tv Options Action CNBC June 7, 2019 5:30pm-6:00pm EDT
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>> hi there. we are live at the nasdaq after a very big week in the markets and in the meantime, here's what's coming up on the show >> beyond meat has been sizzling >> and if you think the stock move is beyond belief, wait until you hear what the options mark has to say about the beefless burgers mike ko will break it down speaking of hot, starbucks shares are on absolute fire, hitting another all-time high today, but if you're thinking of getting in, watch out. >> oh, mother of pearl that is hot! >> because dan nathan says the coffee giant could burn
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investors and -- ♪ ♪ >> and it is solid bold, bey, and carter worth says the chart of the yellow metal is pointing to a big, shiny break out. it's time to risk less and make more the action begins now. >> we kick it off with gold. the yellow metal touching its highest level since april 2018 as the odds of a fed rate cut is on the rise and this solid gold rally will continue too heat up and he's over at the plaza to break it down. carter >> it's the trade that never quite works and presumptively one day it will. let's talk about it. gold has been toying with the prospects of a breakout repeatedly for the past five years and it keeps approaching this 13.50, plus, minus level and goes away, the way we've gotten here which is to say it's
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a higher low and a higher low, and a higher low, all which would suggest that the tension ultimately is to be resolved there's an expression and the more authority level has and the more authoritative the resolution and this 1350 level has been in play for half a decade and let's pull it back further and here's another way to draw the line and we're working into the apex of this formation and here is the longer term chart that puts this in context and the all-time high and 1950 an ounce or thereabouts in 2011 and so the thinking here is this is the moment, and i think it's right to be long gold, gold mining stocks and however you want to do it. a couple of long-term charts and we'll go from there. this is also important and this is gold on top and what we have here is relative performance to all other commodities. so not only crude oil, but to copper and cold and cocoa and wheat, milk and steel.
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this is the interesting thing and yes, we know after selling off and trying to recover and it looks good day to day and week to week and what's important is we are making new, relative highs right now and it has bounced perfectly off of this relative line over and over and over, and i did it again and now let me put in the top line we are just now, you can see it here we just moved above that high. we made new, relative all-time highs this week and it is a very important development and i like geld and you have to have some of it in some fashion in your portfolio. >> so, mike, what's your trade on gold? >> this is an interesting case because when we think about gold, and one of the reasons that we thought we might break out new highs and we didn't and we didn't see higher rates of inflation. when we talk a lot about gold and usually inflation will be a part of that conversation and what do we see in april and we actually did see higher rates of
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inflation and what we're combining that with is conversations about rates remaining low or even going lower in the short term because of broader economic concerns and that is a recipe that is not going to put a cap on inflation and therefore if you have a situation like that where you're starting to sea levels of inflation rising, but rates are not going to keep pace with that, then that's a situation where i think from a fundamental standpoint one could argue that gold could go higher the other thing i would point out is with this, an options show we often talk about implied volatility and we don't talk about call spreads very often on the long side and the reason we don't do that is because out on the money implied options trade with the volatilities than the ones at the money. so often times you'll look at a call spread and i have to spend 40%, why would i do that and usually the answer to that is yes however, that is not often the case in commodities. such is the case here and that's
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why i'm looking out to august. the 127-133 call spread and you can buy the 137 calls which were at the money and $2.65 and it called for a dollar against it and you're spending $1.35 and that's cheaper than call spreads typically are and one of the things i would also point out here is that that helps mitigate some of the decay and this is not a situation where, like stocks, you have an upcoming catalyst that could cause a breakout with a gap and i'm not expects discontinuous pricing where you have earnings in the stock and that's one of the reasons why a trade like this it doesn't have as much decay and you're taking advantage of the fact that the out of the money options aren't as cheap as the at the money options are in the single stock >> mike is throwing around that term and implied volatility and it's the price of options and when you look at the price of options over the last five years and you can think about the last
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time we had some kind of macro pressure that has put downward pressure on risk assets and caught gold and safe haven assets to rise and the gld and the price of options is really cheap. so i think if you're playing for the breakout from the technical standpoint that carter sees and that you see the potential for some stuff to go wrong this summer and stocks to go south, this call spread, the way mike is doing it makes total sense and it's some of the cheapest vol on the board if you want to play for some sort of macro volatility this summer. >> and the most aggressive thing is the equities themselves, right? are the beta train and you get much more of a move out of a small cap miner than you will out of it itself and of course, you have the idiosyncratic risk of picking the wrong stock and you have the jdx, or the you will sma stocll stocks or the gd >> i hear people playing the
