in the hiring or in succession plans? >> i would love to be b a fly on the wall if these discussions start happening. >> me, too >> john, thanks very much. from "the wall street journal. thanks for joining me. that does it for the change today and we'll join melissa for "power lunch" which begins now >> see you in a moment, kelly. new at 2:00, president trump calling off a strike on iran just minutes before it was scheduled to happen. the next move for both sides s&p 500 hitting new record highs. should you keep ride iing this n and vice president pence making positive comments about china trade talks and a number of big companies urging them to drop tariff plans "power lunch" starting right now. stocks are in the green, but off the session highs.

s&p 500 hitting record levels. we're about ten points below our intraday high. trying to close at a record high for the first time in more than eight months all three avrnls on track for a third straight week of gains >> we begin this hour in washington president trump explaining why he called off a strike against iran just minutes before it was scheduled. eamon javers has the latest from the white house. >> that's right. the president sat down with chuck here and went through his thinking last night as he contemplated the idea of issue ing the order to begin this attack on iran here's what he said. >> i said how many people are going to be killed sir, i'd like to get back to you on that. great people, these generals came back, said sir. approximately 150. and i thought about it for a second they shot down an unmanneded drone, plane, b whatever you

want to call it, and here we are sitting with 150 dead people that would have taken place probably within a half an hour after i said go aahead and i didn't like it i didn't think it was proportionate. >> so the president cast iing h decision last night in strictly human terms, terms of the casual theties that could have resulted where that leaves us is not clear in the standoff, but for now, the president indicating he's not willing to take military actions that could result in the loss of rain yawn life ch. >> thanks. so with tensions rising, what are the next steps for the u.s. and iran? let's bring in blaze, a fellow at the hudson institute. blaze, do you think, does this give iran the upper hand here because now there has been no u.s. response or is the president mentioned sanctions

last night, is that the appropriate channel? >> thanks for having me. i think president trump played this exactly right it was a calculated decision to send the message to iran and put the ball back in its court what iran's been trying to do is provoke the united states into some sort of disproportionate response that it could then blame on the u.s. and say the u.s. is the provocateur here we're just a peaceful nation he's sent a clear message this he can use force but he's giving iran one last chance so what he's done is put the ball back main their court to s how they can react >> that now raises the question, in the first place, there were these mines, targeting ships in the gulf of oman now they've shot a drone out of the sky. cost about $150 million to farce i understand our sanctions an appropriate

response and isn't the iranian aggression a response to earlier sangs? is the tension across the middle east likely to continue ratcheting up? >> i think that's the proposition that the administration is trying to test iran is under pressure the regime is feeling the pap of economic sanctions that the trump administration has put on it. and it's trying to find a way out and t doing that by lash in out. i think the calculation in tehran is if we can do something bad enough that the u.s. won't be able the tolerate it anymore, they'll say okay, we'll take our sanctions down if you stop shootishoo ing missiles at our trones or stop international shipping. but washington has a different calculation which is we're not going to play that game. but we're going to at wup point say you can stop this and we'll give you an out or there's goin to be consequences

>> so tell me if i'm understanding what you're sort of differences are upg iran is going to say, okay, we'll stop >> i think the sort of the fork in the road that the administration is trying to present to iran. the question is does it keep on doing things that are just below the u.s. response. maybe blowing holes in ships lobbying some mizells that don't really have people

i hope that's not the case clearly, the administration h e hopes that's not case, but i guess we'll have to find out so finally, if the president looking to make a deal with the iranian, what kind of deal are you expecting to come out of this it used to be that secretary pompeo talked about these 12 big demands that they have iran, but now president trump just says stop the nuclear program that's all i'm really asking so what those back channel communications are let's cut out this tengs and let's figure outa way to improve on the the nuclear deal that president obama negotiated, which is what president trump wants and leave everything else to figure out. >> okay. thanks appreciate i from the hudson institute ch.

forget about a 25 basis point rate cut, how about a 50 point cut. one key fed member doubles down. steve liesman sheer with some details and context. >> neel kashkariy staking on one of the most dovish positions, saying he abdicated for a 50 basis point rate cut at the meeting on wednesday kashkari who doesn't vote now, wants them to commit to not raisie ining interest rates untl inflation hits 2%. he said i advocated the rate cut. an aggressive policy action such as this is is required to reanchor our target. you will remember kashkari last voted in 27 and dissented against all three rate hikes now jerome powell expressed some sympathy this week he noted research that shows it's best for the fed to cut more deeply when it's close to

zero rates he said an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure host the market? here we go 100 probability of a rate cut. here we go 78% probability. and a 22% chance of a 15 a basis point cut. the fed did do basis point cuts out of the box in 2001 and 2007. 1998 so 15 out of the box, not that unusual. real fed men and women >> but in terms of how this that i think chaing and how it presented this data, how was it before what did we show before?

