in tech because that has been an area outperforming on a year to date business so if some of the favorites of growth are being punished as well it could be in the latter phase of the selloff. >> communication services still up 10% for the year. >> we are out of time for today's show thanks for tuning in closing bell we're out of time. >> "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee, we have tim, brian, dan, and guy. tonight, stocks are stuck in the danger zone as yields sink to new lows, but a top strategist says don't worry the fed is coming to the rescue and a rate cut could be coming as soon as this month plus, tesla sinking to more a three-year low as the electric vehicle maker hits roadblock after roadblock but the chart master says the stock is to bad it's good. we start off with what look like big tech's day of reckoning as

the nasdaq enters correction check out the carnage, the biggest names in the market are facing antitrust oversight from the government, facebook getting hit the hardest, having its worse day since july of last year amazon, alphabet, apple, all under pressure so, is this the beginning of the end for big tech as we know it and what does this mean for the markets, guy i we >> i think it might be closer to the end for big tech a lot of these stocks have come off significantly. google, i power pitched it while ago but i'll say this. we mentioned facebook 165, look where it closed today and look at the volume that it traded now, facebook is basically a 50% correction of the december 24th low in a recent high so that sets up well given the volume we've seen today but i still think the s&p 500 has another 3.5% or 4% 2650 is the level we've been talking about. now you're starting to hear other voices saying that i think that's a logical place to go. i think some of these big tech names can go sideways in the interim so i think the worst might be over for those names.

the worst isn't over for the broader market >> but the worst, we don't know what the worst is, and i think that's the problem >> right and the problem with this is that part of the bullish thesis here is you have a president who is the stock market president. what he cares about is how high the stock market goes. this type of action where you start bringing government action against public companies, that has to -- you have to question whether or not he's the stock market president anymore, at least that thesis comes into question so i think it's a little bit broader than just the tech sector. i understand they were the easy target and the first target for obvious reasons but it honestly could go a little bit further than that. that's what has everybody concerned. >> there's no way he is not the stock market president so i think ultimately it gets down to a place where there is some political agenda that has to go through. i'm not sure this is exactly his agenda, frankly but if you think about the pressure or lack thereof that mega cap tech has had from this administration, vis-a-vis what they've seen around the world, google's been in detention for a long time, i mean, they've been called into the principal's office for the

last 15 years. that used to be the story of microsoft's life by the way, you know, and i bet dan would point this out, one of the most troubling things about today's move was microsoft lost its mojo it's back now through the 50 day, it's first time it's traded there for a listening time and microsoft outperformed the s&p by about 16% in the last 75 sessions it was the place where people were hiding out safe and so right now, we knew that there was reason for concern in those other names and now we've got another one. >> i agree i think that's actually really important that microsoft caught some steam throughout the day, closed at about 3% and that presidential news didn't help. apple was showing relatively good strength. when you think about these mega cap techs we know that facebook and amazon did not make new highs, we know that apple didn't make new highs, google closed at an all time high before they announced their q1 earnings earlier, about two months ago and then it just, you know, it's been down 20% in the straight line so there's a lot of things

going on there i'll just mention this the inconsistency with which we are fighting a trade war with china, this is about tech, we understand the fact there wasn't going to be a trade deal that just focused on the trade deficit with china that would have been suitable long-term it's about ip theft and ultimately 5g so if you're going to turn your sights on to our domestic behemoths which are global behemoths, maybe not in china it doesn't seem that consistent with trying to win this fight with china. it puts our guys at a disadvantage right now >> it's a pile on to everything else now all of a sudden we've got india who are going to have tariffs against mexico last week, now we've got the doj coming after some of our larger companies, thes just not a friendly environment for american business, which is not a friendly environment for the stock market so, while we may or may not think that -- i mean, trump may come out with a tweet, we don't know that but at some point, as guy's mentioned, the half-life of his tweets becomes very small. >> we've got tariffs on all

sides, multifront trade war going on, potential global economic slowdown, potential backlash in china, a bitcooycot products here and then we have tariffs slapped on the most important sector of our stock market >> it's interesting. >> and you have to wonder if the move in apple is somehow related to this. i think it probably is and large degree, related entirely to this you know, and again, i'm not an expert in these things but what if you wake up one day and the chinese government says that's it, no more apple products, find some place else. i'm not suggesting it's trading like that but the move to 175 has been pretty stark. >> i think apple might as well be a semiconductor right now they've been in lock step, the move there and we have to separate the two you're all right, we've added a new ingredient today in terms of doj probes, what does this mean but to be clear, you know, the momentum for this and they're, look, there's -- there is a constituency that makes sense to this administration that they are fighting for in these probes and there's been a lot of people

