tv Fast Money CNBC June 7, 2019 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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believe, which is going to fill the inflation story and i don't know if that will inform the fed decision any it's the one piece of macro that can turn things. >> in terms of the performance of this week >> it's a very creditable rally and that low is right where the march one was from a couple of weeks ago. it seems like the market is in better shape right here and we are going to enter preannouncement season, too. >> thanks as always, morgan, pleasure to have you with us >> that does it for kwoez closing bell,". >> have a great weekend. "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee, your traders are brian kelly, grasso and guy adami. the dow up 250 points today because bad news is good news once again and a weak jobs report sparked a flesh cut of euphoria and no deal so far between the u.s. and mexico yet tariffs could go effect as early
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as monday. with the fed ready to step in as good news, bad news, good news again, and if there's more bad news next week, what does that mean for the markets >> that's the most confusing on. >> i looked over at you and you had this look -- >> so let's walk there. >> good news and there's bad news good news, right? that's the question? >> yes >> we thought good news was good and bad was good and he may be right for the next couple of weeks. i still think it's madness that the fed with the 3.6 unemployment rate with the history of mankind including the president needs to lower rates and that's what the market seems to think and full speed ahead. i will tell you, i've been scared all week and i'm more scared now and the market is telling a clearly story that i want to either interpret or acknowledge. >> i think the rates and the fed are the most important thing in the marketplace and i don't think anything trade related is worrisome at this point with the
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marketplace and the market told us that. bad news is good news and good news is good news. it's all fed related >> is bad news also tariffs and we'll put tariffs into effect on monday do we see the fed funds futures go higher and will the market reaction to that >> at some point the impact of the fed actually becomes less. so while bad news was good news, i'm not convinced that that's going to continue. what we saw, in my view, this week was really the market pulling forward the rate cuts, right? we started the week when it was june or july and now we're starting to price in july and possibly june. the tariffs on monday most people are thinking that that's a short-term thing and lasts maybe a week or so and then they move on, but what concerns me is the jobs report today and the news we're getting from companies that are laying off people and wait a second, the economy is starting and tariffs
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are something that the federal reserve can't really offset and that's the problem here and that's what concerns me and the market may have to reprice again. >> here's the bad news and is that the market, when there's bad news in the macro and the market is truly selling off and that creates a dynamic where the market creates it a factor to consider right now the markets are giving the fed more ammunition to do nothing and not cut. in other words, the more you see credit spreads come back to earth and the more you see risk assets and asset inflation and guy talks about this all of the time the fed has nothing to be worried about along with 3.8 unemployment and 3.8 gdp and even with trade dynamics and the inventory dynamic which will be a headwind is probably drinking 2.9 and no room for the fed and i will say on tuesday which is
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efrgs i hea what i heard and i did not hear from one fed governor that they'll cut any time soon and i think the markets now have that priced in, and so i feel more today as i did yesterday that markets, i don't think positioning is -- is warranted here i think the economy is fine. the ratios are not bearish enough and this week took another leg higher in the last two or three days and that worries me. >> here is another twist along the lines of another wrinkle in this and a whole good news, bad news and bad news is bad news follow me here >> simple enough >> the market's levitating and does that give trump cover to prolong the mexican tariffs? you can play this until the cows come home. >> i think that's why you have to trade these markets and we're probably in this period where you get big swings up and big
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swings down and it's the deep end of the pool. when you have a profit you'll take it and you wait to see what happens in june. >> you basically have three rate cuts in the pocket and the markets are pricing in three rate cuts in the pocket and you also have maybe good news on the trade front. so if you get good news on mexico, good news on china, that's only exponential on top of it because the market is pricing in the fed >> it's interesting and to answer your question again, i think president trump, he lands tonight saying i have a thousand doubt points to play with now in terms of what i can do with the chinese and what i can do on this mexico situation. don't think for a minute that he doesn't take that into consideration. he has said that he has wiggle room in terms of this great dow jones industrial average under his watch to play with, and i think he'll utilize that to your point, i think it gives him more latitude to play hard ball with both china and mexico. to be a case point, it means it is a trader's market at this point. so that implies to me a sell the
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rally kind of market president trump spoke about it and he's getting off air force one right now returning from his trip to europe and if he makes comments we'll bring that to you and there we see pictures of him and the first lady disembarking. >> i look at it as a backstop. >> what if trump comes out and says we'll put tariffs on mexico -- >> you already said that. >> yeah, but the negotiations have broken down and the negotiations with china has to take a lot longer. >> we're a thousand points off on. >> you're long no matter what? >> a thousand points off the bottom i would say the market told us that china trade talks were going south and i'm sorry, trump told us that mexico was going south and now the fed told us the first time since january that they're erring on the side of neutral or cutting rates.