what was that nuanced data before it was 50 was 50 a possibility i believe it was late wednesday or thursday i had the possibility of 46. and before that, not much. really wasn't there. we were able to show that there was a greater than 50% probability of three rate cuts this year, but we weren't really looking at this until 50 came along and said we have to take a look at this that's how we're going to do it. i think this is the story right. you can wake up, read your journal. now that it>> now that it's an l possibility. >> new graphics. >> s&p 500 hitting record highs. major averages up between 2 and 3% the dow has moved 2,000 points in three weeks and this past week saw the biggest inflows into equities since march.

yields on the benchmark ten year treasury falling below 2% this week let's find out what investors do joining us is margaret, clear bridgeinvestment up 20% this year strategist for people's united advisers thanks for being with us appreciate it. i want to start with you in terms of what the different markets are telling u, they seem to be conflicting, you got the bond market with the yield going 2% s&p pretty much at r record highs at the same time, we have high yield, we've got all the different part of credit actually acting pretty well. so corroborating with the equities markets how do you read it right now >> well, the issue is those two markets are not telling two different of a story i know that they look like they're really di vir gent, but

they aren't. bond market is price ng lower growth b and expectations and a rulgt in fed policy response where as the stock market again you're pricing cash b flows off these lower rates. you've got an accommodative fed and that's positive for risk asset. looking at two sides with the same coin. that's the same story in credit as well. >> right an the impact in equity, that's always been the argument that lower bond yields can pave the way for higher valuations, but does that break down, is there a limit to which lower rates will actually help and indicate there's something wrong with the economy >> we have to remember why rates are going down in the first place. because fundamentals are weakening. we have 17% in the s&p 500 and if you said is it going to be another 15%, probably not. and so i mean as we look at it, i think the big difference for us is that we're looking at last year, things were expensive, too. right?

fundamentals were good gdp growth was close to 30%. now we have a market where things are still good but not as great as they were last year >> that's important to understand the context for these record highs and the previous highs very different context >> last year, remember we were benefitting from tax reform. of course earnings were up really strong. i pulled some numbers the other day, 81% of the tech names in the s&p 500 beat in the second quarter of 2018 on revenue not even betting from tax reform the fund mamentals are still go. but not quite as good as last year >> when we wake up to headlines of global bond yields are as low as they are, is there any value left in your space

well, there is, you have to remember, too, the bond market is supposed to be the balance. the quality we need because global growth has pushed bond market performance to extremely strong numbers >> if i could give you an anecdote on that rick was on halftime report yesterday. he said in europe maybe to some extent here, people buy bonds for the upside and equities for carry. there could p some truth to that look at developed marks outside of the u.s 20% of debt is now yielding. that leaves the u.s. market and the u.s. corporate credit market like some of these markets are some of the only places you can get yields again a scarcity of other avenues out there.

that's what's going gone there is a search here if you look for at long-term treasuries, those are returned well over 10% year to date which is really striking >> ladies, thank you >> coming up, hurricanndred rs companies are coming out against tariffs against chip up nt, aex business leader in favor of them. she'll make her case next on "power lunch." xfinity mobile is a wireless network

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welcome back the vice president president making statements on china it comes as major u.s. companies include uing apple are filing. but our next guest supports those. joining us now is kim glass. who recentlied bf the u.s. trad representatives. welcome and we're glad to have you here we'd love to know why you think these tariffs would be good for a for business >> we think that we strongly support president trump using the mechanism to address intellect yul property abuses that have so impacteded our industry and many other industries we're asking the u.s. trade representatives office and this administration to move forward in putting tariffs on finished

products come out of china right now, 93% of our imports into the united states from this particular sector are coming in on end products and these products are not any retaliatory from this administration in your industry, we're talking about yard and fabrics, which seem like poster children of outsource industries some place where they go to super low costs, the technologies follow. the importers benefit from those cheaper materials. how much of yarn and tech tile industry is left in this country? we have a very vibrant industry. in fact, we are the sec largest textile exporter in the world. our industry has invested our $20 billion in new plants and technology so we are a vibrant industry and all we're asking

