>> that's what i learned today a publicly traded refrigerator thank you very much. diana olick for us today that does it for "the exchange." i'll join tyler for "power lunch" which begins right now. kelly, see you in just a moment welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen new at 2:00 today, rally on. stocks surging we haven't been able to say that for quite some time on optimistic comments from the fed and easing trade tensions. we will break it all down for you today. retail stocks on pace for their best day in five months but a major warning from one key name about the impact of the trade war and big tech, rebounding from yesterday's big sell-off regulation risks overdone? "power lunch" starts right now as i mentioned, there is a rally right now up 461 points on the dow. let's get a check on the rally this hour. with stocks near their session

highs. nearly 2 percentage points higher major averages having their second best day right now of 2019 so far. the s&p breaking above 200 day moving average and nasdaq out of correction territory with today's big better than 2% gain. the move higher in technology fueling those gains, kelly. >> tyler, thanks get straight to bob pisani for more at the new york stock exchange bob? >> hello, kelly. this is an oversold bounce of trade optimism but the most oversold sector, take a look in the last month transport stocks semiconductors, retail all somewhat to the whole trade story. mining as well, all the big movers today speaking of retail, just want to mention, tiffany's, of course, finally a little bit of a bounce on earnings. even though the guidance wasn't that great and horrible month or so here. you saw that china warning about traffic to the united states, tiffany came out and called this out. if you look at their u.s. cop

store sales for the quarter, down 4%. specifically cited a drop in chinese tourists coming to the united states, not buying tiffany products and there you see the impact of the trade war. one specific company tiffany raised its dividend 5% now, 2.6%. have you noticed these retailers are suddenly outperforming utilities in terms of the yields partly due to the decline in prices you've seen but this is very interesting and attractive. look at this macy's kohl's. tapestry this is higher than most of the utilities that are out there tyler, back to you >> robert, thank you very much a lot of fins speak today. fed chair jay powell speaking about the economy and richard clarida speaking here on cnbc. steve joining us with the highlights hi, steve. >> reporter: hey, tyler. from chicago here. richard clarida, key policy maker, telling us that rate cuts

are indeed a possibility in response to growing tariffs, whether it's the federal reserve needs to know more about the impact on the outlet for the economy. here's what he said. >> today, the tariffs that have been put in place on the economy have had a small effect in the aggregate and i think others agree in the contessa brewsensue consider more tariffs and potentially retaliation, that potentially has a more noticeable effect on the economy and we would have to take that into account >> reporter: in one of the most detailed explanations of how the fed thinks about these tariffs, they raised prices but not inflation. in other words, one time rise in the price level but doesn't continue it should address and take seriously potential weaker growth and a persistent yield curve growth would be serious. the possibility of a fed reaction but didn't promise one. here's what else he said >> if we get a sense that the outlook is slower than we expect and we sense the underlying

inflation below where we want it to be, then chair powell and i have indicated, we're going to put in place appropriate policy to achieve those goals and whether or not that means acting preemptively or when the data comes in will depend on the context at the time. >> i will tell you, the reaction, a very slight uptick with the possibility of a june rate hike. it was at 14 and moved to 21 it's not big but look at july there. 60% probability of a rate cut in july clarida, not saying the market is ahead of where the fed is and gave multiple opportunities, tyler, to push back against where the market is priced he did not i vaavail himself of that willing to go with expectations where they are, at least for now. >> thank you very much we appreciate it, steve. stay with us, if you will. we'll talk more about where interest rates in the economy go from here. peter bookvar joining us now

and cnbc contributor i love to know what's on your mind having now heard this all play out today and with clarida now as well. >> i think they're taking the right approach in saying let's see how the tariff situation plays out. because at least we have some dates to focus on. we know mexico, either happens or not on wednesday and we hope that trump and him meet. we assume it's the end of the month with g-20. >> i mean the fed. >> in two weeks. obviously, they're not going to be able to respond prior to the trump/xi meeting how that plays out could have a profound influence on the economy. and they don't want to be seen as panicky only nine rates to cut if they plan to go back to zero. in the last rate cycle, they had 20 they had to be judicious with how they utilized. i don't think they should go back to zero ever. >> you don't think they should cut, period?

