i don't think we will fully turn to earnings, but we have to do that preannouncement we used to talk about preannouncement season and the bye-back blackout period and we're kind of there. >> strong week for equities. dollar softer on the week, down at 96.2. we're out of time. thanks for joining us today. great to have you with us. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. ♪ "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time square i'm melissa leer tonight it is a golder rally the commodities surging above 1400 for first time in six years, but could it be a warning sign for stocks? plus, big banks passing the stress test with flying colors moments ago. first we start off with a record breaking week for wall street. the s&p 500 serving two all-time highs this week, stocks closing out third weeks of gains with the s&p 500 on track for the best first half of the year

since 1997, up 18% check out some of the biggest winners. netflix up a whopping it%. boeing, up 7%. oracle up 5% exxon up 4%. with stocks at record highs and the s&p 500 surging 2% this week, guy adami, would you trade or fade this market? >> trade it or fade it! top of the show on friday. i got to be consistent, mel, and i will say fade it it has clearly been wrong now for weeks if not longer, but i will say fade it as we go into the next week, g20 i think will be a nonevent, which is negative. fedex earnings next week i think will be negative, which is market negative. the fact that the vix is at these levels rallied today, 15 or so has been a level where the market has sis torically sold off from over the last year or so all of those things equal on top of which the run has been magnificent, too much too fast, i say trade it into next week. >> you are trading it? >> i would trade it. i can't think of a scenario that you would fade this rally. >> really?

no scenario? not one single scenario? >> what if something happens at the g20, don't you think it is a risk >> i don't know. the fed is still there waiting in the wings with three cuts keep going i like this game. >> okay. >> so let's say inflation increases, let's say the fed can't be there anymore and there's no trade deal. >> inflation increases >> yes, because of tariffs because of tariffs. >> there is zero chance inflation increases. everyone -- >> zero chance zero chance that inflation increases. >> the fed can't find it powell can't find it powell is looking for it. >> why are they back stopped then if they can't increase inflation there's no reason for anybody to invest why would you be bullish >> because he is going to continue cutting rates until he finds a -- >> oh, just like japan did. >> -- inflation. >> and then their stocks went down. >> you have been negative on the s&p, i have been positive -- >> for a week. >> i'm not making it manno y manno. the more he is the back stop, the more the market rallies, off

722, up to new levels now, going high. >> i was surprised that the market rallied off of powell i thought it was mostly priced in that is definitely something that i got wrong my biggest concern is we have priced in again a lot of stop. i don't think anything happens at the g20, so i'm a fader of this market. >> so i'm going to go down the fairway with steve as the woods on the side and b.k. is the pond over here. by the way, it doesn't imply either are wrong i'm saying they're on different sides. >> the pond? >> does it mean you are trading or fading? >> oh, sorry i'm going to trade it. i'm going to trade it, so i'm obviously closer to the woods than the pond. but my deal is i don't think you can be, you know, wildly anything at this point other than needing the fed to have basically done more than they could have two days ago. you need a sideways action in terms of the trade dynamic, and you need the equity market to essentially be trading as a function of an inverse of the bond market. so 197 is the low yesterday. you had bonds actually trade

higher the good news for the market -- so my slightly bullish call here again, structurally cautious, tactically optimistic in the short run. look at the dollar it is down half a percent today and solidly below 200 a day for the first time in the year it finally gave up the ghost over the last couple of days, but decidedly today. that's a very bullish dynamic for risk assets whether it be commodities, cyclicals or ee emerging markets. >> not that i play trade it or fade it -- >> sounds like she wants to. >> -- but it sounds like it could be a treacherous time for stocks some people might say fedex is ideo sin crating, not necessarily a bellwether for the economy. >> that's fair. >> but there are plenty of other earnings coming down the pike afterwards. >> i mentioned -- >> what happens at second quarter? they give the outlook for the

next what happens if they say it is fine. >> of course not. >> if you get the free pass, why wouldn't you take it. >> guy was talking about fedex we have heard from them two garters they were running into headwinds. i think they were having execution issues, there was tightness and bottle necks they have talked about some of the costs on shipping. look, fedex is well in the price as far as i'm concerned. fedex is at kind of a trough valuation. fedex is trading like we have a recession. it is trading at 197 on the ten year means you're going to recession, not steve's, hey, there's no inflation, and that's why rates went lower. >> i mentioned fedex in the context earnings are coming up and that's what the markets should be focused on and i think they will be disappointing, which is why i started the show saying fade it. >> nice way to sort of put the bow on it. >> squaring the softball. >> we're going to individual names now in the game. we mentioned netflix, up 9% on the week grasso, are you trading or fading it? >> i still would be trading this one.

