show using zoom when you look at our earnings score, we also did that >> exactly >> and these things have never been done before >> harry moseley, cio of zoom. big day tomorrow >> big day omorrow, the fed. and we will learn more about the track of monetary policy >> thank you for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen down here at the caterpillar industrial it's one of the best performing groups as the overall stock market surges into the close in hopes of a u.s. china trade deal good afternoon to you from me 59 minutes left, we'll telt you everything an investor needs to know before the close let's start with what is driving the action president trump tweeting he is talking to president xi, and a g20 meeting is imminent. industrials and tech are leading at the market, risk on at the moment we are up 1% or so on the

s&p. the down the high this session was 414 points the dow is up 372 points at the moment steve is our guest host for the full hour. steve, good to see you the factor of course yields sinking off the back of a. and the markets hoping they will see the same from the fed tomorrow >> as you would suspect. when you in into work every day as a professional trader, you look at the market and think what's going to move the market today. and today was sort of a lay-up you have the tweet, you have the ecb, you have the fed this week. so there are a lot of moving parts, but it's all about the fed dovish keeping a spark underneath the market. >> i thought it about the president's tweet. >> but leading into it, it was ecb. and then the president stole the show as usual. >> much to discuss we do have three sectors

negative, realty -- let's drill down on the big stories we're watching today bertha coombs. sara is having a look at trump's reaction to the ecb. julia boorstin has a look into crypto let's start with the market and the tweet from president trump this morning that sparked the rally. the president tweeting had a very good telephone conversation with president xi of china we will be having an extended meeting next week in japan we will begin talks prior to that meeting bob? >> reporter: federal and central banks moved early on with draghi's comments. steve's right, it's an absolute lay-up you see oil up $2. chevron's up all the big oil stocks, some of the smaller oil services, all up 3, 4% on the day that's a nice move, we haven't seen that in a while

the metal stocks are all up on the president's tweets these are trade-related names. one sector that hasn't been moving is generally those big financial service names like mastercard, visa, western union. and that's because of that facebook proposal on crypto currency guys, back to you. >> all right, bob, thank you chip stocks also seeing a big pop today. bertha coombs at the nasdaq. >> i am starting to think of them as a tweet sensitive stocks apple leading the charge along with the chips relies obviously on chinese manufacturing. british shares topping 200 bucks for the first time since may 9th. and then you've got the suppliers, chip makers leading the nasdaq 100 gainers today seeing the best one-day percentage gain for xilinx since january 24th but take a look at the semiconductor index. and from the start of the tariff

worries last month which began with tweets. >> bertha, it did indeed thank you very much for that now before china's comments this morning, president trump was already actively tweeting about another subject, the european central bank and sara has more on that. >> so we know that president trump has been taking shots at our own central bank now he's going after the european central bank too and mario draghi, president trump tweeting this morning, quote, mario draghi just announced more stimulus could come which immediately dropped the euro against the dollar making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the usa. they have been getting away with this far for years along with china and others and then he later tweeted about the german stock markets german dax way up. very unfair to the united states so what? well, trump could be indicating he's going to target europe and others for weakening their currencies in the form of tariffs, one of his favorite tools.

he could also use the auto tariffs which are still hanging out there and could disproportionately hurt europe in trade as well we know the commerce department is already looking at ways to punish countries who manipulate way their currency while the president says it's unfair that their stimulating now, europe's inflation rate is a lot lower than ours, 1.2%. we are tracking at 2%. europe's growth rate is a lot slower than ours, 1.2% more than half of what we tracked in the first quarter that's why draghi is stimulating. oh, and by the way, there's their stock market ours is better, ours is about 1% off records. the dax, it's about 5% off records. so that's why draghi is simulating whether fair or unfair but you've got to pay attention to the tweets and the threats from the president >> and trump wants to win. so it doesn't matter what their growth rate is, even if it's sub our growth rate. he wants to continue on the path

regardless of what our inflation data says compared to europe he wants to win on a real basis. >> the euro has also recovered intraday probably because of the tweet. also clearly pointing out that mario draghi has a single mandate, which is inflation. president trump wouldn't want everything else that mario draghi has on his plate. a waker economy is the main point. i am just saying this is including the banks, deutsche bank's up 3% the euro stocks up 1.5 this is not good for that sector in particular. mario draghi said, quote, there's considerable head room to ease. i just don't think that that's true at this stage but most importantly of all, the way in which last time this helped in europe a little bit. it wasn't a huge amount, it was a little bit but we're not in an environment

where necessarily the euro gets that much weaker and on top of that whether trade's really going to pick up given the border trade wars that we're facing >> i think he just wanted to hear that by any means necessary, global growth is going to be intact they're going to aide to whatever it is and i think that's what the markets truly wanted to hear but if you're a shortseller, how do you short the market in the face of this you have trump and the fed you have the fed who has a number of rate cuts in their back pocket. trump has a number of positive trade headlines, which we saw one of them today. it's not even a positive headline it was a tweet it was basically, hey, this is what just happened there >> it's confirmation that they are actually going to meet at g20. >> it is important, but haven't we known that they were going to meet and by the way, if something goes wrong in the talks in the next couple of days, maybe they're not going to meet. so for a shortseller to have

that much in the back in the chamber for the bulls, to me it's idiocy to be short in this mark the >> they'd be losing today if they were short. the euro's stocks was up 2% ahead of u.s. markets. a dovish backdrop for europe steve has a preview for us >> thanks very much. if that's the forecast who are now looking for a 2019 cut, 67% expecting a cut this year in a direct reversal from the last meeting 22% say the fed is on hold, and 11% actually still think a hike is coming there's a fraction of the 45 respondents who say that rate cut could be announced tomorrow. but most say sometime between july and september or after september more likely. the reason for the change the economy's generally surprised to the downside jobs and specifically trade-sensitive sectors like manufacturing have disappointed. retail sales and services, they have surprised to the upside and the cnbc rapid update for gdp, it was 2.5% for the second

quarter. it's now down to 1.9% wealth >> steve, do you think the president made a cut less likely today by his positive tweet on trade and the market reaction we've got from it? >> reporter: um, i do. i think that what you want is if you really want a rate cut is you want maximum trade turmoil i think that's one of the scenarios i think the fed has to puzzle over, wait a second, we're 1% below the lows and things look like they're going okay if they're not going to have additional tariffs. i think that's one factor. it's not the only factor i think the other factor is the president commenting at all has to have some effect inside that room >> steve, just because it's out there today, and the president is so critical and sort of envious of mario draghi for the stimulus that they are getting over there, does the president have the authority to demote jay powell from the chairman role? yes or no, it's hard to figure out. >> well, you know, it's kind of funny. i've been thinking about this,

sara and it says he can be demoted or he can be fired for cause. i don't know if that means just because, just because the president wants to so, i don't know nobody really knows. it's not been tested it's not been tried. in general presidents have stayed away from commenting on the federal reserve and creating volatility inside central banks. that's something we see inside a lot of third world countries we haven't seen that here a lot. >> we'll see what happens. turning now to the big corporate story we are watching today. facebook's push into crypto. our julia boorstin has the details from cannes, france. >> reporter: that's right. facebook announcing that it's creating a new digitat currency called "libra" which it's doing along with 20 other companies. now libra will be run by a nonprofit based out of geneva, switzerland. and unlike bitcoin, libra will be based on real money, a basket of currency in order to limit its volatility now facebook will not be running

