tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC May 22, 2019 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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a retail wreck topping your top five at 5:00 big moment, feeling serious pain as they brace for higher tariffs, or is weather actually the real problem ready to talk. china's ambassador to the united statess says beijing is ready to kick start trade negotiations. that's in the market and your money to new highs countdown to the federal reserve, and that guy, the minutes from last fed meeting are out today as a rate cut or maybe a rate hike on the horizon. it is the end of the line for one of america's most iconic brands.
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sfliefrmt stock futures not giving us lot of help. dow futures down i want you to remember something. the futures lately have not been a great tell on the markets through the day. they've tended to understate some of the recent moves not saying ignore the futures, but just keep in mind they've been underplaying how things ultimately play out. watch that again today right now they're down, though, 36 on the dow. about the same percentage basis for nasdaq and s&p
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this is adding to some already serious losses from yesterday. nordstrom, by far, the beggest loser, cutting its sales and profit forecast after reporting weaker than expected first quarter results. look what happens. nordstrom chug along boom falls down it's not the only one. urban outfitters, on the other hand, now, they did beat expectations for the most recent quarter, but, as you know, guidance is what matters urban outfitters, cutting their guidance look what happened to that stock as well. another difficult sales environment there. it is not just them. you've also got to watch kohl's. trading at levels the lowest ones in more than a year they whiffed on both earnings and same store sales, and if that was not enough, kohl's also cutting its full year outlook. are you sensing a trend here and in what is happening with many of the retail names? if you cannot believe that is all that is going on, jc penney. they and their investors continue to get slammed. earnings coming in yesterday below expectations
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same store sales also a disappointment you know, normally we don't talk about stocks on cnbc with the market cap under 500 million jc penney, a different story 2.5 billion dollars in sales it is now a $1 stock the market cap a paultry 338 million dollars. what, if anything, does that retail meltdown mean for investors. the elt had of the consumer and the broader market implications of the u.s. and china trade fight, joining us now is art hogan, chief market strategist at national security five names that we just talk about. five is that a bigger market theme? really, is this time the weather to blame >> i hate to use the weather as much as you do in terms of missing a quarter, and i think that's always going to be the case department stores in general are
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fighting a pretty good battle, and they've done a lot in the last 12 to 18 months they brought in some remodeling, really doing a great job to try to fix some of the problems they have getting creative with delivery options. you don't want to go shopping when it's pouring rain outside do you think the consumer is indeed weakening this much or maybe is this a false tell for the market >> i don't think it's a very good read, and i don't think we should look at it any one quarter. if you want to look back and say home depot did better, considering what the weather looked like. >> they're buying buckets and
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mops >> macy's had a pretty good -- when you think about how much work is being done by this department store chain, and they've got more work to do, but they're actually sh rining their square footage and actually, you know, revitalizing the stores and making them more exciting experience it's just -- >> overall, let's talk now about the trade fight, the trade war, trade -- whatever you want to call it. do you see a resolution, or is the market overestimating the odds of a real fix here because both sides, you know -- there was a little bit of thaw today with the china ambassador. both sides, otherwise, art, digging in their heels >> you know, it's hard to know that on our side, the administration think that this is something they should carry into the election cycle, or is this something like to be behind them before they recycle, and i think it's the latter. i also think that this administration has shown some flexibility by not escalating on autos. i this i that's an important sign you get backed off a little bit on the huawei, and that's a good sign they have yet to escalate on the whole mcgill kwa they haven't gone after that $25
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billion. it's still kind of hanging out there as a threat. the dped continues to get dovish >> what is stronger in monetary policy or trade policy and right now monetary policy in general is probably more important to us i think with the numbers just, you know, matter much more about what the fed is doing, but i think extrapolating out to say the fed is actually going to cut this year because we're having a difficult trade war with china is not the right way to look at this if, in fact, that manifests itself if major economic data, certainly the fed could not just pivot and start to get even more >> look at the bond market 2.42 it on the ten-year. is the bond market saying the economy is slowing, or is the bond market also kind of a false