it is up 37% year-to-date. i don't think it is a zero sum gain i don't think it is either netflix or disney. i think it is netflix first, then it is disney, and they're going to make it tougher for anyone else to enter the streaming war, that streaming arena. but i still think you trade this, especially if the market continues to go higher, which i do believe is so. >> i'm going to take a page from tim's book and use this tactical, strategical thing. >> the pond? >> yeah, the pond and different things i would fade it here, only because it is up 9%. i actually think netflix does quite well to steve's point, i don't think it is a zero sum game. i think netflix is one of the subscriptions you cancel last, but it has been trading in a nice range take a little off the table and let them prove it to you. >> although i'm bearish as i mentioned on fade it on the overall market, i agree with steven and brian kelly you trade it i think it is a push towards the may high of -- what is it? i think last year 420 or thereabouts. i think we do that into their july earnings release, melissa. >> boeing up 7%.

tim, trade it or fade it >> i think you trade this one. we had good news in terms of new orders out of the uk, et cetera, et cetera. this is a company that to me, first of all, i think it is cyclical minus and i think it is industrial plus. what i mean by that is, yes, you could say it is the ultimate stock that could fall victim to slower economic growth around the world. this has been a story that's really been all about boeing itself we're not removing the headline risk we're not removing the tragedies that happened, but this is a company that in terms of execution in all other parts of their game is extraordinary. this was an important week it was important technically, for their core business. i don't think based upon the order cycle and the demand for only one of two global players that do what they do it is a stock that should fall victim to the trade war in the short run. >> it is a fade it for me. 379 is the 100-day moving average, so i would think if you want to trade it you have to wait until it busts through that resistance level right now it is a no touch fade it. >> that fade it graphic is so

jarring. >> it really is. >> it is very loud. >> it gets the point though. >> what would you say? >> disturbing. >> you know, at the risk of having another jarring sound, i will fade this one as well i think in the longer run boeing does all right, but we had a tremendous run here on the way up and so, you know, again, the pool and the pond thing, put this one in the pond. >> sparkle near all time highs up after earnings. guy. >> it is interesting i am going to get jarred on this one and say fade it. >> i actually looked -- >> better when you brace yourself. >> you looked scared. >> do i look scared? you should be with oracle because, you know, the stock did not trade all that well post earnings you know, things that make you go hmm remember that song, bk >> i do. >> i think it was p. diddy. >> or was it sean collins? >> it wasn't p. diddy. >> why would i know? >> exactly. >> but this made me go -- >> emc music factory. >> cc music factory.

>> earnings were good. i thought given valuation it should have traded higher and it didn't today that concerns me so i say fade it, without the jar. >> so i am tired of that noise and therefore i'm going to trade this one i trade it for the following reason we actually got out of the numbers. basically their core annuity stream is growing at 15% in terms of the software subscription i realize it is an environment where we don't care about valuation, but relative to peer group i do i think relative value is important at a time where you may look at the growth andsoft force sector and say i would rather own oracle. >> i would trade this one as well i think it is playing catch-up here with s.a.p. and they're both outperforming salesforce. as tim said, salesforce is up 12%, 13% year-to-date. so i think oracle makes up ground with s.a.p. even though they're not exactly comps. >> last but not least, exxonmobil, b.k. >> here comes the jar. i'm going to fade this one i'm still playing oil this is a

bear market rally. we had a bit of a lift from geopolitical tension i don't think there's a reason for either side in the conflict in the middle east to go to anything further there's a chance we have like a tactical miscalculation, but for me you fade the exxonmobil because i think this goes lower. >> you liked this one yesterday. you mentioned it yesterday. >> i can't believe you. >> i listen to you on occasion. >> you make it seem she can't remember day over day facts. >> she tunes me out. >> i block him out. >> it is like the old vhs and you don't mess with those guys. >> what are you talking about, vhs. >> on the tv when we were kids. >> trade it! >> i said last night -- what >> please, exxonmobil. >> last night for the first time in at least a year and a half exxonmobil stopped making lower lows and lower highs valuation is compelling. i think oil actually goes higher on a benign market, i think this stock trades back up to 83 i say trade it, melissa. time for our chart of the day. stocks were not the only thing

