♪ good morning it is 5:00 a.m. here in philadelphia and we are just outside the refinery that exploded and burned here on friday. one which shook houses and tearfied a city. a mixture of propane and butane ignited setting off an explosion so big that it could be seen from space and felt for miles. the blast has closed part of the refinery, which is the largest on the east coast and many questions remain it is monday, june 24th and a big morning ahead as "worldwide exchange" begins right now.

♪ well, good morning, govern or good evening and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching i'm brian sullivan here in philadelphia where the sun just about ready to rise and we are just outside of this philadelphia energy solutions refinery, which set off a massive explosion on friday and a fire that burned for more than 24 hours there were five minor injuries but the situation certainly could have been much, much worse and that is why we are here today. there are a number of reasons and explanations we need to dig into around this refinery and you see the explosion there and a lot of questions which still remain, exactly why did that explosion and fire happen. investigators will be pouring in today. they were here over the weekend, at least three major federal agencies are indeed involved as well as the city of philadelphia what happens now the refinery they're not giving us a lot of updates on exactly what the output currently is this is the 10th biggest refinery in the united states. it is the largest on the east coast. it produces about 330,000

barrels per day, which is more than 150 million gallons per month of refined gasoline jet fuel and other products. despite repeated requests, the refinery to give us update on exactly the status and current output, we have not gotten that. at its full capacity, the refinery, which by the way is actually two large refineries sort of connected in one, is a 27% of the mid-atlantic's gasoline output. we don't exactly know how much refinery -- the refinery is still operating but just how much we do not know. each refinery is about 13.5%, 27% of the region's gasoline output in total. obviously we'll be trying to figure out the real impact not only on the price of gasoline but on all the impact of the infrastructure here on the east coast. the other angle here, guys, is also what happens with the ownership structure. this is a refinery that is owned unlike any other in the united states it is not owned by an oil and

gas company. it is owned by four different companies, three of whom are financial companies. these refineries went bankrupt in 2018. they came out of bankruptcy earlier this year and as such became owned and controlled by credit swiss asset management as well as halcyon capital management, carlisle group as well as the energy transfer partners so, there's a lot of questions that remain. we'll be here all day to try to get answers on what could have been a far worse scenario. but of course it is "worldwide exchange." we have got a lot more to do with the markets and your money and a stock market that is at or near record highs depending on which of the indexes that you are looking at the dow 0.86% away from hitting a new all-time high. the s&p 500 is currently at an all-time high.

the major averages, by the way, are on pace for their best june in more than 30 years. so this is a market which despite trade tensions, despite all the things that we talk about everyday, continues to be at or near record highs. the european markets are up. the asian markets that pretty well over night. you want to watch bitcoin. i know we don't talk about bitcoin a lot but we have to because bitcoin has been on a tear, perhaps the single best performing asset class this year and, in fact, briefly overnight bitcoin broke above 11,000 it was a couple weeks ago. we were thousands of points less on bitcoin we're up half a percent to 10,883 so equities are up bond yields remain low bitcoin has been soaring joining us is erin gibs portfolio manager at s&p global market intelligence. erin, good to see you here wish i was on set with you

here is the question i got for you which is as this market has come up, valuations have come up as well. is this a stock market which has gotten ahead of itself and is now overvalued >> it's certainly getting there. so, one of the things that we look at is where the leadership is coming. what's pushing the markets higher and one of the things we have noticed is that the valuations and what's really pushing the markets in the recent month has been coming from gross stocks. and when you look at the premium that you're paying for a growth earning versus dollar from a value stock, there's a premium of about 60%, which is an all-time high. you really see investors not only putting money into equities but they're putting them into the riskier assets like growth and look, when yields are this low, it's totally normal we're used to this valuations start running up because what are you going to do when yields are below 2%