for a long time that have said that basically amazon is putting businesses, you know, they have had any competitive practices, how should we say, for a long time this is popular in some corners of this country. >> it's not just this administration, though i mean, this is a bipartisan issue. i mean, i think that's the real problem with it. these companies are potentially facing an existential threat to their business models from both sides of the aisle >> mel, it's not even a political issue. what happened yesterday with google's cloud offering, it was down for four hours in parts of america and there was lots of business disruption. there was lots of disruption to a lot of different services so i think there's little doubt on either side of the aisle that these businesses like aws or google's cloud business or microsoft's azure, these are utilities. they need to be regulated as such because we live now in an age where if they go down, there is massive disruption to some really critical functions in our society. so, i think that's happening i think the other issue is, though -- >> sorry weren't you talking about that in the context of this is another greeingredient in a tra

war that makes no sense. >> there's certain parts of it that make a lot of sense when you see that disruption yesterday, you say to yourself we're going to let these people out in silicon valley handle all the responsibility that all of this -- >> it's the case for a moe notary publ nota monopoly >> i think we can agree this should be regulated not in a way that i think is -- like makes these companies less competitive but makes it safe for all of these businesses that rely on those utilities that they have >> let's use that example since you brought up google and the concentration in terms of cloud and emails, et cetera. what's the remedy to that? you break up the company somehow and if you -- if breaking up companies is on the table with any of these probes into any of these tech giants, who gets hit the hardest? whose business can actually withstand being broken up? >> right and what are the ramifications >> all of the -- >> all of them >> wait. wait, wait for apple, let's say, services

and hardware, it's a fly wheel business one fed off the other. can you separate them? >> broken up four years ago, apple's not going to be broken up now but if you can make the argument that a enterprise facing business that's so mission critical, aws, azure for microsoft, google's cloud offering, you could say those should be stand alone businesses, they will be valued higher than the businesses are right now. >> you know, should we be factoring in as a worst case scenario a break-up of these companies or is that too far off. >> no, i think some probability has to be factored in and that's what the market's doing today and yes, i may be -- maybe it's going to be marked higher but the problem is you don't know. a lot of these businesses are valued on network effect they all talk about their platform and how they can use that to get customers and if you now break them apart they no longer have that so you have to reprice that in the market doesn't mean people are going out of business or anything like that it means the market has to reprice these companies. >> i think we're so far from breaking these companies up, however, and i think -- i don't want to be jaded because on some level i do want to believe that

regulators are looking at the issues that are making it -- there's -- the irony is that they may be stifling innovation. these are supposedly the biggest innovators in the world and there's a lot of people out there that say, hey, we need to do something so, i don't think anything's happening in the short-term. i think these are headlines, i think they're scary headlines and i think they're appropriate headlines vis-a-vis what's gone on with privacy issues and national security issues, people are looking for blood somewhere but do you really think we're going to break up these companies in the next few amongst months i do not >> i think it's interesting, though, you mentioned microsoft. i think microsoft is a function of the market finally looked at microsoft at 25.5, 26 times forward earnings and said, you know what? maybe we should start taking profits here in a company whose multiple has not mattered. that comes want heels of workday and dan mentioned this a couple weeks ago, that stock got smoked today and obviously sales force hasn't performed plafrl well so if the market's looking at companies with valuations that might not be reasonable. to answer your question, quickly, if they were to godow

the route of breaking up the companies, i think that's catastrophic for the broader market >> all right can i just make one point? this is stock market right here so we're ending q2 in just a few weeks and then we're going to have earnings and we're going to have guidance and what this does is it adds a heck of a lot a uncertainty to the back half guidance of the year, we're going to go into the end of the year, quarter, without any trade deal whatsoever, if there are more tariffs like he threatened last week of some of our friends and we don't have a nafta 2.0 then the second half, earnings are probably too high. and they need to come down and guidance will reflect that so to guy's point, can we see 2650 in the next few weeks >> news alert here out of d.c. about these tech antitrust concerns let's get to eamon javers for the latest. >> reporter: we're now getting a press release from the house judiciary committee announcing that they're going to be doing a bipartisan investigation int big tech companies the judiciary committee saying this is a bipartisan investigation into competition

in digital markets what's interesting about this press release is it quotes both democrats and republicans which is something we've gotten away from a little bit in washington, d.c. they're saying they want to look into three main areas of the tech industry. they say they want to look at documenting competition problems and digital markets, examining whether dominant firms are engaging in anti-competitive conduct and also assessing whether existing antitrust laws, competition policies and current enforcement levels are adequate to address these issues. so a lot there for the judiciary committee to dig its teeth into under chairman jerry nadeller b also some of the republican members of the committee as well so that adds to some of the scrutiny in washington for some of these big tech giants that you guys have been talking about over at the department of justice. now, the house judiciary committee saying it's going to get in on the action as well >> is there any or the of invitation list, eamon >> we don't have it just yet what we have is the committee saying they're going to have a series of hearings held by the