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>> so the market action is finishing today with the session highs going ahead into the weekend and what does that tell you about the markets and positioning in the markets. >> positioning whether you call yourself a bull and you think they can continue to go better and the next trade goes from cyclicals in away from the defensive and whether it's the ratios which however you want to do it or however you want to chart that, that's a ratio people look at to really understand where the market could be we've had enormous moves in things like starbucks and mcdonald's and staples and health care. you have a place where only in the last couple of days did you start to see semis really put a little bit more of a leg under so if you believe everything everybody is saying here you want to move into the more cyclical stuff because it hasn't done much. this market is about heavy dow-weighted stocks and don't include apple and everything else. >> all right we mentioned that stocks had
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their best week of the year and let's take a look at the week's biggest winners and all big moves and we thought it would be a perfect time to play a little trade it or fade it. why is this weird? >> don't they sue the graphic, though don't you usually have the people trade it -- >> now we don't need to do it. >> you want me to say it >> yeah. >> trade it or fade it a live version of it >> apple up 9% >> how can you trade apple i say trade apple. why? because if you look at where it traded down to on june 3rd it traded down 175 which is a 50% correction on december 24th and it did it on big volume and i think you're in a trade it camp. although i am definitely bearish on the broader market i think apple stands on itself i say trade it, melissa lee. >> if good news is bad news,
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which i mean fade it and primarily because you've had a 9% move in this. i view the next move in this market to be lower for a trade so i want to fade the apple. >> nice. >> nike. best week in a year up 8%. tim? >> i'd trade it and this is a moment when nike has been one of those companies that -- >> that's the wrong -- they did the wrong graphic. there it is. >> was i not clear >> crystal >> people thought china was going to be an issue for these guys if anything they've been running counter to that and they've been exploding and showing innovation and people worried aboutthe multiple at these levels and that's where you're at and i don't think in this environment you want to get away from something that's evaluated >> june 27th, they report earnings at 28 times forward earnings and i hear what tim is saying, but i'm more inclined to, mel, say it. fade it. no >> they did it right that time
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it's very confusing this particular round. >> chevron, up 7%. >> i am a fader of oil prices and that means i'm a fader of chevron at these levels and the xle has done nothing for five years and chevron is one of the top two holdings and i'm staying consistent that way. >> if the fed is as cautious as they are and that will put the brakes under the dollar's move, and i think brent prices are overdone chevron is the best and most e fishlly run oil company. if there's one to trade it's that one >> sea group, not surprisingly here i'm going to fade citigroup and the banks, that tray traded horribly today, but we had a pretty big steepening them >> can you not explain
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>> you fade it and if i want to trade what what doesn't make sense is people are concerned that the fed fed is stepping in and they're -- city bank of all of the that's the one i can stand on valuation and i'd trade it >> bonus round time. >> campbell's soup having its best week in, get this, three decades. >> sold to guy >> i'd sell it back to you, guy. >> three years, but i think you take what you got in this thing. you take your soup and put your saltines in and put money on the table and absolutely fade this sucker you've been given a gift after three or four years of a downswing, fade, fade, fade. triple fade. >> that is an amazing move in campbell's soup. >> you can't buy that. that's a spike and a flag pole
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right there. >> coming up, another stock that's soaring this week and one of the traders said it's gone too far, too fast. >> carter worth called him thi ek and you won't believe it, we are live in times square. more after this. non-seasoned travelers.uld be t and they took my toothpaste away. and you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks. how dare you, he's my emotional support snake. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, whose tech helps you understand the risk and reward potential on an options trade it's a paste. it's not liquid or a gel. and even explore what-if scenarios. where's gate 87? don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. (osamah) cancer is... the ugliest disease mankind has ever faced. (henry) i thought it was unfair. when-- when you hear those words that you get diagnosed with cancer.
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>> welcome back to "fast money" on monday, the chart master carter worth said tesla shares were about to kick it into high gear. >> we were where we were in '16 and we are actually getting down to a low that was seen one other time in history. how far below trend it's ever been since its ipo and here is the all-data chart and this is literally the lowest point it's ever been and you have a situation that it's so bad it's good and i want to make the bet that tesla is a time to be short if you're covering and to be short, speculative longs >> tesla cruising hire up nearly 15% as investors pile back into the stock. so what does he see in the charts now carter worth over at the plasma to break it down >> one could say the opportunity's come and gone, and obviously, i would not say it was the opportunity that it was,
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but let's try to figure it out together reference points matter, levels matter and one can see how well defined these tops are and one can see very well how defined the bottoms are and newspapers have been carrying 52-week low and 52-week high column for centuries and investors look at them, quantums look at them and i want to look at these levels in terms of the judgment that there would be a bounce and all the guess was and all of the thinking was was that we would find the prior low and we would bounce okay, so we did. now it gets nuanced. does it stop here? you did achieve a price objective that little bit difficult and the level from which is broke, and this is the 248, 250 level and it plunged to 177 and what we did on this move, actually lowe to high is almost 19% what we did was re-traced, watch the lines, exactly 50% of the
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move and so it actually closed off today even though the market continued and to some extent the opportunity has come and gone, and i would say you split the difference and you take some gains and leave the balance for the prospects of further gains. >> all right carter, why don't you come on over >> evan. >> did i mention he came in seventh? >> that's an amazing time for jean owe >> what's a longer term prospect for tesla? >> that par, we had a good conversation and nobody seems to know, but the -- how about this? would tesla have gone up that's a high beta stock and tesla bounced because the market bounced and the reference point not withstanding and the reference point was there and at this point do you take some profit sure
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>> tesla is anybody's guess and one could say they have a viable product, of course, they do and i see them on the roads and i've been in one myself and you can't talk about valuation and anything other than it's a dream, and not the cars, they're real, but what will ultimately become of this company is too unknown and no one can speak on that with authority and there are bears and bulls and that's what makes it. >> >> this is a short-term call for you and is there a chance that we'll bounce off of 180 again and can we re-do this raid >> if you go back to the low that is want a positive development. you want to continue the momentum even as we revisit the low and the presumption is that you would break that low. >> first of all, great call, carter it was basically jumping in there where sentiment was as low as it's ever been and that was part of the reason he went that way and this week he had news on deliveries and you have a lot of people saying that the s and the
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x will be better than expected and those have been cash cows for the company and the company needs cash it's really coming down to demand and there are also suppliers, and that's a major off-balance sheet issue and i still think it's about demand and to me the last time we were talking about this name, mel, you asked me what i'd done and i've rolled puts down and that's what you need to be doing in this company because fundamentals haven't gotten any better. >> my question to cbw, i can ask you a question. >> how keen and astute. >> thank you i appreciate that. in other words, where would you take this long position and great initiation 180a. i'm getting out and i'm getting short. >> if you go back to the level from which it broke, right that's where there's real overhead supply and the plunge and the 50% retriesment and if went all of the way to do that.