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minors as a way to play gold and there are levered ways and idiosynchratic risks and they have operational challenges and it's a capital intensive business and other ways they play into it that can foul trade if you're trying to make an explicit bet on the commodity and gld is a clean way to make that bet and we can take the other complications off the table. >> in terms of picking gold as a safe haven, how carter did the charts look at some of the other stereo typical safe havens some people say gold isn't anything and it's not anything and it's just a metal, and we know that classically defensive things and the original with soap and cereal and there were no pharmaceuticals and they work well from hersheys chocolate and so forth and health care less so and the defensive areas of the markets and the utilities reits,
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treasurys and they're all sending a certain message. >> fast food stocks are having a big week, as well. mcdonald's, starbucks and dunkin hitting new all-time highs and chipotle is within striking distance of the 52-week high and there's one name in the group that could ruin the fast food fiesta. >> let's look at starbucks, mel, for a whole host of reasons and this is a stock that for years, from 2015 really until some point this time last year was rangebound trading between 50 and 65 and we had this massive breakout in 2018 and right now, and last june and it's up 28% on the year and what really caught my eye is that rid there this week at some point the stock literally came alive and made four con skwutive all-time highs in a row and it rallied about 9% in a straight line over four trading days and the market caught a bit here and there was
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less pressure on the trade issues that was weighing on stocks over the last couple of weeks, but you know, to me, this is a stock that trades 30 times. the stock and the sentiment is positive from an investor standpoint, and i have a one-year chart here and i want to show this a little bit and this is kind of showing that consolidation right up until april where the company reported the fiscal q2 results that were fine and comps were better and they were better in china. you know, here's the other thing, right china is a big growth area and it's a fifth of their profit and we know that on the nasdaq last month and there's luck in coffee which is a chinese coffeemaker and they're set on taking on starbucks and china here went public and they're going to open another 2,000 stores this year they'll have more stores in china than starbucks has and to me it's a simple trade if you look at next identifiable catalyst, and obviously, and there's not a resolution and you weigh in on the second half
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guidance, and you play for a move back below 70s here and when the stock was trading at 83 today and it will capture it, and the 70 put spread and buying one of the august, 82 half puts and selling one of the 70 puts at 50 cents. it breaks even at 80 and you can make up between 80 and 70. what i really think is interesting here, you lose the two and a half there ares and that's 2% of the stock price and this is up on a massive, massive spike here, and i like the risk reward in the trade and i think there will be negative headlines about trade over the next few months >> there are a couple of chips you talked about trade and you mentioned it was trading 30 times, and had you bought it in
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late 2015, what you would have gotten in return for that was a 20% decline over the ensuing 14 months and it's really not that attractive and the other thing i would say is thinking about any situation where you will make it short the stock right here and given the direction it's taken, that's a very dangerous exercise and it's an ill-advised exercise so i absolutely think you've made sense and we've identified a catalyst and a fundamental reason, and i will defer to other men than i on that topic i like the steve. >> it's seep ooh on depending upon selling one at this price is it the defensive security that it is believed to be. think about what it did in the financial crisis and it dropped from 20 to 3%. that's an 80% decline. people just do cut back on $8 cups of coffee and $4.
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they drink three instead of four or none. the point is it's not immune it's not a god, and it's come a long way. >> all right we've got news out of washington president trump landing from his european trip moments ago. ylan muy has that, reporters shouted at him, do you have a deal in reference to the ongoing talks with mexico and the president responded we're doing well as far as we can tell, negotiators are still meeting at the state department ask we'll see what's going on. >> ylan moy. no deal. >> it jolted markets that came out of nowhere and there was their wasn't a whole heck of a lot of contexts that more tariffs would be put in place. i do think that for the fact that this week there was conflicting news about whether there were tariffs or not and
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it's interesting in the main incorrectionally more booufish. >> and also, we looked down there six weeks in a row and the seventh week, and this was a 737 gives week of theiary. what happens in the eighth week? >> stay tuned. >> for everything options action check out our website and sign up for our super cool newsletter rumor has it this week's edition has the mega millions jackpot number what are you waiting for here's what's coming up next >> where's the beef? >> where's the beef? >> there isn't any, and with beyond meat already up 450% from its ipo, you won't believe where options traders see it heading next plus calling all options ak
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i'm not really a, i thought wall street guy.ns. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade welcome back to options action beyond meat wowing wall street, and it is up 40% just today. the stock is up more than 450% from the may 2nd ipo price and that has options traders salivating a whopping 350,000 options contracts today making it the fourth most active single stock behind only apple, advanced microand tesla.