subcommittee of antitrust and they say that they're going to focus on the rise of market power on the line as well as requests for information that are relevant to the investigation so presumably these tech companies will be getting letters from the committee very soon if they haven't already gotten them already. >> thank you aym eamon javers in washington we're going to have moments where these guys are going to be up on the hill >> it's the best thing you could hope for if you're a tech investor, because more often than not by the time the ceos get up on the hill the stock's already sold off, everything's priced into the news, that's the climax of the news >> we're going to have carter on to talk about charts but there's negativity here that doesn't go away so i'll leave the charts. we haven't talked about amazon enough if there's one company that to me has a target on their bag in terms of putting businesses out and wrecking a lot of the fabric of small business in this country, by the way, i love amazon, i use it every single day, but i do think amazon's the biggest poster child and if you

look at this stock, this is a stock that's now basically getting back to 1,600, a stock with a -- it's almost a downward sloping 200 day which means the long-term average on this company means it's been slowly moving this way for a long time and amazon to me if there's one company that would be caught in the cross hairs, this is the one that they're talking about on the hill >> very interesting. and major double top now on amazon, we talked about it when they reported earnings but for that comment about next day delivery, that stock would have gone down a lot faster now it's making up for lost ground i'm with tim on this one >> it's not just tech in turmoil. the s&p 500 sinking below 2,800 but one top strategist says help is on the way in the form of a surprise rate cut. we've got the details. plus speaking of needing help, tesla sinking to its lowest level in more than three years but the chart master says this stock is so bad it's looking good he'll tell you what has him pressing the buy button. and boeing's ceo speaking to phil lebeau about when he expects the boeing 737 max to be

back in action we're live from times square in new york city. much more after this

in these turbulent times, do you focus on today's headwinds? or plan for tomorrow? at kpmg, we believe success requires both. with our broad range of services and industry expertise, kpmg can help you anticipate tomorrow and deliver today. kpmg

chloe, why is there a lamp shade on your head? shhh. my owner might have given me a little bit of catnip. uh. [ laughing ] that's great. listen... it is great, gidget. everything is grand. [ meow ] [ purring ] [ growl ] are you finished? [ cooing ] that was weird. oh sister it's going to get way weirder. welcome back to "fast money," tesla's shares careening, this despite continued assurances from elon musk that demand for tesla vehicles remains high and the vehicle maker will still meet its steep production and delivery goals but now with the shares down 46% this year, hitting its lowest level in over 3 years, our next guest says charts of tesla are

actually looking so bad that now is your chance to buy. chart master carter is over to tell us why tesla is about to do a u-turn >> well, interestingly, in a very bad day, it's very rare if you have a down tape for tesla to actually outperform amazon, outperform facebook, outperform salesforce.com and so forth so a high beta stock that was down but it's down almost so much at this point that i think a contrarian call is the thing to do for starters, it's hated on the street, 11 buys, 10 holds and 15 sells. remember, holds are sells because nobody typically gives this already, hold means wink, wink for sell but we don't want to offend the banking department so what you have is basically sells all over the place and very few buys. let's look at a few stats and a few over things. it's all over the place, right the street high is 530 the street low is 55 the consensus is 276 the stock closed today at 178 so it's the wild west in that sense and it's in many ways anybody's

guess but what we do know is that it is a high beta trade and it typically overshoots and undershoots the market and just as you had a fairly big overshoot here, at this point i think we've undershot by such an amount that actually it's so bad it's good. a couple ways to maybe make that point, so bad it's good. one, it is right back to a prior low and in fact, if you take a look where this is, it is exactly to the penny at its 2016 low. right there. and the issue is does that hold and that's on an absolute basis. how about relative compared to 2016 to the market much worse so, here is that same chart and we're going to look at the percentage you're below your 150-day moving average and keep this in mind, i'm going to pull it back a little further and then i'm going to pull it back even further so we are where we were in '16 but we're actually getting down to a low that was seen only one other time in history. how far below trend it has ever

been since its ipo, here is the all data chart this is literally the lowest point it has ever been and i think you've got a situation of so bad it's good i want to make the bet that tesla actually is a time if you're short to be covering and to being small speculative longs. >> carter, come on over. >> bring him in. >> evan will bring the chair over >> while evan's coming over, he can finish setting in a brooklyn marathon >> how you guys doing. >> that's why the chair comes over so quickly. >> lickety split >> all right, so, carter, let's just say it breaks this level. is that catastrophic for the stock, then? >> it's not any particular big level, meaning we know the stock had well defined tops at a common level for the past, let's say, three years at sort of 290, it's down to 175, which is fairly well defined lows even -- let's just say this. let's say for fun it's not going to stop at 175, it's on its way to 57. the path lower presumptively passes through a higher price