it's not just a full across the board full breath. we're really seeing them go into some of the riskier assets even within the equity class. and that's what's concerning is that investors have really shunned all the value stocks. >> you know, i wonder, erin, is there any way to sort of discern whether or not that money going into the riskier stocks is that a short-term bet on technology doing well, which is waiting to get out? or are these true longer-term investments that are being made? >> you know, right now it's not just about technology. there's a lot in communication services and consumer discretionary. but certainly, yeah, we're concerned about whether this money is going to come out, but this has been a trend that we have been seeing over the past three months and a bigger concern is that even as stock markets are rising and investors are paying more and more for these growth stocks, we're seeing earning

execations really come down and it's not just earnings are coming down for q2 because we're adjusting for q2 as we head into the second quarter, earnings expectations are coming down for the next four quarters across the board. so, we're really seeing a lowered outlook when it comes to profits binvestors are still piling into these stocks that's definitely a concern. >> that is the biggest and most sort of vexing aspect of this is that as concern about growth is elevated, as expectations of growth have come down, the money continues to pour in what is the risk that, quote, the market, meaning stocks not bonds, is going to be massively wrong here >> we're certainly getting to more extreme values. we have never seen a premium of a growth value anywhere near this level the five-year average there's normally a 30% premium we're at 60% okay so double the premium.

so and so what this really says is this isn't about fundamentals this isn't because growth stocks are earning so much more money this is all about confidence it won't take much for that confidence to erode in order for those stocks to come back down to more reasonable valuations because we just don't see it on the fundamental side and also obviously a bond yields increase, equities become less attractive but it's definitely on shakier standing and wouldn't take much for this kind of rockiness to erode. >> erin gibbs, we'll leave it there. there's your headline, never been a bigger premium between growth and value quite the headline thank you very much. we'll see you soon. all right. there's a lot more going on on this monday morning as well. let's get you up to speed on some of the top headlines. frank holland has more frank? >> good morning, brian we begin with president trump taking aim at fed chair jay pow nel an interview with nbc's meet

the press. he never threatened to demote powell but says he has the power to do so if he wanted. >> what he's done is 50 billion a month in quantitative tightening that's ridiculous. what he's done is he raised interest rates too fast. >> you worry he's going to hurt your re-election >> i think the economy is so strong we're going to bull through it, but i'm not happy with his actions, no i don't think he's done a good job. i think this, if he didn't raise rates, obama had very low rates so obama was playing with funny money. i wasn't i'm playing with the right stuff. >> el dorado resorts agreed to merge with ceaser's a cash and stock deal valued at $13 per share, roughly $18 billion including debt expected to be announced later today. daimler cutting its profit forecast for the third time this a year new ownership blaming allegations of emissions tampering. daimler shares falling more than 3% in the early trade. they're down more than 17% in

the last year. and bitcoin surging above the 11,000 mark early this morning. that's its highest level in more than 15 months bitcoin is now up 75% in the last year. brian, back over to you. >> frank, we'll see you in just a bit. thank you very much. when we come back, we have a lot more to do, much more from philadelphia as we continue to track the fallout following that massive blast at the largest oil and gas refinery on the east coast. but first, exclusive comments from the u.s. envoy to iran as president trump threatens billions of dollars and more tariffs on the republic. top adviser to president xi jinping on the best and worst case scenarios for the big trump/xi face-to-face at the g20 later on this week "worldwide exchange" back on a monday right after this. rts. excuse me, where is gate 87? you should be mad at non-seasoned travelers. and they took my toothpaste away. and you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks.