libra, this new crypto currency, but creating a new subsidiary called co libra, that is going to be a digital wallet which will operate both as a stand-alone app as well as what's appand messenger which will allow people to send and receive libra around the world with no fees facebook does plan to add financial services from which it could profit down the line it will keep its information separate from its advertising business so those two businesses will not be connected, and there will be none of that financial information used for ad targeting. >> julia, some interesting comments in the announcement do you feel this is more targeted to the unbanked as well as a threat and a challenge to existing payment infrastructures in developed markets >> reporter: i would say this does seem like a massive opportunity for the unbanked, especially when you look at the fact that in developing markets,

we are already seeing a lot of digital payments for things, perhaps even more so than we are here in the u.s. and i think it's interesting to use as the analogy what wechat has done and what we are seeing in the asian markets in terms of payments and other services being layered on top of social media. now, this is different because it's using a crypto currency but i do think that there may be more of an appetite for that abroad than here where you can easily send money to other people in the u.s. if you have a service like venmo this is really for more international payments it's very hard now to send money overseas if you're not going to be doing a big transaction but this will make it much easier for anyone to send money between countries. >> thank you, joola. we are also watching shares of beyondmeat again >> it was a rollercoaster. hi there, sara shares rallied after the company said it will start offering plant-based ground beef in

grocery stores surpassed 200 per share hitting a new all-time high of about $202 before shedding gains the stock up nearly 600% since the company went public about six weeks ago. if beyond meat does stay above 200, its market cap would be north of 12 billion making it more valuable than tiffany, under-armour, and dominoes pizza. even at its current valuation, the company is worth more than wendy's, swrak in the box, red robin, and good times combined, rival and possible foods by the way is valued at 2 billion back to you guys >> asteinicing statistics there. thank you very much for that still to come here on the "closing bell," we will take a deep dive into how the market trades, and what could happen if powell and company were to take a more hawkish stance. plus, crypto expert mike in of course ovogratz says why he thinks libra is a game changer

and here's a check on our data tracker. real estate, falling 0.9%. and april arts were revised. also building hikes. dow is up 369 points 'lbeig bk.wel rhtac moving is hard.

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go to xfinity.com/moving to get started. we have got 43 minutes left of trade let's send it over to mike for today's market dashboard >> here's what we're going to be looking at for the next hour or so it is not easy to trade. we are all focused on the fed easing i will show you a history around how the markets do around that period of time an antidote to anti-trust. rally for real look at some of the statistics, see if there's much substance beneath the surface. and lay it on the line, it is not about hawaii take a look at the dow jones industrial average, leading up to and then subsequent to an initial fed rate cut now there are two different lines because the first one in

blue is when there is a recession associated with this easing cycle the second one in orange is when there is not a recession it is a whole lot better for us not to go into recession but you don't know in advance because at the time of the first cut you were not always in recession, you did not always think you were in recession, and yet subsequently -- you will note they were both positive, but when you had been headed for a recession, the market has been weak heading into it now let's look at an even more interesting and confusing chart of the way the s&p has traded at times when the fed, when the markets anticipated an ease, but did not get one. so you would think that it was going to fall apart at that point. no, don't worry about any of these lines exactly when they were or how much they went up or down just the fact that it was totally unpredictable how the market was going to do at this point after you did or did not get an ease. this is the current period so we've actually been outperforming the typical path

leading up to a point where the market anticipated a rate cut. so that gives you a little bit of prep for tomorrow, all of which is to say nobody knows exactly how the market on a first reflex is going to trade off of whatever news we do get >> very helpful, mike as always, thank you. let's bring in tobias to discuss. how do you trade an ease if that's what we are setting up for? >> so you have to assume the date of the ease, and i think a lot of the conclusion earlier suggesting it's probably not going to happen tomorrow but if you do get an ease, typically financials do well the only time they really didn't do well was back in 2007-08 time frame when there was a lot of dilution as banks were raising capital. but if you look at the previous periods, that was really the only consistent rate was buying financials you could have brought tech at certain time you didn't really want to go

defensives so, you know, it tends to be better for the market. but i think the critical issue that you got to think about is if we see a very sharp re-steepening of the ill curve post the inverse, that's usually the telltale sign that you've got a recession coming and then at that point you want to think risk off. but we need to see that first before you want to go through that kind of trade >> tobias, do you think the fact that the ecb is moving closer towards more easing itself will change how the fed thinks about whether or not it should be doing the same >> i'm not sure. i mean, i'm not privy to the conversations with the central banks and if they are doing something coordinated or not but i do think part of the reason for the reaction to it is we are going a little bit back to that tina perspective, there is no alternative because the yields are so poor or fixed instruments are negative in europe also i'd add that sentiment on this rally has been pretty

crummy so our primary metric, our panic model went into panic on friday, even though the market was within 2% of its all-time highs. and that's just to suggest the positioning isn't showing up investors are not sitting there saying we want to cheer this rally on again, defensives has been up very aggressively. you look at today's market, utilities are down, the staples are down the things that are leading are trade-sensitive, tech names, industrials, materials things that would be more cyclically sensitive. so the market is acting in a pretty rational way. >> so, tobias likes financials, if the federal reserve does prepare for a cut, what sector do you want to be in, in that scenario >> i think if the fed cuts, you want to be in growth i think that you have to go to what the market has thrown out already. so you have to go to technology. you have to go to a lot of these names that have been thrown out, the chemical names, the paper names, those that have been

under the radar, cyclical names and also homebuilders. we've seen those under the radar perform as of late, and i think they will continue to perform. >> tobias, if we do see that g20 meeting that is suggested will take place by the president, and there be some positive outlook from it, what sector do you want to buy >> i would look at semis in particular, technology my only caveat or remote hesitancy on tech, i agree with if you want to go growth, maybe health care that got beaten up on the medicare for all stuff. the only issue i have with tech right now is if you look at the price, the book of tech relative to the price the book of financials, it's back to the highs we saw in 2000 and 2009. so, justin, these stocks are far from cheap and relatively quite expensive right at points where they stopped being the leaders so i'd rather play the cyclical component which is semis rather than tech across the board

>> it's just stunning to see the ten-year yield hovering at 2%. if we break below that, ultimately is that bullish for stocks in this environment >> so i think part of the problem with looking at buying yields is the whole qe aspect as well as what is going on internationally. if you have really incredibly low yields, something that just behooves me, why would you not buy a 2% treasury yield rel toifb paying somebody to borrow from you, which is kind of odd >> very odd. tobias, thank you. >> thank you we've got about under 40 minutes left to go, 37 minutes left to go before the closing bell dow sitting pretty here, up more than 370 points. s&p 500 up 1%. nasdaq doing well. semis in particular are doing well in hopes of the g20 meeting between trump and xi two firms getting bullish on social media sending pint risk

and snap chats we will breathe wnk osdo after today's "word on the street" after this short break twenty-four people came together to sign an agreement that created the stock exchange. just the right elements coming together. it started when scores more people came together, just down the street and traded bonds that helped pay for the revolution, and the nation it created. it started in an office on the corner where the right people witnessed the telegraph and brought information and humanity together forever. it started with the markets, bringing together steel and buildings and silicon and medicine and rockets. we believe the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. it's why for eighty years we've connected ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. so that every day together, it all starts again.