meaning an oversold condition, however you want to characterize it is at hand and i think at a minimum, you'd want to be covering some shorts and speculative -- >> did you cover your short? >> i'm actually rolling down puts right now which i think makes sense considering the volatility in the stock and i did that today, went from 175 down to 125s and carter's work on the technical side is always great and technicals are a read but the story here is about fundamentals, and to me, if you think -- >> there are no fundamentals >> i'm sorry >> there are no fundamentals >> okay. so, spoken as a chartist there are no fundamentals but ultimately -- >> they have no profits so what are the fundamentals it's just a dream. no fundamentals, no valuation, no price to book, what is that it's a guy with a tent who makes cars in a tent >> sounds like he's talking to my book right now. i agree with that. my point, though, is an oversold condition, by the way, tesla's not as oversold as fedex, gm, nvidia, they are actually more oversold than tesla is but to me, that is kind of the point. i think that the fundamentals right now are a case are demand is truly being questioned, some

of the biggest analysts on the street like adam jonas have basically referred to this as a restructuring story which means there's a lot of restructuring to go. >> it's just like any other stock. there are a lot of people who like it long i think we've all liked it short but this is the point where i think you want to take the road less traveled. >> if you get that bounce because it's just, to your point, it might be an oversold bounce so where does it find massive resistance, where is the breakdown. >> this is a fast money show, option action, it's all about finding trades and making money if we can. the point here is to try to catch something that is oversold for, what, could it be 6%, 4%, 12% but you want to be quick as you're paid to take the risk to gamble on a speculative stock in an oversold condition >> when you said this is a company with no fundamentals >> what are the fundamentals there is no cfa. there's no cfa >> does that -- is the implication that technical analysis is more accurate in these sorts of cases where the

company doesn't have profits, where there isn't price to book. >> you wonder about that you say it might have its error rate too and yet there's not a single person -- how could you have well trained people, some believe it's worth 500, some believe it's 50. that tells you there's a problem of the fundamentals side so all we can do is make a judgment that it's maybe oversold or one could say i want to double my short and really press in. that's perfectly valid too but i think you have to make your calls here based on charts and price action, nothing else >> carter, thank you >> thanks, guys. >> guy -- >> my favorite is when carter says in the middle of a sentence, please it's just -- it's like -- >> very polite >> isn't it adorable not to take any umbrage with what carter said but if you go back to fep of 2016 right after the turn of the new year this stock traded down about 151 or so before the s&p exploded you have a 1,810 so i hear what he's saying but good for tim and i think there is a shot now that 150 is in the cross hairs. >> yeah, for me, i'd be looking

for 150 and big volume that's what you want to see. to me, i haven't seen a capitulation day in this yet but i am looking for something for that rebound >> and i want to say, to the point, i think if you caught carter's "fast money" trade and it got back to 250, that would be the level of the century to lay out shorts especially if you're as bearish on the fundamentals as tim is >> for more on what wall street is saying about tesla, head over to cnbc.com. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc here's what else is coming up on fast kwoez ♪ highway to the danger zone >> that's right. stocks are in the danger zone as yields sink to fresh lows. but one top strategist says don't worry, help is on the way. he'll be here to explain why plus >> have you had a single order for the max yet since the grounding? >> no. >> boeing ceo dennis muilenburg facing the fallout but you won't belief when he said the planes 'll ar a ainheirga wehe from him later this

hour there's much more "fast money" right after this thanks to you, we will. aw, stop. this is why voya helps reach today's goals... ...all while helping you to and through retirement. um, you guys are just going for a week, right? yeah! that's right. can you help with these? oh... um, we're more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help... sorry, little paws, so. but have fun! send a postcard! voya. helping you to and through retirement.

welcome back to "fast money. stocks in the danger zone, sinking well below that key 2,800 level as the ten year yield falls to fresh lows. let's get to bob pisani at the new york sterock exchange with more on this >> hello, melissa. key growth stocks are really getting hit today as the market has come to believe that trade tensions between the u.s. and china plus new tariffs on mexico may be a permanent part of the investment landscape this year just take a look twitter, adobe, mastercard, paypal, microsoft, all down notably today. meanwhile, more value oriented names, those with slower growth prospects, they were all up. retailers like target, steel names like nucor, textron, campbell's and kimberly clark all up today firms are cutting their earnings estimates for this year. that's a problem and next year as well. bank of america did it today they cut their 2019 earning estimates for the s&p 500 from $168 to $166 that's a 1.2% decline. and from $180 to $176 for 2020