rallying this week gold on a tear up 4% this week and now up nearly 10% in the past month to 1400, highest level since 2013 is this move a warning sign though for stocks, tim >> historically gold has been a safety mechanism it is difficult to argue something with zero yield should be anything but a place to run when you are worried about storing value. gold has bucked up against 1,350. our friend carter who continues to find spots to make daring calls, i think we are opposite each other three weeks ago we were at the 1350 level, he said buy gold, i said sell it because i want to sell it every other time for the last five years. guess what we had a massive break through gold outperformed silver if you look at the ratio, because people do relative to risk/reward moments, which actually you see them rise together, we're through ten-year levels which tells you there's a participate of the market rally that has many people very, very concerned and gold is bought for that sort of reason. >> the folks i talked to buying

gold -- and i liked gold i did try to sell some last week just to take profit, but people are concerned about their trading a tariff, a trade war for a currency war what you want is apolitical currency gold is one of them. you are seeing bitcoin go higher i would say if you are looking at purely gold as the warning sign, two periods of time to look at it from september to december, gold in 2018 outperformed significantly. on the bigger picture, the last time gold had a secular run against the s&p 500, that started in 2000. >> all right grasso >> i would say there's two things that happened this month in gold. you had paul tutor jones on june 12th say that it is his best investment for the next 12 to 24 months stock has jumped from there. this week obviously the fed, if you charted from the day the fed came out and you look at the dollar over gold, it is obvious what happened there. so gold still is probably a good investment. >> you're going to come in one day, melissa -- i'm telling you now, save this tape. >> i am?

>> they call it a sound on tape. i'm telling you, you're going to walk in -- thank you gold will be up $100 and everybody will say we're going to play fade it or trade it and most will tell you fade it i'm telling you, mel, don't fade it, trade it again because it is going to happen the next day gold is setting up for one of the moves that happens every 15, 20 years we are in the eye of the storm quickly, quickly. >> yes. >> steve said the fed can't find inflation, they haven't looked at au. >> interesting coming up, the banks passing the stress test with flying colors we will tell you what it means for the stocks, plus transports in trouble the group stuck in correction territory while the rest of the market rallies and fedex is on deck for earnings neck week. sinking after the consumer group sounded the alarm on some of the ingredients in its meatless burgers. we're live from times square in new york city. more "fast money" after this [leaf blower]

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continue lending during that period fed vice-chairman randall quarles saying in a statement, the nation's largest banks are significantly stronger than before the crisis and would be well-positioned to support the economy even after a severe shock, an indicator of bank's financial strength or their common equity tier one capital ratio declined to a minimum level of 9.2% in the stress scenario among the big six, bank of america was the most capitalized during the test with common equity tier one capital ratio of 9.7% while goldman came in toward the low end at 7.6% but all banks handily surpassed the minimum of 4.5%. a change in the banking law meant only 18 firms were tested, almost half as many as last year comparing the same firms to show how they did last year, the fed says losses in the stress scenario would be about $410 billion compared with

$464 billion last year the fed tested a 10% unemployment rate, a decline in the u.s. yield curve and appreciation in the u.s. dollar. now, next thursday we will see part two of this test where the fed will provide more details about its quantitative results as well as qualitative relates mel. >> leslie, thank you leslie picker at headquarters. as leslie mentioned, it is the next round that's more consequential. >> the banks are well capitalized as they've ever been, that's not the problem in my opinion the problem is how they make money going forward. the margins continue to contract and bank is a utility. i'm not saying you go out and blindly short these things, but i don't think they're going to race to the upside as well tangible book value in my world is where these banks are trade. >> i think the best days for the banks are behind them. if i look at it, i look at it -- i bring it back from the 50,000 up level the excel left from june of '07

topped out at 3097 the excel left in march of 2018, 3032 so that to me is a striking double tap on a chart, and then you have the inverse yield curve. the rates are going no place the banks are going no place the reason why they spiked up to the highs were deregulation and tax cuts those things are behind them, so i don't think the banks have anything to really look forward to other than what guy said, they're utilities. maybe safety. >> what's to the pond? >> all i'll say is, so, i'm -- it is hard for me to get up here on a box -- >> soap box? >> soap box, and tell you that you should be buying them just for the balance sheet. i will tell you for all of the bad news banks had to digest in the past 12 months, they underperformed the s&p by 500 basis points but guess what, the yield curve went almost negative banks had a series of headlines in terms of the core business models being attacked. guess what

if you look at the ipo a's capital market business, you will see an upside because of the volatility and the deal flow coming through wall street is as good as it has been in many years. don't discount that in earning season. >> i'm a seller of banks my friends are telling me it is a dead business so get out of the banks. >> there's one stock that mike khouw says the going up. fake meat, beyond meat sinking after the consumer group is sounding the alarm on the ingredients in the products. did this hot ipo get overheated. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" much more right after this woman: my reputation was trashed online.