for is to level the playing field with china we support free and fair trade where are most end users located? i'm wobder federal government the people who buy the yarns and fab ribs and use them, if they're located in china and in that part of the world so therefore it makes more sense for that part of the spry chain to exist there we export all over the world, but our primary destination is our western hem streer trade partners 70% go to mexico and central america and some trade preference partners. so we believe by putting tariffs on chinese end products that are using violating our international trade measures, that we can bring nor sourcing back to our western hemisphere and provide opportunities for our u.s. man fufacturing base to

dwroe. >> is the pap would be born by the manturers and not the industry if there were the tariffs placeded on these companies that produce the finisheded goods so you get the best of both worlds because you're trying to drive that part of the supply chain back here to the western hemisphere and where you don't have to pay the price. in the wempb hemisphere, we have free trade agreements and we have certain rules the chinese have long distorted trade measures from their subsidy, intellectual property theft and what we're asking for the administration to do is to apply tariffs to the products that are most hurting our industry we're ready to compete with any country in the world and any industry in the world. with respect to this sector, but we need to take advantage of the opportunity. how many jobs? >> nearly 600,000.

>> thanks for joining us kim glass joining us from the national counsel sill of textile organizations. >> shares of fedex down more than 40% in the past year. can the company deliver next week and a wild week for oil continuing utop day 10%. how high could it go if tensions continue to escalate -driverless cars... -all ground personnel... ...or trips to mars. $4.95. delivery drones or the latest phones. $4.95. no matter what you trade, at fidelity it's just $4.95 per online u.s. equity trade. no matter what you trade, at fidelity feel that? that's the beat of global markets, the rhythm of the world. but to us, it's the pace of tomorrow. with ingenuity, technologies, and markets expertise we create the possible. and when you do that, you don't chase the pace of tomorrow.

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welcome back to "power lunch. i'm mike san tolly stocks at record but transports are still stuck in neutral fedex, the biggest loser down more than 30% from its recent highs ahead of the earnings report next week. jb hunt, american airlines and avis sharp off their 52 week highs. your trading nation team today, so craig, fedex obviously global economic proxy trade r war, potential victim and obviously the stock has had a rough road of it. do you think it's taken enough pain by now or not >> i think it has. i look at fedex as bottom

fishing candidate in the fek cal world. as i look at the stock, has pulled back about 44% off of the highs you can see it in january of 2018 and looks like you're forming a double bottom in here. got really good support. i'd be a buyer of this stock here and i think a lot of the bad news is baked into these shares >> steve, what are the big questions, what to make of the laggered behavior of the transports do you think it's time for a rotation into that type of area and how do you see the tupts at the moment >> we think it make sense. we know the business sector has been weak. we see that in the freight volumes. the overhang from trade and uncertainty around that. sentiment. but ultimately, and the fed talked about ha in their press conference this week so we think when they do eventually cut for those reasons, it's going to help have a reacceleration in the economy. it's going to benefit all

cyclicals, transports in particular only thing for us the is we prefer ups over fedex. little bitter yields, i think the whole group can improve here zpl all right. yeah if the fed play book pli apply, that should be a beneficiary craig and steve, thank you very much for more, head to our website or follow us on twitter kelly, back to you >> thanks. ahead on "power lunch," gasoline prices surge iing after a mass v explosion at one of the biggest refineries are prices at the pub headed higher we'll find out plus, the soaring cost of drug prices and health care the ceo of mt. sinai and sldilem for young workers paying off debt and saving for the future how a company has come up with a real solution that works stay with us this is my headquarters.

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here's the krbz news update. a judge orderinging on a decision on charges against jessee smollett who was accused of lying to the police by claiming he was the victim of a racist and home foeb eck attack. . >> by 7-2 the supreme court says prosecuto prosecutors, the decision could affect thousands of pr prosecutions the u.s. soccer federation and the u.s. women's soccer team have tentatively agreed to pursue mediation for their pay

dispute after the world cup e s ends it could resolve issues deed in the player's lawsuit over pay discrimination and a year's long lawsuit u between the two sides. it's been tested at one drive through in chicago and it is part of the company's plans to speed up service when ordering you're up to date. that's the news update this hour back to you. >> thanks. appreciate it. still talking about voice activated deep fryers. >> think fries what does it do? >> i don't know. >> between tensions with iran and a big refinery fire in philadelphia, a lot is happen ng the energy markets today dominic chu is at the cnbc commodity desk