that's a nearly 3% reduction strategists see three big problems right now first, traders were pricing in an upturn in the earnings situation in the second half, not a downturn but those chances are now diminishing. you saw what happened today with bank of america. traders are coming believe these trade deals may never be settled, the trafr threats are remaining a constant part of the investment landscape and finally there's a tougher regulatory climate for big tech names like google, amazon, and facebook now, where does this fed stand on all this, the st. louis federal reserve president, jim bullard said there is a case for the rate cut even without the trade situation. many now believe the fed will cut rates at least three times this year to reflect the lower growth outlook little wonder that the s&p is back to the same level of january 2018 we're below 2,800. by the way, that 2,800 level has been key support the s&p 500 has meant both

support, in fact, resistance as well at this level quite a few times since early 2018 back to you, melissa >> all right, bob, thank you bob pisani well, expectations rise for the federal reserve to cut rates, our next guest says we could see fed action as early as this month. let's bring in tony dwyre, chief market strategist. welcome back good to see you. >> great to be here, mel thanks for having me >> what has to happen, broadly, in order for the fed to consider cutting rates this month >> for the life of me, i can't understand why they haven't yet, not because there's this catastrophic -- sorry to use your word, guy -- this catastrophic economic development pending. they made a mistake in the kwourt quarter everybody on the planet says they made a mistake on the fourth quarter op-eds were written about the mistake before they made it in the fourth quarter so the cut that i've been looking for since january isn't because there's this economic catastrophe, of course there's going to be a slowdown, you had rates go up and almost inverted the yield curve next year, but the bottom

line is it's about inflation the whole reason that they were tighti tightening was fear of labor inflation and core cpu, the five year inflation breaks are going lower. if you looked at a chart, you could be a political science major like me and see that inflation's low on the chart and going lower. there's no sign of a pickup in it so, let's fix the mistake is what i'm talking about >> just -- it's just undoing what was done in the fourth quarter but you think that this -- this may not be the only rate cut this year >> correct >> it's at least one this year >> i mean, you guys are probably sick of it the viewers are probably sick of me talking about the 1995 analog but again you had almost negative growth in fact first two quarters because of all the rate hikes in 1994 you had a trade war pending with japan where you were going to put 100% tariffs on the top 13 japanese car, they were as big to the global economy as china is today and then of course you almost inverted the yield curve.

what happened? the market rates came down so hard that it forced the fed to cut rates to avoid a true inversion of the 210 curve >> so tony, do you worry if we have a cut, i think fed funds futures are price, 38% chance of a cut, are you worried that it sets off a dovish tilt across the globe and we are just -- get locked into, with eknow how much of sovereign debt is in negative yielding territory, could it be the start of something not good for risk assets? >> dan, i would make the case that the long end will go up on expectations of a rate cut look what happened today you had a risk on trade and you resteepened -- you're steepening the 210 curve which is what drives shadow banking. all the lbos, the mna, the hedge fund lending, all the nontraditional bank lending known as shadow banking is going bananas and you're resteepening the 210 yield curve. that showed up today in the cyclical sectors and industrials

ripped where the growth -- what's it called slowbalization is the new buzz term, it drives me crazy take the other side of the trade. but the bottom line is, you saw the i today in the activity that you're going to get the ten-year the long rates everywhere globally should bump up if the fed cuts rates because it's s m stimulative. >> and actually my view is that treasuries are way overbought here they're not representative of the market environment having said that, we got an ism today that printed back to october of 2016, the month before elections >> that's right. >> what does that mean to you? >> it means it's reinforcing the view that i've had for a while, since we've been talking since the fourth quarter, the whole bull case to me is a slowdown. it's not better -- it's the fear that you're not going to have any growth just like in 1995, you had two quarters of 0.5% gdp at the time as reported. that was almost a recession. you went up -- you went up

almost 20% in the first half by the time they cut rates in july, you went up another 15%, guess what tech underperformed, the growth -- some of the slower growth areas underperformed, and the more economically sensitive started to lift because the fed was cutting rates. the whole bull story here is, you slow down aggressively enough to let the fed react to the lower inflation numbers but not anticipate a recession >> tony, thank you tony dwyre if the fed came out with a rate hike in june -- >> rate cut. >> rate cut, excuse me, which would surprise most investors. how would the markets react? >> i think it's very negative. but again, i always look half full -- half empty, not half full >> in life >> no, i am. i was a -- i grew up in a wall street with can't go wrong, will go wrong and always hope for the best but prepare for the worst so i would say that's madness of the highest order. with that said, if you want some