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yeah >> yeah. >> welcome back to "fast money". shares of beyond meat down 7% after the center for consumer freedom sounded the alarm on harmful things last night on the show. >> it is not just peas ground into the product they go through a very heavy manufacturing process. there are other companies, usually ones that use soybeans, that through this process -- it is called extrusion -- in order to separate the protein from the fat. they will run it through a solvent called hexene. hexene is recognized by the federal government as an neuro toxin. it is thought to have impacts on reproductive health. >> that was breanne kinkaid, the center research director, arguing that products that claim to be plant-based can ms. lead consumers. we should know that the group does not disclose who its donors

are but has been known to be supported by restaurants and food company shake shack has no intention of adding beyond meat burgers to the menu right now is the stock turning into dead meat >> oh, snap. >> that was overdone. >> yes, but, see, it is somewhat disingenius for me to say it because at $100 i was telling people to get out at half their position if they were fortunate enough to buy it around the ipo. it raced up to 200 i think it is ridiculous the stock is here, there should be significant down side. you get a couple of upgrades next week and you see how volatile it is. >> reproductive health, guys. >> extrusion and hexene. >> it doesn't sound good at all. i think you have a dynamic where people don't need to rush into the brand. every major food company -- >> like tyson said it would be in there. >> like question like tyson, heinz craft, people making hot

dogs and hamburgers for a living should be making them and taking notes of the side effects there. it doesn't make any sense. >> i know when somebody comes out and says this product is really, really bad and maybe they've been supported in the past that do meat, seems they might be scared what is going on here i continue to say every time you go to a restaurant and try to order these things, they're out of stock the demand for this stuff is out of the world even if tyson is going to make it, it is still on demand. >> when you say it is healthy for you, everyone says it is not about health, it is about cow. >> the carbon footprint. >> they just are. >> it says more preservatives, more salt. the whole thing is unhealthy for you, but it doesn't matter if i had to pick my poison, would you rather tyson, up 48% they're going to come out with their own, which they already are. >> yes. >> they sold their piece of beyond, and now you're going to see them sort of be more a trusted brand. they're more of a brand that restaurants i think that would trust more than a beyond.

>> they have more muscle in the supermarket in terms of where to put products. >> i was thinking about a nice trade as sort of a hedge based on what tim said and we heard in the slot. >> is it going to be something pfizer with beyond meat. >> yes, pfizer/beyond meat pairing makes sense. >> sfwresing time nor the final trade tim. >> i actually think fedex is a story you can buy going into earnings based upon very much have we seen updates in news flow fedex is safe at these levels. >> brian kelly. >> a weird one comstock resources crk, a way to play natural gas. >> steve grasso. >> olin, it is a name i have been in for quite sometime it is around the same level as where i bought it. i'm looking for a double on there. i think you should be there as well oln is the symbol. >> guy. >> a special surprise. >> so huge. >> soviet. >> the cutest surprise you could imagine. >> her son is here, 8 months old. >> he is coming but you won't

have enough time. >> i won't have enough time now. >> nobody in the buster. >> in the buster. >> please. >> you have a great trip. >> thank you. >> we will miss you have yoxonmobil, i don't care what anne says. >> that does it for us we'll see you back here after this break

♪ i give you all a boy could give you ♪ ♪ take my sears ♪ ♪ tainted love ♪ oh, oh ♪ tainted love the race to zero is over

you hear me? >> hey there live from the nasdaq market side on this expiration friday. the guys are getting ready behind me. in the meantime, here is what is coming up on the show. >> special delivery. >> hey >> fedex is getting ready to deliver earnings next week, but the chart master says there's trouble lurking in the transports he will tell us why he's pressing sell. plus -- >> we have a lift-off. >> yeah, that's what stocks did this week. if you think the record rally is going to rage on, dan nathan will tell you how you can profit from the party and later --