>> i think that the economy continues on the trajectory they're seeing, they should cut. i'm just against them going back to the zero bound which is what he talked about today. >> on the current trajectory, you think they should cut and what is it about that trajectory that leads you to believe that they should? because as i understand their dual mandate, you want low inflation and near as possible to full employment and that feels pretty much like what they've got right now. >> on paper, that's what we have right now. but at least the labor market part is a very much lagging indicator. if the u.s. economy continues to slow, if we get more one handles in the next couple of quarters, then eventually, in gdp, that softness in the job market will begin to show up in the numbers. in employee error, you're not going to start by firing people. you'll cut costs here and there. shutting workers is sort of the last decision in response to a slowdown >> that's what's interesting about this, is so much of your

interview in the discussion has been around the potential slowing, the potential impact of the tariffs, whether the fed would cut. what was the term he used? insurance or sort of a safeguard against that like we saw in the '90s? >> yeah, so he mentioned that back in april and the market reacted to that. still something we did i'm not saying it's something we're going to do. but it was something that was in our play book. and i think that the effects of these tariffs are so uncertain that i think the fed doesn't want to prejudge it. i think the one thing clarida said is it's not seen as a major league inflationary event because of the way the mechanics of how they work you put the tariff on, prices go up one month the next month or a year later anyway, they won't be higher by the amount unless it creates a broader inflationary spiral and prices rise in the economy more broadly

and the sellers feel like they have an excuse to do so. that'sto the side. what he's phuocfocused on the productivity effects and the weaker growth effects and that's where the fed might address it but right now and so far, very definitively, a modest effect on growth if at all. >> and finally, peter, he was, he did, let's see how he said in particular he said inflation was at the lower end of the range he's comfortable with, so people speculating about, you know, would that be the justification of tyler's point about the mandate? crazy as it sounds to say it's 1.4 instead of 1.8 if that's a big deal. >> that sort of confused it when powell spoke and brought the fed, dallas fed pce. a couple last week that hit 2% matching the highest level since 2012 so you'll talk about the dallas pce being at a 7 year high but then show this angst on pce because some other number has

trended lower? >> so maybe mixed messages there. interesting. all right. >> folks, peter, steve, thank you very much. the billionaire hedge fund manager stan has a long track record of beating the market and now getting really cautious. he sold nearly all of his investments and has piled into treasuries following president trump's tweet in may that escalated the trade war between the u.s. and china yields on the benchmark treasury down 15% since that time but the stock market down only 5% since then and still, it is up double digits for the year so far. let's bring in cnbc contributor richard bernstein, ceo and chief investment officer with richard bernstein advisers and steve musoka what did you hear today from the fed, richard, that triggered, i guess, i got no other real reason, that triggered a 400 point gain in the dow?

>> tyler, i have to say that i'm a little surprised by the overly optimistic reaction to what the fed said largely because as you pointed out before, we're sort of, for the fed, reached the goals we have very strong employment we have very good price stability and i think right now, the future of tariffs is very uncertain. on the one hand, you could say some tariffs might slow the economy. that would lead the fed to ease which is what everybody is joyful about today however, if the tariffs broaden and broaden substantially, that would be inflationary and that would force the fed to tighten so i think the pluses and minuses may be a little more evenly distributed than the market today but not going to look gift horse. >> my notes indicate that you're not all that worried, ultimately, about an inflamed trade war, collision with china. and maybe even others. you don't think it's going to be all that big of a deal, so long

as the fed is the backstop as it seems ready to be. >> not only the fed, but also other central banks around the world that are continuing to be incredibly aggressive. if you go back a few weeks, everyone was happy, stocks were moving up, sentiment was very positive we were more than due for a correction we just needed some kind of spark to create it and the trade war certainly provided that. now we've corrected some 6% close to close over the last couple of weeks and the reverse is true. we were set up for some kind of rally. in my mind, kind of buvery oversold here. i'm not surprised to see the market up a lot today. more than a reaction to the news, more of a reaction to how oversold we were and in terms of the trade war, i just don't see the trump administration going into the 2020 election cycle really doing