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welcome back to "closing bell." time now to get word on the street btig raising its price target on snap from $20 to $15, one of the highest price targets on the street actually. the firm increasing its financial forecast saying street expectations on user growth are, quote, simply too low.

>> wedbush, $33 price target the firm says pinterest is well positioned to capture wallet share. and raymond james to underperform citing rich valuations and mounting margin concerns steven, the pinterest one pointing to the much lower average revenue per user than the likes of facebook suggesting that they can close that gap and force these around 40% topline growth over the next couple of years. and on that measure relative recent ipos, the valuation looks very attractive. >> so it's up 47% since their ipo. and this was one that i really don't understand you would think that someone else can come and grab and eat their lunch and take them away, and they shouldn't have been around for a while, and let alone as long as they have been, and now they are public. so i don't understand how someone doesn't encroach on their ground but i do believe that now the smaller they are, the more curated or the more independent

they are i think they do have a place for this, and i don't think the amazons of the world can come along and just sort of stamp them out so i think that the investor community was sort of perplexed in the beginning, and are i was pleasantly surprised if you've been holding this ipo. >> what about the home builders being above valuations >> i'm still lennar. for me you can't have it both ways when there was thought to be an interest-raising environment, they thought that was going to stamp out any hopes for the home builders to regain and now you have a falling interest rate environment. you have home ownership on the rise and all these stocks are performing year-to-date up in the higher 20%, lower 30%. you can't have it both ways. >> do you want higher in terms or lower in terms? >> so i think you've got to go right across the board in the middle toll is your higher end, but you've got to be in the polty or the lennar

polty is up. 33% year-to-date watch the $50 price level in lennar that is the barometer for success or failure, even though it's been performing well. if it breaks 50 to the downside, that's where you might want to exit the grade >> we've got 32 minutes to go here before the close strong rally day on wall street here are the three things driving the action president trump tweeting that he is talking to president trump xi, and they will be having a meeting at g20 hopes for a dovish fed happening tomorrow and industrials in technology leading the charge in this overall market >> time now for a cnbc update with courtney reagan >> here's what's happening at this hour. a powerful 6.7 earthquake jolted northwestern japan earlier today prompting officials to issue a tsunami warning which was lifted about two hours later. thousands of females though lost electrical power, and bullettrain services were suspended. but there were no reports of serious injuries or damage president trump says he will hold trade talks with chinese president xi next week at the

g20 summit in japan. larry kudlow telling reporters he would not speculate on the outcome. >> we want structural changes on all the items, and -- of the ip that forced transfer of technology we've got to have something that's enforceable >> still a lot to work out there. former maine governor paula paige will bartend he will join his wife anne wow be working there again as a server the restaurant posted photos on social media showing the two wearing seeingles t-shirts that's the cnbc news update at this hour. back over to you, will >> thank you very much for that. we'll see you next hour. let's send it over to mike >> it was two weeks and one day ago that we had all those multiple reports about these different divisions of the government that were targeting big tech companies for

anti-trust and privacy concerns and all the rest of it those stocks took a big hit. take a look at a chart of facebook, alphabet, and amazon year-to-date encompassing that moment in june 3rd so obviously they're all up pretty nicely with the exception of alphabet on a year-to-date basis. here was was june 3rd, though. that was the sell-off related to all those anti-trust concerns. at the time it kind of felt like it was fragile psychology of investors. it's basically been a perfect time to buy that bounce. facebook on its crypto kushsy news today not moving much, but it has had a great run of up 17% or so. so just a great example of when everybody has decided that everything has changed and the government's got it out for these companies, it -- to follow those. we don't know if those are going to flare up again. but it's interesting how things have gone the last couple weeks. >> it is indeed, mike. and google's significantly behind the others there as well.

and that was a big earnings miss >> revenue miss. a lot of blame on the company for failing to explain it. >> got an investment yesterday coming up, we have just under 30 minutes, 28 minutes left the dow is hot by 355 points tech and materials lead the charge coming up a top payments analyst will join us to break down facebook's crypto announcement and the impact it could have on names like visa and mastercard >> we'll speak with the former head of the semiconductor d y iniso n anwhcha s key for this sector.

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welcome back to the "closing bell." shares of facebook trading earlier, highs following the unveiling of its new crypto currency libra the crypto currency is getting support from payments companies visa, paypal, and mastercard let's bring in lisa ellis. very good afternoon to you we were discussing this earlier. is this more targeted at people who are unbanked or is it targeted at people like you and i? >> it's mostly the first one, definitely where crypto currencies are valuable in payments

specifically is mostly for the case where it's an alternative to a fiat currency that's unstable or suffers from very high inflation so that's really in the developing markets >> why is facebook doing this? >> so, for facebook, it's really about empowerment of commerce over their platform. i know the statistic is something like 85% of facebook users across all their platforms are actually outside of the u.s. and europe they're actually in india, in latin america, and so exactly those users are the ones that are sitting outside the financial system >> it's interesting because facebook said in their release earlier, quote, we believe that people will increasingly trust decentralized forms of governance is that true, though, for people in developed markets where you would say that banks haven't been as put out of joint by the tech crazes as other sectors because people want that trust, that regulation to know that their money is safe? >> yeah. i think that's tbd, maybe where

the placements players including me might take issue a little bit. in the payment systems still, the value of the brand and the security around brands and payments is extremely important to consumers that's why players like master card and visa and paypal are so powerful because the consumers trust the security that's intrinsic in the brand >> so that's where i was going to go here so we're all worried about investing in facebook because the privacy concerns so should we feel better about it now because master card and visa and all these big boys and girls that are running this environment of payments are actually at the steering wheel versus a facebook? should i feel better about privacy or should i worry about privacy when it comes to facebook running libra >> well, you should feel better about it when it comes to libra and the payment system, putting aside i guess the broader facebook organization. it's a really important litmus test for crypto currencies if

the payments players are willing to participate and so the fact that visa, master card, and paypal and stripe are on board as founding members means that they have sufficient confidence that it's going to meet their bar which is very high around security, around privacy, around, you know, technology and stuff >> what is this going to mean for those stocks? is this any kind of needle-mover what should you be doing with visa or master card right now? >> i think they're the mvps of payments you can't go wrong with those three in payments. in many ways this de-risks for them that's the most important thing for master card and visa is that crypto currenties are sort of out there as a long-term risk to them as these alternative payment systems. so being direct participants in a leading crypto currency system de-risks that for them because they will help architect it and help design it in a way that works for them >> steven, does this alter the buy case of facebook

>> i think it does and i think that everyone that was worried about privacy concerns and about advertisers leaving, we really haven't seen that happen. facebook is up 44% it's outperformed master card and visa but i do believe that they're association, a master card and visa associating with an entity that facebook is starting up really gives credibility and allows people to say maybe it's not all clear, but it allows them to say, hey, facebook is not a worrisome thing when it comes to currency or something a fiat currency. and i think that's big for facebook >> lisa ellis, thank you for joining us >> terrific, thank you we've got about 20 minutes to go here before the closing bell dow is up triple digits, 358 points at the moment s&p good for a gain of about 1%. the sectors that are shining the brightest today are those that are tied to trade and trill's at the top of the list, technology also having a good day fuelled by semis up next we've got your last chance trade >> also, mike novogratz says

crypto could be a game-changer for the industry and here's a check on the emerging markets, etf. beineen is on its st sce january 4th. we are back in a couple. .or tri. $4.95. delivery drones or the latest phones. $4.95. no matter what you trade, at fidelity it's just $4.95 per online u.s. equity trade.