indication that maybe tony's on to something, at&t, after president trump effectively said, boycott at&t, was up 1.7% on a pretty lousy tape why is that interesting? because i think people said, you know, the dividend becomes more interesting as rates continue to go lower >> so, i think we'll see the answer to whether or not -- how the market's going to react. we had jim bullard out with the trial balloon of, hey, i think we could probably cut rates relatively soon. market didn't react. at least in my view, when it came out, market didn't react. if we start to get other fed governs making comments like that, the market will price this in and if the market goes up on that they cut in june i think it's positive in the relatively short-term >> i just make one point i'm not an economist and his case about '95 may be true it's a totally different global economy now. think about what are we trying to do with nafta and globalization and all these trade issues, it's a different economy. tech has changed everything so i'm not sure that is a great analogy. i'll just make this point. if grow back and look in the last 20 years, we talked about this the other night on the

somehow, in 2000, 2001 when the fed started cutting rates to offset slower growth around the world, when they started doing it again in '08 this was not good for risk assets it just wasn't if we're at that place again, i think you want to have less exposure >> bond yields went to 207 on the ten year so to say the market hasn't responded. >> no, the stock market hasn't responded. >> after bullard's comment >> you would have thought that the market closed on the highs and -- or even at that point, if it ripped, but it didn't at all. stock market, not bond >> got it. >> coming up, deutsche bank sticking to a new all time low today but one top analyst says it might not be as bad as you think. plus dennis muilenburg telling cnbc the 737 max could be up by the end of the year. ♪ limu emu & doug

mmm, exactly! liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. nice! but uh, what's up with your partner? oh! we just spend all day telling everyone how we customize car insurance because no two people are alike, so... limu gets a little confused when he sees another bird that looks exactly like him. ya... he'll figure it out. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

welcome back to "fast money," banks across the pond seem to be in crisis mode and things might get even worse for these financials dom chu is in the news room. >> those european banks, melissa, have had a rough go of it it's been a longer term trend for some of the most embattled

european financials, look at shares of deutsche bank, it's lost 16% of its value year to date, lost around 39% of the its value in just the last 12 months and now for perspective in may of 2007, prefinancial crisis, those shares were trading above $159 apiece and today they got as low as around $6.64 according to data from fact set, deutsche bank shares now trade at 20% of book value or an 80% discount to book value depending on how you want to look at it. other big name banks in europe are also trading at deeper discounts. german lender commerce bank, general in france, 33% of book value. unit credit in italy around 39% of book value and then barclay's in the united kingdom trades at roughly 48% of book value. some traders will make adjustments and look at a measure called tangible book value but the story pretty much stays similar. many of the biggest brand name

banks in europe trade at a discount valuation to their u.s. counterparts and melissa, not sure exactly when investors will call a bottom in those valuations but it's certainly a trade theme we'll pay attention to >> thank you, dom chu in the news room. guy, you're on the deutsche bank drum beat for a long time. >> i don't know but i would say listen, you can't say it isn't specific to deutsche bank, you have to have some semblance that maybe it is systemic i think it is. it's the largest derivatives book ever. and you look at where citi bank is trading, tangible book at citi bank is $65, close to $62.5. why? in my opinion, european risk deutsche bank is a mess that will continue to go lower. >> you're more on the value side so do you see any value in these? >> i do see value and i do think that there's a dynamic here with the ecb where if one point you thought they were going begin to start hiking in 2020, pushed that back to september, probably

to december, if at best you hope for that environment so i like the banks. i think we talk about $13 trillion in negative yielding assets, they have most of them and i think this is a tough environment with the ecb hands are tied >> european banks may look like they're in crisis mode but our next guest says they could be showing signs of life. bob michael joins us for more. bob, let's be clear. you like the debt side of things >> yeah but there are a lot of good things going on in european banks. if you look at asset quality, it's improved every single year for the last three years when measured by nonperforming loans and that's including places like italy which everyone feels they should be concerned about. when you look at nonperforming loans the last three years they've dropped from close to 18% to 8 pl% so that's a very g story there. on top of that the banks have spent the post crisis environment raising capital and investing that capital in somewhat riskless securities they have these fortress-like balance sheets

i think this is where debt and equity investors come to a fork in the road. as a debt investor, i like the certainty of return of capital if you're an equity investor, the return on capital may be a little bit low >> when you -- i mean, i understand that you're looking at the fundamentals and you see what you see but does it get to a point where you take a look at a deutsche bank, let's say and you see the stock making new low after new low and you think it could get sucked into this sort of vicious vortex of the stock goes down and then it's difficult for them to service their debt >> sure. there are always situations like that where you're looking at the leverage of the banking system i actually think deutsche bank is a specific example. they were very slow to reorganize coming out of the financial crisis, they hung on to too many losing lines of businesses, and were late to reform largely around a consumer and commercial bank. >> so, bob, i'm curious, is there a world or a scenario where the equity of these banks