stuff that will truly damage the economy. i think that they will back off on policy at some point. they're not going to want to go into a 2020 election with one sort of feather he has in his cap which is the economy has done very well the market has done very well on his watch. and i think they will be very, very careful going into that election cycle now, post the election, that's a new, assuming there's a second trump term, and he will not be up for reelection again, then i think a true trade war becomes a very, very real threat to the market, but i don't see it happening until post-2020 election. >> let's say i have some discretionary money lying on the side and i want to put it to work somewhere, somehow, with a five year time horizon what would you do with it right now? >> with a 5 year time horizon, that's an interesting question don't hear that very often on cnbc usually five minutes

five year time frame, i think, look let's talk about first in the next year or so. in the united states, the big issue for the next year or so is decelerating corporate profits much more important than anything about the fed, anything you're hearing about trade is decelerating corporate profits and that really argues for a pretty defensive high quality portfolio of which people really are not looking at people are still in technology, financials they're not really in traditional defensive sectors. i would say the next 12 months going up the next five years, i may surprise some people by saying this but we may see somewhat of a difference from what we saw in the last 5 to 10 years. the united states was basically the only game in town and now at the end of the 10 year bull market, people are realizing the united states was, past tense, the only game in town. my next guess, may outperform the united states. >> very interesting. rich bernstein and steve, we appreciate it guys thanks coming up, a retail rally

today. the etf tracking the group rising more than 2% finally. that's its best day in five months could another turn in trade talks in the stocks right back down look at that names you know beating the s&p 500 today. how about mattel, whirlpool and kpooerks hi xerox? stay with us hey! i'm bill slowsky jr.,

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welcome back retail doing well today. tracking the sector for the best day since january. tiffany up more than 3% after earnings even though the trade war could put the luxury retail and diamonds in the rough. tiffany cutting full year outlook blaming lower spending the strong dollar, increasing tariffs. for more on this, cnbc reporter courtney reagan with us along with jan kniffen and cnbc contributor and first to you, why is tiffany up on this onslaught of bad news? >> i would say that tiffany is up because it wasn't as bad as people thought it was going to be and they didn'tsay things that were scary as people thought they might say about what was going on in the world because they're facing into some pretty tough business. that they're looking at difficult business in china because the economy will slow if these tariffs go on and tariffs on the goods and my list of companies that sell into china, they're number one as far as the percent

of their business. so those are all bad news items. the u.s. business wasn't great the chinese business just reported wasn't great. gross margins were lower and expenses were higher all of those, you would have thought might have gotten their stock clobbered but they were okay and since they were okay, the stock first reacted notably and then positively. i would say nothing's really happened and most of the world has tiffany ready to hold and that's what they got. >> what would you add on that? >> i think those are all sort of good ways to sum that up if you look, that's higher and raised their, a number of other stocks as well i'm not necessarily saying that's the reason why the stock is higher but something folks are pointing out today at least. >> it's interesting you mention that today because we actually, because the 10 year is so low, the entire s&p is looking more and more attractive. whether it's because of that or the whole sector, the fact the best day since january, that was

a good tell in early january what was coming. >> that's true and the earnings reports, canada goose sell off 20% on the back of us its earnings or abercrombie and fich and they reported a growth in comparable sales we've had some pretty outsized reactions and a lot of fear of the unknown. we talk about that every day with the uncertainty, what could happen if we have the fourth traunch of tariffs it is such a big unknown but that could really hurt so i think we've had accelerated pain that was maybe a little bit too early. >> so jan, if there are more and more additive tariffs, who loses the most who loses the least? >> well, we know -- >> potential gains >> if they add 25% on $325 billion additional goods, plus 25% on the first 200 which is only at 10 right now, it will basically wipe out a year of retail earnings unless they can pass that all through and i've said all along, they can't pass