18 minutes left of last chance trades. >> i've given you match, i've given you mcdonald's, i've given you ford today it's ge. so you laughed at it, and, yes, i want bigger risk reward for myself in this trade i think that everyone knows the negative stories around ge, and everyone knows it's a restructuring story on ge. technologically, though, it's starting to build a foundation here at the 51-week moving average. up over 40% year-to-date so i think if you could -- first of all, if i asked you what you think about ge earnings coming up, you would say who cares. everyone expects them to totally -- >> so this is a technical. >> but you would also say i think it's probably expected that they're going to miss or it's probably not expecting that they are going to beat or have

anything substantive just tell me what's going to happen with power, tell me what's going to happen longer term with ge, and i will tell you that it's probably a double from here if they start to get a little bit of traction in their restructuring. >> so you mentioned the 50-day moving average what is that level >> it's around $10, but it's $10.02 right now, 50-week moving average. so that's the one to key in on we dipped down there today, and then you have the tweet from president trump and around the overall market so keep an eye on that, but that's something to shoot against from a technical level you have to have the stomach for this one this is not a lay-up, this is not shore money. >> great to see you as always. another 10-year hit its lowest level since september 2017 earlier today >> hi, will. we're all expecting the beginning of the two-day fed meeting. but mario draghi really stole

the spotlight this morning more buckets of liquidity, look at the intraday of tens. maybe it was the president's tweet that made it do a u-turn last time we were closing at these levels was september of 2017 that's minus 32 basis points, the lowest closing yield ever for a ten-year boom. will, sara, back to you. >> thank you very much we have 15 minutes left of trade. here's where we stand. we are up by 357 points on the dow. the high is up 414 risk on sentiment for sure tech leads, and the nasdaq is up next up, trade the close technology's on pace for its best month now since march 2016. here's a check on some of the leaders as we take you to break. [ "done melody" plays ]

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12 minutes left to go. dow sitting pretty up more than 364 points at the moment biggest winner in the dow is boeing, 3m, 19, a lot of those industrials, and multinationals tide to trade. proctor gamble and disney, the defensive staples are the losers in the dow today but not a whole lot. >> best buy now selling fitness equipment. the retailer working with companies like flywheel sports and nordictrac best buy says dedicated fitness spaces will be coming to more than 100 years the stocks up 3% meanwhile boeing's stock jumping. the international airlines group which earns british airways announced its intent to buy 200 boeing 737 max airplanes boeing's up 5.5%

>> in consumer lands, shares of kellogg falling today on news it will take a pre-tax charge of about $35 million to restructure its north american business. this comes after the company sold keebler it's been a loser in the consumer staple space last year, down 16% and one of the few staples that's lower so far this year in a defensive environment a lot of the food names have been bid up kello kellogg, slow grow, slow to turn around. >> the boeing deal, share price up, 5% better news on trade from the president's treat. i was emailing back and forth with phil who's traveling back from the air show, saying it was a good move for them they're not going to take

delivery of the first plane until 2022 or 2023 until they know it's fine so the boeing share price up a lot on the back. exactly what the financials are, we don't know. >> air bus is getting the orders and boeing is getting none. >> on day one, which phil said the boeing order day was going to be today. and it was. >> let's go to josh lipton what should we watch josh? >> here's what we expect from adobe after the close, eps of $1.78 on revenue of $2.7 $2.78 billion, checked in with brent till of jeffreys, he wants to see signs the company can keep generating 20% growth with 40% operating margins. there are two engines for the country, the digital media

company and the digital experience up next we are covering all the angles of the market in our closing count down. >> here are the winners and losers in the dow as we head to break. we'll be right back, the dow is up 339 points. ♪

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welcome back just over 5 minutes left of trade up by 340 points on the dow. time for the closing countdown kevin, a macro day today more than a micro day today >> amazing this is normally a day that frustrates traders because it's a slow day ahead of the fed meeting. not today, though. as mario said, you want to see dovish, i'll show you dovish to start the day, then you had trump news, facebook news, an interesting trading day today. a lot of big moves the most surprising, though, with bonds higher and the 10 year yield lower look how strong the financials are today that's a head scratcher of a trade. >> some people arguing if the

fed eases it'll help the economy, that will benefits the banks. so does this raise the stakes for powell tomorrow having such a strong rally into a high stakes fed meeting >> you know, i think it's more the data, sarah, that's putting some question marks in this. that being said, all things being equal. remember the probability of a rate cut is still low probability wise i think what you're going to see is they won't lower rates in this meeting but instead of shocking the market he'll guide towards a rate cut lower in the year july or september, that's my opinion there. >> what about adobe? >> adobe is interesting, earlier today the one day market mover was $11.40 it's down to $10 so implied volatility has

actually come down during the day today. pretty interesting. >> what about the semis, they are one of the bright spots in today's action, very china sensitive. is it clear now that we know there's a meeting for g20 or do you expect the group to be volatile >> today is a good day for the semis but nothing is for sure on a china meeting between trump and xi jingping. >> under three minutes to go let's send it to mike. >> looking at some of the rhythm and flow under the surface look at the advancing versus declining volume, this was about 85%, advancing volume. it's strong. it's closer to 80% now but still strong this is the second one in two weeks to be above 80%. a lot of times that says maybe there's buying interest here

and then look at the spl, the low volatility stocks against the high stocks. you see we've nosed above high beta, seeking some risk here this is the second spurt we've gotten of this month that says maybe these stocks have gotten beaten down, look at it over a six month period and you'll see it's a close race but bea is about to close the gap a little bit. this is late december, you see it rode high until may and now it's neck and neck pretty decent underpinnings in this rally but difficult to say until we get the fed news tomorrow. >> hard to say if this is it for the chip stocks but investors want to get in when the coast is clear, leading the rally today up nearly 4% today the other thing we're seeing the

chinese tech stocks many of these are beaten down, 40, 50% from their highs are also rallying so there is hope for next week's meeting. the important thing today is everybody got everything they wanted, euphoria on the federal reserve, ecb and on china talks. so all the trade related stuff we saw, oil up 2 bucks there meadows and mining stocks, industrials, boeing's strong, 3m's strong. we had some nice moves up here, honey well, merk disney. not a big expansion because of the some super gap names like google, facebook had strong moves throughout the year. this is probably the worst set up going into a fed meeting in years why? because we have euphoria on the

ecb, trade talks, powell had better thread this needle perfectly. he better imply the economy is doing well but they're ready to cut rates at any time. there's the closing bell closing off just highs of the day, the dow jones industrial average up 350 points. we're 20 points away from a historic high on the s&p >> welcome everyone to closing bell >> let's check in on how we finished the day here on wall street the dow high was 414 points finished up 356. s&p up 1% and nasdaq led the charge up 1.4% tech indeed was nearly at the top of the sector performance at 1.7. industrials led the charts

we saw yields tank today and financials looking in europe or the u.s. played a part, risk on was the sentiment. >> if you're looking for risk, i mention i.p.o.s, how about chewy up another 10% this is a company that went public, they sell pet foods and supplies on line priced at 22, and now selling at 37 fiverr, crowd strike, chewy, there is a fever in the i.p.o. market right now even if you have flops out there big ones like uber and lift. we're going to talk facebook we'll discuss whether this is a game changer for cryptocurrency. michael novogratz will talk to us about that.