could go close to zero, right, or zero, but the bonds do really well because you look at credit default swaps and they haven't moved at all so it seems like the bonds are the place to be, equities might go much lower >> i think that's probably a bridge too far for me. i like something there at the bottom of the capital structure to protect me. i think as soon as you start talking about zero equity, you're talking about reformation, restructuring, and ultimately the debt investors get pulled into that, particularly now that all of a bank's bonds are eligible to be bail bailed in to bail out shareholders so that's kind of the mason-dixon line you cross there. >> bob you mention deutsche bank is probably deutsche bank specific, i respect that opinion but is there a chance that that derivatives book they have is sort of the ticking time bomb, not unlike what we saw ten or so years ago with the leemen brothers or bayer sterns >> i don't think so. i think to believe that you have to assume

that all their counterparties are naive about the exposure at deutsche bank. and i think that their counterparties have managed to lay off a lot of risk outside of that >> all right, bob, we're going to have to leave it there. thank you so much for coming by, bob michael. >> yeah but so that risk looks like it's been disseminated among a lot of other european banks, look at the euro stocks bank index, it's banging along a bottom, the low in 2009 was somewhere like 85. it's trading just above that during the euro when they finally were starting to get their act together, it traded as low as 72, 73 so the equities across the region they trade very badly so the fact that they're not just isolated at deutsche bank, whose equity for all intents and purposes is a doughnut, it's a zero, it's going there, they can't even merge with the other biggest bank in germany when they were told to do so by their regulators so to me, i actually think just look at the equities telling you that the problems are far from over. >> so, the eufn is the etf you

can use that actually gets you exposure to the european banks, dan points out, down 86%, especially in essentially cap weighted terms because of all the delusions since the highs and before the crisis. so it's been an ugly trade longer term but as bob pointed out, the balance sheets aren't as bad as people think your biggest issue that the net interest margins are terrible because of where yield curves sit in europe right now. until that gets better i don't think you're going to see much on eps but is there a value play there on a balance sheet, yes. >> there might be but i still think the equities have a long way to go but look at the credit default swaps, they're not moving so this is not a 2008 scenario i think that's really important. you have a lot of people out there that particularly ecb, ready to step in here so i don't think it's a 2008 scenario but that doesn't mean that deutsche bank's stock can't go to $1 or $2 >> still ahead, dark clouds forming over the tech space but there is one name reporting this week that traders are betting could be a bright spot for investors. plus boeing shares sinking today even as the ceo says the 737 max

planes could be back in flight later there year more "fast money" right after this

man: stand up if you are a first generation college student. stand up if you're a mother. if you are actively deployed, a veteran, or you're in a military family, please stand.

the world in which we live equally distributes talent. but it doesn't equally distribute opportunity, and paths are not always the same. i'm so proud of you, dad! man: i will tell you this, southern new hampshire university can change the whole trajectory of your life. welcome back to "fast money," boeing taking a hit again today as ceo dennis

muilenburg tries to do damage control speaking to our own phil lebeau who joins us right now for more on the conversation what are the highlights? >> melissa, i think we're going to be hearing more from dennis muilenburg over the next several weeks as they try to move to where the faa says, yes, this plane is good to fly again during our interview today, he said that the current software fix for the mcast flight control system for the 737 max, they're putting that through simulator testing. after that, there's going to be a recertification flight then, an application would be filed with the faa for recertification of the plane that's likely to happen soon no time frame on that. with regard to the airlines that have said, you know what, we expect this plane to be back in august, we asked dennis muilenburg, is it going to be back in august and he said, look, the most i can commit to is that i expect to be flying by the end of this year and oh, by the way, he has heard the numerous comments that have been out there from travelers as well as pundits, a

whole bunch of people who have said they're not going to get on this plane and fly it when it returns to service here's what he had to say. >> i've heard those comments and again -- >> what's your reaction when you hear people say, i'm not getting on it? >> well, first of all, we deeply regret the impact. we're sorry for the lives that were lost. this will always be with us as a company. i can tell you that it weighs heavily on us every day and when i hear these comments from the traveling public and as you might guess i spend a lot of time in airports, and i have heard these comments and they are tough. they're tough. they wear on us deeply as a company. >> so, take a look at shares of boeing and we're going back to march 13th that's when the 737 max was grounded look at what the shares have done since then. we should point out, melissa, that dennis muilenburg says they have not received a single order, a single new order since then, for a 737 max. >> so, no new orders for the 737 max and then phil, what's your understanding of how this is impacting the development of the

next planes in the pipeline like the mid size jet >> well, they say at this point that they continue with the work that they're doing, whether it's the 777 x, which the first flight is going to happen with that later this year, likely they're in the process of testing the engines for the 777 x but then when you look at that middle market plane, the plane some people have called the 797 although it's not been officially named, that's not expected to be in service once they authorize this until 2025, 2026, so there's some time there. but that's going to be a key focus for regulators because you can bet they're going to be looking at the development of that plane and comparing it to if some of the problems and the mistakes that were made with regard to development of the 737 max. but again, that's a totally different plane. the max was taking the 737 and then seeing how they could certify it without having to go through a whole long process >> yeah. all right, phil, thank you phil lebeau in chicago for us. where do you stand on boeing