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tell because there's so much capital and so much cash out there currency reserves that countries have no place to put it but our bonds and it has nothing to do with fears of a slowdown >> 100% the latter that's the problem that is just too attractive, and it acts tracts too much capital. that's why we are where we are. this is going to be an all stock transaction. it's not immediately known the "wall street journal" says a deal has been in the works for
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>> can you watch us in hong kong, month pow kos, or wherever else vechts are shaping up their wednesday morning. we are seeing dow futures down i noticed at the top of the show, we've seen sh interesting trend where futures haven'tral reflected the way the market goes maybe that's somebody messing around with the trade in the futures. either way keep an eye iet are there. we're down 30 points at the moment in asia, get a mixed trade kind of japan was fractionally hire. when i say fractionally, i mean look at that shanghai down. the hang seng slightly higher. sill lar story in europe as
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well let us stick with europe the european union is gearing up for high stakes elections. the outcome could have a major impact on your money there as well as your money here. >> yeah, brian look, this gets really confusing. i'll take it step by step and ignore the boring bits the british disposed of having brexit already members of european parliament too. the 751 member diet, which is going to reform after july once we've had these elections. the brits are sending 73 meps. who thinks winning in the polls here and who might send the most meps to the yourp even parliament you guessed it the brexit party, which is a new party signed up by -- a lot of americans know he is the former head. he is polling at around 34%. he wants out of europe he is expected to send himself and other meps to europe so they
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can campaign to get out of europe yeah you got that in a moment, theresa may last night stunned everyone with a new compromise deal she wants to try to get through parliament. as our viewers will know, she failed on mb1. she failed a second time, and she failed a third time. this is -- will she get to do this in early june the first week she can get her vote to the british parliament is the week of the 3rd of june guess what's happening then? trump coming over as well.
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>> the parties get to straussberg and brussels because i forgot to say, there are two partly imts. yeah the french and belgiums can work out where to put it. they put one in brussels, and they've got one in straussberg, and they jet set between the two as well. anyway, you get these meps there representing all the smaller parties, and what do they do the recoalition and center left coalition. this is where she gets really interesting from a populist point of view very fraying menned you have the hard left and hard right, who are seen across europe doing pretty well in these electrics. it could be a real -- >> it's no wonder they can't get anything done. you put five republicans and five democrats here in a room together they couldn't tell you if the dress was blue or black or white
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and gold as well steve sedgwick, keep us informed and always leave out the boring bits steve, thank you very much >> let's switch gears now to china. we've got three big trade headlines on your radar. we're going to call it the trade trifecta what else? first, china's ambassador to the united states says beijing is ready to restart trade talks in the meantime, a new survey finds that roughly 75% of u.s. companies operating in china have been hurt in some way by tariffs. new this morning, the u.s. considering black listing another company over security concerns that company killed -- eunice yoon for once getting off the trade beat to talk about outer space. literally. eunice >> yeah. that's right
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not on the trade beat, but i'm still a tech war beat. you know, the tech war isn't only limited to planet earth, but china wants to also dominate the final frontier around the time when beijing unveiled its made in china 2025 tech development program when the government also introduced a policy to try to get more private investment into space activity this is a realm that has been larnlly dominated by the military, but because of that, that sparked a wave of space start-ups, like the one i'm in right now. this one is called link space, and the founders hope to create a link to space, and they are focused very much on reusable rockets. these are rockets that go back and forth in theory into space in order to try to bring the overall cost of each trip down also they're working on another rocket that they hope to get
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>> still on deck here, trump, pelosi, schumer all meeting at the white house later today until a very possible, possible, $2 trillion infrastructure plan. then, incredible video from plerk's heartland. massive storms continue to threaten millions of tornadoes and flooding scary stuff. the ai i want? well, insurance it's all about trust and speed. i need it to guide this analyst to customize flood coverage for this house. so that this team, can inform this couple,
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including retail, housing, and data storage first off, retail. nordstrom cutting its profit and sales forecast for the year, and that stock is being slammed. at about 9 periods. shares are down right now 3.5% because the home build says stalz will be -- margens will be squiezed a bit by lower demand and rising incentives. finally, says data storage has got to be your disaster due juror. pure storage is down 19.5% right now. the company reporting a.