it through on the other hand, it's worse for some people than other people bad if you're in electronics and not bad if you're in do it yourself not bad in apparel because that hasn't been hit so far and now it will be apparel moving out of china as fast as it can anyway. it's bad if you're shoes 1% tariff n 12% now. if they have a 35% tariff, that's got to be difficult to deal with and shoes are hard to move it depends where you are but not good for anybody as far as retail goes. the only way this should be good if it works and china drops all of our tariffs and sing kumbaya and it all works out but if tariffs go in and stay in, retail has to move out of china and expensive to do. in the long run, everything is going to move out of china anyway it's getting too expensive to do business there, at least for my kind of companies. this would just accelerate it but a tough 18 to 24 months. >> thanks. jan kniffen and courtney reagan,

appreciate it very much. stocks are soaring today as we pointed out the fed said it will do what it needs to do to help the economy. dow up more than 400 points. buying in stocks and the reassurance about the economy sending treasury yields bouncing off the nearly 2 year lows is that safety tradeve or? we'll discuss that when "power lunch" continues (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game.

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welcome back to "power lunch. i'm michael santoli at the new york stock exchange. the 10 year treasury yield bouncing back after hitting lowest level in nearly two years. investors are backing off the safety trade after dovish comments from jay powell, committing to keep the economic expansion alive today. matt maley your "trading nation" team matt, this was a ferocious move in treasury yields obviously, a move higher the move seemed stretched. where do you think it goes from here >> today's mechanized markets, they're all so very highly leveraged. overshot in the bond market. and it became extremely

overbought on price and extremely oversold in yield. in fact, if you look at the 10 year yield, look at the rsi chart, most oversold it was going all the way back to 2001 so that was extremely oversold on the flip side, you look at the tlt which measures price and much more overbought than it was back in december and really, any time in the last few years on top of all that, the settlement 93% bullishness among future trade traders. everybody was on one side of the boat we've had fed speak this week. somewhat dovish. so i don't know. talks for rates to shoot back 3% all of the sudden but this is the kind of technical set-up that usually lasts for a while i think the pocket race will last for several weeks, rather than just a few days >> chad, i think you've kind of been looking at this low yield environment as something that makes fundamental sense just where the economy is and such,

but what about from this juncture in terms of yields? what do you think the range is >> in the short range, in short part, you could see 10 to 15 basis point gap higher but in the intermediate term, we think that yield differentials where german yields are negative 20 basis points, continue to see yields compress and inflation expectations, we believe will be marked down and also, global growth or aggregate demand will soften over the course of 2019 into 2020. so we would continue to be along this trade if you see rates go higher >> in other words, you see the yields making new lows for this phase, chad? >> yes so we think you could see a 2% handle on the 10 year and 175 handle on the 10 year going at 6 to 9 months due in part because of all the points i'm making >> all right presumably, still flattish yields matt and chad, thank you very

much for more "trading nation," head to our web site or follow on twitter at @tradingnation. tyler, back to you. >> sir, thank you very much. ahead on "power lunch," wall street weighs in on uber we will speak with one of the analysts who's telling investors to get in there and buy now. plus, the fate of big tech those stocks on a tear today are regular risks overplayed those stocks suffered. how college students are caught in the middle of the trade war with china all this when "power lunch" returns. >> and now, the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> when it comes to investing, there are generally two popular methodologies. fundamental analysis, which focuses on things like revenues, earnings and cash flows and technical analysis, which focuses on chart patterns, price movement and momentum. i'm joanna payne and schwab is the better place for traders

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hello. i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. nigel faraj meeting with president trump at the u.s. ambassadors residence in london.

and that is where president trump is staying during his stay at britain primary proponent and a bit earlier, handwritten parchment copy of the u.s. declaration of independence one of only two known to exist viewed document with first lady. back here at home, a federal judge cleared the way for an abortion clinic in south bend, indiana, without license she wrote that the application of the state's licensing law does not promote women's health but substantial obstacle in the path of women seeking abortions. mark 30 years since china's bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in tiananmen square and underscores continuing concern for chinese human rights you are up to date that's the news this hour.