right now? >> i tell you, i think this company has been through this before, i know that sounds like we haven't really seen this before but i think if you think of them in the context of who they compete with, their order book, the time line to creation, and essentially where this company has actually been with the faa at times, i think, 320 is a really important level for the stock but i think you can own this stock here and be very happy with it. >> i think back half of the year is the time you take a look at this i think it's going to take a massive pr effort to get people comfortable. president has said it's 23409 going to be the end of the year. i'd make a best it's 2020 before these are going to be flying >> the china situation is weighing on this as well so they're getting a double whammy but i thought the stock would stop at 375. that was incorrect but you're talking about a trough valuation for a company whose earnings haven't been fundamentally impacted with the defense sector which is 30% of revenues which is basically trading for peanuts so in terms of valuation, it's ridiculous doesn't mean it can't get cheaper, but i think it's pretty interesting right here >> all right, coming up, box

getting crushed on its earnings report and adding to what's been a stormy few weeks traders here betting on clear skies ahead for one name reporting tomorrow we've got the details when "fast money" returns i'll see you later.

she's gone. it's a dangerous world. ah! [ grunt ] whoo-hoo! pops are your friends going to die? pickles don't be so dramatic. but yes probably. there they are. aww! whaa , whaa, ahh!

welcome back to "fast money," check out shares of box getting crushed on its earnings report after the company lowered its guidance adding to a tough month for the cloud stocks but one trader is betting things could clear up for one name reporting tomorrow dan is over at the plaza >> it's salesforce.com, the big ka hue that in the space, big growth leader and it's performed very well but tomorrow they report after the close, the options market is implying about a 5.5% move, that is versus the 4.25% average over the last 4 quarters, call value went really hot today on a day the stock was down almost 5% call volume is 3 times that of puts but seemed to be a lot of rolling action what do i mean by that traders rolling out of higher strike calls and rolling them down to something that is closer to the money one of the trades that caught my eye today, the largest trade of the day, when the stock was trading shortly after the opening, sold the close, 7,000 of the september 155 calls and bought to open 7,000 of the september 150 calls. again, just rolling it closer to

the money here let's go to the charts pretty interesting set-up here obviously the stock found -- i don't know what that's doing found a lot of resistance at that -- well, there you see that, right? and now it just broke through this support, the stock had been trading on a very tight range for month now, really underperforming the nasdaq leer and just quickly on a five year basis when you look at this thing, massive double top, obviously there's some pretty good room to the downside if this thing were to break some of the other names that have reported lately, workday i particular has not traded that well after some of the metrics were not up to snuff, especially for a stock that trades at the valuations that these do >> thanks for that, dan. check out the llfu show, friday, 5:30 coming up, final trades. i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure?

td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪ oh, wow. you two are going to have such a great trip. thanks to you, we will. this is why voya helps reach today's goals... ...all while helping you to and through retirement. can you help with these? we're more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help... voya. helping you to and through retirement. - anncr: as you grow older, -your brain naturally begins to change which may cause trouble with recall. - learning from him is great... when i can keep up! - anncr: thankfully, prevagen helps your brain and improves memory.

- dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the number-one-selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. - she outsmarts me every single time. - checkmate! you wanna play again? - anncr: prevagen. healthier brain. better life. plants capture co2. what if other kinds of plants captured it too? if these industrial plants had technology that captured carbon like trees we could help lower emissions. carbon capture is important technology - and experts agree. that's why we're working on ways to improve it. so plants... can be a little more... like plants. ♪ ifor another 150 years. the fire going ♪ to inspire confidence through style. ♪ i'm working to make connections of a different kind. ♪

i'm working for beauty that begins with nature. ♪ to treat every car like i treat mine. ♪ at adp we're designing a better way to work, so you can achieve what you're working for. ♪ final trade time >> bond markets are ahead of the equity markets but they have cuts this year and next year, buy the tbt. >> in a world full of political uncertainty you want apolitical money, gold's one of those choices, gdxis the way to play it >> dan >> tim's eufn, that's the european banks, i think you sell them all summer on rallies.

>> do you really believe that? >> i really do i mean, i really think -- >> buy efn thank you. >> did you say stick it to tim that's fantastic use of the phrase >> i think copper might have bounced. fcx. >> that does it for us see you tomorrow at 5:00 for ji starts right now my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you and put today into context not easy so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. this is a hostage situation. after another not so hot day with the dow