the fire happened around 4:00 a.m. this morning. a miracle there were only five minor injuries that have been reported so far. this past hour, we received a statement from philly mayor saying he's aware of the concerns of residents around the refinery and that he and refinery and city officials will be working to improve the energy and safety response process that happened today markets of course being affected by that explosion as you pointed out particularly in gasoline futures where benchmark prices tied closer to northeast markets saw a search up by about 4% or so right now we should point out from a macro level that u.s. based benchmark prices are up 10% already given heightened tensions between u.s. and iran as well as those factors in the u.s. dollar, which is rather, melissa, commodity prices, back to you. >> thank you for more on the impact of raup and the refinery fire, let's bring in kyle cooper director of research at iaf advisers kyle, great to have you with us.

let's first deal with this philadelphia refinery fire a lot of people are hitting the roads. vacation week next week. july 4th is the week after are we going see that translate into a spike in gas prices or is this going to be short lived >> this is a big impact, but the refinery system is probably in a better position to handle a disruption of this sort than they have been in year's past. >> in terms of iran and the impact on the oil market, if you u add up yesterday, it's about a five plus percent response trik of the drone over the iran yawn air space and so i'm wondering how you interpret this move oil and how you see that sort of indicating what people think b about what's going to happen in

this region? >> due to the recent iranian sanctions sanctions, production is down from about 3.8 million barrels last year to 2.3 this year so further disruption from iran wouldn't fall off that much more than it has. saudi arabia, uae, kuwait, russia and obviously with the u.s. production increasing, the world is once again better equipped to handle a disruption than it has been in years past that doesn't remove the fear that things could get really bad. >> if they did somehow block the straig strait of hormuz, we read 20% of world's global supply come frs the middle east. could that have an impact or do you think we have the work arounds in place so that the

impact would be minimize snd. >> i think the impact would be much less than in years past also while heightening the potential. i think that if things really got bad, the us navy would start to run escorts for tankers going in and out with throw result on a price fight, sure. but i'm not one that thinks that physical oil will be at a shortage across the world. >> sounds like you would say this 10% move on the week. >> to a certain extent you have to separate price reaction from what's going to happen clearly, there's a huge fear that's very real could the prices spike another 5, 10% i think we see 60, 0u7 bucks, but i don't think there would be a true physical disruption because keep main mind that inventories are at a high level. let's separate the price reaction from the physical

reaction, what's truly going to happen to people at the pumps. i don't think there's going to be a physical shortage at the pumps, but prices might be much higher >> thank you kyle cooper. >> thank you have a great day >> to the bond market now where rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. rick >> hi, boy, you've been really painting the picture, an accurate picture of treasuries there's a lot of demand, but it's machine been much stronger. especially since the fed meeting and the long maturities. the announcement was wednesday let's look at a ten-year it's recouped everything if you look at the curve down six on the week bonds are ten-year now up two on the day and 30 year are up four on the day, almost unchanged op the week let's look at tens minus dramat tells us that the two year hasn't recuperate d from the pressures on the fed being put on for the marketplace easy in

if future. finally, the dollar and index. the chart starts around march 11th melissa lee, back to you >> have a great weekend. coming up, the head of a major hospital with his prescription to lower drug prices plus, one of the biggest mall operators in the world on how they are staying relevant to the age of amazon and in a tight labor market, companies have to get creative what one company is doing to help their employees all that coming up on "power lunch. through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from using feedback to innovate... to introducing products faster... to managing website inventory... and network bandwidth. giving you a nice big edge over your competition.

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♪ get your usaa auto insurance quote today. employer medical costs are are set to increase in 2020. rising drug prices fuelling declining costs as issue remains on the agenda in washington and ubs out with a new note this week saying they expect a drug reform package will come this summer ceo of the mt. sinai health system joining us from the health festival for "power lunch" exclusive. thank you so much for joining s

us i want to talk about drug prices, wu you say there's a much bigger issue that's at the root of the problem. so much attention is focuseded on the price of the drugs themselves, but you say that really there's something below that at the the core that could really help solve a myriad of problems that is more spending on social programs making the environment in which people live a lot healthier. >> that's true health care costs are driven by much more than your episode in the hospital or episode in the emergency room or visit to the physician they're driven before that by social factors that really affect your health for instance, imagine if you live in an apartment complex where the filter's op the hvac system haven't been change nd a decade and you have respiratory issues yoir going to be coming to the emergency room more frequently with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. imagine if you have type two diabetes and you can't afford foods that are high in sugar and

fructose, you're going to be winding up with downstream problems wifrom that high hemoglobinen aic all the problems a consequence of not controlling your glucose the ability to be transported to go to a doctor, to find time in your schedule to be able to leave your employment. all these factors determine health care factors. we in this country don't really spend enough time dealing with those social konz frenss that really affect health care outcomes >> that's a much bigger picture u. a more surgical approach to this you say there are ways that perhaps the u.s. government could help i don't want to say help drug maker, but help subsidize the costs for american consumers of those products. that would be to use trade talks as a mess. how would that happen? >> think about this.