>> big turnout thanks 90 minutes to the closing bell up 460 points. more than that equal percentage gains with the dow and s&p. 1.75 and it had the worst performance yesterday with a lot of those big names down on regulatory concerns. today, the nasdaq back up 2.2% let's get to seema mody with a look at the stocks not participating in this rally. >> it involves an important development on cuba. now travel retrstrictions caugh the cruise industry by surprise. together transport thousands of passengers to the island on a regular basis and while cuba makes up a small piece of the global travel market, it's been seen as a popular cruise destination after restrictions were eased under the obama administration three years ago now, numerous analysts say norwegian cruise line has the most to lose with a possible 15%

to 13% earnings impact story we'll continue to watch. back to you. >> thank you shares of uber getting a lift that was clever, whoever wrote that were thinking, weren't they getting a lift in today's rally. the quiet period for the hail riding service hail riding. >> i don't think that was intended >> on the stock today. most of them including deutsche bank, goldman starting out with bullish ratings. well above the $45 ipo price and the current price of 42. citi stands alone with a neutral rating and price target of $45 one of the analysts that initiated coverage, brad ericson, senior analyst at needam and leslie picker is here. welcome, good to have you with us. >> thanks, tyler. >> let me start with you, brad

why are you bullish as you are on a company that all seems to have been able to do is lose money? >> nice work on the pun earlier. >> somebody was thinking >> it would be shortsighted missing the forest from the trees. the company in the top of the first inning, transforming how people consume transportation there's a long runway for growth yet. >> these are initiations, a lot of them from the underwriters. >> yes. >> any sales on the street now as a result of this? >> not that i saw. neutral. lowest price target is 42, in line with where shares are currently trading. what's interesting is you read through the notes from today and gotten through all of them so far.

they talk about total addressable market and autonomous driving they're not able to assess the price target for where they foresee the company trading in a year or so based on the fundamentals of the company. >> losing money. >> it's interesting to read these and see, like, how these analysts really envision the future looking for them. >> how would you answer that, brad and how do you see them turning a corner and starting to make money to answer leslie observation about what she has read in those other reports and i'm sure you've seen them too. >> not being able to do discounted cash flow >> yeah. >> there is no cash flow, so by definition, you can't look at it internet value creation in our opinion comes from initially share gains and creating network and fly wheel effects that can't be surmounted and those turn into competitive motes over time the one thing people tend to

underappreciate about uber is the difficulty in achieving the physical mote, the physical network being in 63 geographies and markets worldwide, that's going to become increasingly difficult to replicate and obviously, when you're doing, you know, we think $23 billion of net revenue in 2021 and growing from there, you start to apply some profitability at those levels and we think that's readily possible you start getting to big numbers that more than justify the current stock price. >> can i ask both of you a dumb question i'm an uber user, so many of us are. i sit there and go, they're making all the revenue and so forth yet, why aren't they making money? are they upsinderpricing? first mover advantage. why aren't they making money just not pricing it right?

>> a couple of things. they are making money and a legit profit metric in this then second, look out again andrew sorkin as you fast forward the fixed cost leverage is rekick lou louse. >> add two things to that. they operate in geographic markets that cost less you're paying a lot in new york city because you live in new york city. and the price of an uber is way more here than in, say, brazil, a huge market for them in fact, 75% oftheir rides tak place outside of the u.s. and oftentimes in those markets, the

price of an uber is going to be a lot less expensive number two, driver incentives. they give them huge incentives to get on the platform to have enough driver liquidity to have substantial scale to be picked up in an ample amount of times and those benefits to beat out other competitors, mainly, lyft. >> the whole argument rests on build the market share and raise the price. how are we going to react to that we'll see. guys, thanks. >> a new phrase entered into the lexicon. driver liquidity i love that. brad, thanks a lot good to see you. >> thank you >> thanks. to the bond market rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme today. >> interesting day out of the box for higher yields and retracement the intraday

too. right around 1:15 eastern with the great vice chair of the fed and completely different story the 25 basis points and one week of fed funds december, tells the story. forget percentages that contract rals, and looks for less keep the option of the ease on the table. caught up on tasting menu. squares, misdirected messages and amazon wants to help you make up your mind.

how a labor strike in france could impact your lunch. plus, facebook and google and apple all bouncing back today. after falling sharply yesterday on those regulation fearlfears. did they overreact or a little bit of both? "power lunch" will be right ba introducing the first of its kind lexus ux