mike san tonally, we got the one, two punch central bankers and president trump tweeting about a trade meeting. that's all it took. >> both of those things striking a market that i think was defensively positioned and cautioned. we'll talk about the merle lynch survey, that came out before the market opened this morning everyone said people are negative at the moment, maybe it gave encouragement to embrace the bullish moods. cred it spreads stay tight you can support equity markets for a while. we haven't talked about earnings because they've been flat lining. >> what's your take on the way we've seen yields move so low yet equity markets continue to ignore is that a recession signal. >> i don't know. it is a signal there's a weakness in the system if you look at the data, the

manufacturing information, inflation, it's telling you there's a lot of weakness. i'm surprised the market is behaving as well as it is. i've been pretty bullish the last several years this is the most cautious i am not that i think the market is going to roll over but it's limited until the data gets better. >> what's the target >> 35.5. if i was more bullish i'd be inclined to up the number since we're close but i don't think that's how it's going to play. >> you're not in the camp saying stimulus is good -- that's what the message is, the german market 2% and the u.s. is cl clammering for a cut. >> people have to save money because they can't afford to retire it's not good for spending it's a sign for business managers there's a weak

underlying environment and they make less capital. i think pushing rates lower is not the help everyone thinks >> what's your take on this? >> i think that clearly based on the fund manager survey everybody is on one side of the boat at the current juncture i don't necessarily understand the thesis behind bad news being good news and a fed cut providing further support for the market i think you're seeing right now yes, some of the survey data looking soft but the hard data hasn't rolled over, so we have the combination of a fed sending a dovish signal at a time the economy looks like it's still okay something needs to give at the end of the day you can't have the trade, easy fed and economic growth. one of those has to fall by the wayside. >> let's talk about the latest bank of america, merle lynch survey which says the most crowded market trade, tech came

in second. the point about u.s. treasuries being crowded does come down in part to where yields are in europe we have another sign of that today. >> that's for sure it reflects how the markets behaved leading up to the survey this is fund managers saying what they believe the most crowded trade is among their peers. how do you know that look at what yields have done. clearly they feel the market moved faster than they believed fundamentals would have had you. honestly some of the other numbers say that to if you look at future positioning, treasury bonds. so yes, it does seem clear that people are really kind of piling on this low yield strtrade. it doesn't mean it reverses in had a violent way. it's interesting that a risk offtrade is the most crowded. >> if you see a headline like this that the most crowded trade is treasury you wouldn't expect the stock market to be 1% from a record high. >> the issue for investors here

isn't are stocks and yields moving in the same direction you looked at cashed in markets in fed moves and ask yourself are you going to get two fed rate cuts between now and the end of the year? we need two cuts in order for yields to continue to rally. that suggests yields need to move the other way i think stocks can continue moving higher but rates need to edge higher as well. >> why do we see banks rally today here in in the u.s. and europe >> it may have done it today, you ask if i buy into this trade going forward, i wouldn't. if yields continue to be soft like they are, banks are going to be under pressure in the u.s., overseas and the stock market is going to have a hard time continuing. can the market get excited that central banks are going to bail us out -- if you look at the manufacturing data, the survey data is god awful but the

manufacturing data is not coming in that strong either and the expectations are tanking if we havely onner interest rates, markets have a hard time going forward. >> if we get a fed cut, though, maybe not tomorrow, you maybe soon in july would that reverse the bad trends on the economy? >> it takes a long time for that to pass through the system this data has been weakening way before discussions of trade in the last few weeks ism peaked in august the manufacturing data peaked a year ago china's data has kind of rolled over there's softness in the system that central banks are trying to get their hands on. >> you sound like you're about to cut your s&p target, why above 3000 >> i haven't heard you like this in a while. >> this is a positive thing that david was saying rates being low, this is not recession nar. this is slow, uninspiring growth that wants to kind of hover around this nonrecessionary but

nonexciting place. and stocks do okay on it but do they rally strong on it? it's hard to say say p p. >> there's this pain trade where stocks go higher and you have dueling sources out there, the trump and power put. neither gentlemen want to see the stock market go down they want to get the market up and we saw that. >> the market has been behaving as it might get a dovish fed shift further when it doesn't need it. that means the fed struck at a higher level so the market does not have to tank as much as you might otherwise think before the fed becomes much more active in an easing mode in terms of trade, yes, you can lift that weight off the market at some point, presumably by choice i think on some level that matters but to me you can say the market rallied strongly you can also say it's flat for 17

months because it's held in place. >> thefed has painted themselves into a corner the market is expecting for them to do something. if they don't do something the market is not going to like that, if they dodo something, perhaps it's unnecessary and uncut, which is not how things are priced so i think they're damned if they do, damned if they don't. >> we have an update on adobe. >> adobe reporting $1.83 the forecast was $2.7 billion. the q 3 guide adobe says to look for $1.95 on 2.8 billion that's light versus expectations. digital media segment revenue $1.89 billion. and the digital experience segment that is $784 million, represents 34% growth. calls at 5:00 p.m. eastern and

we'll be on it >> the stock initially dropped briefly but flat at the moment adobe's ceo will break down the results in an interview tomorrow at 11:00 on "squawk alley. a little soft but nothing significant. what's your take >> pretty steady performer the stock itself is actually under performed the software sector in the last year or so. it was a giant performer in the few years before that. the fundamental story everyone knew what was going on not being able to be too decisively beyond this it's not surprising the stock is going to wait and see here i look at the free cash flow yield on expensive stocks. this is in the five-year average. >> just wanted to bring trump headlines. the president is speaking and we'll bring you the video as soon as we have it he does say that the u.s. and china negotiating teams are starting to talk tomorrow, it

has to be a good deal. reiterates that xi is a friend and they are prepared to talk about the future together. >> also asked if he wanted to mote fed chair jerome powell and said let's see what he does. upping the pressure ahead of that topic tomorrow as well. >> he said the ecb has helped that part of the world and he wants a level playing field. is that a risk that the president demotes powell is that a market risk? >> i can't imagine that would play through it would be havoc if he did. >> you can't imagine he would go through with that? >> yeah. i assume legally maybe he can. i have no idea but the practicality of it is crazy. >> does he need to has he not seen a significant pivot from the fed whether under his guidance, pressure or not, and quite possibly we'll see a

cut tomorrow or july. >> it's like he wants a villain. >> that's what i mean. he's getting what he wants anyway on that point i go back to he shouldn't have tweeted about president xi today that's probably slightlilessened the chance of a cut tomorrow. >> you want the gratification on the day you're announcing your re-election campaign tonight. >> there's no way they change the outcome of the open market activity is going to be based on a tweet. the short end of the curve is meaningful inverted. the fed, if they move one or two times they'll probably unwind that so there is something that's more than just sentiment here. the market doesn't like it inverted short end of the curve. >> david by this point, the market doesn't seem too fazed with the issue of fed credibility. should it be >> that's to me the big risk i'm looking at over the next 12 months say we do get a fed rate cut and

