thank you very much for joining us beyond meat. the stock's at 57 times. >> insanity. >> -- sales. >> 57 times sales. i understand it's hot, but is the stock too hot? >> it's too hot for me she brought up good points where the leaders are out there and i don't see anything that deserves this multiple. >> it's not as healthy i'm waiting for those side by

side comparisons it's loaded with preservatives and loaded with salt and you'll end up looking with a lot of these different things that you start to see that it's not as healthy as people think it is. >> you had one of those burgers on the set >> i will tell you honestly and i said it that evening i actually enjoyed it and i was shocked at how tasty it was. >> hold on >> let's put it in perspective lyft is trading at six times sales. beyond meat, 57 times sales. is there anybody at this table that would be a buyer at that stock at that price? >> you could have asked that question 50% ago when options start to tradei would look out below >> for more on wall street's obsession with "beyond meat about to trading nation.cnbc.com. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> what do you want? you want the moon? just say the word and i'll throw a lasso up and bring it down >> the crypto ballers were

waiting and it is falling after a big run. we've got the details on what went wrong plus -- >> turn the car around >> after a bumpy debut, uber shares have done a 180 and we've got a way to buy the stock with st ltle extra insurance. there's much more "fast money" right after this

as the graphic suggests, there is an alert. look at bitcoin plunging 10%, ending 8.89% and it's been an impressive wraer bitcoin rallied 20% and broke above the 8,000 level. tim seymour, i know there was a big sell order on bit stamp and they were looking into it and what were behiebd the wild swings in bitcoin?

>> all of the bitcoin folks in new york, and if you follow a trend line off of that april 4th rally where it spiked higher, you actually still are above that trend line which probably takes you up above 6800 and if you're a charter, and carter's got a view on this and the bottom line is you have a 95, nine-day rsi and for bitcoin, and that was extreme. >> and the move up and it's been five times it's gapped in the past year and all of these gaps were closed and i think you'd buy it >> let's go around the horn and time for the final trade, guys tim seymour. >> j.p. morgan is the name i go to sleep with at night right now and it's a valuation i can own. >> carter? >> chubb insurance. >> that's it >> that's the pick >> thanks. see you on the next show steve? >> lennar has been holding i said wait to buy it until it holds the $50 mark and it's held the $50 mark since april 4th and you're okay to be a buy are and

i'm still good lennar. >> man of a few word, carter sometimes less is more i appreciate you being here. 5:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m >> guy, thanks for making it easy and we're done, options action with mr. carter starts after the break. and they took my toothpaste away. and you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks. how dare you, he's my emotional support snake. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, whose tech helps you understand the risk and reward potential on an options trade it's a paste. it's not liquid or a gel. and even explore what-if scenarios. where's gate 87? don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

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hello and happy expiration friday the guys are all getting set behind us on the nasdaq and as they get ready, here's what's coming up on the big show. >> well, um, actually, a pretty nice little saturday we're going go to home depot. >> carter says home dee poe's earnings are anything but nice and when you see the pressing sell, you might just, too. plus -- uber is racing back to its ipo price and options are officially trading on the stock. mike ko will explain how to get in on the ride without the