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michael is breaking it down with a call to action >> how much interest there is in beyond meat is beyond belief here we saw the open interest coming into this morning and obvious leaks it's going to be a lot higher paced on today's volume next week, i would expect and what we can see is that emotional terms is the number of contracts outstanding times the current share price and the idea being that the open contract in a igh-dollar start, like beyon meat is a more open stock than ford, for example. beyond meat has $3.5% of notional open interest in options and compare that to some very well-known names. that is more than kraft heinz. it's more than pepsi and it's closing in on names like mcdonald's and tar bucks see that starbucks. that's pretty remarkable
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it's had a huge move and you may wonder why is there so much open space and right now the options mark is implying a huge potential move between now and then around 60 bucks and here's the interesting thing. they're expecting that move basically to be lower. we've talked about this before in stocks right after ipos that have very high short interest as beyond meat does the stock has become hard to borrow and actually, you can buy the stock forward closer to a hundred bucks than where it's trading right now instead of going out and buying the shares. that is a warning sign so if you don't own the stock. i don't recommend going out and buying it now. another way to consider this is to take a look at this trade consider that with the stock closing around $140 today you could buy the 110-140 call spread and that's a $30 call spread for less than 15 bucks when i was looking at that the reason far is that the lower strike call options were essentially trading for the amount that they were already in the money.
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that is pretty remarkable, meaning that you could buy those 110 calls rather than the stock and you wouldn't have any risk of it falling below that level or put differently, you could buy this $30 call spread for less than $15. if the stock had stayed here you would make the difference and if it rose you would make the difference and you wouldn't lose money until it fell 124.60 why is that the case in this environment, the options market does think this stock will be lower by the end of the year than it is rid noght now. >> who is trading into beyond? >> not me. not the stock or whatever they kull those things between the bread. we tried it on fast money and it wasn't a particularly nice experience. >> you did not like it >> if you're inclined to get long the stock that is one way to capture a 6%, 7%, 8% move and why not? this stock was up $40 today and
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what could it be on some competitive announcement and this is kind of the wild, wild west and i suspect people are going intraday and going into earnings and we spoke specifically about the june 155 and the 160 call spread that expires a week from today. somebody bought 2600 of those and that seemed absurd at the time the stock was trading $100 here we are, it's 140. that trade is already a winner just based on the move we've already seen and what we're seeing here is when there's no stock available to short and anybody who shorted it can be already and it's very hard for folks who make those bets and that's one of the things feeding into it. >> so let's analyze the stock having one day of trading and here is the high and here is the close and how about two days or four >> if pattern interpretation is trying to figure out where you are in relationship to why you
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are, and where people is and is up play is none of it -- and it's all speculative and this one-day gap for those who might be bullish here than bet on further gains. >> we've seen other ins and the speculative frenzy >> up next, investors biting into apple and that's great news for one of our traders and we'll explain. plus it's friday, so you know what that means and we're taking yore options questions live on the show and you might just get your answer on air we are live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square much more after this (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh.
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it is great, gidget. everything is grand. [ meow ] [ purring ] [ growl ] are you finished? [ cooing ] that was weird. oh sister it's gonna get way weirder. what do you look for i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪ welcome back to "options action." last week dan laid out a plan
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after turmoil. >> i see technical resistance up to the 200 to 220 level and i see pretty good support at 160 to 140 so i say to myself the next two event, one, we cannot model and we don't know when it will happen if there will be some resolution to the trade situation and then the next one which has been a huge catalyst to the stock over the last six months will be earnings so you can sell the august 150 put about $1.57 and buy one of the august, 195 calls for $2.75. >> apple soaring nearly 9% just this week. so how are you managing the trade? >> it's out in august and we still have the same catalyst and it's a little more so than that. the most important part to manage this and to offer that less than a dollar and it's offered at 88 cents and now the 190 call that you're left long
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is worth seven bucks the stock at 190 so now you have the opportunity to roll a portion of those profits up to a higher strike call spread if you think there are higher highs in the stock which i suspect there are and you can sell a higher strike call like the august 220 call and add about a dollar and then the 195 and 220 call and that's a good setup here especially if you think there will be a sotireluon for the china situation and better earnings up next, we have your tweets and the final call i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪
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♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ >> final call time carter >> mining stocks, and bouillon, however you want to do it. i like call long. >> call spreads and gld and i wouldn't buy beyond meat right here >> what disdain for beyond today. >> what about my starbucks share? i'm getting pushback from the farley girls on my starbucks
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trade. >> i didn't know they were options action fans. >> that does it for us see you back here next friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet @jimcramer. when the market gets incredibly oversold like it was coming into this week, remember i told you, you have to expect an amazing bounce e
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