we need to separate what the fed should be with what they will do what if we get a deal on trade, the economy chugs along, valuations expand, now we're at the beginning of next year, does the fed come out and hike rates? now we're oscillating back and forth. >> they got the low inflation missing target, surveys weakening, they have ammunition if they want to cut. >> there is cover to cut rates but i'm not sure -- >> the 1990s playbook was that you had a couple cuts and picked it back up again >> they were just hiking last year. >> if mario has, quote, considerable head room, the fed has more than ample. >> we're not even negative yet. >> jonathan, david thank you both for joining us. he is one of wall street's biggest cryptocurrency bulls, up next michael novogratz weighs in

on facebook's cryptocurrency. >> whether new hopes for trade deals with china will have a new hope for beaten down chip stocks

very good day on wall street for the bull stocks jumped and just to close off their highs the high of the day dow was up 415 points it closed up 353 points to its highest close since early may same for the s&p 500 the nasdaq doing the best, up 1.4% big rally in technology especially the semistocks after president trump tweeted he will meet with president xi at the g20. >> is everybody happy? i don't know why not, ecb dovishness, fed dovishness and euphoria on china and trade. we saw commodity stocks moving up, oil up 4%. small cap energy stocks moving we saw neighbors up 3, 4% overall. that was a nice rally there. the metal stocks moving, the free port automatically move on

high trade steel stocks up 4 or 5%. new highs not so dramatically expanding because the super caps have been the stock market but we saw disney and walmart and honey well all that said this is a rough backdrop for the federal reserve, powell has to thread the needle perfectly if he doesn't imply the market is doing well, the economy is strong, but we're ready to cut rates at a moment's notice. bertha has the big movers. >> apple helping to lead the charge in terms of its weight the stock topping $200 briefly today for the first time since may 9th. definitely the chip and some of those apple suppliers in particular were among the big movers that closed up 4% on the

day, snapping two sessions of smaller losses and big highs here as well market cap well above a trillion dollars at this point. paypal hitting a new high before trading a bit lower on the day other big story, facebook officially launching libra, its cryptocurrency david marcus explained more about the new product this morning on squawk box. >> if you want to compare libra with traditional cryptocurrencies, the first thing and the first big difference is typically cryptocurrencies are investment vehicles or, you know, investment assets rather than a medium of exchange this is designed to be a great medium of exchange, a high quality form of digital money you can use for everyday payments, cross border payments, micro transactions and all kinds

of different things. >> let's bring in michael novogratz, joins us by phone when i hear a big player like facebook and big payment companies like master card and visa, i wonder what it means for bitcoin and your investment in that cryptocurrency. >> i think it's wildly constructive this will be a day that crypto people look back on as one of the most important days in that we just had facebook and, you know, 27 other companies from master card, visa, uber and paypal all credentialize cryptocurrencies last year everyone was saying it was snake oil and all of a sudden the biggest companies in the world are saying cryptocurrencies are going to be part of -- >> mike, we're going to have to interrupt you and listen to the president speaking outside the white house moments ago. >> the relationship with president xi is a very good one. we had a long talk this morning.

[ inaudible question ] >> say it? >> immigration officials say they don't know anything about a planned round up of millions of people. >> they know they're going to start next week when people come into our country and come in illegally, they have to go out and everybody is seeing that as you know mexico has been doing a good job in the last four days, they haven't done that in 25 years i appreciate the job they're doing. guatemala like wise is different than in past administrations with all that being said the democrats should get together and solve the asylum problem and the loophole problem which are very easy to solve [ inaudible question ] >> this just came up and i did the nomination -- this just came up and i think we did it very quickly.

pat shanahan was acting and we put mark esper in, mark is experienced, i think he'll fit in easily. [ inaudible question ] >> let's see what he does. i can tell you that draghi, and the eu if you look at what's going on with the euro, they have a much different stance than our folks do. as you know, he did something today that was very dramatic and frankly, it helped that part of the world so we'll see what happens. they're going to be making an announcement pretty soon so we'll see what happens. i want to be given a level playing field. and so far i haven't been. [ inaudible question ] >> i would be allowed to speak to him very easily, i speak to him anyway

say it [ inaudible question ] >> most likely that's what i'm thinking about doing most likely. pretty soon. we're looking at iran. we have a lot of things going with iran. we're very prepared for iran we'll see what happens let me just say this, we are very prepared. regardless of what goes. we are very, very prepared if you look at what's taken place, if you look at what they've done, if you look at -- i'm not just talking about over the last week. i'm talking about over a long period of years, they've been a nation of terror now we'll see what happens we'll see what happens they are a much different country today than they were two and a half years ago when i came into office when president obama signed that horrible deal, they were screaming death to america. i haven't been hearing that lately [ inaudible question ]

>> i have a meeting on that, actually, this afternoon, before my speech. i'm going down, as you know, to a very big crowd down in florida, orlando and before that i'm having a meeting. so we'll be letting you know [ inaudible question ] >> i have a very good relationship with president xi and we'll see what happens i know we have a chance. i know china wants to make a deal a lot of companies are leafing china in order to avoid the tariffs. i have a very good relationship with president xi we'll see what happens. say it [ inaudible question ] >> we'll see what happens. i think the meeting might very well go well frankly our people are starting to deal as of tomorrow the teams are starting to deal china would like to make a deal,

we'd like to make the deal but it has to be a good deal for everybody. [ inaudible question ] >> they did. they changed their position. so i said we're not going to do that [ inaudible question ] >> you i're going to find out. you're going to find out thank you very much. >> president trump just speaking to reporters moments ago on the south lawn at the white house, sort of clarifying and reiterating the tweets that moved the markets this morning, saying the ecb is helping that part of the world, he wants a evangelic level playing field. and also our people are starting to work tomorrow ahead of the g20 meeting. >> a little hard to hear over the helicopter noise but i asked

the president if he wants to demote j. powell at the fed hp he said, let's see what he does. which implies a conditional relationship based on what the fed decides to do this week. then he shifted gears talking about mario suggesting that he wants is a level playing field with central banks around the world and the field. he's not shy about putting rhetorical pressure on the federal reserve. the question is if he's raising this conditionally to the idea of demoting powell if he doesn't cut interest rates that's the implication of what he suggested there, but i think you have to take it with a grain of salt until we get more clarity from the president that was short and there was a lot of helicopter noise at the same time. let's bring inme michael novogratz. i want to get your thoughts obviously on the facebook news of the day and let you finish up, but just on this breaking

news from president trump. he is -- talk about currency wars -- complaining the euro is undervalued against the dollar this must be music to your ears. >> a president that wants a weaker dollar, a, it's a surprise in general. but, you know, putting pressure on the fed, talking about europe, that just plays into kind of the long goal, long bitcoin story as the president continues to undermine the fed it puts powell in an untenable position no way he can cut rates tomorrow i i don't think he was planning it anyway, i think they cut in july but this theme has been one of the things driving bitcoin, the trade war and facebook today, i think the facebook thing is stunningly important it just credentialized this entire movement. if you're at the state of