we talk about unfairness in trade and we marvel at the fact that u.s. drug toss are 2 to 6 times higher the answer is obvious why it happens. in all the other parts of the world, the government is the only payer and they set the price in the united states, we have a free market, but what i don't understand is why in trade talks don't we make this a prominent issue. why won't we say you guys can't allow the u.s. consumer to be subsidizing all the rnd costs. you have to pay your fair share. weapon to swe want to see you ad 20%. obviously if this happens, we need the drug manufacturers to all agree they're not going raise u.s. prices, they're going to come down in proportion to what they could get to the rest of the world but i think this should be a leading discussion in trade talks about how the u.s. is

unfairly penalized here for the cost of drugs around the world >> we listen to a number of other measures you proposed would help with drug pricing including speaking of the generic process which really happened to some extent under scott got looeb and some changes to patent law. but i wanted to get your take on where you think the solution would be there's so much talk amongst the candidates now about how they would approach this issue. is it going to be a government solution or is it going to come from the private sector from people who think out of the box like you know amazon, jpmorgan and berkshire hathaway way for instance >> i think one of the real drivers is our inability to have a patent process patent law, this really deals with innovation. we have to recognize the vast majority of drugs that are branded are me too compounds

patent law encourage duplication not innovation we have to ask why do we allow that to happen how come we don't really allow truly breakthrough compounds to have a preference over compounds that are really no small difference from other drugs in the same category. let me tell you con quenss of that one of the things we can do about it we taub about medicare should negotiate drug prices. obviously that's catastrophic for the pharmaceutical industry and they lose their ability they would say to invest into research but what if the medicare said we're not negotiating drug prices, but we're not going to put that drug on our form lair because it's no better than drugs that we already have and many of those drugs are generic. example is antidepress sants ants just one example until the approval of ketamine,

there has been no new action of them in nearly 50 years, but yet there's new drug after new drug that gets patent protection and gets a high price on the market. why does patent law allow this to happen? i can explain if we have more time, but we really need to get the congress to start to focus on, why do we get innovation instead of duplication >> great examples. we appreciate the conversation thanks for joining us. >> thank you >> now in the kournt job environment, companies need workers and workers need help with their student loans we'll have a look at one creative way that a company is giving everyone what they need next on "power lunch."

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compane reinventin the mall. they are adding offices, option is this enough to attract the this i a cfo of the company an great to have you with us on set. you me thaud live that you liv airpor the journal said duty-free >> that's correct and that's why we are in airports it's very interesting to see the overla and accommodation of also in airports they help them cover a broader >> let's talk about the garden

going to add residences. people will be living at the mall ifuture >> the mall will be part of a office hotels, restaurants basica the mall is a it's a place where people go to that needs to be reinvented experi they have a new time square. all of the social media, we are that's what the mall is supposed also a place to hang out and >> there are complexes lik across the country and i wonder retail residential how does that work out for you >> we have six malls where we it works out very, very well

that's the combination and the it's a symbiotic relationshi >> how stack is it retail and office or >> retail is the most lucrative. the rest is incremental and helps, but as we think about it it's a way to capitalize on the on >> does an apple store want to one of these complexes and do comple retail your bread and butter >> that's right. the combination of what the

we have 1.2 billion people >> is there is more foot traffic versus mall? >> yes there is >> what's driving foot traffic is it still the apple store. it was tesla and washy parker store. >> we see it's interesting 44% are opening stores in malls they go there and pay very well. they are differentiated and they don't open stores everywhere they see the visitors. that's where the people are. these native brands go >> i wonder, we talked a lot

would say things are fine or do you see weakness? >> there is weakness you ca see that exporting >> yeah. thanks very much apprec it. >> for watching "power >> closing bell starts right >> welcome to the closing bell i'm morgan brennan for sarah eisen. the s& pull off another watchi closely and that's we tell you about that >> good afternoon to you 59 minutes of trade and the and the week we will start with what is energy leading