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♪ welcome back and good morning. it's 5:12 here on the east coast. will today be the day that we see new record highs on the dow jones industrial average you're just 0.86% away futures they are higher. not to that level. up only about 18 points. so very tiny percent, but we're still in the green the s&p 500 already at a record. so any new gains there will just add to that. could be a dramatic day in the stock market and markets running up despite increased tensions with iran we had the twin tanker attacks

two weeks ago. the downing of a u.s. drone last week as well as new threats of sanctions on iran from president trump. all of this happening as secretary of state michael pompeo arrives in saudi arabia today. hadley gamble live from our awe bu da bu news room with more hadley >> hey, good morning, brian. as you say, u.s. secretary of state mike pompeo making a last-minute trip to the gcced a saudi arabia and the uae as well no doubtedly discussing these upcoming sanctions on iran but also talking a bit about the price volatility we have seen over the last several days given the events of the last several weeks oil prices as much as 9% i had the chance to catch up this weekend with the u.s. special representative on iran brian hook i asked him not just about the sanctions but also where the administration has a plan to combat all of this price volatility he said one country is to blame.

listen in. >> iran is trying to drive up the price of oil by these attacks, i think, in the region. but we're doing everything we can to deter those attacks and to respond in a way. we are talking, on my visits here the secretary is also having these conversations about what sort of ideas do we have to enhance maritime security. that's a discussion i have been having here in the region. >> really important there. he was discussing not just oil prices but maritime security, brian. i thought that was very interesting considering the fact that there have been calls again and again not just for tanker escorts and whether or not those countries like saudi arabia and the uae should be paying for them but also if countries in asia should be paying as well. i also had the chance to ask him about these new sanctions. he broke that news to us exclusively on cnbc. listen in to what he had to say. >> in order to get iran to change its behavior, it's going to take a lot of pressure.

so, we're going to increase our sanctions on iran. we're going to continue with this foreign policy. iran has a large body of threats to peace and security. we have matched that with a very strong and robust foreign policy iran doesn't like it, but it's the right way that we're going to restore deterrence. >> so new u.s. sanctions on iran expected just hours from now the u.s. secretary of state making a last-minute visit to the countries here in the region the gcc countries of course saudi arabia, uae and big questions on the horizon about the conversations at the g there 20 and whether they're include the possibility of more participation, according to mr. hook, from countries in asia like china potentially in the persian gulf and whether that's going to take the form of a monetary contribution or if that's going to be more ships in this region. >> well, hadley, tensions are on the rise and now iran has threatened to enrich more

urani uranium. what exactly do we want the end game, that would ratchet down that rhetoric? >> well, i asked him that exactly, brian i said, hey, what is the red line here for the united states when it come tots a use of force? essentially what we heard from the president over the weekend what you know is when it comes to an appropriate response, he didn't think the death of 150 people was the appropriate response for an unmanned drone attack from iran but i asked him, where are the redlines he refused to draw them for me we're not going to talk about this in form of red lines but we are telling teheran again and again if you're going to attack us, we will attack back. >> hadley gamble in abu dhabi, thank you very much. elsewhere in the region, a local election in turkey sending a strong message to turkish president ta yep erdogan tens of thousands of people celebrating the results of the istanbul mayoral election as a candidate for the country's main

opposition party won the election was istanbul's second after three months after the official march votes were scrapped the lira rallied much more from nbc's exclusive sit-down with president trump. you'll hear his take on the federal reserve, iran and the american economy, plus congressional reaction and later, we are on all-time high watch for the dow industrials. the key catalyst that could take us over the edge and hitting a new record when "worldwide exchange" returns on a monday. futures up fractionally and we're back right after ts.hi

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♪ >> welcome back i'm brian sul vab. we're live on the scene of that massive oil and gas refinery explosion and fire in philadelphia the fire is now out. but the impact could be long lasting. coming up, how the big blast could impact what you are paying at the pump. stay with us lddexcng wl ilbe right back al: hi everyone! al roker here. as a guy with his own catchphrase, i appreciate that after 75 years smokey's only said...