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>> the nation's top two democrats this morning it's the second meeting on a $2 trillion infrastructure plan to fix up roads, power grids, and include broadband internet construction talk quickly gives way to obstruction investigations prompted by special counsel robert mueller's russia report. >> witnesses must show up. our subpoenas are not optional >> the president ordered ex-white house council to snub a meeting on tuesday democrats have issued two new subpoenas for hope hicks, the
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president's former communications director, and annie donaldson, mcbegan's former chief of staff. the no show is a breaking point for those frustrated by the president ae tonewalling >> yes, there was an impeachment card >> it's increasing the pressure on house speaker nancy pelosi to begin impeachment proceedings. >> others saying there is no purpose of a subpoena. well, under the constitution, one of the purposes would be to see if we want to go down the path of impeachment. the other purposes as well >>it will likely be a lot of
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talk let's talk about impeachment thank you very much. >> okay. >> another day v.c francis rivera in new york with that france sis >> good morning to you yeah, it's been a rough one especially across oklahoma many people urgently packing up this morning trying to get out of harm's way as flash flooding continues. lawsuits of central harassment the 25 charges involve alleged incidents at restaurants and corporate offices across cities. 16 years old claim that they face harassing behavior. several shared their stories a
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woman in a stolen rv led police on a high speed chase in southern california. the driver barrelled through intersections running red lights she had two dogs in that vehicle. one of them jumped out easier toco with the gaping hole you see on the passenger side. then it goes through the overpass t-bones a black car swerving through another intersection this is how it ends. after it slams into a white car and then crashes into a true the woman was arrested. >> why your next guest said the trade war is actually becoming more of a tech war, and investors need to be careful, but maybe not the reason you think. >> plus, one of america's cookies is now caught up in
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favorite cookies isn't immune to politics and the wrath of the twitter-verse. snoelt you got to keep your head up ♪ ♪ you can let your hair down ♪ you got to keep your head up >> thanks for watching worldwide exchange i'm brian sullivan here's how your money and vefrms look right now we're halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour. stock futures are, like i said, knee been trying -- this has been a trend every day, folks. we come in futures are down then they start to turn around i'm simply saying they haven't been ae great indicator. we are mildly higher across the board. remember also at 5:00 a.m., they're very thinly traded a couple of guys to place an order. they can move the markets. you like that? >> i'm watching and learning >> don't do this in the bond market we're seeing
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benchmark ten-year yields at 2.42%. a lot of money out there it needs a home, and they have been big bonds the'sian markets, mixed trade. we saw japan fractionally higher hong kong up, shanghai down wrash similar story. a little bit of red. a little bit of green. now it's all green it's like the italian flag now it's just green. let's talk about the markets and your money and why the trade war may be more of a tech war, and it could have a big impact on your money the global investment strategist at principal global investors joining us from london we talk so much about sales. are they going to sell more to us or do we sell more to them, et cetera? you believe that technology earnings may really be the macromarket story here how come?
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now, because of the gloelk supply chains, it does mean that u.s. firms supply a lot of the components that go into chinese technology you not only have an issue growing with the chinese tech firms given the export controls that you put on, for example, huawei, but we will also have continued impact on u.s. technology firms as well now, if you consider thor the last ten years there's a financial crisis, technology has really been the key driver of equity markets if you have an issue, whether technology is really strug lipg because of the trade war, it's going to be an issue for the overall equity market as well.
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>> this can be quite significant. away we'll be watching for is the next few quarters is going to be the guidance company guidance we can be hearing that companies are struggling, for example, to sell in china. potentially for weak eing demand or because of the difficulty of actually getting their products to china. >> i would expect the equity market to rally quite strongly however, in the background i think the technology have problems and will continue
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unless china is able to completely change all of the structure plans with regard to technology, this is going to be a continued problem going on in the background with u.s. and china. >> even if we get a deal that is signed, this has been a wake-up call to u.s. and chinese technology firms both, is it not? business is not just going to go back to the way -- oh, everything is fine now let's keep doing it. no, no, no supply chains are going to move. you have the u.s. banning huawei, and now another company thorng from china. its not back to the way it was the tariff war to trade war to tech war is key. we could satisfy step back into tariffs. that's possible.
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>> given that back drop, given what you just teeld, you what shuds our viewers around the world watching cnbc right now do with their money sell out of technology >> i think there has to be some caution with regards to technology i think it's very early days to sell out of technology, and one of the reasons for this is what we have seen in the last week or so is it may be that the trump administration has got a level of a pain threshold with equity markets. you see the equity markets fall around 45%.