wisconsin or the texas municipal teacher's union or any of these pension funds that have been on the 30 yard line, they just moved to the 60 on the other side institutions are investing, you have the harvard, stanford endowments, university of pennsylvania this is going to accelerate the movement it used to be if i invest i might look stupid now it's going to be if i don't invest i might look stupid. so i think there's a big shift going on bitcoin had a big run, a little buy the rumor, sell the fact and consolidates for a while but it wouldn't surprise me to be significantly higher. >> are you selling any bitcoin and buying facebook off this news >> the facebook is two coins, the main coin libra, the payment coin, is going to be what i'll call a stablish coin, tied to a

basket or currenciecurrencies, dollar, yen and others so that will be traded a lot for goods and services but there won't be a great speculative trade on it. and then there'll be a security token which will be ownership of a central bank that's the coin you probably want to be long. this is a long project they announce it today probably doesn't get launched my guess is for a year so there's a lot of hype and now all of a sudden there's a lot of hard work that has to get done. >> it's not like they're using bitcoin. facebook is deciding not to go with bitcoin because it's too volatile so how does that affect the value of bitcoin. >> bitcoin was never trying to be the payment currency. the lane it had is digital gold. this credentializes the whole space. if you're an institution thinking of getting in the

space, the first place you get is bitcoin, we've seen that with every big institution almost that's come into the space so i think you're going to see a lot of different cryptocurrencies telegraphing is launching soon, it's going to be a success it's going to have 270 million users on it. so you get a preview of what the facebook protocol is going to look like with how that looks with telegram in the next six weeks. there's a bunch of exciting and good news coming in the overall space. and that brings energy and investment dollars into the space. >> mike, you mentioned earlier the credibility you think this brings to the crypto space partly because of facebook and the slew of companies investing with them. are you surprised not to see any banks in that list of companies? >> listen, i think they

announced 28 so there's 62 more companies that will be announced. this is a disremediation of the banks. you have peer-to-peer payments and -- i looked at venmo as the fastest growing bank in america collecting new customers facebook is going to be in that battle i'd be nervous if i was venmo. this is going to go directly at them but i think i'd be nervous if i was the banks. this is, you know, cutting out the banks in lots of ways. what's interesting is, you know, visa has 50 million merchants that use the visa card i don't know if it's a year or two years down the road, you're going to be able to use your visa card and pay in libra coin or pay in bitcoin. so in the not too distant future, cryptocurrencies will be you buck tow >> i wonder if this could backfire, mike

we're getting headlines that lawmakers in washington on both sides of the aisle, republicans and democrats are voicing ke skepticism and they want to know more, in fact, requesting a hearing to talk about facebook's plan i wonder if this could bring unwanted regulatory scrutiny to your space >> there is going to be scrutiny in some ways in the long run i think it goes through. if you're sitting in the u.s. and you're worried about china and you see reach out and alley pay as the two dominant forms of payment, in china 90% of payments happen on those two platforms, which are similar to facebook's what's app or, you know, facebook messenger and you think about their ambitions in africa and the mideast. you know, do you want the whole world using we chat as their

payment system or do you want a home grown company having a payment system so it'll be interesting to see how this all plays out but i don't think it get shutdown i think it gets a lot of scrutiny and i think it deserves some scrutiny. but in the long run the technology is moving us this way and i think we want an american competitor, even with a global currency called libra to compete against the big chinese dominant forces. >> michael novogratz thank you for phoning in. >> have a good day. >> our apologies for the interruptions from the president. time for a news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour, supporters for more funding for michigan public schools rallying at the state capital today. they want to promote that michigan needs to become a top ten education state. it's currently ranked 37th by u.s. news and world report.

a new york judge setting a september 12th trial date for michael avenatti prosecutors alleging michael avenatti tried to extort millions of dollars from nike. 15000 kilos of cocaine were seized today at a philadelphia shipping yard, street fall around $750 million, the cocaine was seized from seven containers found aboard a cargo ship. regulators unveiling a plan for easing restrictions for testing super sonic planes it's part of an initiative to bring back super sonics back to the u.s. that's the cnbc news update at this hour. >> really excited about that >> the point is david short, transportation department deputy assistant said let's hope we can get a global consensus, that was

the key thing that stopped concord being profitable >> i think i remember concord wanting to come back. >> great. >> it's a passion project of yours. >> it's not imminent. >> he says it's a long way away. >> chip stocks surging today up next the former head of the semiconductor association breaks down what is at stake for this group. -driverless cars... -all ground personnel...

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welcome back semiconductors running today on hopes of a chinese trade deal after president trump said he and president xi will begin talks prior to the g20 meeting let's bring in george scalise, an industry veteran and former president of the semiconductor industry association thanks for joining us. >> i'm glad to be here >> overall do you feel like tariffs were the right tactics in the this notion you had experience in this back in the 1980s with japan.

>> again, in part yes, it's a good thing to have but as you go back and look at what we had to do in the 1980s to get to a solid arrangement between ourselves and our trading partners there has to be give and take. in the course of that we'll come out with a game plan that everyone benefits by but in the final analysis everyone plays by the rules. that's the key to the whole situation. >> where does all of this leave us, george, in your estimation as far as where we were in the semi cycle. >> in the semi cycle things are going very, very well at this point. when you think back to that period, we established the u.s./japan semiconductor trade agreement in 1986. there were a bumps along the way while we got it in place but once we got it in place everyone knew what the rules were and

played by the rules. as a result of that we have a $500 billion plus industry the u.s. semiconductor companies are the largest suppliers of that product, well over 50% of that industry is made up by u.s. based companies and the others are playing along with whatever talents and manufacturing and technology they have available. >>ing a >>ing. >> are there any competitors that rival the u.s. around the world? >> at this point there are competitors but none that are such a nature or size they're going to be a major effort or major rival for the u.s.-based companies. we still have the best technology, the best manufacturing as a consequence, we have the leadership in the industry. >> it's not chinese but what about samsung, are they close? >> samsung has its own market they deal with, a lot of it has to do with internal products because they have the components

as well as the manufacturing and end products they deal with. so you have to take all that into account but nonetheless we still have a much larger market share and continue to have the best product portfolio and technology leadership as well as manufacturing leadership >> george scalise, thanks for joining us >> thank you up next at&t upping the ante in the streaming service war what this could mean for netflix and apple. that story is next from managing inventory... to detecting and preventing threats... to scaling up your production. giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence.