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♪

welcome back and good monday morning. stock futures are higher dow futures up 22 points as we are on all-time high watch. president trump hitting on everything from the federal reserve to the stock market to iran, all part of an exclusive sitdown with nbc's "meet the press" and chuck todd. let's go to tracie potts in d.c. with more of the interview that's getting much attention today. good morning, tracie. >> reporter: brooirn, good morning. it gave us an idea of where president trump is headed next with these growing tensions that have so many across the world concerned. now it looks like the president wants to put even more of a squeeze on iran's economy. >> i'm not looking for war. >> reporter: avoiding war means putting the squeeze on iran's economy, the u.s. is expected to announce a new round of sanctions today. leaving the door open to talk about shutting down iran's nuclear program. >> if you want to talk about it

good, otherwise you can live in a shattered economy for a long time to come. >> reporter: president trump called off an air strike that the military says would have killed 150 iranians. retaliation for iran shooting down a u.s. drone. democrats agree it was the right move but urge caution. >> international response, shouldn't be the u.s. acting alone. >> reporter: secretary of state mike pompeo is in the middle east this week trying to drum up support. >> i hope that the iranians will understand that the world won't tolerate this. >> reporter: iran is blaming the u.s. military experts fear we could be inching toward war. >> my biggest concern is the president is running out of room, running out of options. >> reporter: and perhaps running out of time. and that's because iran is already announced that they will within days of enriched more uranium than they're allowed under that nuclear deal. brian? >> tracie potts in d.c. on the interview that's getting a lot

of attention tracie, thank you very much. >> sure. on deck here, we continue to hit the fallout from the explosion at the largest oil refinery on the east coast as bad as it was, it could have been much, much worse. what is hydro floeric acidand what is the risk we'll talk more about it plus, the best and the worst case scenarios for president trump's face-to-face with china's x jinping at the g20 summit this week a china expert will join us next. plus, trump fighting back, criticizing reports that he tried to demote fed chair powell earlier this year. futures are higher we're on record high watch and "worldwide exchange" is back after this short break your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish.

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"worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome back happy monday. thank you for being with us here on cnbc. we're live on the scene of the massive explosion at a refinery complex in philadelphia, the one literally just over our shoulder we'll talk more about what we know, what we don't know, the bankruptcy last year, the bizarre ownership structure and what happens now that large parts of the largest refinery on the east coast are now offline. a lot of questions we're here all day to try to get answers. but before we do that, let's get a check on this morning's other top news and headlines nbc's francis rivera is in new york with those. good morning. >> good morning to you, brian. we are following yet another round of wicked weather. in kansas hail that measured over 2 inches across rained down video shows the intense moments that it pounded the town of ellsworth. areas of kansas reportedly saw wind gusts over 100 miles per hour. south bend, indiana,

multiple sightings of a powerful tornado leaving behind a path of destruction. this day care center was deveerly damaged by the high winds. bicentennial celebration turned into a scary rescue mission. a hot air balloon crashed into a crowd of spectators. no one was seriously injured weather can be to blame. zer oh was the lucky number in north carolina the state lottery set a record payout to over 2,000 people on saturday after the winning numbers in a pick four game came back 0, 0, 0, 0 tickets sold for $1 will pay out $5,000 and tickets sold for 50 cents will pay out $2,500. those your headlines for a monday morning, brian. back to you. >> sometimes being unoriginal maybe pays off francis rivera, thank you. we are here live in philadelphia, pennsylvania, and just behind us is the philadelphia energy solutions

refinery that had that massive and dramatic explosion, of course, on friday. now the fire was indeed put out saturday afternoon, but as we zoom in, this is about as close as we're able to get, you can see, see the black edges above that oil tank, that is the refinery complex that was indeed on fire, the one that did explode. we say complex because this facility is considered one refinery but it's actually two in one the first one is the oldest refinery in the united states. it was built in 1876 atlantic richfield. the second one, built by gulf oil in 1926. they have subsequently been combined now, this refinery has perhaps the most bizarre ownership structure of any major facility in the country this is the tenth biggest refinery in america. representing about 330,000 barrels of oil a day or about 150 million gallons of gasoline and jet fuel and refined products per month this refinery went through a