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you could see a slight lift up in terk. squlo the terk war or trade war. great headline see you soon thank you very much. >> let's find out what esnow that you are going to be talking about on this fine wednesday morning. it is time for your trending stories and frank holland is back with these. frank. >> brian, me and you reunited. doing a little of this and and hand gestures. i like it. loitsz get right down to trending housing and urban development secretary ben carson got confused yesterday being questioned by katie porter, and maybe just a little bit hungry take a look. jo i would like you to explain the edition part in reo rates. >> oreo? >> not an oreo reo. reo. >> real estate -- >> what's the o stand for? >> organization.
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>> reo is a common term meaning real estate organization, but carson leaned into his mishap tweeting afterwards that he was enjoying some post half hearing snaks and sending agency package of oreo cookies to representative porter. oreo's official twitter account got in on it and saying oreo stands for really excellent oreo cookee >> a slip of the tongue. >> it laps sometimes >> some bad news on the horizon for some finance world war iers. one in five finance jobs will be lost to automation over the neck decade that's according to a new forecast for a consultantsy firm it predicts that over 400,000 positions will be eliminate bid 2030 as computer efficiency improves you know, people have to know this is coming there are already different program to make trade in different things clearly not a shot >> that story is -- >> it's a slam here's one that's just on time
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robo robots they're not just coming for your job, but they're come to your house. ajust a minute robotics will produce two-legged robots to deliver things right to your front door >> look at that video. they don't have to use the bathroom i'm told >> do your delivery guys have to come in. this video basically, like, the terminator's early model delivering a package to a doorstep >> looks like a robotic raptor from jurassic park i don't think it's -- college students need to be afraid the pizza delivery job >> possibly. >> it will create other jobs humans are good at finding stuff
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for them to do >> thank you very much >> skyrocketing this morning on reports of a possible takeover one investor maybe set to make a boatload of money if it goes through. >> avon hit a lowest price since republican 1946 at $1.37 in the summer we started buying it then. >> legendary investor bill miller's full comments when we come back. what happened to the real men of america?
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we have big potential deal news for you and one of america's most storied names brazilian company reportedly nearing a deal to buy avon according to reports, this would be an all stock transaction. the price still unknown or not being told it's up big on the news at 23% pop this morning if you remember back on january 31st we sat down with legendary investor bill miller, and he predicted big things >> avon hit a 46 -- hit its lowest price since it became public in 1946. it's an an emerging market strategy i think it's correct
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they announced yesterday 15% inventory reduction and another cut. a couple hundred million of free cash flow. >> yeah. stock is not only soared when he said that, but it's up 60% since after that interview calling it emerging markets play. bill miller, vej legendary investor for our reasonable. absolutely nailing it. switching goers. let's talk rates and reets one of the big ereets, real estate investment trusts is call the vnq. a lot of letters it's been up lately. up 17% this year alone joining us now to talk about this and et health of the industry is cal ven, senior vice preside president. calvin, welcome. tlds been a lot of talk about potential privatization of fannie and freddy. hedge funds that are watching right now. these are big positions. do you think they should be privateized? >> you know, fannie mae and
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freddie mac are really important in our market -- in our mortgage markets and our global financial system we need to have some resolution of crisis. i don't know what's going to work out, but it's important that they're capitalize is and they continue to operate funding u.s. housing markets >> is it better -- would they be better capitalized the way they are or if they're private? without having an opinion, what would be a better capitalization structure? >> the biggest problem over a decade ago was not the mortgages that they guaranteed, but it was the private and sub-prime mortgages that came from outside of the gsc universe. nigs that passes their credit standards that is well funded is probably going to be good for the u.s. housing market. >> they got stuck with it as well >> all right the aqr, which is wufrt -- or the nq, one of the biggest etfs following reits out there. i don't want to say it's on fire up 17% this year from your 30,000 square foot perch, the commercial real estate market, is it really that
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solid right now? >> it slowed a bit we've seen it across a bunch of areas. we did see reit earnings growth slowed to -- reit earnings up 15.9 billion in the first quarter. just cover those results recently that's 2% a year ago which contrasts to 5%, to 7% growth. it's a bit a refuse unl from the trade war that are affecting the broader market >> why is that >> the reits aren't dependent on imports and exports. they're looking at leases on domestic properties. they're benefitting from really domestic business, domestic cash flows, and those are stable. >> they are dependent on companies to sign leases if companies aren't sure of their business prospects, they may be less or more hesitant to sign a longer deal
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there are loofr companies that radio r reluctant to sign that five-year lease, ten-year lease. we did see softening in the growth the first quarter a number of earnings measures. fundamentally the basis is still quite solid for real estate. >> lennar had its numbers out, and the guidance was not great stocks down just a little bit this morning overall single family home companies and the reets that encompass them they do billion. the best in all the subuniverses of reits why is that? >> the sing haem home rental sector of reits has done quite well we have a lot of demand for housing and rental housing >> the rental sector >> the reits are providing a lot of the rental homes for families that might not be able to buy or might not want to buy.