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welcome back did you ever back for a digital receipt and not gotten one it might have been sent to the wrong person according to a new report, devices like square which send millions of these receipts sometimes misfire. this is everything from surprise gifts to coffee stops, doctors' visits, potentially spilling personal secrets a rare mistake i'm not sure if the shares moved on this, ty. >> i saw the other person who pays the bill. whoever the receipt, just let them get charged for it. that's what i care >> if only that's how it worked. you could preemptively. >> sure.

beauty is in the eye of the smartphone holder, it seems. amazon users can now preview cosmetics on their own faces using technology from beauty focused artificial intelligent company modiface acquired by l'oreal last year. can virtually try on different lipstick shades using the rear facing camera on their phones. the technology has rolled out on amazon, in the u.s. and japan, and you can take a look and you can see how different shades look. >> this is a no brainer to me. >> would you this? >> it's going to be ubiquitous when you're doing home improvements, the idea that you'd be able to see a space differently seems like a great thing. >> does house allow you to put that furniture in place? >> ikea was one too. i think i tried to download it and couldn't get it to work. >> the colors never seem quite

true >> that's, no, you're right and same with these lipsticks, by the way. >> who knows. >> might make the purchasers say, that's maybe not what i thought. blockaded by workers demanding more pay located in northern france with 25% of the new nutella in the world. demanding a 5% wage increase unfortunately for nutella eaters, no news on when it will end. >> my son eats nutella virtually every day on strawberries. let's have the president go to france he'll solve it. >> i didn't know 25% >> labor >> it's constant practically i'm surprised this isn't an issue sooner for the nutella >> get it solved over there. we need our nutella. >> we'll load up in the meantime best performing sector today, wall street appears to be shaking off the regulatory risks. but our own jim kramer has his

doubts >> the federal trade commissioner, people who take their cue from the oval office when justice about the start atop the bottom. predatory business practices with possible inquiry into apple's monopolistic behavior. cracking down these tech types, especially since trump attacked amazon those used to seem like the jewels and now more like enemy of the state >> so just how much risk is big tech facing? joining us, managing partner gene munster would you also start with facebook and google as most at threat here? >> flip those around i would say google clearly is at some risk here i'm a big believer in google the importance of it for the internet the oxygen, the internet but that's different than today, this company at most risk for

trade behavior but also correct. facebook as a second and then need to look at each of these companies individual and towards the bottom of the risk scale would be amazon and apple. >> before that, on facebook and google, the common thread there, that we often talk about the online advertising they own the majority of the market are we talking about going after them from an ad dominance point of view? >> that's part of it i think initially gets up the doj and ftc that they control, call it 15% to 20% of the total online spend but look at their behavior, in terms of how they display results, the more critical piece here. i want to give you an example. when you do a search for the restaurant, this is google, and the first results are some google map results that is something that has long irritated companies like yelp.

yelp pushed down so that is a way of using their market dominance to change some user behavior. so it's pretty easy to fill in the blanks about why google is part of this conversation, but that would be a specific example of how it works. >> that reminds me of the microsoft case where essentially the issue was microsoft was steering results to things that favored other microsoft products or products that were repaying microsoft in one way or another. what do you think the remedies ultimately could be here some people were saying break up big tech others are saying, it's probably going to be some fines that are greater than just slaps on the wrist. others may be behavioral remedies or some combination >> so i think when we think about the remedies, i first want to set some expectations that this is going to take years for it to sort itself out. similar to what it took with

microsoft. certain companies like apple, for example, quickly dismissed from the conversation. but google's case, this is going to take time and unfortunately, be a space where investors get progressively more concerned about the multiple but specific answer around the remedy is a fine that's part of it. these fines have gotten bigger we know what facebook has talked about with their most recent fine, how they've been provisioning for that but more importantly than the fine is the change in behavior and it may be some greater regulation in terms of how those search results are impacted that could have a significant impact, well, let me put some finer point on that. i think if we look at the potential impact, our best guess today is that it could be a 10% impact to google. >> to their business or to their stock price? >> to the stock price. i think as a resolution now, an unknown period, this 2 or 3 year period of unknown that could have a greater impact and in other words -- >> put a ceiling on the stock.

otherwise wouldn't have been there. >> exactly >> thanks very much. gene munster. >> thank you dow upnearly 450 points right now. don't see it over there, but there it is. 442. live to go live to the new york stock exchange for a trader's take on the rally you don't want to miss art sh 'slws n.caen we'll be right back. for your heart... your joints... or your digestion...