bankruptcy last year when it came out of bankruptcy, the primary creditors, ft. worth texas hedge fund became the primary owners the minority owners carlisle group and energy pipeline company energy transfer partners now, the fire was indeed put out on saturday afternoon. and thankfully despite that incredible explosion, there were not many serious injuries. five workers here were treated on the scene now, the refinery is still running at reduced capacity. that exact capacity is not known, despite repeated requests by cnbc to get the update status on where the refinery is operating we have not heard back yet. we are trying to find that out now when both of these facilities are running at full capacity, they represent about 27% of area fuel production. so they are very important, although experts we talk to said so far the east coast does remain well supplied from a

gasoline perspective we did see wholesale gasoline prices rise on friday, but remember oil prices have also been coming up, so the concern here from new york all the way down to baltimore and d.c. is that double whammy, higher oil prices, iran tensions and now the explosion and subsequent fire at the largest oil refinery on the east coast. again, we are here all day trying to get more answers to what exactly happens to this more than 100-year-old facility behind us. in the meantime, let's get you caught up to speed on your markets and your money on this monday because will today despite all that everything else that's going on be the day the dow hits a new record high your money just zero .86% on the dow away from that record high futures are in the green, not up that much, but hey it's early. you never know what could happen the bond market, we continue to see money pouring into bonds lot of people speculating the bond market may be suggesting a

recession. ten-year note at 2.03% hey, bitcoin, i know, if you haven't been following the bitcoin story, it may be time you should because we're at 4,000 just a couple months ago 20 down to 4 and overnight bitcoin briefly traded above 11,000 for the first time in more than a year it has been an incredible run for bitcoin. joining us now to talk more about all of this and package it up as only he can, managing principal and cnbc contributor kenny, it's great to see you here is the thing. we have the trump/xi meeting at g-20 this week and continued iran tensions and the threats of more sanctions if you had to pin point which of those outcomes and situations was more important to the macro stock market, which one would it be >> well, you know, i would have said it was trump and xi and the g-20 meeting and u.s./china

trade talks, although after last week, after the whole iranian situation shooting down of the drones, blowing up of the oil tankers and now the suggestion by trump that he's going to impose major new sanctions against iran, i think today/tomorrow will be very important in terms of iranian story because the xi story doesn't happen until the end of the week along with more economic data. i think today and tomorrow is all going to be about what we hear the president say in terms of sanctions on iran and what that really means and then iran's response. see what oil does. see what energy does and i think that's what's going to drive the markets right now. >> but here is the irony, kenny, oil prices have gone up not only because of iran's tensions, that's a big part, but other aspects at play as well. isn't it slightly higher oil prices actually a good thing for the macro equity markets because energy stocks have been in a bear market for a while. they have been the dogs not only of the dow but the entire market

would an affirming of the oil and gas space maybe help out the whole complex? >> sure. absolutely yes listen, in the weakness in energy has provided a great opportunity for longer term investors to get seeing some strength in fact energy and oil markets is good what you don't want to see is a huge spike, right? you don't want to necessarily see it spike to 70 or $80 a barrel not saying it's going to g there at all look, it's in this trading range. the saudis and russia and opec start talking about what they're going to do to drive oil prices higher 65, trump tweets about how we need oil lower it's really stuck in this range. certainly the tensions around the mideast are not going to offer some support and help move higher energy stocks do overall better the market should find some support >> well, by the way, one week from today, next monday, might be the most contentious opec meeting in years because of everything that's going on with iran and the tensions between

their long-time adversary saudi arabia kenny, here is the amazing thing, you have reports that iran is shooting down drones, blowing up twin tankers. explosion and fire at massive east coast refinery behind where i stand right now and yet oil prices are still only in the mid $57 range. that says that this is a market that is very well supplied >> well, i think it is well supplied i don't really think there's a shortage of oil. i don't think that anyone should think, look, the u.s. -- we're now the largest producer of oil. we're an expert of oil now therefore i don't necessarily think -- i don't see the reason that oil should be at 80 or $85 a barrel unless, of course, the saudis and opec really start to cut production that being said, somewhere between 55 and $65 for oil feels and seems about right. >> the other thing is this, xi and trump this week at g-20 meeting june 28th and 29th in