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>> what's your take on tesla >> i see a lower high since december for me, independent counsel fundamentally has changed and i would be a seller of tesla. >> what's interesting, carter is when i asked you about the prospect for tesla and you're a technician and you brought in the carts. if you were just being looking at the charts, what would you say the chart points to in terms of the next direction. >> it's an epic run-up and the beginning of what is an epic collapse. >> so continues lower each though you had these tradable realities. >> this is nothing that's for the paint of heart, it's shol till, and something no one has brought -- and it's a very dicey situation all sides, fundamentally, technically, qua quantitatively >> we'll see you on options action i'm melissa lee, you're watching
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fast money on cnbc first in business worldwide and here's what's coming up in fast. >> orange mocha frappucchino >> shares of starbucks are heating up, soaring to record highs, but one of our traders says investors are about to get burned he'll break it down. >> plus -- i love gold >> calling all gold bugs the precious metal having its best week since august >> the look of it, the taste of it, the smell of it and the texture. >> and the chart master says this is just the beginning of a begger rally wl explain. there's much more "fast money" goi right after this
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welcome back to "fast money," the delivery wars are heating up by cooling off. walmart is delivering straight to shoppers' refrigerators as both try to woo with next-did i delivery or amazon's garage delivery option and it is being dumped by fedex and it's choosing not to renew its express contract with amazon and it does remain for ground services is delivery the key component for the companies and are you ordering from amazon or walmart, put aside the fact that getting groceries into one's refrigerators is kind of creepy. >> what could go wrong with that >> wearing cameras on them -- >> who is they >> the delivery person and they put the groceries right into the refrigerator >> i can't make it fit myself so maybe they can figure out how to make it fit, but are you there
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>> no. you don't have to be there >> you probably have sour milk. >> i'm a stickler for expiration date, number one number two, i have a very specific way like the ice cream. >> and the shirt. >> the expiration date ka-ching >> i don't want people in my -- i don't want anybody -- i don't want my kids in my fridge and they're my kids! >> we don't like the service. >> why would you put your kids in your fridge >> oh, my gosh this is going off the rails. >> could this help walmart to take the next -- in other words, let's play would you rather? this is a derivative would you rather i'm telling you now, absolutely amazon over walmart. walmart is about to make a major double top and valuation is ridiculous, and amazon has sold off and i would much rather amazon whether they put my stuff in the freezer or not. >> they're both not an option.
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>> it's neither. >> i'm tired fade it! it's friday. >> we're going head to head in a worry with companies that can cost all of the way down to zero and they don't care about making money and they don't have to necessarily make money and why are they in the stocks that are in that type of fight? fade it. that's it. time for the final trade not final trade, let's go around the horn. >> nike, love it >> everything they're doing right now, stay defensive and go with the swish >> b.k.? >> gold has had a tremendous run and time to take profits on that one and sell out of gld. >> grasso? >> it's been my final trade a lot of times lennar is up 36% stay up, lennar. time to shine. >> wasn't this a fun show for a friday >> it was fun. >> and you're off next week. >> are you going to miss me? at least say yes just pretend. >> of course, i'm going to miss
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you. >> b.k. is selling gold. i'm surprised at the b.k newmont mining is breaking up to the upside, melissa lee. nem gets it done. >> don't move. "options action" starts right after this for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
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>> hi there. we are live at the nasdaq after a very big week in the markets and in the meantime, here's what's coming up on the show >> beyond meat has been sizzling >> and if you think the stock move is beyond belief, wait until you hear what the options mark has to say about the beefless burgers mike ko will break it down speaking of hot, starbucks shares are on absolute fire, hitting another all-time high today, but if you're thinking of getting in, watch out. >> oh, mother of pearl that is hot! >> because dan nathan says the coffee giant could bur
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