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well, just over an hour of trading left in the day. a strong rally heading into the close. the dow and s&p up more than 1 1/2% nasdaq, though, leading the way, up 2% fueled by tech best-performing sector today real estate and utilities the worst performers the defensive ones let's get the traders' take. art cashen director of floor operations with ubs financial. art, is it as simple as yesterday the market sold off strong today the fed spoke in multiple voices and it reacted positively is it that simple? >> well, not quite you have to add in the fact that they got a note from china that's a lot more conciliatory than what we had heard over the preceding two weeks. that gave people hope. and also that congress and

particularly in this case some republicans are pushing back against the mexican tariffs. that gave people a little bit of hope add on to that that we heavily, heavily, heavily oversold. you looked like you were going down for several weeks in a row. we've only done that seven times since the year 1900. that's how badly oversold we were and that's why we snapped back and as you noted just seconds ago it was the things that got beaten up so badly yesterday that have improved the most. that tells you it's a rebound rally. we've run into resistance here, which is around thursday's highs. 2790 in the s&p. to 2800. and in the dow i miscalculated that slightly. it should have been 25 -- 260 to 25285. we're mildly to sell as of now i think we'll probably try to stay here. >> so give me your best

estimate, art. is this a rally that has some staying power or is it a one-day blip >> i'm not sure that it's one day but i think it's got a rather shorter shelf life. a lot will depend on what happens when the president comes back, where we go from there what do we hear from china and that will be critical. if the mexicans, who are going to be talking to pompeo, seem to be getting along, maybe we can get the proposed tariffs postponed. the market would love, that and that would extend the rally. >> all right, art. always great to see you, sir art cash-in. >> my pleasure areatit >> up next the unintended consequences of i trade war. stay with us

as the trade tensions escalate between the u.s. and china, thousands of chinese college students find themselves caught in the middle robert frank joins us now to explain that story hi, robert >> reporter: hey, tyler. china hitting the u.s. where it hurts yesterday, issuing a warning to the more than 360,000 students that study in the u.s. every year china's ministry of education saying that because of visa problems it is requiring them to "increase their risk assessment of the u.s. when coming to america. now, chinese students contribute $14 billion a year to american universities, which have become increasingly dependent on those dollars. and because chinese students pay full fare, they are increasingly subsidizing tuition for america's students but there are now signs that

china is shifting those students and those dollars to other countries, namely britain, canada, and australia, which are being more welcoming >> there is competition. there are fine universities in many other countries which would be delighted to welcome these students and scholars. >> reporter: we are here at nyu, which has nearly 9,000 students from china the tuition and costs here about $72,000 a year so there's a lot of money at stake. plus, nyu has a campus in shanghai now, so far there's been very little impact, nyu tells us, mainly because new york city is such a draw. but with so much at stake clearly nyu, lots of other universities hoping this trade war ends soon. guys, back to you. >> robert, thanks very much. robert frank and we spoke with purdue's mitch daniels just last hour where he said years ago facing this possibility they started to already ratchet down the number of chinese students they take to just 2% to 3% of the student

body and get more u.s. students. it's a fascinating way this whole decoupling between the u.s. and china is taking place >> is rippling through and i didn't know that the chinese students pay full freight, which is one of the reasons why universities love to have them. >> it's going to be a major problem if they go away. thanks for watch "power lunch," everyone >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell," everyone i'm sara eisen here at the nike post stocks are soaring today nike's one of the biggest leaders in the dow 59 minutes to go until the closing bell we're going to tell you everything you need to know as an investor into this close, including key question today, should you trust this rally? >> and i'm wilfred frost good afternoon to you. let's get to what's driving the action comments from fed chair powell and vice chair clarida indicate the fed is listening to what the market wants there are also reports that senate republicans could vote to block mexico tariffs and big tech is seeing a big rebound