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you knew exactly what was going to happen. i'm going to try to follow along at home here on the screen and see if i can figure this out i've got a two-year clart from your notes of the s&p 500, and the one thing that we're looking at is this recent peak year back in april, and your fear, if i'm reading your notes right, is that because we were not able to rally off what is effectively the third peak, trying a new high on the s&p, but that was a negative technical sign. yes or no? >> brooirn, you are spot on correct here this morning. exactly the note, is this a real estate legal rally or something more we've stuck with our 27, 25-year-end objective. when you come back to the chart, you can see a look at what we're seeing with rsi and indicators, divergences and how many stocks are in our indicators above their 200 day moving averages. what we're seeing is really these nonconfirmations
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you are seeing this market trying to break out on less participation. that is a bad thing. you saw the exact same thing happen or try to happen back in september, and we know how kwr4 finished up. you saw the exact same thing kind of happen in january of 2018, and so this is a third time i guess to me a third time is a charm, and i'm not saying that the secular bull market is over, but i do think that the market is right before a longer and a more protracted pullback in correction from the levels of where we're at right now again, for us year-end 2725. advisory we're at 2,864. you see the market continuing down from here when you say third time is the charm, you don't mean a charm in a good way because this failure that you are talking about here
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>> you have your foot shoulders and generals when the generals are the food soldiers both on the field all moving in the same direction, that is good for the actual battle for the market to move higher when the foot soldiers pull back and the generals are left on the field, that's typically not a very good sign for the overall battle from my perspective, i look at what we're seeing right now, and our longer term indicator, brian, that we talked about on this show, multiple times over the last year, are 40-week technique. again, measuring how many stocks are above the 200 day. this is getting very close to actually flipping into a sell signal potentially in the next couple of weeks.
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>> this is shorter term chart of the qqq, but it's had a real soft rollover since the middle of april we haven't had a collapse in technology, craig, but it's kind of like there's a longer term chart. let me adjust here if i can. again, that failure to make out new highs from our highs look to be even more pronounced on the technology side. >> that is definitely had challenges with some of the
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larger cap names in the space coming under pressure. technology, put that together, and it's starting to weaken. you put health care also financials together. just those last two, financial and health care, you get close to it by the third of the overall market capitalization. from my perspective, i need to see broader participation to get more excited about the taping here i'm looking forward. >> leave us with a little reason to smile this morning. nice midwestern guy. where do you see opportunity what looks undervalued or underpriced? >> where i see some of the opportunities coming into play is if i look at some of the names that are, like, visa, continue to look constructive from our perspective if i look at stocks like moody's, they still look constructive on the charts again, one negative stock, i got to point out, though, brian is when i comback and look at wells fargo wrrks that looks like classic head and shoulder top in the making two positives. one negative >> we like it. moody's and visa may be looking good technically
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overall 2725 on the s&p 500. craig johnson have a great day talk to you soon thank you very much. now, craig is a big hockey guy he might like this rbi, because it's not about baseball. it's about hockey this morning the st. louis blues boating the san jose sharks last night to advance to the stanley cup finals blues took a lead early in the first period they never looked back they trounced the sharks 5-1 the blues will now play the boston bruins for the stanley cup, which brings us to your rbi. the last time the st. louis blues made the stanley cup finals was all the way back in 19 -- look at that no helmets the goalies just wearing are a face mask. one of the most famous goals for bobby orr ever that was 1970. the blues in 49 yoerz haven't he made the finals. now that they go back, they're going to play the boston bruins. the same team they played the last time they made the finals back in 1970 random, but hopefully
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>> welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures you have to see that things are relatively flat. this comes after an update for the markets yesterday morning. you did see big gains that came. you can see all of the gains we saw yesterday. there are changes in the policy with huawei, and some of the weaker policies actually making people think that there's more hope than trade talks ahead. ha. s&p futures by less than a point, and the nasdaq off by 7 lerts ta let's take a look at what happened in asia you can see that the nikkei was flat, closed by less than a tent
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