japan. do you expect a deal and do you expect the market is expecting a deal, kenny, or are we just looking for not sort of an implosion of the sort of reconfigured talks we seem to be coming into? >> right i don't expect a deal at all i don't think they'll come up with a deal, sign seal and deliver it at all. what i think the market is expecting is movement. they want to see that the two have come together the two are trying to put their differences aside and are going to work on a deal. that will be what the market expects. if we don't get that, if we get trump stamping his feet and walking away and threatening to impose more sanctions, then i see you could see the frothiness in the market you could see that turn very quickly and we could watch and we have seen how quickly the market can turn. one way or the other, i think that the market and investors are expecting to see movement ahead and not a specific deal because i think there's too much

to talk about. >> amazing five-day period, kickoff to the talks in the g-20into the opec meeting next monday and tuesday. that will be a massive five days for our audience thank you for joining us. coming up, more on the high stakes talks that we just talked about between trump and xi jinping. we'll break down what's at steak. what are the best and worst possible outcomes of that meeting? we have a china expert. later what last week's massive refinery explosion here in philadelphia could mean for pump prices and for the energy infrastructure complex generally. stick with us, "worldwide exchange" will be right back with d fur u16owutesp

good morning and welcome back to "worldwide exchange" i'm brian sullivan we're live on the scene of the massive philadelphia explosion that took place on friday afternoon. the philadelphia energy solutions complex right behind us you can see remnants of that fire the complex is up and running, but just how much is being put

out of the largest refinery on the east coast of the united states remains an open question. we're here all day to get answers. well, speaking of questions, will they or won't they? it turns out they will president trump will meet with china's xi jinping in osaka japan at the g-20 late they are week the president saying he is looking forward to a, quote, extended meeting with xi at the summit all this as u.s. multinationals from wynn resorts to texas instruments continue to feel the pain from that trade war now joining us now is robert koon, long-time adviser to the chinese government and recipient of the china reform friendship medal and host of "closer to china. so, he is an expert and we're glad you're joining us robert, thank you very much. what would be the best case outcome, the best possible scenario from the xi/trump summit this week >> first of all, the double irony is first that the kinds of

demands the u.s. is making will be in the long run better for china and second the list of demands had largely been negotiated among the trade negotiators almost all of them before the, there was the disruption based upon the enforcement of those so given that and subsequent to the breakdown, there has been a hardening of positions in both countries, both the political leaders as well as the general public and this puts a lot of pressure on the xi/trump visit. happily president xi is strong enough and president trump is me cure yal enough to breakthrough that inertia that we currently have >> hold on, robert robert, let me jump in here because i want to push back at something you said at the beginning the demands the u.s. made would be ultimately good for china.

do you really believe china wants or is committed to the kinds of intellectual property reforms and outside enforcement that the trump administration wants? >> well, first of all, let's look at the list the first three or so do cluster around intellectual property intellectual property protection in china forced technology transfer and joint venture and cyber theft. we have to unpack them to see what they're like. intellectual property protection, this is essential for china in order to become a leading innovator in the world that's their goal to become -- to have indigenous innovation, become a world leader in all the major new technologies and for that to happen, you need intellectual property protection i have visited the intellectual property courts the new in shanghai and in beijing and these are really serious efforts. it has a long way to go, sure. but they are serious efforts

china needs that to develop their own innovation on forced joint ventures they passed a new law, the foreign investment law which now says those things are no longer necessary. cyber theft is a sensitive area has to be settled privately. so those issues are really important for china. but opening markets as well and prevents state-owned enterprise subsidies. these are all critical areas that would be ultimately better for china. although, for china's own developmental model, they do need some kind of state support. those are some sensitive issues. but you put your finger on the right place because enforcement is the key that's what made it break down the u.s. insisted on very strict enforcement and for china that was an insult against their dignity and their sovereignty because of the public exposure -- >> of course but it's also insulting for u.s.