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at&t's warner media reportedly finalizing a major deal to put its upcoming streaming service on the map that deal worth $500 million, would give warner media a first look by all projects developed by aj adams' bad robot company joining us now to discuss is ed lee from the "new york times." ed, what's the significance of this >> half a billion dollars. it's like another acquisition if you think about it >> top ten pays. >> he's likened to a steven spielberg. it's an apt comparison. >> even with the "lost" finale. >> even with the finale. i think the key is locking down talent in the age of streaming it's a defensive measure as much as it is an offensive measure. which means if he wants to do

stuff for paramount or netflix or disney, he has to get at&t's permission. >> what does that mean 500 million? >> it could go higher. what it means of the things you're producing, we get right of first refusal we want to see it first, decide whether we want it or not, and we're guaranteeing you half a billion dollars it could go higher if we buy more from you >> abrams is a creator he's not a real piece of intellectual property. he's not a franchise he's not the "star wars" movie, he's not marvel. it's a bet to say somebody is going to subscribe to a streaming service based on the star power. >> it's as much as keeping him from the other guys. they're going to try to buy as much stuff as possible, of course there's a content cold war that's developing. it used to be there were producers and creators who made stuff and sold it to any number

of distributors, cbs or netflix or paramount or disney that is changing where i own the content, i keep it for myself. >> is he a movie guy does this suggest the competition for content is movies more than tv. >> he does everything. that's why it's so valuable and the number is as high as it is and some would argue it's not high enough. also we don't know the length of the deal, at least two years probably closer to five or six or seven years it locks him in. it's a risk for him as well if he wants to go elsewhere, it's harder to do that. >> seems like it would give at&t big credibility. >> huge credibility. john stanke who runs it, never had experience in media technology, this is if you want to pay for it, he's willing to pay for it. >> a huge cost of content wars

this is huge for roku, how to play without paying for the content. >> which is why the stock goes up every day. ready, set, cut, the fed wrapping up its two day meeting tomorrow what you need to watch for straight ahead

we've got a news alert on u.s. steel >> so u.s. steel providing a warner on q 2 earnings saying they expect q 2 to come in around 40 cents versus analysts' expaces of 52 cents

reaction to this after hours has been volatile but again warning on q 2 earnings expecting 40 cents versus the 51 cents that analysts expected. president trump taking aim at fed chair jerome of the fed tomorrow when asked earlier this hour a few minutes ago whether he had plans to demote powell by our eamon javers, the president said let's see what he does. >> let's keep in a member of the drexel hamilton advisory board very good afternoon to you ian, do you think the fed is influenced by the president and how does the latest back and forth affect what you expect from tomorrow? >> oh, i don't think there's any question they've lost their independence i mean i don't see how powell could be a human being and not being impacted somewhat by what's going on from the executive branch and some members of congress. i think the rate cut likelihood

is probably 50/50 tomorrow and 100% by the next meeting, and, you know, i think what we've seen here is one of the most insane sort of procedures where we have markets at all-time highs, unemployment at 50 las veg50-year lows and now we're pulling the veto, core leleone, give him an offer he can't refuse to make sure he cuss rate. >> you're not suggesting the fed chair is cutting rates because the president is making him, are you? >> i'm not suggesting that's the only reason, but i'm saying it is a higher likelihood than zero percent, and it seems to get higher and higher as the rhetoric turns up. remember, each day we are getting closer to a reelection, which will start tonight for the president. so i can't imagine that this is going to turn down as far as pressure on the fed to do something. >> luke, what is your take what do you expect tomorrow? do you think the president's

comments are a factor? >> yeah, we expect for the fed to stay on hold tomorrow, but to probably hint that a little bit of down side risk and hint towards the cut at the july 23rd meeting, that's what we thought a few minutes ago. i think when the president brings forth these kind of comments it pushes a little bit the other direction. i worked for the fed for six years and i have seen doves and hawks go at it about qe and interest rate hikes and cuts, and one thing they agree on is the need for fed independence so it may work against the president a little bit. >> you mean work against him, in the sense they're not expecting a cut tomorrow so it would basically swing things in favor of, look, we're not going to move tomorrow? >> right. >> we will leave it for the data to tell us what to do later? >> right so the fed always is going to keep the mandate fromcongress in mind and that's what they're going to shoot for if it is 50/50 and they feel they're getting political pressure, they will probably stick to their guns and show that they do have that independence because in the long run if they don't have their

independence they don't really have anything at all most countries where you have the monetary authority under the thumb of politics, it doesn't turn out very well with inflation. >> luke, in the medium term, not necessarily for tomorrow, does what the ecb and other banks doing influence the fed's need to cut and race to the bottom scenario >> i don't think they react to what central banks are doing, but we see most central banks moving to a dovish it has a lot to do with china and the trade and tariff situation and inflation is pretty low and central banks are reacting to that, but i don't think they react to one another per se. >> ian, given the market action, the fact we ran up so strongly today and have been over two-and-a-half weeks now, does it raise the bar for the language to be just right from fed chair powell tomorrow as he could lay the ground work for a cut? what does he have to say >> well, i mean i think that, you know, you want to see them sort of drop patience and people

sort of pars the words, but i actually don't think it is going to be that big a deal if they don't do anything that dovish tomorrow because people are just going to expect it at the next meeting. so i think that the bid or the underlying put or whatever you want to call it is in the market because the fed has continued to show, at least in my opinion, that they're not independent completely from the executive. >> luke, are you surprised we saw such a big rally in european equities, a one-day move, but when we hear it said there's ample room to ease, do you think he can actually save the economy if the eurozone economy turns immediately south? >> i'm not sure if he can save the entire economy as he said extensively, it needs help from the fiscal authorities, but clearly he is showing his resolves to use the tools the ecb has rabl to them and it is good for equities in the short term, so you get that kind of reaction from equity markets. of course, if we hear the dovish language from the fed, hinting at a rate cut in july -- >> like what, down side risk

>> down side risk i think is what we're looking for the fed over decades worked towards when they want to hint towards a rate hike, they change the balancing risk statement saying they think the risk is to the down side. you will hear a lot about risk and risk management and insurance because that's what it is about. >> thank you both for joining us. >> thank you. >> thank you another company warning of a tariff hangover on its business. details when we come right back. sfx: [phone ringing]

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welcome back retailer lazy boy commenting on tariffs in its earnings report the report for us. >> the stock getting hit after hours, at one point down 9%, now down 7%. eps was in line with estimates here are the comments of the ceo saying that the first calendar quarter was off to a slow start across the home furnishings industry, but weighing in on it more specifically with the hangover of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, it is unclear if the business conditions continue further into our fiscal 020-year. so, wilford and sara, again pointing to tariffs and the impact on the home furnishing industry again, that stock down about 7% in after hours back to you, will.

>> thank you very much for that. back to the broader markets, mike, quite a huge risk on move when you look at the sectors that led the charge, the fact oil was also up 4% whether you are looking at week to day or month to day, up 6% on the month to day, it is an aggressive setup coming into the fed. >> it seems aggressive although i say the market wants to get somewhere towards neutral before something like this. i think it reflects the fact people have been cautious and feel underexposed if you have this conservative dovish move by central banks and that's where you had the grab for stocks today. again, low yields when credit markets are strong, that's going to embolden a bit of brisk on activity it is interesting how it plays with the decision tomorrow does it mean that the fed says, look, the markets are in a good spot right here, even if they panic a little bit after we don't give them a little what they want we can pick up the mess in july. >> or do they say the market is in a good spot because they expect us to cut entrust rates. >> exactly that's the circular. >> and we learned in december we

should do what the market tells us. >> it is a mutual feedback that's why i feel since they didn't signal june and the market is not priced specifically for a june cut, it would be a surprise and very much a preemptive move for them to go. >> lay the ground work. >> as the press conferences go, this will be as tense one as they've have been. you can see it live on "power lunch" and "closing bell" tomorrow. >> we're out of you time today >> "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the marketplace, overlooking new york city time's square i'm melissa leader tonight facebook unveiling its highly anticipated cryptocurrency project libra and rbc's marc mahaney says it is a game changer for the stock taking a bit of a breather after hitting $200 a share today one top technician says the pair bolling stock has more room to run. we start with the market rally and --