companies to have their intellectual properties stolen, robert that's probably the bigger insult, microsoft and 90% of windows instillations on computers were pirated that's insulting as well. >> no question. >> the worst case scenario would be that both sides decide not to attend we still have a few days until they actually get there. but assuming that both xi and trump do arrive, what will be the worst possible outcome of an actual meeting >> well, clearly a signal that what we expect is that the presidents will signal that they will give their senior negotiators the marching orders to reach a deal. that's the best scenario and we will judge anything short of that to be -- to analyze that i don't think it's going to be difficult to analyze what happened because we're clearly not going to get a deal. they're not going to get a complex 150 page deal signed and

sealed in osaka. there's no chance of that. but what we will do is we will read the tea leaves of exactly what they say and the expectation is they will give their top leaders a mandate to get a deal done over a period of time anything short of that will know there's problems and that could be followed by tariffs and then a long term battle >> robert, appreciate your analysis and insight as somebody who has been there many times. robert, thank you very much. >> thank you. on deck, betting big a multibillion dollar casino deal reportedly now a done deal. a changing face of las vegas ahead. plus, if the bond market says that we're heading toward a recession, why is the stock market sitting near record highs? it's a good question, and we've got an answer ahead.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange" i'm brian sullivan live in philadelphia up to speed on some of this morning's top headlines, frank holland with your executive recap. good to see you. >> good morning. we'll begin with president trump taking aim at fed chair j. powell in an interview with nbc's "meet the press" the president says he never threatened to demote powell but says he has the power to do so if he wanted >> what he's done is 50 billion a month in quantitative tightening that's ridiculous. what he's done is he raised interest rates too fast. >> you worry he's going to hurt your re-election >> i think the economy is so strong we're going to bull through it, but i'm not happy with his actions, no i don't think he's done a good job. i think this, if he didn't raise rates, obama had very low rates. so obama was playing with funny money. i wasn't i'm playing with the real stuff. and big gaming news. eld rae doe resorts agreed to

merge with ceaser's in a cash and stock deal the deal is valued at roughly $18 billion including debt it's expected to be announced later today. and senators mark warner and josh holly are reportedly planning to introduce bipartisan legislation today that would require big tech companies to disclose the value of user data. the bill would force facebook, google and other major platforms to put a dollar amount on the personal data posted by their users. some estimates put that value between 5 and $20 each month brian, back over to you. >> frank, thank you very much. turning now to your big week ahead, what are the key things you need to watch for this week? well, look for a mix of housing data throughout the week obviously mortgage rates have come down dramatically given bond yields have fallen. look for housing data. believe it or not, we have big name earnings to get through as well you can see the names there. but of course the big focus will be on two things, number one, president trump's meeting with kpie that's president xi jinping

at g-20 later this week as well as u.s. secretary of state michael pompeo's big trip to the middle east to try to hunt for a fix to increase tensions with iran joining us now to talk more about it is director of global markets at fidelity investments. here is the very basic question you might have heard, the bond market seems to at least be implying or hinting that the economy is slowing down enough to potentially risk a recession. but yet the stock market is sitting at or near all-time highs. can you please square those two things for us? >> sure. good morning, brian. so the bond market, you know, 2% ten-year yield in a 3% economy yields have come down over 100 bases points over the past nine months or so clearly the bond market is getting priced for a recession, but i think what it is saying more is it's telling the fed it needs to cut and of course since last week's meeting the fed is

basically saying we hear you loud and clear and there's even some talk about maybe a 50 bases point cut in july but the market is pricing in three rate cuts or so and the fed is now saying, okay, we're kind of poised to go there if things get worse. and of course the stock market likes that because when you have a fed pivoting to an easing stance in an on going expansion and with very low probability of actually getting a recession, historically that's proven to be a very bullish recipe. and then if for some how we manage to get some sort of trade resolution on top of that, i'm not holding my breath on that if you did, then we get a potent combination of events that could drive stock prices higher while keeping bond yields low. it does remind me very much of the '90s, the '95 cycle or the '99 cycle, but it is a little bit of deja vu there >> yeah. well, the '95 cycle where we had

rate cuts as the market was going upturned out okay for a few years. we had a number of years left of that bull market run the '99 cycle you're in, i don't need to remind our viewers and audience what happened in 2001 tech collapse nasdaq implosion prolonged recession. i guess i just did remind them which of these scenarios is more likely could we still get a couple more years of a bull market stock run? >> i think we can. markets cycles are not static systems. they're dynamic and driven by things such as the yield curve and excesses in the system and right now we don't have a lot of excesses. corporate debt levels are high, but certainly household levels are not. financial system levels are not. we don't have a lot of those looming imbalances that we did in the '07 with the on set of the financial crisis

i like the '95 analog. clearly the economy has expanded into a late cycle mode and it can stay there for a while if the fed is sort of just in time with its response, it could be a cycle extender for sure. >> as you yourself have written, the british stock market should be, may be a good road map because with all the uncertainty around brexit, we have seen multiples in the british stock market come down you don't know what's going to happen you have to bring down the growth expectations yet we're in the middle of a multi-prong trade fight. the increased trade tension of course with iran fair to say a lot of uncertainty and yet we have seen multiples expand a bit here? >> well, so the ratio on forward-expected earnings peaked at 19 1/2 a year ago fell to 13 1/2 in december and is now back at 17 but you're -- you raise a good point. in the uk, they had their referendum on brexit in june of

2016 in those three years, basically nothing has happened, right? companies start sitting on their hands because they don't nope what the rules of the road are going to be. and so during that period the stock market has done all right. earnings are up. the p.e. went from 16 to 12. and in the u.s., i'm not expecting that exact scenario to unfold, but you could have a scenario where the market does well, earnings do well but as companies sit on their hands waiting for the rules of the road for china, maybe less happens there and investors want to get compensated and maybe you see some p.e. erosion which has already happened in some way but maybe we could see more of that. that doesn't mean the market goes down necessarily because if the earnings offset is positive then price kind of stays in the middle and i think that's not a bad road map for the u.s. here

>> thank you very much have a great day and a good week time now for your morning rbi. today maybe we'll call it rbo random but lucky because we're here in philadelphia outside of the philadelphia energy solutions complex. over the shoulder here, it's tough with the sun coming up, that's the refinery that set off that massive explosion by now everybody has seen that video. when you saw the size of the video and the subsequent fire, one would assume it would have been much worse. four workers, maybe five with minor injuries that's it. the best news of all and why we're going to call it rbo, random but lucky, despite that incredible explosion which was visible from space and felt by homes as far as 30 miles away, was that hydrofluoric acidwas not released into the air. what is that hf goes into mixing gasoline and gives you different ok teens it's dangerous in small doses. it could be deadly in large doses. so far what we know, no

hydrofluoric acid was released from that facility, one of only 50 refineries that use hf as it is known your rbi is rbl, 300,000 people within three miles of where we stand, no hf, maybe the best possible outcome we'll be here all day. that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, president trump preparing to slap new sanctions on iran. we'll get a live report from washington and show you the move in crude in those markets this morning as casino deals in the works. reports say that el dorado is going to buy ceaser's in a deal valued at more than $8 billion the countdown to the g-20 summit is on. we'll get you ready for president trump's meeting with president xi jinping it is monday, june 24th, 2019 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from new york

where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site right in times square, by the way, where a gentleman, did you see this last night. >> no. >> do you know what i'm talking about? >> i have no idea. >> was walking on a tight rope over times square right here. >> yes >> it happened last night. kelly evans is in. she did not see it becky quick is off maybe she stayed up late to watch. we'll show you what's going on ahead of the opening bell we're still three and a half hours away nasdaq up about 20 points. s&p 500 looking to open higher as well up close to three points higher we'll show you what's going on overnight in asia president xi and president trump will be meeting this week. you have green arrows across the board. european